TOPLEY’S TOP 10 April 15 2024

1. S&P Has Traded Above 50-Day Moving Average Since November 2023

2. Probability of Fed Rate Hike in June

The United States: The probability of a Fed rate cut in June has collapsed. Will we see any rate reductions at all this summer?

Source: The Daily Shot

3. Last 3 Hot CPI Reports Did Not Derail the Market

Fundstrat – Tom Lee


4. Fed Funds vs. QQQ Diversion

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright This year, stock prices and projected Fed rates are both rising
Throughout last year, when Fed rates expectations went down, stocks went up (and vice versa). That makes sense, because higher rates add expenses to companies, and make bonds more attractive to investors, meaning stocks have to perform better in the future too (and a lower starting price makes that possible).  But a strange thing has been happening to stocks and rates this year… That relationship has reversed! As the chart below shows, stocks and expected Fed rates (inverted) have BOTH been rising.

5. Large Cap Funds See Outflows


6. JPM Biggest One-Day Selloff Since 2001

JPM Closed Below 50-Day

7. The U.S. Produces More Oil that Russia and Saudin Arabia

Torsten Slok, Ph.D.-Chief Economist, Partner

The US now produces more oil than Saudia Arabia and Russia, see chart below.

8. Record High International Travel

Torston Slok Apollo Group

9. Election Betting Line

10. How to Be Wise

Psychology Today

Wisdom’s 7 Branches Within the Tree of Philosophy (TOP) Susan Krauss Whitbourne PhD, ABPP

Philosophy becomes a useful way to address the qualities of wisdom because, as Sternberg maintains, its main branches each correspond to important traditions in understanding what’s wise and what’s not. Below is a brief summary of each, along with examples of its positive and negative possibilities:

Epistemology: Knowing what you know and what you don’t know. The wise person may seem to be all-knowing, but this branch of philosophy suggests it’s as important to make room for the possibility that you don’t. For example, it’s wise to confess to your own limitations but unwise to fake knowing something you don’t (or can never know). When you make an “educated guess,” be sure not to claim you’re 100% sure.

Ontology: Keep the good of others at the forefront of your decisions. The wise person tries to mend fences, but the unwise person tries to build them.

Ethics: Have a clear sense of right and wrong and stick to it. To be wise means that you work hard to follow through on decisions that will further a worthwhile cause. Unwise people will do everything in their power to get ahead, regardless of the consequences to others.

Logic: Be able to make decisions based on analytical judgments, not gut feelings. This could be as simple as trying to figure out why your cellphone won’t charge properly. Stabbing away at it by plugging the cord into the outlet will not get to the root of the problem, as you will need to go through a set of more rational steps.

Aesthetics: Promote harmony and grace in the world. A wise person pursues beauty for its own sake, such as enjoying a calm and peaceful shoreline at sunset. Lack of aesthetic wisdom becomes toxic, such as when people make decisions that lead to outrage (such as designing an ugly building) or cause a lack of harmony in the world (such as a dictator invading another country).

Hermeneutics: Evaluating situations based on facts and not wishes. Wise people might wish that their families got along better but be resigned to the situation as it is. The unwise person will continue to hope and dream that, somehow, their families will miraculously decide to get along.

Axiology: Use logic to make decisions. To be wise means that you rely on facts determined through analyses of evidence (which could also mean they can be disconfirmed). Unwise people let their beliefs, religious or otherwise, determine what they believe to be true.

If you were keeping score of your own wise qualities, what stuck out as your greatest strengths? Are there times when you hope for the best or when you discard an idea because you didn’t like where it came from? As you think about the people you might approach for advice, whose word are you more likely to trust?