TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 30, 2024

1. China Large Cap Chart

Held 2022 lows just broke above 2023 high


2. China Small Cap

Held previous low….Still moved to positive return for 2024


3. Emerging Markets +5.5% Last Week

Big technical level in play…50week about to go thru 200week to upside.


4. Emerging Markets Still Below 2020 Highs

Another technical level…watch for breakout to new high.


5. Everything Rally Since August

Source: Jim Paulsen

From Spilled Coffee Blog https://www.spilledcoffee.co/


6. Micron Chart

Retraced all of 2024 gains before this week’s rally, still well below 2024 highs.


7. Biotech Sideways for 5 Years….New Venture Rounds Picking Up

Biotech ETF still below 2021 highs.

Venture Mega Rounds Returning WSJ By Brian Gormley  Venture mega-rounds are on the rise in biotechnology as the outlook for the industry brightens.  Sixty-eight U.S. and European biotech startups raised venture financings of $100 million or more this year through Aug. 31, putting this year on track to at least approach the 106 mega-rounds closed in 2021, the highest number on record, according to Silicon Valley Bank.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/venture-mega-rounds-return-to-biotech-1f639d04?mod=biotech_news_article_pos3


8. Hezbollah Chain of Command Wiped Out.

https://www.the-sun.com/news/12557338/mystery-hezbollah-leader-nasrallah-lebanon-israel


9. How Much Doctors Make by Specialty


10. 10 Things I Learned from Mark Cuban

Robert Herjavec   Emmy Award Winner 🏆 Entrepreneur | Investor | Cybersecurity Expert Lead Shark on Shark Tank 🦈 Author | Mentor | Car Enthusiast Constant, Forward Momentum 🚀

I have now been doing Shark Tank for almost 20 years. Kevin O’Leary and I started with the show in Canada (called Dragon’s Den) and did it there for about five years. Now, we have been doing it in the United States for 17 years. I have also done two seasons of Shark Tank in Australia. I love the show. I love how it inspires people and teaches everyone the language and opportunity of business. I get a lot of motivation and energy from all the people that come and pitch to us, but I also get a lot of energy and knowledge from the other Sharks and Dragons. These are some of the most amazing businesspeople I have had the pleasure to meet, and I get to hang out with them. How cool is that?
This is Mark’s last season on the show—while we will miss him, the power of the show will certainly continue. It has made me reflect on all the amazing things I have learned from Mark. Mark is a big guy—in all things—and his presence fills every room. I was probably not confident enough in myself at the time to not let that intimidate me.
Over the years, I have gained a massive amount of respect for him. He is a great guy, not just in business, but also fun, family-loving, pure of heart, highly competitive, and a good friend. I will never forget, one time when I was going through some difficult times, the first Shark to call me and check in was Mark.
I will never forget that, and if I haven’t said thank you for that, let me say it here. But let me say thank you more for all the valuable lessons I have been fortunate enough to learn from you. And no, I am not paying you for them, Mark! You simply get my undying gratitude.

Beware the one in the T-shirt (not the one in the suit)
I remember when I first met Mark, I was surprised at how “badly” he dressed. I had pictured a guy worth that kind of money in designer outfits—not necessarily in a suit and tie, but maybe some casual Brunello Cucinelli. In fact, I think at one point I said to Mark, “Why do you dress so badly?” (jokingly), and he said (not jokingly), “Because I can.” I didn’t get it at the time, but he was right. He has nothing to prove, and most rooms he walks into, people are selling to him. When you’re the one being sold to, you can wear whatever the hell you want. Chances are, if you walk into a room and there’s a bunch of suits, beware the person wearing the T-shirt. They probably worked their ass off to get to a point where they can wear whatever they want, and the odds are the suits work for the person in the T-shirt.

Lesson: Everyone has a thing—Mark’s thing isn’t clothes or cars. Never judge someone by their “thing” because it may not be your thing. I stopped having to wear a suit a long time ago, but I still like a good Tom Ford suit. When I first started out, I worked for six months part-time at a high-end men’s shop so I could get a discount to buy my first quality suit. Dressing well means something to me. I love cars, Mark couldn’t care less. Cars excite me; to Mark, they’re just basic transportation. Everyone has their own thing. Not sure I’ll ever be the Mark Cuban T-shirt-wearing guy. The difference is, I don’t wear clothes to impress anyone anymore because I don’t need to. My advice: when you’re starting out, dress to impress—until you’re the one they need to impress. It’s fine to be the T-shirt guy, but until you “make it,” show some respect and dress for the situation.

Expect to Win – Always
One day between shooting pitches, I was working on a big deal and asked Mark, “Every time you do a deal or compete, do you expect to win?” Mark, without hesitation, said, “Yes, I expect to win every time.” I then asked, “What if it doesn’t work out?” He simply said, “It will.” I loved that—absolute sheer confidence in the results, and more importantly, in himself. Another friend of mine (and guest Shark) wrote a book on this recently called Burn the Boats. It’s basically about abandoning Plan B and only focusing on Plan A. Even having a Plan B gives you the option of not winning at Plan A.
This was such an “aha” moment for me. I have to admit, it wasn’t my natural mindset. I wasn’t born with that level of confidence—it’s something I had to work on very hard. My background was as an immigrant—shy, poor, came here on a boat, everyone made fun of me, etc. My mindset was, “I am determined to win, but I should have a backup plan.” Maybe this is an immigrant thing—the fear of going back to where you came from. Lots of Plan Bs my entire life.

Lesson: I think this thought pattern works for some people, and I think it can be very risky. You have to expect to win, but I believe when you’re building a large-scale business, you have to take calculated risks. I still believe you should never make a bet that risks losing the entire farm. But I have to admit, as I’ve been more successful, while I may not have bet the entire farm, I’ve certainly bet the horses, cows, and chickens to grow my farm.
It’s a balance, and it depends on where you are in life. Along these lines, one day I asked Mark, “Did you always expect to be rich?” He said, “When I was 12, I knew I was going to be rich.” I loved that answer and admired it because it was so different from my upbringing. When I was 12, I didn’t even think about being rich—I just didn’t want to be poor. Small distinction in some ways, but huge in others.

The Bigger You Get – The Bigger the Bullseye on Your Back
As successful as Mark is, his work ethic is still unbelievable. The man works his ass off. You’d think that, at his level, you wouldn’t have to work that hard, but it’s absolutely not true. There’s a fallacy that you can relax and coast at a certain point—and that is usually the point of decline. Remember when you started your business? You were the little guy, taking on the world. It was exciting, it was fun, and you wanted to take the big guy down. Well, once you get bigger and become “the guy,” someone wants to take you down. And that someone is willing to work 24/7 to do so.

Lesson: To stay on top, you have to work like someone is trying to steal it from you—because the odds are, someone is. And they’re willing to work 24 hours a day to do it—are you?

Time Kills All Deals
We had been shooting the show for three years in the U.S. even before Mark got on board. Obviously, he was very wealthy, but just having more money than another Shark wasn’t going to win deals. The people coming on the show need to get the amount of money they’re asking for, and in really good deals, we all become very competitive. Before Mark, we had all found ways to compete with each other—I’m a better Shark for this or that reason.
Mark came on and introduced something new—speed. I remember the very first time he did it, he made an offer and said, “I’m putting you on the 24-second shot clock.” I hate to admit it (not being a big basketball guy), but I didn’t even know what that meant. For those of you also not basketball fans, in basketball, you have 24 seconds to make a shot when you have the ball. If you don’t shoot during that time, you lose possession, and the opportunity is gone—the 24-second shot clock. The pitcher was confused—did he really mean it? What was going on? The rest of the Sharks all chimed in. I forget whether he actually got that deal, but he used it again many times in other deals, and it usually worked. He also brought in the idea of just taking the deal—quickly. You’d have a couple of Sharks negotiating for a deal. One would say, “I’ll give you $200K for 20%,” and another would say, “I’ll give you $200K for 18%,” and so on. The pitcher would respond, “Would you do $200K for 16%?”—and Mark, out of the blue, would say, “I’ll take that deal if you say yes right now.” And more often than not, it would work.

Lesson: Speed forces people to make a decision, and there’s the old saying: time kills all deals. When you force someone to make a decision quickly, you often get to see what they’re actually thinking. Most people have a hard time thinking that fast under stress, and their true self comes out. The other benefit is, if you aren’t going to get a deal, it’s better to know today than to waste time tomorrow.

Two Airplanes Are Better Than One – But Why Do You Care?
Most of the Sharks were doing an event at a high school one time (kids absolutely love our show), and one of the kids asked me, “Why do you still work so hard?” I was trying to be funny (believe it or not, all of us think we’re pretty funny), and said, “So I can buy a bigger jet than Mark.” I was joking and being flippant and cute. Mark said, “Which jet?”—meaning he had multiple jets. It kind of shut me up. If I’m being honest, it threw me for a loop. Not only did I realize my answer was stupid, but more importantly, it made me realize—how in the world was I ever going to afford a bigger jet? I had absolutely worked my ass off to get to the point of buying a plane, but Mark’s plane was twice the size of mine, and not only that, he had multiple planes. That thought just didn’t compute for me.
And then it hit me—why do I care? Did I work all this time, and sacrifice so much, to buy a plane, a car, more stuff? What was I doing? And why did it bother me? And most importantly, why do I care—because no one else does. But it really made me think. I had never been that money-driven—I was always success-driven. And now that I had some success and some nice stuff, I cared about other people’s stuff?
It made me step back and realize I had lost my way. As well as I was doing, I had lost the purpose and the focus that got me to where I was. It wasn’t about the stuff—it was about doing great things and having purpose. It wasn’t about competing with Mark or anyone else—it was about being the best I could be. Living to my potential—no one else’s. I had lost that bearing in my compass, and that simple answer from Mark brought me back—quickly.

Lesson: Know your why. There will always be someone with a bigger car, bigger jet, nicer watch, whatever. But it’s not about that—and it never was for me. Don’t get me wrong, I love nice and fun stuff, but I didn’t work so hard just to get nicer stuff. I had purpose, and I had clarity in that goal: take care of my family, help others, inspire people, make the lives of the people who work with me better. I wanted to make an impact on the world. Those are things that last—the stuff comes and goes.
Never forget your purpose—there is no greatness without great purpos

The Right and Wrong Time to Sell a Business
A number of years ago, someone offered me an enormous amount of money to buy my business. When I say enormous, I mean well over $100 million—all cash. Back then, that was a lot of money to me, and I was focused on the money and tempted to take it. I happened to be hanging out with Mark, and I told him about it—and asked whether I should take it or not. His answer was, “You should only sell your business in three cases: 1) You don’t want to do it anymore; 2) You don’t think it can continue to grow; or 3) The money will fundamentally change your life.” That was it—knee-jerk answer. I couldn’t stop thinking about it. Did I want to do it? Hell yeah, I loved my business. I believed in it and wanted to keep doing it. His point was: if you’re not 100% into it, business is so competitive, someone else will kick your ass because they will be 100% into it. Did I believe we could continue to grow? Absolutely. My business is cybersecurity, and at the time (and still do), I felt that it was just the tip of the iceberg. Would the money change my life? No, not really. Don’t get me wrong, for a poor immigrant kid, that kind of money was extraordinary. But would it change my life? I was already richer than I had hoped for when I started—I’d just be more rich with the money. And I loved my business and woke up every day ready to fight the good fight.
I didn’t do it, and of course, I regretted it as soon as the buyer walked away! But guess what? Two weeks later, I didn’t care. We kept growing and adding value, and lo and behold, a few years later, I ended up selling a piece of the business for many hundreds of millions more than someone was going to pay me for the entire company. And then I kept going and built a $1 billion company with the remainder.

Lesson: Know when to sell and be brutally honest with yourself. People often ask me, “Which sale changed your life the most?” I sold my first business for $600K, my second business for $30 million, and my last business, I sold a piece of it for many hundreds of millions. Which one changed my life the most? The first one—the $600K. I was such a nervous, scared kid, but selling that business for $600K in my 20s allowed me to pay off my mortgage and own a house. As an immigrant, that was my parents’ dream—they worked a lifetime to pay off their house, and I did it in my 20s. That gave me the freedom to take bigger risks, and the courage to do so.

Time is More Important Than Money
Mark says this all the time, but in fairness, so do most of my ultra-successful friends. Time is the only commodity you can’t get back or buy more of—and it’s true. Another lady I admire, Codie Sanchez, said, “You’re young and you’re broke, but every old billionaire would trade spots with you in a second.” And it’s true. I’m old—I don’t feel it, and I probably don’t look it, but I’ve already lived longer than both my parents. Time. I could always make more money, but I cannot make more time. Don’t waste what you’ve been given.
This one, I very much believe. Do it now—that trip you wanted to take, that company you wanted to start, that person you wanted to ask out—do it now. A life lived with regret is a life wasted. We are all here for a limited amount of time—make it worthwhile. Make it great. And by the way, if you don’t love your business and you’re doing it just to get more stuff, you’re probably wasting time.

Lesson: You can’t make more time, but you can make more money. Be wise about where you spend your time, and learn to say NO. Odds are, there are far too many time vampires in your life right now

Once Everyone Knows the Answer, the Opportunity is Probably Gone
Have you ever been wrong when everyone else was right? How did that make you feel? On the flip side, have you ever been right when everyone else was wrong? Mark was one of the first people to stream basketball games on the internet. At the time, that seemed like a not very good idea, considering you could do that for free on the radio. Everyone said he was wrong. Mark saw the opportunity and ended up selling that business for $6 billion. By then, everyone knew he was right. I never met Howard Schultz, but I did buy his old plane. Incredible attention to detail. I flew into Seattle one time to inspect his plane. I landed, and when the pilots opened the door, I walked onto the tarmac, and there was his assistant holding a silver tray with a cup of Starbucks coffee (how I like it—she had called my assistant ahead of time to find out) and a card from Howard. She said, “Mr. Schultz apologizes that he wasn’t able to meet you in person; he had to go to China, but he sends his card and asks that you call him anytime convenient for you.” Amazing level of detail. I read a story one time that Howard went to 300 VCs to get funding for Starbucks—a coffee shop where people would hang out and pay a premium for coffee—when there were already thousands of coffee shops. Everyone thought he was wrong. He thought he was right. Howard is now worth many billions of dollars, and Starbucks is a $100 billion company.
When I started my first business, I thought large companies would need to protect their employees online. Clients used to say to me, “We don’t allow internet access for users for personal stuff. We don’t need security.” I said, “You can’t stop people from accessing information, and you do need it.” Many people thought I was wrong, but I was right, and I created a billion-dollar business out of it.

Lesson: Get comfortable with being the contrarian, because that is usually where the opportunity is. To create great wealth and great value, you are probably going to make bets that others cannot see. And sometimes you are going to be wrong. But most successful people are more concerned about creating value than fitting in. It’s OK to be wrong—you only need to be right once. And when you’re right, let your winnings run.

There Are No Participation Trophies – Trophies Are Only for Winners
Mark is a highly competitive guy—in all things. One time, after a particularly heated and competitive negotiation for a deal against a couple of other Sharks, I asked him what he liked about the deal. He simply said, “Not sure, I just wanted to mess with the other Shark and win the deal.” If there’s a push-up contest, he wants to compete and win. Basketball—he loves the competition, but he wants to win. He loves to compete in all things. I had a guy that worked for me who was a huge Dirk Nowitzki fan, and it was his dream to meet him. We happened to be in Dallas for a game, and I reached out to Mark to see if he could arrange it. He said, “No problem, but not before the game; I want the guys focused on winning.” Winning first—always.

Lesson: If you’re going to play the game, play to win. And in order to win, you have to love to compete. Business isn’t flag football. It’s not feely, fluffy, touchy—it’s full-on, contact. I used to have a saying behind my desk: “Every day, someone wakes up with the sole intention of kicking your ass.” Keep that in mind.

You Only Need to Be Right Once
People often think that you have to win all the time in business, that you go from one win to another. Mark always says you only need to win once—and that’s all people will remember. And it’s true—no one remembers all the times I failed; they only remember my wins.

Lesson: Business is actually survival from one setback to another, constantly fighting to stay in the game. But here’s the beauty of life—you only need to win once. People remember Mark’s sale for $6 billion, people remember the Mavs winning the NBA championship. People don’t remember all the crappy seasons, all the setbacks. You just have to stay in the game and live to fight another day. And never forget—fortune favors the bold, but sometimes fortune just favors the lucky. And if you survive long enough, why can’t you get lucky?

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/top-10-things-i-learned-from-mark-cuban-robert-herjavec-yd5yc/?trackingId=rd%2FqTFYl1UK8M2wtP6e7%2FA%3D%3D

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 25, 2024

1. Stocks Go Up When Earnings Go Up


2. Retail Investors More Concentrated than S&P

Retail portfolios. Nvidia and Apple account for over 20% of the average retail investor’s portfolio.

Vanda Research via @beursanalist

3. NVIDIA Still Below Highs


4. Chinese Tech Bounces But Still Sideways 3 Years

KWEB China Internet ETF


5. Uranium ETF Charts

URA Closes back above 200-day on daily chart.


6. Small Caps Need Lower Rates More than Ever

Credit: Small caps are facing a steeper debt maturity wall than large caps.

Source: BofA Global Research; @MikeZaccardi


7. Commercial Property Prices Rose 3% this Year

Bloomberg


8. U.S. Home Prices Hit New Highs as 30-Year Mortgage About to Break 6% Level


 

9. Top English as Second Language Countries


 

10. Ben Carlson -2 Things That Helped His Career

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 24, 2024

1. Since 2015 S&P Big Outperformance….How About 30 Years?

Over 30 Years Equal Weight (RSP), IJH Mid-Cap, and IJR Small Cap All Beat S&P
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright–The “core” of domestic equities, represented by the S&P 500, has dominated the market over the last decade.
Since 2015, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up 178%, handily besting the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), iShares S&P Mid Cap 400 Index Fund (IJH), and iShares S&P Small Cap 600 Index Fund (IJR) by 50% in cumulative return. However, the core of the market hasn’t always been the area of strength within US Equities. In fact, the cap weighted S&P 500 has underperformed all three of the other previously mentioned indices across the last 30 years (since the start of 95′). While that alone is interesting, you may be surprised by which group sits atop the list: the S&P Mid Cap 400 Index (IJH).


2. 10% Plus Per Year Sales Growth is Rare

From Zach Goldberg at Jefferies
GS noted, it’s hard to grow revenues fast for long. There are many examples of companies that can grow sales by more than 10% in a year, even 2 years, but very few examples of companies that can grow sales more than 10% year-after-year. Persistently high growth is rare and special — and unusual; the odds are against it happening


3. S&P Best Performance 2024 is not NVDA….VST +180%


4. Crypto High Correlation to Stocks Right Now

From The Daily Chartbook 
Crypto vs. stocks. “A 40-day correlation coefficient for a gauge of the largest 100 digital assets and the S&P 500 Index is at about 0.67, a level exceeded only in the second quarter of 2022 when it topped 0.72.”

Suvashree Ghosh – Bloomberg


5. China Double Bottom?


6. Rare Air-S&P Positive 35 of Past 52 Weeks

Sherwood News
But over the past year, the S&P 500’s rise has been unusually consistent. In 35 of the past 52 weeks, the benchmark US index has gained. This is rarefied air: going back to March 1957, only 5% of the time has the S&P 500 posted more weekly wins over a one-year span.

https://sherwood.news/markets/stock-market-weekly-relentless-rise


7. Post Rate Cut Returns Near All-Time S&P Highs


8. Teen Girls’ Brains Aged Rapidly During Pandemic, Study Finds

NYT- By Ellen Barry
Neuroimaging found girls experienced cortical thinning far faster than boys did during the first year of Covid lockdowns

The thinning of the cortex is seen by scientists as the brain rewiring itself as it matures.Credit…Institute for Learning and Brain Sciences, University of Washington

A study of adolescent brain development that tested children before and after coronavirus pandemic lockdowns in the United States found that girls’ brains aged far faster than expected, something the researchers attributed to social isolation.

The study from the University of Washington, published on Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, measured cortical thinning, a process that starts in either late childhood or early adolescence, as the brain begins to prune redundant synapses and shrink its outer layer.
Thinning of the cortex is not necessarily bad; some scientists frame the process as the brain rewiring itself as it matures, increasing its efficiency. But the process is known to accelerate in stressful conditions, and accelerated thinning is correlated with depression and anxiety.

Scans taken in 2021, after shutdowns started to lift, showed that both boys and girls had experienced rapid cortical thinning during that period. But the effect was far more notable in girls, whose thinning had accelerated, on average, by 4.2 years ahead of what was expected; the thinning in boys’ brains had accelerated 1.4 years ahead of what was expected.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/09/health/teen-brains-pandemic-girls.html


9. The Tax Code Grew in Length by 40% 1994-2021

Barrons By Karen Hube 
The tax code grew in length by 40% to about four million words between 1994 and 2021 and has expanded steadily since, and that pales when compared with ballooning regulations published annually to interpret the changes, along with tax court case law that sets precedents for how the tax code applies in specific circumstances.  From 2000 to 2022, the Department of Treasury’s annual volume of regulations grew 35% to 17,631 pages from 13,070, according to the National Taxpayers Union Foundation.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/filing-taxes-harris-trump-11f8de34?mod=past_editions


10. Put Yourself in Position for Success -Farnam Street Blog

“So much of life isn’t about intelligence or luck but putting yourself in a position for success.

The cash-rich investor thrives in crashes. The well-rested athlete outperforms the exhausted star. The student who studies daily aces the pop quiz. The employee who leaves early gets to the meeting with the CEO on time while the other person sits in the unanticipated traffic. All seem lucky, but they’ve positioned themselves to succeed.

Master your circumstances before they master you.”

https://fs.blog/

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 23, 2024

1. Chart of Week-Fundstrat

Many investors wonder if the economy is late cycle. But as Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee points out, businesses became cautious about over-expanding in early 2022, when the Fed began signaling intentions to raise interest rates sharply. They have remained cautious ever since. “The private investment-to-GDP ratio sits at 25%, below the long-term average of 27%, and with the exception of the pandemic, no major recession has started since 1970 without this figure exceeding 28%,” he told us this week. Our Chart of the Week illustrates this

 

 


2. Coming Margin Expansion in AI?

Source: Sam Ro


3. Computer Processing Power +3440% 2015-2023

Food for Thought: Computational capacity of the fastest supercomputer:

Source: BofA Global Research; @MikeZaccardi
https://dailyshotbrief.com


4. Small Cap Russell 2000-7 Straight Days of Gains-First Time in 3 ½ Years

Bespoke Investment Group
The latest rally in the Russell 2000 has also been impressive given that yesterday was the seventh straight day of gains for the index which is the longest winning streak for the index in three and a half years. Seven-day winning streaks are by no means uncommon or extreme in the Russell 2000’s history. As shown in the chart below, since 1980 there have been 110 other winning streaks of at least seven trading days, and the longest was more than three times longer at 22 in March 1988.  What is interesting about the chart below, however, is how common 7-day winning streaks were from 1980 through the dot com bust (86 from 1980 through the end of 2022) and how uncommon they have been since (24 since 2003).

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/bespokes-morning-lineup-9-20-24-closing-out-the-week-on-a-down-note


5. New Highs for 60/40 Portfolio

Source: Josh Schafer


6. A More Stable Financial System in U.S.

Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management
Long-term loans to corporates are moving away from being financed by overnight deposits to instead being financed by long-term liabilities such as insurance and pensions, thereby making the financial system more stable, see chart below

 


7. AT&T Breaks Out of 12-Year Sideways Pattern


8. Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Barrons-By Avi Salzman

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-china-went-from-climate-laggard-to-leader-of-the-energy-transition-05d1d267?mod=past_editions


 

9. Global Coal Consumption Is Still Soaring…

Zerohedge BY TYLER DURDEN
Despite efforts to decarbonize the economy, global coal consumption surpassed 164 exajoules for the first time in 2023. The fossil fuel still accounts for 26% of the world’s total energy consumption.
In this graphic, Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti shows global coal consumption by region from 1965 to 2023, based on data from the Energy Institute.

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/global-coal-consumption-still-soaring


10. Have a Hard Time Making Decisions? How to Be More Decisive

 

Life is about choosing: Time to clear out the obstacles. Robert Taibbi L.C.S.W.

KEY POINTS

  • Living life is about making decisions, but if you fear making a “wrong” decision, you can become immobilized.
  • The underlying obstacles are self-criticism and worry about future regrets and what others may think.
  • The key is to realize when anxiety has taken over—you can’t control the future or make everyone happy.

Like it or not, everyday life is a factory of decision-making: What to wear for a first date, whether to take the new job, whether to circle back to the argument you had on Saturday night with your partner, or what to make for a dinner with friends. Some decisions are bigger, some smaller, but making choices is always a part of running your life. But because decisions have consequences, decision-making can often be challenging; for some, even minor decisions can feel like big ones. If you have a difficult time making up your mind, here are three common underlying obstacles along with ways to resolve them to help you be more decisive.

You’re self-critical or perfectionistic.

If you tend to be self-critical, always giving yourself a hard time over some “mistake,” or worse, are perfectionistic, needing everything to come out perfectly, every decision—the clothes, the job, the dinner, and the argument—feels equally important. Your mind flips through a checklist of criteria your decision needs to meet: Is this what I really want? Am I overreacting? Is the timing right? What will others think?

Consequences: You start to obsess, and that checklist is long. So you go online and look at dress combinations, make endless pro-and-con lists about the job, scour through dozens of recipes, and plug in multiple AIquestions to compose the perfect sentence that tells your partner how you feel without creating resentment.

Solution: Your brain is telling you that the only way to put this to rest is to work harder to get it right—get more information so you don’t make a mistake. But the real problem isn’t what to wear or say, but that your self-critical or perfectionistic mind has taken over, pressuring you to make every decision, however small, the right one.

Time to get your rational brain back online: Realize that every decision doesn’t have the same weight—the job may be more important than the dinner—and that you’re spinning your wheels going down rabbit holes. Next, take concrete action to move forward: Talk to someone who works at the potential job about their experience or ask for a follow-up interview to answer your lingering questions; say what you want to say to your partner, and if they get defensive, back off but circle back later to mop up and clarify. Only by moving forward, no matter how small the baby steps, will you discover what to do next.

You worry about having future regrets.

This is a variation of the other. Even if you know what you want to do, you worry about the results in the future: You’ll take the job, but you’ll wind up hating it; you’ll talk to your partner, but it won’t go well, and your bringing it up will only add fuel to the emotional fire, eventually leading to divorce.

Consequences: Obsessing all future worst-case scenarios undermines your confidence in your decision.

Solution: Just as it’s easy to go down rabbit holes of information, you can do the same with future worst-case scenarios. The reality check is that not only can’t you control the future, but your past is constantly being recreated through the lens of the present: If two years from now you’re happy at the new job, you’ll not only pat yourself on the back for making a good decision but also think you should have switched jobs sooner. If you’re miserable two years from now, you’ll wish you had stayed at your old job. It’s a moving target. The best you can do is the best you can do right now. You can only deal with future problems if and when they arise.

You worry that others will judge your decisions.

I’ve met folks who struggle with decisions because they worry that “other people” won’t approve of their choices. This fear is usually part of a learned childhood hypervigilance where “I’m happy only if the whole world is happy.”

Consequences: The thinking is understandable, but the solution is not. You can’t be sensitive to the whole world. With that large an audience looking over your shoulder, you get paralyzed.

Solution: You may care what those close to you think, and you want to be assertive and help them understand why you’re doing what you’re doing, but agreement isn’t always necessary. Worrying that you need to explain yourself to those outside your intimate circle pushes you off course from what you want; you wind up living their lives, not yours.

The underlying driver is anxiety.

Indecisiveness is a solution to the problem of creating the right outcome, whether it is about making your present plan work out the way you want, having no regrets in the future, or making everyone happy. The best you can do is make the best decision in the present and see what happens. If it works out, great—good for you. If not, it’s not because you screwed up, but you now have a new problem, and hopefully you’ve learned what not to do. Take each problem and each decision one at a time.

The key is seeing anxiety as the driver, stepping back, and realizing that your anxious brain is taking over—causing you to obsess and fall into little-kid emotions and irrational thinking. Stop doing what your anxious brain tells you to do; realize that your thoughts are running you rather than you running your thoughts.

Learning to be decisive is learning not to let anxiety run your life, learning that there are no mistakes, focusing on doing the best you can right now, recognizing that all decisions are not equally important, and accepting that you can control only this moment.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/fixing-families/202409/have-a-hard-time-making-decisions-how-to-be-more-decisive

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 20, 2024

1. Largest Fed Pause Rally in History Before 50 bps. Cut

 

 


2. Will Lower Rates Spark Small Caps?

R2K streak. The Russell 2000 has now risen for 7 days in a row, a feat accomplished only 27 other times while also trading above the 200SMA. Forward returns have been mixed.

SentimenTrader


3. Fed Wants to Close Gap

Found at Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com


4. 247 BPS by 2026

Irrelevant Investor Blo


5. Gold History After First Fed Cuts

Gold vs. first cut. “After a cut, there has only been one time, 1998, when gold has trended significantly lower after a rate cut throughout the next year, and even then, close to the one-year mark, it surged as the Dot Com crash started.”

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/research/think-big-blog/


6. Fed Cuts Outside Recession History

Capital Group

 


7. Household Assets Elevated vs. Liabilities


8. 30-Year Mortgage Getting Close to Breaking 6% Mark


 

9. American People Dislikes Federal Government, Advertising and Pharma


10. The Daily Stoic

As we work and achieve, we pile up titles and money. We accumulate assets and influence. We build a life, as they say. And a life is made up of things: Our job. Our house. Our car. Our relationships. Our reputation.
Looking around at what we possess, what we’ve poured so much sweat and blood into, is an immensely rewarding experience. As Margaret Atwood writes in a beautiful poem,
The moment when, after many years
of hard work and a long voyage
you stand in the centre of your room,
house, half-acre, square mile, island, country,
knowing at last how you got there,
and say, I own this,
But the Stoic knows that we never really own anything. All that we possess in this life, Marcus Aurelius says, even life itself, is really ours only in trust. We are renters. Our lives are here on loan…loans that can get called in at any time. We can be fired. Someone can dislodge our seemingly dominant market position. A loved one can leave. People die.
That’s why Margaret Atwood warns against the pride and satisfaction of surveying one’s possessions. The moment you do that, she says, nature rebels. Almost out of spite, they feel the need to rebuke you for your pride.
No, they whisper. You own nothing.
You were a visitor, time after time
climbing the hill, planting the flag, proclaiming.
We never belonged to you.
You never found us.
It was always the other way round.
None of us own anything. Everything is constantly in flux. What we have today may be gone tomorrow—we ourselves may be gone tomorrow. Understand that. Appreciate everything accordingly. Be grateful and humble…or life will rebuke you. Fate will remind you who is in charge and nature will reclaim what is hers.