Short interest still sits a multi-year highs while the S&P 500 sits only about 2% from new all-time highs.
Short interest represents future buying power, with squeeze situations increasing during rallies.
Source: Seth Golden @Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)
3. Highly Valued Stocks Based on Price to Sales
Sherwood News
4. Energy Sector ETF Still Below 2024 Highs
StockCharts
5. Post India Plane Crash….Boeing +16% Year to Date and Well Above 200-Day
StockCharts
6. Quora and Reddit Most-Cited Sources in Google AI Reviews
Via Business Insider: Reddit is the 2nd most-cited source in Google AI Overviews, but that might not mean much for its bottom line.
Analytics firm Semrush studied how AI is affecting Google Search traffic.
It found that Reddit is the second most-cited website by Google AI Overviews.
Quora was the most cited source.
Reddit’s relationship with Google is complicated.
The social media forum, which went public last yearand is under pressure like never before to attract advertisers and turn a profit, has recently enjoyed priority status on Google Search.
And now that Google has launched its AI Overview, a natural language synopsis of search results at the top of the page, it seems its preference for citing Reddit remains.
Analytics firm Semrush shared data this month on how AI-powered search is affecting traffic. It found that Reddit is the second most-cited website in Google AI Overviews, following Quora.
“Quora and Reddit users often ask and answer niche questions that aren’t addressed elsewhere. Making them rich information sources for highly specific AI prompts,” the study’s authors wrote. “Reddit may also perform well because Google has a partnership with Reddit and uses Reddit data to train its systems.”
Reddit and Google entered a partnership, worth a reported $60 million, in 2024 that allowed Google to train its AI models on Reddit’s content. Google said the deal would “facilitate more content-forward displays of Reddit information.”
7. Death Rates from Cancer Declining
Vox
8. Americans Traveling Abroad this Summer
Bloomberg
9. Share of National U.S. Sports TV Rights-Prof G
Professor Galloway
10. Morning and Nights
Via the FS Blog:The entire self-help industry in one sentence: Do what makes mornings exciting and nights peaceful.
Will this make me excited to wake up? Will this let me sleep in peace?
1. International Equities Outperforming for 3 Years
Ben Carlson Blog–We’re now looking at nearly three years of outperformance for international equities. It feels like this is a recent phenomenon but Jeffrey Kleintop has a chart that shows foreign stocks have been outperforming for longer than you think. This chart shows European stocks versus U.S. stocks going back to the bottom of the 2022 bear market:
A Wealth of Common Sense
2. Oil Traders More Cautious than Previous Attacks
4. Massive Capital Spending on Commodities by Tech Companies
Callum Thomas
5. Visa, Mastercard and AMEX Process $28 Trillion Each Year
FinChart
6. Intel 25-Year Returns
Barchart
7. Uranium ETF Clean Breakout
StockCharts
8. Mayo Clinic Hiring More Radiologist Post AI
Your A.I. Radiologist Will Not Be With You Soon
Experts predicted that artificial intelligence would steal radiology jobs. But at the Mayo Clinic, the technology has been more friend than foe.
Via the NYT: Dr. Theodora Potretzke, a radiologist at the Mayo Clinic, helped develop an A.I. tool that saves her 15 to 30 minutes each time she examines a kidney image.
Credit…Jenn Ackerman for The New York Times
Nine years ago, one of the world’s leading artificial intelligence scientists singled out an endangered occupational species.
“People should stop training radiologists now,” Geoffrey Hinton said, adding that it was “just completely obvious” that within five years A.I. would outperform humans in that field.
Today, radiologists — the physician specialists in medical imaging who look inside the body to diagnose and treat disease — are still in high demand. A recent study from the American College of Radiology projected a steadily growing work force through 2055.
Dr. Hinton, who was awarded a Nobel Prize in Physics last year for pioneering research in A.I., was broadly correct that the technology would have a significant impact — just not as a job killer.
That’s true for radiologists at the Mayo Clinic, one of the nation’s premier medical systems, whose main campus is in Rochester, Minn. There, in recent years, they have begun using A.I. to sharpen images, automate routine tasks, identify medical abnormalities and predict disease. A.I. can also serve as “a second set of eyes.”
“But would it replace radiologists? We didn’t think so,” said Dr. Matthew Callstrom, the Mayo Clinic’s chair of radiology, recalling the 2016 prediction. “We knew how hard it is and all that is involved.”
Computer scientists, labor experts and policymakers have long debated how A.I. will ultimately play out in the work force. Will it be a clever helper, enhancing human performance, or a robotic surrogate, displacing millions of workers?
The debate has intensified as the leading-edge technology behind chatbots appears to be improving faster than anticipated. Leaders at OpenAI, Anthropic and other companies in Silicon Valley now predict that A.I. will eclipse humans in most cognitive tasks within a few years. But many researchers foresee a more gradual transformation in line with seismic inventions of the past, like electricity or the internet.
The predicted extinction of radiologists provides a telling case study. So far, A.I. is proving to be a powerful medical tool to increase efficiency and magnify human abilities, rather than take anyone’s job.
1. I can’t think of a single example where keeping it simple has worked against us.
2. When people use the word common sense what they mean is uncommon sense. The standard human condition is ignorance and stupidity.
3. Q: Why is it that people can’t think clearly about investing or other decisions in their life?
A: They don’t think very well about sex or gambling either. The standard human condition is a lot of miscognition. You can improve your life by eliminating your miscognitions.
4. The economy sometimes booms and sometimes it doesn’t. You have to live through both episodes. Our attitude is we just keep swimming.
5. If you live long enough a lot of good things happen and a lot of bad things happen.
6. I would say that the chief advantage Berkshire has had in accumulating a good record is that we have avoided pompous, bureaucratic systems. We give power to very talented people and let them make very quick decisions.
7. In big bureaucracies they think the work is done when you get the work out of your inbox and into someone else’s. That is not getting it done. If everybody is in a big committee meeting all the time you are worn out at the end for the day and you haven’t done anything.
8. If we find things that are intelligent to do we do it. If we can’t find anything we let the cash build up. What the hell is wrong with that?
9. I’m ashamed of missing Google. We could have seen it if we looked at our own companies. Their [Google’s] advertising was working way better than other advertising. We weren’t paying enough attention.
10. I’m a huge admirer of Jeff Bezos. He is a perfectly amazing human leader.
11. Q: What do you think of those tech unicorns going public and not having any profitability?
A: There are a whole lot of things I don’t think about. And one of them is companies that are losing billions of dollars a year and going public. It is not my scene.
12. I think the shareholder meetings work best because they are spontaneous. If we were scripting things I don’t think people would like it.
13. I think my way of thinking will work for anyone. I’m trying to be very rational and disciplined. I’m always being visited by young men who say things like I’m practicing law and I don’t like it. I’d rather be a billionaire, how do I do it? I tell them a story about Mozart. One man came to Mozart and asked him how to write a symphony. Mozart replied, “You are too young to write a symphony.” The man said, “You were writing symphonies when you were 10 years of age, and I am 21.” Mozart said, “Yes, but I didn’t run around asking people how to do it.”
1. ORCL Capital Expenditures (AI) +225% Year over Year
Bespoke
2. EFA Developed International Stocks Hits All-Time Highs…Just Got Above 2008 Levels
Google
3. U.S. Tech Weight vs. International …U.S. Tech 33% of Stock Market vs. International 9.6%
BlackRock
4. Summer vs. Rest of Year Stock Market Returns
Dorsey Wright Nasdaq
5. Equity Flows to Europe
Paychart Book
6. Countries Export to Russia’s Neighbors to Get Around Bans
The Brookings Institution’s Robin Brooks has been chronicling how countries have been exporting to Russia’s neighbors to get around bans. Now he’s finding China shipping to other countries in what he says is “obviously” transshipments to avoid tariffs. “Thailand and Vietnam look bonkers,” says Brooks.
MarketWatch
7. American Upswing in Energy Production Across the Board
ZeroHedge
8. Disappearances Surging in Mexico
Semafor
9. What Does Your Mortgage Really Costs?
Eric Soda Spilled Coffee You can see the actual cost of the mortgage isn’t what you started it at. The interest really changes that. The true cost to own a home is much costlier than you think.
Spilled Coffee
10. World fertility rates in ‘unprecedented decline’, UN says
Via the BBC: In a survey of 14,000 people, one in five respondents said they haven’t had or expect they won’t have the number of children they want
Namrata Nangia and her husband have been toying with the idea of having another child since their five-year-old daughter was born.
But it always comes back to one question: ‘Can we afford it?’
She lives in Mumbai and works in pharmaceuticals, her husband works at a tyre company. But the costs of having one child are already overwhelming – school fees, the school bus, swimming lessons, even going to the GP is expensive.
It was different when Namrata was growing up. “We just used to go to school, nothing extracurricular, but now you have to send your kid to swimming, you have to send them to drawing, you have to see what else they can do.”
According to a new report by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the UN agency for reproductive rights, Namrata’s situation is becoming a global norm.
The agency has taken its strongest line yet on fertility decline, warning that hundreds of millions of people are not able to have the number of children they want, citing the prohibitive cost of parenthood and the lack of a suitable partner as some of the reasons.
UNFPA surveyed 14,000 people in 14 countries about their fertility intentions. One in five said they haven’t had or expect they won’t have their desired number of children.
The countries surveyed – South Korea, Thailand, Italy, Hungary, Germany, Sweden, Brazil, Mexico, US, India, Indonesia, Morocco, South Africa, and Nigeria – account for a third of the global population.
They are a mix of low, middle and high-income countries and those with low and high fertility. UNFPA surveyed young adults and those past their reproductive years.
“The world has begun an unprecedented decline in fertility rates,” says Dr Natalia Kanem, head of UNFPA.
“Most people surveyed want two or more children. Fertility rates are falling in large part because many feel unable to create the families they want. And that is the real crisis,” she says.
“Calling this a crisis, saying it’s real. That’s a shift I think,” says demographer Anna Rotkirch, who has researched fertility intentions in Europe and advises the Finnish government on population policy.
“Overall, there’s more undershooting than overshooting of fertility ideals,” she says. She has studied this at length in Europe and is interested to see it reflected at a global level.
She was also surprised by how many respondents over 50 (31%) said they had fewer children than they wanted.
The survey, which is a pilot for research in 50 countries later this year, is limited in its scope. When it comes to age groups within countries for example, the sample sizes are too small to make conclusions.
But some findings are clear.
In all countries, 39% of people said financial limitations prevented them from having a child.
The highest response was in Korea (58%), the lowest in Sweden (19%).
In total, only 12% of people cited infertility – or difficulty conceiving – as a reason for not having the number of children they wanted to. But that figure was higher in countries including Thailand (19%), the US (16%), South Africa (15%), Nigeria (14%) and India (13%).
“This is the first time that [the UN] have really gone all-out on low fertility issues,” says Prof Stuart Gietel-Basten, demographer at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
Until recently the agency focused heavily on women who have more children than they wanted and the “unmet need” for contraception.
Still, the UNFPA is urging caution in response to low fertility.
“Right now, what we’re seeing is a lot of rhetoric of catastrophe, either overpopulation or shrinking population, which leads to this kind of exaggerated response, and sometimes a manipulative response,” says Dr Kanem.
“In terms of trying to get women to have more children, or fewer.”
She points out that 40 years ago China, Korea, Japan, Thailand and Turkey were all worried their populations were too high. By 2015 they wanted to boost fertility.
“We want to try as far as possible to avoid those countries enacting any kind of panicky policies,” says Prof Gietel-Basten.
“We are seeing low fertility, population ageing, population stagnation used as an excuse to implement nationalist, anti-migrant policies and gender conservative policies,” he says.
UNFPA found an even bigger barrier to children than finances was a lack of time. For Namrata in Mumbai that rings true.
She spends at least three hours a day commuting to her office and back. When she gets home she is exhausted but wants to spend time with her daughter. Her family doesn’t get much sleep.
“After a working day, obviously you have that guilt, being a mom, that you’re not spending enough time with your kid,” she says.
1. American House of Reps Families Trade Like Hedge Funds During Liberation Day Volatility
DAY TRADERS– As markets tanked in the wake of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in early April, members of Congress and their families made hundreds of stock trades, shining a spotlight on a controversial practice that some lawmakers have pushed to ban. From April 2, when Trump launched sweeping tariffs to April 8, the day before he paused many of them, more than a dozen House lawmakers and their family members made more than 700 stock trades, according to a WSJ analysis. The trading took place during one of the wildest stretches for global financial markets of the past decade. The S&P 500 tanked more than 4.5% for two consecutive sessions shortly after Liberation Day and recorded the biggest fall since the March 2020 market crash. More than $6 trillion in market value vanished.
6. Bonds Market Value vs. Stocks Lowest Since 1960s
Barchart
7. Gold Chopping Sideways Since April
ZeroHedge
8. Public Companies Holding Bitcoin
Perplexity
9. 75% of Companies Have Already Raised Prices in Response to Tariffs, Fed Survey Finds
Via Barron’s: Early signs indicate that many businesses are quickly raising prices for shoppers to cover most of the higher costs from sweeping U.S. tariffs on imported goods.
Among businesses that are facing higher operational costs due to President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, roughly 75% are imparting at least some of the their cost increases on consumers, according to an analysis released Wednesday of the New York Fed’s Regional Business Survey of firms in the New York and Northern New Jersey region.
Almost a third of manufacturers and about 45% of service firms report they have fully passed along all their cost increases due to higher tariff rates, the survey said. Meanwhile, another 45% of manufacturers and a third of service firms said they shifted some—but not all—of the cost increases to consumers.
It’s worth noting, however, that the NY Fed conducted the survey between May 2 and May 9. That was before the Trump administration reduced the tariff rate on goods from China to 30% from 145%—and before the recent court rulings around tariffs at the end of May.
The latest survey results found that firms implemented these price increases fairly rapidly.
“Over half of both manufacturers and service firms said they raised prices within a month of experiencing tariff-related cost increases—many within a day or week,” NY researchers found.
Tariffs have a broad impact, with about 90% of manufacturers and 75% of service firms surveyed reporting that they utilize some form of imported goods.
Manufacturers reported that the average tariff rate they paid as of early May was about 35%. Service firms reported an estimated average tariff rate of 26%. That marks a significant increase for both types of businesses from the rates they reported six months ago.
“Firms’ costs of tariffed goods may not have increased by as much as the tariffs, in part, because importers may have switched towards suppliers in other countries or in the United States; foreign suppliers may also have lowered their prices to help offset the tariffs,” NY Fed researchers noted.
4. Stablecoin Now Major Holder of U.S. Short-Term Debt
Ritzholz
5. Stablecoins Risk Stack
Per TBAC’s report:
Stablecoins are digital assets designed to maintain a stable value by pegging their worth to a reserve asset, such as fiat currency (USD). The intended stability of stablecoins has made them a key enabler for payments and as a store of value in on-chain ecosystems.
The graphic below, from its report, shows that some stablecoins are incredibly secure, as they are backed by Treasuries, repo transactions, and money market funds. However, as you move down the list of types of stablecoin, others are supported by riskier assets, algorithms, and smart contracts.
VettaFi
6. Electricity Generated by Solar Uptrend…But Stocks No Rally
Wolf Street
7. Top 10 States by Defense Spending
ZeroHedge
8. Ranking Sovereign Wealth Funds
CRE Analyst
9. First Time More Babies Born to Moms 40-44 vs. Teens
Eric Finnigan
10. What’s the Safest Sunscreen for Your Body
Via Mark Hyman, Co-Founder & Chief Medical Officer of Function Health
Right now, plenty of people are rethinking their sunscreen—not because they don’t believe in sun protection, but because they’re uneasy about what’s in the bottle.
Some of the chemical ingredients commonly used to block UV rays—like oxybenzone—have been linked to hormone disruption or skin irritation. Others haven’t been studied as thoroughly as you might expect, especially given how often we use them.
If you’re looking for something safer for your body (and your family), we’ve got you covered. In this article, the Hyman Health team shares the sun protection products we actually keep in our own beach bags—go-to picks made with ingredients you can feel good about.
Why Some Sunscreens Raise Concerns
If you’ve ever flipped over a sunscreen bottle and wondered what those long ingredient names actually mean, you’re not alone. Some of the most common chemical filters have raised red flags for their potential effects on human health and the environment.
Here are a few you may want to avoid:
Oxybenzone and octinoxate: linked to hormone disruption and banned in some locations for harming coral reefs
Homosalate: under review for safety due to potential endocrine-disrupting effects
Octocrylene: can break down into benzophenone, a possible carcinogen
One thing to keep in mind: The biggest concern with these ingredients isn’t occasional use on a beach vacation or a quick swipe on your nose. It’s about cumulative exposure—using them regularly, over large areas of the body, often without realizing what’s in the product.
If you’re in a pinch, and the only sunscreen available contains one of these ingredients, it’s still better than getting burned. But when you have options, choosing a cleaner formula is a simple way to lower your overall exposure.
If you’re curious about the research behind these concerns—or want to know how antioxidants from food can strengthen your skin’s natural defenses—check out our full guide to sunscreen safety.
How to Choose a Safer Sunscreen
When it comes to sunscreen, mineral-based formulas are generally your best bet.
Unlike chemical sunscreens, which absorb UV rays and can include ingredients linked to hormone disruption, mineral sunscreens use physical blockers—usually zinc oxide—to sit on top of the skin and reflect UV light.
They start working immediately, are less likely to irritate sensitive skin, and don’t absorb into the bloodstream the way some chemical filters can.
Look for sunscreens that use non-nano zinc oxide, which refers to particle size. Non-nano particles are larger and less likely to be absorbed through the skin, making them a safer choice for both people and the environment.
If you’re trying to figure out whether your sunscreen makes the cut, check out the Environmental Working Group’s (EWG) Guide to Sunscreens. You can search by brand, see how your current product rates, and explore safer options that meet EWG’s strict criteria for ingredient safety and UV protection.
Here are three Hyman Health staff favorites:
Annmarie Gianni Sun Love Natural Sunscreen SPF 20 This all-natural, mineral-based sunscreen isn’t rated by EWG, but it’s a team favorite for everyday use. It uses non-nano zinc oxide for broad-spectrum protection and includes antioxidant-rich botanicals. Sunflower seed oil adds hydration and helps support the skin barrier—especially helpful if you’re applying daily. Learn more.
Badger Sport Mineral Sunscreen Cream SPF 40 A reliable, water-resistant mineral sunscreen that’s earned a top rating from the EWG. It features non-nano zinc oxide as the active ingredient and keeps the rest of the formula simple: just a few clean ingredients to nourish the skin while you’re out in the sun. Learn more.
Sunly Kids Mineral Sunscreen Face Stick SPF 30 This EWG Verified™ sunscreen stick is a convenient, mess-free option for kids. (They also have an adult version.) It uses non-nano zinc oxide for broad-spectrum protection and glides on easily without leaving a heavy residue. The formula is fragrance-free, gentle on sensitive skin, and made with moisturizing ingredients. Learn more.
What about Sunblock Sprays?
If you’ve checked the Environmental Working Group (EWG) sunscreen guide, you might’ve noticed that no spray sunblocks or sunscreens score better than a 3 on their 1–10 hazard scale (where 1 is the safest and 10 is the most concerning).
A 3 isn’t terrible—it often means the ingredients themselves are relatively safe. But even mineral-based sprays that use zinc oxide or titanium dioxide fall short for one big reason: inhalation risk.
When sprayed into the air, small particles can become airborne and enter the lungs, where they may cause harm—especially over time or in children. That concern is enough to drop the product’s overall safety score, even if what’s on your skin is relatively clean.
Sprays also raise another issue: uneven coverage. It’s easy to miss spots or apply too lightly, especially on windy days or when you’re in a hurry. What looks like a fine mist doesn’t always translate to full protection.
If you still prefer a spray, just know the tradeoffs. To minimize the risks and get better coverage, spray it into your hands first, then apply it like a lotion.
