1. Mag 7 Revenues and EPS at Record Highs…Not Dead Yet
Mag 7 vs. SPX. The Mag-7’s forward revenues and forward earnings share both are at new record highs of 11.8% and 22.6%.
Yardeni Quick Takes
2. S&P Ex-NVDA Trails Japan and Europe Since 2022
The Irrelevant Investor
3. VIX Volatility Index -50% in One Month
StockCharts
4. Valuations Back to Highs
Bloomberg
5. U.S. GDP Growth Turns Negative
yahoo!finance
6. Private Equity Distributions 11% vs. Average 25%
Bloomberg
7. Import Surge of Pharmaceuticals
Michael McDonough
8. Monthly Payment for Mortgage Doubled in Last 5 Years
The biggest constraint continues to be affordability, with the median housing payment needed to afford the median priced home nearly doubling over the past five years.
Charlie Bilello
9. Money Pours into American Soccer
More money is pouring into US soccer as the sport’s popularity grows in the country. Sponsorship revenue for Major League Soccer is up more than 10% so far this year compared to 2024, CNBC reported, alongside a surge in ticket and merch sales; much of that is owed to Argentinian superstar Lionel Messi joining Inter Miami in 2023. Newfound corporate support — coupled with next year’s men’s World Cup in North America — bodes well for soccer’s future in the US, an expert wrote in Sports Business Journal: American clubs still pale financially in comparison to the European giants, but “a perfect storm exists for one of the world’s oldest sports to reach a new zenith of popularity.”
Semafor
10. Face the Criticism (The Daily Stoic)
Marcus Aurelius was the public face of an empire. Seneca published plays and books. Cato and Cicero ran for office. Epictetus was a slave to a powerful Roman, at his whim and his mercy.
In other words, they knew what it was like to be criticized. They knew what it was like to be received warmly by the audience…and not so warmly. They were subject to withering abuse, talked about as if they were not standing right there or as if they didn’t have normal human feelings.
But of course they did.
So what Stoicism aimed to help them with was enduring the pains and blows of feedback and critique and attack. “If only they really knew me,” Epictetus once joked, “they say even worse things!” This was his way of making light of the cruel things he would have often heard from his abusive owner. “We care about ourselves more than other people,” Marcus Aurelius writes with bafflement in Meditations, “but care about other people’s opinions more than our own.” In another passage, he reminds himself to consider the character and the habits of the person attacking him—thinking about what they were doing in private just a few minutes ago.
These public-facing Stoics would have loved the response of the Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau when he was told that Richard Nixon had called him an “asshole.” “I have been called worse things by better people,” he said with a shrug.
Being criticized is part of the job—any and every job. So is being misunderstood. Being abused isn’t fair…but no one gets out of life without experiencing some share of it.
We have to be ready for it…and ready to put it in its proper context. We have to be ready to shrug it off…and count ourselves as lucky that it wasn’t worse. Because it always can be!
2. Nine-Day S&P Win Streak a 99th Percentile Event
DorseyWright
3. U.S. Dollar Chart-#1 to Watch 2025…Hit First Level of Support
StockCharts
4. Amazon Rally Stops Below 200-Day
StockCharts
5. No Slowdown in AI Captial Spending with Amazon Posting Biggest Projected Number
VettaFi
6. The Updated Chart—Exit from Mutual Funds to ETFs
Investment Company Institute
7. China Exempts 25% of American Imports from Tariffs
Bloomberg
8. Student Loan Data
Axios
9. Warren Buffett’s Rules
Dave Ahern
10. Ever experienced a headache from drinking red wine? Researchers may have identified a reason
Quercetin, a bioactive flavonoid present in red wine, can impair alcohol metabolism.
Via Peter Attia: While many of us enjoy a few alcoholic beverages with friends and family now and then, the consequences of overindulgence are famously unpleasant. Headache, nausea, fatigue, and general malaise are commonly experienced by over-imbibers and can be temporarily debilitating. The post-consumption headache is particularly common, but many find that not all sources of alcohol are equally likely to result in this symptom. Red wine, in particular, is notorious for inducing headaches and does so roughly 3-fold more frequently than other beverages,1 often within 30 minutes and after only a single glass.
But what might explain such an effect? One study suggests that the polyphenol quercetin, a biologically active molecule present at relatively high concentrations in red wine, might be responsible.2
What causes alcohol-related headaches?
Alcohol (or more precisely, ethanol, the type of alcohol present in alcoholic beverages) has direct effects on many physiological systems and is responsible for the “buzz” sensations people experience when drinking. However, the metabolism of alcohol involves production of an intermediate compound known as acetaldehyde, and it is the build up of acetaldehyde that appears to induce the unpleasant side effects of alcoholic beverages.
Production of acetaldehyde is the first step in alcohol metabolism, after which this intermediate compound is further metabolized by the enzyme acetaldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH) into harmless end-products. Slowing the rate of this second step can therefore lead to accumulation of acetaldehyde and the consequent headaches and other negative sensations associated with alcohol intake.
Indeed, the strongest evidence of acetaldehydes’ culpability in the undesirable effects of alcohol overconsumption comes from studies of individuals with a genetic defect in the ALDH2 gene. Those with a homozygous ALDH2 defect demonstrate almost no ALDH2 activity, and subsequently experience greatly increased acetaldehyde levels following even moderate alcohol consumption.3 Similarly, suppression of ALDH2 by the drug disulfiram also leads to increased serum acetaldehyde. Importantly, the undesirable effects of alcohol consumption, including headache, are highly prevalent in both those with ALDH2 defects and those taking disulfiram.4
But some data5 suggest that ALDH2 activity may also be impaired by quercetin, a biologically active flavonoid compound found in high levels in red wine. Red wine contains roughly 10-100 times higher concentrations of quercetin than beer, white wine, or spirits,6 so if the suppression of ALDH2 by quercetin is sufficient to significantly raise serum acetaldehyde levels, this might easily explain why undesirable effects seem more pronounced with red wine relative to other sources of alcohol. Investigators Devi et al. thus sought to determine the magnitude of the specific effects of quercetin on ALDH2 activity.
What they did
This study was designed to assess the ability of quercetin and its metabolites to affect the activity of ALDH2. To accomplish this, the researchers utilized an in vitro biochemical assay in which quercetin or related compounds were added to a solution containing human ALDH2 enzyme, and enzyme inhibition was measured by spectroscopy.
Quercetin at a concentration of 20 μM was found to inhibit ALDH2 by 28%, but in addition to this direct effect of quercetin itself, a major metabolite of quercetin — quercetin-3-glucuronide (Q3G) — caused an astounding ~78% inhibition of ALDH2. The IC-50 (the concentration of a substance required to reduce a biological process by half its maximal value) for quercetin and Q3G was calculated to be 26.5 μM and 9.6 μM, respectively. (For reference, the IC-50 of the ALDH2 inhibitor disulfiram was calculated to be 1.45 μM, indicating a stronger inhibitory effect by disulfiram than either quercetin or Q3G.)
Based on reports that quercetin is present in red wine at a concentration of about 50 μM and that most quercetin that reaches circulation is converted to Q3G, the authors calculated that consumption of a 150-ml glass of red wine would lead to serum Q3G concentrations of approximately 5 μM (out of a total quercetin concentration of ~6 μM). Given the findings of their in vitro tests, they then estimated that this amount of Q3G would impair ALDH2 activity by ~37%.
Interpreting these data
Though this study was well executed, its results only go so far. The use of an in vitro model, in which reagents are simply added together in a test tube, certainly presents a limitation to extrapolating these data to humans. When humans consume quercetin-containing food or drink, it must first be absorbed by the gastrointestinal tract and undergo first-pass metabolism by the liver before reaching circulation. What is the ultimate bioavailability of oral quercetin? The source (many vegetables and herbs contain quercetin, particularly capers, dill, fennel, and onions), presence of other macronutrients, and interindividual variation all appear to significantly impact absorption.7 Indeed, studies measuring serum quercetin levels after wine consumption have reported highly variable results, and although the 6 μM concentration estimated by Devi et al. does fall within reported ranges, it’s important to keep in mind that this was an estimate — they performed no in vivo experiments to actually measure the resulting quercetin concentrations.
This brings us to another noteworthy caveat, which is that these experiments also did not attempt to determine the effect of 37% ALDH2 inhibition on acetaldehyde build-up — the key variable in assessing whether ALDH2 inhibition by quercetin might translate to noticeable differences in the negative symptoms of alcohol intake. (Again, this is weaker inhibition than is seen with disulfiram, which is known to have a very strong effect on alcohol-related side effects.) While it is possible that red wine consumption could increase serum quercetin metabolite concentrations high enough to significantly impact ALDH2 activity and therefore increase serum acetaldehyde to a level sufficient to induce a headache, Devi et al. demonstrate only one isolated link in this chain of events — albeit a critical one for which we had the least prior evidence. No study has yet attempted to simultaneously measure all of these variables, let alone in human subjects.
Can you enjoy red wine but avoid the headache?
Still, if we assume these results reflect a genuine, significant pathway underlying the dreaded “red wine headache,” does this mean that you can never enjoy a cabernet or merlot without pain? Not exactly, as various strategies exist for mitigating the headache-inducing effects.
The simplest approaches are old standbys: drink less in total, make sure to consume plenty of water while drinking wine, and extend the consumption window to allow more time for acetaldehyde metabolism to occur and prevent it from building up in the blood. But wines also vary significantly in their quercetin content. White wines and rosés contain far less quercetin than reds, and even among reds, some varieties and vintages will have higher or lower levels than others. (In fact, some winemakers take intentional steps to reduce quercetin content through filtration and fining agents during the winemaking process, as quercetin tends to cause precipitates to form in wine.) Choosing a variety with a low level of quercetin may be advantageous, though this can be challenging since factors such as soil properties and sun exposure — which can change from year to year and aren’t generally disclosed on a bottle’s label — can have substantial impacts.
Unfortunately, these mitigation strategies don’t apply universally. If you happen to carry two copies of a defective ALDH gene (common for those of East Asian descent) and experience symptoms after any alcohol consumption, it is unlikely any of these approaches will provide much relief. Further, if quercetin contributes to headaches with red wine, it may not be the only factor that does so. Some individuals find that at-home wine filters, which remove many sulfites and histamines but do not affect quercetin, help to prevent wine-related headaches, suggesting that these other molecules play a role in generating this particular symptom. Finally, we must emphasize that these strategies might prevent the short-term negative effects of alcohol, but, with the exception of reducing total intake, we have no evidence that they would reduce alcohol’s numerous long-term negative effects on health.
The bottom line
Devi et al. identified a plausible mechanism to explain the headache and hangover symptoms commonly experienced by red wine drinkers. A study using human subjects and simultaneously measuring the quercetin content of alcoholic beverages, serum acetaldehyde, serum quercetin content following consumption, and the presence and severity of headache and hangover symptoms would help confirm the proposed links between red wine and headaches, though there would still exist some possibility that quercetin is not the only culprit.
In the meantime, those who wish to enjoy wine without the headache might try various mitigation strategies to lessen symptoms, but of course, the surest strategy — and the one that is best for long-term health, as well — is to reduce overall intake.
1. Hard to Believe But…April 2025 Volatility was Only Eclipsed by 1987 Crash and GFC
History Books: Here’s one for the history books — the amount of volatility we saw in early April was eclipsed only by the 1987 crash and 2008/09 financial crisis.
Michael McDonough
2. Barrons Big Money Poll: Professional Investors the Most Bearish in 28 Years
America’s money managers are more bearish today than they have been in nearly 30 years. Barron’s latest Big Money poll of professional investors finds 32% of respondents bearish on the outlook for stocks over the next 12 months—the highest percentage since at least 1997. Just think about all the crises investors have weathered since then: the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the 2008-09 financial crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic. And yet the Big Money pros are more anxious now than during any of those painful points for the financial markets, the economy, and the country. The bulls’ ranks also stand at historic levels in our spring survey—historically low, that is. Just 26% of respondents call themselves bullish on the market’s prospects, the smallest percentage since 1997.
Barron’s
3. April Largest Monthly Positive Inflows by Retail Investors on Record
Retail investors (II) …retail investors tracked by JPMorgan “net bought $40B in April, surpassing last month and setting a new record for the largest monthly inflow.”
The Market Ear
4. S&P 500 Trades Right Back to 200-Day Moving Average
StockCharts
5. Nasdaq QQQ Trades Right Back to 200-Day
StockCharts
6. Post-Liberation Day Returns
It’s been exactly a month since “Liberation Day” on April 2nd when President Trump announced massive reciprocal tariffs on the rest of the world. At its intraday low on April 8th, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was down 14.7% from its closing level on April 2nd. Since that low, SPY has now rallied 17.4%, and as of this morning, SPY has fully recovered all of its post-Liberation Day declines.
Below is a look at the performance of key index and sector ETFs since the close on Liberation Day (4/2). Technology (XLK) is now the best performing sector since 4/2 with a gain of 2.9%, followed by the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Semis (SMH), and Industrials (XLI). On the downside, the Energy sector (XLE) has been by far the biggest laggard with a decline of 12.7%.
Besporke
7. Eli Lilly Biggest One-Day Sell Off in 17 Years…P/E has Dropped from 80x to 40x
Bloomberg
8. Office Delinquencies Turn Back Up
Via WOLF STREET. Delinquencies of office mortgages that were securitized into commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) have been in the red-hot zone since mid-2023 and in December 2024 hit 11.0%, surpassing even the debt-meltdown during the Financial Crisis. Then, during the first three months of 2025, the delinquency rate backed off some, but in April re-spiked by 52 basis points to 10.3%, according to data by Trepp today, which tracks and analyzes CMBS.
The 52-basis-point increase of the delinquency rate represented a U-Turn from the feeble signs of hope earlier this year and put the delinquency rate right back into the peak of the Financial Crisis meltdown.
A flight to quality has divided the office market into two: Amid much reduced demand for office space, vacancies in the latest and greatest buildings allow companies to move from older office towers into new fancy offices, while downsizing space at the same time . But landlords of older properties have trouble finding new tenants to replace them, and their vacancy rates have soared. It’s those older office towers that are on the problem list, not the latest and greatest towers.
Wolf Street
9. The Tesla of the Toy Market—Pop Mart is Worth More than Rival Toy Makers Combined
Although the company’s been on a rocky ride since going public in late 2020 — with revenue not always measuring up to its previously blistering pace — shares have risen ~460% in the past year and hit a record high in the last week, adding $1.6 billion to Pop Mart’s founder’s wealth in a single day. The surge has also seen the company’s market cap roar to $33.6 billion, making it more valuable than Hello Kitty giant Sanrio, Transformers behemoth Hasbro, and Barbie-maker Mattel… combined.
Could the ongoing US-China trade war put a dent in Labubu-mania, or will Pop Mart still look positively dolled-up further into the future?
10. Warren Buffett: ‘The long-term trend is up’
Via TKer — Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, remains bullish on the long run. At the same time, he acknowledges that people will continue to be distracted by short-term market moves, which will continue to be unpredictable.
“The long-term trend is up,“ Buffett said at Berkshire’s annual shareholders meeting on Saturday.
“Nobody knows what the market is going to do tomorrow, next week, next month,” he added. “But they spend all their time talking about it, because it’s easy to talk about. But it has no value.”
Buffett was responding to a shareholder’s question about Berkshire’s massive cash pile, which grew to $347 billion in Q1. He reiterated what he said in his annual letter, which was that his preference is not to be sitting in so much cash. But he made clear that holding cash was smarter than making brash acquisitions.
“We would rather have conditions that have developed where we would have like $50 billion or something like that,” he said. “But that just isn’t the way the business works.”
Buffett explained if he acquired businesses or accumulated stock solely for the sake of getting that cash pile down to $50 billion, “That would be the dumbest thing in the world to invest in that manner.”
For now, Buffett believes it’s better to keep dry powder for when Berkshire could be “bombarded with offerings” that offer better risk-reward opportunities than what he’s seeing today.
“We have made a lot of money by not wanting to be fully invested at all times,” he said.
Of course, this strategy is not for everyone. Buffett and Berkshire are in the business of acquiring companies and picking stocks. In fact, Buffett has historically recommended most people to invest in passively managed S&P 500 index funds.
“We don’t think it’s improper for people who are passive investors to just make a few simple investments and sit for their life in them,” he said. “But we’ve made the decision to be in this business. So we think we can do a little better than that.“
Buffett downplays recent market volatility, warns of a ‘hair curler’ event 📉
A shareholder asked Buffett specifically about the market swings we experienced in the past month.
“What has happened in the last 30, 45 days, 100 days … it’s really nothing,” he said. “This is not a huge move. … This has not been a dramatic bear market or anything of the sort.“
Indeed, you can get smoked in the short-term. It’s one of the truths about the stock market.
“If it makes a difference to you whether your stocks are down 15% or not, you need to get a somewhat different investment philosophy,” Buffett said. “The world is not going to adapt to you. You’re going to have to adapt to the world.”
Buffett cautioned that just because he doesn’t think the recent market swings were notable doesn’t mean we won’t get a more violent downturn some time in the future. He said “certainly in the next 20 years” we will get a “hair curler” event.
“The world makes big, big, big mistakes, and surprises happen in dramatic ways,” he said. “The more sophisticated the system gets, the more the surprises can be out of right field. That’s part of the stock market. That’s what makes it a good place to focus your efforts if you have the proper temperament for it — and a terrible place to get involved if you get frightened by markets that decline and get excited when stock markets go up. I don’t mean to sound particularly critical. People have emotions. But you have to check them at the door when you invest.”
Zooming out 🔭
Buffett covered a lot during his five-hour long Q&A. His comments on protectionist trade policy and pessimism toward the U.S. economy were particularly interesting. A lot of media outlets are covering it. I may write about it later.
But the big news out of this year’s event was Buffett’s announcement that he intends to step down as CEO as he makes way for vice chairman Greg Abel to succeed him.
“I think the time has arrived where Greg should become the chief executive officer of the company at year-end,” Buffett said.
Buffett’s time at the helm of Berkshire may be coming to an end. But his timeless investing lessons will surely endure.
4. Interesting…Who is Buying Gold Protection? Asia
Commodities: Retail purchases of gold in Asia surged over the past 12 months.
Daily Shot Brief
5. Stocks/Gold and the U.S. Dollar
Ben Carlson
6. Energy ETF Broke 2 levels…Exxon and Chevron 40% of ETF
StockCharts
7. Starbucks Gives Back All NEW CEO Rally…. -30% from Highs
StockCharts
8. Pfizer Down on 5-Year Basis
Google Finance
9. Russians Building a Military Base 100 Miles from Finland
Via WSJ: HELSINKI—With President Trump and many other world leaders preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, some Europeans are growing alarmed about what the Russian army has been doing much more quietly along other stretches of its border with Europe.
Some 100 miles east of its border with Finland, in the Russian city of Petrozavodsk, military engineers are expanding army bases where the Kremlin plans to create a new army headquarters to oversee tens of thousands of troops over the next several years.
As Russia prepares to increase its military presence along NATO’s eastern flank, Putin has ordered the military to expand its ranks to as many as 1.5 million troops, up from around one million before the Ukraine invasion.
Russia has increased military spending to more than 6% of GDP this year, from 3.6% before the war. By comparison, the U.S. spent 3.4% of its GDP on its military last year, and EU countries, on average, spent 2.1%. In 2021, before the invasion, Russia made about 40 of its main battle tanks, the T-90M, according to Western intelligence estimates. Now it is producing nearly 300 a year. A senior Finnish military official said almost none are being sent to the front line in Ukraine, but are staying on Russian soil for later use.
You don’t need to be a meal prep pro—you just need a few simple go-to methods that make your whole foods ready to eat. These are some of the easiest, most versatile ways to get set up for the week ahead.
1. Roast Lots of Vegetables
Roasting brings out the natural sweetness in vegetables and makes them more satisfying and snackable. You can batch-cook a tray or two early in the week and use them in salads, bowls, or as a ready-to-eat snack or side.
Best vegetables for roasting: cauliflower, broccoli, carrots, Brussels sprouts, sweet potatoes, zucchini
Preheat the oven to 425°F.
Chop your veggies into similar-sized pieces so they roast evenly.
Toss with about 1 teaspoon of avocado oil per cup of vegetables.
Add dried herbs and spices—rosemary, smoked paprika, cumin, and garlic powder all work well.
Spread veggies in a single layer on a baking sheet (don’t crowd them).
Roast, stirring every 10 minutes, until fork-tender—usually 20 to 40 minutes, depending on the vegetable.
Sprinkle with sea salt and pepper to taste once they’re done.
2. Make Shredded Meat
Shredded protein is one of the easiest ways to prep for the week. Toss it into salads, wraps, bowls, soups, or have it ala carte. The key is matching the method to the type of meat.
Stovetop method (best for chicken breast, chicken thighs, turkey breast)
Add 1–2 pounds of boneless, skinless poultry to a saucepan or skillet.
Pour in just enough water or broth to cover.
Add a pinch of salt or flavor boosters like garlic cloves or a bay leaf.
Bring to a boil, then reduce heat and simmer gently for 15–20 minutes, until fully cooked.
Let cool slightly, then shred with two forks or your hands.
Slow cooker method (best for pork shoulder, beef chuck roast, or boneless short ribs)
Add 2–3 pounds of meat to the slow cooker.
Pour in ½ to 1 cup of broth or water. Add chopped onion, garlic, or dried herbs if you’d like.
Cook on low for 6–8 hours or on high for 3–4 hours, until fork-tender.
Shred and store in an airtight container for up to 4 days.
3. Prepare Healthy Dips and Dressings
Dips and dressings can make vegetables, proteins, and salads more appealing—but most store-bought versions are packed with added sugar, preservatives, and low-quality oils.
Instead, try making your own. It only takes a few minutes, and you can control exactly what goes in.
This kitchen clean-out is just one part of the 10-Day Detox—our simple, step-by-step reset designed to help you eat better, feel better, and take back control of your health. So if you’re ready to seriously upgrade your nutrition and start feeling better in just 10 days, click here to learn more.
The Zweig Market Breadth Thrust has triggered for the 17th time in history. The previous 16 times have resulted in an S&P 500 average gain of 16.35% after 6 months and 23.78% after 12 months. The S&P 500 has NEVER been red after 6 months and 12 months following the trigger.
Real Investment Advice
Perplexity
2. Tesla Rallied Right Back to 200-Day Moving Average…
StockCharts
3. Kyle Bass on International Stocks
Kyle Bass
4. Bitcoin ETFs $2.9B Inflows
Bitcoin flows. “Last week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of 31,323 $BTC, equivalent to approximately $2.9 billion. In BTC terms, it was the fifth-largest weekly inflow on record. In dollar terms, it ranks even higher – the third-largest inflow.”
Glassnode
5. Container Bookings from China Falling
Vizion
6. Gold Short-Term Overbought
Daily Shot Brief
7. Total Weight of Top 10 Companies S&P 500…Rise Since 2017
The Irrelevant Investor
8. Plane Ticket Prices Flat for 15 Years
Sherwood
9. Top Colleges Are Too Costly Even for Parents Making $300,000
Many families earn too much to get meaningful aid but too little to cover tuition out of pocket.
Bloomberg
10. Win the Morning
Via The Daily Stoic: One of the most relatable moments in Meditations is Marcus Aurelius’s argument with himself at the beginning of Book 5. It’s a struggle he’s clearly faced many mornings—as have so many of us: He knows he must get out of bed, yet desperately wants to stay under the warm covers.
It’s relatable…but it’s also impressive. Marcus didn’t actually have to get out of bed. He didn’t really have to do anything. As emperor, he could do as he pleased. One of his predecessors, Tiberius, basically abandoned the throne for an exotic island. Marcus’s adopted great-grandfather Hadrian hardly spent any time in Rome at all. The emperor had all sorts of prerogatives, and here Marcus was insisting that he rise early and get to work.
Why? Because Marcus understood that winning the morning was essential to winning the day—and ultimately, life itself. Though he wouldn’t have known the phrase “the early bird gets the worm,” he grasped that a day well-begun is half done. By pushing himself to do something difficult, by committing to what he knew he was born to do and loved to do, Marcus set himself up for daily success (more on this in our How To Read Meditations guide, by the way).
This is a practice we must follow today and every day. We should rise early, without delay. We should nourish ourselves properly. We should maintain good habits. We should tackle our most important task first thing. By winning the morning, we reduce the power that the rest of the day—much of which lies beyond our control—holds over us.
