TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 4, 2026

1. The Mag 7 Are No Longer Momentum Stocks.

Sherwood


2. History of First Rate Hikes-Ryan Detrick

X – @RyanDetrick


3. Short Interest at Record Levels—Not Behavior Near Tops in Market.

X – @KobeissiLetter


4. Top 10 Has Shown Low PEG Levels in Past….Why?  Longer-Term Earnings Growth Estimates are at Highest Level Since 1995

P/E vs. PEG. “Despite the forward P/E, the PEG ratio in the top graph is cheap because the longer-term earnings growth estimate shown in the bottom graph is at its highest level since at least 1995.”

Daily Chartbook


5. Stocks vs. Inflation 50 Year Chart.

X – @PeterMallouk


6. Why Nvidia wants Hugging Face — and a bigger say in the future of AI-Business Insider

What does $12.9 billion buy Nvidia these days? A bigger say in what AI gets built and what it runs on.

Nvidia has acquired Hugging Face for $12.9 billion, giving the chip giant control of a platform that hosts open-source AI models. That lines up with Nvidia’s strategy, as it has been beating the drum about open-source AI models that anyone can use and build on.

Open models could stave off a future dominated by giants like OpenAI and Anthropic, both of which create closed, proprietary models. If top AI labs dominate the models being used and build their own chips to run them — as OpenAI is doing with Jalapeño — they could eventually cut Nvidia out.

“Open source is an important counterweight to closed platforms like OpenAI and Anthropic,” said Brad Gastwirth, global head of research and market intelligence at Circular Technology. “The more AI development stays open and fragmented across many models and developers, the more opportunity Nvidia has to remain the underlying infrastructure provider.”

There’s a more immediate payoff, too: selling more chips. Developers using models from Hugging Face have to decide which hardware and software to run them on, and owning the hub could give Nvidia more sway over their choices.

Spice Capital founder Maya Bakhai, who invested in Hugging Face while working on venture investments at NBA star Kevin Durant’s Thirty Five Ventures, said embedding Nvidia more deeply into developers’ workflows could also give it greater visibility into emerging use cases such as robotics.

Nvidia gets more control over open-source AI

Nvidia has been circling Hugging Face for years.

It joined a $235 million funding round in 2023, and it distributes its own family of open models, Nemotron, on Hugging Face. Last year, Nvidia proposed a $500 million investment in Hugging Face at a $7 billion valuation, which the startup rejected, the Financial Times reported.

Hugging Face said at the time it didn’t want a single investor wielding too much influence. That’s because one of its hallmarks is its openness, with models that run on competing chips and cloud companies, including AMD and Google.

That makes Nvidia’s acquisition a striking reversal, and it creates a tricky balance.

“The biggest risk is neutrality,” Gastwirth said. “Hugging Face has a lot of value because developers see it as an open platform. Nvidia would have to be careful not to undermine that.”

While Nvidia now has greater control over Hugging Face, it may have to use it sparingly to preserve the openness that makes the startup so valuable.

https://www.businessinsider.com/hugging-face-nvidia-deal-reshape-ai-landscape-2026-8


7. NVIDIA About to Break Out to New Highs.

StockCharts


8. New House Prices Drop Below Existing Prices First Time Ever

X – @Barchart


9. Russia Helping Iran Develop Supersonic Missiles

THE FINANCIAL TIMES


10. Why Your Brain Needs Nature

Psychology Today The emerging science of how our surroundings shape attention, stress, and cognition. Michiko Kimura Bruno

KEY POINTS

  • Being in nature may benefit our physiology, including autonomic and stress responses.
  • Nature may support brain functions, including attention, mood, and cognition.
  • Nature’s “soft fascination” may give our constantly directed attention a chance to recover.
  • Environmental neuroscience studies how our surroundings influence the brain.

We have all experienced it: stress at work. You are staring at your computer, deadlines mounting, stuck on a project. Taking a walk seems like a waste of time, but you decide to go outside anyway. Maybe there is a small park near your office or home. You breathe in the air, look at the sky and clouds, and notice some greenery; trees, grass, perhaps a few flowers. You hear a bird in the distance and feel the wind against your face.

And suddenly, you feel lighter. Your mood lifts. A random idea connects. You remember a coworker from a previous project whom you can ask for help.

Or, even better, you go for a hike on the weekend. The crisp air, the smell of trees, the chirping of birds, the sound of a stream all feel refreshing. Your worries begin to recede. 

And the restorative effect lasts even after you come home and turn the computer back on. Sure, your legs are sore and your muscles a little tired, but mentally, you feel refreshed, ready to face the task that seemed so daunting before.

The Emerging Field of Environmental Neuroscience

Marc G. Berman, author of Nature and the Mind, studied this exact effect of nature on our brain in a scientific fashion. 

In a now-classic experiment, participants first completed a cognitive task called the backward digit span, which requires them to listen to a series of numbers and repeat them in reverse order. Then, they took a walk outside for about an hour. One group walked in the Arboretum, in a trail following a river through the evergreeens, and the other, in the busy part of the town, navigating intersections along the commercial storefronts. When they returned, they repeated the same test. The participants who walked in nature significantly improved their scores, but those who did the urban walk did not. 

Later, the researchers switched the routes, so the same people served as their own controls and the result was the same: nature walk improved attention and memory, but urban walk did not. The walking was similar. The people were the same. What changed wasthe environment.

The researchers suggested that nature captures our attention gently, without demanding it. Urban environments, in contrast, are filled with stimulation that demands our attention, such as traffic, signs, people, and potential hazards. Nature, they suggested, gives our directed attention a chance to recover.

Berman is now considered to be one of the leaders of an emerging field, environmentalneuroscience, which studies how features of our environment influence the brain, including our attention, cognition, mood and stress. In retrospect, this seems obvious. Our brain is the interface between our inner world and the world outside us. Why wouldn’t the environment in which it operates matter?

Environmental Neuroscience Taps Traditions Like Shinrin-Yoku (Forest Medicine) 

The idea that nature can help our health is not new. Research from another tradition suggests that nature’s effects may extend beyond cognition into the body itself.

In Japan, interest in the health effects of shinrin-yoku, or “forest bathing,” has grown, alongside an emerging discipline known as “forest medicine.” Shinrin means “forest” in Japanese, and yoku means “bath.” It is specifically noted that Shinrin-yoku is not exercise, or hiking. Rather, it is the act of being in nature, bathing in the forest atmosphere and connecting with it through our multisensory system of sight, hearing, taste, smell and touch. 

Studies have associated forest exposure with lower cortisol levels, changes in autonomic measures, improvements in mood, and changes in measures of immune function.

One intriguing hypothesis involves phytoncides, volatile organic compounds released by trees. Laboratory and small human studies suggest that these compounds may contribute to some of the physiological effects associated with forest exposure, including changes in natural killer cell activity. But they are unlikely to explain the whole story.

Why Nature Helps our Brain

Recent studies using tools such as functional MRI and EEG are beginning to show that natural and urban environments engage the brain differently, including networks involved in attention, stress, emotion, and self-referential thought.

According to Attention restoration theory (ART), “attention” is a finite resource, that can be depleted by constant stimulation. 

Modern life constantly demands directed attention: ignore the notification, answer the email, switch between windows, remember the deadline at work—while also scheduling the dentist appointment, arranging the car safety check, and figuring out the family vacation. 

Our attention rarely gets to be off duty. Nature captures attention differently. A cloud moving, leaves rustling, water flowing, birds calling—these attract us without demanding that we concentrate on them.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/breaking-good/202608/why-your-brain-needs-nature

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 2, 2026

1. Hyperscalers Plus NVDA Debt Issuance Equals 70% of New Treasury Long Duration Borrowing

Marketwatch Hyperscalers are issuing so much debt that they may be causing an imbalance at the long end of the yield curve. JPMorgan Asset Management’s Michael Cembalest calculates that the debt issuance by the five hyperscalers, plus Nvidia, equates to 70% of new Treasury long-duration borrowing. He adds that the Treasury twist program of buying back long-dated securities while borrowing more from the short end of the curve pales in comparison to the Fed’s program from 2011 and 2012 — at some 25% of that size — while the outstanding stock of Treasurys with maturities longer than 10 years has risen from $1 trillion to $5.8 trillion.

MarketWatch


2. Chevron Breaking Out to New 5 Year Highs Investing $7B in Venezuela

StockCharts


3. Dell Shares Sideways All Summer After Big Run Up…Needs to Get Above $510 for New Highs.

StockCharts


4. Returns for August

Capital Spectator


5. Leveraged ETFs Have Been a Losing Trade for Retail Investors.

X – PeterMallouk


6. Leveraged ETF Volume in Korea Slowdown

The Irrelevant Investor


7. Shein IPO Value ¼ of Highest Venture Valuation in 2022

Google


8. 41,000 More Satellites Coming to Low Orbit-WSJ

WSJ


9. Hanwha Shipyard Korea Produces One Ship a Week vs. Philadelphia Hanwha One Ship Per Year

Google


10. The Upper Middle Income Group in Now America’s Largest 31%

Andy Kessler WSJ –

Rahm Emanuel smartly told Politico, “If you’re trying to be a party that recruits people, working class people that go paycheck to paycheck, socialists have been repulsing them.”

Plus, we’re barraged with false analysis that the middle class is hollowing out. The largest income group is now the upper middle class. The upper middle was 10% of families in 1979. It’s now 31%. Really? Is that from exploitation? Heredity? Heck no. More like hard work. And dual incomes. The middle class is getting richer. Why is that bad?

Moreover, the income ranges of the upper middle class are wide enough to drive a truck through, from $109,000 to $326,000 for a family of two and $154,000 to $462,000 for a family of four. Whether any of these folks feel upper middle class is a different matter—it depends on geography. Worse, they have a target on their backs from the politics of envy.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/whos-working-class-anymore-47e87ac0

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 1, 2026

1. NVDA The Cheapest Mega Cap on Forward P/E Basis

Santoli Marketwatch The analyst corps that covers Nvidia is mostly adoring. The consensus price target for the stock implies 50% upside from here and a $7.5 trillion market value. They are merely chasing the remarkable revenue and profit growth, unprecedented at Nvidia’s scale, while staring incredulously at its compressed valuation.

The stock is below 20-times next-12-months forecast earnings and below 15 on next fiscal year’s projection. On free cash flow, it’s easily the cheapest mega-cap on offer.

CNBC

My read here is that the market will simply refuse to pay a premium for what could soon be peak profit growth until the company proves through a longer cycle that it’s not a hit-driven hardware maker.

There is precedent from recent history that might be relevant. Apple in the years following its initial iPhone-release profit bonanza saw its valuation slide down a similar slope (in an early-2010s market that itself was less expensive than today’s). 

CNBC

The knock on Apple for years was that tech-device margins always evaporate, smartphones would commodify, etc.

Demonstrating smooth, reliable upgrade cycles, fostering a services-based revenue stream and returning enormous sums of capital through buybacks and dividends slowly got Apple clear of the nagging valuation discount.

To the point where, now, Apple fetches an arguably rich premium, near a 30 P/E, for its defensive properties against the swings of AI sentiment and spending.


2. Why?  See Below..Breaking Down the Open AI-NVDA Deal.

WSJ


3. XLV Healthcare ETF Hitting New Highs…But Reversing Off Longest Period of Underperformance Since Internet Bubble.

Trendlabs Let’s review what this chart means.  When the line is going up, healthcare is outperforming the rest of the market. When it’s going down, healthcare is underperforming.  Earlier this year, healthcare vs the S&P 500 fell to levels we hadn’t seen in roughly 25 years.

You have to go all the way back to around the turn of the century to find healthcare this beaten up compared with everybody else. Then something interesting happened: It stopped going down.  Not just anywhere, either. Healthcare stopped falling relative to the market right around the same area where it stopped falling 25 years ago.  Either way, after one of the longest periods of relative underperformance we’ve seen from this sector, buyers are showing up again.

TrendLabs


4. AI is Showing Up in Bottom Line Not Just Top Line.

Interestingly, as Goldman’s Chris Hussey points out, while it has been tempting to think that this structural AI-driven EPS growth cycle is peaking for several quarters now, 2Q26 S&P 500 results illustrated how this particular technological development is driving bottom-line results, not just topline.

ZeroHedge

Utilities’ drop-off in the percentage of stocks above their 50-DMAs has been dramatic, but not unprecedented. At 9.7% on Friday, the reading is down 87.1 percentage points from 7/24, and one of several dips below 10% in the last year.


5. Utility Sector Less than 10% Of Stocks Trading Above 50 Day Moving Average.

Bespoke Investment Group


6. The U.S. Never Had a Recession with Profit Growth Positive Year Over Year.

Baird Strategas, BEA, Macrobond as of Q2 2026


7. Mortgage Rates Sit at Historical Average.

X – nickgerli1


8. German Most Common American Ancestry

Visual Capitalist


9. How many students eat free or reduced-price school lunch?

USA FACTS Data from the Agriculture Department shows that, in 2025, about 73.0% of the lunches served at public and nonprofit private schools participating in the National School Lunch Program were free or discounted. Those lunches fed 22.1 million students. Who’s eligible, and how does participation vary by state?

  • Students from households at or below 130% of the poverty line qualify for free lunches from the National School Lunch Program. Students from households making between 130% and 185% of the poverty line qualify for reduced-price lunches.
  • The number of students receiving subsidized lunches grew 4.8% from fiscal year 2023 to fiscal year 2025. Program participation grew the most in Colorado (up 29.1%), Michigan (up 16.4%), and Minnesota (up 12.9%). 
  • Data from the National Center for Education Statistics shows the rates at which state student bodies qualify for the program. In the 2022–2023 school year (the latest NCES data available), Mississippi had the largest percentage of eligible students (99.7%), followed by Nevada (81.5%) and New Mexico (75.2%). Montana (18.7%), New Hampshire (23.4%), and Delaware (25.2%) had the lowest percentages.

USAFacts


10. Flow, In Depth

Psychology Today One way to channel a flow state is to stop trying and just be. Margaret Smith Ph.D.

Key points

  • A flow state entails alignment of goals, energy, attention, feedback, and so on.
  • When we learn what we can control in our sport and direct our attention there, we make flow possible.
  • Flow is a pleasant experience. Athletes crave it. But there’s plenty in sport that’s unpleasant.
  • Opening what’s unpleasant and beyond our control can offer energy that’s deeper than flow.

Have you ever participated in something awesome? Awesome in the root sense of the word—full of awe—in which you gave of yourself as a participant or as a witness (or both), and in doing so, you allowed the boundaries of your conscious mind to dissolve as you connected with something greater: humanity, history, nature, or the divine?

In sport, this sort of experience is often discussed as flow, but the kind of flow I’m talking about transcends the field of play and/or the performance space, be it athletic, artistic, or otherwise.

Carl Jung called such experiences numinous, from the Latin numen, divine will. In a numinous experience, which might be delightful, terrifying, or both simultaneously, we surrender any efforts at control to something larger than ourselves. We let the divine, however you choose to conceive it, flow in.

Flow in sport performance literature (Csizkszentmihalyi, 1975/1990) has to do with performance and engagement. Flow is conceived of, in the literature, as a psychological state with measurable structural conditions: the balance between challenge and skill (sometimes depicted as an inverted U), clarity of goals and purpose, and action and awareness. Things are maximally ordered, and all is aligned: task, skill, focus, feedback, and so on.

The literature presents flow as something secular and comprehensible. And there’s good reason for this: those of us who support athletes—whether as researchers and scientists, as coaches, counselors, or service-providers—want to help athletes control what they can control, and we want to help athletes highlight what they do have control over so that they can put their focus there. This is what makes flow possible in the first place.

But when you witness an athlete truly in the current of a flow state—when you are an athlete allowing yourself to ride the current of a flow state—you’re a part of something sacred. There is soul. That soul is immeasurable. And it may not always be pretty or pleasant: it might be vast and fearsome.

In his later work, Csikszentmihalyi explored this vastness, writing about autotelic experiences—things done for their own reward rather than for money or status—and autotelic traits—qualities of people who worry less about what others think, allowing themselves instead to be driven by curiosity and awe.

Where flow is a well-operationalized performance concept with indices that seek to describe its contours and complexities, the numinous is more about meaning than performance, and about dissolution that may be unsightly.

There’s a lot of talk in sport and in the sport performance literature about resilience and grit. There’s less talk, at least in the sport performance literature, about terror, dread, and dissolution. And let’s be clear: terror, dread, and dissolution are not an efficient path to a podium (or an efficient path to any place).

But we do athletes a disservice when we point them, relentlessly, toward efficiency and alignment. (We do ourselves, as humans, a disservice when we point relentlessly toward efficiency and alignment!) Social media, mass media, and funding entities overwhelm athletes with massive demands for “narratives” that are readily digestible for a large audience.

Even if such narratives are linked to intrinsic values (“I love my sport, I love my teammates, I want to share this love”), when the demands are externally driven (e.g., express a need for “content” or a “statement”), there is a neurobiological cost that is distinct from that of an action a person chooses for themselves. The demand for narrative coherence on schedule and for external consumption spikes cortisol and can contribute to burnout.

Burnout is a kind of coming apart quite different from Jung’s numinous. Burnout is about depletion, and often depletion over time, whereas Jung’s numinous experience is more like a moment of awe. When we’re burnt out, those moments of awe may be harder to access: we’re looking down at our phones, or we’re accomplishing tasks, and in so doing, we miss the shooting star (or some other unsayable thing that transcends the language of the everyday).

So, if you’re headed back into your fall sport season with your training plan and your to-do lists, wonderful. But also—and write it into the plan, or don’t! — make space to play and space to be afraid. Find people (or other living creatures) who welcome your playfulness and who can witness your fear. You can have your goals and work to align attention and energy toward them, and you can feel the air on your skin, the breath in your body, and the vibration in the atmosphere that might be divine will.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-athletes-nervous-system/202608/flow-in-depth

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 31, 2026

1. Anthropic and OpenAI Growth Rate Since 2023

Frontier lab growth. Anthropic and OpenAI’s “growth rates have been both extremely rapid and remarkably robust since 2023: together, they tripled in 2024, and then grew more than fourfold in 2025. And this year they’ve already grown by 3.5x … these labs are growing faster from a higher baseline.” 

DAILY CHARTBOOK


2. Since ChapGPT Launch NVDA Hasn’t Missed

In fact, since ChatGPT launched in November of 2022, Nvidia hasn’t missed estimates once. 

fiscal


3. AI Data Center Build Out–Private Equity Deal Making in Building Trades

AI data center boom sends PE into the trades

Private equity is following the AI data center boom into the trades that build and equip facilities.

PE activity in construction and engineering hit a record 529 deals in the second quarter, up 56.5% from a year earlier, according to estimates in PitchBook’s Q2 Construction and Engineering report. Deal value slipped slightly from the prior quarter as investors prioritized smaller deals over marquee platforms.

Dealmaking has concentrated in specialty trades needed for site work, electrification and cooling.

PitchBook


4. Earnings Growth vs. Off Balance Sheet Debt

 As a result, Morgan Stanley projects free cash flow to turn negative for Amazon and Google in 2026 and for Meta as soon as next quarter, even as reported earnings remain strong. In sum, the massive AI buildout is increasingly being funded through leases, contractual commitments, and debt rather than internally generated cash flow, highlighting the growing financial

Zach Goldberg Jefferies


5. September Seasonality

Dave Lutz Jones Trading Tomorrow brings a new month – Here’s what the average September looks like since 1950 for the S&P 500.  Things are ok early, but by Talk Like a Pirate Day (September 19th) is when the trouble starts.


6. Biotech 2026

Chart of the Day

Biotech is having a year. (chart via YCharts) (ft.com)

Abnormal Returns


7. DJT Trump Media Stock Update…No Bounce

Google


8. U.S. Workers Wages Below Inflation


9. College QB’s vs. NFL QB’s

Front Office Sports


10. The Global Sleep Economy is $585M

  • Sleep Monitoring Apps Market size is expected to be worth around USD 17523.7 Million by 2033 from USD 3376.7 Million in 2023.
  • In 2024, the global sleep economy reached USD 585 billion.
  • As of 2019, 80% of adults across select countries desired to improve their sleep quality.
  • As of 2020, 67% of adults in India were satisfied with their sleep, the highest among countries.
  • As of 2020, 35% of respondents used television to unwind, 26% had used it before, and 39%never used it.
  • In 2020, 14.5% of adults in the United States reported having trouble falling asleep most days or every day in the past 30 days.
  • In 2018, the majority of people across India believed they were getting enough sleep, with 68%of respondents agreeing with the statement.
  • In 2022, 21% of U.S. adults used open windows or air conditioning as a sleep aid.

Media Market.us

To learn more about this report – request a sample report PDF

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 27, 2026

1. Record U.S. Debt But Interest Costs are In Line with History

The Irrelevant Investor


2. Salesforce CRM Trading Up After Earnings…Still -40% from Highs

StockCharts


3. Remaining SpaceX Share Releases-Morningstar

Morningstar


4. Crypto Back to Greed in Sentiment Indicators

CoinMarketCap


5. Venture Backed 244 New Space Deals Thru June 2026


6. Total Amount Wagered on Sports 25x Increase in 7 Years

The total amount wagered on sports in the US has increased by 25x over the past 7 years.

@Charlie Bilello


7. Canada’s Exports Per Country

Semafor


8. Gun Related Deaths Per State

USA Facts In 2024, Hawaii had the lowest rate of gun-related deaths nationwide: 3.7 deaths per 100,000 people. Mississippi had the highest rate: 28 per 100,000.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention notes that complex factors, including poverty, racial or ethnic inequities, and other socioeconomic conditions, influence differences in gun-related death rates between states.


9. Biggest American Family Office Investors

Linkedin


10. Top 10 Primary Industries for Ultra High Net Worth

Ritholtz