1. Hard to Believe But…April 2025 Volatility was Only Eclipsed by 1987 Crash and GFC

History Books: Here’s one for the history books — the amount of volatility we saw in early April was eclipsed only by the 1987 crash and 2008/09 financial crisis.

Michael McDonough

2. Barrons Big Money Poll: Professional Investors the Most Bearish in 28 Years

America’s money managers are more bearish today than they have been in nearly 30 years. Barron’s latest Big Money poll of professional investors finds 32% of respondents bearish on the outlook for stocks over the next 12 months—the highest percentage since at least 1997. Just think about all the crises investors have weathered since then: the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the 2008-09 financial crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic. And yet the Big Money pros are more anxious now than during any of those painful points for the financial markets, the economy, and the country. The bulls’ ranks also stand at historic levels in our spring survey—historically low, that is. Just 26% of respondents call themselves bullish on the market’s prospects, the smallest percentage since 1997.

Barron’s

3. April Largest Monthly Positive Inflows by Retail Investors on Record

Retail investors (II) …retail investors tracked by JPMorgan “net bought $40B in April, surpassing last month and setting a new record for the largest monthly inflow.”

The Market Ear

4. S&P 500 Trades Right Back to 200-Day Moving Average

StockCharts

5. Nasdaq QQQ Trades Right Back to 200-Day

StockCharts

6. Post-Liberation Day Returns

It’s been exactly a month since “Liberation Day” on April 2nd when President Trump announced massive reciprocal tariffs on the rest of the world. At its intraday low on April 8th, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was down 14.7% from its closing level on April 2nd. Since that low, SPY has now rallied 17.4%, and as of this morning, SPY has fully recovered all of its post-Liberation Day declines.

Below is a look at the performance of key index and sector ETFs since the close on Liberation Day (4/2). Technology (XLK) is now the best performing sector since 4/2 with a gain of 2.9%, followed by the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Semis (SMH), and Industrials (XLI). On the downside, the Energy sector (XLE) has been by far the biggest laggard with a decline of 12.7%.

Besporke

7. Eli Lilly Biggest One-Day Sell Off in 17 Years…P/E has Dropped from 80x to 40x

Bloomberg

8. Office Delinquencies Turn Back Up

Via WOLF STREET. Delinquencies of office mortgages that were securitized into commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) have been in the red-hot zone since mid-2023 and in December 2024 hit 11.0%, surpassing even the debt-meltdown during the Financial Crisis. Then, during the first three months of 2025, the delinquency rate backed off some, but in April re-spiked by 52 basis points to 10.3%, according to data by Trepp today, which tracks and analyzes CMBS.

The 52-basis-point increase of the delinquency rate represented a U-Turn from the feeble signs of hope earlier this year and put the delinquency rate right back into the peak of the Financial Crisis meltdown.

A flight to quality has divided the office market into two: Amid much reduced demand for office space, vacancies in the latest and greatest buildings allow companies to move from older office towers into new fancy offices, while downsizing space at the same time . But landlords of older properties have trouble finding new tenants to replace them, and their vacancy rates have soared. It’s those older office towers that are on the problem list, not the latest and greatest towers.

Wolf Street

9. The Tesla of the Toy Market—Pop Mart is Worth More than Rival Toy Makers Combined

Although the company’s been on a rocky ride since going public in late 2020 — with revenue not always measuring up to its previously blistering pace — shares have risen ~460% in the past year and hit a record high in the last week, adding $1.6 billion to Pop Mart’s founder’s wealth in a single day. The surge has also seen the company’s market cap roar to $33.6 billion, making it more valuable than Hello Kitty giant Sanrio, Transformers behemoth Hasbro, and Barbie-maker Mattel… combined.

Could the ongoing US-China trade war put a dent in Labubu-mania, or will Pop Mart still look positively dolled-up further into the future?

10. Warren Buffett: ‘The long-term trend is up’

Via TKer — Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, remains bullish on the long run. At the same time, he acknowledges that people will continue to be distracted by short-term market moves, which will continue to be unpredictable.

“The long-term trend is up,“ Buffett said at Berkshire’s annual shareholders meeting on Saturday.

“Nobody knows what the market is going to do tomorrow, next week, next month,” he added. “But they spend all their time talking about it, because it’s easy to talk about. But it has no value.”

Buffett was responding to a shareholder’s question about Berkshire’s massive cash pile, which grew to $347 billion in Q1. He reiterated what he said in his annual letter, which was that his preference is not to be sitting in so much cash. But he made clear that holding cash was smarter than making brash acquisitions.

“We would rather have conditions that have developed where we would have like $50 billion or something like that,” he said. “But that just isn’t the way the business works.”

Buffett explained if he acquired businesses or accumulated stock solely for the sake of getting that cash pile down to $50 billion, “That would be the dumbest thing in the world to invest in that manner.”

For now, Buffett believes it’s better to keep dry powder for when Berkshire could be “bombarded with offerings” that offer better risk-reward opportunities than what he’s seeing today.

“We have made a lot of money by not wanting to be fully invested at all times,” he said.

Of course, this strategy is not for everyone. Buffett and Berkshire are in the business of acquiring companies and picking stocks. In fact, Buffett has historically recommended most people to invest in passively managed S&P 500 index funds.

“We don’t think it’s improper for people who are passive investors to just make a few simple investments and sit for their life in them,” he said. “But we’ve made the decision to be in this business. So we think we can do a little better than that.“

Buffett downplays recent market volatility, warns of a ‘hair curler’ event 📉

A shareholder asked Buffett specifically about the market swings we experienced in the past month.

“What has happened in the last 30, 45 days, 100 days … it’s really nothing,” he said. “This is not a huge move. … This has not been a dramatic bear market or anything of the sort.“

Indeed, you can get smoked in the short-term. It’s one of the truths about the stock market.

“If it makes a difference to you whether your stocks are down 15% or not, you need to get a somewhat different investment philosophy,” Buffett said. “The world is not going to adapt to you. You’re going to have to adapt to the world.”

Buffett cautioned that just because he doesn’t think the recent market swings were notable doesn’t mean we won’t get a more violent downturn some time in the future. He said “certainly in the next 20 years” we will get a “hair curler” event.

“The world makes big, big, big mistakes, and surprises happen in dramatic ways,” he said. “The more sophisticated the system gets, the more the surprises can be out of right field. That’s part of the stock market. That’s what makes it a good place to focus your efforts if you have the proper temperament for it — and a terrible place to get involved if you get frightened by markets that decline and get excited when stock markets go up. I don’t mean to sound particularly critical. People have emotions. But you have to check them at the door when you invest.”

Zooming out 🔭

Buffett covered a lot during his five-hour long Q&A. His comments on protectionist trade policy and pessimism toward the U.S. economy were particularly interesting. A lot of media outlets are covering it. I may write about it later.

But the big news out of this year’s event was Buffett’s announcement that he intends to step down as CEO as he makes way for vice chairman Greg Abel to succeed him.

“I think the time has arrived where Greg should become the chief executive officer of the company at year-end,” Buffett said.

Buffett’s time at the helm of Berkshire may be coming to an end. But his timeless investing lessons will surely endure.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 02, 2025

May 2, 2025

Matt Topley

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Sell in May??

Carson

2. S&P Green 8 Days in a Row

Barchart

3. Amazon AWS Slower Growth but Huge Margins

Bespoke

4. Interesting…Who is Buying Gold Protection? Asia

Commodities: Retail purchases of gold in Asia surged over the past 12 months.

Daily Shot Brief

5. Stocks/Gold and the U.S. Dollar

Ben Carlson

6. Energy ETF Broke 2 levels…Exxon and Chevron 40% of ETF

StockCharts

7. Starbucks Gives Back All NEW CEO Rally…. -30% from Highs

StockCharts

8. Pfizer Down on 5-Year Basis

Google Finance

9. Russians Building a Military Base 100 Miles from Finland

Via WSJ: HELSINKI—With President Trump and many other world leaders preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, some Europeans are growing alarmed about what the Russian army has been doing much more quietly along other stretches of its border with Europe.

Some 100 miles east of its border with Finland, in the Russian city of Petrozavodsk, military engineers are expanding army bases where the Kremlin plans to create a new army headquarters to oversee tens of thousands of troops over the next several years.

As Russia prepares to increase its military presence along NATO’s eastern flank, Putin has ordered the military to expand its ranks to as many as 1.5 million troops, up from around one million before the Ukraine invasion.

Russia has increased military spending to more than 6% of GDP this year, from 3.6% before the war. By comparison, the U.S. spent 3.4% of its GDP on its military last year, and EU countries, on average, spent 2.1%. In 2021, before the invasion, Russia made about 40 of its main battle tanks, the T-90M, according to Western intelligence estimates. Now it is producing nearly 300 a year. A senior Finnish military official said almost none are being sent to the front line in Ukraine, but are staying on Russian soil for later use.

10. Improve Your Diet

From Mark Harmon: Simple Prep Moves That Save You All Week

You don’t need to be a meal prep pro—you just need a few simple go-to methods that make your whole foods ready to eat. These are some of the easiest, most versatile ways to get set up for the week ahead.

1. Roast Lots of Vegetables

Roasting brings out the natural sweetness in vegetables and makes them more satisfying and snackable. You can batch-cook a tray or two early in the week and use them in salads, bowls, or as a ready-to-eat snack or side.

Best vegetables for roasting: cauliflower, broccoli, carrots, Brussels sprouts, sweet potatoes, zucchini

Preheat the oven to 425°F.
Chop your veggies into similar-sized pieces so they roast evenly.
Toss with about 1 teaspoon of avocado oil per cup of vegetables.
Add dried herbs and spices—rosemary, smoked paprika, cumin, and garlic powder all work well.
Spread veggies in a single layer on a baking sheet (don’t crowd them).
Roast, stirring every 10 minutes, until fork-tender—usually 20 to 40 minutes, depending on the vegetable.
Sprinkle with sea salt and pepper to taste once they’re done.

2. Make Shredded Meat

Shredded protein is one of the easiest ways to prep for the week. Toss it into salads, wraps, bowls, soups, or have it ala carte. The key is matching the method to the type of meat.

Stovetop method (best for chicken breast, chicken thighs, turkey breast)

Add 1–2 pounds of boneless, skinless poultry to a saucepan or skillet.
Pour in just enough water or broth to cover.
Add a pinch of salt or flavor boosters like garlic cloves or a bay leaf.
Bring to a boil, then reduce heat and simmer gently for 15–20 minutes, until fully cooked.

Let cool slightly, then shred with two forks or your hands.

Slow cooker method (best for pork shoulder, beef chuck roast, or boneless short ribs)

Add 2–3 pounds of meat to the slow cooker.
Pour in ½ to 1 cup of broth or water. Add chopped onion, garlic, or dried herbs if you’d like.
Cook on low for 6–8 hours or on high for 3–4 hours, until fork-tender.
Shred and store in an airtight container for up to 4 days.

3. Prepare Healthy Dips and Dressings

Dips and dressings can make vegetables, proteins, and salads more appealing—but most store-bought versions are packed with added sugar, preservatives, and low-quality oils.

Instead, try making your own. It only takes a few minutes, and you can control exactly what goes in.

Here are four of my favorite healthy dips and dressings.

Want to Take It Further?

This kitchen clean-out is just one part of the 10-Day Detox—our simple, step-by-step reset designed to help you eat better, feel better, and take back control of your health. So if you’re ready to seriously upgrade your nutrition and start feeling better in just 10 days, click here to learn more.

References:

1. Roe LS, Rolls BJ. Which strategies to manage problem foods were related to weight loss in a randomized clinical trial? Appetite. 2020 Aug 1;151:104687. 2. Schulte EM, Avena NM, Gearhardt AN. Which foods may be addictive? The roles of processing, fat content, and glycemic load. PLoS One. 2015 Feb 18;10(2):e0117959.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 April 30, 2025

April 30, 2025

Matt Topley

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Zweig Market Breadth Thrust

The Zweig Market Breadth Thrust has triggered for the 17th time in history. The previous 16 times have resulted in an S&P 500 average gain of 16.35% after 6 months and 23.78% after 12 months. The S&P 500 has NEVER been red after 6 months and 12 months following the trigger.

Real Investment Advice

Perplexity

2. Tesla Rallied Right Back to 200-Day Moving Average…

StockCharts

3. Kyle Bass on International Stocks

Kyle Bass

4. Bitcoin ETFs $2.9B Inflows

Bitcoin flows. “Last week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of 31,323 $BTC, equivalent to approximately $2.9 billion. In BTC terms, it was the fifth-largest weekly inflow on record. In dollar terms, it ranks even higher – the third-largest inflow.”

Glassnode

5. Container Bookings from China Falling

Vizion

6. Gold Short-Term Overbought

Daily Shot Brief

7. Total Weight of Top 10 Companies S&P 500…Rise Since 2017

The Irrelevant Investor

8. Plane Ticket Prices Flat for 15 Years

Sherwood

9. Top Colleges Are Too Costly Even for Parents Making $300,000

Many families earn too much to get meaningful aid but too little to cover tuition out of pocket.

Bloomberg

10. Win the Morning

Via The Daily Stoic: One of the most relatable moments in Meditations is Marcus Aurelius’s argument with himself at the beginning of Book 5. It’s a struggle he’s clearly faced many mornings—as have so many of us: He knows he must get out of bed, yet desperately wants to stay under the warm covers.

It’s relatable…but it’s also impressive. Marcus didn’t actually have to get out of bed. He didn’t really have to do anything. As emperor, he could do as he pleased. One of his predecessors, Tiberius, basically abandoned the throne for an exotic island. Marcus’s adopted great-grandfather Hadrian hardly spent any time in Rome at all. The emperor had all sorts of prerogatives, and here Marcus was insisting that he rise early and get to work.

Why? Because Marcus understood that winning the morning was essential to winning the day—and ultimately, life itself. Though he wouldn’t have known the phrase “the early bird gets the worm,” he grasped that a day well-begun is half done. By pushing himself to do something difficult, by committing to what he knew he was born to do and loved to do, Marcus set himself up for daily success (more on this in our How To Read Meditations guide, by the way).

This is a practice we must follow today and every day. We should rise early, without delay. We should nourish ourselves properly. We should maintain good habits. We should tackle our most important task first thing. By winning the morning, we reduce the power that the rest of the day—much of which lies beyond our control—holds over us.

Well-begun is half won. So get started.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 April 28, 2025

April 28, 2025

Matt Topley

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. S&P +1.5% 3 Days in a Row…History

Consecutive gains. From Tuesday-Thursday, the S&P 500 was up “at least 1.5% for three days in a row. This isn’t stuff you see in bear market rallies or short covering rallies. You see this before times of strong performance. Higher 10 out of 10 times a year later and up 21.6% on average.”

Ryan Detrick

2. Gold Articles All Over the Weekend Financial Press

All told, there is now an estimated $4 trillion worth of gold held by central banks, and $5 trillion by private investors. Calculated against $260 trillion for all financial assets, including stocks, bonds, cash, and alternatives, that works out to a global gold portfolio allocation of 3.5%, a record.

Barron’s

3. Major Indexes and Max Drawdowns

Liz Ann Sonders

4. Foreign Investors are at Max U.S. Equities with Little Currency Hedging

Bloomberg

5. Household Wealth -$6T YTD

MarketWatch

6. Despite Volatility…10-Year Treasury is Back to March Levels

Bespoke

7. Americans Still Spending

WSJ

8. Asian Countries Opinion of China

Semafor

9. The Sinking Birth Rate in U.S.

Eric Finnigan

10. 6 Under-the-Radar Mindsets You Need to Excel

How to problem-solve at a higher level.

Key points:

Seek unsolved problems to enhance pattern recognition and problem-solving skills.
Innovate by sourcing knowledge from unexpected fields and perspectives.
Embrace abstraction to apply concepts to diverse challenges.

Via Psychology Today: The mindsets that separate extraordinary from average aren’t just about productivity or career advancement. They’re the same patterns that help you navigate life’s complexities.

While most self-improvement advice focuses on discipline and routine, these six under-the-radar mindsets develop something more fundamental: your capacity to learn, adapt, and discover what others miss. They’re about seeking novel challenges, embracing unexpected discoveries, and finding connections where others don’t look. Whether you’re wanting to excel at work, at self-management, at home, or at sports, these mindsets can help you be more innovative, resilient, and a better problem-solver.

1. You Need To Be Attracted To Problems You Haven’t Seen (Or Solved) Before

School and corporate life train us to feel most comfortable applying familiar formulas to familiar problems, again and again.

But to excel, you need to seek out problems you haven’t already seen and solved. That’s what grows your problem-solving skills and intuition.

Why it’s important for excellence: Knowledge comes from recognizing patterns — and you won’t encounter enough different patterns without exposing yourself to new kinds of problems.

2. You Need To Be Open To Learning Something More Important Than What You Set Out To Learn

The history of science and innovation is full of examples of unintentional discoveries that turned out to be more important than solving the intended target problem. For instance, French polymath Henri Poincaré expected his approximations would solve the problem he was working on. When they unexpectedly didn’t, it led him to develop chaos theory!

The problems we solve or discoveries we make along the way often end up being the most valuable part of the experience. This applies psychologically too.

Why it’s important for excellence: If you’re not open to this, you’ll miss your biggest discoveries.

3. You Have To Be Interested In Abstraction

Abstraction allows us to carry ideas like tools and apply them to new problems. For example, I was recently introduced to two paradoxes. First, the “Barber Paradox”: If there’s only one barber on an island who shaves everyone who doesn’t shave themselves, the question is: who shaves the barber?

Next, consider the “Baldness Problem”: If a person has no hair, they’re bald. With one hair, still bald. A few hairs? Bald. But when do they stop being bald? How many hairs is too many?

Within a week of learning about these ideas, I encountered situations these paradoxes helped me understand. They had seemed like curious puzzles at the time, but they turned out to be unexpectedly useful.

For example, the Baldness Problem might help you understand tensions arising from different people’s definitions of “clean.” The Barber Paradox can help you spot self-referential patterns of circular logic.

Why it’s important for excellence: Without abstraction, it’s hard to carry knowledge with you. We need this to spot patterns we wouldn’t otherwise recognize. Another example here.

4. You Have To Be Interested In A Variety Of Ways Of Solving A Problem

Imagine a non-curious person learning math. They learn one method for solving a specific type of problem—say quadratic equations—and once they’ve got it, they’re not interested in learning any others. Why would they do that? It seems inefficient, like flogging a dead horse.

Now, contrast that with a curious person who, after learning one method, sees a video showing nine other ways to solve the same problem and is excited to try them all.

Why it’s important for excellence: We need to build mental flexibility and the intuition that problems can generally be solved in many different ways. For example, if storming a castle’s main gate isn’t working, we step back and try to view the problem from a completely different angle. Shifting how we approach familiar problems helps us apply the same flexibility to more complex, unfamiliar ones.

Knowing multiple ways to solve a problem also builds resilience. If your usual method isn’t available, you’ll have other strategies. Again this applies psychologically. For example, if you’re injured and can’t exercise to relieve your stress, you need other methods.

5. You Have To Be Interested In Exploring The Long Tail Of Your Strengths

We often focus on obvious strengths that influence success, like a visionary entrepreneur or a runner with a high VO2 max.

However, at elite levels, everyone possesses these top strengths. What sets people apart is the long tail of their strengths, like fast recovery from hard workouts or high-carb fueling tolerance.

Why it’s important for excellence: Without understanding your full range of strengths, you won’t fully appreciate how to use them. It’s crucial to recognize them, see how they might be applied in unconventional ways, and be willing to experiment—even if it means stepping outside conventional methods.

6. You Have To Be Interested In Finding Knowledge In Unexpected Places

Imagine a running coach who only looks for new methods from other running coaches or running journals. Now, picture a coach who also seeks ideas from cycling. Or someone who explores models of recovery, mental toughness, and innovation from fields completely outside of sports. Then, think of a coach who disagrees with another on almost everything but decides to adopt an interesting method they come up with.

Why it’s important for excellence: We become more innovative when we’re open to learning from a wide variety of sources, not just from the usual places or our buddies.

Your Mindset Determines Your Approach to Challenges

Mindset shifts change your approach in ways that routine and discipline alone cannot. They push you beyond applying familiar formulas to familiar problems. While most people scramble for quick wins, your mindset can help you see deeper connections between knowledge sources that others miss. Excellence isn’t just working harder—it comes from sharpening your reasoning skills and problem-solving intuition.

If you’re interested in improving your reasoning further, try this guide.