1. GOOGLE Exposed Stocks vs. Open-AI Exposed Stocks
Bloomberg
2. Will Elon Win Case Against Open AI Altman? Polymarket
Polymarket
3. NVIDIA Stock Breaks Out to New Highs After Big Sideways Move
StockCharts
4. EPS and Revenue Delivering
WSJ
5. Short-Term Speculation at Highs
Speculative options. “Animal spirits are back to ‘Red Hot’ – indicating an aggressive chase higher (one of the fastest speculative rushes in history).”
Macro Charts
6. History of 10% Gains in One-Month by XLK (tech etf)
Dorsey Wright There are 21 other instances where XLK gained more than 10% in a calendar month. In those prior instances, the fund typically cooled off, averaging flat performance over the subsequent six months and a modest 5.1% gain over the following year. However, previous instances occurred disproportionately during inflection points. One‑third of those episodes occurred during the dot‑com bubble period (Late-99 to Mid-02), with tech falling 30% or more each time over the next year, pushing averages meaningfully lower. By contrast, the remaining two‑thirds preceded highly bullish periods, averaging a 27.8% one‑year return outside of the dot‑com bubble. Regardless of whether the current environment ultimately proves to be bubble‑like or not, extreme months such as this tend to precede elevated volatility, both to the upside and downside. Given how extended semiconductors have become, the group may experience even greater volatility than the broader Technology sector.
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright
7. Softbank has Not Traded Above 2025 Highs in this Rally
Perplexity
StockCharts
8. IWC Microcap Stocks Break-Out to New Highs
StockCharts
9. 30% of Car Owners Who Traded-In Had Negative Equity
We’re looking at one of the biggest moments in financial markets in a really long time. Between the OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX IPOs, we’re going to be inserting almost $4 trillion in value into the markets, while, at the same time, adding zero dollars in earnings because all of them are burning billions in cash. SpaceX lost $5 billion last year. OpenAI is expected to lose $14 billion this year.
2. Software Group Below All-Time Highs….Only 22 Positive for 2026
Koyfin
3. ADBE Negative Now on 5-Year Number
Google Finance
4. DPZ Dominos Pizza Crushed the Market 2010-2020….Now 5-Year Negative Total Return
Google Finance
5. Emerging Markets +50% vs. S&P +31% One Year
YCharts
6. Emerging Stocks an Even Better Bargain After Best Rally in Years
Comparing forward earnings multiples, MSCI’s emerging index now trades at a 44% discount to the S&P 500 — the biggest gap since April 2025.
The discount isn’t a sign of weakness. Emerging stocks look cheaper versus the US market because analysts have lifted profit forecasts for emerging-market companies by 30% this year, dwarfing an average 10% upgrade for S&P 500. Earnings estimates represent the denominator in the price-to-earnings ratio, so when they climb, valuations drop — even as share prices rise.
Advisor Perspectives
7. They Chose Careers in the Trades and Still Wound Up With Debt-WSJ
As community colleges and union apprenticeships fill up, more students are turning to pricier training options for blue-collar careers
52% of Students Waitlisted in High School Vocational School.
WSJ
8. Condo Price Drops
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. In 31 bigger markets, prices of mid-tier condos through March have dropped between -12% and -31% from their respective peaks. In five of them, prices dropped by over 20%. The 27 most salient of those markets are shown in charts below, plus the City of Chicago, though it doesn’t belong on this list, but like other cities, it has a condo market where prices are back where they’d been 20 years ago.
Wolf Street
9. Iran’s Mosquito Navy Fleet 3k-5k Boats
Perplexity
10. Breathwork-Seth’s Blog
[Off topic, but I hope it might be useful]
Mindfulness can improve your life. So can stillness and spiritual grounding. This is not a post about that.
Breathing is an architectural challenge and a chemical necessity.
We breathe about 20 pounds of air a day (and if you’ve ever tried to weigh air, you can imagine that this is quite a bit.) Why bother?
The body is fueled by a series of chemical reactions, and most of them require the right balance of oxygen and carbon dioxide. The body is finely tuned to be aware of the available quantity of each, and reacts accordingly.
We evolved to have a particularly complicated system for ingesting air. We have two nostrils and a mouth. Thanks to speech and other requirements, the mouth is well suited to rapid inhalations and exhalations.
Spend three days breathing only through your nose. Even when you work out. Especially then. (Except swimming. I tried. It doesn’t work.)
And consider slightly taping your mouth when you sleep. Just a small piece of surgical tape, about a half inch across–right in the center. Put some lip balm on before applying so it won’t irritate you. Don’t do this if you have apnea or other issues, or a doctor who suggests against it. It’s a very small piece of tape, easily removed.
That’s it. Three days.
Nestor spends hundreds of pages explaining a huge range of benefits and volumes of peer-reviewed research. Some of it might be a bit overblown, some is surprising, but all of it makes sense.
But you don’t need a Ph.D. to determine how it feels after three days. It’s like discovering you’ve been using the wrong door to get into and out of your house.
I had such a good experience that I felt like it was worth sharing. Breathe through your nose, small sips, not gulps. You may find that you sleep better, snore less, run further, and are less stressed.
Seasonality. “Yes, the worst six months are coming up soon (May – October). But these six months have been lower only once the past decade and last year was the greatest Sell in May return ever (+22.8%). We are expecting another strong return this year.”
@ryandetrick
2. Semiconductor Sector Another Leg Up in Market Cap
Source: Topdown Charts Professional
3. Tech Dominance Now Global Stock Market Bull
The Kobeissi Letter
4. Tech Multiple Compression Chart
The Irrelevant Investor
5. 40% of Americans Earning 500k are Living Paycheck to Paycheck
Linkedin
6. Tim Cook Run at AAPL
Barron’s
7. Railroad were Much Bigger than Mag 7 Market Cap….60% of U.S. Market Cap
Howie Town
8. Bipolar Inventory U.S. Housing Market
REALTORS
9. How Much Money You Need to Buy Luxury Home in Each American State
Peter Mallouk
10. The Number 1 Pick in the NFL Draft Just Gave a Master Class in Emotional Intelligence. Here Are 3 Lessons
In a recent interview, Fernando Mendoza shows he was the NFL’s top pick not just because of his physical ability, but his emotional intelligence as well.
Patrick’s first question to Mendoza was: “If I would have told you last year you were going to win the Heisman, what would you have said?”
Mendoza’s answer was near perfect. He responded seemingly authentically and with humility: “I would have said, what are you on? That would have been out of the realm of reality.”
He followed that, though, with a more measured response, acknowledging that there were projections lauding his raw ability and potential. After which he found a way to credit his defensive coordinator and teammates.
“In reality, at that point a year ago, I had just made the move from Cal to Indiana and I was getting my butt kicked by the Indiana defense in spring ball, by that amazing Bryant Haines defense that proved to be the best defense in the nation,” Mendoza said.
The takeaway: This is a rare skill of emotional intelligence—the ability to balance humility (freedom from pride or arrogance) with modesty (recognition of one’s limitations) and confidence from healthy self-esteem (recognition of one’s strengths and abilities).
It’s healthy to recognize your strengths and what others appreciate about you. But if you recognize your weaknesses, too, and shift attention to others, you’ll build self-awareness and promote healthier relationships with those around you.
Focus not just on what you say, but also how you say it
If you watched last year’s college football national championship, you saw Mendoza pull off one of the most amazing plays in football history. On fourth down and five yards to go, Mendoza ran for 12 yards, fighting through several defenders, scoring what would become the winning touchdown.
Patrick wanted to know what the huddle before that play was like, and Mendoza didn’t disappoint. He described the huddle as “a very special place” and “football heaven,” before detailing exactly what happened.
“It’s fourth down in the national championship,” said Mendoza. “You have 10 other players, we’ve worked all this way through an entire season, creating as brothers, looking at you, seeing what’s the play call, how much does he believe in this play call by the way he says it, and does he have any other messaging. And, so, at that point, I was able to deliver the play call with complete confidence.”
The takeaway: This is another emotional intelligence skill that many must explicitly learn: The value in your communication is not just in what you say, but how you say it. Especially if you’re a decision maker, you have to believe in the decisions you make, and show that with your cadence.
Of course, your decisions won’t always be perfect. But if you don’t believe in them, how do you expect others to?
Channel emotion to improve
Mendoza is lauded, for not just his physical abilities but also his mental ones. But his ability to make quick and accurate decisions didn’t come by chance.
Two years ago, Mendoza recognized that he had a playing style similar to NFL quarterback Kirk Cousins’s. So, Mendoza decided to watch films of every single one of Cousins’s passes that season.
Every completion. Every incompletion. I can’t remember hearing about a quarterback who’s done this before.
“It was in my free time, and I love watching NFL ball,” Mendoza said. “Those experiences have helped me a lot, especially to get adjusted to the college games, and to see how quarterbacks process the defense.”
Takeaway: If you want to become great at what you do, channel that love and desire into work—and learn from the experts.
That goes for anything: your professional life and personal life. When you study the best, identify their (and your) strengths and how you can leverage them, along with the weaknesses and how you can improve on them.
If you’re looking to improve your emotional intelligence, take a lesson from the NFL’s newest number one pick: Balance humility, modesty, and confidence. Focus not just on what you say, but also how you say it. Channel your emotions into analysis and hard work.
If you do, you’ll make better decisions—and you’ll be making emotions work for you, instead of against you.
2. Global Semiconductor Billing Projected to Hit $1T
Global semis billings. “The [Semiconductor Industry Association] projects that the industry is on track to exceed $1 trillion in billings for the first time in 2026.”
Sean Ryan – FactSet
3. Semiconductor Monthly Flows
4. INTC vs. Semiconductor ETF SMH Before Last Nights Earnings …2026 INTC +81% vs. SMH +33%
YCharts
5. Intel Just Breaking Above 1999 Internet Bubble Highs
Google Finance
6. Software Stocks All Trading Together …80% Correlation…One Bad News=All Bad News
Sherwood Media, LLC
7. Total Electricity Generation
Semafor
8. Foreign Private Capital More in Treasuries than Central Banks…Sell America Total BS
Apollo
9. San Fran Rail System Crime Drops 41% and Workers Spent 1000 Less Hours Cleaning Up After Reducing Fair Jumping
The gap between tech’s price and forward PE drawdown is the widest its been in nearly 20 years of data.
This one shocked me.
Below you’re looking at the 52-week drawdown in the S&P 500 technology sector price (dark blue line) vs the 52-week drawdown in the forward PE (light blue line).
Chart Kid Matt
The lines typically move together. Makes sense, right? But look at the recent divergence.
The tech sector is currently in a 2% drawdown from 52-week highs, but the multiple is off a whopping 28%.
See the 26% spread in the bottom pane? That’s the largest spread I can find going back to 2007.
The only way tech is nearing an all time high with the forward multiple in a 28% drawdown is because the forward earnings are ripping higher.
That feels healthy to me.
3. AI Companies Weight in S&P 45%
AI vs. SPX. “The weight of AI companies in S&P 500 is close to 45%”.
