1. Capex Boom U.S. and Japan
2. End of Day Rallies…Institutional Buying?
Fundstrat Tom Lee
3. Apple’s “Golden” Moment
Bespoke Investment Group
For over a year now, shares of Apple (AAPL) have been stuck between the low $160s and the high $190s as the market impatiently waits for the company to outline its AI strategy. In just the last seven weeks, though, the stock has tested both ends of the range, and ahead of today’s Worldwide Developers Conference, shares of AAPL are modestly pulling back from the top end of the range. In case you missed it, in last week’s Bespoke Report, we discussed the stock’s performance leading up to, during, and after prior conferences including its performance when it rallied in the weeks leading up to the conference. If you missed that on Friday, make sure to check it out.
As the stock has rallied from its lows in the last several weeks, AAPL is on the verge of completing a golden cross formation, which technical analysts consider a bullish pattern. A golden cross occurs when a stock’s shorter-term moving average (in this the 50-DMA) crosses up through a longer-term moving average (in this case the 200-DMA) as both are rising. Conversely, the opposite of a golden cross is an iron cross which occurs when the short-term moving average crosses down through a longer-term moving average as both are falling.
As recently as May 1st, AAPL’s 50-DMA was more than 5% below its 200-DMA, but that spread has narrowed quickly in the last six weeks to less than 1% today. The gap is also continuing to narrow fast, and barring an absolute plunge in the stock, it’s likely that the 50-DMA will cross up through the 200-DMA within a week or so.
While golden crosses are a positive technical formation in theory, they don’t necessarily play out that way in practice. The table below summarizes the performance of AAPL after each prior golden cross and iron cross in the post-iPod era (since 2001).
After the four golden crosses, AAPL traded down over the next week three out of four times, and one and three months later, it was only up half the time. Six and twelve months later, AAPL’s stock was higher three out of four times with the lone exception being its performance after the golden cross in May 2008 just ahead of the financial crisis.
In the post-iPod era, AAPL has experienced five iron crosses with the most recent being in March 2024. Performance following these prior occurrences was similarly weak over the short term, but six and twelve months later, median returns were stronger than after golden crosses.
What stands out concerning performance following both golden and iron crosses, though, is the fact that the median returns for both golden and iron crosses are weaker than the average for all periods.
https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/apples-golden-moment
4. Unemployment Moved Above 4%…History of S&P Returns
https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright
5. Tesla Has Gone 648 Days Since making All-Time High
6. So Much for Inflation at Restaurants
Axios
Restaurants are having their biggest year ever (axios.com)
7. Used Car Prices Down but Still Above 2020
Wolf Street Blog
Vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE) also went through a crazy price spike during the pandemic, up by 64% in May 2022, a huge historic ridiculous price spike that was nevertheless dwarfed by what EVs went through. The Manheim index for ICE vehicles is up 34% from January 2020 (red):
8. Work from Home by Age Groups
https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-xers-boomers-return-to-office-remote-work-hybrid-wfh-2024-6
9. Where are U.S. Military Troops Located?
USA FACTS
https://usafacts.org/articles/where-are-us-military-members-stationed-and-why
10. How to Handle Difficult People Like a Stoic
PSYCHOLOGY TODAY Follow these three principles to guard your equanimity.- Seth J. Gillihan PhD
KEY POINTS
- The philosophy of Stoicism offers greater flexibility in how you respond to challenging people.
- It teaches that your interpretations, rather than events themselves, are the true source of upset feelings.
- Peace of mind comes from redirecting your energy to the things you can actually control.
On a recent road trip with my wife and kids, I found myself being tailgated by an apparently angry and impatient driver. I was going a few miles per hour over the speed limit as I passed a semi on a long downhill stretch through the mountains; when I pulled into the right lane, the driver accelerated past me, blowing his horn for about 10 seconds.
I felt my sympathetic nervous system turn on, and resisted the urge to give him the finger or to passive-aggressively honk a “friendly” beep-beep in return. For several minutes afterward, I was silently seething. It felt like he had gotten away with something, as if I had lost and he had won. Each time I replayed the prolonged honk I felt angry and humiliated. Part of me really wanted to chase down his car and pay him back somehow, but I knew nothing good would come of it.
You no doubt have had similar encounters with obnoxious or pushy people, whether on the road or elsewhere. These episodes are a perfect opportunity to practice the principles of Stoicism.
1. Judgments, Not Events, Disturb People
As I ruminated on what had happened, I had to wonder: What had that pushy driver actually done to me? The idea that he had “humiliated” me or “won” was based on multiple layers of interpretation. The facts were much simpler:
- A driver wanted his car to go faster than mine was going.
- He drove close to my bumper when my car was blocking his way, apparently angry and annoyed.
- As his car passed mine, he pressed on his horn for several seconds before speeding away.
The powerlessness and sense of victimhood that I felt were not part of the events themselves. Nothing says that honking without retribution equals “winning.”
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As the Stoic philosopher Epictetus wrote in Enchiridion nearly two millennia ago, “It is not events that disturb people, it is their judgments concerning them.”
A few pages later he adds: “Another person will not hurt you without your cooperation; you are hurt the moment you believe yourself to be.”
It wasn’t the driver’s actions that upset me, it was the meaning I gave to them. When someone does something that offends you, ask yourself what is fact and what is interpretation.
2. Don’t Give Your Peace of Mind to Others
The judgments you make drive your emotional reactions. If you want to “win” against others, guard your equanimity. The only way I would lose to that honking driver was by losing my peace of mind.
Why give difficult people power over how you feel and what you do? Your emotional equilibrium is not to be entrusted to the actions of others. You can let people be rude or unreasonable, without acting as if your only recourse is to get upset and respond in kind.
Remind yourself that no one else is responsible for your emotions. “So when we are frustrated, angry, or unhappy,” wrote Epictetus, “never hold anyone except ourselves—that is, our judgments—accountable.” When you do, you’ll discover true freedom in how you choose to respond.
3. Focus on What You Can Control
The Stoics recognized that peace of mind is found by focusing on what you actually are responsible for. Epictetus advised asking yourself, “‘Is this something that is, or is not, in my control?’ And if it’s not one of the things that you control, be ready with the reaction, ‘Then it’s none of my concern.'”
