Topley’s Top 10 – September 09, 2021

1. Forward Price/Earning Ratio FANG+ vs. Cyclicals

Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley Marketwatch By Christine Idzelis

2. U.S. Equities Outperformance Over International Since May

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading

3. Uranium Breakout

URA Uranium ETF 3x from Covid bottom….Breakout on volume

4. TikTok Overtakes You Tube on Average Watch Time

Chartr blog–TikTok users are now spending more time watching content than YouTube users are, according to a new report from App Annie. According to the data the average American (Android) user is watching almost 25 hours a month on TikTok, more than the ~23 hours a month the average YouTube user squeezes in. In the UK TikTok is even further ahead, with the average TikToker spending 26 hours a month on the app, ahead of a 16 hour average for YouTube users.

Quick dopamine hit, plz

Those comparisons are more interesting when you consider that most TikTok videos are somewhere between 15 and 30 seconds (although the maximum is up to 3 minutes). That suggests that the typical TikTok user is quite happy to sit and watch somewhere around 200 different 15 second videos every single day, compared to say a handful of YouTube videos that might run 10+ minutes. How far can the “short-form” format be pushed?

5. Only 20% Gulf of Mexico Gas Production Back Online

Bloomberg-Kevin Crowley and Sheela Tobben  Only about 20% of Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production is back online after Hurricane Ida battered south-east Louisiana, marking an even slower comeback than in the wake of Katrina.

More than a week after the Category 4 storm made landfall, about 79% of the region’s offshore oil output and 78% of gas production remains shut-in, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. By comparison, less than 60% of oil production and just 40% of gas output was still offline this long after Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Many in the energy industry were expecting Gulf of Mexico production to return faster than refining capacity, but now “it seems that it may be the other way around,” said Rebecca Babin, senior equities trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management.

No Hurricane Has Hit U.S. Energy Markets Quite Like Ida Has

6. Big Price Change Disparities within Inflation Index


7. $923B in Refinances.

From Barry Ritholtz The Big Picture Blog

8. U.S. House Flipping Smallest Since 2003

WSJ By Ryan Dezember  Wall Street Can’t Get Enough House Flipping

9. Women now make up almost 60% of college students—an all-time high

Fast Company—The perceived lack of return on the cost of a college education and fatherlessness are cited as reasons men increasingly forgo higher education.BY MICHAEL GROTHAUS

The most recent data shows that female students make up the majority at colleges across the nation, reports The Wall Street Journal. The publication examined data from the nonprofit research group, the National Student Clearinghouse, and found that for the 2020–21 academic year 59.5% of college students were women—that’s despite overall college and university enrollment falling by 1.5 million students over the past five years.

Other notable points gleaned from the National Student Clearinghouse’s data on the higher education gender gap:

  • For the 2021–22 school year, 3,805,978 women applied to college compared to only 2,815,810 men.
  • When only private four-year colleges are taken into account, females made up 61% of the student population for the 2020–21 school year—an all-time high.
  • While higher education institutions have 1.5 million fewer students today than they did five years ago, men make up 71% of that decline. This is despite men making up 51% of the U.S. population.
  • By 2018, 65% of women who had enrolled in college in the year 2012 had a college diploma. That’s compared to only 59% of men.

The Wall Street Journal says that in interviews men have cited the high costs of college and the lack of return on that expense as one of the reasons they may forgo a college education. Social scientists say increased fatherlessness and video games may be obstacles that affect men more than women when deciding whether to pursue higher education.

Women now make up almost 60% of college students (

10. Great Leaders Attract Great Talent

December 24, 2020 by Dan

Guest post from
Susanna Camp and Jonathan Littman  

As a leader, you shape the ideas, provide the direction, set the goals. You’re great at focusing the journey and laying a course, especially when winds are uncertain. It can be a long, strange trip indeed – and your success depends on attracting the right talent.

Entrepreneurs, corporate executives and managers know from experience that the best teams sport a rare
mixture of friction, freedom and alignment. Diversity and complementary skill sets are key. So how do you assemble a great team?

We spent many years interviewing and writing about talented people and teams for our new book The Entrepreneur’s Faces: How Makers, Visionaries and Outsiders Succeed. Our biggest takeaway? Talent comes in many different flavors, and the best startups and companies recognize the benefits of building a kind of superhuman tensile strength in their teams. 

We call these talents archetypes. We’ve met so many entrepreneurs that we can usually identify someone’s type in a few minutes. How do we know? They master challenges with a characteristic approach, and echo the habits of renowned innovators and entrepreneurs. What’s perhaps most valuable about understanding someone’s type is how their behavior plays out in the dynamics of a team. We all know the conflicts that upend teams. Dueling leaders or visionaries throw obstacles in the path to success. The opposite happens when you achieve superior compatibility. A human-centric approach to designing high achieving teams begins with filling out your squad with a healthy cross-section of talent and mindsets. And that starts with learning to recognize patterns.

In The Entrepreneur’s Faces, we present ten archetypes.  When you build your team, make sure you have a good mix. Here are the top seven types leaders need to know.

Step One: Start with the
idea generators

 1. The Outsider: This is person who finds novel opportunities in industries and markets you might not normally target. They master the “beginner’s mind.” Defy the experts.  We believe every team needs at least one Outsider. The global crisis has made this role even more essential. When trends and habits change overnight, the Outsider is even more attuned to dig up emerging possibilities.

2. The Visionary: The future is coming, and it helps to have someone on your team who sees its first. This type brings a different kind of focus, based on their uncanny ability to see months and years ahead. What makes them so valuable is that they are practical. They map “from now to then.” They understand how the future will build on
present realities, and start taking key steps to get there. 

3. The Accidental: This may sound surprising, but you want someone on your team who will run with ideas that seem long shots.Google and many other firms have officially recognized this entrepreneurial type with a 20 percent or 10 percent rule, allowing staffers to pursue their own project ideas on company time (this has led to Gmail, Google Maps, and Google AdSense, among other G-Suite products). Accidentals bring passion to your company and that energy can be contagious. The Accidental infuses a project or company with authenticity.

Step Two: Round out the team with the problem solvers and doers

4. The Maker. It’s key that your team has someone with an aptitude at finding new ideas and opportunities.
But you need Makers to put them to the test. Makersdive right in. They find a way to do an experiment or a test. They’re great at designing prototypes to provide quick feedback. And they learn fast from small, inexpensive

5. The Collaborator. Every leader could use a few Collaborators. They excel at  analyzing how everyone and everything fits together. Collaborators keep their own ego in check, knowing they’ll  rise farther by connecting others and bridging ideas. They are the glue connecting the whole team.

6. The Evangelist:  Even the best of products and services need a story to catch fire. Evangelists bring an uncanny ability to fan interest. They’re naturals at creating the story behind the product, and know how to strike just the right points to touch hearts and move minds.

7. The Athlete:  This is the type that loves a contest and a challenge. Athletes relish preparing for the… unexpected. During tough times you couldn’t ask for a more robust, versatile staffer. They love to work. Adapt, recover, pivot is their mantra. Athletes figure out the connections between seemingly diverse activities, building new processes and opportunities on the fly. 

Smart Choices Make Strong Teams

Who you choose depends a lot on the kind of team you want to create. There can be a world of difference between a startup of four or five individuals and a corporate squad of ten or more. You’ll also want to consider where you stand on the seven-stage journey we call the Entrepreneur’s Arc. Are you just getting started at the Awakening and Shift? Midstream, approaching the Launch, or hitting do-or-die time, at the Test.

We think you’ll find these archetypes and this team question of diversity and compatibility valuable. Building out your team starts with self-awareness. To learn more about all ten types and take our diagnostic quiz, please visit our website at

Of course, share the results with your friends and networks!

Jonathan Littman and Susanna Camp are the authors of The Entrepreneur’s Faces: How Makers, Visionaries and Outsiders SucceedJonathan Littman collaborated with IDEO on the bestsellers The Art of Innovation and The Ten Faces of Innovation (more than 650,000 copies sold worldwide in 12 languages). The author of ten books, five of his works have been optioned for films. His award-winning journalism has appeared in Playboy, the LA Times and Forbes. Follow Jonathan on TwitterSusanna Camp is the Editor-in-Chief of A journalist specializing in emerging technology, she was an early team leader at Wired magazine, and has also been on the staff of MacworldPCWorld and Outside magazines. Follow Susanna on Twitter.