Corporate insiders. “Corporate insider activity signals a bearish tone, with the Insider Transactions Ratio reflecting both caution and profit-taking behaviors.”
Daily Chartbook
5. Bitcoin Entering Historically Bullish Months
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright–Furthermore, October ushers in the strongest seasonal period for Bitcoin. From the end of September to the end of May, Bitcoin averages a gain of 133.7% over those eight months. Meanwhile, it averages a 5.6% gain from June to September, meaning that almost all of Bitcoin’s gains have historically come outside the summer months. Similarly, the NDW index of the ten largest cryptocurrencies by market cap (DWACRYPTO) has averaged a 13.3% gain during the weak period and a 166.8% gain during its strong period. Despite early-year weakness, Bitcoin’s performance has closely mirrored its historical average, remaining relatively flat from late May to now. On the other hand, DWACRYPTO rose 26% during the weak period, highlighting the relative strength of altcoins during a typically sluggish stretch.
Seasonality alone doesn’t drive markets, but it can offer useful context, especially when supported by broader market trends and technical indicators. While crypto momentum has cooled off from summer highs, seasonal trends and expanding breadth offer reasons for optimism. For those with the right risk tolerance, an improvement within cryptocurrencies could offer more than just pumpkin spice and playoff races this Fall.
Nasdaq
6. Total2 is Measure of Total Crypto Market Cap Ex-Bitcoin….+65% in One Year
Total2–Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding BTC, $
TradingView
7. Vanguard Softens Its Stance: Crypto ETF Access May Be Coming—From The Crypto Advisor Substack
The Crypto Advisor
As alluded to in the main segment, the institutional tide in crypto continues to turn – this time with Vanguard.
The world’s second-largest asset manager, with $10.4 trillion in AUM, is preparing to allow access to crypto ETFs on its brokerage platform, Crypto in America has learned. This change in tune is notable coming from one of the most conservative firms – and one that not long ago said, “We also have no plans to offer Vanguard Bitcoin ETFs or other crypto-related products—our perspective is long-standing that cryptocurrencies’ high volatility runs counter to our goal of helping investors generate positive real returns over the long term.”
The significance is hard to miss. One of the industry’s most prominent crypto holdouts may now be preparing to open the door. With regulators fast-tracking ETF approvals and Vanguard’s new CEO, Salim Ramji, bringing direct experience from BlackRock’s blockbuster IBIT launch, the competitive pressure to offer access is mounting. If Vanguard moves forward, it could mark another milestone in bringing crypto into the mainstream toolkit of American investors.
Scientists in China have developed a revolutionary new “bone glue” that can heal fractures, which could traditionally take months to heal, in a matter of minutes, according to a report.
Product “Bone-02’ was developed by a Chinese research team, which sought to fix orthopedic injuries that would generally require months of downtime and invasive surgeries that often include metal plate insertions, the Global Times reported.
Lin Xianfeng, associate chief orthopedic surgeon at Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, in Hangzhou, said the adhesive can achieve precise fixation in a matter of minutes even in blood-rich environments.
An X-ray of a broken arm that could be treated by the Chinese invented “bone glue” in just minutes.Nattapol_Sritongcom – stock.adobe.com
The glue treatment comes in the form of a single injection and will “bond shattered bone fragments in just three minutes,” according to that report.
The video player is currently playing an ad. You can skip the ad in 5 sec with a mouse or keyboard
In one trial case, a patient with a wrist fracture received one injection via a mere 3 cm incision and was healed in just three minutes, Cho Sun Daily reported.
Twenty years ago, I wrote The UltraMind Solution proposing a radical idea: to fix your broken brain, you need to fix your body first. The medical establishment wasn’t ready. Today, Stanford Medicine is proving me right.
Dr. Shebani Sethi just published results that should shake psychiatry to its core. Her metabolic psychiatry approach achieved what decades of psychiatric drugs couldn’t: 100% reversal of metabolic syndrome in patients with serious mental illness, plus dramatic improvements in their psychiatric symptoms.
Here’s the science they don’t want you to know.
The 100-Year Cover-Up
A century ago, psychiatrists observed elevated lactate and low glutathione in patients with serious mental illness—clear markers of cellular energy dysfunction. Then we abandoned this research for the more profitable neurotransmitter model.
This resulted in treating symptoms while ignoring causes.
Your Brain on Metabolic Dysfunction
Consider these facts:
Type 2 diabetics’ mitochondria function at half the rate of healthy individuals
The brain has the highest concentration of mitochondria of any organ
93.2% of Americans have some form of metabolic dysfunction
People with insulin resistance have double the risk of depression
When your cellular powerhouses can’t produce energy efficiently, your brain doesn’t get a headache—it produces depression, anxiety, bipolar disorder, and schizophrenia.
The Stanford Breakthrough
Dr. Sethi’s ketogenic therapy trial delivered results that would make Big Pharma nervous:
36% reduction in visceral fat
27% reduction in insulin resistance
12% weight loss
Complete reversal of metabolic syndrome in every participant
Significant improvement in psychiatric symptoms
Unlike psychiatric medications that cause weight gain, diabetes, and metabolic syndrome, this approach fixes the underlying biology.
The Mechanism Medicine Ignores
Here’s what happens when your metabolism breaks down:
Mitochondrial dysfunction reduces brain energy
Chronic inflammation damages neural pathways
Insulin resistance impairs neuroplasticity
Oxidative stress accelerates brain aging
We’ve been giving antidepressants to people with broken cellular metabolism. It’s like trying to start a car with sugar in the gas tank.
Beyond the Ketogenic Diet
Metabolic psychiatry isn’t just about going keto. It’s about fixing the four core mechanisms of metabolic disease:
At our Function Health centers, we’re seeing what Dr. Sethi describes: 70% of people have nutritional deficiencies, 95% show metabolic dysfunction, and 46% have elevated inflammation markers.
We’re not dealing with a mental health crisis, we’re dealing with a metabolic health crisis that manifests as mental illness.
What This Means for You
If you’re struggling with depression, anxiety, or other mental health issues, ask yourself: Has anyone ever checked your insulin resistance? Your nutrient levels? Your inflammatory markers?
Probably not. Because the current system profits from managing symptoms, not curing diseases.
Dr. Sethi has launched Metabolic Psychiatry Labs to make this approach accessible nationwide. Stanford is scaling up research. The science is solid.
The question isn’t whether metabolic psychiatry works—it’s whether our healthcare system will embrace it or continue pushing pills that treat symptoms while the underlying biology deteriorates.
Your brain deserves better than a broken system. Your body holds the keys to your mental health.
China’s BYD and Sany dominate the global electric freight truck market.
Fewer than 1% of heavy-duty trucks are electric in India, the U.S., and Europe, compared with 22% in China.
High upfront costs, a lack of charging infrastructure, and fragmented ownership make electrification of trucks difficult.
China flooded the world with electric cars. Its next target is freight trucks.
BYDi, the Chinese automaker that overtook Tesla in sales of electric cars last year, now ships electric freight trucks to Italy, Poland, Spain, and Mexico — alongside eight other Chinese companies that dominate the global market. Chinese automakers accounted for 80% of the world’s 90,000 electric cargo-truck sales last year, according to the International Energy Agency.
Globally, CO2 emissions from heavy-duty vehicles have risen by almost 3% every year between 2000 and 2018. Trucks accounted for 80% of the increase. Their outsize impact on the environment has made the electrification of trucks crucial for climate goals. Chinese companies are capitalizing on their massive home-market scale to export commercial-truck solutions, building factories from Mexico to Europe
“They bring cost competitiveness, manufacturing know-how, and proven technology stacks,” Bill Russo, founder and CEO of Automobility Limited, a Shanghai-based advisory firm, told Rest of World. “In many ways, they act as enablers for global fleet operators who want to decarbonize but lack local suppliers at scale.”
In China, electric trucks captured 22% of the heavy-duty market in the first half of 2025. In contrast, India sold just 280 long-haul electric trucks out of 834,578 total commercial truck sales last year. In Europe, EVs represent about 1% of truck sales. Tesla’s much-hyped Semi truck — announced in 2017 and delivered in token quantities to Pepsi in 2022 — has all but vanished due to component failures, range anxiety, and high costs.
10. Ed Stack: Lessons from Dick’s Sporting Goods-Shane Parish
Ed Stack built Dick’s Sporting Goods from a struggling family store into an empire of more than 800 stores and billions in sales. Along the way he nearly lost everything. Multiple times.
This episode is the story of what he did, how he did it, and the lessons you can learn.
Lessons From Ed Stack:
1. Believing in someone before they believe in themselves changes everything. Dick Stack’s grandmother pulled $300 from her cookie jar after his boss crossed out his carefully crafted list. She didn’t give him business advice or connections. She gave him belief. Dick’s Sporting Goods exists because a grandmother believed in an eighteen-year-old kid who barely graduated high school.
2. Your name is your biggest asset.When Dick’s second store failed in 1956, he could have declared bankruptcy like everyone expected. Instead, he sold his house, his car, everything he owned to pay back creditors in full. Six weeks later, when he asked those same suppliers for another chance, they remembered. Trust isn’t earned in the easy times; it’s earned in the fire.
3. Develop a taste for saltwater. Ed despised working at his father’s store every summer and on weekends from age thirteen. While friends played baseball, he unloaded trucks in suffocating heat. However miserable those years were, he learned. However, sometimes your worst experiences are the best education.
4. Ignorance can be a superpower. Ed and Tim signed papers to buy land in Syracuse with no plan, no budget, and no idea they were getting a “vanilla box”. They nearly opened a store with empty walls. They made every possible mistake. But here’s the thing: if they’d known everything that could go wrong, they might never have even tried to expand. Sometimes knowing too much kills action.
5. The quiet one is the decision maker. At the make-or-break GE Capital meeting, suits grilled Ed for ninety minutes. But in the back corner sat a man who never spoke, just watched. Ed reflected later, “If you’re in a meeting and there’s a guy sitting off in a corner, not saying anything, that’s the guy you probably have to convince. He’s the decision-maker.” Every important meeting works this way: The loud ones interrogate. The quiet one decides.
6. Own your mistakes. When GE Capital asked about Dick’s near-bankruptcy, Ed didn’t deflect or minimize. In fact, he was brutally honest: “We made a series of mistakes. Here’s what they were. Here’s why we made them. Here’s exactly how we’ll ensure they never happen again.” Most people explain away failure. The best own it. The precision of your diagnosis proves the depth of your learning.
7. Never rely on the kindness of strangers. After nearly losing everything in 1996, Ed learned what Buffett knew: “Never count on the kindness of strangers to meet tomorrow’s obligations.” The banks can’t take your business if you don’t owe them money. Never put yourself in a position to need the kindness of strangers.
8. Pick the company that wants it more.When Puma and Adidas wouldn’t return Ed’s calls, he gave shelf space to an upstart company that really wanted it. That company was Nike. When established brands ignored them, he backed a hungry football player making shirts in his grandmother’s basement. That company was Under Armour. Sometimes the best deals come from those desperate to prove themselves, not those who’ve already made it.
9. When the map and territory differ, believe the territory. The VCs pulled out spreadsheets showing Ed what looked good on the screen. But Ed remembered that kid in Buffalo who gasped at thirty feet of baseball gloves. Sure, that wall of gloves didn’t turn inventory fast, but it got people in the store. When spreadsheets and customers disagree, the customers are almost always right. The data isn’t wrong. You’re measuring the wrong thing. The map is not the territory. The spreadsheet is not the store.
10. Remember what you’re really selling. Dick’s Sporting Goods became an empire because Dick and Ed Stack knew they weren’t just selling equipment. They were selling dreams. When you understand what people really buy, you understand everything.
11. Become someone people want to root for. If people think you’re overrated, they’ll root against you. However, if people see you as underrated, they’ll go out of their way to help you. There is no status quo.
2. Foreign-Held U.S. Equities Hit New Record Highs
NDR
3. Meanwhile…No Money is Flocking to Euro
Apollo
4. Gold Pulling Away from Bitcoin Since August
YCharts
5. Lithium Price Still -90% From Highs
Bespoke
6. COIN Hit $444 at highs…-27% from that Level….Holding June Levels
StockCharts
7. Consumer Staple Bear Market …Now KVUE Tylenol News…Pulls Back to 3-Year Lows
StockCharts
8. Distribution of Stock and Housing Wealth in America
Ben Carlson
9. Africa Trading is Owned by China vs. U.S.
Semafor
10. 4 Ways to Protect Your Path to Purpose
Why managing risks may matter more than chasing dreams. Jordan Grumet M.D.
Key points
Financial planning frees time and choice, fueling a more purposeful life.
Using leisure wisely reduces the risk of living without fulfillment.
Courage means saying yes, embracing discomfort, and growing into purpose.
In the financial world, we spend a lot of time talking about risk mitigation. It’s the art of putting safeguards in place to reduce potential losses. Not eliminating risk entirely, but managing it well. A smart financial plan doesn’t just focus on growing wealth; it pays attention to protecting what you already have.
I often think the same applies to purpose. We get so caught up in searching for purpose—chasing passion, pursuing fulfillment—that we forget there are forces working against us. If we don’t account for those risks, our best efforts can be derailed.
Sometimes the surest way to live with meaning isn’t by adding more, but by defending against what might take it away. Here are four ways to risk-mitigate when it comes to purpose.
1. Financial Planning
Money isn’t the only tool for building a purposeful life, but it is a powerful one. Having financial stability gives you choices: the choice to leave a job that no longer fits, to outsource tasks that drain you, or to invest your time in the relationships and activities that bring you joy.
When you save and invest, the goal isn’t simply to watch the numbers climb in your account. It’s to have better control over the one thing that is most precious to us: our time. Purpose thrives when you can structure your calendar around what matters most, not just what pays the bills.
Financial independence won’t guarantee a life of purpose, but it creates breathing room to pursue it.
2. Time Management
If you ask most people what stands in the way of living with purpose, they’ll say “not enough time.” Yet the U.S. Time Use Survey tells a different story: the average American has four and a half to five hours of free time a day.
The real issue isn’t scarcity—it’s choice. How you spend those hours may be the single biggest factor in whether you feel fulfilled. Do you scroll endlessly through your phone, or do you connect with a friend, volunteer, read, or create something new?
Time is a risk in disguise. Used passively, it drains away. Used intentionally, it’s your best ally in building a meaningful life.
3. Courage
Even with money and time, purpose doesn’t just appear. One of the biggest risks is failing to act because we lack courage.
Living with purpose requires experimentation. It means stepping outside comfort zones, trying things you’ve never done before, and accepting the discomfort that comes with growth. Different outcomes only come from different choices.
Courage is the willingness to say yes to the new activity, the unexpected invitation, and the unfamiliar challenge. Yes to the awkward first step that might lead to joy. Yes to the unknown.
Purpose doesn’t arrive fully formed. It’s discovered through small, brave acts repeated over time.
4. Social Media
If courage expands our world, social media often shrinks it. Platforms are filled with people selling their own versions of purpose: influencers, advertisers, politicians. They dangle images of success, belonging, or happiness, usually tied to something they want you to buy or believe.
These borrowed definitions of purpose are often big, audacious, and unattainable. And when we measure ourselves against them, we risk sliding into frustration, anxiety, or despair.
Protecting your sense of purpose sometimes comes down to something simple: putting the phone down. Reconnect with your own values, not someone else’s curated highlight reel.
In Conclusion
Purpose isn’t just about offense—chasing dreams, setting goals, or building passions. It’s also about defense: protecting ourselves from the forces that erode our sense of fulfillment.
Financial planning, mindful use of time, everyday courage, and boundaries around social media are all forms of risk mitigation. They don’t hand you purpose, but they clear the path so you can pursue it without constant sabotage.
Risk mitigation may not sound glamorous, but it’s practical, and it works. Identify the biggest threats to your purposeful life and take steps to guard against them. When you do, you’ll find it much easier to build the life you want.
Gold reserves. “How long can America afford to sit out the global rush for gold? US gold reserves are now at 90-year lows, while the rest of the world has pushed their holdings to near 50-year highs. At one point, America held over 50% of global gold reserves. Today? Just 20%.”
Daily Chartbook
2. Ex-Tech U.S. Economy Negative Real Growth
Jim Reid Deutsche Bank My colleague George Saravelos wrote an interesting short blog here yesterday that discussed how ex-tech spending, the US would have been close to, or in, recession earlier this year. This was first highlighted by our equity strategists here.
George argues that this huge AI capex can help explain why weak payrolls aren’t hurting growth and why global trade is resilient (a chip trade scramble).
It’s fair to say expectations are that this surging AI capex spend won’t stop until there is a reason to doubt the potential profitability of it. So it will continue to be a big top-down theme of 2026.
Simplifying it, perhaps Nvidia, which employed only 36,000 people at the last update earlier this year, holds the keys to all global macro in 2026! Traditional macro models will surely struggle to capture this.
See George’s short blog for more detail and his latest Blueprint here, from this earlier week, for all his latest FX forecasts.
Jim Reid
3. S&P Sector Returns Around Fed Rate Cuts
Dave Lutz Jones Trading In the four cycles since the 1970s where the Fed delivered only one or two cuts after pausing at least six months, cyclical sectors like financials and industrials outperformed, per Ned Davis. In cycles where four or more cuts were needed, investors leaned defensive.
4. Defensive Sectors About to Break Internet Bubble Lows vs. S&P 500
Topdown Charts Limited
5. Platinum Breaks-Out of Sideways Pattern…New Highs
StockCharts
6. FNMA -22% Correction…Up Over +200% YTD on Go Private Trade
StockCharts
7. Robinhood Crypto and options trading drove almost 80% of the brokerage’s transaction-based revenues in the second quarter….PERPS Majority of Bitcoin Volume
Get Rich or Get Wiped Out: Bitcoin’s Hottest New Trade
Perpetual futures offer traders extreme leverage to bet on cryptocurrencies
Traders seeking rapid returns have made a speculative bitcoin play one of the most popular crypto bets globally: so-called perpetual futures. These potentially offer returns of 10, 20 or even 100 times an initial investment—or huge losses that could leave a trader with nothing
Known as perps, the contracts give traders access to extreme leverage and have exploded in popularity during a rally that has sent bitcoin prices up more than 70% over the past year. Though popular in other parts of the world, perps were largely unavailable until recently to U.S. traders on regulated venues.
8. Boom of Multilayered SPVs………SPV Special Purpose Vehicles Inside Other SPVs
PitchBook
Multilayered special-purpose vehicles, where SPVs are nested inside others, are on the rise as investors clamor for slivers of hot venture-backed companies like OpenAI and SpaceX.
But the boom is also raising new questions about their complex fee structures, and their opacity has left some investors unclear about ownership of the underlying equity. Private market investment company Linqto’s recent bankruptcy highlighted those issues and sparked broader scrutiny of how these vehicles really work.
Some companies have started to denounce unauthorized sales of their equity, including in the form of digital tokens. Some prominent secondary marketplaces are opting out of allowing layered SPVs outright.
“When you have these SPVs that go into other SPVs that go into other SPVs, we don’t know whether the underlying SPV actually has the shares or the company or not,” said AngelList CEO Avlok Kohli. “We don’t want to be in a position where we are facilitating an SPV where, years later, when a company goes public or gets acquired, the investors are wondering, ‘Hey, where’s our distribution? Where’s our capital?’ And it’s like the shares weren’t there to begin with.”
SPV management fees are mounting
The proliferation of layered SPVs comes as secondary sales are soaring, with LPs and GPs looking to create some long-awaited liquidity.
SPV issuers typically impose an origination fee to cover administrative setup costs. But issuers are increasingly now charging ongoing management fees beyond that.
And recurring management fees for SPVs are becoming commonplace as competition heats up: At the top of the VC market in 2021, 41% of SPVs with more than $10 million of assets charged a management fee, according to Carta. In 2023, the latest available SPV data from Carta, 67% charged a fee.
The difficulty for many high-net-worth individuals and family offices to get into the fast-moving funding rounds for high-flying AI startups has ramped up the appeal of SPVs, said Hans Swildens, founder and CEO of secondaries firm Industry Ventures.
Private wealth advisers have also been pushing SPVs onto their clients, he added.
“SPVs have gone mainstream, as you’ve seen, and yes, people are starting to monetize them more through fees and carry,” said Swildens. Rising fees are disproportionately hitting smaller investors, while fund managers often waive SPV fees for existing LPs they invite to co-invest.
Larger SPVs are getting cheaper to set up, according to Anthony Cimino, Carta’s head of public policy. But costs continue to mount for layered SPVs, he said, which are usually smaller assets.
“What we’re trying to figure out is how do we help that broader fund marketplace provide clarity and credibility?” he said. “It’s no longer a situation where the costs around NAV reporting or the [setup] fee structures are basically creating a moat, where only the biggest and most-established players can do it.”
9. Unmanned Naval Vessels Booming
Boom in unscrewed surface vessels
A USMC LRUSV at dockside with eight Hero-120 loitering munitions in a green box and a munitions launcher tube shown on the pier.
Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs) are revolutionizing how we explore and protect our oceans. These autonomous vessels, operating at or near the sea surface without any onboard operators, are increasingly being employed across various sectors. From monitoring marine life to enhancing military surveillance, piracy control, and safeguarding offshore industries like gas, oil, and renewables, USVs are becoming indispensable due to their ability to collect data over extended periods at a fraction of the cost compared to traditional research ships, International Defense, Security and Technology reports.
Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs) have rapidly emerged as a game-changing military technology, with nations across the globe investing heavily in their development. These autonomous vessels offer the potential to revolutionize naval warfare, providing enhanced capabilities, reduced risks to human operators, and cost-effective solutions for a range of missions. However, as their capabilities grow, so does the threat they pose to maritime security.
Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USV ) is a vehicle that operates at or near the sea surface and has no vehicle operators on board. The USV are increasingly employed as they collect data for longer periods of time, at a fraction of the cost of Research ships, and with wide ranging scientific and industrial applications – from monitoring marine life to military surveillance, piracy control, fisheries protection and the offshore gas, oil and renewables industries.
Ukraine’s Strategic Use of USVs: Disrupting Modern Naval Warfare
Ukraine has strategically employed Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs) as a powerful tool in its ongoing conflict with Russia, particularly in the Black Sea. These versatile and cost-effective unmanned vessels have proven to be disruptive assets, capable of executing high-impact missions against Russian naval forces while minimizing risks to Ukrainian personnel. Ukraine’s innovative use of USVs underscores their growing role in modern naval warfare, offering new avenues for asymmetric strategies and tactical advantages.
One-Way Attacks and Swarming Tactics
Ukraine has primarily utilized USVs in one-way attack missions, deploying them to target Russian naval vessels with explosives. These expendable vessels are designed to deliver devastating payloads before being destroyed, ensuring maximum impact on enemy forces with minimal resource investment. Furthermore, Ukraine has employed swarming tactics, where multiple USVs are launched simultaneously to overwhelm enemy defenses. This tactic increases the likelihood of a successful strike by saturating the target area with multiple threats, making it difficult for defensive systems to neutralize all incoming vehicles. Additionally, USVs provide Ukraine with the ability to launch surprise attacks, exploiting vulnerabilities in enemy defenses and catching them off guard. In some cases, USVs are also used as diversionary tools, drawing attention away from other key areas or operations, further complicating the enemy’s ability to respond effectively.
Greetings. We regret to inform you—and that one kid from your high school who could randomly kick a football really far despite otherwise being unathletic—that punting is dying. NFL teams are punting just 3.65 times per game this season, the fewest in history. That’s because:
Offenses are starting with better field position, thanks to new kickoff rules.
Coaches are increasingly willing to go for it on fourth down.
Field goal kickers are getting more accurate from long range.
All of these developments could render the lowly punter irrelevant. Finally, a job is becoming obsolete and it has nothing to do with AI.
—Matty Merritt, Sam Klebanov, Dave Lozo, Adam Epstein, Neal Freyman, Holly Van Leuven
