Topley’s Top Ten – July 22nd, 2019

1. Private equity firms poised to sign record number of deals

The Bain & Company data showed multiples for companies being bought in the US and Europe are close to 11 times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.

2.$4 Trillion Was Committed to Private Equity in Last Decade.

$1 Trillion in Dry Powder

Number of Deals Set Record But Amount of Money Raised in Venture Still Below 1999 Internet Bubble.

3.Returns Needed by VC Funds.

A 10-year fund needs to return 3x the fund size

We agreed VCs need to earn 12 percent return a year, right? Most funds, while only actively investing 3-5 years, are bound to 10 years. Many newer studies are showing that 12-14 year funds are more accurate for today, but let’s stick with 10 just to give the VCs a fighting chance. That annual 12 percent rapidly grows, showing the power of compounded interest. Let’s see the math:

Don’t forget Pareto: 80 percent of returns come from 20 percent of startups

Facts of life are that startups are hard. Breaking even is hard. Profits are hard. Keeping profits growing year over year (YoY) is even harder. Out of 10 companies, only two will really explode and IPO/M&A, giving our dear VCs some of their money back. The rest, as we’ll see, will fizzle out and die — or have a small liquidation event, which is pretty much the same.

4.Bond Bullish Sentiment Near Extremes.


5.History of Low U.S. Treasury Rates.

American Funds.

6.Buffet Indicator-Using Whilshire 5000 to GDP Back to 1999 Highs.

Market Cap to GDP: An Updated Look at the Buffett Valuation Indicator

by Jill Mislinski, 7/2/19

7.Technology Stocks Make New Highs in Relative Strength Versus Other Sectors.

Bespoke Investment Group

 While the sector has been a market leader for some time, it has finally erased all of its underperformance from the month of May and is the only sector where relative strength is at a new high.

One contributor to the sector’s strength recently is semiconductors. From its highs in April to the May lows, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) nearly reached bear market territory on an intraday basis falling 19.8%.  Since then, the SOX has rallied 18.9%, and while it is still shy of new highs for the year, it did close on Thursday at its highest level since 5/6.

8.The Best Performing Stock of Decade Beating All FANGs

Dominos sees first hiccups in earnings…sideways for one year without making new highs.

9.As Rates Around the World Drop Toward Zero…Money Moves to Precious Metals.

Everyone talking Gold…Silver Holds Bottom Turns Up.

10.How To Speak With Purpose

Making your words more value-adding.

Moirah Isabelo


not gonna lie; I was once a part of the Twitter echo chamber. I used to think I was so good at discourse since my angry Tweets and super long threads on the pettiest things gained clout. I really thought I was making a difference by standing up to the things I thought should be called out — turns out I was just contributing to a big whirlwind of Notice Me, I’m Angry.

I’m still on Twitter now, but I’ve learned since then how to keep what I say value-adding and not just one more angry sentiment shared by one more angry centennial with WiFi. I’ve also realised that these things, although effective when used in an online context, have also influenced the things I say in real life — and believe me when I say that it’s gotten so much easier to get my point across when I’ve taken the following into consideration:

Does it still need to be said?

The first thing I take into consideration is if I’m literally going to be addingany value to the conversation by saying something. If someone has already said it in a way that I think has covered everything I needed to say as well, that’s enough for me. It’s always good to add ideas or a fresh perspective to something that’s on the table, but if you’ll just be repeating what someone else has already said with nothing to really build upon it just for the sake of having something to say, then what’s the point?

Have I looked at all its angles?

Especially if it’s something that’s brought about strong emotion, I stop myself from immediately reacting to things before I’ve thought it through at least a little bit. Is there a perspective I’m missing?

It can be difficult to discern this on your own, so I’ve also learned that phrasing things in the form of a question works as well. Asking to be educated about other takes on the matter before responding to it declaratively allows for me to learn more about an issue first in an instance where I could have acted like the authority on something I didn’t really have a lot of prior knowledge about just because of something I’d read or heard.

Does it just spread anger?

Being angry has its merits; revolutions are built on anger and the desire to make things better. It’s the make things better part that I used to forget.

I believe there’s such a thing as constructive anger, which is a means to an end; it’s fuel to keep an idea going until people can improve on that which they were angry about and make it actually mean something. That anger is good. It’s something that has the potential to be channeled into something productive.

On the other hand, there’s destructive anger, which doesn’t really do much other than what it’s named for. It can be petty, and it’s rarely directed into anything meaningful. This is the anger we should stay away from.

Before responding to anything with anger, I’ve learned to make sure that it’s constructive rather than destructive. If I’m just adding my voice into a whirlwind that’s gonna bring nothing but negativity into the world, I’d rather not, especially when there’s an alternative to the whirlwind that could actually make something happen in the end.

Am I stepping on someone’s humanity?

Unfortunately, this question is here because I’ve been on the wrong side of its answer. I thought I was trying to be funny while keeping things relevant; even if my general argument had a point, it was overshadowed by how poorly I phrased the initial statement because I’d turned it into something that made light of someone’s misfortune. Not only was it a horrible thing to say to somebody, it was also a waste of attention when I could have gotten my point across in a more positive way.

This is generally an easier question to answer, but it’s one of the most important ones. No matter how great your argument is, if it’s stepping on someone’s humanity, it needs to get reframed.

Does it contribute to a goal?

What exactly am I saying this for?

This is the most important one. Someone once told me not to waste time on things that don’t contribute towards your personal goals. She had a point; I was involving myself with too many things that took my attention which had nothing at all to do with what I wanted to do with my life. Know what it is you want to do and stick to it; there’s no better way to ensure that you’re consistently working towards your goals and not straying into unnecessary distractions.

Applying this to the things I say, whenever I speak out on something, I try to make sure it’s in line with the things I believe in and the things I want to be doing. If it doesn’t contribute directly to a goal, I try to at least make sure it contributes to something else that’s equally meaningful; otherwise, it’s just a waste of energy.

So, just to recap:

  • Does it still need to be said?
  • Have you looked at all its angles?
  • Does it just spread anger?
  • Are you stepping on someone’s humanity?
  • Does it contribute to a goal?

Asking these questions won’t magically make everything you say purposeful, but being mindful of these things before speaking out is definitely a good start.