Topley’s Top 10 – August 03, 2023

1. 10-Year Treasury Yield at Previous Highs After Hitting 3.3% in April

30-Year about to break above a sideways pattern.

2. Equity Inflows Back Above Bonds the Last 3 Months

3. Dividends as a Percentage of Total Returns

4. Dividend Yield Stocks Lag this Year

Jack Ablin Cresset

Stocks vs Bonds: A One-Sided Argument No More | Cresset Capital

5. Narrow Market Rallies Historically Broaden Over Next Year

Capital Group

Can this stock market rally continue? | Capital Group

6. Credit Card Companies

AMEX and Discovery did not make new highs….measure of consumer spending.

7. UBER Turns Profit Breaks Above 2022 Highs

UBER Still Below Record Highs $60

8. Emerging Markets Chart

EEM never made it back above 200-week moving average….50week still below 200week.

9. New Jersey house prices rise at fastest rate in the nation — but other states saw prices fall by up to 8%

By Aarthi Swaminathan

Several housing markets in the Northeast had a strong performance in June, according to CoreLogic. Other states? Not so much.

Good news for homeowners in New Jersey — home-price growth in the Garden State in June was the highest in the nation, according to real-estate data company CoreLogic.

Despite having the highest property taxes in the nation, New Jersey ranked first as its homes rose in value by 6.9% in June year-over-year. Nationally, home prices grew 1.6% on the year in June, the CoreLogic Home Price Index said.

Several housing markets in the Northeast gave a strong performance in June, CoreLogic said. New Jersey was followed by New Hampshire and Vermont, which both saw home prices grow by 6.4%. CoreLogic expects home prices nationally to increase to 4.3% by June 2024. 

Home prices fell the most in June 2023 as compared to June 2022 in the West, led by Idaho where values fell by 8%. Washington and Montana followed, with home prices falling 5.8% and 5.7% respectively. Homes in California saw their values fall by 2.2% from June. 

‘While the continued imbalance between buyers and sellers continues to pressure home prices, June’s annual bump in price growth echoes economic resiliency, a thriving U.S. job market and strong consumer spending.’

— CoreLogic Home Price Index

“While the annual losses reflect last year’s declines, many West Coast markets are expected to see a strong rebound in prices over the next year,” CoreLogic stated.

Homes in California were also some of the most expensive in the nation. 

The U.S. housing market is currently facing a supply-and-demand crisis. Home buyers across the U.S. are struggling with a major lack of home listings, as homeowners find few reasons to sell their houses. But demand continues to hold strong, despite the 30-year mortgage rate hovering at 7%.

“While the continued imbalance between buyers and sellers continues to pressure home prices, June’s annual bump in price growth echoes economic resiliency, a thriving U.S. job market and strong consumer spending,” Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic, said in a statement.

“And while higher rates are impacting affordability for buyers with loans, almost 4 in 10 sales are all-cash transactions,” she noted.

Not to mention the fact that many baby boomers who own their home “have substantial equity,” he added, “which could be putting pressure on prices in markets where that generation is currently migrating.”

CoreLogic also noted that the top real-estate markets at risk of home-price declines included the Cape Coral-Fort Myers metro, the North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton metro, both in Florida, and the Provo-Orem metro in Utah.

10. U.S. Happiness Chart

Marketwatch The chart-There’s been a bear market in happiness, if you are to believe this chart in the long-running General Social Survey, from ​NORC at the University of Chicago. That said, people are still happy, as the happiness scale runs from -100 to +100. Sam Peltzman, a professor emeritus of economics at the University of Chicago, says the U.S. adult population is mainly happy, and of the different factors shaping happiness, “marriage and income are most important followed by race and education and lastly by place, age and gender.”