The stock market thinks we have the worst behind us, see chart below, which shows that earnings growth is expected to bottom this quarter and then improve quite rapidly over the coming four quarters. This forecast will only be correct if core inflation moves quickly down towards 2%. If core inflation remains around 5% then the Fed will have to put additional downward pressure on demand in the economy and ultimately earnings. If core inflation remains sticky around 5%, we will likely remain longer in a period with high capital costs and low earnings growth. Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management
Stock ownership in the US is on the rise. 61% of people reported owning stocks in the latest Gallup poll, the highest % since 2008. After the global financial crisis and stock market crash, we saw a decline in ownership for a number of years, but that trend is now moving in the opposite direction.
The most predictive factor when it comes to owning stock? Incomes. The higher your household income, the more likely you are to own stocks.
4. Bank Lending Standards Tighten Back to Covid Levels
Dave Lutz Jones Trading REVENGE SPENDING– After two years of spending heavily on vacations and other experiences that they were deprived of during pandemic lockdowns, Americans may be on the brink of pulling back — a cool-down that could help slow inflation. The nation witnessed two years of red-hot “revenge spending,” the name economists and corporate executives gave to a spike in recreational spending and vacation splurging that followed coronavirus lockdowns. As demand rose, so did prices for airfares, hotels and other sought-after services.
But many of those price categories are now cooling. Hotel prices have recently climbed much more slowly on a year-over-year basis, and airfares fell in May, a report on Tuesday showed. If that trend continues this summer, it could contribute to a continuing slowdown in overall services inflation, something the Fed has been watching and waiting for, NYT Reports.
The Daily Stoic So much happens in life. There is so much happening. Forget macro events—there are dogs that get sick in the middle of the night. There are trips that need to be made to the store. There are unpleasant conversations to have. Bills that somebody has to pay. Dishes to be done. Hard decisions to make.
Most people’s reaction—especially when those macro events are stressing them out on top of everything—is to shirk. It’s to see if someone else can handle all that for them. It’s to try to get out of whatever can be got out of. It’s to resent even the idea of an obligation.
Remember, in a crisis Marcus Aurelius stepped up. In fact, the famous story about him is that he didn’t want to be emperor at all. He wasn’t sure he could do it. But the night Marcus was informed of the news, he had a dream. In that dream he had shoulders made of ivory. It was a sign: He could do it. His shoulders could bear the weight. Put the load right on me, he said to himself. And he bore it for the rest of his life.
Things are hard right now. They’re scary. They’re not your fault. But they are your responsibility. They are yours to step up and carry. Because you have the shoulders that can bear the weight.
Dave Lutz Jones Trading Below the surface, there are encouraging signs the rally has legs, even though few investors had much confidence in it until recently. Investor sentiment rose last week to the highest level in a year and a half. Market breadth, or the number of stocks participating in the rally, has finally widened beyond shares of big technology companies, WSJ notes
2. SPY and QQQ Hitting Next Level of Resistance
3. Amazon Running Up to 200 Week Moving Average
4. Cardboard Box Demand
The Daily Shot Blog Subdued demand for cardboard boxes suggests a deceleration in economic activity.
Millionaires are fleeing China at a faster pace as the post-COVID economic rebound fizzles.
China will see a net loss of 13,500 in 2023, up from 10,800 in 2022, the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report said.
Meanwhile, the US will see a net gain of 2,100 millionaires, up from 1,500 last year.
China will see a net loss of 13,500 high-net-worth individuals in 2023, up from 10,800 in 2022, according to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report.
The world’s second largest economy continues to lead the world in the number of lost millionaires, a trend that has been going on over the last decade, according to Henley.
“General wealth growth in the country has been slowing over the past few years, which means that the recent outflows could be more damaging than usual,” wrote Andrew Amoils, head of research at New World Wealth, in Henley’s report.
After China’s economy expanded strongly from 2000 to 2017, the growth of millionaires since then has been negligible, he added.
And in more recent years, bans by the US and other other countries on Huawei technology was a major blow for China, Amoils said, as was the worsening in international relations from the fallout over the coronavirus and tensions over Taiwan and Hong Kong.
The Henley report also comes as China’s post-COVID economic recovery has disappointed. First-quarter GDP growth saw a bounce from the prior quarter. But more recent data have pointed to slowing growth in retail sales as well as drops in home sales, industrial production and fixed-asset investment.
The yuan and Chinese stock indexes have tumbled this year, with some commentators calling the rebound narrative a “charade” and even predicting that China is headed for a “lost decade.”
Meanwhile, India is poised to lose fewer millionaires, even though it just topped China as the world’s most populous country and overtook the UK last year as the world’s fifth largest economy. This year, India will lose 6,500 millionaires on a net basis, down from 7,500 in 2022.
Among the world’s top millionaire gainers, Australia leads with a net addition of 5,200, up from 3,800 last year, followed by the United Arab Emirates with 4,500 and Singapore with 3,200. The US is expected to see 2,100 more millionaires this year, up from 1,500 in 2022.
“In general, wealth migration trends look set to revert to pre-pandemic patterns this year, with Australia reclaiming the top spot for net inflows as it did for five years prior to the Covid outbreak, and China seeing the biggest net outflows as it has each year for the past decade. The notable exceptions are former top wealth magnets, the UK and the US,” said Henley & Partners CEO Juerg Steffen.
Neuroscience research is revealing mechanisms underlying the purposes of sleep.
During waking hours, new neuronal connections are made. During sleep, less important connections are weakened.
This process allows for learning to occur the next day.
The purpose of sleep is widely regarded as a mystery yet to be solved. I have frequently heard laypeople, academics in other disciplines, and even sleep researchers say “Nobody knows why we sleep.” Recently I attended Sleep, the annual meeting of the Sleep Research Society and the American Academy of Sleep Medicine in Indianapolis and heard an invited address by Dr. Chiara Cirelli, a neuroscientist at the University of Wisconsin. The title was “The Burden of Wake and the Reasons of Sleep: How Sleep Promotes Synaptic Homeostasis”. In the presentation, Dr. Cirelli elegantly summarized some of what sleep neuroscience research has revealed in the last decade.
Her first point was that since we are relatively vulnerable when we sleep a large part of the 24-hour day, sleep must serve a very important function, or evolution would not have selected for it. Early humans had to hunt and gather food, find and build shelter, and protect themselves from predators and competing groups. Those activities consume a lot of time, so unless sleep served very important purposes, those who slept less would have an advantage. Yet sleeping for long hours of the night was maintained over the millennia. But until recently, scientists had only vague ideas about what exactly happens during sleep that is so beneficial.
Neurons in the brain are connected through synapses, the junctions that allow linkages of neural networks whereby signals are transmitted throughout the brain and onto cells in all parts of the body. During waking hours, new learning can strengthen connections through an electrophysiological process called potentiation. You can think of knowledge you have that has been acquired over long periods of time as a group of well-connected neural paths. When you learn something new, new paths are connected to the older, already-established paths. During the waking hours, your brain processes massive amounts of new information through the sensory systems. Some of that information seems trivial, such as remembering where you parked your car. But that memory (which is often weak!) has to be preserved at least until you reach the car. It establishes a connection to your memory of what your car looks like, a well-established “old” memory. The brain creates multitudes of these kinds of connections daily. During the course of the day, the connections can become “saturated” such that even though there are billions of neurons and trillions of connections among neurons, particular circuits can become overwhelmed. Everyone is familiar with the concept of “information overload” whereby new information is being processed too fast to accommodate it all.
Dr. Cirelli explained that during sleep, a great many synaptic connections are weakened so that connections are more available for new learning the next day. Continuing with the parked car example, the exact location where the car was parked is not needed again, so the connections made are weakened. In fact, if it were not, you might retain memories of hundreds of places where you have parked, leading to considerable confusion! Evidence is available from multiple independent labs conducting studies on animals and humans that show weakening through measurement of the processes in several ways: by measuring electrical potentials; assessing molecular changes; and observing structural changes. Furthermore, genetic research is revealing which genes direct these processes to unfold. If you don’t sleep, or if you sleep less than an optimal number of hours relative to your typical sleep period, learning may be compromised the next day. This body of research adds to that showing other benefits of sleep such as downregulation of emotional arousal and clearance of waste byproducts of metabolism.
You don’t have to be a scientist to understand that not sleeping at all or not sleeping well exerts a cost in terms of next day functioning — this is common cultural wisdom. This research is an example of science showing the “why” and “how” mechanisms and physiological processes that underlie that wisdom.
Lucky Seven for the Nasdaq-It wasn’t by much, but the Nasdaq rallied 0.14% last week and extended its streak of weekly gains to seven. That’s the longest streak of weekly gains for the index since November 2019. To find a longer streak, you have to go back to February 2018 when the Nasdaq had ten straight weeks of gains. As shown in the chart below, since the Financial Crisis lows in May 2019, there have now been seven different periods where the Nasdaq rallied for at least seven weeks in the row.
Looking at forward performance after a seven-week winning streak in more detail, the chart below shows the maximum drawdown for the S&P 500 in the three months after seven straight weeks of gains in the Nasdaq. Here again, it’s easy to see the large declines that followed the 2010 and 2012 streaks, but in the four other streaks, the S&P 500 never even pulled back 4%. In two of those periods, the maximum decline never exceeded 0.41%. For reference, the average ‘max drawdown’ over any three-month period for the Nasdaq since the start of 2009 has been 5.33%
3. Average Stock Dispersion Significant Jump 2020-2023-Blackrock
Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Refinitiv, June 2023. Notes: The chart shows the dispersion in Russell 1000 stock returns based on a 21-day moving average (dark orange line), average dispersion from July 2009 after the global financial crisis through 2019 (yellow line), and average dispersion from 2020 through June 8, 2023 (green line).
The average range of individual stock returns versus broad index returns, or dispersion, since 2020 (green line in chart) has jumped about 10 percentage points above the average from 2009 to 2019 (yellow line). We think that reflects the new macro regime and structural changes shaping returns. Forum attendees agreed the new regime of heightened volatility is playing out. We see supply constraints driving higher inflation in the new regime. Persistent inflation makes it unlikely developed market (DM) central banks will cut interest rates this year. The new regime presents central banks with a sharp trade-off between living with some inflation and crushing activity, as we’ve argued. That shift is in sharp contrast with the four-decade period of steady activity before 2020 known as the Great Moderation. Today’s environment offers new opportunities, in our view, thanks to market divergences and structural changes playing a bigger role.
Senior Economist to WisdomTree and Emeritus Professor of Finance at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
While last week was quiet for economic data releases, the S&P 500 entered into a bull market phase on Thursday, defined as 20% move from its low. Saying we are in a bull market makes it seem like the markets are going up. And indeed, once you experience a 20% move, the following year has been above average. But it is also very important to remember in two of the last three bear markets, we had 20% bounces similar to the one we just had, but then hit new lows.
During the great financial crisis in 2008-2009, the market rallied 20% off the low in November 2008 and then plunged to new lows in March of 2009. Similarly, after the dot-com bust in 2000, we rallied about 25% off the lows and then went to a new low right after that. This recent bull market move is no guarantee we are out of the woods from the downturn.
With that caveat, my feeling is that the October low will hold, but I remain cautious and do not think we have the start of a major up move here.
This week we have the important inflation data and the Fed decision. For someone who focuses a lot on the Fed, you’d think the combination of inflation, the Fed decision, and the Fed dot plot would be my prime focus this week. Rather, much more interestingly I will be watching Thursday’s initial jobless claims. Last week we had a considerable move higher in jobless claims—and it does not look like it was caused by similarly fraudulent claims from Massachusetts as the last spike was a few weeks back. Jobless claims are a notoriously volatile indicator. And seasonal adjustments could be responsible for some of the increase this week. It is critical to see how serious of a move we have in this series and if this turns into the downturn everyone has been waiting for.
I believe CPI will come in relatively tame, within +\- one tenth of a percentage point of expectations. We have had a drop in oil prices so headline inflation will look better than core inflation.
I expect the Fed to pause or skip hikes at this week’s meeting, but the headlines are likely to read that there was a hawkish dot plot. During the press conference, Chair Powell will make every effort to say the skip in hikes at this meeting does not mean the Fed is claiming mission accomplished. Hawkish narratives at the conference and dot plot should appease the hawks on his committee who would prefer continued hikes.
Despite Fed funds futures now pricing in near certainty of a hike in July–and no matter what the dot plot reads out or Powell insinuates, I would bet against any future hikes. We’re entering political season and there is already a ton of pressure not to create a deep recession. I expect a shallow recession that the market has arguably already positioned for. The NASDAQ is now selling for 30-times earnings, and the S&P 500 is selling for 20-times earnings. We have small and mid-cap equities selling for 14- and 15-times earnings, with value stocks at heavy discounts, pricing in and largely anticipating a mild recession.
We might not see much of a decline in the stock market even as the labor market deteriorates. The labor market weakening has political implications and would put a lot of pressure on the Fed, which does have a dual mandate to consider employment as well as inflation. That is why I am so focused on jobless claims this week. Is forcing 2 to 3 million workers out of a job worth an additional tick down in inflation? The Federal Reserve will have to keep re-evaluating this tradeoff.
After inflation normalizes, I expect the Fed to consider an increase its inflation target from 2% to 3%. During the heat of the inflation battle itself, it would be politically impossible to give up on its 2% target right now. But there is good theoretical motivation to move the target up from 2 to 3%. A decade ago, the normal and neutral Fed Funds Rate was over 4%, with 2% real economic growth and 2% inflation. A 4% neutral rate gave the Fed ample room to stimulate the economy into a downturn by cutting rates. But with demographic and productivity trends leading to slower growth, a lower neutral rate is warranted, and I think the neutral rate is heading to 2-2.5% or close to zero real. A 3% inflation target gives the Fed more room to cut rates when they need to stimulate the economy.
7. History of Unemployment Rate and Bull Markets Starting
Could be turned on its head due to Covid and shortage of labor??
Ben Carlson Blog Many historical market relationships have been turned on their head since the pandemic but there has been a clear correlation between stock market returns and the unemployment rate over the past 75 years or so.
These are the ensuing 1, 5 and 10 year average returns from starting unemployment rates since 1948:
by Ed Batista Historically, leaders achieved their position by virtue of experience on the job and in-depth knowledge. They were expected to have answers and to readily provide them when employees were unsure about what to do or how to do it. The leader was the person who knew the most, and that was the basis of their authority.
Leaders today still have to understand their business thoroughly, but it’s unrealistic and ill-advised to expect them to have all the answers. Organizations are simply too complex for leaders to govern on that basis. One way for leaders to adjust to this shift is to adopt a new role: that of coach. By using coaching methods and techniques in the right situations, leaders can still be effective without knowing all the answers and without telling employees what to do.
Coaching is about connecting with people, inspiring them to do their best, and helping them to grow. It’s also about challenging people to come up with the answers they require on their own. Coaching is far from an exact science, and all leaders have to develop their own style, but we can break down the process into practices that any manager will need to explore and understand. Here are the three most important:
Ask
Coaching begins by creating space to be filled by the employee, and typically you start this process by asking an open-ended question. After some initial small talk with my clients and students, I usually signal the beginning of our coaching conversation by asking, “So, where would you like to start?” The key is to establish receptivity to whatever the other person needs to discuss, and to avoid presumptions that unnecessarily limit the conversation. As a manager you may well want to set some limits to the conversation (“I’m not prepared to talk about the budget today.”) or at least ensure that the agenda reflects your needs (“I’d like to discuss last week’s meeting, in addition to what’s on your list.”), but it’s important to do only as much of this as necessary and to leave room for your employee to raise concerns and issues that are important to them. It’s all too easy for leaders to inadvertantly send signals that prevent employees from raising issues, so make it clear that their agenda matters.
In his book Helping, former MIT professor Edgar Schein identifies different modes of inquiry that we employ when we’re offering help, and they map particularly well to coaching conversations. The initial process of information gathering I described above is what Schein calls “pure inquiry.” The next step is “diagnostic inquiry,” which consists of focusing the other person’s attention on specific aspects of their story, such as feelings and reactions, underlying causes or motives, or actions taken or contemplated. (“You seem frustrated with Chris. How’s that relationship going?” or “It sounds like there’s been some tension on your team. What do you think is happening?” or “That’s an ambitious goal for that project. How are you planning to get there?”)
The next step in the process is what Schein somewhat confusingly calls “confrontational inquiry”. He doesn’t mean that we literally confront the person, but, rather, that we challenge aspects of their story by introducing new ideas and hypotheses, substituting our understanding of the situation for the other person’s. (“You’ve been talking about Chris’s shortcomings. How might you be contributing to the problem?” or “I understand that your team’s been under a lot of stress. How has turnover affected their ability to collaborate?” or “That’s an exciting plan, but it has a lot of moving parts. What happens if you’re behind schedule?”)
In coaching conversations it’s crucial to spend as much time as needed in the initial stages and resist the urge to jump ahead, where the process shifts from asking open-ended questions to using your authority as a leader to spotlight certain issues. The more time you can spend in pure inquiry, the more likely the conversation will challenge your employee to come up with their own creative solutions, surfacing the unique knowledge that they’ve gained from their proximity to the problem.
Listen
It’s important to understand the difference between hearing and listening. Hearing is a cognitive process that happens internally — we absorb sound, interpret it, and understand it. But listening is a whole-body process that happens between two people that makes the other person truly feel heard.
Listening in a coaching context requires significant eye contact, not to the point of awkwardness, but more than you typically devote in a casual conversation. This ensures that you capture as much data about the other person as possible — facial expressions, gestures, tics — and conveys a strong sense of interest and engagement.
Effective listening also requires our focused attention. Coaching is fundamentally incompatible with multitasking, because while you may be able to hear what another person is saying while working on something else, it’s impossible to listen in a way that makes the other person feel heard. It’s critical to eliminate distractions. Turn off your phone, close your laptop, and find a dedicated space where you won’t be interrupted.
Coaching conversations can take place over the phone, of course, and in that medium it’s even more important to refrain from multitasking so that in the absence of visual data, you can pick up on subtle cues in someone’s speech.
In my experience taking brief, sporadic notes in a coaching conversation helps me to stay focused and lessens the burden of maintaining information in my working memory (which holds just five to seven items for most people.) But note-taking itself can become a distraction, causing you to worry more about accurately capturing the other person’s comments than about truly listening. Coaching conversations aren’t depositions, so don’t play stenographer. If you feel the need to take notes, try writing one word or phrase at a time, just enough to jog your memory later.
Empathize
Empathy is the ability not only to comprehend another person’s point of view, but also to vicariously experience their emotions. Without empathy other people remain alien and opaque to us. When present it establishes the interpersonal connection that makes coaching possible.
A key to the importance of empathy can be found in the work of Brené Brown, a research professor at the University of Houston whose work focuses on the topics of vulnerability, courage, worthiness and shame. Brown defines shame as “the intensely painful feeling or experience of believing that we are flawed and therefore unworthy of love and belonging.” Empathy, Brown notes, is “the antidote to shame.” When employees need your help they are likely experiencing some form of shame, even if it’s just mild embarrassment — and the more serious the problem, the deeper the shame. Feeling and expressing empathy is critical to helping the other person defuse their embarrassment and begin thinking creatively about solutions.
But note that our habitual expressions of empathy can sometimes be counterproductive. Michael Sahota, a coach in Toronto who works with groups of software developers and product managers, explains some of the traps we fall into when trying to express empathy: We compare our issues to theirs (“My problem’s bigger.”), try to be overly positive (“Look on the bright side.”), or leap to problem-solving while ignoring what they’re feeling in the moment.
Finally, be aware that expressing empathy need not prevent you from holding people to high standards. You may fear that empathizing is equivalent to excusing poor performance but this is a false dichotomy. Empathizing with the difficulties your employees face is an important step in the process of helping them build resilience and learn from setbacks. After you’ve acknowledged an employee’s struggles and feelings, they’re more likely to respond to your efforts to motivate improved performance.
When you coach as a leader you don’t need to be the expert. You don’t need to be the smartest or most experienced person in the room. And you don’t need to have all the solutions. But you do need to be able to connect with people, to inspire them to do their best, and to help them search inside and discover their own answers.
@Charlie BilelloIt doesn’t appear to be. Looking out 1 to 5 years, average forward returns for the S&P 500 from the lowest 10% of $VIX levels (<12) were not only positive, but in many cases higher than the returns from all other $VIX levels (>12).
Zerohedge-Below are the top 10 EVs for 2023, ranked by their EPA combined driving range.
For further context, we’ve also included price. These values are for the specific trim that achieves the stated range. In some cases, more expensive trims are available but have a lower range (e.g. Tesla Plaid).
Model
EPA Combined Driving Range
Price*
Lucid Air
516 mi (830 km)
$138,000
Tesla Model S
405 mi (652 km)
$84,990
Hyundai Ioniq 6
361 mi (581 km)
$45,500
Tesla Model 3
358 mi (576 km)
$55,990
Mercedes-Benz EQS
350 mi (563 km)
$104,400
Tesla Model X
348 mi (560 km)
$94,990
Tesla Model Y
330 mi (531 km)
$52,990
GMC Hummer EV Pickup
329 mi (529 km)
$110,295
Rivian R1T
328 mi (528 km)
$74,800
BMW iX
324 mi (521 km)
$87,100
Note that the EV market is rapidly evolving, and the data in this table has a limited shelf life. For example, Rivian is releasing a battery option dubbed the “Max pack” which promises up to 400 miles, but is not yet EPA rated.
I’ve always taken a natural food-based approach, and much of my diet is inspired by a unique blend of two of the greatest food cultures in the world: Mediterranean and Asia. I call it the “MediterAsian” diet.
Both the Mediterranean region and Asia have areas known as Blue Zones, where people age better and are overall healthier.
Here are six staples of MediterAsian eating that can help you boost immune health and stay healthy:
1. Fruits
Apples:An apple a day might keep the doctor away, but three apples a day can help reduce body fat. They’re versatile, great for salads, and delicious as a snack or baked in a dessert.
Pears:Pears are an excellent source of dietary fiber (a medium-sized fruit has 6 grams) for gut health.
Pro tip: to find a ripe pear, hold the fruit by its base with one hand, and with the other, pinch the flesh at the bottom of the stem. If the flesh gives slightly, it’s ready to eat.
Soy: Soy is eaten as a bean, made into tofu, fermented, and can even be transformed into wine. It has been associated with lowering the risk of cardiovascular disease by 20% and diabetes by 23%.
Carrots: An ancient root vegetable that originated in Southwest Asia, carrots are a good source of dietary fiber for gut health. A half cup of grated carrot has 2 grams of fiber.
Mushrooms: Mushrooms contain a soluble fiber called beta-D-glucan, which stimulates defenses to grow new blood vessels needed for healing wounds. At the same time, it can prevent harmful blood vessels from feeding cancers.
3. Legumes
White beans: Beans are a nutritious food that can help reduce cardiovascular risk factors by lowering blood cholesterol levels. They also contain valuable nutrients like iron, zinc, magnesium and folate.
Lentils: Lentils are a classic legume in Mediterranean cuisine. A half cup of dry lentils contains 18 grams of fiber, which is more than half of the recommended daily intake for men and women.
4. Bottles and jars
Extra virgin olive oil (EVOO): EVOO is the most desirable form of olive oil. The “extra virgin” refers to oil that is not refined, and as a result, contains tiny bits of ripe olives. The oil and bits are the source of potent polyphenols that activate health defenses.
When I buy EVOO, I scan the label on the bottle to identify which olive varietals were used. Many are made from a variety of olives, which can taste very nice, but I prefer monovarietal oil, which is less likely to be diluted with cheaper oils.
Fermented bean paste: Stroll through the middle aisles of any Asian grocery store, and you’ll see many kinds of fermented bean paste. Made from fermented soy, they contain bioactives that fight fat cells.
5. Seafood
Salmon:Salmon is high in omega-3s, which get absorbed into fat cells and are metabolized. Then they create proteins that are released like cellular firefighters into the surrounding fat mass to extinguish the inflammation caused by fat.
Roe: If you’re exploring unique tastes, you must try the roe (eggs) of certain seafoods. Roe is naturally packed with omega-3s, so it takes remarkably little to get a major dose of healthy fats.
Sardine: Sardines are a time-honored seafood of the Mediterranean. They contain bioactives that can improve metabolism and lower blood cholesterol.
6. Liquids
Matcha tea: Matcha is a green tea known for its vivid green color. Studies have found that matcha can counter the metabolic effects of a high-fat diet.
Oolong tea: A study by the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed that drinking six cups of oolong tea three days a week improved overall metabolism.
1. Historical Data on S&P 500 Rallying 20% Off Low
What Happens when the S&P enters a new “Bull Market”? – 13 times stocks 20% off lows and a yr later higher 12 times and up 17.7% on avg. 6 months later up 10% on avg. 3 times made new lows, 2x in tech bubble and once in Financial Crisis, Ryan notes
2. Small Caps had First Big Outperformance of Year
The last few days have seen Small Caps up 7% and Nasdaq down 1%-Zerohedge
4. One-Quarter of Small Cap Companies Not Generating Enough Cash to Cover their Debt Service
Jack Ablin Cresset We estimate that about one-quarter of the Russell 2000 companies, representing nearly one million jobs, are currently not generating enough cash flow to cover their debt service payments. Unless interest rates suddenly turn lower, these companies will either default or face debt restructuring and the banks will have to write down the loans.
6. Lumber Makes New Lows as Major Homebuilders Make New Highs?
92% of Homes in U.S. are Wood Framed….this chart compared Lumber to Homebuilders ETF XHB…straight down.
7. Consumer Discretionary ETF Bullish Action
50day thru 200day to upside in XLY.
8. Netflix Closes Above 200-Week Moving Average
First close above in 18 months.
9. Global M&A 500 Deals to Less than 200
M&A activity has declined over the past two years, and this trend will continue, driven lower by central banks increasing the costs of capital as they continue to fight inflation.
Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, Partner
10. The Being Outside Vaccine-Scott Galloway
No single thing caused our loneliness crisis, and there is no one remedy. However, stepping outside is a step in the right direction. Being outside offers a wealth of positive benefits: It lowers blood pressure and heart rate, enhances immune function, and decreases the likelihood of diabetes and cardiovascular mortality. Exposure to sunlight increases testosterone levels in men, while trips to the park improve health outcomes and create resilience in children who’ve experienced trauma, abuse, and poverty. Spending two hours per week outside has been shown to significantly increase health and happiness. Some doctors prescribe time spent in nature. The Swedes have a word for this, friluftsliv, “living close to nature,” and they offer tax breaks for companies with policies that encourage it. The biggest threat to this lifestyle? The crowding out of the outside world by our devices, consumed mostly in the inside world.
