Topley’s Top 10 – December 13, 2021

1.Massive Performance of Top 5 Market Cap Stocks in S&P

“The S&P 5“  No that’s not a typo, this chart shows the “S&P 5“ — i.e. the top 5 stocks (…what it looks like if you just held the top 5 stocks: rebalancing monthly). Funnily enough it looks like the top 5 stocks are up 5 x over the past 5 years

Source:  @MichaelKantro  From Callum Thomas Weekly Chart Storm

 https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-sp500-chartstorm-12-december-2021-callum-thomas/?trk=eml-email_series_follow_newsletter_01-hero-1-title_link&midToken=AQFjhnSMpoKQvw&fromEmail=fromEmail&ut=2RSoCGtGYrVG01


2.U.S. Leads Again-10 Years of Outperformance vs. International with Spread Widening in 2021

@Charlie BilelloUS stocks are once again besting most of their global peers, up 27.1% year-to-date versus a 6.8% gain for the average country ETF.

Data via YCharts

The incredible run of outperformance by the US is now more than a decade long…


3.One Reason U.S. Rates Stay Low—U.S. Rates vs. International…Spread/Difference

On My Radar-CMG Wealth.

One last note on interest rates courtesy of my friend Mark Grant. As you look at the next sovereign debt yields, ask yourself which offers the better return and then think about where the money is going to flow. Take a look at just how much more attractive the US 10-year Treasury is vs. much of the developed world. This dynamic likely keeps somewhat of a lid on higher rates (until inflation and debt restructure come into play):

Source: Tullett Prebon via FactSet (the -185.7 is the spread between the U.S. yield and German yield)

https://www.cmgwealth.com/ri/on-my-radar-a-game-of-chess/


4.Another Look at Margin Debt…..Vs. Free Cash Balances

Zerohedge-One way to look at “leverage,” as it relates to the financial markets, is through “margin debt,” and in particular, the level of “free cash” investors have to deploy. So, for example, in periods of “high speculation,” investors are likely to be levered (borrow money) to invest, which leaves them with “negative” cash balances.


5.Asset Classes and Correlation to Inflation

From Barry Ritholtz The Big Picture Blog

https://ritholtz.com/2021/12/weekend-reads-499/


6.Four items in the family budget Contributing the Most to Inflation

Over the past 12 months, prices have risen 6.8%, the largest gain since 1982. The bulk of the gains have been in four big items in the typical family’s budget: Energy, shelter, vehicles and food. These four items represent about 61% of consumer purchases, but account for 81% of the inflation we’ve experienced over the past 12 months.

Gas, trucks, housing and food account for the vast majority of price increases over the past year

This chart shows the contribution of each item to inflation recorded over the past 12 months. Energy goods and services, for example, accounted for 30% of the total price increases.

MARKETWATCH

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-is-running-rampant-in-the-u-s-heres-where-it-is-and-isnt-11639160777?mod=home-page


7.Rapid Rise of Shein Shopping App with Gen Z Shoppers

Faster fashion

Gen Z has a new favorite shopping app — Shein.

The company, founded in 2008 in China, has exploded into the world of fast fashion, with Google data showing it’s surpassed other brands like H&M, Zara and ASOS in terms of search interest. It’s also held the second spot in the iOS App Store Shopping category for much of this year, even overtaking Amazon briefly.

Shein x TikTok

Shein makes the world of fast fashion, pioneered in the late 90s by Zara, H&M and others, look glacial. “Fast fashion” meant that designs from fashion shows and runways could make it into stores in just a few weeks. Shein takes this a step further. If a top or garment design goes viral on TikTok, Shein can ramp up production almost instantly thanks to its tight control of production, and relatively small initial batches of items. That supply chain, coupled with super-low prices and endless virality on TikTok, is a powerful feedback loop.

The sheer scale and speed of Shein’s operations are quite hard to get your ahead around. Its website has a feature that lets you filter which products arrived on the site by which day (there are no physical Shein stores). 8,895 products were added yesterday9,634 were added the day before.

Secrets and sustainability

Shein reportedly racked up more than $10bn of sales last year, but otherwise relatively little is known about the company, its operations, its owners or how sustainable its production is. Its supply chain is impressive, but not very transparent.

www.chartr.com


8.Housing Affordability Index—Hot Areas Like Nashville, Houston, and Phoenix Still Affordable.

John Burns Real Estate This chart shows the % of income the median income household would need to afford the median-priced home in an area.

While our clients in Nashville, Houston and Phoenix bemoan how expensive those areas have become, they still look really cheap to people willing to relocate there

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/


9.Social Media Consumer Fraud Sees Dramatic Growth During Pandemic

Philadelphia Inquirer

https://www.inquirer.com/business/facebook-instagram-online-shopping-scam-fake-stamps-20211212.html


10.8 Hidden Health Effects of Chronic Stress

Physical reactions to upsetting times are not uncommon.
KEY POINTS- ANDREA BONIOR PH.D.
  • Anecdotally, many medical providers report increased cases of things like dizziness and tooth grinding as people suffer higher stress levels.
  • Stress can lead to hair loss, often because the stress response pushes follicles into the resting phase.
  • During times of prolonged stress, muscles may maintain a state of hypervigilance, leading to soreness.

The mental health toll of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to increased awareness about just how important emotional wellness is — and how easily it can suffer during times of sustained stress. As depression and anxietyrates rise, more people are talking openly about their struggles with mood, which can lead to more people seeking help.

What is not always part of the discussion in this context, however, is the physical toll that stress can take on the body. We may be very familiar with weight gain and sleep problems, but less aware that certain new physical ailments we are experiencing may be exacerbated by —or even originate from — a prolonged stress response. Anecdotally, many medical providers from ENTs to dentists are reporting increased cases of things like dizziness and tooth grinding, respectively, as people suffer from higher stress levels than usual.

Are you suffering from any of the symptoms below? It is always best to start with a full medical workup from a general practitioner, but it is also important to understand the role that stress can play.

1. Dental problems

From the deterioration that comes from tooth grinding to increased jaw pain and muscle tension, and tooth decay that stems from a change in eating patterns, dentists often see reactions to stress in ways that many patients may miss in themselves.

Has teleworking made you snack around the clock, leading to cavities? Has not getting dressed for work mean you brush your teeth less frequently? Has your partner reported that you seem to be grinding your teeth at night? These subtle changes can add up to real damage, so it’s important to pay attention.

2. Rashes and acne

Our skin can be considered our largest organ, and it functions practically as a canvas of what is going on with our bodies in the general sense. As our hygiene habits change, so too may our skincare routine — leading to pimples or overly dry, unmoisturized skin. Stress can cause flare-ups of eczema or even hives, creating itching that can add cruelly to your distress — beginning the cycle anew.

3. Hair loss 

Stress can lead to hair loss in both females and males, often because the stress response itself pushes follicles into the resting phase. So, hairs are prone to falling out simultaneously instead of alternating, leading to potentially large clumps of hair being lost at the same time.

Another way that hair loss can be stress-related is through our behavior. We may twist and pull our hair due to nervous energy, sometimes even without realizing it. Other times, if daily hygiene and hair-brushing fall by the wayside due to emotional duress, tangles and matted clumps can be created that end up pulling out massive amounts of hair when they are finally combed.

4. Sore muscles 

Muscle tension and anxiety are practically synonymous, so very interwoven into the stress response is the tightening that happens from your temples to your toes. So, during times of prolonged stress, when these muscles are constantly maintaining a state of hypervigilance without a chance to loosen, your body may feel completely beaten down, like you have run a marathon — or even gotten into a fistfight.

5. Frequent colds

The relationship between the immune system and the stress response is well-documented. And while for the past year we have been focused on the deadly threat of COVID-19, there are many additional viruses and pathogens that spread with contact.

When you experience prolonged stress, your immune system works less than optimally. Moreover, the potential behavioral ripple effects of stressfultimes, like poor sleep and not eating well, can make you more rundown, weaken your immune system, and make you more likely to get sick as well.

6. Dizziness 

If you are experiencing frequent bouts of dizziness, it’s important to get checked out by a physician to rule out various physiological issues. Nonetheless, there could be many stress-related reasons for the dizziness, from changes in posture and neck alignment to changes in diet that lead to inadequate vitamins and minerals.

In medicine, we are learning more and more that everything is connected — and though dizziness might not immediately seem to be connected to (for example), your longer, flustered days at the computer, it could very well be. From eyestrain to misalignment that causes neck pressure that affects your inner ear, many things are related that are not obvious at first glance.

7. Digestive problems 

A “nervous stomach” has become a common descriptor for a reason: Stress affects all kinds of aspects of your stomach and intestine function. The threat response of fight-or-flight typically halts digestion (your body believes at that moment it has more important things to deal with), which means that your lunch may be left sitting in a pool of stomach acid. Stress also often affects our diets and our levels of physical activity. All told, from nausea and heartburn to diarrhea and constipation, it’s common for changes in this area of function to be at least partly attributable to stress.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/friendship-20/202106/8-hidden-health-effects-chronic-stress?collection=1169514