Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 January 7, 2025

1. History of Bitcoin Transaction Volume

From the Zerohedge blog


2. War on Two Fronts…New Stock Market Highs

Via allstarcharts


3. Widest Valuation Gap in History….U.S. vs International

Via Charlie Biello


4. Quarter-Over-Quarter EV Deliveries

Via Yahoo


5. Yankees vs. S&P: 1973-2024

Via Bespoke Investment Group


6. PLUG Power is +44% YTD

Plug Power (PLUG) shares surged for a second straight session after the Treasury Department announced final rules on tax credits for producing clean hydrogen.

The tax credits were made available through the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. The Treasury Department noted in its statement Friday that the rules underwent “significant changes and flexibilities that address several key issues to help grow the industry and move projects forward,” while adhering to the emissions requirements included in the act.1

Officials explained that the changes “clarify how producers of hydrogen, including those using electricity from various sources, natural gas with carbon capture, renewable natural gas (RNG), and coal mine methane can determine eligibility for the credit.”

Via Investopedia


7. 30-Year Mortgage Trending Back Toward 7%

Source: FRED


8. Where the U.S. Gets Enriched Uranium

Via Zerohedge Blog


9. The Female vs. Male Bachelor Degree Gap is Widening


10. This Money Bias is the Biggest Barrier to Building Wealth

Via CNBCIt’s officially the time of year when you get around to that thing you’ve been putting off. And for millions of Americans, that means coming to grips with their finances.

If you’ve been avoiding funding your 401(k) or opening a brokerage account, you’re not alone. Nearly half of U.S. adults — 48% — report owning no investable assets, according to a 2024 survey from Janus Henderson.

And for many, the reasoning behind the procrastination is simple: Investing is (seemingly) too complex.

It’s a pattern of thinking that, if not overcome, could cripple many young people financially, says Amos Nadler, founder of Prof of Wall Street and a Ph.D. in behavioral finance and neuroeconomics.

“It’s a bias that we call ‘complexity aversion,’” he says. “And it’s the biggest barrier to building wealth for people who are not in markets or who have never invested before.”

Here’s how this cognitive bias could be costing you money.

The importance of overcoming complexity aversion

On a very basic level, people who put off doing essential financial tasks have the same fears as those who can’t bring themselves to start an exercise routine — they don’t want to make a mistake or feel foolish.

Just as someone might say they don’t know the first thing about how all that fancy gym equipment works, a financially avoidant person might say, ”‘Man, this is over my head,’” says Nadler. ”‘I’m just not a numbers person.’”

Feeling this way about money is tied closely with another common cognitive bias known as risk aversion. Essentially, not only are you afraid you’ll screw up, but you fear that you’ll lose out on money you put time and effort into accumulating. And because fear of losing what you have can outweigh the joy of building wealth, you stay put.

The impulse is, “I’ve worked hard for it, and I’m risk averse. I’d rather just have the cash,” Nadler says. “I know inflation is eating away at my cash, but the market so volatile, so I’m scared.”

But the need to start investing — especially among young people — extends beyond the need for your money to keep up with inflation. By procrastinating on this particular financial project, you’re losing what many experts call your most valuable asset: time.

The longer you’re in the market, the more time your money has to grow at a compounding rate. For every year you delay getting started in the market, you potentially shave thousands of dollars off your future net worth.

Play around with an online compounding interest calculator, and you’ll likely discover that sitting on the sidelines for even a few years can have a massive effect on your long-term gains.

Consider a 20-year-old who invests $200 a month into a retirement portfolio that earns an annualized total return of 8%. By the time she’s ready to retire at age 67, she’ll have $1.25 million saved. If she starts at age 25, with all other conditions the same, her total drops to about $830,000. And if she puts things off until age 30, she’d retire with $547,000.

How to move past complexity aversion

So, how do you get started? You could always open a brokerage account or self-fund a retirement account, such as an IRA. Doing so requires just a few easy steps.

But if your employer offers a workplace retirement account, such as a 401(k), opting in may be an even easier way to get started. Designate a percentage of your salary to contribute to the account out of each paycheck and select one or more mutual funds for your portfolio.

These plans commonly hold low-cost, highly diversified options, such as index and target-date funds, which give investors exposure to large swaths of the market.

Via the Farnum Street blog

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 January 6, 2025

1. The S&P After Back-to-Back 20% Years


2. Interest Rates…30-Year Rate Highest Since November 2023

Via Bloomberg


3. Biggest Holders of Bitcoin

Via The Irrelevant Investor


4. GLP-1 Users Are Buying Fewer Snacks

Via Ritholtz


5. Updated Buffett Indicator

Via Advisor Perspectives’ blog


6. 2020s: 5 Years of Big Moves

Via Ben Carlson’s blog


7. U.S. Foreign Aid Accounts for About 1% of Federal Budget


8. AI and Gambling

Fear and coding in Las Vegas–Inside the gambling industry’s big bet on AI.

Via Business Insider: Narrativa is among a crop of startups seizing on the artificial intelligence boom to enthusiastically automate writing tasks that would once have fallen to humans. From penning regulatory documentation for Pfizer to zhuzhing up marketing copy for insurance and e-commerce firms and helping generate breaking news articles for The Wall Street Journal, the Los Angeles-based Narrativa boasts roughly 50 clients in various industries. But one of its core focus areas, comprising a quarter of its business, is a little more polarizing than the rest: gambling.

Working with major industry players like 888 and Betway, Narrativa uses large language models to pump out everything from automated summaries of sports games to SEO-friendly reviews of online casino games and promotional social media posts. With no humans required, the 20-person company’s AI tools produce 10 million words a month for gambling clients — the effective output of 170-odd full-time writers producing a grueling 3,000 words a day. It’s all in service of enticing gamblers to place more bets.

“You want to create a community, you want people coming back for more,” Matthew Rector, Narrativa’s vice president of content, says. “You want to foster that environment, and our content helps facilitate that.”

Sam Altman, Elon Musk, Satya Nadella, and the tech industry’s other top impresarios talk a big game about how AI may one day attain sentience, solve the climate crisis, and lead society to a post-scarcity economy. Today, though, the technology is being embraced by traditional industries for more prosaic — and mercenary — aims. Key among them is the gambling industry, which is rapidly adopting AI for everything from writing alluring online marketing copy to identifying and helping problem gamblers to tracking people and perfecting the physical layout of casinos.  The ultimate goal: to harvest ever more money from gamblers, by profiling them, feeding them content and games personalized to their whims, and cajoling them to stay longer and make bigger bets.


9. Baby Boom: 2600 Indians Born Per Minute


10. Strategies for Wealth & Happiness

Alan Watts on applying yay one thinking to yourself:

“You are under no obligation to be the same person you were five minutes ago.”
*
Charlie Munger on preparation:

“Neither Warren nor I are smart enough to make decisions with no time to think. We make actual decisions very rapidly, but that’s because we have spent so much time preparing ourselves by quietly reading.”
***
Jim Rohn on failure:

“Failure is rarely the result of some isolated event. Rather, it is a consequence of a long list of accumulated little failures which happen as a result of too little discipline. Failure occurs each time we fail to think … today, act … today, care, strive, climb, learn, or just keep going … today. If your goal requires that today you write ten letters and you write only three, you are behind by seven letters … today. If you commit yourself to making five phone calls and you make only one, you are behind by four phone calls … today. If your financial plan requires that you save ten dollars and you save none, you are behind ten dollars … today. The danger comes when we look at a day squandered and conclude that no harm has been done. After all, it was just one day. But add up these days to make a year and then add up these years to make a lifetime and perhaps you can now see how repeating today’s small failures can easily turn your life into a major disaster.”

Via the Farnum Street blog

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 January 3, 2025

1. Bond Market Drawdown is the Longest in American History


2. MSTR: Down -22% in One Month


3. Natural Gas Breaks Above 2-year Sideways Pattern


4. South Korea is Heading Toward 2022 Levels


5. Vanguard REIT Index Sitting on 200-Day


6. Corporate Net Interest Payments Near Record-Low Levels

Torston Slok Apollo


7. Carvana -37% from Highs Per New Hindenburg Research Short Report

BABA ran up 50% starting in September, but gave it all back.


8. Tesla Sales Drop Year-Over-Year for First Time in a Decade


9. Office Sector CMBS Debt Now Above 2008

Via Wolf Street Blog


10. Optimism by Country for 2025

Food for Thought from The Visual Capitalist

Via The Visual Capitalist

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 January 2, 2025

1. Speculative Options Back to 2021 Highs

Speculative option volume. Speculative option volume is approaching peak 2021 levels.


2. Leverage Bull Funds 100x vs. Bear Funds


3. Top 20 Most Clicked Stocks and ETFs 2024

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright


4. S&P Value Trading Back to 200-Day


5. Transports -12% from Highs..Back to 200 Day


6. India ETF

50day thru 200day to downside


7. Alibaba Gives Up All Its Fall Rally

BABA ran up 50% starting in September, but gave it all back.


8. Chinese Company Owns 65% of U.S. Market for Home Routers


9. Last Madoff victim fund payout brings recovery to nearly 94% of Ponzi scheme losses, DOJ says

Dan Mangan@_DanMangan
Key Points

  • The final distribution from a fund for victims of the fraudster Bernie Madoff began Monday, the Department of Justice said.
  • When the last disbursement is completed, more than $4.3 billion will have been distributed by the fund to more than 40,000 victims in nearly 130 countries, the DOJ said.

Madoff died in prison in 2021 while serving a 150-year sentence for what federal prosecutors have called the largest Ponzi scheme in the world.

The 10th and final distribution from a fund for victims of the late Ponzi scheme king Bernie Madoff began Monday, the Department of Justice said.

The last disbursement, of more than $131 million, is being sent to more than 23,000 victims worldwide. When it is completed, more than $4.3 billion will have been distributed by the fund to more than 40,000 victims in nearly 130 countries, the DOJ said.

That tally is nearly 94% of the estimated total losses from the scam, the department said.
The final disbursement by the Madoff Victim Fund was announced roughly 16 years after Madoff’s fraud came to light.

“Today’s distribution represents an unprecedented conclusion of victim compensation from civil forfeiture actions related to the Madoff scheme,” said James Dennehy, FBI New York Field Office assistant director in charge.

“These victims implicitly trusted Madoff with their investments only to ultimately lose significant monies to his selfish plan,” Dennehy said.

Madoff, who was head of Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities in New York, pleaded guilty in March 2009 to 11 felonies related to what federal prosecutors have said was the largest Ponzi scheme in the world.

Madoff was sentenced to 150 years in prison for the fraud, which spanned four decades and involved him paying off customers with money raised from other customers, not with investment trading gains as he claimed.

He died in April 2021, at age 82, at a federal prison facility in North Carolina, nearly a year after he was denied a request for compassionate release due to a terminal kidney disease.

When Madoff’s fraud first became publicly known, prosecutors estimated the total loss at $65 billion. But that estimate sharply dropped once authorities subtracted the amount of phantom investment gains and interest that Madoff’s customers were duped into believing existed.

The largest portion of the fund for Madoff’s victims, about $2.2 billion, came from a civil forfeiture recovery from the estate of Jeffry Picower, a now-dead Madoff investor, the DOJ said.

Another $1.7 billion came from JPMorgan Chase as part of a deferred prosecution agreement with the DOJ in
January 2014. JPMorgan Chase and its predecessor institutions had served as the primary bank through which Madoff operated his scheme, the DOJ has previously said.

The rest of the victims fund came from a “civil forfeiture action against investor Carl Shapiro and his family and from civil and criminal forfeiture actions against Bernard L. Madoff, Peter B. Madoff, and their co-conspirators,” the DOJ said Monday.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/30/bernie-madoff-victim-fund-ponzi-scheme-doj.html


10. Income Needed by State to Join Top 1%

 

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 December 30, 2024

1. XLE Energy ETF -12% One Month…Negative Year to Date


2. Gold ETF vs. Bond ETF 2024


3. Small Cap Profitability Problem


4. Small Caps Now Hit 4-Year Losing Streak

The Daily Shot Brief
Small vs. large performance. “Small caps are on a four-year losing streak and having their worst year relative to the S&P 500 since 1998.”


5. MOVE Index Measuring Bond Volatility Drops to 3-Year Low


6. 401 K Assets in USA Hitting $8T


7. The Under $300k Home is Disappearing


8. Fed Cuts and Mortgage Rates Go Higher

Mortgage Rates Must Go Down When The Fed Cuts Rates


9. Brazil shuts BYD factory site over ‘slavery’ conditions

BBC Annabelle Liang-The BYD Yuan Pro electric vehicle
Brazilian authorities have halted the construction of a factory for Chinese electric vehicle (EV) giant BYD, saying workers lived in conditions comparable to “slavery”.
More than 160 workers have been rescued in Brazil’s northeastern state of Bahia, according to a statement from the Public Labour Prosecutor’s Office (MPT).
They were allegedly put in a “degrading” environment and had their passports and salaries withheld by a building company.
BYD said in a statement that it had cut ties with the firm involved and remained committed to a “full compliance with Brazilian legislation”.
The factory was scheduled to be operational by March 2025, and was set to be BYD’s first EV plant outside of Asia.
The workers, hired by Jinjiang Construction Brazil, lived in four facilities in Camaçari city.
At one such facility, workers were made to sleep on beds without mattresses, according to prosecutors.
Each bathroom was also shared among 31 workers, forcing them to get up extremely early to be ready for work.
“The conditions found in the lodgings revealed an alarming picture of precariousness and degradation,” the MPT said.
“Slavery-like conditions”, as defined by Brazilian law, include debt bondage and work that violates human dignity.
The MPT added that the situation also constitutes “forced labour”, as many workers had their wages withheld and faced excessive costs for terminating their contracts.
BYD said affected workers had been moved to hotels.
It added that it had conducted a “detailed review” of the working and living conditions for subcontracted employees and asked on “several occasions” for the construction firm to make improvements.
The living conditions of some workers constructing BYD’s factory in Brazil
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8xj9jp57r2o


10. $12B Food Stamps Money Goes to Soda