1. Hyperscalers Cash Flow vs. Capex-Lead Lag Report
- The four largest hyperscalers spent $416 billion on capex in 2025 and have guided to roughly $725 billion in 2026, while Amazon’s trailing-twelve-month free cash flow collapsed 95%, from $38.2 billion to $1.2 billion.
- Aggregate capex now runs about 3.9 times annual depreciation across the hyperscalers. Oracle sits at 8x. These ratios mean the eventual depreciation cliff is being engineered into earnings, not yet absorbed.
- AI-tied corporate bond issuance hit $121 billion in 2025, a 332% surge versus the 2020-2024 baseline. AI debt is now 14% of the JP Morgan US investment-grade index — a larger weight than US banks.
- Microsoft’s annualized AI revenue is roughly $37 billion against $97 billion of LTM capex — about 38% coverage. MIT’s Project NANDA finds 95% of organizations report zero return on generative AI. The demand side is not keeping pace with the supply side
Substack
2. Mag 7 Buybacks Disappear
Bloomberg
3. Average P/E Ratios Plummeting for Some of Mag 7
Luke Kawa
4. Kalshi Traders Betting Against NVDA Chip Prices-CNBC
CNBC
5. Open AI’s Financials $21B Operating Losses-Ed Elson
Prof G Media
6. Semi Shipments from S.Korea Momentum Continues
7. NFLX Closing in on -50% from Highs….Right at 200 Week Moving Average
StockCharts
8. July Positive S&P Returns for 11 Years in a Row
NASDAQ DORSEY WRIGHT
9. Dividend Kings-Companies Raising Dividends 50 Years in a Row
Barrons By Andrew Bary What the Kings lack are technology companies—not surprising since most big tech firms are less than 50 years old. That has contributed to an underperformance for the group since 2014, with the Kings returning 8.7% annually against nearly 14% for the S&P 500 index through the end of 2025. The big gap has opened up in the past few years during the tech-led bull run.
‘These are defensive stocks,” says Brian Bollinger, president of Simply Safe Dividends. ‘They’re 30% less volatile on average than the S&P 500.” The group has produced average annual dividend increases of 5% over the past 10 years.
Barron’s
10. SpaceX turns to bond market to raise capital, reports $100.8 billion cash
By Harshita Mary Varghese-Reuters
SpaceX employees cross the road as they go to work at the SpaceX facility in Hawthorne on the day of their company’s IPO, in Hawthorne, California, U.S. June 12, 2026. REUTERS/Mike Blake Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
June 22 (Reuters) – Elon Musk’s SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab turned to the bond market for the first time, capitalizing on a post-IPO momentum that has vaulted its cash reserves past $100 billion as the rockets-to-AI group ramps up spending.
Monday’s notes offering comes mere days after SpaceX’s IPO, signaling the company’s push to reshape its balance sheet by replacing short-term bridge financing with longer-dated debt, which can help it fund an ambitious and costly expansion into AI and next-generation rockets.
Its shares slid 9% in morning trading, falling for the third consecutive trading session.
SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq on June 12 after raising $85.7 billion from its initial public offering, making it one of the world’s most valuable companies.
Musk holds 82% of SpaceX’s voting power after the IPO.
“With Musk maintaining supermajority voting control through a dual-class structure, issuing bonds keeps economic ownership intact for existing shareholders without new share issuance,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of 50 Park Investments.
“This debt choice over additional equity clearly prioritizes avoiding further shareholder dilution.”
SpaceX has increased spending on AI infrastructure and the development of its next-generation Starship rocket, investments that have weighed on profitability despite strong growth at its Starlink satellite internet business.
Revenue rose 33% to $18.67 billion last year, though it reported a net loss after heavy spending and the integration of Musk’s artificial intelligence venture, xAI.
The company did not disclose the size or pricing terms of the proposed notes offering. The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes as well as to repay borrowings under its bridge loan facility and cover related fees and expenses, it said.
SpaceX held $15.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents at the end of March, according to its IPO filing.
Separately, SpaceX signed a deal with Reflection AI to provide additional computing capacity to the startup at Musk’s Colossus 2 data center, Reflection AI said in a post on LinkedIn.
The agreement is worth up to $6.3 billion, CNBC reported earlier on Monday.
Credit rating agencies assigned the company investment-grade ratings last week, signaling confidence in SpaceX’s financial stability as it moves forward with its costly AI plans.
Moody’s issued a “Baa1” and Fitch a “BBB+” rating, indicating that SpaceX’s debt is considered investment-grade and carries moderate credit risk, with sufficient capacity to meet its financial commitments.
Reporting by Harshita Mary Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Pooja Desai
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
