BIGPX chart below 200day and breaks early October level.
4. Small Business in the U.S. is Paying 10% Interest on Loans.
Torston Slok Apollo There are 33 million small businesses in the US, and the monthly survey from the NFIB shows that small businesses are now paying 10% interest on short-term loans, see chart below.
In other words, Fed policy is working as the textbook would have predicted, and companies are facing higher costs of capital.
The outcome is lower capex spending and lower hiring.
5. S&P 600 is Small Cap Names that Make Money.
40% of Russell 2000 has no net profits….But even Small caps that make money also approaching 2022 lows.
6. Moderna…$500 to $80
7. Update on Lithium Stocks….ETF -50% from Highs.
8. Home Construction ETF Chart Back to Summer Lows….Still +17% YTD with Disappearing Home Equity Lines.
9. Buy vs. Rent ….52% More Expensive to Buy than Rent.
Chartr.com
10. Body Movement.
Sunday Firesides: Be a Swiss Army Human
How many different physical movements did you perform in the past week?
You surely walked, at least between your house and car and your car and office. Perhaps you bent over or reached for something above your head. If you follow a regular fitness routine, maybe you also ran, pedaled, squatted, and lunged.
But even if you fall into the category of regular exerciser, you likely still only used a small percentage of your body’s physical capabilities.
And that’s been true not only for days, but months and even years.
When was the last time you crawled or rolled?
Jumped up to something . . . down from something . . . over something?
Threw a punch . . . or a ball?
Hung from a bar right-side up . . . or upside-down?
Balanced across a beam?
Scaled a vertical ladder . . . or traversed a horizontal one?
Vaulted over a wall?
Carried something other than groceries?
Climbed a rope . . . a tree . . . a mountain?
Swam? Dived? Danced?
The human body is the greatest multitool on earth. Yet most people function as if they were only a blade.
Your physical capacities aren’t just nice to have in your back pocket. They unlock a spectrum of possibilities. Practicing the myriad of embodied skills you possess hones your health, allows you to navigate more landscapes, and could save your life in an emergency. Best of all, it simply feels amazing to be physically competent, to be able to explore every environment — to fulfill the measure of your creation.
So don’t just attack life with a knife. Bust out your metaphorical magnifying glass, screwdriver, scissors, and toothpick. And regularly use that corkscrew to open a bottle of life’s many physical joys.
SolarEdge Technologies SEDG, -5.63% warned on profits due to a slowdown in solar-power installations in Europe, news that also hurt rivals including Enphase Energy ENPH, -6.41% and SunPower SPWR, -2.28%. Marketwatch
TAN Solar ETF 50day thru 200day to downside
3. ICLN Clean Energy ETF …50day thru 200day to Downside
4. Update…XLE Oil Energy ETF vs. TAN Solar ETF
Oil outperforming solar by wide margin
5. EWJ Japan ETF….Popular Post Warren Buffet Japanese Buys.
EWJ Triple Top and Close Below 200-Day
6. Gold Hits Record Level vs. Major International Currencies.
7. 10-Year Treasury Yield Hitting Resistance Level Going Back to 2008
8. Prologis Industrial REIT Making Run at 2022 Lows.
Callum Thomas Stocks vs Bonds: Stocks have had an amazing run vs corporate bonds since the 2009 market bottom. You might say though that they only just got back to the dot-com high, and effectively had a lost 2-decades. As they say: entry point and path matter! Interesting also though to see it peaking out after a sharp run up — overbought at resistance?
7. Ex-Magnificant Seven….S&P Just Hit Lowest Level of 2023
Marketwatch Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, highlighted the fact that the S&P 500 excluding the “Magnificent Seven” megacap technology names recently touched its lowest level of the year, while the ratio of the S&P 500 excluding the Mag Seven vs. the entire index has fallen to its lowest level since late 2021. By Joseph Adinolfi
10. How to Achieve Goals.Howto Achieve the Goals You Set
One of the most widely read TraderFeed posts in the last few years dealt with the topic of FIGS: Focused, Intensive Goal Setting. Too often, the goals that we set are not much more than good intentions. New Year’s resolutions are a notorious example. How can we become better at actually achieving the goals we set?
As the previous post emphasized, when we focus our attention on fewer priorities and work consistently and intensively on those, we are much more likely to make progress than if we have a laundry list of changes to make and work on those as the need/desire arises. So, for instance, if we want to get in good physical shape, dedicated daily time with gym equipment and running is a great start. That time with lifting, stretching, and running has to challenge us, which means we always tackle more when a given level of effort becomes routine. If our pursuit of goals is not focused, frequent, and intensive, we’re unlikely to sustain a consistent growth path.
We are most likely to succeed if our goals become our commitments. When I worked at a well-known hedge fund, the founder once commented that, “If it’s not in your calendar, it’s not part of your process”. This most certainly applies to our trading processes: researching ideas, turning ideas into trades, monitoring markets, and managing risk/reward. It equally applies to any of our purposeful activities, including the personal goals we set.
When we commit to our goal-seeking in the daily calendar and create a dedicated time for making efforts at improvement, we experience our desired future every day. “Anyone who fights for the future lives in it today,” Ayn Rand once observed. Fighting for the future daily means that we experience a piece of our future consistently, making it an intrinsic part of ourselves. What starts as passion and desire is expressed through regular effort and evolves into positive habit.
Imagine that you have a single hour every day to pursue one goal that will dramatically benefit your trading, your health, your mindset, or your relationships. Imagine that this is the first item to go into your calendar; routine work and home tasks have to fit around your one key objective. Every day, without fail, you are going to use a slice of your day to be your own performance coach and bring your real self closer to your ideal self. That way, you will spend a fraction of every day living in your future.
That is most likely to occur if we have very concrete targets to hit in pursuit of our goals. If we want to lose weight, we want to define a challenging but doable objective. If we are looking to improve our trading, we need to keep stats so that we can truly see our progress: number of winning/losing trades, average sizes of winners/losers, overall profitability, etc. If we are making improvements in our relationships, we want to very intentionally do more of the things that bring closeness, happiness, and fulfillment to our partners and to us.
Mental illness is when we live in the past every day. Mundane life is when we simply live life each day at a time. Greatness is when we live a consistent portion of each day in the future we are designing and building.
What future do you want to build? How can you immerse yourself in that future today?
Longer-term U.S. Treasurys are experiencing a bear market longer than what stocks endured during the 2000-02 dot-com crash and the 2007-08 financial crisis, according to DataTrek Research.
It has been three years and two months, or 800 trading days, since the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT, which invests in long-term Treasurys, reached an all-time high on Aug. 4, 2020. The fund has since fallen 50%, noted Jessica Rabe, co-founder at DataTrek.
A bear market is traditionally defined by an index falling by 20% or more from a recent high.
In comparison, the S&P 500 SPX recorded a 49% loss over 637 trading days from its cycle peak on March 23, 2000, to its trough on Oct. 9, 2002, as the dot-com bubble burst. The large-cap U.S. equity gauge fell 57% over 355 trading days from its peak in 2007 in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.
DATATREK
Long-term Treasury yields have surged lately, with the 30-year BX:TMUBMUSD30Y and the 10-year Treasury rates last week hitting their highest levels since 2007, respectively, before pulling back. The yield on the 10-year Treasury retreated 15.6 basis points to 4.627% on Tuesday, and the 30-year Treasury fell 11.5 basis points to 4.826% on Tuesday.
Bloomberg By Shelly Hagan The biggest US banks are poised to write off more bad loans than they have since the early days of the pandemic as higher-for-longer interest rates and a potential economic downturn are putting borrowers in a bind. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co., which report third-quarter results Friday, will join Bank of America Corp. — which comes Tuesday — in posting roughly $5.3 billion in combined third-quarter net charge-offs, the highest for the group since the second quarter of 2020, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
5. Aerospace and Defense ETF Bounces From Israel Attack…Still Well Below Highs.
ITA down for the year…no bull run post Ukraine…50day thru 200day downside bearish end of September.
6. Private Credit The New Kings of Wall Street.
WSJ By Matt WirzHigh interest rates, driven by the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer policy, are shaking up how corporate loans get done. Soaring rates brought down banks such as Credit Suisse and Silicon Valley Bank and forced others to reduce lending. As those lenders stepped back, private-credit fund managers stepped up, financing one jumbo loan for American corporations after another.
This shift is accelerating a trend more than a decade in the making. Hedge funds, private-equity funds and other alternative-investment firms have been siphoning away money and talent from banks since a regulatory crackdown after the 2008-09 financial crisis. Lately, many on Wall Street say the balance of power—and risk—has hit a tipping point.
“There’s been a steady progression, but since Covid and the banking crisis this year we’ve really seen the banks rein in risk,” said David Snyderman, head of alternative credit and fixed income at Magnetar Capital.
8. Homebuilders Held 200-Day with 8% Mortgage Rates
9. Third Political Party Support Hits Record Highs
10. Understanding and Overcoming FOBO (Fear of Better Options)
Darius Foroux FOBO or Fear of Better Options is a psychological phenomenon where someone avoids making a decision out of fear that there may be a better option.
FOBO is the nagging feeling that there might be a better choice out there, which leads to analysis paralysis.
Can you relate to the following? You’ve had a long day and decide to watch something nice on Netflix.
You keep browsing the hundreds of attractive movies and TV shows you haven’t seen and finally end up NOT watching something because you wasted an hour trying to decide.
Now, that’s not the end of the world. But when we let FOBO creep into our lives, it bleeds into more important areas.
Having FOBO makes decision-making stressful not just for us but for the people around us too.
By understanding the root causes of FOBO and having an effective strategy, you can regain control over your decisions and lead a more productive and stress-free life.
FOBO is as old as humanity
US venture capitalist, Patrick McGinnis, the one who coined the terms FOBO and FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), suggests that FOBO is not a new human behavior.1
“These feelings are biologically part of who we are. I call it the biology of wanting the best. Our ancestors a million years ago were programmed to wait for the best because it meant they were more likely to succeed.”
However, the widespread adoption of advanced technology and the internet has accelerated FOMO and FOBO. We can now easily compare ourselves with others (which brings out feelings of FOMO) and overwhelm ourselves with choices (leading to FOBO).
As McGinnis pointed out:
“Go on Amazon to buy a pair of white shoelaces and you have over 200 choices, whereas 50 years ago you would go to Woolworths and choose between three… The other factor – which is more emotional – is that FOBO is driven by narcissism, because when you have FOBO, you’re prioritizing your own interests far above anyone else’s, leaving everyone around you in limbo.”
To choose something, people have to let go of other options. When you overthink things, it becomes easier to mourn “what could have been.” And it gets harder to decide.
Are you a maximizer or satisficer?
Some psychologists have found a basis for the FOBO phenomenon. When it comes to decision-making, people can be divided into two groups: “Maximizers” or “satisficers”.2
Maximizers are people who make choices based on maximum benefit in the long term, while satisficers choose depending on what benefits them now.
For example, maximizers may pay more for a larger car than they actually need in case they want a bigger one later. While a satisficer is likely to pick the car that is good for now. Maximizers also tend to focus more on what was lost rather than what they already have.
Both groups have been studied extensively, but one study aimed to explore whether “maximizers show less commitment to their choices than satisficers in a way that leaves them less satisfied.”3
In other words, are maximizers more likely to be unhappy with their choice once they finally make it? The study’s conclusion: Absolutely yes. The researchers concluded:
“Maximizers miss out on the psychological benefits of commitment… High-level maximizers certainly cause themselves a lot of grief.”
Commitment is the path to genuine joy
Back in college, I had many classmates who didn’t know what they wanted. They kept changing courses, trying to “find” themselves.
Those folks eventually ended up hopping from one degree to the other, never finishing anything.
Here’s the thing: Most of us won’t know what we want. This applies to both big and small decisions.
Which course should you take in college? Should you pursue grad school? Is it a good idea to start a side business? What would you want for dinner: Italian or Chinese?
Maybe it works out. Or maybe not. But you can always pivot later. That’s the key.
Throughout my entire time in business school, I was convinced I would work for a large corporation. I thought I would get a traineeship and then spend the rest of my career climbing the corporate ladder to eventually become a bank CEO or something.
But as I was writing my master’s thesis in 2010, I realized that wasn’t the right option. The European economy was decimated and the chances of me landing a decent job were slim.
At the same time, my father wanted to start a business, so we ended up doing it together. Years later, I still ended up getting a corporate job, then quit only a year later to become a full-time writer.
If you had asked me ten years ago whether I’d known this is what I would want to do with my life — my younger self would likely say no!
But things worked out because I committed to all my choices.
That’s one other thing I learned about succeeding. It’s all about consistency.
So choose something you can be consistent about. And stick with it. When you do that, the best option automatically comes to you. And you don’t even have to chase it.
The higher bond yields of today have come after much pain for existing investors.
This is by far the longest bond bear market in history, at 38 months and counting.
And with the current drawdown of over 15%, absent a sharp decline in yields it will take a good while longer for investors to recover from these losses.
The 15% loss in the US bond market over the past three years is unprecedented. But it’s important to remember that what preceded this decline was also unprecedented – that being the lowest bond yields in history
3. Put/Call Ratio Surged Last Week Hitting 5 Year High Levels
Equities: The put-call ratio surged this week, pointing to bearish sentiment.
5. Defensive Consumer Staple Stocks Leading this Selloff
VDC Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF…50day thru 200day to downside.
6. Bitcoin Less Volatile than U.S. Treasuries in 2023
Bespoke Investment Group Bitcoin Grows Up-When you think about volatility in various asset classes, crypto is typically considered the most volatile, and based on how it has traded over the last seven years, the reputation is well deserved. Since the start of 2017, when bitcoin’s price first crossed above $1,000 through now, bitcoin’s average daily percentage move has been 2.7% (chart below). This year, though, the average daily percentage move has been significantly less at a subdued 1.57%, and just recently, its average daily move over the prior two months dropped below 1%. That’s less volatile than the treasury market! There’s still three months left in the year, but barring some major volatility, bitcoin is on pace for its least volatile year in terms of day-to-day volatility on record. As the years have progressed, bitcoin has clearly become a more seasoned asset class.
Sometimes, athletes’ worries transform into anger or physical symptoms.
The best way to excel during a competition is to focus on the play at hand.
By focusing on the present, athletes are more are more likely to be able to play “in the zone.”
Athletes often report that they have trouble keeping their minds in the game. They may worry about a previous missed play, whether they will make a poor play, whether they will live up to their coaches’ expectations, or whether they will win.
Some worry about injuring themselves, especially if they have previously experienced an injury. In team sports, athletes often worry about letting down their team, team cohesion or conflicts with teammates, and occasionally become upset with the failures of their teammates.
Sometimes, athletes’ worries transform into anger, which they might take out on themselves, their teammates, or even their coaches, relatives, or friends. In other cases, their worries can turn into physical symptoms such as shortness of breath, stomachaches, or headaches. In the latter case, if the athletes are evaluated by a medical practitioner who focuses on addressing their symptoms, rather than the underlying anxiety, patients sometimes are treated needlessly with medications.
The best way to excel during a sports competition is to focus on the play at hand as much as possible. During a competition, thinking about what just happened, or how the play may be affected by factors outside of the athlete’s control, serve as distractions that can lead to a poorer outcome in the game.
For instance, worrying about how the outcome of a single play could affect the entire game adds extra stress that can end up disrupting the play. It should also be emphasized that when team athletes play poorly, including because they become distracted, this can affect the morale and performance of their teammates.
A famous quote by theologist Reinhold Niebuhr is worth keeping in mind while thinking about how to best perform in a competition:
“God grant me the serenity To accept the things I cannot change, Courage to change the things I can, and Wisdomto know the difference.”
During a competition, athletes should focus only on what they can change: their own performance at that time, and, in team sports, being as supportive as possible of their teammates, which can enhance their team performance.
There are several methods that athletes can use to train themselves to focus on the present. By doing so, athletes are more apt to find themselves playing seemingly effortlessly “in the zone.”
PracticeMindfulness. Mindfulness exercises can be used to train the brain to focus on a single thought. For instance, athletes can learn to focus solely on their breath while meditating. When they find their mind wandering from thinking about the breath, they should gently, and non-judgmentally refocus on their breathing. By learning how to better focus their minds during meditation, athletes can similarly learn to focus better on the play at hand.
Calm Breathing. Remaining calm during sports can help athletes stay in the moment. Athletes can calm themselves with their breathing, while resting between plays: They can inhale slowly through the nose, hold their breath momentarily, and then exhale slowly through the mouth. This breathing pattern can be repeated several times to achieve even more calmness.
Be Aware of the Details. Again, while resting between plays, athletes can pay attention to small details, which helps ground them in the moment. For instance, an athlete might pay close attention to what they can see, hear, smell, and touch during a competition. How are any boundaries marked? With chalk, paint, or rocks? What does the equipment (if applicable) look and feel like? What sounds are made during the sport? What odors might be perceived where the sport takes place?
Focus on the Process. Focusing on the mechanics of a play, including the correct actions that need to be taken by the athlete and reactions of the competitors, helps keep the mind in the present.
One Play at a Time. Rather than thinking about competitions as a whole, it can be helpful to focus on accomplishing one play at a time to the best of the athletes’ ability. This approach allows athletes to string together multiple well-executed maneuvers, with minimal distractions.
Embrace Pressure and Mistakes. Athletes can learn to view handling pressure and mistakes as ways to improve rather than as impediments to their performance. Dealing well with mistakes at the moment they occur, including through correcting them efficiently, and moving on to the next play, presents learning opportunities. Athletes also can rise to new levels of achievement by considering the knowledge that is gained from difficult experiences and thereafter implementing new approaches to their athletic endeavors.
Rehearse inHypnosis. The hypnotic state can be used as an arena in which athletes can practice remaining in the moment during competitions. Athletes can repeatedly imagine participating in their sport while being “in the zone” and thereby train their minds to remain focused during actual competitions.
Takeaway
Athletes should remember that they have the power within themselves to better focus their minds, and thus excel in their sport. It is important to remain patient during this process as mind/body skills improve with repetition in the same way that athletic success improves with physical practice.
