TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 26, 2024

1. Barrons-The past four Septembers, the market has performed -3.9%, -4.8%, -9.3%, and -4.9%.

QQQ Leader-Bounced at 200-day, but still 25 points from previous highs.


2. Bespoke Mortgage Plus Gas Index-Two Giant Factors for Consumers

Bespoke Investment Group-Combined, our MORTGAS Index currently sits at 10.2.  As shown below, the index is down 1.46 points from its record high of 11.66 seen in late 2023, but it’s still extremely elevated relative to the last 20 years.  Looking on the bright side, the index is now back below its peak seen in 2008 during the Financial Crisis, but we’re going to need to see significant further easing to get back to the 20-year average of 7.62.  A drop like that would likely mean mortgage rates falling at least into the 4-5% range and gas prices remaining closer to a 2-handle than a 4-handle.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/research/think-big-blog


3. Emerging Markets Ex-China Technical Breakout


4. Crypto Sentiment…Crypto Fear and Greed Index

Equities: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in the “fear” zone after a sharp drop from “greed” levels during the sell-off in risk assets. The Daily Shot Blog

Source: Alternative.me

https://dailyshotbrief.com


5. Gold vs. Bitcoin Volatility.

Marketwatch-Bitcoin and gold are very different assets, with the latter much less volatile, noted Cavatoni. In the five years between Dec. 31, 2018 and December 31, 2023, bitcoin showed an average daily volatility of roughly 60%, while gold’s volatility was at about 15%. By Frances Yue

PHOTO: WORLD GOLD COUNCIL

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/so-much-for-digital-gold-why-bitcoin-remains-lackluster-while-gold-had-a-record-run-abc1d07d?mod=home-page


6. New York Population Exodus-Financial Times.

https://www.ft.com/content/6c490381-d2f0-4691-a65f-219fab2a2202


7. The Modern Family: Married Households Decline to 47% in the U.S. Share of U.S. Households by Married Couples, Other Families, and Nonfamilies (1950–2023)

From Barry Ritholtz Blog https://ritholtz.com/2024/08/sunday-reads-383/

Source: @econovisuals


8. Top 100 Political Donors in Presidential Election = $1.2B

Barrons Campaigns this election season have raised roughly $7.2 billion, with the top 100 donors pitching in $1.2 billion, according to campaign-finance tracker OpenSecrets. The contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump—and the hundreds of down-ballot races in Congress—is on track to be one of the most expensive campaigns ever. It is being increasingly bankrolled by a handful of billionaires and some hundred millionaires seeking to bend the U.S. and the regulations that govern it to their will.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-harris-election-campaign-billionaires-megadonors-6cf28b0c?mod=past_editions


9. Mental menu: Your food choices may be causing anxiety and depression

By The Conversation  Optimizing mood with food

The most obvious way to stabilize blood sugar levels is to decrease sugar and carbohydrate intake. However, this is not the only way. Research has proven that simple changes can drastically mitigate volatile blood sugar fluctuations. Some strategies to stabilize blood sugar and optimize mood include:

  • Make low glycemic index carbohydrates such as parboiled rice, whole grain bread and al dente pasta dietary staples, and be mindful of how many high glycemic index carbohydrates you consume. I give my patients this guide to increase their awareness of the glycemic index of various carbohydrates.
  • Eat carbohydrates earlier in the day, such as breakfast or lunchtime, as opposed to later in the day, like dinner or, worse yet, as a nighttime snack. Our hormones follow a circadian rhythm, and carbs eaten earlier in the day produce a smaller blood sugar spike compared with carbs eaten later in the day.
  • Avoid eating carbohydrates on their own, such as snacking on a box of crackers or downing a bowl of rice. Always strive to combine carbohydrates with proteins such as beans, nuts, meat and fish, or with healthy fats such as olive oil and avocado. The combination of nutrients slows down the digestion of carbohydrates and thereby produces a smaller blood sugar spike.
  • Eat carbohydrates at the end of the meal, after eating vegetables and protein first. Just changing the order in which foods are eaten can drastically lower the blood sugar spike that comes after.
  • Eat a salad dressed with olive oil and vinegar prior to eating carbohydrates. The combination of vegetables, acid from the vinegar and fat from the olive oil, all work together to slow carbohydrate absorption and minimize the resultant blood sugar spike.

Mary Scourboutakos is a family medicine resident and nutrition expert at Eastern Virginia Medical School.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

https://studyfinds.org/food-choices-anxiety-depression


10. Circle of Competence-Farnam Street Blog

Mental Models

Circle of Competence 

“The first rule of competition is, you are more likely to win if you play where you have an advantage. Doing so requires a firm understanding of what you know and what you don’t know. Your circle of competence is your personal sphere of expertise, the area where your knowledge and skills are concentrated. It’s the domain where you have a deep understanding, where your judgments are reliable, and your decisions are sound. 

The size of your circle isn’t as important as knowing the boundaries. The wise person is the one who knows the limits of their knowledge, who can say with confidence, “This falls within my circle,” or “This is outside my area of expertise.” 

Operating within your circle of competence is a recipe for confidence and effectiveness. But venturing outside your circle of competence is a recipe for trouble. You’re like a sailor navigating unfamiliar waters without a map, at the mercy of currents and storms you don’t fully understand. This isn’t to say that you should never venture outside your circle. Learning new things, gaining new skills, and mastering new domains is one of the most beautiful things about life. 

Celebrate your expertise, but also acknowledge your limitations.” 

— Source: The *Updated* Great Mental Models v1: General Thinking Tools

https://fs.blog