Topley’s Top 10 – November 15, 2022

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1. Biggest One Day Decline of 10 Year Yield Since GFC

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank -After last week’s downside surprise in US CPI, we saw some of the biggest daily market moves in years. In fact, as today’s chart of the day points out, the daily decline in the 10yr real Treasury yield on Thursday was the second-largest since the GFC and behind only the initial Covid move in March 2020.

 

2. Wisdom Tree Weekly from Jeremy Siegel.

If CPI used up to date housing data…core inflation would be zero

https://www.wisdomtree.com/-/media/us-media-files/documents/resource-library/weekly-commentary/siegel-weekly-commentary.pdf

3. Lumber at 25 Year Low

From Trading Economics Lumber 25 Year Low

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

www.stockcharts.com

4. Follow Up on Dollar Technical Breakdown Last Week….All International Charts on Watch List

EFA Developed International vs. S&P…Will it Bottom?

5. Barrons Stat on Tech Historical Bear Market Rallies

BTIG in Barrons For example, the Nasdaq 100NDX +1.82%  (NDX) gained 7.49%. Of the 20 largest NDX daily gains since 1990, 16 of them happened either between April 2000 and May 2002, or in October 2008, none of which marked the end of those bear markets

Stocks Rallied Dramatically. It’s Still a Bear Market | Barron’s (barrons.com)

6. Non-Profit Tech Led the Rally Last Week

7. Coffe Prices Go On List of Falling from Highs.

www.stockcharts.com

8. ‘FTX Has Been Hacked’: Crypto Disaster Worsens as Exchange Sees Mysterious Outflows Exceeding $600M

FTX officials appeared to confirm rumors of a hack on Telegram, instructing users to delete FTX apps and avoid its website.

By Cheyenne Ligon, Sam Reynolds, Sam Kessler, Nikhilesh De, Reilly Decker

FTX bought the naming rights to the Miami Heat arena in March 2021. (Danny Nelson/CoinDesk archives)

The collapse of FTX, already one of the most spectacular disasters in financial history, worsened as hundreds of millions of dollars were drained from the cryptocurrency exchange hours after it filed for bankruptcy.

More than $600 million was siphoned from FTX’s crypto wallets late Friday. Soon after, FTX stated in its official Telegram channel that it had been compromised, instructing users not to install any new upgrades and to delete all FTX apps.

“FTX has been hacked. FTX apps are malware. Delete them. Chat is open. Don’t go on FTX site as it might download Trojans,” wrote an account administrator in the FTX Support Telegram chat. The message was pinned by FTX General Counsel Ryne Miller.

Hours later, Miller disclosed in a tweet that FTX US and FTX.com had been moving all their digital assets to cold storage because of the Friday bankruptcy. “Process was expedited this evening – to mitigate damage upon observing unauthorized transactions,” he said.

Many FTX wallet holders reported $0 balances in their FTX.com and FTX US wallets. FTX’s API appeared to be down, which could account for this. According to on-chain data, various Ethereum tokens as well as Solana and Binance Smart Chain tokens exited FTX’s official wallets and moved to decentralized exchanges like 1inch. Both FTX and FTX US appear to be affected.

The transfers occurred on the same day that the firm filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. after apparently losing – or misappropriating – billions of dollars in user funds. Suspicions – which are conjecture at this point – circulated online about whether, rather than an outside attack, someone inside the company might’ve been responsible.

On Twitter, members of the cryptocurrency community quickly began to speculate that the outflows could have been coordinated by a member of Bankman-Fried’s inner circle, pointing out that the simultaneous and sophisticated hacks of FTX and FTX US are indicative of a potential inside job. Twitter sleuth ZachXBT tweeted Friday night that “multiple former FTX employees confirmed to me that they do not recognize these transfers.”

Around midnight Eastern time, FTX’s login portal was unavailable (though the site was still online) giving users a 503 error when they attempted to log in. A 503 error happens when the server is unavailable, commonly because it’s down for maintenance or unavailable for access.

‘FTX Has Been Hacked’: Crypto Disaster Worsens as Exchange Sees Mysterious Outflows Exceeding $600M (coindesk.com)

9. We Shall See…..

FTX’s bust and crypto crash come with two silver linings

Brian Sozzi. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn. Read this and more market news on the go with Yahoo Finance App.

Let’s look at the bright side of the FTX-driven crypto crash to kick off what will likely be another long week for the industry.

There are probably two positives worth considering here.

First, the crypto crash has not spread over into the stock market. The S&P 500 is up 5.9% in the past five trading sessions compared with a 19% drop for bitcoin. Why is this you ask? Simple. The rout is not as huge as the headlines suggest.

“We think Bitcoin and ETH remain a too small part of the market to cause broader financial market contagion, with a total crypto market cap size of $890 billion vs $41 trillion for U.S. equities,” Citigroup digital asset analyst Joseph Ayoub said in a note to clients. “The FTX shortfall is still relatively small in comparison to other crypto events, such as Luna ($40 billion lost) or market cap losses in public tech names.”

So there’s that.

And two, what has happened with FTX should ultimately set the groundwork for a more stable crypto market over time (hopefully). Maybe that means less booms and busts, which is a positive for investors. There are a couple reasons for that, such as regulators coming in next year with new guardrails and the washout removing froth (maybe fewer crypto events in the Bahamas with Lambos parked outside for the Gram) and bad actors (we’re looking at you, SBF).

What we have witnessed in the past week is a flush out and it’s all good — even if there is pain to be had today.

“This should be a wake-up call that what you thought was worth something is actually not worth anything,” said Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev on Yahoo Finance Live.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ft-xs-bust-and-crypto-crash-come-with-two-silver-linings-103045894.html

10. 10 Signs Your Employees Aren’t the Right Fit For Their Jobs

Find the job that’s right for you.

BY LAURA GARNETT, PERFORMANCE STRATEGIST AND AUTHOR, THE GENIUS HABIT@GARNETTL

Hiring the right talent and helping those people thrive in their positions is one of the biggest challenges any leader, CEO, or founder has, especially since job hopping has become the norm. You not only need to find incredibly smart people, you also need to make sure they stick around, rather than jump to the next best thing around the corner. 

The single most important key to this is to make sure that your people are in the right roles for who they are. Often, performance issues are misdiagnosed. If you have someone on your team who’s not working enough, who isn’t performing the way that they should, or who seems bored and disengaged, the issue isn’t always a matter of that person’s ability. Sometimes, it’s a matter of fit. If a job isn’t aligned with someone’s strengths, values, and personality-;it’s pretty impossible for them to succeed. 

How can you tell whether your employees are in the right roles? It’s often incredibly subtle, so you need to pay attention. For starters, look for these 10 signs. 

  1. They are often bored or disengaged, and you regularly get the sense that their head isn’t in the game.
  2. They just can’t master the tasks they’re assigned, despite lots of feedback as to how to do them better or differently.
  3. They often don’t share their ideas with you or other colleagues. Or, when they do, what they have to offer feels completely off base and unhelpful.
  4. They seem to be struggling with confidence. They rarely participate in group discussions or share their perspective with others.
  5. You can visibly notice that they get frustrated easily.
  6. What is needed for them to perform does not seem to be aligned with their personality or strengths.
  7. You’ve had a sneaking feeling for a while that something just isn’t working.
  8. They communicate that they don’t feel valued, despite feeling that you’ve done everything you can to make them feel valued.
  9. Despite efforts to provide feedback, coaching, and support, their performance doesn’t shift.
  10. They’ve approached you saying that they aren’t happy with the work they’re doing or that they would like a different role.

If you see several of these signs in one of your employees, it’s time to make a change. Navigating transitions are always difficult, but know that you can start the conversation with empathy and compassion. 

When you realize that someone on your team isn’t in the right role, ask them to tell you more about who they are, what they’re best at, and what they ultimately want out of their career. It could be that there is another place in the business that they could contribute to that would be a better fit for both of you. 

Or, if not, then knowing that they aren’t right for your company is a great thing. It won’t only be good for your business, it’ll ultimately be a positive shift for that person’s career. After all, no one wants-;or can succeed at-;a job that isn’t the right fit for them.

https://www.inc.com/laura-garnett/10-signs-your-employees-arent-right-fit-for-their-jobs.html?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=freeform

Topley’s Top 10 – November 14, 2022

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1. Ten-Year Treasury Yield Broke Above Trend Line from 1982

The red line in chart is trendline going back to 1982….See X’s breaking above

www.stockcharts.com

2. Dollar Breaks 50day on downside and Copper Makes Run at upside 200day….China is 70% of Copper Demand

www.stockcharts.com

3. Two Cali Gambling Votes Fail to Pass

Geoff Zochodne Covers.com As of around 8:00 a.m. E.T. on Wednesday, results showed that both Proposition 26 and Proposition 27 had been defeated. With 94.5% of precincts partially reporting, Prop 26 had been approved by 29.9% of voters, while Prop 27 had only 16.6% support, meaning both were well short of the 50% they needed.

Prop 26 aimed to bring in-person sports betting to racetracks and Native American casinos in California. Prop 27, meanwhile, would have permitted statewide online sports betting via tribes and licensed gambling companies.

https://www.covers.com/industry/us-midterm-election-sports-betting-ballot-results-november-2022

Dow Jones Gambling Index -50% Correction from Highs

www.stockcharts.com

4. CPI Shelter 40% of Inflation Numbers

Charlie Bilello But CPI Shelter continues to be a lagging indicator, as the real-time housing data has been moving in the opposite direction…

a) Rents are up 5.8% year-over-year, the smallest rate of increase since May 2021.

​b) Home prices are up 3.2% year-over-year, their slowest growth rate since the start of the pandemic.

​At some point, Shelter CPI will start reflecting this new data, but we don’t appear to be there just yet. There remains a considerable gap between reported and actual housing inflation that will likely be closed in part by continued increases in Shelter CPI.

5. Employment Cost Index Rolling Over.

6. Diesal Fuel Below Highs but Still Up Over 100% Since 2021

Y Charts

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_retail_diesel_price

7. Japan Equities 2022 Currency Hedged vs Unhedged Year to Date Massive Spread

DXJ Hedged vs. EWJ Unhedged

www.yahoofinance.com

8. Financial Sector ETF +20% in One Month

Bespoke The Financial sector ETF (XLF) has been on fire since its intraday low of $29.59 on October 13th, which was the day of the hotter than expected September CPI report.  From that low point on 10/13, XLF is up 20.2%.  As shown below, the ETF is currently at the very top end of a wide sideways range that has been in place over the last six months.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/banks-and-brokers-on-fire

9. Three Million World Cup Tickets Sold

10. Discipline is Often a Carefully Created Environment

Tiny Thought-Farnam Street

Eventually, everyone loses the battle with willpower; it’s only a matter of time. Consider my parents. Neither of them smoked when they joined the armed forces, but it didn’t take long for them to join their smoking co-workers. At first, they resisted, but as the days turned into weeks, the grind of saying no when everyone else was saying yes wore them down. Decades later, quitting proved nearly impossible when they turned to willpower. Everyone around them smoked. The very same force that encouraged them to start was preventing them from stopping. They were only able to kick their habit when they changed their environment. They had to find new friends whose default behavior was their desired behavior.

What looks like discipline is often a carefully created environment to encourage certain behaviors. What looks like poor choices is often someone trying their best to use willpower to go against their environment.

The people with the best defaults are typically the ones with the best environment. Sometimes it’s carefully chosen, and sometimes it’s just plain luck. Either way, it’s easier to align yourself with the right behavior in the right environment.

The way to improve your defaults isn’t by willpower but by creating an artificial environment where your desired behavior becomes the default behavior.

Joining groups whose defaults are your desires is an effective way to create an artificial environment. If you want to read more, join a book club. If you want to run more, join a running club. If you want to exercise more, hire a trainer.

Your environment will do a lot of the heavy lifting for you if you align it with where you want to go.

https://fs.blog

Topley’s Top 10 – November 11, 2022

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1. History of 5% Up Days

The S&P 500 gained more than 5% today, the best day since April 2020. This was the 23rd >5% day since 1950. Most tend to happen in clusters, but higher 27.6% a year later and up 90.9% of the time is a nice takeaway. @ryanDetrick

Ryan Detrick LPL Research https://twitter.com/RyanDetrick/status/1590821274863153152/photo/1

2. Peaks in Fed Policy and Stock Market Performance.

Jennifer Wright Edward Jones Are we getting closer to a peak?  While monetary policy tightening phases can be painful for stock and bond market returns, we may be closer to the end of the Fed’s rate-hiking campaign than the beginning. Market expectations currently call for the Fed’s final rate hike to occur at their February 2023 FOMC meeting. Historically, when the Fed’s policy rate peaks, market performance is quite strong in the 12 months that follow: Since 1980, S&P 500 returns during this period have averaged about +15%.

While every cycle is unique, given the negative returns and sentiment this year, markets may certainly welcome a potential pause in Fed tightening.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jennifer-k-wright-cfp%C2%AE-cpwa%C2%AE-944384a/

3. Three Lower Highs in U.S. Dollar.

Dollar showing some short-term bearish signals….3 lower highs purple arrows….close below 50day

www.stockcharts.com

4. Average Performance of Commodities During Rising and Falling Dollar Environments

Dorsey Wright The graph below shows the average performance of four ETFs representing different areas of the commodities complex, copper (industrial metals), energy, gold (precious metals), and agriculture.

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright

5. Small Cap Energy About to Breakout to New Highs?

6. Disney Breaks to New Lows on Chart…-53% from Highs.

DIS chart 50day thru 200day to downside

www.stockcharts.com

7. Why It is Tough for Interest Rates to Go Much Higher? $965m per day in Interest Payments on Government Debt

https://www.statista.com/chart/28393/us-public-debt/

8. New Home Cancellations increased Sharply in Q3

“Significant shift in market conditions” CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-cancellations-increased-5b3  Found at Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com

9. Magazine Cover Curse

https://twitter.com/GRDecter

10. These 5 Foods Will Nourish Your Metabolism & Bolster Mental Health

mbg Founder & Co-CEOBy Jason Wachob

You may be familiar with the gut-brain connection, but according to Harvard psychiatrist Chris Palmer, M.D., author of Brain Energy, truly understanding metabolism is the key to resolving mental health issues. “Metabolism is a process our cells use to break down the products of food, turn it into energy used to maintain or grow cells, and it involves the management of waste products,” he explains on this episode of the mindbodygreen podcast. “Metabolism is fundamental to the definition of life.” He even suggests that mental disorders are metabolic disorders of the brain.

And once you start to connect the dots, you may be able to reach the root of your mental health concerns, whatever they might be. “You can start to understand why neurotransmitters might be dysregulated. You can understand why hormones might be dysregulated. You can understand why vitamin and nutrition deficiencies can cause mental illness,” he adds. And ultimately, you can start to understand just how important a balanced diet is for your mental well-being.

Sure, a healthy metabolism depends on so much more than what you eat, but assessing your diet is a solid place to start. Here, Palmer shares his top grocery staples for a balanced mood.

almon.

First up on Palmer’s list? Wild-caught, sustainably sourced salmon, which is rich in omega-3 fatty acids to enhance both metabolic and brain health. Ample amounts of omega-3s in the body have been linked with healthy blood pressure and circulation; by lowering blood pressure, research shows they may even reduce the risk of CHD (coronary heart disease)1.

In terms of mental health, ​​one study shows that omega-3 fats can decrease stress2, and another demonstrates that diets rich in omega-3 fatty acids can help promote a healthy emotional balance and positive mood. All that to say: You may want to load up on omega-3-rich staples, like salmon, mackerel, anchovies, sardines, and herring (commonly referred to as SMASH).

2. Eggs.

Palmer also considers eggs a great addition to your brain-healthy plate (assuming you can tolerate them). Eggs, you see, are rich in choline, the precursor chemical for acetylcholine, one of the most fundamental neurotransmitters3 that’s important for our nervous systems. (And for what it’s worth, eggs also provide some omega-3s).

3.Low-carb veggies.

“I would definitely encourage low-carbohydrate vegetables,” says Palmer. “Spinach, broccoli, asparagus…Those provide fiber, which can be really helpful and beneficial to most people’s guts.” By feeding the healthy microbes in your gut, you inherently support mental health, too, thanks to the gut-brain axis4.

Not to mention, a meta-analysis of eight studies5 found that leafy green vegetable consumption significantly reduced the risk of cardiovascular disease by 15.8 percent—so consider them a major winner for heart and mental health.

4.Olive oil.

To round out his grocery list, “I would probably go with some type of pure, healthy fat,” says Palmer. “If I had to choose just one, it would probably be olive oil.” High-quality olive oil is brimming with polyphenols, which contain powerful brain-protective antioxidants; the monounsaturated fats in olive oil can also help support healthy cholesterol6. And if you’re at all concerned about increasing longevity, you should know that a study published in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology found that consuming more olive oil, particularly in place of other fats, may lead to a longer life.

5.Avocado.

But why choose just one healthy fat? “I love avocado,” says Palmer. “I eat avocado all the time.” Not only do the nutritious green globes have tons of fiber, but they also have magnesium, which has shown to be helpful for depression7.

The takeaway.

According to Palmer, a metabolic approach to mental health is crucial for getting to the root of the issue and optimizing well-being for your whole body. They say any food that’s good for your heart is also great for your brain—and with Palmer’s growing research, we can understand exactly why.

5 Foods That Will Nourish Your Metabolism & Reduce Anxiety | mindbodygreen

Topley’s Top 10 – November 10, 2022

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. History of Rising and Falling Rates

Ben Carlson If you look at the historical data, rising or falling interest rates don’t have nearly as much of an impact on stock market performance as you would think:

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/10/which-asset-class-is-more-attractive-right-now-stocks-or-bonds/

2. Stocks Vs. Investment Grade Bonds 10 Years

JP Morgan

https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/gl/en/o/raising-the-standard-in-private-banking?utm_source=jpmwm-sem-google&utm_medium=all-exact&utm_campaign=us-en-banking-acq&utm_content=bankaccountdesktop-na&c3api=3432,106135134440,kwd-823671394043&gclid=CjwKCAiAvK2bBhB8EiwAZUbP1JLMyD0LVOfT03p-LD_tKzs0q8aw0RYEiNSdAFl06JX3Ls537FKXbBoCEnoQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

3. Overnight Lending Rate…Zero to 4% YTD

What is SOFR? The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is intended to replace the US dollar London Interbank Rate (US LIBOR) in future financial contracts. SOFR was selected by the Alternative Reference Rates Committee (ARRC) chaired by the New York Federal Reserve in 2017.

SOFR is the average rate at which institutions can borrow US dollars overnight while posting US Treasury bonds as collateral. Similar to a mortgage rate, SOFR is a secured borrowing rate in the sense that collateral is provided in order to borrow cash. SOFR differs from US LIBOR in that the latter is a rate for unsecured borrowing (where no collateral is posted).

Major central banks globally have taken on similar reforms to replace their US LIBOR equivalents with more reliable rates.

https://www.sofrrate.com/#:~:text=Latest%20SOFR%20rate&text=The%20resulting%20overnight%20LIBOR%20fallback,fixed%200.00644%25%20overnight%20fallback%20spread.

4. Rising Rates vs. Software Stock Valuations

Yahoo Finance Brian Sozzi·Anchor, Editor-at-Large

The below charts from Battery Ventures sheds light on why household name tech companies are trimming the fat — and how many are doing so.

Chart 1: Valuation has compressed across software stocks as interest rates have risen.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-and-salesforce-layoffs-big-tech-165954504.html

Salesforce.com -54%…50day thru 200day to downside on weekly chart

5. Venture Capital $539B in Cash

CHARTR BLOG There’s a common refrain in entrepreneurial circles that some of the best companies are built in the toughest of times — now those tougher times appear to be coming.

Keep your powder dryThe last decade has seen record investments from venture capital investors to startups, but things are starting to turn. The latest data from PitchBook reveals that venture capital (VC) investment in 3Q 2022 was down ~$90bn, more than 50% on the same quarter last year.

Though investors wrote smaller checks in the third-quarter, VC funds are actually still awash with cash. Data from Preqin, reported on by the WSJ, shows that VCs are sitting on an astounding $500bn+ of raised cash that is not yet invested, known as dry powder in the VC world.

Choosers can’t be beggarsVCs are understandably cautious about future investments. High-profile unicorns like Robinhood, Rivian and Doordash have been crushed in public markets, and VCs are becoming increasingly selective on the companies they back, as sentiment has pivoted from “growth-at-all-costs” to “stuff-that-makes-money”.

The flip side of the coin is that for founders building genuinely innovative companies, with a sustainable business model — or at least a credible path to one — there’s still some $500bn of capital sitting on the sidelines, waiting to be put to work.

www.chartr.com

6. Microstrategy the CEO who Loaded Up on Bitcoin

$1100 to $170….back at Covid lows

www.stockcharts.com

7. Tangible vs. Intangible Assets in S&P 500 1975-2020

Jonathan Baird

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathanbaird88/

8. Bloomberg Crypto Index -75% from Peak

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-08/asia-set-for-cautious-open-ahead-of-vote-results-markets-wrap?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L

9. Way More Subways Stores than McDonalds.

Visualizing America’s Most Popular Fast Food Chains (visualcapitalist.com)

10. How Great Leaders Use the 3 Laws of Influence to Be Remarkably Persuasive, Backed by Considerable Science

Science reveals how to make facts, logic, and reasoning even more convincing.

BY JEFF HADEN, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, INC.@JEFF_HADEN

Our boss Ron could talk us into just about anything. He could convince us to stay two hours over, even when there was only 10 minutes left in our shift and we were already mentally clocked out. He could convince us to give a new job changeover process our all, even if it appeared hopeless on paper.

He could convince us to change shifts, change roles, work in other departments… when he asked, we did it.

That seems odd, looking back. Factory floors are rarely hotbeds of supervisor/employee cooperation. Implementing any change usually takes time, with compromise typically skewed heavily towards take, not give.

Plus, as the best-performing crew in the plant we were great to be the supervisor of — anyone put in charge of us would automatically receive outstanding performance evaluations — yet really hard to actually supervise: We knew what we were doing, and treated bosses accordingly.

Hold that thought.

Some people are unusually persuasive. They influence — in a good way — the people around them. They make people feel a part of something bigger than themselves.

In fact, almost every successful person I know is extremely good at persuading other people. Not through manipulation or pressure, but by describing the logic and benefits of an idea to gain agreement.

And by taking advantage of a little science.

The Law of Timing

According to research published in Leadership Quarterly, people tend to be much less charismatic when they’re at a relatively low point in their circadian rhythms, and much more charismatic when they’re at a relatively high point. In non-researcher-speak, morning people are more charismatic early in the day, while night owls are more charismatic later in the day.

Ron was a classic morning person, and whether purposefully or intuitively, he nearly always proposed a change or sought agreement and buy-in within the first couple hours of a shift.

That’s when he felt most enthusiastic and energetic. That’s when he was most “on,” and he took advantage of it.

He also knew his audience. Our crew was made up of morning people, and it didn’t take a neuroscientist — or a chronotype survey — to determine our collective tendency. We all got to work before the shift started to get a jump on the day. When given the choice between coming in early to work overtime or staying later, we always chose to come in early.

We were easy to convince in the morning, and research shows why. Morning people perceived a speaker to be more charismatic when they viewed a videotaped presentation in the morning; morning people who viewed the same video later in the day found that person to be less charismatic.

The same held true for night owls; the same speaker was judged to be significantly more charismatic when viewed in the afternoon or evening than in the morning.

Want to persuade? Want to inspire and motivate? First consider your circadian rhythm. Think about the time of day you feel most energetic and enthusiastic, at least in broad terms like morning or afternoon. Then think about the people you want to inspire and motivate.

While it’s unlikely they’re all either larks or night owls, odds are more fall in one camp than the other. Then do your best to line up your tendency with theirs.

The Law of Speed

According to a study published in Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, people who talk at a relatively fast rate are generally perceived to be more credible and intelligent than people who speak more slowly.

Since speed implies certainty — and Ron was usually nothing if not certain — talking fast often made him more persuasive.

But not always. As with any communication, the nature of your audience also matters. According to a study published in Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin:

  • If your audience is likely to disagree with you, speak faster.
  • If your audience is likely to agree with you, speak slower.

Why?

  • When your audience is skeptical, speaking faster gives them less time to come up with objections or counterarguments.
  • When your audience is inclined to agree, speaking slowly gives them time to mentally weigh in with a few of their own thoughts, and at least partly convince themselves. (It’s easy to persuade someone of something they already feel makes sense.)

When Ron thought we would be skeptical, he was fairly rapid-fire. But when he knew we were likely to agree, he slowed down. He gave us time to nod our heads. To say to ourselves, “Yep, that makes sense, and here’s why.”

Because he knew that what mattered most was how we received his message.

Not the way he wanted, through habit or intention, to deliver it.

The Law of Volume

I know what you’re thinking: Facts, logic, and reasoning should win the day — not seemingly manipulative strategies like considering the time of day or adjusting your rate of speech.

But if you truly believe in your decision, idea, or proposal, it only makes sense to do everything you can to help you persuade others to join you.

And besides: People don’t mind a little “manipulation.” As the authors of a 2019 study published by the American Psychological Association write:

Communicators engaging in paralinguistic persuasion attempts [i.e., modulating their voice to persuade] naturally use paralinguistic cues that influence perceivers’ attitudes and choice.

Rather than being effective because they go undetected, however, the results suggest a subtler possibility. Even when they are detected, paralinguistic attempts succeed because they make communicators seem more confident without undermining their perceived sincerity. Consequently, speakers’ confident vocal demeanor persuades others by serving as a signal that they more strongly endorse the stance they take in their message.

Further, we find that paralinguistic approaches to persuasion can be uniquely effective even when linguistic ones are not. A cross-study exploratory analysis and replication experiment reveal that communicators tend to speak louder and vary their volume during paralinguistic persuasion attempts, both of which signal confidence and, in turn, facilitate persuasion.

I know that’s a lot, so let’s unpack it. Talking louder makes you seem more confident. Talking softer makes you seem more competent and warm. The combination is extremely powerful.

Even if people know you’re doing it on purpose.

Take Ron. I still remember the time he wanted us to work two months of night shift in a row rather than one. When he listed the objective reasons why the change made sense — WIP leveling, utilizing open equipment, component timing, etc. — he spoke fairly loudly. He had total command of the facts, and he showed it.

But when he talked about the impact on us, he spoke so softly we had to lean forward to hear him. “Look,” he said. “I know this is a lot to ask. Doing two months of nights will suck. I wish there was another option. But we’re in a bind, and we need you. Be honest, there’s a lot of pressure on me to make this happen, so I need you, too.”

Did we feel manipulated? A little, maybe. But we didn’t care. We knew the situation. Just as importantly, we trusted Ron. We knew he needed to convince us, and we were OK with that.

Because persuading and convincing isn’t a game to be won or lost. The best outcome is when both sides agree because they genuinely agree, not because one side feels pushed or forced.

So make sure you use your powers of persuasion to help people objectively understand why they should be convinced. Do that, and they are much more likely to persuade themselves, which means their agreement will result not just in buy-in, but also in action.

Because persuasion without action is persuasion at all.

It’s just a lot of talk.

Topley’s Top 10 – November 08, 2022

Daily Top Ten No Comments

Fact for the day…The Afghan war lasted nine years. It resulted in the death of 15,000 Russian soldiers. In eight months in Ukraine, Russia has already lost 71,000 lives. One thousand died in a single day last week. 

1. S&P 500 Ex-Top 10 Tech Names Historical Chart

Dan Stratemeier Managing DirectorEquities, Event Driven Strategies Jefferies LLC

2. Bond Volatility Index +110% One Year.

https://www.google.com/search?q=move+index+chart&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS898US898&oq=move+index+chart&aqs=chrome..69i57j35i39j0i22i30l4j0i390l4.2728j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

3. 20 Year Treasury Year to Date -13% More than S&P 500

20 Year Treasury -35% YTD  vs. S&P 500 -22%

www.yahoofinance.com

4. Euro Stoxx Large Cap Stocks Nowhere for 20 Years

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/FEZ:NYSEARCA?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiS_IOKoZz7AhWUmYkEHRaEDQUQ3ecFegQITxAg

5. Shale Unemployment Back to 2005 Levels.

From The Daily Shot Blog https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-november-7th-2022/

6. FED Looking at $3.9 Trillion in Balance Sheet Shrinkage

Barrons By Lisa Beilfuss  Markets are on two counts oblivious to the significance of QT, says Solomon Tadesse, head of quantitative equities strategies North America at Société Générale. His model says that if the Fed is to bring inflation back to its 2% target, then some $3.9 trillion in balance-sheet shrinkage must accompany a policy rate of at least 4.5%. That amount of QT, he says, is equivalent to an additional 4.5 percentage points of tightening.

Why Higher Interest Rates Won’t Solve the Inflation Problem https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed-rate-hikes-inflation-quantitative-tightening-51667598316?mod=past_editions

7. Central Banks Bought Double the Previous Record of Gold Last Quarter

But, as we detailed earlier today, central banks bought 399 tons of bullion in the third quarter, almost double the previous record, according to the World Gold Council.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/gold-market-roiled-mystery-buyer-waves-300-tonnes

8. Residential Real Estate Stats

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/

9. How Russia Pays for War

Found at Barry Ritholtz The Big Picture 10 Sunday Reads – The Big Picture (ritholtz.com)

10. The Fundamental Difference Between Decisions and Actions: Why Jeff Bezos Says Your Goal Is to Make 3 Good Decisions per Day

Because most ‘decisions’ shouldn’t be open to consideration, much less deliberation.

 

BY JEFF HADEN, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, INC.@JEFF_HADEN

 

Jeff Bezos. Photo: Getty Images

You probably feel like you make dozens of decisions every day, especially when the buck stops with you. Whether to expedite shipping on an order. Whether to send a certain email. Whether to address an employee’s questionable behavior.

And definitely on a personal level, because that’s when the buck always stops with you. Whether to get up and going or hit the snooze button. Whether to ditch the food you packed and go out for lunch instead. 

But those aren’t really decisions, because you already know what to do. Nearly everything we “decide” already has an answer.

Going to miss the delivery date? Expedite the shipping. Need to make sure something is clear? Send the email. Want to build a better team? Address the behavior now; performance issues almost never take care of themselves.

The same is true for personal “decisions.” The nine minutes of sleep you get after hitting the snooze button isn’t restorative sleep; you’re better off setting your alarm for nine minutes later. (Or going to bed earlier.) The food you packed is — or should be — an integral part of your healthy lifestyle; going out for lunch when you didn’t plan to is almost never better for you. (If only because you’ll feel guilty later for having given in to temptation.)

That’s the beauty of processes and routines. Rules aren’t restrictive. Rules are liberating, because rules free you up from having to make “decisions.” Instead of wasting mental energy and willpower on “choosing,” all you have to do is act. 

Over time, those actions become habits. Then you definitely don’t need to make a decision, because habits are effortless. (In both good and bad ways, obviously.)

So what happens when you strip out all those “decisions”?

Three Great Decisions

As Jeff Bezos says, you don’t get paid to make thousands of decisions every day. You get paid to make a small number of high-quality decisions. 

As Bezos wrote for Fast Company:

You need to be thinking two or three years in advance, and if you are, then why do I need to make a hundred decisions today? If I make three good decisions a day, that’s enough, and they should just be as high quality as I can make them.

Warren Buffett says he’s good if he makes three good decisions a year, and I really believe that.

Clearly there’s a huge difference between making three good decisions per day, and three good decisions per year. Yet that difference is also easy to explain.

Launching a startup, like starting anything from a relatively blank slate, requires making seemingly countless decisions. Infrastructure, branding, pricing strategies, marketing strategies–everything is up in the air. It’s impossible, as Bezos says, to “work in the future” when you haven’t figured out the present. 

But you’ve made a decision; you no longer have to “decide.” Barring evidence that decision was wrong and needs to be revisited, all you have to do is act. With time, the number of decisions you need to make every day should rapidly decline.

Which means you can focus all that mental energy on making strategic, rather than tactical decisions. You can focus on making decisions that set the course for the next months, or even years. To start a business, or not. To launch a new product line, or not. To open a new location, or not.

To take your life — health, education, relationships, etc. — in a new direction, or not.

Making fewer “decisions” frees you up to think about the things that will make the biggest difference in your professional and personal life.

Think of it that way, and you really don’t need to make more than three good decisions a year.

Especially if those decisions help you become the person you want to b

The Fundamental Difference Between Decisions and Actions: Why Jeff Bezos Says Your Goal Is to Make 3 Good Decisions per Day | Inc.com