Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 April 10, 2025

1. Sector Return Grid

MarketWatch


2. Hedge Against Inflation? Stock Dividends

Axios


3. 2008 GFC & 2020 Covid Only Periods with Similar Intra-Day Volatility

In yesterday’s session, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) traded in an incredible intraday range of 10.8%. Even crazier is that on Tuesday, the intraday range was 7.3% while Monday’s range was 8.6%!  Since SPY was launched in 1993, the last three days represent just the sixth time that the ETF has had an intraday range of more than 5% for three or more days. The only periods with as many or more consecutive intraday ranges of at least 5% were in the fourth quarter of 2008 (four separate occurrences) and March 2020. These levels of sustained volatility are truly historic.

Bespoke


4. Every Pundit on Planet Arguing Whether Tariffs are Inflationary or Deflationary (demand destruction); CPI Today

CNBC


5. The Rent Lag in CPI Number

Charlie Bilello


6. 300m Chinese Moved to Middle Class Selling to U.S.

Semafor


7. Solar is Adding More Generation than Any Energy Sources

Sherwood News


8. TAN Solar ETF Straight Down…All-Time High $104 2021…$28 Last

StockCharts


9.  American Poll on Illegal Immigrants

Food for Thought: Americans’ views on the deportation of immigrants living in the country illegally

The Daily Shot Brief


10. For Your Weekend Read: NVDA Stock Fell -90% Twice

The New King of Tech-How Jensen Huang built Nvidia into a nearly $3 trillion business’

Via The Atlantic: Another day, another new AI large language model that’s supposedly better than all previous ones. When I began writing this story, Elon Musk’s xAI had just released Grok 3, which the company says performs better than its competitors against a wide range of benchmarks. As I was revising the article, Anthropic released Claude 3.7 Sonnet, which it says outperforms Grok 3. And by the time you read this, who knows? Maybe an entirely new LLM will have appeared. In January, after all, the AI world was temporarily rocked by the release of a low-cost, high-performance LLM from China called DeepSeek-R1. A month later, people were already wondering when DeepSeek-R2 would come out.

The competition among LLMs may be hard to keep track of, but for Nvidia, the company that designs the computer chips—or graphics-processing units (GPUs)—that many of these large language models have been trained on, it’s also enormously lucrative. Nvidia, which, as of this writing, is the third-most-valuable company in the world (after Apple and Microsoft), was started three decades ago by engineers who wanted to make graphics cards for gamers. How it evolved into the company that is providing almost all the picks and shovels for the AI gold rush is the story at the core of Stephen Witt’s The Thinking Machine. Framed as a biography of Jensen Huang, the only CEO Nvidia has ever had, the book is also something more interesting and revealing: a window onto the intellectual, cultural, and economic ecosystem that has led to the emergence of superpowerful AI.

That ecosystem’s center, of course, is Silicon Valley, where Huang has spent most of his adult life. He was born in Taiwan, the son of a chemical engineer and a teacher. The family moved to Thailand when he was 5, and a few years later, his parents sent him and his older brother to the United States to escape political unrest. Eventually, his parents relocated to the U.S. as well, and Huang grew up in the suburbs of Portland, Oregon. In the early 1980s, after majoring in electrical engineering at Oregon State (which at the time didn’t offer a computer-science major), he got a job at Advanced Micro Devices. The company—then the poor cousin of the chip giant Intel—was headquartered in Sunnyvale, California, near US 101, the highway that runs from San Jose to Stanford. Since then, Huang’s career has unfolded within a five-mile radius of that office.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 April 08, 2025

1. Russell 1000 Average Stock -30% from 52-Week High

Bespoke


2. Small Cap Healthcare Stocks Officially Flat for 7 Years

Kevin Gordon


3. The Biotech Bear Market in Small Cap…Disappearing IPO Market

Barron’s


4. High Yield Euro Bonds Spreads Widening

Bloomberg


5. Ethereum -55% YTD…Almost Back to 2023 Levels

StockCharts


6. AAPL -31% from Highs…Right on 200-Week Moving Average Long Term Chart

StockCharts


7. Amazon -32% High to Low

StockCharts


8. Jackson Hole Real Estate…$2m to $10m in 15 Years

WSJ


9.  China’s Humanoid Robot Market

WSJ


10. Ten Million Less Viewers without Caitlin Clark

March Madness hit badly in Caitlin Clark’s absence as women’s Final Four TV ratings revealed.

Via MSN: UConn’s Final Four win over UCLA averaged 4.1 million viewers on Friday, which was a drop of over 10 million viewers compared to last season when the Huskies faced Iowa and Caitlin Clark.

When the Hawkeyes advanced to their second consecutive national championship game with a dramatic 71-69 win over UConn, it drew a record 14.2 million viewers. While the Huskies’ win over the Bruins in 2025 was the fifth-most watched women’s college basketball game ever on ESPN, the absence of Clark was felt.

“I feel like we’re just scratching the surface. If you would have told people this is where the WNBA is, five years ago … people probably wouldn’t have believed you, because they never thought that was possible.

“They never thought people would buy tickets; they never thought we’d play on ABC, never thought we’d be on ESPN. They never thought there could be sold out arenas or little kids wanting to wear WNBA jerseys.”

MSN

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 April 07, 2025

1. S&P Biggest 2 Day Decline Since 1950—What Does History Say?

Charlie Bilello


2. Forward P/E Correcting Fast…Ex-Mag 7 Closer to 15

Bloomberg


3. Last Week Higher Dollar Amount was Lost than 2008 Crisis

StockCharts


4. S&P 50day Still Above 200day…Break Today?

StockCharts


5. Crude Oil Fell -13.6% in 2 Days, THU and FRI

StockCharts


6. Ten Year Treasury Moved Back Above 4% Last Night

CNBC


7. China Tariffs…U.S. Does Not Export Much to China

Markets are freaking out about China retaliating hard against the United States, with a 34% tariff on all US goods. But in economic terms, this isn’t such a big deal: China barely imports from the US in the first place.

Chartbook


8. The Top in Globalization was in Motion

StockCharts


9. Another Contra Indicator?

Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout.

Summary:

  • Some hedge funds offload all stocks as selloff widens
  • Prime brokers say leverage falling, more selling coming
  • Sales triggered by margin calls rise in South Korea

Via Reuters: Some hedge funds say they are offloading all or most of their holdings of stocks as U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war wipes out trillions of dollars of market value and forces them to curtail trading using borrowed cash.

In the three trading days following Trump’s announcement of broad reciprocal tariffs on almost all countries, stock markets across the world have plummeted, and bonds have become both a haven and a bet on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, turning on their head market assumptions before Trump took office.

The selloff on Wall Street has been vicious as investors that bet on U.S. exceptionalism and economic might stampede out of its markets.

The benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX), opens new tab fell 10.5% over two days and lost about $5 trillion in market value. China’s CSI300 (.CSI300), opens new tab blue-chip index fell more than 5% on Monday, while the pan-European STOXX index (.STOXX), opens new tab is down nearly 12% from its March 3 all-time closing high and in correction territory.

William Xin, chairman of hedge fund Spring Mountain Pu Jiang Investment Management based in Shanghai, said he had liquidated all of his stock positions as the current geopolitical landscape is messy, and the risk of a global recession is rising.


10. Atomic Habits Chart

James Clear

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 April 04, 2025

1. New Effective Tariff Rate

Cresset Capital


2. CEOs Mention Tariffs 1,200 Times in March

Bloomberg


3. SPLV Low Volatility ETF +6% YTD…A Tick Away from New Highs

StockCharts


4. Airline ETF -20% YTD…Some holdings -40% from Highs. JETS Never Made It Above 2021 Highs

StockCharts


5. Sector ETF Performance for Q1 2025

Nasdaq


6. AAPL Loses $275B Market Cap One Day

Barchart


7. Blackstone -33% From Highs But Still Not Back to Summer 2024 Levels

StockCharts


8. Small Cap Stocks -20%…Hit Jan. 2024 Levels

StockCharts


9.  Boomers Made Up Almost Half Home Buyers

Sherwood


10. Career Truths

Infographic Insights

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 April 03, 2025

1. S&P 493 Flat for the Year

The Market Ear


2. Q1 2025: Everything Positive Except U.S. Stocks

Nasdaq


3. China Top 25 Export Countries

StockCharts


4. UNG Natural Gas ETF +25% YTD…Still Below 2024 Levels

StockCharts


5. Crude Oil -7.5% Pre-Market on Tariffs

CNBC


6. CAVA: -56% High-to-Low Correction

StockCharts


7. EuroZone Unemployment Rate Dropping

The unemployment rate hit a new low in February.

The Daily Shot


8. Working Class/Middle Class More Concerned About Hourly Wages

Chart from the Fed shows the Top 1% of U.S. earners now have more wealth than the entire middle class.

Zach Goldberg Jefferies


9.  Mexico Border Crossings

Semafor


10. Mark Cuban’s Advice to His Kids on How to Be Successful Is 2 Simple Words

The research-backed advice doesn’t just applies to his kids, but to you too.

Via IncAs a serial entrepreneur, former NBA team owner, long time Shark Tank co-star, and multibillionaire, Mark Cuban has certainly seen up close what it takes to make it big in life. When it comes to his three children, what advice does he give them on how to be successful?

You might think a guy with so much insider knowledge might point his kids to a particular professional niche or industry sector. But on a fun, free-wheeling recent episode of podcast Your Mom’s House, Cuban explained he doesn’t push his kids to take any particular path. Instead, his best advice to help them be successful is all of two words long: “Be curious.”

Mark Cuban’s top success advice to his kids.

The conversation kicks off when podcast co-host Robert Smith asks a perceptive and interesting question: When you’re super successful in a very public way like Cuban, how do you help your kids have their own identities and success beyond the shadow of their famous parent?

“It’s hard,” Cuban responds before walking through his thinking on setting his three teenage and young adult kids up for success and sanity. “You try to just let them be themselves. I try to not say you’ve got to go in this direction or that direction.”

Whether or not a young adult has wealthy or well-known parents, Cuban believes it’s OK for them to not know what they want to be when they grow up at first. That’s especially true these days when the world is changing so fast.

So if Cuban isn’t pushing a particular professional path, what is he pushing? Curiosity.

“Just be curious,” he advises his kids. “That’s what I try to get them to do.”

Research agrees with Cuban about the value of curiosity.

Cuban wants his kids to be continually learning and to view knowledge as strength to stockpile. He believes the route to lifelong learning and growth is curiosity. Turns out a ton of science agrees with him.

Curiosity, studies show, is one of the best predictors of how well a particular student will do in school, no matter what their IQ might be. The benefits of curiosity extend well beyond graduation. Other research links curiosity with increased memory, patience, empathy, creativity, and engagement.

Given all of those are traits that help people get ahead professionally, it stands to reason that more curious kids would tend to become more successful adults. And indeed studies show a link between higher curiosity, work, and better job performance.

That suggests Cuban’s efforts to inculcate curiosity in his kids will help them be successful in life independent of their billionaire dad. There is also evidence that focusing on curiosity will help his kids grow up to be happier too.

“Research has shown curiosity to be associated with higher levels of positive emotions, lower levels of anxiety, more satisfaction with life, and greater psychological well-being,” reports UC Berkeley’s Greater Good Science Center. “Of course, it may be, at least partially, that people who are already happier tend to be more curious, but since novelty makes us feel good, it seems likely that it goes the other direction as well.”

Nudge your kids to be more curious like Mark Cuban.

All of which suggests that Cuban is very much on to something in wanting his kids to be curious and hungry for learning. But how do you accomplish that?

Cuban doesn’t say so, but he’s clearly a great model of someone who is always exploring new possibilities and learning new things. You don’t have to be a billionaire to model curiosity to your kids. Explore the world and discuss and investigate new topics with your kids.

Actively talking up the benefits of curiosity as Cuban does can help too, according to science. According to a report from the BBC, Rachit Dubey, a cognitive scientist at Princeton University, found that reminding people of the usefulness of new knowledge can boost their curiosity when it’s lagging. Research suggests actively brainstorming questions you want answers to is another good way to become more curious.

Takeaways for entrepreneurs about curiosity.

If you’re a parent, consider being like Cuban and pushing your kids less toward a particular career path and more toward curiosity. You’ll probably help them get further and be happier if you value novelty and learning over certainty and consistency.

Second, curiosity is great for you too. Most of the science that shows curiosity is great for kids also applies to adults. Perhaps, you should also follow the tips above to nudge yourself toward greater curiosity.

Finally, curiosity helps people do better at work. As a business leader, is there anything you can do to nurture and support your team’s natural curiosity?

“Managers might consider giving their employees a little more independence … with various studies showing that a sense of autonomy increases curiosity,” the same BBC article suggests. “Where relevant, employers might also encourage workers to look beyond the narrow confines of their primary expertise.”

As Mark Cuban seems to have figured out, success usually isn’t about finding your lane early and sticking to it. It’s about being curious and continuously learning. That applies to his kids, but it applies to you too.