Topley’s Top Ten – May 8, 2019

1.Leveraged VIX Trades Hit a Record Volume.

From Dave Lutz at Jones.

The fact that inversion occurred with futures expiration still over two weeks away gives us confidence that this move isn’t just noise (the front of the curve can be volatile near futures expiration) but is actually showing a demand for protection in the market,” said Vinay Viswanathan, an equity derivatives strategist at Macro Risk Advisors – There was record volume in TVIX, the 2x VIX ETF, yesterday

Continue reading

Topley’s Top Ten – May 6, 2019

1.Millennials Take Over…Barron’s Feature this Week

$1.4 trillion

Millennial spending will account for 25% of total U.S. retail sales in 2020,
or $1.4 trillion annually.

Source: Accenture
5 Stocks to Ride the Coming Wave of Millennial Spending
Daren Fonda

https://www.barrons.com/articles/millennial-spending-is-about-to-soar-and-these-stocks-could-soar-with-it-51556928856?mod=past_editions

Continue reading

Topley’s Top Ten – May 2, 2019

1.Global Semiconductor Sales Plunge After Stocks Make New High.

Did Someone Turn Off the Spigot? Global Semiconductor Sales Plunge Most Since the Financial Crisis

by Wolf Richter • Apr 30, 2019 • 73 Comments • Email to a friend

According to chip makers, the plunge isn’t over yet. Now hoping it won’t turn into the mess as in 2001 when the last tech bubble became the dotcom bust.

Global semiconductor sales dropped 15.5% in the first quarter, from the fourth quarter last year, to $96.8 billion, the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization reported Monday afternoon. The three-month moving average in March has now plunged 25% from the three-month moving average at the peak last October, the deepest plunge since the Financial Crisis:

Demand was down across all regional markets: The global 15.5% drop in sales from Q4 2018 to Q1 2019 split up regionally this way – and the problem isn’t just China:

  • Americas: -29.2%
  • China: -14.5%
  • Japan: -13.8%
  • Asia Pacific/All Other: -10.4%
  • Europe: -3.1%

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/04/30/did-someone-turn-off-the-spigot-global-semiconductor-sales-plunge-most-since-the-financial-crisis/

Continue reading

Topley’s Top Ten – April 30, 2019

1.WeWork IPO…Second Biggest Offering of the Year….$1.9B in Losses Last Year.

The co-working company told employees yesterday that it has confidentially filed paperwork with the SEC to go public.

WeWork reportedly hasn’t picked bankers yet, and an offering wouldn’t happen until the third or fourth quarter of this year. But there’s more you should know about 2019’s latest mega-offering.

It’s as meaty as a WeWork company card will allow

A WeWork IPO would likely be the second-biggest offering in the U.S. this year behind Uber. WeWork was last valued at $47 billion and has 400,000 members in 100 cities.

  • Still, it’s burning through cash. Though WeWork’s revenue doubled last year to $1.8 billion, its losses more than doubled to $1.9 billion.

It’s not just WeWork

It’s the We Company after a rebranding earlier this year to focus on more than just the short-term office space rental service that (along with its notorious tenant Morning Brew) made it famous. Now, it’s diversified into businesses like housing, a children’s school, and a coding academy.

Wherefore the rebrand? Fend off skepticism over WeWork’s ability to withstand a market downturn, when fewer D2C birdseed startups will look for low-commitment office space. But we may always need apartments for “modern-day nomads.”

And speaking of skeptics…there are plenty. WeWork is a “love it or hate it” company, writes Axios. A “person close to the company” told Axios WeWork could become the second-most shorted stock after Tesla.

But as for believers…

WeWork is no mere co-working company. It serves a higher purpose.

From CEO Adam Neumann: “As one of the world’s largest physical networks, it is our responsibility to help lead the way and set the global example for people and corporations on how we should take care of each other and of our planet.”

https://www.morningbrew.com/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-07/wework-bonds-trade-like-ccc-on-softbank-adding-to-rating-puzzle

Continue reading