TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 02 2024

1. Market Leader Semiconductor Index had -17% Correction

Semis -17% before bounce rolled over at 50-day


2. U.S. Electricity Generation


3. Natural Gas Fund $140 to $14


4. Trade Natural Gas at Your Own Risk


5. NFLX -15% Correction


6. These Corrections Have Broken Excessive Optimism Sentiment Streak

Excessive Optimism Streak Broken by Ed Clissold of Ned Davis Research, 5/2/24

Key Takeaways

  • The NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll exited its excessive optimism zone for the first time in 20 weeks, the third-longest run on record.
  • Long optimism streaks have become more common and in clusters.
  • S&P 500 returns have been mixed after optimism periods have ended.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/05/02/optimism-streak-broken-ned-davis-research


7. Yield Spreads Not Widening

Jack Ablin Cresset
The yield differential between high-yield bonds and US Treasuries is the narrowest since 2007, according to Credit Suisse data. This suggests that lenders are more comfortable with lower-quality borrowers, believing that higher inflation makes debt repayment easier.


8. Wages vs. Inflation Post Covid

https://ritholtz.com/


9. 81% of Americans Unfavorable View Toward China


10. Richard Branson’s Best Advice on Hiring the Right People Is a Master Class in Leadership-INC

EXPERT OPINION BY MARCEL SCHWANTES, INC. 

Forget the impressive resume and the college degrees. Branson looks for something else when hiring his best people.

Richard Branson is famous for his innovative ideas and adventurous spirit. Branson’s signature blond hair and love for risky stunts make him an unconventional leader who isn’t afraid to challenge the status quo.
The founder of the Virgin Group has shared various leadership lessons over the years, including his advice on whom to hire and place in leadership roles. He told Forbes years ago:
I’m quite involved in hiring for leadership and I look to hire my weaknesses. Personality before [resume]. A person who has multiple degrees in your field isn’t always better than someone with broad experience and a wonderful personality. 

What exactly is a ‘wonderful personality’?

That’s the million-dollar question. Some confuse skills for traits or vice versa. While you can argue that traits are inherent qualities that define a person’s personality, behavior, and attitudes, most leadership experts will tell you that they can be learned. 
That said, the most desirable (personality) traits you’ll want to look for in a leader can skillfully be applied on the job to achieve great results. So what are they? What will lead to effectiveness and success on the job these days? 
According to Harvard Business School professor Linda Hill, one of the world’s top experts on leadership, there are eight essential qualities to look for. She tells Harvard Business Review, “Leadership is a process of self-development. No one can teach you how to lead; you need to be willing and able to learn how to lead. Mostly we learn from our experiences and facing adversity.”
Of those eight qualities Hill has studied (which you can review in the HBR article), I’ll cover three here that I think Richard Branson would certainly consider for his own leaders:

1. Authenticity

Merriam-Webster announced late last year that “authentic” was its word of the year for 2023. It’s an overused buzzword that has lost its meaning, sure, but considering the current era of artificial intelligence and disinformation, where the distinction between what’s real and what’s fake has become increasingly ambiguous, it’s not a bad choice.
What does the word mean for leadership? I’ll break it down like this: Being authentic in human interaction means showing up with your best self. Unfortunately, sometimes, we choose to hide our true intent or motives to achieve a specific outcome. We wear a mask and try to impress others by becoming who we are not. 
You might have heard the phrase “fake it till you make it.” However, this approach leads to short-term gains. It can have severe consequences that damage your reputation and relationships.
Perhaps we put up a front and avoid our authenticity because we’re afraid. We might fear failure, feel ashamed of our true identity, or feel that we’ve been playing a role in life.
By being real with yourself, dropping the masks, and walking in the path of authenticity, you’ll soon notice a drastic difference in who you attract and how others treat you, especially employees.
How to be more authentic
The brave thing to do is to first ask for feedback from trusted peers. Hill recommends asking, “Can you give me some sense of what I should keep doing, start doing, and stop doing?” 
My own advice as a leadership coach is to be genuine and open about your emotions. This can be shown through statements like, “I’m not sure what direction we should take as a team in this situation. I need some guidance from you (team members).” This creates an environment of honesty and authenticity, which should be modeled and encouraged by leaders in organizations. Being emotionally honest and authentic sets an example for your team members to do the same, leading to stronger connections and more sincere conversations.

2. Adaptability

Do you adapt well to change and adjust easily to challenging situations? This is an important question you should ask yourself as a leader. Adaptability is a hallmark trait of people with high emotional intelligence. They recognize when to stay the course and when it’s time for a change. In other words, when one strategy is not working, high-EQ leaders evaluate and determine a different course of action. In practical terms, leaders with high EQ know how to handle unhappy customers, disgruntled co-workers, or bosses above their line of sight not pleased with their work.
How to boost your adaptability
It’s important to engage in activities that require you to be adaptable, says Hill. This means taking on tasks that may be outside of your usual area of expertise. For example, Hill suggests that if you work in finance, you could try working with the marketing team to broaden your skills. Basically, challenge yourself in new environments with diverse groups of people.

3. Resilience

Similar to adaptability, resilience means being able to adapt to challenging situations in life. Resilient leaders demonstrate unwavering emotional stability under stress, effortlessly adapt to ambiguity, and handle setbacks with poise. 
We know that setbacks and failures are inevitable, so today’s leaders and innovators rely heavily on resilience to overcome adversity. Mistakes are a natural and important part of the learning, growing, and innovating process and can be flipped into advantages when embraced.
How to become more resilient
Working with a coach. Coached individuals are better equipped to manage and thrive during change and uncertainty because coaching strengthens their resilience. How leaders handle stress also plays a crucial role in determining their overall resilience. To enhance yours, some effective techniques include:
– Setting clear and specific goals
– Sharing worries, anxieties, and concerns with others
– Getting enough rest
– Balancing work and leisure time
– Practicing meditation
Going back to the beginning, it raises questions about which of these “traits” Richard Branson would value the most when identifying top leaders. He is known for hiring leaders whose strengths complement his weaknesses, but I find it hard to believe that any of these traits could be considered a weakness in one of the world’s most innovative and charming billionaires.
Now accepting applications for Inc.’s Best Workplace awards. Apply by February 16 for your chance to be featured!
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https://www.inc.com

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 01 2024

1. Earnings Surprises Highest Since 2021

Equities: In the current earnings season, EPS surprises have been the highest since 2021 (so far).

Source: Morgan Stanley Research; @carlquintanilla
The Daily Shot Brief https://dailyshotbrief.com/


2. History of TSLA Drawdowns

Tesla Axes Supercharger Team-Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-30/tesla-axes-supercharger-team-in-blow-to-other-/automakers?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=GGda9y2L


3. Starbucks Trading Below $77 Pre-Market…-30% from Highs

Starbucks heading for 2022 levels….50 week will be below 200 week today


4. United Health UNH has More Revenue than Alphabet and Microsoft this Year…CEO Before Congress Today

UNH Sideways for 2 years

Morningbrew

HEALTH

Congress to question if UnitedHealth is too big to fail

If you’ve ever shaken your fist and yelled at a bill from UnitedHealth, you may have more in common with members of Congress than you think.
Lawmakers in Washington are prepared to grill UnitedHealth CEO Andrew Witty in two congressional hearings today, months after a cyberattack on a subsidiary of the healthcare giant, Change Healthcare, rattled the industry and left pharmacies, doctors, and hospitals in the dark. Change processes roughly half of all Americans’ medical claims.
Congress wants Witty to clarify how UnitedHealth handled the breach of patient data. But beyond that, it wants to investigate whether the company—the nation’s largest private health insurer—has grown too big and taken on too much risk.
Healthcare with a hefty profit
However big you think UnitedHealth is, it’s bigger than that:

  • With a market cap of nearly $450 billion, it’s the fourth-largest company in the US by revenue this year, beating out Alphabet and Microsoft.
  • The company is eyeing a $24.7 billion profit in 2024.
  • One analyst estimated that more than 5% of US GDP flows through UnitedHealth’s systems daily.

That could all end soon. Throughout most of UnitedHealth’s light-speed growth and acquisition spree, it’s drawn little scrutiny from regulators. But the winds are changing: The DOJ launched an antitrust investigation into the company in February, and today’s hearings show lawmakers are digging in. According to the Washington Post:

  • Sen. Ron Wyden, chair of the Senate committee interrogating Witty today, plans to ask about the company’s practices, like prior authorization.
  • At a hearing earlier this month, Rep. Buddy Carter said the company “needs to be busted up.”

As if that wasn’t spicy enough…some lawmakers are asking the SEC to investigate suspiciously timed stock sales by UnitedHealth execs that occurred shortly before news of the antitrust investigation went public.—CC
https://www.morningbrew.com/daily


5. Presidential Election Years and S&P Returns

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright


6. U.S. vs. Europe Stocks…Pre-2009 vs. Post 2009


7. The Increase in U.S. Treasury Issuance


8. Inflation for Vehicle Repair….Add to home and car insurance inflation

Wolf Street The Consumer Price Index for motor vehicle maintenance and repair leaped in March and was up by 8.2% from a year ago, and by 37% from four years ago. CPI reflects cost increases that consumers face. For fleets, cost increases, including for collision damage repairs, were similar.

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/04/29/sagging-used-car-prices-spiking-maintenance-repair-costs-and-a-post-bankruptcy-propaganda-coup-turn-toxic-for-hertz/


9. U.S. Spending on Home Renovations

From Irrelevant Investor Blog

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2024/04/24/animal-spirits-a-healthy-pullback/


10. Average Wealth for Americans Under 40

Emily Peck Axios

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/us-millenial-wealth-pandemic-economy

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 April 30 2024

1. Tesla +35% in 5 Days….Retail Investors Bought $15B this Year

The retail crowd bought the dip in Tesla this year in a big way.
Retail investors bought a net $15.2 billion of Tesla this year through Dec. 16, according to Vanda Research data.
That’s a record for Tesla, the firm said, well ahead of the $5.6 billion of net buying over 2020 and 2021 combined.
Tesla dethroned Apple as the most-purchased stock by retail investors this year.
Investors betting against Tesla had a lucrative 2022. Investors shorting the stock are sitting on a collective $15 billion of gains this year, according to S3 Partners. Shares of Elon Musk’s electric vehicle-maker are down about 60% this year.
WSJ By Jack Pitcher
 
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-12-21-2022/card/retail-investors-bought-more-tesla-than-ever-this-year-mMHQNpikCWBq4e3QELJm


2. How Big Data Centers Are Slowing the Shift to Clean Energy: 70% of Global Internet Traffic Passes Thru Virginia Data Center Alley

WSJ

The cutting edge of technology is driving the power grid back to the 19th century.

An explosion of so-called hyperscale data centers in places such as Northern Virginia has upended plans by electric utilities to cut the use of fossil fuels. In some areas, that means burning coal for longer than planned.
These giant data centers will provide computing power needed for artificial intelligence. They are setting off a four-way battle among electric utilities trying to keep the lights on, tech companies that like to tout their climate credentials, consumers angry at rising electricity prices and regulators overseeing investments in the grid and trying to turn it green.

Ground zero for the fight is Northern Virginia’s “Data Center Alley.” About 70% of global internet traffic passes through the area’s data centers. A spider web of power lines connecting data centers to the grid crisscross neighborhoods and parks. More are coming. 

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/how-big-data-centers-are-slowing-the-shift-to-clean-energy-44ef4145?mod=itp_wsj

Precedence Research

https://www.precedenceresearch.com/hyperscale-data-center-market


3. China Large Cap Outperforming U.S. in 2024…FXI 12.35% vs. S&P 7.81%


4. Nike Holding Above 2022 Sell-Off Lows


5. Dominos Pizza New Highs

50 week thru 200 week on long-term chart


6. Venture Capital Valuations Still Above 2019 Levels

Cambridge Associates

2024 Outlook: Private Equity & Venture Capital


7. 800 ETFs Have Closes Since 2020

Bloomberg Katie Greifeld
Top-Heavy The nearly $9 trillion US ETF industry is famously top-heavy, with BlackRock Inc. and Vanguard Group accounting for about 60% of US assets. A similar dynamic is unfolding in the booming active ETF market.
Morningstar Inc. published a report this week that showed that 74% of the nearly $630 billion in US active ETFs is controlled by the top 10 issuers in a field of about 320 firms. In fact, Dimensional Fund Advisors and JPMorgan Asset Management are responsible for about 36% of total active ETF assets alone, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-04-26/binc-s-interest-rate-exposure-wzrd-and-chai-to-shut-down?utm_content=markets&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-markets&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&sref=GGda9y2L


8. Global Tik Tok Users 1.6B

What’s the Big Data Blog

https://whatsthebigdata.com/tiktok-statistics/


9. Cancer Mortality Rates Rolling Over

Food for Thought: Cancer mortality rates

Source: Our World in Data
The Daily Shot Brief https://dailyshotbrief.com/


10. Putin’s Losses

https://www.the-sun.com/news/11217826/putin-ukraine-russia-losses-tanks-soldiers-aircraft-intelligence/

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 April 29 2024

1. GOOGL New Highs


2. U.S. Banks $400B in Unrealized Losses


3. 43% of U.S. Market Cap Reporting Earnings this Week

Twits note the breakdown of earnings in the weeks to come.


4. Another Small Cap vs. Large Cap Stock Chart

Small cap stocks are about as cheap as they get versus large caps, says Callum Thomas at Topdown Charts, who provides the image below. “All those stories and narratives about Large Growth are already in the price, and then some. Longer-term contrarian minded investors should take note,” says Thomas.

SOURCE: TOPDOWN CHARTS


5. S&P vs. IWC Microcap Stocks

This chart compares S&P vs. Smallest U.S. stocks…straight up 2023 but failed to make new highs yet.


6. We are Fast Approaching the Amount of Public Companies Being Cut in Half Since 1990s


7. Europe 96% of $100m Companies are Private

Torsten Slok, Ph.D.-Chief Economist, Partner


8. We Showed Solar ETF Making New Lows Last Week….LIT Lithium ETF Close

Theme investing not easy …Solar and Lithium ETFs -50% from highs.


9. Global Wellness Economy $5.6 Trillion

Healthy Living and Travel Blog

https://www.healthylivingandtravel.com/global-wellness-economy-reaches-record-5-6-trillion/


10. Change in Downtowns Activity

Axios-Alex Fitzpatrick and Alice Feng

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/25/us-cities-downtown-data

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 April 26 2024

1. Stocks and Bonds Power Thru Post Rate Hikes

Capital Group


2. META Spending $40B on AI Capex

Traded right to support …-21% from highs…


3. Private Equity Buying Corporate Pensions

Semafor
Private equity’s latest trade: The financial futures of millions of retiree-Liz Hoffman


A brisk new trade in the financial futures of millions of retirees is unnerving some US workers, regulators, and politicians who worry that private equity firms will invest corporate pensions recklessly.
Recent lawsuits challenging AT&T, Lockheed, and Alcoa’s plans to turn their pensions over to Athene, which is owned by Apollo, casts a broader spotlight on private equity’s push into new corners of finance. Sen. Sherrod Brown has held hearings, cheered on by the Teamsters, and the Labor Department is weighing whether to require companies to at least consider whether an insurance business is owned by private equity before turning over their pensions.
Companies like AT&T and IBM don’t want to be in the retirement business. So they’ve been offloading their pension plans to insurance companies. The 773 deals last year broke 2022’s record of 568, according to Aon, which advises corporate pensions.

https://www.semafor.com/article/04/25/2024/private-equitys-latest-trade-corporate-pensions


4. Last Year Pundits Calling for Sell Off in U.S. Dollar ….Every Major Currency Down vs. U.S. Dollar

Jack Ablin-Cresset

https://cressetcapital.com/about/team/jack-ablin/


5. Covid Stock Teladoc Health…$300 Covid Highs  to $13 Pre-Market


6. Intel Chart ..$32 Pre-Market..Next Support is 2022 Levels


7. Energy Sector is Just 4% of S&P

All-Star Charts

https://allstarcharts.com/its-the-lack-of-exposure/ 
Found at Abnormal Returns blog www.abnormalreturns.com


8. Communism Sucks

Journal story from earlier in the week, citizens can’t sell their homes, but if they could exit….It would move to U.S. treasuries bonds and dollar
WSJ Cao Li —Zhao has moved away from the village, heading to the nearby city of Changchun, where there are more job opportunities. She said her property portfolio could be worth as much as $500,000, if only she could find a buyer.  And when she does sell, she has no plans to put the money back into China’s shaky property market.  
“How great it would be if I could sell them and use the proceeds to buy dollars, U.S. Treasury bonds, or bitcoin,” she said. FXI China ETF held 2022 low for now


9. Top Ranked Housing Markets

https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/rockford-illinois-housing-market-rankings-realtor-d304570c


10. Focus- James Clear

I.“If you feel resistance before you begin, it’s usually procrastination and you need to get started. If you feel resistance after you begin, it’s usually feedback and you need to make adjustments.”

​II. “Focus is how you knit the hours of the day together. With focus, the day becomes a beautiful tapestry. Without focus, you end up holding a bundle of loose string.”

III. “Anytime in my life when I have managed to go from a vision to a reality, the vision has not been a plan but a practice.


In other words, what matters is not having a vision, but rather making a habit of returning to and revising the vision. For the big things in my life, I’m always coming back to them week after week—sometimes day after day. As new information arrives, the vision gets updated. The dream becomes more crystallized over time. It’s a habit of thinking about where you want to go with an ever-increasing degree of clarity.

You do not need a vision, you need the practice of envisioning.” 

https://jamesclear.com/