Daily Top Ten – November 7, 2016

1.First 9 Day Sell Off in 36 Years…Now What?

Fear and Greed Index At “Extreme Fear”..Contra Indicator?
Our last Fear and Greed Lows were Market Bottoms in 2015 and 2016.

Read Full Explanation for Fear/Greed index here

Put/call ratio

Generally, a lower reading (~0.6) of the ratio reflects a bullish sentiment among investors as they buy more calls, anticipating an uptrend. Conversely, a higher reading (~1.02) of the ratio indicates a bearish sentiment in the market. However, the ratio is considered to be a contrarian indicator, so that an extreme reading above 1.0 is actually a bullish signal, and vice versa.[2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Put/call_ratio

Put/Call Ratio Spikes Above 1…Short Term Fear?  Contra Indicator.

2.For Technical Traders…Same Story on Short-Term.

S&P Short-Term Oversold with RSI Below 30….Holding 200day Average.


Russell 2000 Small Cap Oversold with RSI 29….Holding 200day.
Volatility Spiked Last Week….Short-Term Overbought with RSI 76

3.Average Election Year Chart.

Chart of the Day

With the 2016 presidential election less than one week away,, today’s chart illustrates how the stock market has performed during the average election year. Since 1900, the first five months of the election year have tended to be choppy. That choppiness was then followed with a rally right up to the November election. One theory to support this election year stock market behavior is that the first five months of choppiness is due in part to the uncertainty of the outcome of the presidential election (the market abhors uncertainty) with the market beginning to rally as the outcome of the election becomes increasingly evident. While stocks tend to rally this close to election day, recent uncertainty as to the outcome has resulted in somewhat of a sell-off.

We are Here….Green Arrow.

4.Bull Market Top Checklist from Strategas….Blow Off Top Checklist is 1 for 9 Right Now.


Some interesting charts and trends that have stood out over the last few months:
Source: Strategas market top checklist
Thanks to Mike Nolan at Janney for Chart.


5. What happens after the S&P 500 falls 9 days in a row?

Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial, said that investors should not fear the slow decline, which he mainly attributes to nervous investors facing an election that offers two drastically different outcomes.

The 6- and 12-month returns following eight or more consecutive days of declines are usually positive and impressive, according to Detrick.

Detrick said he focused on instances where the S&P 500 fell for eight days or longer because, with more than 20 instances, he was able to draw more reliable conclusions about average returns and probabilities. According to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices, there were only 14 instances of 9-day losing streaks since 1928.

Detrick said that since 1931 there have been 22 times when the S&P 500 posted a losing streak of eight days or more. In those instances, the S&P 500 rose over the next 12 months 76% of the time, with an average return of 14%. Stocks also rose in the six-month period after such a streak 74% of the times, returning 8.9% on average.

Read Full Story at Marketwatch.


6.$350B in October M&A Deals.

 Deals over $10B for the Year.

U.S. Needs Big 4th Quarter in Deals to Beat Last Year.
China Much Lower in Dollar Amount, but Big Growth in Deals.

7.Unemployed Over 26 Weeks Back to Long-Term Trend After Hockey Stick Spike….Hourly Earnings Still Below Trend.1415


8.FBI Director Comey Reversed the Polls and the Market Futures.

Clinton’s odds have also recovered this weekend on another betting market, PredictWise, and now stand at 87%.


The latest poll averages, meanwhile, remain modestly in Clinton’s favor, as do the odds of statisticians like FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver.

The polls

In the latest national poll average from RealClearPolitics, Clinton has a 1.8-point lead in the two-way race:



9.The Housing Market Depends on One Chart….Homeownership Rate for Under 35 Years Old.

Homeownership for younger Americans remains on the decline, hitting the lowest level in decades.

Source: Fitch Ratings, @joshdigga

Separately, US mortgage activity for home purchase has moved lower recently. Some think the trend is driven not only by higher home prices and tight mortgage market but also the elections uncertainty.

Millennials are facing challenges…urban rents taking 35-50% of income
Source: Fitch Ratings

10. 10 Uncomfortable Deeds That Will Pay Off Forever

Dr. Travis Bradberry Author of #1 bestselling book, Emotional Intelligence 2.0, and president of TalentSmart, world’s leading provider of emotional intelligence.

T.S. Eliot was clearly onto something when he asked, “If you aren’t in over your head, how do you know how tall you are?” The very act of stepping outside of your comfort zone is critical to your success and well-being.

Our brains are wired such that it’s difficult to take action until we feel at least some stress and discomfort. In fact, performance peaks when we’re well out of our comfort zone. If you’re too comfortable your performance suffers from inaction, and if you move too far outside of your comfort zone you melt down from stress.

Peak performance and discomfort go hand in hand. Stepping outside of your comfort zone makes you better, and it doesn’t have to be something as extreme as climbing Mount Everest. It’s the everyday challenges that push your boundaries the most, none of which require a flight to Nepal. Step out of your comfort zone and embrace these challenges.

  1. Get up early. Unless you’re a morning person, getting up earlier than usual can take you way out of your comfort zone. However, if you get up well before you have to start getting ready for work, it’s worth it. It gives you an opportunity to collect your thoughts and mentally prepare yourself for the day ahead, rather than just dashing from one activity to another. It also gives you the opportunity to eat a good breakfast and exercise, both of which have well-known health benefits. 2. Accomplish an “impossible” goal. Few things compare to the exhilaration of accomplishing something that you didn’t think you were capable of. These achievements fall so far outside of your comfort zone that they seem impossible. Maybe it’s running a marathon or giving a keynote speech at a convention. These accomplishments are worth every bit of suffering you endure to achieve them because once you finally do it, you feel invincible and carry that triumph with you forever.
  2. Meditate. It’s easy to get stuck in your comfort zone when you’re so busy that you don’t slow down enough to really think about what you’re doing and why you’re doing it. Meditation is a great way to break this cycle and also happens to be very good for your brain. It increases brain density in areas responsible for self-control, focus, problem-solving, flexibility, and resilience. Best of all, these changes are lasting.
  3. Focus on one thing at a time. Focusing completely on a single task is a big risk—the risk of failing at something to which you’ve given your all. That’s why it’s so uncomfortable. The alternative—multitasking—is a real productivity killer. Research conducted at Stanford confirms that multitasking is less productive than doing a single thing at a time. The researchers found that people who are regularly bombarded with several streams of electronic information cannot pay attention, recall information, or switch from one job to another as well as those who complete one task at a time. When you try to do two things at once, your brain lacks the capacity to perform both tasks successfully. When you spread yourself too thin and chase after every bright, shiny thing that catches your eye, you’re missing out on an important opportunity for personal growth. 5. Volunteer. It would be great if everyone volunteered for purely altruistic reasons, but we all have demands on our time and have to set priorities. The problem is that after a long workday, volunteering can get pushed down somewhere below watching “epic fail” videos on YouTube. Volunteering is a powerful experience that feels good and expands your network at the same time. Have you ever met anyone who made volunteering a priority and wasn’t changed for the better by the experience? Neither have I. 6. Practice public speaking. You’ve likely heard that the majority of people fear public speaking more than death. In fact, 74 percent of Americans have glossophobia (the fancy word for a fear of public speaking). So, yes, it’s a challenge. It’s also worth it. Whether you’re addressing five people around a table or an audience of five thousand, becoming a better public speaker can be a huge boon to your career. 7. Talk to someone you don’t know. Unless you’re an extreme extrovert—or a politician—talking to new people probably makes you at least somewhat uncomfortable. Do it anyway. Social interaction is good for your mood (even when you don’t like it), expands your network, exposes you to new ideas, and boosts your self-confidence.
  4. Bite your tongue. Sure, it can feel so good to unload on somebody and let them know what you really think, but that good feeling is temporary. What happens the next day, the next week, or the next year? It’s human nature to want to prove that you’re right, but it’s rarely effective. In conflict, unchecked emotion makes you dig your heels in and fight the kind of battle that can leave you and the relationship severely damaged. When you read and respond to your emotions, you’re able to choose your battles wisely and only stand your ground when the time is right. The vast majority of the time, that means biting your tongue.
  5. Say no. The more difficulty that you have saying no, the more likely you are to experience stress, burnout, and even depression. Saying no is indeed a major challenge for many people. No is a powerful word that you should not be afraid to wield. When it’s time to say no, avoid phrases such as I don’t think I can or I’m not certain. Saying no to a new commitment honors your existing commitments and gives you the opportunity to successfully fulfill them. When you learn to say no, you free yourself from unnecessary constraints and free up your time and energy for the important things in life. 10. Quit putting things off. Change is hard. Self-improvement is hard. Scrounging up the guts to go for what you want is hard, and so is the work to make it happen. When things are hard, it’s always easier to decide to tackle them tomorrow. The problem is that tomorrow never comes. Saying you’ll do it tomorrow is just an excuse, and it means that either you don’t really want to do it or that you want the results without the hard work that comes along with it.

Bringing It All Together

Staying in your comfort zone means stagnation. Just as an oyster only makes a pearl when it’s irritated by a grain of sand, no one has ever accomplished anything remarkable when comfortable.

What do you do to move out of your comfort zone? Please share your thoughts in the comments section below, as I learn just as much from you as you do from me.

Follow Dr. Travis Bradberry on Twitter: www.twitter.com/talentsmarteq