TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 07 2024

1. Semi’s vs.Software-Market Ear Blog

2. Chips Act Grants By Company

3. Stocks Strongly Linked to Bond Yields vs. History

WSJ By James Mackintosh  The link to bond yields is also split, with the average stock more strongly linked to bond yields—rising when they fall, and vice versa—than any time since 1999 over a 100-day period. The gap between this correlation and that of the ordinary S&P, which has a much weaker link to Treasury yields, is unprecedented in data back to 1990.

Aside from AI, I think this is best explained by corporate profits and interest rates, and to a lesser extent concern about the economy.

The Big Tech stocks that dominate the market sit on huge cash piles, while the biggest companies chose to lock in low interest rates for a long time by refinancing their bonds before the Fed began raising rates in 2022. Smaller companies tend not to have cash piles on which to earn fat savings interest and have more need to issue bonds to raise cash. The smallest don’t even have access to the bond market, one reason the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies has lagged so far behind the S&P this year, eking out a gain of just 1.6%.

4. HIMS Stock Post Weight Loss Supplement Announcement

HIMS post $200 a month weight loss compound pharmacy replacement

5. Starbucks Held 2022 Lows

SBUX bounced at 2022 lows.

6. Neurotech Growth

7. Vacancy Rates for Commercial Real Estate

From Irrelevant Investor Blog

8. More N.Y.C. Rentals Are Available. But Can You Afford One?

NY Times By Michael Kolomatsky

9. Update on Mortgage Payment Cost….But Rates Dip Below 7% This Week


Mortgage rates dip below 7%. ‘Expect them to modestly decline over the remainder of 2024,’ Freddie Mac says-Aarthi Swaminathan

30-year mortgage rate fell on the back of reports of a slowing U.S. economy

Mortgage rates dipped below 7% in the latest week as the U.S. economy showed signs of slowing. 

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.99% as of June 6, according to data released by Freddie Mac FMCC, +4.08% on Thursday. 

It’s down 4 basis points from the previous week — one basis point is equal to one hundredth of a percentage point. 

A year ago, the 30-year was averaging at 6.71%.

The average rate on the 15-year mortgage was 6.29%, up from 6.36% last week. The 15-year was at 6.07% a year ago.

Freddie Mac’s weekly report on mortgage rates is based on thousands of applications received from lenders across the country that are submitted to Freddie Mac when a borrower applies for a mortgage.

10. Buying Freedom

Jonathan Clements  |  Jun 1, 2024

IF 20-SOMETHINGS ASK me for financial advice, I suggest getting a job right out of college and saving like crazy, so they quickly get themselves on the fast track to financial freedom.

If 60-somethings ask me for advice, I advocate a phased retirement, seeking part-time work in their initial retirement years and, if they enjoy it, perhaps keeping it up into their 70s.

Yeah, I know, I sound like a real killjoy. My advice raises an obvious question: Is there ever a time when we should cut ourselves some slack and not have a job?

Let me start with this: If you have a burning passion—perhaps to establish yourself as an artist in your 20s or to commit yourself to religious study in your 60s—you already know what you need for a fulfilling life. Everybody else’s opinion, including mine, is of little import.

But what if you don’t have a calling? It’s worth keeping five key ideas in mind:

First, in crass economic terms, adult life is about using our human capital—our income-earning ability—to amass financial capital, so one day we no longer need to rely on our human capital. This “no longer relying on our human capital” is what non-economists call retirement, and it often takes three or four decades of saving and investing to accumulate enough.

Second, beyond paying for retirement and other goals, it’s desirable to amass money because it provides a sense of financial security and it gives us the flexibility to lead our life as we wish. If we sock away a moderate amount of savings early on, we’ll remove one of life’s biggest stressors.

Third, most of us aren’t very good at anticipating what our future self will want. Maybe our greatest desire will be to retire early. Perhaps, in our 40s or 50s, we’ll want to swap into a career that’s less lucrative but more fulfilling. Or maybe we’ll be happy to persevere with our current job. It’s hard to know what we’ll want, which is another reason to save diligently starting early in adult life. The larger our nest egg, the more options we’ll have.

Fourth, our focus often shifts as we grow older. We become less motivated by the prospect of pay raises and promotions, and more focused on doing what we personally care about. With any luck, once we have a better handle on what we really want, we’ll get the chance to pursue those passions more fully during a second career or once we’re retired.

Finally, most of us enjoy striving toward our goals. To be sure, we imagine that the greatest happiness will lie in achieving those goals. But in truth, it’s the striving that offers the great pleasure. This pleasure is captured by the notion of flow, those times when we’re engaged in activities that we’re passionate about, we find challenging, we think are important and we feel we’re good at. At such moments, we can become totally absorbed and lose all sense of time. We should design our life—including our retirement—so we enjoy frequent moments of flow.

The five ideas above help explain why we should save early in life to prepare ourselves for later, when we might want to change how we spend our days. But that still leaves one question unanswered: Why, come retirement, should our days necessarily involve working part-time?

The short answer is, it isn’t necessary. Unless you don’t have enough saved, there’s no need to work part-time in retirement. But I think it’s an idea that deserves more attention. Today, retiring as early as possible is considered a badge of honor, and continuing to work later in life is viewed as somehow offensive to the whole notion of retirement.

But as I’ve argued before, there are all kinds of reasons—financial and otherwise—to continue earning money through our 60s and into our 70s. It can feel good to be a productive member of society, plus retirement can be a whole lot less financially stressful if we still have a little money coming in. What about those savings we earlier amassed? Even if we keep earning money, we’ll likely still find plenty of uses for our savings, including travel, helping family members, supporting our favorite charities and perhaps paying long-term-care costs.

I’m not saying that working part-time in retirement is the right choice for everybody. But if there are activities you find fulfilling, and you can make a little money doing so, why not?

Jonathan Clements is the founder and editor of HumbleDollar. Follow him on X @ClementsMoney and on Facebook, and check out his earlier articles.

Buying Freedom