1. Microsoft: Which Way Will Sideways Pattern Break? Up or Down?
StockCharts
2. Software ETF Below Highs
StockCharts
3. UPS Has Worst Single Day Ever…-40% from Highs
StockCharts
4. GOLD: New High Yesterday
StockCharts
5. Which S&P Sectors Hold the Most Cash?
Visual Capitalist
6. Healthcare: 2-Years of Underperformance
SentimenTrader
7. Factory Construction in the U.S.
Bespoke Premium
8. Military Spending has Almost Doubled Since the 90’s
Statista
9. Share of Religious Nationalism
Pew Research
10. You Want to Do Big Things
Via The Daily Stoic: You want to do big things. You want to achieve. You want to leave your mark on the universe. You want to conquer the world.
This is what Alexander the Great did—literally. And yet where did it get him? Marcus Aurelius took pains to remind himself that the man died and was buried like the rest of us. The band Iron Maiden has a lyric: “Measure your coffin / does it measure up to your lust?” As it happens, there is a much older poem–from Juvenal writing sometime between around 100 AD—who pointed out that in life, while the world was not big enough for Alexander’s ambition, in death, a coffin was sufficient.
No one is saying you should put all your drive aside, that you should not try to do anything. Clearly, Marcus Aurelius tried to be a good person, tried to be a good ruler, tried to be a good philosopher. But that’s the point: He measured his life not by the size of the monument he hoped they would leave to him (and there are some) but instead by the things he controlled.
In the end, it’s not about the empire you build or the fame that outlives you. It’s about the character you lived by, the person you were, and the impact you make on those who matter most. Aim high, but remember: your legacy isn’t measured in the grandness of your ambition—it’s measured in how you live each day.
1. S&P Sector Performance Before Yesterday…Technology Worst Sector
CNBC
2. Equal Weight S&P Still Below Highs
StockCharts
3. India vs. China Chart Swinging Back to China Favor
India (INDA) had big run of outperformance vs. China (FXI). This chart shows FXI vs. INDA.
StockCharts
4. DJT-Trump Media…It Would Not Take Much to Move Lower than Election Day
StockCharts
5. Argentina Budget Surplus
Barchart
6. Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund Owns 1.5% of All Listed Stocks Globally
Cut to today, and Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is the biggest in the world. It owns 1.5% of all listed stocks globally, making it the world’s largest single investor. Now, following a bumper year for big tech, the fund posted a record-breaking annual profit of ~$222 billionon Wednesday, with the fund’s value topping $1.78 trillion at the time of writing — the equivalent of ~$319,900 for each Norwegian citizen.
Chartr
7. Good Demographics Tailwind….Gen Z and Millennials Earning Above Inflation
John Burns Research
8. U.S. Government Spending as a Share of GDP
Semafor
9. Population Without Electricity
10. Organizing for Urgent
From Seth Godin: There are many ways to prioritize our time and focus, but the easiest and most vivid way is to do the urgent things first.
If we wait until a house plant is sick before we take care of it, though, it’s too late.
Deadlines, loud requests and last-minute interventions are crude forcing functions. They’re inefficient and common.
It’s far more effective to organize for important instead.
We thrive when we do things when we have the most leverage, not when everyone else does. Waiting for trouble means that you’re going to spend your days dealing with trouble.
1. Alibaba releases AI model it claims surpasses DeepSeek-V3
BEIJING (Reuters) – Chinese tech company Alibaba (BABA) on Wednesday released a new version of its Qwen 2.5 artificial intelligence model that it claimed surpassed the highly-acclaimed DeepSeek-V3.
The unusual timing of the Qwen 2.5-Max’s release, on the first day of the Lunar New Year when most Chinese people are off work and with their families, points to the pressure Chinese AI startup DeepSeek’s meteoric rise in the past three weeks has placed on not just overseas rivals, but also its domestic competition.
StockCharts
2. ASML Good Number Last Night
ASML hit $1110 at high…-40% correction before bounce.
StockCharts
3. Semiconductor ETF …Trading Around 200-Day for 6 Months
StockCharts
4. Diamonds vs. Gold
Isabelnet
5. Average Fed Rate by Decade
Semafor
6. Trade Policy Uncertainty…No Shock Here
The Irrelevant Investor
7. Betting Markets 77% Chance of Canadian Tariffs
Torston Slok Apollo-Betting markets are telling us something about consensus expectations for the coming months. We can then begin to discuss the macroeconomic consequences.
Polymarket
8. Strategic Mineral Supply Chain….Not Many American Flags on Map
Barry Ritholtz Big Picture Blog
9. Inventory of New Construction Homes for Sale
Wolf Street
10. How Sleep Helps the Brain Build Learning Maps
KEY POINTS
Sleep hygiene fuels neuroplasticity, and quality sleep consolidates new experiences.
Myelination solidifies learning ensuring neural pathways become faster and more efficient.
The formation of habits is influenced by the intentions that guide our behaviors
Via Psychology Today: Our brains have an extraordinary ability to adapt and learn, a process known as neuroplasticity. From navigating a new city to mastering a new skill, neuroplasticity allows us to reshape our neural connections in response to experiences. But this process doesn’t work in isolation, and one key ingredient it requires is good sleep hygiene.
Sleep plays a pivotal role in refining the brain’s ability to form and solidify cognitive maps—mental representations of the spaces and connections around us. Recent research has revealed how the brain connects discrete memories into a cohesive map during rest, showcasing the critical interplay between neuroplasticity and sleep.
Neuroplasticity involves several stages, starting with the formation of new neural connections, followed by the strengthening of those connections. A critical part of this process is myelination, in which the myelin sheath—a protective coating around nerve fibers—thickens to improve the speed and efficiency of neural signals. This process ensures that the new pathways become permanent and robust, enabling long-term learning and adaptability.
The Power of Cognitive Maps
When you explore a new city, your brain initially remembers specific locations, like a cozy café or a bustling market. These isolated memories are stored in specialized neurons called place cells in the hippocampus. Over time, weaker neurons, known as weakly spatial cells, act as bridges, connecting these memories into a mental map.
During sleep, these connections are refined, allowing your brain to link locations and form a cohesive geography. For example, Sarah, a student navigating her university campus, initially found it overwhelming to locate her classes. However, after a week of exploration and restful sleep, she could effortlessly guide a friend from the library to the cafeteria, thanks to the cognitive map her brain constructed.
Sleep: The Catalyst for Memory and Learning
Research highlights how sleep consolidates learning by replaying experiences in the brain. This replay refines neural connections, making them more precise and efficient. Mohammed, an engineer preparing for an exam, experienced this firsthand. After implementing a strict sleep hygiene routine, he found that reviewing his notes before bed helped him recall critical information effortlessly the next day. Sleep provided his brain with the opportunity to strengthen the pathways needed for retention.
Neuroplasticity isn’t just about remembering spaces; it’s also crucial for forming habits. Jasmine, a professional striving to establish a morning exercise routine, struggled to make it stick. However, when she prioritized consistent sleep, her brain began reinforcing the habit through plastic changes during rest. Over time, waking up for her workout became second nature, demonstrating how sleep transforms intentions into automated behaviors.
The Science of Latent Learning
A recent study from MIT’s Picower Institute showed that sleep allows the brain to encode meaningful maps of space. When mice explored mazes without rewards, their brains initially registered individual locations. But after several days of exploration combined with sleep, weakly spatial cells stitched these discrete memories into a cohesive cognitive map. The role of sleep hygiene is further explored by Leah Irish, et al (2014) in a review of empirical evidence.
The role of latent learning—learning that occurs without immediate rewards—relies heavily on sleep-dependent neuroplasticity. Interestingly, mice deprived of sleep failed to form these maps, highlighting the irreplaceable role of rest in learning. Sleep enables the brain to organize and refine information, creating a foundation for navigation, planning, and problem-solving.
The Role of Myelination in Learning
One of the most fascinating aspects of neuroplasticity is myelination, the process of strengthening neural pathways. As we repeatedly use a new connection—remembering a route, mastering a skill, or building a habit—myelination thickens the protective sheath around neurons, ensuring faster and more reliable communication. This crucial process is impaired by insufficient sleep, leaving new learning fragile and incomplete.
Neuroplasticity in Everyday Life
Neuroplasticity and sleep intersect in countless aspects of daily life, from learning and memory to habit formation and emotional regulation. Here’s how you can leverage this connection:
Prioritize Sleep. Aim for 7-9 hours of quality sleep each night to ensure your brain has time to consolidate and refine new learning.
Engage in Exploration. Allow yourself to explore new environments and ideas without immediate goals or rewards. Trust that your brain will make sense of the experiences during rest.
Repeat and Rest. Repetition strengthens neural pathways, but sleep is what solidifies them. Alternate periods of focused practice with restorative sleep for optimal results
Conclusion
Our brains adapt and learn, which allows us to reshape our neural connections in response to experiences. But this process requires sleep hygiene. The brain’s ability to adapt and grow is a testament to its resilience and complexity. Whether it’s finding your way, mastering your studies, or establishing healthy habits, neuroplasticity and sleep work hand in hand to help us navigate life’s challenges.
Rest isn’t a luxury; it’s a necessity. Sleep fuels the brain’s ability to create, refine, and maintain the connections that define us and what we can achieve. Let’s sleep better to shape mental maps, build habits, and drive our potential to new heights.
2. NVDA in Danger of Close Below 50-Week Moving Average First Time in 2 Years
StockCharts.com
3. NVDA One-Day Snapshot
Charlie Bilello
4. AI Infrastructure Stocks
Although AI stocks are down broadly today, it is the Infrastructure basket that has been hit the hardest. With DeepSeek’s supposed low-cost to build its latest ChatGPT-like offering, it has brought into question the necessity for massive capex spend on chips and datacenters, and our AI Infrastructure sub-basket is down an incredible 8.2% on the day as a result! That compares to only a 1.5% decline in our Implementation sub-basket. As shown below, since the start of our AI Baskets a little over two years ago, this is easily the worst day for our Infrastructure basket relative to our Implementation basket to date, and it isn’t even close.
Bespoke Investment Group
5. CEG Constellation Energy -20% One Day…Still +13% YTD
6. German Stock Market DAX New Highs…Beating QQQ by 10% YTD
StockCharts
7. Earnings Growth by Sector: Financials Lead
Nasdaq
8. SpaceX Share Price
Daily Shot
9. Sports Betting Boom
Chartr
10. Farnam Street on “Leverage”
Leverage is the force multiplier of the world, the principle that allows the small to move the large and the few to influence the many. It’s the idea that a little force, strategically applied, can yield outsize outputs.
At its core, leverage is amplification. Think of a crowbar prying two boards apart or a pulley system hoisting a heavy load. In each case, the applied force is multiplied. But leverage isn’t just useful in physics. Rather, it’s a principle that applies across our lives.
Leverage is often lurking in the background of nonlinear outcomes. Consider the author who took the ideas in their head, put them in a book, and sold millions of copies, or the Wall Street investor who made a single decision that resulted in billions. Or even the CEO who directs the people working for them. All of these examples are leverage in action.
In personal development, leverage is about identifying the key habits, skills, and relationships that will impact your life and work most. It’s about focusing your energy on the critical few rather than the trivial many, about finding the points of maximum leverage where small changes can cascade into massive results.
An example of personal leverage is an employee who learns to use AI to amplify their impact on the organization far beyond their experience or effort. While labor is still a form of leverage, it can often be done with silicon chips. In this sense, the person who can leverage technology can compete in a way never imaginable.
However, leverage is not without its risks and responsibilities. Just as a small action can have an outsized positive impact, so can it have negative consequences. If you borrow too much money against your house and it turns out to be less valuable than assumed or interest rates change, the downside of leverage can quickly wipe you out.
Good ideas taken too far often cause unanticipated consequences. Wielding leverage to maximum effect all the time, as the West Virginia mine owners did, sows the seeds of ongoing unrest that undermines one’s ability to be truly effective. No one wants to feel exploited, and those who are never give their loyalty or their best work.
The key is to use leverage wisely and judiciously by understanding the systems you want to influence and considering the second- and third- order effects of your actions.
Leverage is a tool, not a toy, and like any tool, it requires skill, judgment, and respect.
Nice: Meta’s capex this year will be bigger than the market caps of 69% of the S&P 50.
CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the company is planning to build a truly massive data center to furnish its AI ambitions — and it’s going to cost a pretty penny. He estimates that the social media company’s capital expenditures will rise to $60 billion or $65 billion this year. That’s about 70% higher than analyst estimates for 2024’s full-year capex, which itself was a 40% jump from a year earlier. It’s also more than what Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft spent combined last quarter.
It’s also a bigger number than the market caps of 343 companies in the S&P 500. (Yes, we did the math. Yes, it’s really 69%.)
Sherwood
3. FCF Margins of Big 10 Stocks
From Ben Carlson: JP Morgan’s Michael Cembalest shared the following chart in a recent piece that shows how unique today’s top 10 companies are relative to history:
A Wealth of Common Sense
4. Netflix FCF Did Not Take Off Until 2023
Finchat
5. U.S. Public Companies Foreign Share of Revenues
Citigroup
6. Insider Selling Highest Since 1988
Dave Lutz Jones Trading INSIDER SELLERS – A gauge of insider sentiment that tallies the number of buyers versus sellers shows there were just 98 companies where at least one insider purchased the company’s shares this month through Jan. 22, compared with 447 at which at least one insider sold, according to data compiled by the Washington Service.
Bloomberg
With a little over a week of trading left in January, that buy-sell ratio, at 0.22, is currently on track to be the lowest in data going back to 1988, Bloomberg reported.
