Daily Top Ten – February 2, 2017

1.U.S. Dollar Falls Below 50day for the First Time Since October.

UUP Dollar Bull ETF Falls Below 50day.

Emerging Markets Rally After Dollar Fall

www.yahoofinance.com

2.Fed Comments and the Dollar.

As Dollar Dives, Wall Street Reacts To The Fed

by Tyler Durden
Feb 1, 2017 3:08 PM

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The Fed seemed to back away from its three-hikes-plan in today’s FOMC statement, as FF futures and the USD signalled a more dovish stance,

But Wall Street analysts remain confused…
Goldman Sachs:
The FOMC kept policy rates unchanged today and made few revisions to its statement. We see limited implications for the near-term policy outlook, and continue to assign a 35% chance that the committee raises rates as soon as the March 14-15 meeting. Our modal forecast remains three hikes this year, at the June, September and December FOMC meetings.
Faraday Research:

“For traders, the biggest mystery was whether Dr. Yellen and company were leaning toward raising interest rates in March or closer to June, and at the margin, it seems as if the Fed is leaning more toward the latter. Whereas many observers expected that the central bank would upgrade its assessment of the inflation picture, the FOMC reiterated that “market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low” and that “survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.”
BOT-Mitsubishi:

The world has turned upside down with Donald Trump storming into Washington and the Fed does nothing. Fed officials are in the Team Trump (administration) crosshairs, and seem frozen in time like a frightened deer in the headlights. Is this it? This is what they are giving us? Consumer and business sentiment has improved of late. Throw the dog a bone? Are you kidding? Consumer confidence is back to a high normal altitude. Rates are too low for this economy; economic cycle is almost over with expansion turning 9 years old in July, yet Fed policy has barely gotten out of the gate. Fed has left rates near zero for so long that it’s putting the institution at risk from those who want to rewrite its mandate and governance; failure to act may have emboldened its critics in Congress. Would not be so bad if Fed meeting that just ended left door open for a possible March hike. Policy makers think they have all the time in the world; we think time is running out, judging from Congress and new administration.
Deutsche Bank:
Very dovish Fed by composition and the difference is clear in the statement. Gone are George and Mester.. this is a unified dovish Fed.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-01/dollar-dives-wall-street-reacts-fed

3.January Barometer and Election Years.

The S&P 500’s gain of 1.3% in the first five sessions of 2017 and the index’s finishing out the month nearly 2% higher constitute another positive omen.

“Under this scenario, the year is up 84% of the time with an average gain of 14.6% and February [to] December is up 81% of the time with an average rise of 10.1%,” he said.

Meanwhile, Hirsch is especially upbeat with what he refers to as a “January Indicator trifecta” based on the Santa Claus rally, the market’s direction in the first five days, and the January effect.

There is some debate whether the market actually witnessed a Santa Claus rally, the gains that usually materialize around the holidays, in 2016 given the S&P 500’s lackluster performance during that period. However, the large-cap index still managed to notch a 1.8% gain in December.

“The predictive power of the three is considerably greater than any of them alone,” he said in his report. “This is the 28th time since 1949 that all three January indicators have been positive.”

http://www.marketwatch.com/topics/journalists/sue-chang

Sue Chang is a markets reporter based in San Francisco. She previously worked for Dow Jones Newswires in Asia and served as the agency’s bureau chief in Seoul, South Korea. Follow Sue on Twitter at: @SueChangMW.

4.Outsized Bearish ETF Positions in International Markets.

Global Equity ETF Option Sentiment

www.renmac.com
Reach out to Eric for research
EBoucher@renmac.com

5.Sector Leadership Changes

Financials, Tech and Industrials Take Lead.

From Marquette and Associates Year End Letter
http://www.marquetteassociates.com/Portals/0/Client%20Letter/2017%20Market%20Preview_.pdf

6.Torsten Slok on Upside Risks to Inflation.

 

7. Historical S&P500 Returns

February 1, 2017 9:00am by Barry Ritholtz
Interesting slides from Bessemer Trust: The first shows return distributions, the 2nd looks at a few tail risks.

Source: Bessemer Trust

8.YTD Net Flows…Vanguard and Blackrock vs. the Rest.

January 2017 League Table

IssuerNet Flows ($,M)AUM ($,M)% of AUMYTD 2017 Net Flows($,M)
BlackRock14,738.541,015,070.621.45%14,738.54
Vanguard14,596.52636,802.752.29%14,596.52
State Street Global Advisors1,331.88511,270.260.26%1,331.88
Invesco PowerShares1,387.03114,652.611.21%1,387.03
Charles Schwab2,155.9062,897.013.43%2,155.90
First Trust791.6742,681.351.85%791.67
WisdomTree229.8040,773.310.56%229.80
Guggenheim975.9733,119.162.95%975.97
Van Eck1,377.6833,024.204.17%1,377.68
ProShares412.6526,183.051.58%412.65
Deutsche Bank177.0714,024.621.26%177.07
ALPS438.5813,804.863.18%438.58
PIMCO-100.1312,566.85-0.80%-100.13
Northern Trust357.2512,387.912.88%357.25
Direxion-308.4710,941.57-2.82%-308.47
Barclays Capital285.826,784.414.21%285.82
UBS0.466,758.640.01%0.46
Fidelity147.595,422.592.72%147.59
JPMorgan78.535,150.241.52%78.53
Global X293.464,259.826.89%293.46
US Commodity Funds-179.834,257.36-4.22%-179.83
Credit Suisse161.063,328.474.84%161.06
Goldman Sachs130.943,050.384.29%130.94
Exchange Traded Concepts86.632,356.013.68%86.63
ETF Securities18.662,284.840.82%18.66
IndexIQ-39.032,203.04-1.77%-39.03
OppenheimerFunds149.301,741.848.57%149.30
AdvisorShares-6.111,071.72-0.57%-6.11
Millington Securities Inc-3.601,039.49-0.35%-3.60
ETF Managers Group13.141,024.721.28%13.14
Victory Capital Management100.581,015.429.91%100.58
Columbia-0.53964.75-0.05%-0.53
Pacer Financial29.32779.083.76%29.32
Virtus123.18741.5916.61%123.18
John Hancock10.51679.751.55%10.51
CitiGroup92.46551.4416.77%92.46
Franklin ETF Trust5.42550.370.99%5.42
The Principal Financial Group2.04550.060.37%2.04
Highland Capital Management16.91494.853.42%16.91
FQF Trust3.60439.940.82%3.60
Swedish Export Credit-1.59395.01-0.40%-1.59
Cambria11.46348.933.28%11.46
KraneShares0.51265.410.19%0.51
Janus29.50169.7917.37%29.50
Alpha Architect24.67162.3615.19%24.67
Elkhorn25.89158.2616.36%25.89
Teucrium-0.61157.60-0.39%-0.61
Legg Mason9.75146.256.67%9.75
Merk4.74121.413.90%4.74
Arrow Investment Advisors0.00112.700.00%0.00
Hartford4.77111.784.27%4.77
Morgan Stanley0.0096.310.00%0.00
Nuveen3.7991.204.15%3.79
Recon Capital3.4283.604.09%3.42
ARK6.9877.129.06%6.98
US Global Investors-1.4163.96-2.21%-1.41
Montage Managers4.8359.788.08%4.83
Reality Shares7.6554.8213.95%7.65
Academy Funds0.0037.070.00%0.00
Aptus Capital Advisors1.3227.904.74%1.32
AlphaMark Advisors0.0025.230.00%0.00
Validea Capital Management0.0022.270.00%0.00
Diamond Hill0.0017.200.00%0.00
Renaissance Capital0.0014.780.00%0.00
Natixis0.0013.950.00%0.00
Amplify2.6413.5519.52%2.64
ACSI Funds1.3613.5310.04%1.36
Strategy Shares0.0010.910.00%0.00
TrimTabs Asset Management4.0910.3039.71%4.09
OSI ETF Trust7.5910.0975.18%7.59
CSOP-0.678.26-8.14%-0.67
LocalShares-0.008.25-0.01%-0.00
Premise Capital1.296.5019.89%1.29
USCF Advisers0.005.620.00%0.00
AlphaClone-0.991.99-49.77%-0.99
Davis0.000.000.00%0.00
Northern Lights0.000.000.00%0.00
Royal Bank of Canada0.000.000.00%0.00
BMO0.000.000.00%0.00

Disclaimer: All data as of 6 a.m. Eastern time the date the article is published. Data is believed to be accurate; however, transient market data is often subject to subsequent revision and correction by the exchanges.

http://www.etf.com/sections/monthly-etf-flows/etf-monthly-fund-flows-january-2017/page/0/2

 
9.Has Union Membership Bottomed

Food for Thought™: Union membership in the US has been falling, but support for unions has improved.

Source: @Mark_J_Perry, @DeanDijour

Source: @FactTank, @Tmp_Research; Read Article
www.thedailyshot.com

10.10 Tips to Have Your Best Life Ever


“You’re so impatient,” my mother said to me.

It’s true. I want my big projects to be done yesterday. I want results today. I want to be a huge success no later than tomorrow. I’m sure you can relate on some level — after all, we’re both high-achievers and we demand extraordinary results.

That’s what separates us from everyone else. But sometimes we need a step-by-step guide to get us from this level to the next.

That’s why I’ve put together the top 10 tips to use right now so that you can start living your best life today.

No more waiting. No more being patient and waiting for the payoff. This list gets you fast results. It’ll help you achieve the extraordinary results you expect in every area of life.

#10 – Get Up 15 Minutes Earlier

First, let me be blunt. You need to stop trying to be part of this silly “5 a.m. Club” that you might have heard about online. It’s a bad idea for you, for me, and for 95% of the people in the world. Getting up at five o’clock in the morning is not mandatory.

You see, it doesn’t matter what hour you GET up, all that matters is what you do with the hours that you ARE up!

All you need to do in order to be more successful is to give yourself 15 magical minutes in the morning and you can make HUGE progress in life. If you’re getting up at 7 a.m. right now, you don’t have to sacrifice sleep and sanity to get up at 5 a.m. tomorrow. All you need to do is start getting up at 6:45 a.m. That’s reasonable, manageable, and effective. (I’ll explain below how to use these extra 15 minutes each day…).

#9 – Get Accountability

Every gold medal winner at the Olympics I attended in Rio this summer had a coach. Every Fortune 500 CEO has a mentor. You’re no different.

You must get someone to hold you accountable for your actions in life. This person, preferably a coach or a mentor, must hold you to a high standard and cannot accept any excuses from you.

Yes, this might lead to a few uncomfortable conversations, but it is the BEST thing for you. Accountability makes you Play Up a Level in Life so that you can reach your peak potential and achieve the extraordinary results you deserve.

#8 – Give Gratitude

Success is not all about sacrifice and grinding. It’s often soft skills that lead to the big breakthroughs. One of these techniques is giving gratitude.

Using my Gratitude Journal has made me happier. It reminds me of the easy life I live. I’m grateful I no longer have to dig ditches in the hot sun (like I did in 1992 for $4.15 an hour!). I’m grateful for my warm bed during the cold Canadian winters on my farm, for clean water, healthy food, and fresh air in Colorado at the ETR offices, and for safe walking paths in both places. Essentially I have everything that my dog, Bally, enjoys in his life. No wonder he’s so happy all the time!

#7 – Do a Brain Dump

This success tip is perfect for busy parents, and it takes just two minutes. Do this every day before you leave work or about an hour before you go to bed.

Take out the scripting pad from your Perfect Day Formula kit and write down all of the mad thoughts running through your head. Write down what you have to pick up on the way home, what you want to do with the kids at night, who you have to call, and who you need to email. Next, outline a few action steps for your number one priority for the next morning.

Now that all of those thoughts are out of your head, set the paper aside and go be present with your family. You’ll deal with that list later.

# 6 – Get Outside (Preferably With a Dog)

I’m serious. Having a dog has reduced my stress, improved my health, allowed me to spend more time in nature (where I’m more creative), helped me laugh five times more often every day, and made me appreciate the little things in life.

No time for a dog? At least take time for yourself. When you get outside and go for a short walk in the sunshine, you’ll find yourself more creative than usual. Walking helps solve the problems that plague you.

It’s no coincidence that Newton, Edison, Beethoven, Dickens, and Darwin all spent time out in nature, walking and thinking. It’s because they knew the answers were out there, and were not to be found sitting at their desk.

#5 – Make Friends, Influence People, and Grow Rich

Surely you’ve read two of the greatest self-help books of all time: Think and Grow Rich and How to Win Friends and Influence People (by Napoleon Hill and Dale Carnegie, respectively). If you haven’t, or if you’ve forgotten the big lessons, read them (again). You’ll realize that there is great power in the people with whom we associate.

Jim Rohn, the legendary personal development guru, once said, “You are the average of the five people you spend the most time with.”

He’s right. It’s even been proven in research from Harvard University. If you want to be successful, if you want to be rich, if you want to be fit and healthy, then you must associate with people who are already achieving the extraordinary results that you expect from life.

“But Craig,” you might be thinking, “My family holds me back. My friends don’t want to be successful. And the people at work sabotage me at every turn.”

That’s okay. There is a solution. Research also shows that online social support works just as well as real-world social support for helping you achieve your big goals and dreams. That’s why we added a private online coaching and support group for people that invest in my life’s work, The Perfect Day Formula.

#4 – Make a NOT To-Do List

What’s that one big distraction that is holding you back in life? Is it email addiction? Are you drinking too much wine each night? Are you wasting time gossiping at work? Is it watching too many television shows before bed? Hitting the snooze button in the morning?

To have a big breakthrough in your productivity and to achieve extraordinary results, you have to overcome the obstacles holding you back. Identify your biggest distraction right now and begin to build a NOT to-do list that protects you from this temptation.

As Warren Buffett and Steve Jobs have famously said, what you do NOT do is often the most important factor in your success. Eliminating the negative is essential so that you can focus on doing the right things.

#3 – 15 Minutes of Focus on Your #1 Priority

Now it’s time to reveal what you must do with your 15 magical minutes in the morning. Each day you need to wake up 15 minutes earlier than you are now. When you do, sneak down to your kitchen table. Sit with pen and paper, no electronics, and focus on your number one priority in life. Doing this for 15 minutes, six days per week, gives you 72 hours in a year of clear, uninterrupted thinking on your most pressing problem or your greatest opportunity. This is the secret to how you’ll make big breakthroughs in life.

#2 – Set Deadlines

Putting hard deadlines on your goals and dreams helps in three ways. First, it spurs you to start taking action and overcome the initial inertia. Second, it keeps you going through tough times because you know the deadline is coming soon and there is light at the end of the tunnel. And third, as you get closer and closer to the finish line, you start moving faster and faster — and getting more and more extraordinary results.

It doesn’t matter what timeline you set for your goal (21 days, 30 days, or 90 days), having this strict deadline with real consequences keeps you on track to achieve big breakthroughs faster than ever.

#1 – Create a VISION for Your Life

You must know exactly what you want. When you do, the path to success becomes clear. Building a clear blueprint for my career allowed me to achieve EXACTLY what I wanted in 2011 where I purchased EarlyToRise.com, the business of my dreams.

Having a clear and concise roadmap for your life makes the right actions obvious — and even automatic. That’s why you must go through the Vision Creation guidebook in The Perfect Day Formula kit. Using the kit is like having me coach you through the exact steps for your success (just like I do for my $25,000 coaching clients that travel to see me in Denver).

The Perfect Day Formula kit is the ULTIMATE guide to success in this busy age. And with these 10 steps for success in place, you can achieve the extraordinary results you expect and get exactly what you want in life, just like I did.

http://www.earlytorise.com/10-tips-best-life-ever/