1. NYSE Composite of Stocks New Highs Best in 3 Years
2. Post-Election Solar Stock ETF New Lows
3. Post Election Marijuana ETF Approaching Lows
4. 2023-2024 2/3 of S&P Stocks Underperformed Index
Spilled Coffee Blog Eric Soda Look at the high number of S&P 500 stocks that are underperforming the S&P 500 index. In 2023 and midway through 2024, roughly 2/3 of stocks have underperformed.
TLT -10% correction going into election…Sitting on 200-day—third time since Summer.
2. 10-Year Bond Same Chart
3. Perplexity AI Telling me 10-Year Return on AGG Bond Index is 1.81%…Inflation Adjusted Negative.
4. Russell 2000 Small Cap +6% Pre-Market
Jack Ablin Cresset High-Quality US Small Caps Best Performers Immediately Post-Elections-High-quality US small caps (S&P 600) tend to be the best-performing equity sector in the days following a presidential election. The S&P 600 advanced in six of the last seven elections in the 90 days following elections, with 2008 the notable exception. Going back to 1996, the S&P 600 enjoyed a median 8.7 per cent return between Election Day and Inauguration Day, outpacing all major equity asset classes, although with a higher high and a lower low than their counterparts.
Winning the 2024 election can help Donald Trump in all four of his criminal cases.
Trump has vowed to fire the special prosecutor who brought two federal cases against him.
Being president-elect may also help him delay his state cases in Georgia and New York.
Donald Trump‘s presidential victory is also a win as he seeks to resolve his four criminal indictments. His win may largely free Trump from dealing with his criminal cases for the foreseeable future, experts told Business Insider. “Setting politics aside, there is a lot at stake legally for Trump” in the November 5 election, former federal prosecutor Neama Rahmani predicted early in the day Tuesday. Here’s what will happen with Trump’s four criminal cases — two federal and two state — moving forward.
Donald Trump confers with his defense lawyer Todd Blanche in his hush-money trial before New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan. Jane Rosenberg/AP
The New York hush-money case Trump, the first US president convicted of a crime, has a November 26 Manhattan sentencing date on his calendar. He faces a sentencing range of as little as no jail and as much as four years in prison for his May conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to cover up his $130,000 hush-money payment to the adult film actor Stormy Daniels. There is a chance the sentencing date will be delayed. Trump has promised to fight his indictment and conviction in New York’s appellate courts. He will likely argue that the evidence in the case includes acts that took place while serving in his official role as president — evidence that would be barred under July’s landmark US Supreme Court presidential immunity decision. Once he’s sentenced, experts say further appeals could keep a jail sentence on hold for years — though a jail sentence is highly unlikely, a quartet of former New York judges previously told BI.Winning the presidency could now push things back even further, as Trump could argue he’s too busy running the country to tend to his personal legal issues. Prior to the election results, Michael Dorf, a Cornell Law School professor, predicted that if Trump won, he would quickly file court papers to delay the sentencing until he is no longer president. Rahmani, the president and cofounder of West Coast Trial Lawyers, said that he does not believe Trump would be sentenced to jail “regardless of the outcome of the election.” “Trump winning makes it logistically impossible and a certainty that he won’t receive any time,” Rahmani said.
Trump’s federal cases Trump was indicted on two federal charges, both brought by special counsel Jack Smith, which would be eligible for presidential pardon, though a self-pardon has never been tried.Once president, Trump could ask his attorney general to fire Smith. He could also ask the courts to halt the federal prosecutions as there is long-standing Justice Department policy that a sitting president cannot be prosecuted while in office or attempt to pardon himself, said Dorf. Trump said on a conservative radio interview last month that if elected, he would fire Smith “within two seconds.” Justice Department regulations stipulate that a special counsel can only be fired for a good cause, but Trump could have his attorney general rescind that regulation, Dorf said. Firing Smith “is basically his right as president, though I would expect Smith to resign before then, just as a matter of course,” said Michel Paradis, an attorney who teaches national security and constitutional law at Columbia Law School. “The key thing to watch would be what Jack Smith does between Election Day and January 20 to potentially protect those prosecutions from interference,” Paradis said. “There’s not a lot he can do to make them ironclad since, at the end of the day, the president does control the Justice Department,” Paradis added,Paradis said that before Trump took the oath of office, Smith could try to stay both proceedings, on the grounds that sitting presidents cannot be prosecuted while in office.Trump has pleaded not guilty to both federal indictments. Asked for a comment, Steven Cheung, Trump’s campaign spokesman, told BI: “The Lyin’ Kamala Harris – Crooked Joe Biden Witch Hunts against President Trump have imploded just like their failed campaign, and should all be dismissed in light of the Supreme Court’s historic decision on immunity and other vital jurisprudence.”
A DOJ spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The federal election-interference caseEven if Trump had lost, Smith’s prosecution of Trump on charges he tried to overturn the 2020 election wouldn’t necessarily have barrelled ahead at full speed.Citizen Trump could have continued to challenge the election-interference case on the grounds of presidential immunity, experts said. In July, the US Supreme Court issued a landmark opinion that provides presidents with broad protection from being prosecuted for official acts while in office. The opinion also bars the use of official-act evidence in any prosecution of a former president, even on charges not relating to official acts.In August, Smith won a revised indictment that narrowed the charges against Trump to cover acts he took as a private, office-seeking citizen.
The federal classified documents case Another federal charge against Trump, alleging he failed to return classified government documents he took from the White House, was dismissed in July by the Trump-appointed US District Judge Aileen Cannon, who said Smith’s appointment violated the Constitution.The dismissal, which argues Congress should have approved Smith’s appointment, is now being appealed by Smith in the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals. Smith’s appeal revolves around what he calls “the long tradition of special-counsel appointments by Attorneys’ General.”
The Georgia election-interference case The election interference case in Georgia against Trump and 18 of his associates remains in legal limbo, thanks to the defendants’ efforts to get the Fulton County district attorney, Fani Willis, disqualified from the case.In May, a Georgia appeals court agreed to consider Trump’s bid to get Willis removed from the case.Attorneys for Trump and his codefendants argued that Willis had a conflict of interest in the case because she improperly benefited from a romantic relationship with Nathan Wade, the Atlanta lawyer she hired as a special prosecutor. After an evidentiary hearing earlier this year, a judge ruled that Willis and her office could remain on the case so long as Wade stepped aside, and Wade announced his resignation hours later.Trump has pleaded not guilty to the Georgia indictment.If Trump had lost the election, the case could have moved forward, though Trump would likely have moved to get it dismissed based on the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity ruling. As the election winner, however, he can file papers with the Georgia court “saying you got to put this on hold for the time that I’m president because it’s just not consistent with federal supremacy to have a state prosecuting a sitting president,” Dorf, a constitutional law expert, told BI on Tuesday. “He doesn’t control the prosecutors, so you can’t fire them, and he can’t pardon himself because these are state crimes, so his only option really in the state cases is suspend them,” said Dorf.
November 6, 2026: This story was updated after the election was called for Donald Trump.
7. The French crypto whale looks to have made $47 million from his Trump bets
Marketwatch By Steve Goldstein The French national who ran four interrelated accounts on the crypto betting site Polymarket has profited handsomely from his bets on former President Donald Trump.The user’s combined profit was over $47 million, according to MarketWatch calculations of the accounts. The accounts — Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie — can be viewed in real time. The size of the user’s bets were so large that some had feared it was deliberate market manipulation. But the site’s own investigation — as well as an interview conducted by the Wall Street Journal — said the user simply had a strong belief that Trump would win and bet accordingly.
8. The Global Wellness Industry is Bigger than Sport and Pharma…$6.32 Trillion
Bloomberg By Sarah Rappaport The global wellness industry was worth $6.32 trillion in 2023, according to a new report from the Global Wellness Institute, a leading industry group. That’s 25% larger than it was in 2019, making it bigger than the sports and pharmaceutical industries. “Growth was even stronger than we predicted,” says Katherine Johnson, one of the authors of the Global Wellness Economy Monitor. She added that the wellness industry was boosted by the focus on health and well-being as a result of the pandemic. Research from the nonprofit argues that trends such as an aging population, chronic disease and an increased focus on mental health are helping drive growth.
9. As America’s Marijuana Use Grows, So Do the Harms -NY Times
The drug, legal in much of the country, is widely seen as nonaddictive and safe. For some users, these assumptions are dangerously wrong. By Megan TwoheyDanielle Ivory and Carson Kessler
The reporters are continuing to examine cannabis policies, use of the drug and the rise of the commercial market. If you have a story or information to share, please contact us here. In midcoast Maine, a pediatrician sees teenagers so dependent on cannabis that they consume it practically all day, every day — “a remarkably scary amount,” she said.
From Washington State to West Virginia, psychiatrists treat rising numbers of people whose use of the drug has brought on delusions, paranoia and other symptoms of psychosis.
And in the emergency departments of small community hospitals and large academic medical centers alike, physicians encounter patients with severe vomiting induced by the drug — a potentially devastating condition that once was rare but now, they say, is common. “Those patients look so sick,” said a doctor in Ohio, who described them “writhing around in pain.”
As marijuana legalization has accelerated across the country, doctors are contending with the effects of an explosion in the use of the drug and its intensity. A $33 billion industry has taken root, turning out an ever-expanding range of cannabis products so intoxicating they bear little resemblance to the marijuana available a generation ago. Tens of millions of Americans use the drug, for medical or recreational purposes — most of them without problems.
I’m usually reluctant to make predictions about technology, but I feel fairly confident about this one: in a couple decades there won’t be many people who can write.
One of the strangest things you learn if you’re a writer is how many people have trouble writing. Doctors know how many people have a mole they’re worried about; people who are good at setting up computers know how many people aren’t; writers know how many people need help writing.
The reason so many people have trouble writing is that it’s fundamentally difficult. To write well you have to think clearly, and thinking clearly is hard.
And yet writing pervades many jobs, and the more prestigious the job, the more writing it tends to require.
These two powerful opposing forces, the pervasive expectation of writing and the irreducible difficulty of doing it, create enormous pressure. This is why eminent professors often turn out to have resorted to plagiarism. The most striking thing to me about these cases is the pettiness of the thefts. The stuff they steal is usually the most mundane boilerplate — the sort of thing that anyone who was even halfway decent at writing could turn out with no effort at all. Which means they’re not even halfway decent at writing.
Till recently there was no convenient escape valve for the pressure created by these opposing forces. You could pay someone to write for you, like JFK, or plagiarize, like MLK, but if you couldn’t buy or steal words, you had to write them yourself. And as a result nearly everyone who was expected to write had to learn how.
Not anymore. AI has blown this world open. Almost all pressure to write has dissipated. You can have AI do it for you, both in school and at work.
The result will be a world divided into writes and write-nots. There will still be some people who can write. Some of us like it. But the middle ground between those who are good at writing and those who can’t write at all will disappear. Instead of good writers, ok writers, and people who can’t write, there will just be good writers and people who can’t write.
Is that so bad? Isn’t it common for skills to disappear when technology makes them obsolete? There aren’t many blacksmiths left, and it doesn’t seem to be a problem.
Yes, it’s bad. The reason is something I mentioned earlier: writing is thinking. In fact there’s a kind of thinking that can only be done by writing. You can’t make this point better than Leslie Lamport did: If you’re thinking without writing, you only think you’re thinking. So a world divided into writes and write-nots is more dangerous than it sounds. It will be a world of thinks and think-nots. I know which half I want to be in, and I bet you do too.
This situation is not unprecedented. In preindustrial times most people’s jobs made them strong. Now if you want to be strong, you work out. So there are still strong people, but only those who choose to be.
It will be the same with writing. There will still be smart people, but only those who choose to be.
10. Why Grit and Willpower Fail and What to Do Instead -Psychology Today
Exploring the merits of healthy hedonism when it comes to wellness-Mike Rucker Ph.D. Key points
Treat exercise as a fun activity rather than a chore to foster consistency and enjoyment in wellness routines.
Shifting from restrictive diets to a positive relationship with food supports lasting health and satisfaction.
Over-quantifying wellness can harm enjoyment; too much tracking risks turning joy into obligation.
Enjoying wellness activities, aka “healthy hedonism,” is crucial for sustaining positive health behaviors.
Too often, aspirations in the pursuit of wellness are misguided. The advice takes on a perfectionistic angle, pushing individuals to believe that rigid standards are what is required to move the needle when it comes to improving health.
Recently, my medical provider just pushed out a newsletter advocating the 75 Hard program, an ultra-rigid self-improvement protocol with such a high bar that a quick Google search makes it clear it sets most participants up for failure. In my provider’s defense, their newsletters are put together well and generally well-researched. However, this particular one (I presume) was meant to be more inspirational in nature. Still, I felt compelled as a behavioral scientist to let them know that research indicates that wellness regimens that require this unforgiving level of adherence have a poor track record of long-term success. On the contrary, these types of programs come with the risk of actually harming both physiological and psychological well-being. Instead, what is emerging as one of the most useful components of any health intervention is enjoying the journey. Engaging in something you at least derive some pleasure from—sometimes referred to as healthy hedonism—appears to be a stronger predictor of sustained wellness behavior when compared to most other factors.
It Starts With Finding What Works for You When it comes to exercise, one size does not fit all. The good news is that the wellness landscape has significantly evolved over the past few decades to offer a diverse selection of approaches to fitness and movement, which means there is a high likelihood that there is a type of exercise or wellness practice that fits your preferences and lifestyle. As someone whose livelihood depends on helping health club operators design the optimal customer experience, it is not surprising I caught some flack when I wrote in my book The Fun Habit, “If you hate the gym, don’t go! It’s not for everybody. Instead, pick a physical activity with no commute, like bodyweight exercises in your own home or a nature hike in a nearby park.” But the assertion wasn’t meant to cause controversy. On the contrary, it was to highlight the fact that when people don’t find fun in what they’re doing, they tend to fail. When we start our health journey by honoring our unique preferences, we are able to redefine wellness as a source of joy. When we stack the deck in our favor by scheduling activities we are drawn to that are also helpful in supporting a healthy lifestyle, we don’t need to rely on willpower to push through and keep going when it comes to fitness. Instead, we turn exercise into something “we get to do” rather than something “we have to do.”
The Joy of Cooking Healthy hedonism isn’t just about fitness; it is also about embracing the enjoyment of food without the guilt often attached to indulgence. Weight loss programs that are restrictive are well-known to have a low success rate, yet this fact has done little to slow down the popularity of fad dieting. When we are able to move away from the idea of a “diet” and instead cultivate a healthier relationship with eating—free from restrictive diets and shame cycles—we generally have better long-term results. Learning to cook with nutrition-dense whole foods, appreciating the flavors and colors of nutritious meals, as well as the experience of eating well-crafted dishes, mitigates the hazards of processed foods and mindless eating.
Prioritizing Experience Over Metrics With so many health apps at our fingertips, it’s easy to reduce our wellness to numbers. I am a strong advocate of digital health, and when designed well, the right contextually relevant piece of consumer health technology can have a substantial positive impact on one’s health. However, I am also an opponent of overly quantifying health because of its negative impact on healthy hedonism. Dr. Jordan Etkin, a researcher from Duke University, has looked into this extensively. Her research highlights some of the unintended negative consequences of overfocusing on health metrics served up by technology, which can erode the inherent fun from an activity we once found enjoyable. For instance, while activity trackers might initially increase the frequency we partake in an activity because they focus our attention on the amount we are doing (such as walking or reading), this redirection of attention runs the risk of simultaneously reducing how much we intrinsically enjoy those activities. Over time, the result is that we are no longer drawn to the activity we once enjoyed, so we abandon it. Unfortunately, this phenomenon transcends physical activity into other areas of wellness. For instance, the popular meditation app Waking Up, created by Sam Harris, removed the prominence of its quantitative features when Sam recognized they were creating what he referred to as “spiritual materialism”—bringing the user’s focus outward instead of inward (where an inward focus is the app’s goal).
Healthy Hedonism at Its Best Across all domains, prioritizing presence allows us to savor our experience and connect with what we enjoy, whether it’s a workout, meal, or mindfulness session. In doing so, healthy hedonism steers our focus away from outcomes that are often ephemeral if they are too goal-oriented and instead keeps our focus on finding the joy in what we do and what we experience, nurturing a rewarding relationship with wellness—a basket of fun habits where the result is a long-term sustainable strategy toward maintaining our well-being.
From Dave Lutz Jones TradingAlamanacTrader notes November-January is the top 3-month period for DJIA and S&P 500 in all years and election years. In all years since 1950 DJIA is up 4.3% on average, up 71.6% of the time. S&P averages 4.4%, up 73.0% of the time. In election years, DJIA is up on average 4.3%, up 72.2% of the time while S&P is up on average 4.0%, up 72.2% of the time.
Bespoke Investors While yesterday ended up being the worst Halloween trading day since 2011, the S&P 500 still ended the month with a year-to-date gain of 19.6%. That’s good enough for 2024 to be the best Election Year through October since 1936!
Koylin shows, Estée Lauder has an incredible 10Y chart. The first seven years had a 26% CAGR, followed by three years of a (-44%) CAGR, and now the 10-year total return is close to dropping below 0%.-Zach Goldberg Jefferies
5. Mutual Fund Cash Levels at Historical Low Levels
From the Daily Chartbook Blog
6. Summary of 10-Year Yield Action
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright -10-year yields comprised of inflation expectations and real rates You can think of it as the sum of: + 10-year inflation expectations (what markets think annual inflation will average over the next 10 years) + 10-year real rate (a proxy for expected real economic growth) And the +60bps increase in the 10-year Treasury yield (chart below, black line) is driven by both the inflation (orange line) and real (green line) components.
Inflation expectations increasing on stronger economy, geopolitical tensions, and government spending 10-year inflation expectations are up +20bps (orange line) to 2.3%. There are a few reasons why: + Rising geopolitical tensions, which could increase energy inflation + With analysts projecting both Presidential candidates will increase government spending (especially in red wave/blue wave outcomes), expectations are rising that increased government demand will boost inflation + A stronger economy (next section) sees increased demand, adding to inflation Real rates rising on a stronger economy and Fed rate cuts reducing recession odds 10-year real rates are up +40bps (green line) to 1.95%. Again, for multiple reasons: + The Fed’s pivot to rate cuts reduced the risk of recession, meaning higher average economic growth over the next 10 years + Stronger-than-expected economic data over the last couple months (+254k jobs in September, Services PMI up to 17-month high, better consumer spending, etc) further reduced recession odds + Expectations of increased government spending (previous section) will add to economic growth
Bloomberg By Keith Naughton –Sticker shock is increasingly scaring off many would-be buyers. A recent survey by automotive researcher Edmunds.com found that almost half of American car shoppers expect to pay $35,000 or less for a new car. That makes sense because the average trade-in is six years old, which means those buyers last purchased a new car back when the average price was in the mid-30s. When they return to the showroom and discover they’ll have to pay almost $50,000, they’re walking away. The Edmunds survey found that 73% of consumers are holding off on buying a new car because of the cost.
9. Private Equity Shifts to Operational Efficiency of Portfolio Companies
Pitchbook Madeline Shi The PE industry is placing a greater emphasis on enhancing the value of portfolio companies by improving their operations—or at least, that’s the message many GPs are trying to convey to their LPs, industry participants tell me.
The concept of value creation has taken on new importance as high interest rates and a tepid exit environment have forced many firms to reinvent the strategies they use to generate returns.
“Many of them in the past were doing great by just doing ‘buy low, sell high,’ having the right strategy for portfolio companies, placing the right management and using financial leverage,” said Romain Bégramian, a managing partner at Paris-based advisory firm GP-Score. “But now they’re eager to improve operational value creation, or at least they are saying that to their investors.”
The strategy was spotlighted on Apollo‘s investor day in October, when the private equity titan lauded its ability to capture excess return in its PE investments through operational improvements at portfolio companies. That came in stark contrast to the broader PE industry’s strategy for the last decade which, by and large, leaned most often on multiple expansion and topline growth for returns.
David Sambur, the co-head of equity at Apollo, quipped: “What is the purpose of investing in private equity if it’s just levered beta on steroids?” As I reported this week in “Mid-market deals fare best in boosting profitability,” the ability to grow margins tends to set the best PE investments apart.
A difficult market for selling assets has also prompted GPs to pay more attention to operational matters—crafting ways to improve cash flow, widen margins and formulate detailed plans for long-term strategic growth.
But improving portfolio companies this way is no small feat. It is an intricate undertaking that impacts various aspects of a company, including its operations, technology and people.
Operational value creation could involve any number of projects, such as optimizing a legacy IT system or reducing surplus raw materials accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic. It could mean an exciting endeavor to implement cutting-edge technology—AI, for example—or involve making a tough decision to cut long-tenured employees.
Tiny Thoughts * Attention isn’t free. It’s the most valuable thing you spend. ** Flashy gets attention. Boring gets results. While most chase the views, the greats obsess over the basics. *** Don’t curse the obstacle; find a way around it. Elite special forces don’t complain about defenses—they adapt their tactics or create new ones. When a primary route is compromised, they don’t waste time lamenting. They quickly shift to another approach. Elite athletes don’t complain about defenses—they find the gap or create one. Face the obstacle. Find the gap. Or make one.
Insights * Agatha Christie on love: “It is a curious thought, but it is only when you see people looking ridiculous that you realize just how much you love them.” ** Alexander Graham Bell on looking for the opportunity: “When one door closes, another opens; but we often look so long and so regretfully upon the closed door that we do not see the ones which open for us.” *** Sam Altman on avoiding regrets: “If you think you’re going to regret not doing something, you should probably do it. Regret is the worst, and most people regret far more things they didn’t do than things they did do.” https://fs.blog/
3. SMCI Hit $114 in March 2024…$29 Last..Down -75% from Highs
4. Blast from Covid Past Charts…PTON +46%
PTON +46% year to date…50 day thru 200 day to upside.
5. Blast from Covid Past …Carvana +400% Year to Date
50 week about to cross above 200 week to upside.
6. ASML Continues Correction…-40% from Highs
ASML Closes below 200 week moving average on long-term chart.
7. Car Sales in Europe
Dave Lutz at Jones Trading TIT FOR TAT China has told its automakers to halt big investment in European countries that support extra tariffs on Chinese-built electric vehicles (EVs), two people briefed about the matter said, a move likely to further divide Europe. The new European Union tariffs of up to 45.3 per cent came into effect on Oct 30 after a year-long anti-subsidy investigation into EV imports from China that divided the bloc and prompted retaliation from Beijing.
The move by the Chinese authorities to suspend some investment in Europe would suggest that the government, keen to avoid a sharp fall in EV exports to the key market, is seeking leverage in talks with the EU over an alternative to tariffs.
8. Alphabet Cash Flow Breakdown
9. Ukraine and Chinese Nationals 400k Encounters at Border
