Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 November 06, 2025

1. ORCL Gives Back All of the Last Gap Up….-27% from Highs…New Debt to Equity Ratio 500%

StockCharts


2. Oracle 5-Year CDS Spike

Dave Lutz Jones Trading Oracle shares have soared 54% in 2025, set for their most powerful annual rally since 1999. Its AI-driven surge in revenue has made it one of Wall Street’s most valuable companies.  Yet a surge in its credit default swaps – a form of insurance against default for bondholders – shows investors are worried about the U.S. tech giant’s debt levels.


3. Big Tech Cash Flow is Still Stronger than Capex

The Irrelevant Investor


4. Robinhood Growth by Product

Fiscal.ai


5. Rare Earth ETF -20% from Highs..Closes Below 50-Day for First Time Since June

StockCharts


6. Big Level for U.S. Dollar DXY

Wolf Street Blog The DXY tracks the USD against the euro, yen, British Pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc.

Wolf Street


7. U.S. Financial Conditions Index

The Kobeissi Letter


8. Narco-sub carrying 1.7 tonnes of cocaine seized in Atlantic

James Gregory-BBC

The sub was located 1,000 nautical miles off the coast of Lisbon

Four people have been detained after Portuguese authorities intercepted a narco-sub carrying more than 1.7 tonnes of cocaine in the mid-Atlantic.

The semi-submersible vessel was bound for the Iberian peninsula and was seized in recent days, according to officials.

Footage shows the police and navy surrounding the vessel before boarding, seizing the Class A substance and arresting four crew members, who are said to be from South America.

The suspects, including two Ecuadorians, a Venezuelan and a Colombian, were remanded in pre-trial custody after their court appearance in the Azores on Tuesday, said police.

Vítor Ananias, head of Portugal’s police unit to combat drug trafficking, told a press conference that their different nationalities showed the organisation behind them was not just based in one country.

The Lisbon-based Maritime Analysis and Operations Centre (MAOC) said it had received information in recent days indicating that a criminal organisation was in the process of dispatching a submersible loaded with cocaine destined for Europe.

A few days later, a Portuguese ship successfully located the submersible approximately 1,000 nautical miles (1,852km) off the coast of Lisbon, in an operation backed by the UK’s National Crime Agency and the US Drug Enforcement Administration.

Having seized the vessel, the navy said it could not be towed back to shore due to poor weather and its fragile construction, and it later sank in the open sea.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm274lmg7m1o


9. Rising Law School Applications

Reuters


10. 7 Things Remarkably Happy People Do Often

Thomas Northcut—Getty Images

By Inc.

August 30, 2014 5:45 AM EDT

This post is in partnership with Inc., which offers useful advice, resources and insights to entrepreneurs and business owners. The article below was originally published at Inc.com.

By Jeff Haden

Happiness: everyone wants it, yet relatively few seem to get enough of it, especially those intheir early forties. (I’m no psychologist, but that’s probably about when many of us start thinking, “Wait; is this all there is?”)

Good news and bad news: unfortunately, approximately 50 percent of your happiness, your “happiness set-point,” is determined by personality traits that are largely hereditary. Half of how happy you feel is basically outside your control.

Bummer.

But, that means 50 percent of your level of happiness is totally within your control: relationships, health, career, etc. So even if you’re genetically disposed to be somewhat gloomy, you can still do things to make yourself a lot happier.

Like this:

1. Make good friends.

It’s easy to focus on building a professional network of partners, customers, employees, connections, etc, because there is (hopefully) a payoff.

But there’s a definite payoff to making real (not just professional or social media) friends. Increasing your number of friends correlates to higher subjective well being; doubling your number of friends is like increasing your income by 50 percent in terms of how happy you feel.

And if that’s not enough, people who don’t have strong social relationships are 50 percent less likely to survive at any given time than those who do. (That’s a scary thought for loners like me.)

Make friends outside of work. Make friends at work. Make friends everywhere.

Make real friends. You’ll live a longer, happier life.

2. Actively express thankfulness.

According to one study, couples that expressed gratitude in their interactions with each other resulted in increases in relationship connection and satisfaction the next day–both for the person expressing thankfulness and (no big surprise) for the person receiving it. (In fact, the authors of the study said gratitude was like a “booster shot” for relationships.)

Of course the same is true at work. Express gratitude for employee’s hard work and you both feel better about yourselves.

Another easy method is to write down a few things you are grateful for every night. One study showed people who wrote down 5 things they were thankful for once a week were 25 percent happier after ten weeks; in effect they dramatically increased their happiness set-point.

Happy people focus on what they have, not on what they don’t have. It’s motivating to want more in your career, relationships, bank account, etc. but thinking about what you alreadyhave, and expressing gratitude for it, will make you a lot happier.

And will remind you that even if you still have huge dreams you have already accomplished a lot–and should feel genuinely proud.

3. Actively pursue your goals.

Goals you don’t pursue aren’t goals, they’re dreams, and dreams only make you happy when you’re dreaming.

Pursuing goals, though, does make you happy. According to David Niven, author of 100 Simple Secrets of the Best Half of Life, “People who could identify a goal they were pursuing(my italics) were 19% more likely to feel satisfied with their lives and 26 percent more likely to feel positive about themselves.”

So be grateful for what you have… then actively try to achieve more. If you’re pursuing a huge goal, make sure that every time you take a small step closer to achieving it you pat yourself on the back.

But don’t compare where you are now to where you someday hope to be. Compare where you are now to where you were a few days ago. Then you’ll get dozens of bite-sized chunks of fulfillment–and a never-ending supply of things to be thankful for.

4. Do what you excel at as often as you can.

You know the old cliché regarding the starving yet happy artist? Turns out it’s true: artists are considerably more satisfied with their work than non-artists–even though the pay tends to be considerably lower than in other skilled fields.

Why? I’m no researcher, but clearly the more you enjoy what you do and the more fulfilled you feel by what you do the happier you will be.

In The Happiness Advantage, Shawn Anchor says that when volunteers picked, “…one of their signature strengths and used it in a new way each day for a week, they became significantly happier and less depressed.”

Of course it’s unreasonable to think you can chuck it all and simply do what you love. But you can find ways to do more of what you excel at. Delegate. Outsource. Start to shift the products and services you provide into areas that allow you to bring more of your strengths to bear. If you’re a great trainer, find ways to train more people. If you’re a great salesperson, find ways to streamline your admin tasks and get in front of more customers.

Everyone has at least a few things they do incredibly well. Find ways to do those things more often. You’ll be a lot happier.

And probably a lot more successful.

5. Give.

While giving is usually considered to be unselfish, giving can also be more beneficial for the giver than the receiver. Providing social support may be more beneficial than receiving it.

Intuitively I think we all knew that because it feels awesome to help someone who needs it. Not only is helping those in need fulfilling, it’s also a reminder of how comparatively fortunate we are–which is a nice reminder of how thankful we should be for what we already have.

Plus, receiving is something you cannot control. If you need help–or simply want help–you can’t make others help you. But you can always control whether you offer and provide help.

And that means you can always control, at least to a degree, how happy you are–because giving makes you happier.

6. Don’t single-mindedly chase “stuff.”

Money is important. Money does a lot of things. (One of the most important is to create choices.)

But after a certain point, money doesn’t make people happier. After about $75,000 a year,money doesn’t buy more (or less) happiness. “Beyond $75,000… higher income is neither the road to experience happiness nor the road to relief of unhappiness or stress,” say the authors of that study.

“Perhaps $75,000 is the threshold beyond which further increases in income no longer improve individuals’ ability to do what matters most to their emotional well-being, such as spending time with people they like, avoiding pain and disease, and enjoying leisure.”

And if you don’t buy that, here’s another take: “The materialistic drive and satisfaction with life are negatively related.” Or, in layman’s terms, “Chasing possessions tends to make you less happy.”

Think of it as the bigger house syndrome. You want a bigger house. You need a bigger house. (Not really, but it sure feels like you do.) So you buy it. Life is good… until a couple months later when your bigger house is now just your house.

New always becomes the new normal.

“Things” only provide momentary bursts of happiness. To be happier, don’t chase as many things. Chase a few experiences intead.

7. Live the life you want to live.

Bonnie Ware worked in palliative care, spending time with patients who had only a few months to live. Their most common regret was, “I wish I’d had the courage to live a life true to myself, not the life others expected of me.”

What other people think–especially people you don’t even know–doesn’t matter. What other people want you to do doesn’t mater.

Your hopes, your dreams, your goals… live your life your way. Surround yourself with people who support and care not for the “you” they want you to be but for the real you.

Make choices that are right for you. Say things you really want to say to the people who most need to hear them. Express your feelings. Stop and smell a few roses. Make friends, and stay in touch with them.

And most of all, realize that happiness is a choice. 50 percent of how happy you are lies within your control, so start doing more things that will make you happier.

https://time.com/3225614/things-happy-people-do

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 November 05, 2025

1. Mag 7 Call Options at FOMO Levels

ZeroHedge


2. Chinese Chipmakers Higher P/E Ratios than U.S.


3. Biotech Long Bear Changing?   +46% Off Liberation Day Lows…Breaks Above 3-Year Pattern

StockCharts


4. Investment Grade Credit ETF Closes Below 50-Day First Time Since May

StockCharts


5. Bitcoin IBIT -20% from Highs….Closes Below 200 Day First Time Since April

StockCharts


6. Microstrategy Pulls Back to March/April Lows.  Down -45% from Highs

StockCharts


7. Good News P/E Ratios Adjusted for Profitability Are Much Lower than 1999-2000

Profitability-adjusted valuation. “Anyone comparing today’s valuations to the Dotcom era on a basic P/E basis is missing the point … higher profitability demands a higher valuation premium. Using our profitability-adjusted model, today’s P/E comes out to 17.75x — less than one standard deviation above its 20-year average of 16.2x.”

Duality Research


8. Tesla European Registrations Down -50-90%

Semafor


9. How to Eat 12 Servings of Vegetables a Day

Mark Hyman, MD 

Co-Founder & Chief Medical Officer of Function Health

 12-a-Day: A Meal-by-Meal Guide

To get to 12+ daily veggie servings—or 6+ cups— think of vegetables as the foundation of each meal.

Try to include at least 1 to 2 cups of veggies for each of your main meals and another cup for a snack.

Do that and you’ll reach 6+ cups by day’s end.

Use the following meal-by-meal ideas for inspiration.

Breakfast

By sneaking greens and chopped veggies into smoothies and egg dishes, you can check off three or more veggie servings by the end of your morning meal.

  • Veggie-loaded smoothie: Blend 1 cup packed greens,  ½ a cucumber, and half a zucchini with 1 cup unsweetened almond or coconut milk, ½ an avocado, the juice of half a lemon, one tablespoon chia seeds, ¼ cup frozen berries, and one scoop protein powder.
  • Veggie-loaded egg scramble: Chop a total of one cup of mushrooms, bell peppers, and onions. Sauté these with a cup of chopped greens. Once they’ve softened and reduced in size, mix in two pasture-raised eggs. Serve with lightly dressed greens on the side.

Lunch & Dinner

Turn lunch and dinner into a percentages game.

  • Cover 75% of your plate with vegetables. For instance, I enjoy preparing three vegetable dishes for every meal. So, on a dinner plate, I might include a steamed artichoke, a tossed salad, and sautéed broccolini.
  • Sneak more veggies into the remaining 25%. Look for ways to sneak finely chopped or pureed veggies into the meals you already make. Use spiralized zucchini as a substitute for pasta. Add veggies to stir-fried tofu, beef, or chicken. Wrap ground chicken in lettuce. Top chicken or fish with sauteed mushrooms, onions, and greens. Mix chopped veggies into meatballs, meatloaf, and burgers.

To follow the 75/25 rule, try the following:

  • The Big Salad: Cover a dinner plate with a cup or more of your favorite greens. Mix a cup or more of your favorite chopped vegetables, along with a handful of sprouts. Include a sprinkle of sesame seeds for some crunch. Top with leftovers, roasted veggies, or cooked chicken, salmon, or another protein.
  • The Veggie Bowl: Use a cup of greens as your base. Add a cup or more of roasted or steamed veggies of your choice. Great options include Brussels sprouts, zucchini, and cauliflower. Top with a half cup of crunchy veggies like shredded carrots or sliced radishes. Sprinkle on your favorite herbs. Then top it off with chicken, salmon, or beef.
  • Soup, Stews, and Chili: Mix pureed greens, carrots, zucchini, or cauliflower into chicken or vegetable stock for your base. Then add chopped onions, garlic, peppers, celery, and other veggies. Greens disintegrate into soup. Experiment by adding handful after handful. Then fill out the soup with your favorite protein.

Snack

Net two+ servings by munching on a cup or more of pre-cut veggies — think bell peppers, cucumbers, and carrots—dipped in hummus. Here are some of favorite homemade versions:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-eat-12-servings-vegetables-day-mark-hyman-md-lc6wc/?trackingId=WFkL6HjLCn7cTpaTodcTiw%3D%3D


10. “I’ve got your back”-Seth’s Blog

This is not a promise to be made lightly.

It’s not, “I’ve got your back until it becomes difficult or inconvenient for me.”

It puts us on the hook, without exception.

This is a powerful promise, a commitment that can change the life of both parties. Don’t do it lightly, but do it. It’s worth it.

https://seths.blog

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 November 04, 2025

1. Record Profit Margins S&P

Kantro


2. Tech Sector Even Bigger Record Profit Margins

The Kobeissi Letter


3. Big Tech Moves from Asset Lite to Asset Heavy-Prof G

Today, Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet each invest a larger share of revenue in capex than the average global utility.

Prof G Market


4. 2x Microstrategy ETF MSTU $31 highs to $3…Down -65% Year to Date

StockCharts


5. YouTube vs. Netflix Share of Streaming

Howie Town


6. Restaurant Stocks Back to Liberation Day Lows—EATZ ETF

StockCharts


7. Rate Cut Odds

ZeroHedge


8. Homebuilders ETF XHB Never Made New Highs

StockCharts


9. Undersupply of Housing vs. 1960

Samuel Harnisch


10. 20 Subtle Signs That You’re Stressed Out

Signs of Stress- Alice Boyes Ph.D.

Expect you’ll relate to some of these and not at all relate to others. As you read, consider grabbing a piece of paper and jotting down the numbers beside any that ring true for you.

  1. You’re forgetful—perhaps you don’t make your list when you go shopping, or you leave your keys in your door after unlocking it.
  2. A noise you could usually tune out bothers you and makes it hard to concentrate.
  3. You don’t take your daily medications or vitamins.
  4. You choose to eat food that’s very easy to consume, like potato chips, rather than food that requires cutting and chewing.
  5. You put off tasks that would take under five minutes.
  6. You double-handle things—for example, you read an email that only needs a two-sentence reply, but you decide you’ll reply later, or you open a check but put it in a pile to deal with later rather than e-depositing it straight away.
  7. You endure physical discomfort unnecessarily, such as your heels being cracked, but instead of putting lotion on them, you put up with them hurting.
  8. You avoid accessing customer service, such as, you would like to call to ask for your internet bill to be lowered, but making the call feels like too much. Or, you don’t return an item that’s the wrong fit and keep it regardless.
  9. Fun does not seem fun; playing a game with your child, for instance, feels like a hassle.
  10. Your refrigerator ends up full of expired items or fruits and vegetables that have gone bad because you didn’t get around to eating them.
  11. You feel jumpy—perhaps when driving, cars changing lanes around you feel anxiety-provoking.
  12. Cognitive tasks, like judging distance when crossing the road, seem to take more energy than usual.
  13. You’re disorganized—for instance, you almost run out of gas, or you’re inefficient in the ways you run errands.
  14. You buy food that’s easy to consume (e.g., ice cream) and plan to consume a regular portion, but eat more than you planned.
  15. You put off committing to plans for no good reason.
  16. You feel slighted or misunderstood much more easily than usual. You personalize events and interactions more.
  17. You act against your values—e.g., throwing a recyclable container in the garbage because you can’t be bothered washing it out.
  18. You use self-criticism to try to motivate yourself to do better.
  19. You have a strong urge to reduce overstimulation; perhaps you dream of spending a day in bed watching TV with the curtains closed.
  20. Even when other people try to support you, it feels like they never get it right enough. You still feel slightly irritated, even when people’s intentions are good.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/in-practice/202108/20-subtle-signs-that-youre-stressed-out

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 30, 2025

1. The S&P has Hit 40+ Record Highs This Year..What Happens Next?

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright In yesterday’s trading, the S&P 500 (SPX) reached a new all-time high for the 43rd time in 2025. While this is an impressive feat, it still puts the index behind last year’s pace when it notched 51 record highs by the end of October, on its way to 62 high watermarks for the year. With the S&P possibly on track to hitting 50 records in back-to-back years, we were reminded of an article published in Bloomberg around this time in 2023, the first year in a decade that S&P didn’t reach a new all-time high.


2. Yesterday’s Top 10 Had Record Foreign Holdings of U.S. Stocks….Foreign Holdings of U.S. Overall Assets are Surging.

Source: Isabelnet


3. Equal Weight Underperforming Market Cap Weighted by Biggest Margin Ever

Barchart


4. CSCO Max Market Cap 1999 vs. NVDA 2025

Michael J. Kramer


5. In One Day…..Fiserv Gave Back All Stock Gains Going Back to 2016

Google Finance


6. 10-Year Treasury Yield Trending Back Up

CNBC


7. The Era of Negative Bonds Yields is Officially Over

The Kobeissi Letter


8. CNN Fear and Greed Index is in Fear

CNN


9. Healthcare Premiums for Average U.S. Family


10. Beep. Boop. Busted. Here’s how math nerds caught the NBA’s Terry Rozier

Dian ZhangIgnacio Calderon

USA TODAY

The numbers did not compute.

Even before Terry Rozier dropped out of the 2023 NBA game in which he’s accused of rigging his statistics, computers at an “integrity monitor” firm flagged a flood of bets that did not match a mathematical model of how this game should go. The company, now called IC360, alerted the NBA and sportsbooks about the unusual bets coming in on Rozier’s performance.

The investigation that led to the arrest of the Miami Heat point guard and dozens of others for illegal gambling started with math. It ended Oct. 23 with Rozier charged with manipulating his performance in that 2023 game so that gamblers in the know could win tens of thousands of dollars.

Beep. Boop. Busted.

Federal authorities allege more than $200,000 poured in betting that Rozier would turn in a below-average performance in that game after Rozier told another defendant he would drop out of the game early with an injury. Rozier played 9 minutes, 34 seconds for the Charlotte Hornets in the game against the New Orleans Pelicans before leaving with an injury and finished under his usual totals for points, assists and 3-pointers.

Earlier this year, similar mathematical models flagged unusual betting on individual pitches thrown by Cleveland Guardians pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Louis Ortiz. Both were placed on indefinite leave.

How do you use math to catch a cheater? 

Detection starts with prediction. 

“When you do the odds compiling, you have a predicted model for how you expect the game to go,” said Chris Rasmussen, who teaches sports integrity at the University of New Haven and has spent years investigating sports betting fraud for the World Lotteries Association.

Based on the data behind the teams and players in the game, the model expects certain points for those players and predicts “expected behaviors.” When real-world betting behavior starts to deviate from the model’s prediction, that’s when “we are starting to look,” Rasmussen explained. “Why does it deviate, and how much does it deviate, and what’s going on?”

Bookmakers, the businesses or platforms that take bets on sporting events, often work with integrity monitors like IC360 that analyze sports and betting data across the market and flag unusual activity.

“It’s not necessarily the sportsbook’s job to prove cheating,” said Frank DiGiacomo, an attorney who practices law in gaming, sports betting, and lottery. “Their obligation is to flag a situation and report it.” Then, state regulators could launch investigations with law enforcement.

The monitoring model analyzes expected behavior and tracks outliers, numbers outside the expected range, whether they come from events in the game itself or from people placing unexpected bets on it. Then the model signals when it detects something more than luck at work.

A new account placing a maximum bet immediately raises red flags. “That’s really weird,” Rasmussen said. A new bettor would probably place $10, $15 or $20 in a new account, he said, not thousands of dollars.

Similarly, if an existing account that typically bets $50 on certain games suddenly places a $1,000 bet, that outlier behavior could trigger an investigation.

“Of course, you can be lucky one time,” Rasmussen said. “But if you keep being lucky, there’s probably something in it.”

How hard is it to catch cheaters?

Since the Supreme Court overturned the federal ban on sports betting in 2018, 39 states plus Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico have legalized some form of sports gambling.

With hundreds of thousands of bookmakers today, Rasmussen said cheating in sports betting is harder to catch because there are more betting opportunities. While bettors once could only bet on major games, they can now bet on games from college sports to eSports, and there are more ways to hide.  

“The criminals are working 24/7,” he said, “and we in law enforcement and so on are working … not the same as the criminals.

Rasmussen emphasized the importance of human monitors to identify cheating, even though algorithms and artificial intelligence can process vast amounts of data. 

“You still need a human behind,” he said. “You really need to understand the betting market… You need to understand what prop bets, the handicap, and so on mean, and you need to understand that there’s also the local aspect… There’s a difference from Chicago to LA to New York.”

Prop bets, which stand for proposition bets, allow bettors to wager on specific events or outcomes within a game rather than the final result—betting on who scores first, for example. Or whether Terry Rozier performs under his average stats. Or whether Louis Ortiz will throw an outside slider.

To DiGiacomo, the sports betting lawyer, a “fundamental trust that the games are fair and results are fair” is the core of the sports betting industry.

“Otherwise, people will not bet if they think the match is rigged,” he said.

If a gaming operator fails to notify a regulator, the consequences can be warnings, fines, and ultimately losing their license. “Licenses are their lifeblood, so operators take that seriously,” DiGiacomo said.

The same goes for players, but the consequences can be severe and career-ending. Given the salaries professional athletes could earn today, “losing years or perhaps being banned from a sport is a significant financial penalty, probably, I would assume, more significant than what they could win on a bet,” he added.

With Rozier’s arrest making headlines, athletes “will certainly, or should certainly” know that they’re not going to be able to get away with the regulated sports betting system, DiGiacomo warned.

“It’s a sad day for sports and for sports betting,” he said. “But I would say, this is the system working.” https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2025/10/24/nba-rozier-betting-cheating-math-monitors/86857550007/

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 29, 2025

1. Cutting Interest Rates Near All-Time Highs Bullish

Ryan Detrick


2. Allocations to Gold Still Low

Gold Market Chartbook


3. Amazon Cutting 30,000 Corporate Jobs in Biggest Layoff Ever…The Stock Never Got Above 2024 Highs

StockCharts


4. NFLX Chart -20% from Highs…About to Close Below 50day for the First Time Since 2023

StockCharts


5. U.S. Announces Financial Backing of Nuclear $80B to Start …One Chart Tells Why

ZeroHedge


6. URA Uranium ETF Still Below Earlier 2025 Highs

StockCharts


7. Mag 7 Chinese Revenue Exposure

The Irrelevant Investor


8. Foreign Investors Love U.S


9. Child Social Media Bans Gaining Momentum

Statista


10. 900,000 vs 9-Seth’s Blog

It takes about 900,000 minutes to become a board-certified dermatologist. At that point, you might be very skilled and well-informed.

It takes less than nine minutes to make your patient feel seen, understood and reassured.

If you skip the 9 minutes, you wasted the 900,000. https://seths.blog/