TOPLEY’S TOP 10 January 26, 2026

1. Government Shutdown Betting on Polymarket Explodes

James Bianco


2. Hyperscalers Debt is a Small Part of EBITA

It’s that flood—and not default risks—that worry many analysts. Microsoft’s gross debt is only 0.22 times its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda, which means it could theoretically pay all its debt in under three months. Alphabet has the next best ratio at 0.49 times, while Amazon’s leverage ratio is 0.56 times and Meta’s is 0.57 times. Even including lease commitments barely moves the needle, except for Amazon, whose leverage ratio rises above a still unconcerning 1. Barrons

Barron’s


3. S&P 500 Margin Expansion All Tech-Torston Slok

The Daily Spark


4. Skyrocket on ETF Fund Flows….$400B in 3 Months

Fund Flows: meanwhile, as documented previously, sentiment is running hot — and here’s the latest sentiment snippet showing speculative splurging into equity ETFs.

Tracy Shuchart


5. Vanguard Value (VTV) Outperforming Growth (VUG) by 6% to Start 2026

YCharts


6. Healthcare Market Cap as a Percent of S&P Market Cap at 1995 Lows

Kailash Concepts


7. Tether Freezes $182M USDT in Largest-Ever Crackdown — Is Venezuela’s Crypto Lifeline Under Siege?

Key Takeaways

  • Tether froze $182 million in USDT across five Tron wallets on Jan. 11, 2026, marking one of its most significant single-day actions to date.
  • This occurred amid Venezuela’s heavy reliance on USDT for oil trade, with 80% of PDVSA revenue now in stablecoins to evade sanctions.
  • The freeze highlights USDT’s dual role: lifeline for Venezuelans facing hyperinflation, yet a tool for compliance with U.S. authorities targeting illicit flows.

Prediction Market powered by

Tether, the issuer of USDT, has carried out its largest asset freeze to date, sparking speculation that the funds may be linked to Venezuela.

This action comes amid escalating scrutiny over USDT’s role in Venezuela, where the stablecoin has become a critical financial tool for both the government and citizens to navigate U.S. sanctions, hyperinflation, and economic isolation.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tether-freezes-182m-usdt-largest-105442400.html


8. 10 Most Powerful Air Forces

Visual Capitalist


9. #1 Cause of Disease Inflammation-Dr.Hyman

Mark Hyman


10. Keep Forgetting Things? To Improve Your Memory and Recall, Science Says Start Taking Notes (by Hand)

And then do a quick review the next morning. BY JEFF HADEN @JEFF_HADEN

When I spoke at the Arabian Business Awards a few years ago, I showed a slide describing research that shows meetings literally make people dumber: a study published in Transcripts of the Royal Society of London found that meetings cause you to (during the meeting) lose IQ points.

A bunch of people in the audience took photos of that slide.

The same was true when I presented a slide describing research published in Journal of Business Research showing that not only do 90 percent of employees feel meetings are unproductive, but when the number of meetings is reduced by 40 percent employee productivity increases by 70 percent.

A bunch of people took photos of that slide, too.

Both findings seem easy to remember, if only because the research confirms what most people feel about meetings: Most of the time, the only person who thinks a meeting is important is the person who called the meeting. But what if you really wanted to remember that meetings tend to make participants dumber, and tend to negatively impact overall productivity?

Or, more broadly, have a better shot of remembering things you really want to remember? Don’t take photos. 

In a study published in Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, researchers evaluated the effectiveness of a variety of memory-boosting strategies: taking photos, typing notes, and writing notes by hand.

As you can probably guess, people who wrote notes by hand scored the highest on subsequent recall and comprehension tests, even when people who took photos or typed verbatim notes were allowed to review those items before they took the tests.

Or maybe you couldn’t guess that: The researchers also found that “learners were not cognizant of the advantages of longhand note-taking, but misjudged all three techniques to be equally effective.”

So why does taking notes by hand work so well? According to the researchers:

Longhand note-takers mind-wandered less and, in turn, demonstrated superior retention of the lecture content.

Which makes sense. Taking a photo requires no “mental participation” at all. You don’t have to consider, synthesize, decide how you’ll capture the information in shorthand, etc. Typing notes verbatim — for example, transcribing a lecture or meeting recording — is more of a process than a thought exercise. The focus is on accuracy, not retention. (I can type fast enough to capture everything someone says in real time, but that doesn’t mean I remember any of it without reviewing what I’ve typed.)

Maybe that’s why Richard Branson carries a notebook everywhere he goes. (Literally: I’ve seen him with one at least 10 times.) Summarizing, putting concepts or ideas in your own words, deciding not just what to write, but how to write it — all those things engage different parts of your brain, and therefore improve your retention and recall.

Especially if you don’t stop there. According to a study published in Psychological Science, people who study before bed, then sleep, and then do a quick review the next morning can not only spend less time studying, they also increase their long-term retention by 50 percent.

Try it. At night, take a quick look at notes you’ve written during the day. Take a few moments to remember not only what, but why: why you’ll use what you jotted down. When you’ll use it. Why it will make a difference in your professional or personal life. Then do a quick review the next morning. 

Unless you’re a compulsive note-taker, both exercises will take only a minute or two.

After all, if it was important enough to write down, it’s important enough to remember — and more to the point, to do something with.

Because knowledge is useful only if you do something to make it useful.

www.inc.com

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 January 22, 2026

1. Russia’s Militarization of the Arctic

Business Insider


2. Not Political ….Interesting History of the Region

Geiger Capital


3. 2026 Year to Date Returns..Big Rotation Out of Tech

Charlie Bilello


4. 2026 Dow Transports +4.5% Dow Jones +2.20% vs. Mag 7 -3.5%

Ycharts


5. The Small Cap Outperformance from Previous Letters Showing Up in Higher Price to Book

Zach Goldberg Jefferies


6. Small Cap Stocks Still Seeing Outflows in Last 12 Months

Small cap ETF flows. “If you look at small cap ETFs, all of them together, over the last year there are still outflows”.

Daily Chartbook


7. Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Odds Polymarket

Cresset


8. Home and Car Insurance Rates vs. CPI

Dave Lutz at Jones Trading


9. The Implosion of American Union Construction Workers

The New York Times


10. The Spreadsheet Trap

Why obsessing over retirement math might be keeping you from the life you say you want

Jordan Grumet

Spreadsheet jockeys, listen up.

There’s a reason you exist. A reason you keep tweaking assumptions, adjusting cells, rerunning Monte Carlo simulations, and debating withdrawal rates deep into the night. And in my opinion, that reason might not be entirely healthy.

I say this as someone firmly inside the personal finance community. I create content here. I spend a lot of time talking about technicalities. Safe withdrawal rates. Inflation assumptions. Asset allocation. How many years you’ll be retired. Whether 70/30 is reckless or 60/40 is outdated. On and on and on.

So this isn’t an attack from the outside. It’s an observation from within.

Because alongside the creators (myself included), there’s a huge group of people quietly hunched over spreadsheets, trying to get the numbers exactly right. Debating who’s correct. Who’s being irresponsible. Who’s being conservative enough. As if precision itself is the prize.

At some point, I think we need to stop.

Not stop caring about money. Not stop understanding the math. But stop believing that more calculation will save us from what we’re actually avoiding.

Because I think this obsession fulfills a need. A psychological need. And that need doesn’t always serve us.

Here are three reasons people become spreadsheet jockeys—and why I don’t think any of them ultimately help.

1. Spreadsheets protect us from the leap of faith

At the core of all this number-crunching is a simple, uncomfortable truth: retirement is a leap of faith.

At some point, no matter how sophisticated your model is, you have to step into an unknowable future. You can’t spreadsheet your way around that. You can only delay facing it.

Markets will do things no model predicts. Black swan events will arrive uninvited. Your health, relationships, interests, and identity will change in ways no spreadsheet cell can capture. The future is not just uncertain—it’s fundamentally unknowable.

And that’s terrifying.

So we respond the way humans often do: by trying to control what can be controlled. We tighten assumptions. Lower withdrawal rates. Stress-test scenarios. Run worst-case projections until we feel safe again.

But here’s the uncomfortable part: safety is an illusion.

No amount of modeling removes the leap. It only postpones it. Eventually, you still have to choose to act without complete certainty. That’s not a failure of planning. It’s the nature of life.

The spreadsheet isn’t wrong. It’s just incapable of giving you what you’re actually asking for: a guarantee.

2. Numbers give us permission to chicken out

This is the one I see most often, and it’s the hardest to admit.

There are people with more than enough money to retire—by any reasonable standard—who stay in jobs they actively dislike. Not because they need the income, but because the spreadsheet says “maybe not yet.”

And if it doesn’t say that at first, they can make it say that.

All it takes is a slightly lower return assumption. A longer lifespan. A higher inflation estimate. A more conservative withdrawal rate. Eventually, the spreadsheet delivers the verdict they’re hoping for: You can’t retire.

Anxiety relieved.

Back to work they go. Miserable, but comfortable. Unfulfilled, but certain.

Retirement sounds great in theory. Leaving an identity behind? Much scarier. Letting go of a role where you know who you are, what you’re good at, and how you’re valued? That’s a real loss. And spreadsheets provide a socially acceptable excuse to avoid grieving it.

People say they want freedom. What they often want is freedom without risk, identity loss, or discomfort. And that version doesn’t exist.

So instead, they optimize numbers until inaction feels responsible.

3. Numbers are easier than meaning

Here’s the deepest reason spreadsheets are so seductive: they let us redefine winning.

If winning is having the right net worth, the lowest withdrawal rate, or the most conservative plan, then the game becomes measurable. Definable. Clean.

And crucially, it keeps us out of a much harder arena.

Because the real questions—the ones money is supposed to support—are messy and undefinable. What do you want your days to look like? Who do you want to spend them with? What feels meaningful now that achievement and accumulation aren’t the point?

Those questions don’t have formulas.

So instead, we convince ourselves that getting the numbers right is the purpose. That financial optimization is the end goal, not the tool. We stay outside the arena, pencil in hand, erasing and recalculating, while life happens elsewhere.

Spreadsheets allow us to avoid vulnerability. Avoid experimentation. Avoid failure. Avoid meeting people doing hard things. Avoid discovering that the life we thought we wanted might not actually satisfy us.

They give us something to polish instead of something to live.

Putting the calculator down

Let me be clear: understanding your finances is healthy. Running the numbers is responsible. You should know where you stand. You should plan. You should model scenarios.

But perfection is not the goal. Adequacy is.

At some point, the marginal benefit of another spreadsheet iteration drops to zero. Beyond that point, you’re no longer planning—you’re hiding.

Money is a means, not a moral achievement. Wealth is not proof that you lived well. It’s only useful if it creates space for you to actually show up to your life.

So yes, spend some evenings with your spreadsheets. Learn the math. Build confidence. But then, this is the important part, put the calculator away.

Go live.

Believe it or not, becoming a spreadsheet jockey can be an excuse. An excuse to delay the very things money is supposed to enable: freedom, connection, curiosity, and meaning.

The numbers don’t need to be perfect.

Your life doesn’t either. 

https://jordangrumet.substack.com/p/the-spreadsheet-trap

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 January 21, 2026

1. Wall Street Cross-Asset Sell Off

Bloomberg


2. 2025 Returns Driven by Earnings Growth

A Wealth of Common Sense


3. Mag 7 $450-$500 B in Cash

Perplexity


4. Small Cap Negative Earnings Companies Still Beating Positive Earnings Firms

Torsten Slok


5. Stocks as a Percentage of Household Assets

MarketWatch


6. CPI Electricity Prices Since 2020-Wolf Street

Wolf Street


7. World’s Biggest Aid Donors….China Not on List

Semafor


8. Ukraine Close to Their Own Long-Range Missiles

Inside Ukraine’s Quest to Build a Missile to Strike Deep in Russian Territory-WSJ By Matthew Luxmoore

WSJ


9. Gen X and Millennials Will Inherit Trillions in Real Estate Over the Next Decade

WSJ How luxury homeowners are preparing their children for the great wealth transfer By Katherine ClarkeFollow

WSJ


10. Americans View Congress Having the Lowest Morality of Any Profession

Sherwood Media

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 January 20, 2026

1. Small Cap Outperformance 6 Months…IWM (small) +21% vs. S&P 500 +11.5%

YCharts


2. XLE Energy Sector ETF Breakout

StockCharts


3. OIH Oil Service Approaching 3-Year Breakout

StockCharts


4. 2026 Energy ETF +6.5% vs. Software ETF IGV -7%

YCharts


5. LIT Lithium ETF Breaks Out Above 2022 Levels

StockCharts


6. 2026 YTD INTEL  INTC +31% vs. S&P +1.5%

YCharts


7. Netflix -34% From Highs..Hitting Support

StockCharts


8. Estimated Global Earnings Growth-Capital Group

Capital Group


9. Women vs. Men College Enrollment-Prof G Media

Prof G Media


10. What Are You Designed to Do?

Why purpose is about pattern, not passion. Jeff DeGraff Ph.D.

Key points

  • Purpose comes from design, not desire—where your gifts, skills, and context align.
  • Your job isn’t your identity; it only expresses your deeper pattern.
  • Stress reveals your design. How you act under pressure shows your true strengths.
  • Design evolves—your gifts grow through practice, reflection, and service.

4 Ways to Discover What You’re Designed to Do

  1. Study your defaults under pressure.
  2. Look beyond your job title.
  3. Experiment, don’t declare.
  4. Refine through service.

When stress rises, notice what you instinctively do. That pattern—your natural mode of problem-solving or connecting—is a clue to your design.

As Viktor Frankl (1959) observed, purpose is not found in what we get from life but in what life expects from us. Your profession may be a vehicle, but your design is the engine.

Treat your design as a prototype. Try new contexts, collaborators, and challenges. Growth, as Dweck (2006) reminds us, is iterative.

The surest test of a gift is its value to others. When your work creates coherence, insight, or uplift in others, you’ve likely found alignment between your design and your purpose.

To ask What am I designed to do? is not to surrender freedom—it is to locate it. It means working with the grain of your nature rather than against it, shaping your life as a craftsman shapes wood: respecting the knots, the curves, the tensile strength that make it beautiful.

The poet Rainer Maria Rilke (1934) once wrote, “Go into yourself and see how deep the place is from which your life flows.” That place—the confluence of gift, growth, and grace—is where design becomes destiny. 

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/innovation-you/202601/what-are-you-designed-to-do

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 January 16, 2026

1. Trading Desks Build Out Predictions Market

Trading on prediction markets surged since the start of the NFL season last fall

Financial Times


2. Small Cap Stocks on Best 10 Day Start Since 1987

Zach Goldberg Jefferies …The Russell 2000 is up roughly 8.3% so far in January. This puts it on track for its best 10-day start to any year since 1987, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The index has gained 2.4% in this week alone and has outpaced the S&P 500 over the past three months.


3. Broadening of Market Leadership

Reuters


4. Mag 7 Lagging

Abnormal Returns


5. Large Money Center Banks

Bespoke Investment Group While large brokerage/investment banking-centric firms like Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are seeing modest reactions to earnings, the same can’t be said for the largest money center banks, which reported this week. Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) all traded down at least 3% on their reaction days this week. For most, it was their worst earnings reaction day performance in over a year, and for BAC, it was the worst since October 2020!

Bespoke


6. Bond Market Calmest Ever

Bond market calm. “The bond market has never been so quiet … the 30-day trading range for the benchmark 10-year US Treasury, which is now the tightest it’s been since the 1970s. Meanwhile, the trading range for the 30-year has reached a record low.” 

Bloomberg


7. CEO’s Keep Spending on AI

Semafor


8. Half of GLP-1 users ditch their injections — and some are turning to other weight-loss methods instead

New research has found that 50% of patients regain the weight they lost if they stop taking Wegovy and Zepbound By 

Jaimy Lee

Points-Marketwatch

About This Summary

  • Approximately half of individuals discontinuing GLP-1 medications regain all lost weight within two years, often experiencing the return of associated medical problems.
  • A study of 77,310 adults in Denmark revealed that 52% of Wegovy users stopped treatment within a year due to cost or gastrointestinal side effects.
  • New oral GLP-1 options are emerging as potential maintenance treatments.

Millions of Americans have tried GLP-1s, but some people find that the weight-loss drugs have too many side effects, are expensive or just don’t work for them.

Patients also have to deal with changes to their health insurance at the start of a new year, and more employers have withdrawn coverage of the pricey medications. About half of the people who stop taking GLP-1s, like Eli Lilly’s 

 Wegovy, discover that they gain back all the weight they lost within two years.

“The only way that they work is if you keep taking them,” said Scott Isaacs, an endocrinologist at the Grady Health System in Atlanta. “And when people stop taking them, they have a lot of weight regain, and the medical problems that went away tend to come back.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/half-of-glp-1-users-ditch-their-injections-and-some-are-turning-to-other-weight-loss-methods-instead-8effac61?mod=home_lead


9. Do these 5 stretches every day to keep your body young

Patrick Franco, Contributor

Modern life is optimized for comfort, especially while sitting, but not for longevity. We relax on soft couches, work in rigid desk chairs, and spend hours driving or scrolling on our phones. Over time, these habits pull the head forward, round the spine and tighten the hips.

Those patterns quietly erode posture, mobility and the ability to rest with ease, which are all important for aging well. But I always tell my clients that a short, intentional daily stretching routine can help counteract the physical strain of modern life. 

Just a few minutes a day can improve posture, calm the nervous system and keep the body resilient for years to come. Here are five stretches I do every day to help with just that.

1. Seated spinal twist

Why it’s important: Spinal rotation helps maintain mobility, improves posture, decompresses the spine and reduces stiffness caused by prolonged sitting.

How to do it: Sit cross-legged on the floor or upright in a chair. Inhale to lift the arms, then exhale as you twist to the right, rotating from the belly through the ribs, chest, shoulders, head and neck. Hold for five slow breaths, then repeat on the other side.

2. Lunge

Why it’s important: Sitting with bent hips, whether at a desk or in a car, shortens the hip flexors and pulls the torso forward. Lunges lengthen these muscles, supporting better posture and helping prevent low back pain.

How to do it: Step one foot forward and lower the back knee. Reach the arms overhead, gently firm the glutes and engage the abdomen to protect the lower back. Hook the thumbs if comfortable to lengthen the torso and lift the chest. Hold for five to eight breaths, then switch sides.

3. Supported fish pose

Why it’s important: This pose counteracts “tech neck” and upper-back rounding by opening the chest, throat and thoracic spine.

How to do it: Lie back over a rolled blanket, foam roller or yoga block placed beneath the shoulder blades. Use a blanket if you need additional support for your head. Keep the knees bent so the focus stays on the upper back. Let the arms fall open with palms facing up and allow gravity to do the work. Stay for one to two minutes.

4. Bridge pose

Why it’s important: Bridge pose strengthens the back body — glutes, hamstrings and spinal muscles — while opening the front of the hips, supporting both posture and spinal health.

How to do it: Lie on your back with knees bent and feet hip-width apart. Press into the heels to lift the hips. Keep the chest broad by tucking the arms underneath and pressing them down. Hold for five breaths, then lower. Repeat three times.

5. Legs up the wall

Why it’s important: This simple and gentle inversion helps reset the nervous system, improves circulation and relieves swelling in the legs after long periods of sitting, standing or travel.

How to do it: Sit sideways next to a wall and swing the legs up as you lie back. Open the arms with palms facing up. If a wall isn’t available, rest the legs over a couch or chair. Close the eyes, slow the breath and stay for at least five to seven minutes.

You don’t need long workouts to boost longevity. These five stretches work together to undo some of the physical strain of modern life. They will help you you stand taller, move more freely and rest more deeply.

Patrick Francois a yoga instructor and co-director at YogaRenew Teacher Training Online. He leads in-person and online teacher trainings all over the world, and focuses primarily on yoga sequencing and the business of yoga, infusing his own enthusiasm and grounded approach to spirituality into every class he teaches.

https://www.cnbc.com/world/?region=world


10. Food Companies Employ Thousands of Chemists to Get You Addicted-Mark Hyman

Mark Hyman