Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 22, 2025

1. Top 10 Largest Companies S&P at 30x P/E

Barrons- Tech’s strength has people talking about bubbles once again—and not without evidence. The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 trade for close to 30 times 12-month forward earnings, notes Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, above the 25 times the top 10 fetched during the dot-com bubble. “The difference between the IT bubble in the 1990s and the AI bubble today is that the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 today are more overvalued than they were in the 1990s,” he writes

The bill also allows companies to expense all of their domestic R&D costs in the year they do the spending rather than amortizing it over a five-year period. That means companies get all of the tax benefit at one time, lowering their taxable income and improving cash flow, Pinder says—and they also get to apply the new rule to spending from 2022 to 2024.

And who does most of that spending? The Magnificent Seven stocks, which account for 47% of R&D by S&P 500 companies. “For them, the windfall should be somewhat immediate and provide more cash to reinvest in growth, or return to shareholders,” Pinder writes.  https://www.barrons.com/articles/donald-trump-ai-bubble-best-friend-soaring-bda738a8?mod=past_editions

Mega Cap Stock ETF New Highs

www.stockcharts.com


2. Goldman Non-Profit Tech Basket of Stocks Not Yet Back to 2021 Levels.

https://x.com/KevRGordon


3. 2010-2015 Big Returns But Below 1980’s and 90’s

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/07/the-double-digit-decades/


4. Palantir Expensive Beyond Rest of S&P Highfliers …This is Price to Sales Not  P/E

https://sherwood.news/markets/palantirs-valuation-just-how-insane-is-it/?utm_source=chartr&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=chartr_20250720


5. Crypto Economy Crossed $4 Trillion in Market Cap

https://www.howardlindzon.com/c/about


6. Bitcoin is 63% of Total Crypto Market Value.

On Monday morning, bitcoin briefly flew past a record $123,000 price point, before climbing down a little later in the week, as a handful of meme coins and altcoins started to steal the show. However, when it comes to the bigger (often messier) crypto picture, Bitcoin is still very much the main focus — accounting for a whopping 63% of the total crypto market’s value.

Unlike the early days, when 10,000 bitcoin would pick you up a couple of large pizzas if you were lucky, the asset has become seriously big — and somewhat seriously stable — as business, and institutional investors started taking notes in a major way.

Indeed, even bitcoin’s latest record surge is less to do with individuals looking to park their cash away from the governing and corporate powers that prop up the centralized financial system, and more closely related to some of those entities themselves getting into BTC. 

www.chartr.com


7. IBIT Bitcoin ETF 85% of Assets vs. GLD Gold ETF

https://x.com/KoyfinCharts


8. Open AI Lost 28% of Leadership Staff…Pro Sports Recruiting in AI

https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/openai-loses-key-talent-analysis?sourceType=NEWSLETTER


9. YouTube Stand Alone Valuation $720 Billion

Analyst Laura Martin of Needham estimates that YouTube revenue was $58 billion in 2024, and will be $70 billion in 2025, with $30 billion of that coming from subscriptions. She projects that a stand-alone YouTube would have a market capitalization of $720 billion. Netflix has a market cap of $556 billion. Barrons By Adam Levine

https://www.barrons.com/articles/netflix-earnings-alphabet-youtube-658104fa?mod=past_editions


10. Farnam Street Blog Knowledge Project

The Knowledge Project [Outliers]

Charlie Munger once asked me: ‘How can someone give away fifty percent of profits and make billions more than if he’d kept it all?’ Before I could answer, he told me about Les Schwab, a tire shop owner who understood incentives better than almost anyone. 

What Schwab discovered will change how you think about business and life. 

Here are a few of his lessons: 

1. Win Win, The Math of Generosity: Les discovered that splitting profits 50/50 with store managers didn’t cut his wealth in half, it multiplied it. His reasoning was pure math: “If I share half the profits, I still have half. And if Frank makes more money, he’ll work harder to make the store successful. If the store is more successful, my half is worth more than my whole used to be.” You get rich by making others rich. 

2. All-In or All-Out: At 34, Les sold his house, borrowed against his life insurance, and scraped together $11,000 to buy a failing tire shop with no running water. He’d never changed a tire. His competitors had decades of experience. But Les had something they didn’t: no backup plan. That total commitment forced him to figure it out. One year later, he’d quintupled revenue. Half-measures guarantee half-results. 

3. High Agency: Everything is your job. Les bought his first tire shop having never fixed a flat in his life. On day one, a customer needs tires mounted. Les fumbles with hand tools on the cold concrete, making a complete mess until his employee arrives. He insisted on being taught, so the situation never repeated. Sometimes, the only qualification you need is the willingness to figure it out. 

4. Go Positive, Go First: Les instituted free flat repairs for anyone, customer or not. Competitors called him crazy. Why fix flats for people who bought tires elsewhere? But Les understood reciprocity: humans are biologically wired to return favors, even those that are unearned. Those free repairs created a loop, doing more marketing than marketing could ever do. Most businesses wait for the transaction before the service. Consistently going positive and going first is the most powerful force in the universe. 

5. Dark Hours: Every morning before dawn, teenage Les ran his paper route. Not biked, ran. For two months, he sprinted through dark streets on foot, saving enough to buy a bicycle. While his classmates slept, he earned. By senior year, Les owned all nine routes in town. When your competition sleeps, you can build your lead.

https://fs.blog/about/

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 21, 2025

1. International Investors Will Stop Buying U.S. Treasuries—Not so much. Half the BRICS Members Didn’t Even Show Up for Recent Meeting.

Foreign capital flows. “Yesterday the US Treasury reported the largest inflow of foreign capital to that market (net purchases) since 2022, obliterating the narrative that foreign investors are fleeing Treasuries (or US equities) due to political risks.”

@bespokeinvest


2. Hedge Funds and Institutional Investors Underweight Mega-Cap Tech on This Rally.

https://www.spilledcoffee.co/p/investing-update-any-fuel-left-in?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F868a9e64-b166-48f1-89b0-d526c85edc7d_2186x1394.heic&open=false


3. ”Down Round IPO” Means Public Market Price is Below Private Market Peak….They are the New Normal.

https://pitchbook.com


4. Equal Weight S&P Hits All-Time Highs…Non-Tech Sectors Joining.


5. Utility Index Hits New-Highs.

www.stockcharts.com


6. Vanguard Internation REIT Fund New Highs

www.stockcharts.com


7. A Blip Higher in Goods Inflation


8. Fed Has Been Committed to Controlling Inflation Since 1970s


9. ICE Arrests Per Day Increasing But  Still Well Short of 2019 Levels.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/ericfinnigan1


10. Americans Believe They Will Be Rich-Prof G Blog.

https://www.profgalloway.com

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 18, 2025

1. August/September Seasonality

Dave Lutz Jones Trading Over the last 35 years, August and September are the worst performing months of the year. Average performance has been mixed in August with DJIA and S&P 500 recording losses of 0.9% and 0.6% respectively while NASDAQ has eked out a meager 0.1% gain. September has been red across the board for DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ – “Our July seasonal pattern chart shows this August-September market retreat actually tends to begin around mid-July” noted AlmanacTrader


2. All-Time Highs Not Bearish

SPX vs. ATHs. “Since 1990, the S&P 500 was higher a year after an all-time high 82.4% of the time and up a median return of a very impressive 13.5%.”

Ryan Detrick – Carson Group


3. Semiconductor Weight in S&P

https://www.topdowncharts.com


4. Small Cap Stocks Get in Green for 2025 …Still Below Highs.

www.stockcharts.com


5. FXI China Large Cap New Highs…+25% YTD

www.stockcharts.com


6. China Small Caps New Highs…+36% YTD

www.stockcharts.com


7. PKW Stock Buyback ETF Hits New Highs.

www.stockcharts.com


8. Multinationals Moving Out of China.


9. Where Inflation Hits

www.chartr.com


10. Admins vs. Doctors in Modern U.S.

https://x.com/robertlufkinmd/status/1945921745027740117

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 16, 2025

1. Small Caps About to Set Not So Good Record.

https://x.com/JC_ParetsX/status/1945245653061312768


2. Retail is Buying Individual Stocks at Highest Level Since 2018

https://x.com/HayekAndKeynes


3. Retail Buying and Institutions Selling.

BofA noted, The cumulative gap between institutional selling and retail buying in the YTD is the largest of any comparable YTD period in our data history since ‘08 and the 2nd largest (after 2017) when normalized by market cap

Zach Goldberg Jefferies


4. Margins Expanding Again

https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/the-compound-and-friends-reasons-to-remain-overweight-4903


5. Inheritance as a % of National Output.

For these lucky people, the experience of the Vanderbilts and their contemporaries offers a cautionary tale. At the turn of the 20th century, America’s census recorded about 4,000 millionaires, note Victor Haghani and James White, two wealth managers, in their book, The Missing Billionaires. Suppose a quarter of them had at least $5m (the richest had hundreds) and had invested it in America’s stockmarket. Had they then procreated at the average rate, paid their taxes and spent 2% of their capital each year, their descendants today would include nearly 16,000 old-money billionaires. In reality, it is a struggle to find a single one who traces their fortune back to the first Gilded Age.

https://elmwealth.com/how-to-invest-your-inheritance/


6. ETHE Flows Largest Since ETF Launch.

ETH ETF flows. “US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded their largest weekly net inflows since launch – 225,857 ETH – extending a multi-week trend of growing institutional demand.”

@glassnode


7. Venture Capital Summary.

https://www.google.com/search?q=pitchbook+number+of+funds+not+making+investment+in+one+year+up+50%25&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCTEzMjUyajBqN6gCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&udm=50&fbs=AIIjpHxU7SXXniUZfeShr2fp4giZrjP_Cx0LI1Ytb_FGcOviEiaSXTsdMUiuBeEuSNqG6MGxAgmTPrUk32Qw7HMCrZRR7g-RRFFbn0y_7nZVO61ZFxzc_5MXkaRlPgxU0-Wniyt7RV4l2QeyYrFlqP7M4tSV6JXySg7QxEFS07hCETjiEyKPi0Z5PzJFVvKo7GfDI4n1OMg2IatPZ6sjfEegRQ3pzezuEQ&ved=2ahUKEwiMlpLQ8b-OAxVWFVkFHeOnBGQQ0NsOegQIAxAA&aep=10&ntc=1


8. Over 50% of American are in Top 10% of Earners at Some Point in Life.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/ben-carlson-cfa-97661244


9. Condo Prices Dropping.

@Charlie Bilello

Condo prices just posted their 2nd‑biggest YoY drop on record: –2.2% in May.

Why the slump?

80% more condo sellers than buyers

Surging HOA fees, insurance costs & special assessments

Financing hurdles


10. On Track for Lowest Murder Rate in History.

The US is on course for the lowest murder rate in its history this year. After years of decline, crime spiked in 2020 and 2021, with murders reaching their highest since the mid-1990s. But they have since dropped precipitously, and continue to do so: The Real-Time Crime Index recorded 2,095 homicides in January to April, the most recent data available, down 20% from the same period last year. The data analyst Jeff Asher wrote in May that the figures were set to be lower than 2014’s murder rate record of 4.45 per 100,000, and that increased investment in local communities was likely a factor. Violent and property crime are both also close to record low levels, Asher wrote.

www.semafor.com

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 15, 2025

1. Vanguard #1 Holder of MSTR?

Vanguard owns more than 20 million shares, nearly 8%, of all of Strategy’s (MSTR) outstanding Class A common stock, and likely surpassed Capital Group Cos. for the no. 1 spot sometime in the fourth quarter, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on regulatory filings. The dozens of Vanguard mutual funds and ETFs that hold the stakes track everything from small- and mid-cap benchmarks to momentum, value and growth gauges, among o “God has a sense of humor,” said Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence and author of The Bogle Effect. “Vanguard chose this life. When you have an index fund, you have to own all the stocks, for better or worse, and that includes stocks that you may not like or approve of personally.”thers.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vanguard-goes-big-crypto-thanks-151104402.html


2. Ethereum ETF 100% Off Lows….Price Failed 3x in Low 30’s During 2024

www.stockcharts.com


3. Rising Home Prices and Stock Prices Put Household Balance Sheets in Good Shape.

Irrelevant Investor Blog

https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/the-compound-and-friends-reasons-to-remain-overweight-4903


4. SLV vs. GLD Chart….Silver Outperformance Started in April.



5. Mag 7 ETF Right at Previous Highs…No Breakout Yet.

www.stockcharts.com


6. Number of AI Patents Granted.

Google spent $2.4 billion to hire the leaders of an artificial intelligence programming company, the latest big-ticket move in an intensifying AI talent war. Windsurf’s CEO and co-founder will join Google DeepMind along with several top employees. Tech giants buying stakes in rivals attracts the attention of antitrust regulators, but hiring decisions do not, The New York Times reported; Google’s huge outlay is comparable to a soccer team paying a transfer fee to acquire a top player’s contract. Meta, too, has been on a hiring spree recently, sometimes offering compensation packages of up to $100 million for top talent, as it tries to make up ground in the AI race.

www.semafor.com


7. Demographics are Destiny.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/without-remedy-countries-with-aging-populations-are-set-for-weaker-income-growth-says-oecd-7ad9d2e7?mod=Searchresults_pos3&page=1


8. Costco Kirkland Brand $86B in Annual Sales.

https://luckboxmagazine.com/topics/costcos-behemoth-private-label/


9. Crypto exchanges rushed to list Trump’s coin – leaving many losers and some big winners

By Hannah LangElizabeth HowcroftMichelle Conlin and Medha Singh

Summary

  • Companies
  • $TRUMP was listed in an average of 4 days by exchanges, vs 129 days for other big coins
  • Three crypto exchanges say they moved to list $TRUMP fast because of customer demand
  • Exchanges say no corners were cut in vetting the coin for listing
  • White House says Trump coin poses ‘no conflicts of interest’

NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) – Crypto exchange Coinbase assures users on its website that it puts any new digital coin through “rigorous” vetting before allowing it to trade. It’s an at-times lengthy process meant to protect customers by examining the people connected to the project and the risk of market manipulation or other scams.

With President Donald Trump’s crypto token, $TRUMP, Coinbase made up its mind in just one day.

Make sense of the latest ESG trends affecting companies and governments with the Reuters Sustainable Switch newsletter. Sign up here.

The $TRUMP token, which launched three days before his inauguration in January, is a meme coin. Based on cultural fads or celebrities, these coins have no intrinsic value and – past experience has shown – are prone to large price swings that can leave investors with losses.

A Reuters analysis of crypto market data and industry announcements found that, compared to other recent large meme coins, the biggest crypto exchanges took Trump’s to market with unusual speed, despite stating they vet risky coins thoroughly to protect small investors.

Some also approved the listing in spite of the high share of coins concentrated in the hands of Trump and his partners, which would normally represent a red flag because of the risk that dumping of tokens by insiders could collapse the price and hurt other investors, some executives said.

After reaching an all-time high of $75.35 on April 19, just two days after its launch, $TRUMP crashed to the $7 range by early April, leaving many holders nursing losses. It was trading around $9.55 Thursday.

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/crypto-exchanges-rushed-list-trumps-coin-leaving-many-losers-some-big-winners-2025-07-14


10. Parlays and Memes

Gen Z trades stocks the same way it gambles-Young people have high risk tolerance. More news at 11.

Luke Kawa

Afriend passed along a recent blog post from Drive by DraftKings, a venture capital firm whose founding partners include (wait for it) DraftKingsDKNG $43.85 (1.91%), titled, “The Gen Z Effect: The Behavioral Shift Shaping Gaming, Fandom, and Human Performance.”

Here’s a passage that piqued my interest (emphasis added)

“Gen Z’s approach to gaming is clear. They gravitate toward formats that are fast, emotionally charged, and offer the chance at a meaningful payoff. Traditional, slow-paced gameplay is losing ground to experiences that deliver instant feedback and the possibility of an outsized win.

This is why crash games, meme stocks, and parlay bets have gained so much traction with this generation. These formats share a common formula: low-cost entry, high potential upside, and just enough unpredictability to keep things exciting. A recent Morgan Stanley survey found that 60% of bettors aged 21 to 34 have placed parlays, a rate nearly 30% higher than the overall population. Similarly, around 30% of US stock investors aged 18 to 24 have invested in meme stocks compared to 12% of investors ages 45-54.

It’s not just the payout that attracts Gen Z. It’s the emotional volatility, the rush of possibility, and the shareable nature of “just-missed” or jackpot moments. The appeal is simple: put down a small amount, take a swing, and hope to hit it big. Most of these bets won’t pay off, but the ones that do tend to go viral. Social media elevates these wins, creating a sense of FOMO that draws others in. It becomes a feedback loop of visibility, aspiration, and repeat behavior, which keeps Gen Z highly engaged and emotionally invested in the experience.”

To riff on this conception of a “common formula” between parlays and meme stock punts, which often take place through the options market to access embedded leverage:

Both parlays and short-term options punts are examples of things where you need multiple things to go right to win. In parlays, it’s discrete (usually sports-related) outcomes; in options, you need to get the direction and magnitude right by a certain point in time.

This is why I love the use of options as a storytelling device: they are always and everywhere a greed, fear, or complacency play built around a specific date by which something needs to either happen or not happen. There’s a subject, verb, and time.

“I think one thing that’s very clear about Gen Z is that they’ve repeatedly been told nobody is coming to save you,” Emily Sundberg, author of the Feed Me Substack, said at a live taping of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast. “You hear this sense of ‘get the bag while the world is still here for you to make some money out of it.’”

Kind of ironic that the generation that thinks nothing in the world is going right for them seeks out betting and trading structures that require multiple things to go right to profit.

Is this really a Gen Z thing, though?

One can quibble about some of this line of thought. And I will. The 2021 meme stock boom was occurring when the average member of Gen Z was just in their early high school years. I doubt many of them were part of the Apes Together Strong crew.  

The “YOLO” catchphrase that serves as a shorthand for the kind of “eff it, we ball” approach to life was popularized by a somewhat seasoned millennial.

And to dodge any accusations of millennial-boosting, manias have existed well before we were a twinkle in our boomer parents’ eyes and will continue to persist long after we’re ashes. To this author, a person’s willingness to dive headfirst into booms is much more defined by their stage of life rather than the generation they belong to. Oh, to be young…

Gen Z likes structures with huge payoffs that often end in busts? How convenient for the VC firm, which concludes that the shifts in Gen Z behavior “reinforce why we focus where we do — on the edge of behavioral change, where category defining companies are born,” highlighting portfolio companies Triumph and Picklebet as great examples of firms whose products have been built for this generation.

https://sherwood.news/markets/gen-z-trades-stocks-the-same-way-it-gambles