Topley’s Top 10 – January 24, 2023

1. S&P Technical Levels

S&P 4th a couple technical points…run up to these resistance levels going back to September of 2022…..See blue 50day approaching 200day to the upside

2. High Yield Bond ETF (HYG)…Third Run Up to Resistance Since Mid-2022

3. Stock Prices Historically Bottom 6-9 Months Before Earnings Reach Lows

Dave Lutz Jones Trading Bloggers note Historically, stock prices bottom 6-9 months before EPS reach their low as multiples start to rise reflecting Fed cuts and accommodative policy ahead. 

4. Growth Sectors Combined Total Market Cap Ran Right Up to 1999 Top

Callum Thomas Chart Storm-Techy Sector Top:  Definitely different from the dot com bubble in many respects, but definitely also some excesses that needed to be unwound. 

5. Fintech Theme ETF -63% Correction from Highs

6. 70% of Chinese Household Net Worths are in their Homes

CHIR Chinese Real Estate ETF….70% Bounce off lows

7. Tech Best Month Since July

8. 25-54 Year Old Men Not In The Workforce

Scott Galloway Blog

9. Polarization Chart Per Country

Visual Capitalist

10. Seth Godin Blog Three more questions

Pronouncements are more common than ever.

It might be an insurgent announcing a way to change the government, a CEO with a bold new plan or an entrepreneur seeking funds. Or perhaps it’s a pundit or a critic, hard at work. Pronouncements are bold, definitive and dramatic, but they also seem to defy common sense.

If you’re actually proposing something thoughtful and practical, perhaps you could answer three questions:

  1. And then what happens? After we take this action, after you shut down that agency, eliminate that division or launch this new project, what will happen after that?
  2. How will that work? What are the mechanics involved, the ones that don’t suspend the laws of physics or organizational behavior that will support this new way forward?
  3. Why? Can you explain, beyond your reality-suspending confidence, why the system will respond to your approach?

It’s entirely possible that this is precisely the change we need and the change that will work. But when the pronouncer refuses to answer the questions, it should give the rest of us pause.