Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 December 12, 2025

1. Oil at Parity with Silver for the First Time Since 1980

Marketwatch This chart from Bank of America notes that oil is at parity with silver (actually, a little below) for the first time in 1980.

Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett, framed it as a reaction to global bond market turmoil — the Austrian 100-year bond has collapsed — while the Trump administration has made clear it doesn’t want Treasury yields to get too high. “Productivity jump = boom & lower yields, otherwise square circled by much weaker US dollar…why silver hit parity vs oil for 1st time since 1980,” he wrote.

Steve Goldstein

MarketWatch


2. Inflation Swaps Not Worried About Tariffs

Inflation swaps. “Market signals suggest that concern about rising inflation, and in particular the impact of tariffs, has almost evaporated … The market thinks the one-time price effect of the tariffs will be over a year from now. Market and Fed seem to agree that inflation has been tamed.”

Daily Chartbook

What are Inflation Swaps?

Perplexity


3. Mexico Approves Tariffs on Asian Imports

TARIFF LADY– Mexican lawmakers gave final approval for new tariffs on Asian imports, broadly aligning with US efforts to tighten trade barriers against China, as President Claudia Sheinbaum seeks to protect local industry.  Mexico’s Senate on Wednesday voted in favor of the bill that imposes tariffs of between 5% and 50% on more than 1,400 products from Asian nations that don’t have a trade deal with Mexico. The bill passed with 76 votes in favor, five against and 35 abstentions.

The new levies will take effect starting next year and hit a wide range of products from clothing to metals and auto parts, with the massive output of Chinese factories emerging as the legislation’s focus.  While Sheinbaum  Dave Lutz Jones Trading


4. ORCL Free Cash Flow Chart-Irrelevant Investor

The Irrelevant Investor


5. ORCL Traded Right Back Down to Recent Lows

StockCharts


6. Cannabis stocks surge on reports Trump will reclassify marijuana; Tilray jumps 33%

CNBC


7. Disney Chose To Embrace AI …Stock Negative -35% 5-Year Chart

The Walt Disney Company and OpenAI reach landmark agreement to bring beloved characters from across Disney’s brands to Sora

https://openai.com/index/disney-sora-agreement

Google Finance


8. Savings Rate by Income

MarketWatch


9. Do Your Own Research to Check these Stats

Gaming The System: Huge Proportion Of ‘Elite’ University Students Claiming Disabilities

by Tyler Durden  Just when you thought the ongoing cultivation of weakness in American youth couldn’t get much worse, huge proportions of the student bodies at US universities are enrolling with official disability designations that bestow various accommodations upon the students who claim them. As you may have expected, the alarming trend is most pronounced at what are supposed to be the most “elite” institutions. 

We’re not talking about people in wheelchairs, but rather students snagging diagnoses for ADHD, anxiety and depression from indulgent doctors. “It’s rich kids getting extra time on tests,” an un-tenured professor at a selective university told The Atlantic‘s Rose Horowitch. Apparently fearing backlash, he requested anonymity. 

The numbers are jarring. Harvard and Brown’s undergraduate student body is 20% “disabled.” Amherst has hit 34%, while Stanford’s disability rate is a head-shaking 38%. At one unidentified law school, 45% of students have been awarded academic accommodations. In stark contrast, only 3 to 4% of students at public two-year colleges get disability accommodations. 

“Obviously, something is off here,” observes Emma Camp at Reason. “The idea that some of the most elite, selective universities in America—schools that require 99th percentile SATs and sterling essays—would be educating large numbers of genuinely learning disabled students is clearly bogus.”

Disabled students are often given time-and-a-half or double-time to finish a test, and the freedom to turn in papers well beyond the given due date. However, extra time isn’t the only benefit. At Carnegie-Mellon, a social-anxiety disorder can ensure a student isn’t called upon by a professor without advance notice.

Schools also let supposedly learning-disabled students take tests in “reduced distraction testing environments,” as being in a room with 80 other people is apparently just too taxing for them. However, a University of Chicago professor told the Atlantic that a deluge of students taking tests in the “reduced distraction testing environments” means those rooms are pretty much as “distracting” as a conventional classroom supposedly is.   

In what may be the most darkly amusing accommodation, a public college in California allowed a student to bring her mother to class — which backfired when the mother went beyond whatever role she was expected to play and eagerly participated in the discussions, tuition-free.  

Professor Paul Graham Fisher, who’d previously co-chaired Stanford’s disability task force, told the Atlantic:   

“I have had conversations with people in the Stanford administration. They’ve talked about at what point can we say no? What if it hits 50 or 60 percent? At what point do you just say ‘We can’t do this’?”

Plenty of these students are likely motivated by a cut-throat desire to gain advantage. However, equally bad, it’s possible a majority of these students sincerely consider themselves disabled. “Over the past few years, there’s been a rising push to see mental health and neurodevelopmental conditions as not just a medical fact, but an identity marker,” writes Reason’s Camp, who notes that social media and other factors foster a rush to attribute common human fallibilities as some kind of medical condition. “The result is a deeply distorted view of ‘normal,'” says Camp. “If ever struggling to focus or experiencing boredom is a sign you have ADHD, the implication is that a ‘normal,’ nondisabled person has essentially no problems.” 

The disability rush isn’t limited to elite college campuses. High school students are using disability designations to score extra time on SAT and ACT tests. “We are also well aware of fliers in the district circulating among parents of doctors in the area who are known to hand out ADHD diagnoses,” a high school teacher at an affluent public school told We Are Teachers. “In some cases, I think what’s happening is a pay-to-play situation.”

And the decline of the West proceeds apace…

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/gaming-system-huge-proportion-elite-university-students-claiming-disabilities


10. The 9 Habits of Self-Improvement

Hagen Growth

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 December 11, 2025

1. Aggregate Net Asset Value of Bitcoin-Treasury Companies

Marketwatch The chart below shows that the aggregate market net asset value of bitcoin-treasury companies — or the aggregate market capitalization of such companies divided by the value of bitcoin they held — has fallen sharply from earlier this year.

MarketWatch


2. ORCL Capex Chart

ZeroHedge


3. Apple Capex vs. Big Tech Leaders-Barrons

Barron’s


4. MAG 7 Vs. NFLX Chart….NFLX -23% in 6 Months

StockCharts


5. You Tube vs. NFLX

 A Wealth of Common Sense


6. ARKK Big Year…5 Years S&P +15.20% CAGR vs. ARKK -6.2%

Google Finance


7. Projections by the 19 FOMC members for the midpoint of the federal funds rate

Wolf Street Amid 3 dissenters in both directions, FOMC cuts by 25 basis points. “Dot Plot” sees 1 cut next year, 3 members see 1 hike. Reserve management purchases of T-bills begins.

The FOMC voted today to cut the Fed’s five policy rates by 25 basis points, as widely expected, the third cut in 2025, after cutting by 100 basis points in 2024.

There were 3 dissenters of the 12 voting FOMC members, the most dissenters since September 2019, under Powell. Two dissenters (Goolsbee and Schmid) wanted no cut. Miran wanted a 50-basis-point cut. Dissents are a breath of fresh air.

Projections by the 19 FOMC members for the midpoint of the federal funds rate by the end of 2026 (bold = median):

  • 1 sees 6 cuts
  • 1 sees 4 cuts
  • 2 sees 3 cuts
  • 4 see 2 cuts
  • 4 see 1 cut
  • 4 see no change
  • 3 see 1 rate hike.

Wolf Street https://wolfstreet.com/2025/12/10/this-fed-meeting-must-have-been-an-epic-circus/


8. Global Long-Term Bond Yields Hit 16-Year Highs

Yahoo Finance


9. Getting Less Than 7 Hours Of Sleep Linked To Shorter Life Expectancy Across America

Reviewed by John Anderer

Study Finds


10. The New College Version of “The Dog Ate My Homework”

Psychology Today Personal Perspective: Students are using mental health excuses for academic shortcomings. Deborah J. Cohan Ph.D.

As a college professor for 30 years, I’m no stranger to the range of excuses that students provide for missed work or poor performances. But in the past year, a new phenomenon has emerged in relation to excuse-making.

First, students are relying on AI to craft emails to professors. In fact, one of my colleagues just shared with me that a student sent an email to him with the salutation, Dear Professor Last Name. I would have fantasies of writing back to that student, Dear Student First Name.

I’m left wondering if and how students are relying on faculty for good faith responses when they are querying with bad faith questions and excuses.

But the more pressing problem is when students use AI to craft these messages while also incorporating lengthy commentary about mental health, alluding to how, for example, their depression got in the way of their ability to do their work.

I get the importance of mental health. I’ve spent my career researching, writing, and teaching about mental health issues and have also worked as a counselor for years. I don’t take it lightly when students share difficult things. I’ve sat for hours with students in crisis, reeling from trauma, and struggling to heal.

These emails are not that.

Following the sentences about how they forgot about classwork, didn’t plan their time well, and generally forget their hybrid and online classes, students launch into the mental health issue and simultaneously ask if I might have it in my heart to change their grades. They tell me how much it would mean to them if I would just add a few more points or give them an extra assignment or extra credit days before the semester is ending. They add, “I know it never hurts to ask,” not understanding that it most certainly does. I feel like a film director, wanting to yell “Cut!” I experience these messages as desperately manipulative.

Students are active agents in the larger cultural discourse around mental health, and they have intuited that they can pull on the heartstrings of their teachers to get what they want. Moreover, this comes across as controlling because they also know that an educator will have a much harder time maintaining a penalty if there is a mental health issue, because what educator working with young people would be so mean? They’ve surmised that it’s insufficient to just say that they forgot or that they did not prioritize the classwork.

As I discuss in my book, The Complete U: Over 100 Lessons for Success in and out of the College Classroom, students don’t simply state that they are sad. They diagnose themselves as being depressed. They are not nervous about a test; they suffer from anxiety. And when they’re really nervous, they’re having a panic attack. Everything is at full throttle—except for any zest and curiosity about actual learning.

The trouble with these messages is how predictable and formulaic they are. Moreover, where are these students all semester long? The emails I receive from students are no longer about concepts they don’t thoroughly understand or about something they read or learned in another class that connects with what we’re talking about in our class, or a movie they saw that reminds them of a theory I had been teaching, and they want me to know about it. Those came in the days when students connected with me and other faculty in a human-to-human relationship and made critical and analytical connections. Now the emails are about wanting a few more points for something, or having an issue with technology, or saying that they’re confused even though they later admit to having never read whatever they said they were confused about.

Two things happened in higher education around the same time, both of which have been fairly detrimental to the whole experience: One is the openness of the online gradebook; the other is email. Of course, many things have contaminated higher education both from the outside and from the inside, but two things are for sure: The instantly transparent grade book gives students the chance to immediately react to a grade, and they can then email a professor with their dissatisfaction.

This is one of those moments where I can really say I did walk a mile and trudge uphill in the snow to find out about a grade. I was an undergraduate student at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and when professors posted grades, it was on a sheet outside their office door, and since we didn’t have email, we just relied on when they said they might be posting the grades. It was common to arrive at the door and find that nothing was posted yet. We did not bang on the door, asking why it had taken a little longer. We didn’t march to the provost’s or president’s office and demand to talk to someone about our complaints. Instead, we walked back downhill, picked up a coffee, and headed home. A day or two later, we would try again. And if we had questions about those grades, we checked the syllabus for when the office hours were and planned to see the professor then.

Students aren’t discerning what is an emergency, or when it is appropriate to contact someone, or why it’s inappropriate to ask for special favors like redos, extra assignments, or extra credit. Do they really think I’m going to do it for them and no one else? And if they think their begging and quibbling will get me to offer an opportunity to the whole class, they’re not thinking about the massive undertaking it is to add additional grading assignments to a syllabus.

It’s the world larger than themselves that I’m forever trying to get them to see. 

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/social-lights/202512/the-new-college-version-of-the-dog-ate-my-homework

 

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 December 10, 2025

1. XLK Tech ETF Up 11 Days in a Row

XLK is up 11 straight days.  This is the 3rd longest streak in history! Dave Lutz Jones Trading


2. AI Mentioned in 306 Earnings Calls Q3 by S&P Companies

FactSet


3. Utilities that Power AI Pulling Back…XLU Utility ETF

StockCharts


4. Next Bid AI Event….ORCL Earnings Wednesday …Stock 1/3 Off Highs

Barrons

StockCharts


5. Leveraged ETFs Hit $239B AUM

Barchart


6. Recovery from Covid ….Restaurants and Hotels Lead

The Irrelevant Investor


7. India IPO Boom

Semafor


8. 10-Year Treasury Going the Wrong Way


9. Small Cap Stocks Need Lower Rates (IWM) ..Ticks from New Highs

StockCharts


10. Rich People, Poor Morals: Wealthy Are The Most Likely To Rip Off Self-Checkout Machines

by Tyler Durden  Rich people, poorer morals? A new LendingTree report claims the shoppers most likely to rip off the self-checkout machine aren’t the desperate — they’re the well-off, according to the NY Post.

Americans making over $100,000 a year are twice as likely to steal at self-checkout compared to low-income shoppers. A hefty 40% of six-figure earners admitted they’ve deliberately skipped scanning an item, while just 17% of those making under $30,000 confessed to the same.

The Post writes that middle-income households didn’t look much better: 27% of people earning between $50K and $99K say they’ve helped themselves without paying. And men are the biggest culprits overall, with 38% admitting to theft versus only 16% of women.

Even with AI scanners and weight sensors trying to outsmart sticky fingers, self-checkout theft is still rising.

A chunk of shoppers don’t feel bad about it either. Nearly one-third say big retailers make plenty of money, so swiping something “doesn’t hurt.” Another 35% defend the habit by claiming they’re basically unpaid store workers and grabbing an item or two is “compensation.”

Still, most blame inflation rather than guilt-free shoplifting. Forty-seven percent say rising prices are forcing people to cheat at the register — meaning even wealthy shoppers might be feeling the squeeze, just not enough to pay for everything in their cart.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rich-people-poorer-morals-wealthy-are-most-likely-rip-self-checkout-machines

 

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 December 09, 2025

1. AI Pace of Change

UBS shows, “The longest human task (by duration) that an LLM can complete with at least 50% success rate is doubling every 7 months.”

Zach Goldberg Jefferies


2. Semiconductor ETF SMH…A Couple Ticks from New Highs

StockCharts


3. Schwab vs. Robinhood

Michael Batnick


4. Market Tops Usually Preceded by IPO Boom….IPO ETF Not Booming….+1% Last 12 Months

StockCharts


5. IPO Drought ….Companies Staying Private Longer

Blackrock Institute


6. Waymo Vehicles Far Less Crashes

chartr


7. Nancy Pelosi $130M in Stock Trade Profits

Peter Mallouk


8. Pentagon Deploys Kamikaze Drones $35k

WSJ The drone is fully autonomous, meaning it can operate with little or no human interaction, relying on sensors and artificial intelligence to navigate to its target. It can fly for about six hours, according to SpektreWorks.

Each FLM 136, also known as Lucas, costs $35,000, according to Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesman for Central Command. The MQ-9 Reaper drones cost an estimated $16 million, according to a spokesman for General Atomics, its manufacturer. In many cases, kamikaze drones cost far less than the interceptors used to shoot them down.

WSJ


9. Dr. Mark Hyman Longevity

Mark Hyman


10. Prof G on the State of U.S. Education

PROF G MEDIA

 

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 December 08, 2025

1. Credit Default Rates Improving-Torsten Slok

Apollo


2. Markets Don’t Top Out When Investors are Pessimistic…How About 2025 Being 4th Most Pessimistic Year on Record?

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright


3. Was Trump the Bottom in Clean Energy Stocks?  Global X CleanTech +60% YTD


4. Trump was Bottom in Clean Energy Stocsk….Invesco Clean Energy ETF +54% YTD

Google Finance


5. Commodites Index Breaking Out of 3 Year Sideways Pattern

StockCharts


6. Never Bet Against the American Consumer Spending Money….Retail Index About to Make New Highs for XMAS

StockCharts


7. Polymarkets New World for “Insider” Trading—From Howard Lindzon

haeju.eth


8. Markets with Biggest Rent Deflation

Nick Gerli


9. 39% of U.S. Land is Farmland

Mapped: Farmland by State in 2025

Niccolo Conte  Ryan Bellefontaine Joyce Ma

Mapped: Farmland by State in 2025

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Key Takeaways

  • Farmland covers 876 million acres, or 39% of U.S. land.
  • Great Plains states dominate: Nebraska tops the list at 89.5% farmland.

Much of the vast space of the U.S. is occupied by farmland, which produces many of the most demanded commodities. But which states have the most of their area used by farms?

The map uses the latest data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to show the share of each state’s land area used for farming.

Visual Capitalist


10. How Purpose Envy Misleads Us

Stop chasing someone else’s life path and build a meaningful one of your own.-Psychology Today

Key points Jordan Grumet M.D.

  • Envy harms well-being, especially when comparing others’ purpose to our own.
  • Purpose envy is fueled by social media, influencers, and unrealistic highlight reels.
  • You can’t co-opt someone else’s purpose; true purpose must align with your own values.
  • Focus on what you want and are willing to work for; envy fades when you’re embracing your path.

Envy arises when we compare ourselves to someone else and conclude they’re better off. We’ve all been there. Envy is a universal emotion, but it’s also a corrosive one. In a large longitudinal study of more than 18,000 adults, researchers found that higher levels of envy predicted poorer well-being years later. Put simply: The more envious we are, the worse we tend to feel over time.

Most of us would love to sidestep that emotion entirely. But when it comes to purpose—our sense of direction and meaning—it’s getting harder than ever to avoid.

Although psychologists haven’t yet named it formally, purpose envy is becoming a modern condition. We scroll through feeds full of people who seem to know exactly why they’re here and what they’re meant to do. They’ve branded their purpose, packaged it beautifully, and broadcast it to millions. For young people in particular, this can be intoxicating. Searching for a relatable version of purpose, they often model their lives on the influencers they follow: the entrepreneur building a seven-figure business, the traveler living out of a van, the artist who “made it” by 25.

The problem isn’t admiration. It’s imitation. When we confuse someone else’s highlight reel for a road map, we end up chasing a life that isn’t ours.

And it’s not just a Gen Z issue.

When Admiration Turns to Envy

I’ll admit it: I’ve felt purpose envy myself. I’m a fan of Scott Galloway—the professor, podcaster, and author whose work (like The Algebra of Wealth and The Prof G Pod) dives deep into ideas that matter to me. He’s articulate, accomplished, financially successful, and undeniably purposeful.

I admire him. But I also envy him.

That envy used to sting until I realized something important: As much as I admire Galloway, I don’t actually want to be him. That insight changed everything. It revealed why escaping purpose envy might be simpler than we think.

Here are three truths that helped me, and might help you, put purpose envy in its place.

1. Purpose Can’t Be Co-Opted

Everywhere you look, someone is trying to sell you a version of purpose.

Social media influencers wrap it around whatever they’re promoting. If they’re selling designer sneakers, purpose becomes fashion. If they’re promoting travel, purpose becomes seeing the world. If they’re pushing protein supplements, purpose becomes fitness.

Advertisers do the same. They frame purpose as luxury, vitality, or success. Anything that convinces you their product will complete you. Even family members can unintentionally project their version of purpose onto you (“We just want you to have the opportunities we didn’t”).

The catch? All of these versions of purpose serve their goals, not yours.

To “co-opt” means to absorb something for your own use, often in a way that dilutes its original meaning. When we internalize someone else’s idea of purpose—whether it’s an influencer’s, a brand’s, or a parent’s—the result is usually frustration, not fulfillment.

Your purpose can’t be bought, borrowed, or inherited. It’s not something you “find” by copying someone else’s story. It’s something you build by paying attention to what makes you feel alive, and what you’re willing to work for.

2. Ask Yourself: Am I Willing to Put in the Work?

It’s easy to envy someone else’s life when you’re only seeing the rewards. But purpose isn’t built on envy; it’s built on effort.

When I catch myself wishing I had Scott Galloway’s platform or career, I ask a simple question: Am I willing to do what he does to get it?Do I want to travel constantly, spend long weeks recording podcasts, running businesses, and giving talks? Do I want to live that pace, that public life?

The honest answer is no.

Many of us want the outcomes of someone else’s purpose, but not the sacrifices it requires. We envy the destination without wanting to take the journey. And that’s a sign that what we’re craving isn’t their purpose—it’s the feeling of fulfillment we imagine they have.

Once you realize that, envy starts to lose its grip.

3. You Don’t Have to Want the Whole Package

When we compare ourselves to others, we tend to fixate on the highlights: the parts of their lives that look enviable. But we rarely consider the full picture.

I might wish I had Galloway’s platform, but I don’t necessarily want his schedule, his scrutiny, or his stress. Like most people, I only envy select pieces of his life.

Purpose envy tricks us into forgetting that every life is a bundle of trade-offs. You can’t have the good parts without the costs that come with them. And when you look closely, you may find that you don’t actually want the whole package. You just want a more authentic version of your own.

When I remember that, I’m reminded that my life, as ordinary as it sometimes feels, already reflects a set of choices I value: time with family, creative autonomy, work that feels meaningful on my own terms.

The Paradox of Purpose Envy

Here’s the irony: Envy isn’t always bad. Sometimes, it’s a compass. It points to something you value but haven’t yet developed. Seeing another writer or podcaster succeed can spark the motivation to improve your craft or commit to a project you’ve been neglecting.

But if you let envy steer the ship, you’ll end up chasing other people’s dreams instead of building your own.

Purpose envy thrives on comparison. It fades when you start paying attention to your own direction.

In the End

Purpose envy is common, but it rarely serves us. It encourages us to adopt someone else’s story, complete with their costs, instead of writing our own.

The truth is, most of us are already living parts of our purpose; we just overlook them because they don’t look grand or glamorous. The envy we feel toward others can be a cue, not a curse: a reminder to get curious about what truly drives us.

Because in the end, purpose isn’t something you envy. It’s something you earn by paying attention, doing the work, and refusing to let anyone else define what it means for you.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-regret-free-life/202511/how-purpose-envy-misleads-us