TOPLEY’S TOP 10 December 11, 2025

1. Aggregate Net Asset Value of Bitcoin-Treasury Companies

Marketwatch The chart below shows that the aggregate market net asset value of bitcoin-treasury companies — or the aggregate market capitalization of such companies divided by the value of bitcoin they held — has fallen sharply from earlier this year.

MarketWatch


2. ORCL Capex Chart

ZeroHedge


3. Apple Capex vs. Big Tech Leaders-Barrons

Barron’s


4. MAG 7 Vs. NFLX Chart….NFLX -23% in 6 Months

StockCharts


5. You Tube vs. NFLX

 A Wealth of Common Sense


6. ARKK Big Year…5 Years S&P +15.20% CAGR vs. ARKK -6.2%

Google Finance


7. Projections by the 19 FOMC members for the midpoint of the federal funds rate

Wolf Street Amid 3 dissenters in both directions, FOMC cuts by 25 basis points. “Dot Plot” sees 1 cut next year, 3 members see 1 hike. Reserve management purchases of T-bills begins.

The FOMC voted today to cut the Fed’s five policy rates by 25 basis points, as widely expected, the third cut in 2025, after cutting by 100 basis points in 2024.

There were 3 dissenters of the 12 voting FOMC members, the most dissenters since September 2019, under Powell. Two dissenters (Goolsbee and Schmid) wanted no cut. Miran wanted a 50-basis-point cut. Dissents are a breath of fresh air.

Projections by the 19 FOMC members for the midpoint of the federal funds rate by the end of 2026 (bold = median):

  • 1 sees 6 cuts
  • 1 sees 4 cuts
  • 2 sees 3 cuts
  • 4 see 2 cuts
  • 4 see 1 cut
  • 4 see no change
  • 3 see 1 rate hike.

Wolf Street https://wolfstreet.com/2025/12/10/this-fed-meeting-must-have-been-an-epic-circus/


8. Global Long-Term Bond Yields Hit 16-Year Highs

Yahoo Finance


9. Getting Less Than 7 Hours Of Sleep Linked To Shorter Life Expectancy Across America

Reviewed by John Anderer

Study Finds


10. The New College Version of “The Dog Ate My Homework”

Psychology Today Personal Perspective: Students are using mental health excuses for academic shortcomings. Deborah J. Cohan Ph.D.

As a college professor for 30 years, I’m no stranger to the range of excuses that students provide for missed work or poor performances. But in the past year, a new phenomenon has emerged in relation to excuse-making.

First, students are relying on AI to craft emails to professors. In fact, one of my colleagues just shared with me that a student sent an email to him with the salutation, Dear Professor Last Name. I would have fantasies of writing back to that student, Dear Student First Name.

I’m left wondering if and how students are relying on faculty for good faith responses when they are querying with bad faith questions and excuses.

But the more pressing problem is when students use AI to craft these messages while also incorporating lengthy commentary about mental health, alluding to how, for example, their depression got in the way of their ability to do their work.

I get the importance of mental health. I’ve spent my career researching, writing, and teaching about mental health issues and have also worked as a counselor for years. I don’t take it lightly when students share difficult things. I’ve sat for hours with students in crisis, reeling from trauma, and struggling to heal.

These emails are not that.

Following the sentences about how they forgot about classwork, didn’t plan their time well, and generally forget their hybrid and online classes, students launch into the mental health issue and simultaneously ask if I might have it in my heart to change their grades. They tell me how much it would mean to them if I would just add a few more points or give them an extra assignment or extra credit days before the semester is ending. They add, “I know it never hurts to ask,” not understanding that it most certainly does. I feel like a film director, wanting to yell “Cut!” I experience these messages as desperately manipulative.

Students are active agents in the larger cultural discourse around mental health, and they have intuited that they can pull on the heartstrings of their teachers to get what they want. Moreover, this comes across as controlling because they also know that an educator will have a much harder time maintaining a penalty if there is a mental health issue, because what educator working with young people would be so mean? They’ve surmised that it’s insufficient to just say that they forgot or that they did not prioritize the classwork.

As I discuss in my book, The Complete U: Over 100 Lessons for Success in and out of the College Classroom, students don’t simply state that they are sad. They diagnose themselves as being depressed. They are not nervous about a test; they suffer from anxiety. And when they’re really nervous, they’re having a panic attack. Everything is at full throttle—except for any zest and curiosity about actual learning.

The trouble with these messages is how predictable and formulaic they are. Moreover, where are these students all semester long? The emails I receive from students are no longer about concepts they don’t thoroughly understand or about something they read or learned in another class that connects with what we’re talking about in our class, or a movie they saw that reminds them of a theory I had been teaching, and they want me to know about it. Those came in the days when students connected with me and other faculty in a human-to-human relationship and made critical and analytical connections. Now the emails are about wanting a few more points for something, or having an issue with technology, or saying that they’re confused even though they later admit to having never read whatever they said they were confused about.

Two things happened in higher education around the same time, both of which have been fairly detrimental to the whole experience: One is the openness of the online gradebook; the other is email. Of course, many things have contaminated higher education both from the outside and from the inside, but two things are for sure: The instantly transparent grade book gives students the chance to immediately react to a grade, and they can then email a professor with their dissatisfaction.

This is one of those moments where I can really say I did walk a mile and trudge uphill in the snow to find out about a grade. I was an undergraduate student at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and when professors posted grades, it was on a sheet outside their office door, and since we didn’t have email, we just relied on when they said they might be posting the grades. It was common to arrive at the door and find that nothing was posted yet. We did not bang on the door, asking why it had taken a little longer. We didn’t march to the provost’s or president’s office and demand to talk to someone about our complaints. Instead, we walked back downhill, picked up a coffee, and headed home. A day or two later, we would try again. And if we had questions about those grades, we checked the syllabus for when the office hours were and planned to see the professor then.

Students aren’t discerning what is an emergency, or when it is appropriate to contact someone, or why it’s inappropriate to ask for special favors like redos, extra assignments, or extra credit. Do they really think I’m going to do it for them and no one else? And if they think their begging and quibbling will get me to offer an opportunity to the whole class, they’re not thinking about the massive undertaking it is to add additional grading assignments to a syllabus.

It’s the world larger than themselves that I’m forever trying to get them to see. 

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/social-lights/202512/the-new-college-version-of-the-dog-ate-my-homework

 

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 December 10, 2025

1. XLK Tech ETF Up 11 Days in a Row

XLK is up 11 straight days.  This is the 3rd longest streak in history! Dave Lutz Jones Trading


2. AI Mentioned in 306 Earnings Calls Q3 by S&P Companies

FactSet


3. Utilities that Power AI Pulling Back…XLU Utility ETF

StockCharts


4. Next Bid AI Event….ORCL Earnings Wednesday …Stock 1/3 Off Highs

Barrons

StockCharts


5. Leveraged ETFs Hit $239B AUM

Barchart


6. Recovery from Covid ….Restaurants and Hotels Lead

The Irrelevant Investor


7. India IPO Boom

Semafor


8. 10-Year Treasury Going the Wrong Way


9. Small Cap Stocks Need Lower Rates (IWM) ..Ticks from New Highs

StockCharts


10. Rich People, Poor Morals: Wealthy Are The Most Likely To Rip Off Self-Checkout Machines

by Tyler Durden  Rich people, poorer morals? A new LendingTree report claims the shoppers most likely to rip off the self-checkout machine aren’t the desperate — they’re the well-off, according to the NY Post.

Americans making over $100,000 a year are twice as likely to steal at self-checkout compared to low-income shoppers. A hefty 40% of six-figure earners admitted they’ve deliberately skipped scanning an item, while just 17% of those making under $30,000 confessed to the same.

The Post writes that middle-income households didn’t look much better: 27% of people earning between $50K and $99K say they’ve helped themselves without paying. And men are the biggest culprits overall, with 38% admitting to theft versus only 16% of women.

Even with AI scanners and weight sensors trying to outsmart sticky fingers, self-checkout theft is still rising.

A chunk of shoppers don’t feel bad about it either. Nearly one-third say big retailers make plenty of money, so swiping something “doesn’t hurt.” Another 35% defend the habit by claiming they’re basically unpaid store workers and grabbing an item or two is “compensation.”

Still, most blame inflation rather than guilt-free shoplifting. Forty-seven percent say rising prices are forcing people to cheat at the register — meaning even wealthy shoppers might be feeling the squeeze, just not enough to pay for everything in their cart.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rich-people-poorer-morals-wealthy-are-most-likely-rip-self-checkout-machines

 

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 December 09, 2025

1. AI Pace of Change

UBS shows, “The longest human task (by duration) that an LLM can complete with at least 50% success rate is doubling every 7 months.”

Zach Goldberg Jefferies


2. Semiconductor ETF SMH…A Couple Ticks from New Highs

StockCharts


3. Schwab vs. Robinhood

Michael Batnick


4. Market Tops Usually Preceded by IPO Boom….IPO ETF Not Booming….+1% Last 12 Months

StockCharts


5. IPO Drought ….Companies Staying Private Longer

Blackrock Institute


6. Waymo Vehicles Far Less Crashes

chartr


7. Nancy Pelosi $130M in Stock Trade Profits

Peter Mallouk


8. Pentagon Deploys Kamikaze Drones $35k

WSJ The drone is fully autonomous, meaning it can operate with little or no human interaction, relying on sensors and artificial intelligence to navigate to its target. It can fly for about six hours, according to SpektreWorks.

Each FLM 136, also known as Lucas, costs $35,000, according to Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesman for Central Command. The MQ-9 Reaper drones cost an estimated $16 million, according to a spokesman for General Atomics, its manufacturer. In many cases, kamikaze drones cost far less than the interceptors used to shoot them down.

WSJ


9. Dr. Mark Hyman Longevity

Mark Hyman


10. Prof G on the State of U.S. Education

PROF G MEDIA

 

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 December 08, 2025

1. Credit Default Rates Improving-Torsten Slok

Apollo


2. Markets Don’t Top Out When Investors are Pessimistic…How About 2025 Being 4th Most Pessimistic Year on Record?

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright


3. Was Trump the Bottom in Clean Energy Stocks?  Global X CleanTech +60% YTD


4. Trump was Bottom in Clean Energy Stocsk….Invesco Clean Energy ETF +54% YTD

Google Finance


5. Commodites Index Breaking Out of 3 Year Sideways Pattern

StockCharts


6. Never Bet Against the American Consumer Spending Money….Retail Index About to Make New Highs for XMAS

StockCharts


7. Polymarkets New World for “Insider” Trading—From Howard Lindzon

haeju.eth


8. Markets with Biggest Rent Deflation

Nick Gerli


9. 39% of U.S. Land is Farmland

Mapped: Farmland by State in 2025

Niccolo Conte  Ryan Bellefontaine Joyce Ma

Mapped: Farmland by State in 2025

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Key Takeaways

  • Farmland covers 876 million acres, or 39% of U.S. land.
  • Great Plains states dominate: Nebraska tops the list at 89.5% farmland.

Much of the vast space of the U.S. is occupied by farmland, which produces many of the most demanded commodities. But which states have the most of their area used by farms?

The map uses the latest data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to show the share of each state’s land area used for farming.

Visual Capitalist


10. How Purpose Envy Misleads Us

Stop chasing someone else’s life path and build a meaningful one of your own.-Psychology Today

Key points Jordan Grumet M.D.

  • Envy harms well-being, especially when comparing others’ purpose to our own.
  • Purpose envy is fueled by social media, influencers, and unrealistic highlight reels.
  • You can’t co-opt someone else’s purpose; true purpose must align with your own values.
  • Focus on what you want and are willing to work for; envy fades when you’re embracing your path.

Envy arises when we compare ourselves to someone else and conclude they’re better off. We’ve all been there. Envy is a universal emotion, but it’s also a corrosive one. In a large longitudinal study of more than 18,000 adults, researchers found that higher levels of envy predicted poorer well-being years later. Put simply: The more envious we are, the worse we tend to feel over time.

Most of us would love to sidestep that emotion entirely. But when it comes to purpose—our sense of direction and meaning—it’s getting harder than ever to avoid.

Although psychologists haven’t yet named it formally, purpose envy is becoming a modern condition. We scroll through feeds full of people who seem to know exactly why they’re here and what they’re meant to do. They’ve branded their purpose, packaged it beautifully, and broadcast it to millions. For young people in particular, this can be intoxicating. Searching for a relatable version of purpose, they often model their lives on the influencers they follow: the entrepreneur building a seven-figure business, the traveler living out of a van, the artist who “made it” by 25.

The problem isn’t admiration. It’s imitation. When we confuse someone else’s highlight reel for a road map, we end up chasing a life that isn’t ours.

And it’s not just a Gen Z issue.

When Admiration Turns to Envy

I’ll admit it: I’ve felt purpose envy myself. I’m a fan of Scott Galloway—the professor, podcaster, and author whose work (like The Algebra of Wealth and The Prof G Pod) dives deep into ideas that matter to me. He’s articulate, accomplished, financially successful, and undeniably purposeful.

I admire him. But I also envy him.

That envy used to sting until I realized something important: As much as I admire Galloway, I don’t actually want to be him. That insight changed everything. It revealed why escaping purpose envy might be simpler than we think.

Here are three truths that helped me, and might help you, put purpose envy in its place.

1. Purpose Can’t Be Co-Opted

Everywhere you look, someone is trying to sell you a version of purpose.

Social media influencers wrap it around whatever they’re promoting. If they’re selling designer sneakers, purpose becomes fashion. If they’re promoting travel, purpose becomes seeing the world. If they’re pushing protein supplements, purpose becomes fitness.

Advertisers do the same. They frame purpose as luxury, vitality, or success. Anything that convinces you their product will complete you. Even family members can unintentionally project their version of purpose onto you (“We just want you to have the opportunities we didn’t”).

The catch? All of these versions of purpose serve their goals, not yours.

To “co-opt” means to absorb something for your own use, often in a way that dilutes its original meaning. When we internalize someone else’s idea of purpose—whether it’s an influencer’s, a brand’s, or a parent’s—the result is usually frustration, not fulfillment.

Your purpose can’t be bought, borrowed, or inherited. It’s not something you “find” by copying someone else’s story. It’s something you build by paying attention to what makes you feel alive, and what you’re willing to work for.

2. Ask Yourself: Am I Willing to Put in the Work?

It’s easy to envy someone else’s life when you’re only seeing the rewards. But purpose isn’t built on envy; it’s built on effort.

When I catch myself wishing I had Scott Galloway’s platform or career, I ask a simple question: Am I willing to do what he does to get it?Do I want to travel constantly, spend long weeks recording podcasts, running businesses, and giving talks? Do I want to live that pace, that public life?

The honest answer is no.

Many of us want the outcomes of someone else’s purpose, but not the sacrifices it requires. We envy the destination without wanting to take the journey. And that’s a sign that what we’re craving isn’t their purpose—it’s the feeling of fulfillment we imagine they have.

Once you realize that, envy starts to lose its grip.

3. You Don’t Have to Want the Whole Package

When we compare ourselves to others, we tend to fixate on the highlights: the parts of their lives that look enviable. But we rarely consider the full picture.

I might wish I had Galloway’s platform, but I don’t necessarily want his schedule, his scrutiny, or his stress. Like most people, I only envy select pieces of his life.

Purpose envy tricks us into forgetting that every life is a bundle of trade-offs. You can’t have the good parts without the costs that come with them. And when you look closely, you may find that you don’t actually want the whole package. You just want a more authentic version of your own.

When I remember that, I’m reminded that my life, as ordinary as it sometimes feels, already reflects a set of choices I value: time with family, creative autonomy, work that feels meaningful on my own terms.

The Paradox of Purpose Envy

Here’s the irony: Envy isn’t always bad. Sometimes, it’s a compass. It points to something you value but haven’t yet developed. Seeing another writer or podcaster succeed can spark the motivation to improve your craft or commit to a project you’ve been neglecting.

But if you let envy steer the ship, you’ll end up chasing other people’s dreams instead of building your own.

Purpose envy thrives on comparison. It fades when you start paying attention to your own direction.

In the End

Purpose envy is common, but it rarely serves us. It encourages us to adopt someone else’s story, complete with their costs, instead of writing our own.

The truth is, most of us are already living parts of our purpose; we just overlook them because they don’t look grand or glamorous. The envy we feel toward others can be a cue, not a curse: a reminder to get curious about what truly drives us.

Because in the end, purpose isn’t something you envy. It’s something you earn by paying attention, doing the work, and refusing to let anyone else define what it means for you.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-regret-free-life/202511/how-purpose-envy-misleads-us

 

 

 

 

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 December 05, 2025

1. GOOGL +87% vs. NVDA +28% One Year

YCharts


2. Gold Now Outperforming S&P 500 for 30 Years

Barchart


3. Retail Investors Buying Gold ETF

Retail and GLD

Retail has bought as much GLD in 2025 as in the previous 5 years.

ZeroHedge


4. Open AI vs. Historical Young Start Up Cash Burners

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank On the subject of ChatGPT, it’s been eye-opening to read of the predicted losses that OpenAI will likely experience in the next few years. Based on a Wall Street Journal report, which cited company projections provided to investors over the summer, OpenAI forecasts revenue of $345 billion between 2024 and 2029. Assuming this is all cash, we then calculate $488bn of spending, mainly to pay for access to compute, to arrive at their projected cumulative free cash flow of $143bn. And that was before the most recent announcements of $1.4 trillion in data centre commitments. A broker has more recently said the cash burn could exceed $200bn by 2030.

I thought it would be interesting to look at the largest cumulative losses in history from a young company or a start-up before they turned in a profit. So I asked ChatGPT to give me a table of these companies, detailing the total losses and over which years. We used this to create today’s CoTD. We added in OpenAI’s expected cash burn and also included its rival Anthropic, also using data from the Journal. I double-checked the historic numbers against Bloomberg data and they were broadly in line.

ChatGPT also pointed out that some companies had reported larger annual losses, citing AOL Time Warner’s $99 billion loss in 2002 and a similar size loss for AIG in 2008. Meanwhile, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac lost $77bn and $59bn respectively within only three quarters when the GFC struck. However, these were well established companies with long track records of profitability before huge troubles hit.


5. Mag 7 Outperforms QQQ and SPY 9 of Last 10 Years

Koyfin


6. Quality Stock Factor Underperforming 2025

Quality Underperformance…BofA noted, Globally, the Quality style has underperformed by 5.5% YTD, and the Global Steady Compounders have experienced the worst 12-month relative return in 25 years. 3 reasons stand out. Firstly, the global earnings cycle is improving, and earnings stable Quality stocks tend to lag in upturns. Secondly, the Risk style – almost the opposite of Quality – has had one of the best years on record. Thirdly, a few themes have driven market performance this year (including AI, Defense, Gold, Rare Earth, Nuclear Energy, and Quantum Computing) and these stocks have a high average beta (1.28).

Zachary Goldberg-Jefferies


7. American Eagle Stock One Tick from New Highs

StockCharts


8. Japanese Government Bond Yields Highest in 20 Years

Mohamed A. El-Erian


9. International Stocks on Track for First Outperformance vs. U.S. in 16 Years

Novel Investor


10. Facts from The Idea Farm

The Idea Farm

Investing

If you randomly picked a trading day for the Dow Jones Industrial Average between 1930-2020, there is over a 95% chance that the Dow would close lower on some trading day in the future. That means that roughly 1 in 20 trading days would provide you with an absolute bargain. The other 19 would give you the feeling of buyer’s remorse at some point in the future. Link

More than 10 funds will distribute at least 25% in capital gains this year. Link

Since the 1990s, the World Portfolio has grown from 75% to over 200% of world GDP. Link

Of the largest 10 stocks in the S&P 500 Index in 1985, none are still in the top 10. Link

The Thiel Fellowship has a 5.9% Unicorn hit rate. Link

Just 3% of companies generated all the shareholder wealth in the US stock market from 1926-2022. Source: Bessembinder

If you break down the distribution of cumulative returns for stocks in the S&P 500 for the past 25 years:

  • The median/arithmetic return was 59%/452%.
  • The average return has been greater than the median for The S&P 500’s constituents in 20 out of the past 24 years. Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices

In 1812, financial stocks—banks and insurance companies—constituted an estimated 71% of total U.S. stock-market capitalization. No other sector even amounted to 14%. Link

Alternative Investing

There are more private equity funds than McDonald’s restaurants in the world. Link

Nearly half of gold production is used for jewelry. Link

39% of U.S. land area is used by farms, totaling 876 million acres of farmland. Link

On Jan. 1, 2015, there were 1,345 alternative mutual funds in existence. Only 341 still existed on June 30, 2025 – a 75% mortality rate. Link

In 2021 alone, 478 (30.7%) of all U.S. unicorns hit the $1B mark. Link

Most unicorns exit after a median (average) of 8 (9) years, counting from founding. “Exit” means going public, acquisition, or liquidation/bankruptcy. Link

https://news.theideafarm.com/p/50-facts-from-2h-2025