1. Q1 Letter: All Along the Watchtower

Introduction

“There’s too much confusion, I can’t get no relief.” Hendrix wasn’t writing about global markets, but he might as well have been. War in Iran, political turmoil, an AI reckoning, and a private credit crisis are dominating headlines all at once and investors are searching for a way out. But through the noise, American business keeps doing what it does best: innovating and producing higher earnings.

In my year-end 2025 letter, we discussed stock market volatility versus bear markets, with the expectation that 2026 would bring heightened turbulence. That expectation has arrived in force. Although the Iran conflict is front and center, the broader thesis from that letter remains intact. As the chart below shows, 100% of midterm election years since 1950 have produced significant corrections, averaging more than –17%. Add the well-documented pattern of –10%+ pullbacks surrounding the appointment of a new Fed chair, and 2026 is delivering both events in a single year.

The good news: one-year returns following midterm correction troughs have been positive every single time.

Click Here to Continue Reading

---

2. 7 Day Win Streak Prior History

Ryan Detrick

---

3. The AI Layoff Benchmark-Revenue Per Employee

Get The Leverage

---

4. CAT Caterpillar Investors Used to Look at CAT as Measure of Economy??  $200 to $800

Google finance

---

5. Truflation Update

Truflation

---

6. Pre-War All of Iran’s Oil Went to China

---

7. China EV Exports +124%

Sherwood Media

---

8. Home Sellers vs. Buyers Biggest Gap Ever

Barchart

---

9. Diamond Prices Hit Record Low as Lab Grown Eats the Middle Market

Torston Slok Apollo

---

10. Tax Refunds +11% this Year

Tax Refunds Climb Ahead Of April 15, IRS Data Show

April 13, 2026 • Medora Lee

The number of tax returns the IRS has received so far this tax season continue to lag last year’s pace, but refunds are up more than 11%, IRS data show.

The average refund through Apr. 3 was $3,462, up 11.1% from $3,116 at the same time in 2025 while total returns received fell 1.6%, the IRS said. Total returns received was just over $99.8 million, down from more than $101.4 million a year ago.

Given the earliest filers tend to be the lowest income, refunds in the final week to the April 15 deadline the average payout could get another small boost, analysts said.

That should be encouraging news to Americans who are struggling under the weight of elevated prices and a slowing job market, analysts said.

“Tax refunds appear to be mitigating the gas price surge so far as both discretionary and nondiscretionary spending remain strong,” said Christopher Horvers, analyst at JP Morgan.

“As the tax season progresses, the middle-income-plus consumer should see a strong lift given the SALT (state and local tax) portion of the OBBB,” or One Big Beautiful Bill, he added.

Average refunds are big. How to get them faster?

“Combining direct deposit with electronic filing is the fastest way to receive your refund,” the IRS said. Most refunds are issued in less than 21 days for taxpayers who filed a flawless return electronically and chose direct deposit.

Nine out of 10 taxpayers already receive their tax refunds by direct deposit, but to boost that closer to 100%, the IRS began phasing out paper checks last September.

“Paper checks are over 16 times more likely to be lost, stolen, altered, or delayed than electronic payments,” the IRS said. “Direct deposit also avoids the possibility that a refund check could be returned to the IRS as undeliverable.”

How do I know when my refund’s coming?

Through the IRS “Where’s My Refund” tool, you can track when the IRS received your tax return, when it approved a refund and when it issued the refund. The money should land in your account within five days from the date the IRS approves your refund.

If you mailed a paper return and expect a refund, it could take four weeks or more to process your return, the IRS said.

Since refunds for Americans who claimed the EITC/ACTC can’t be released until mid-February for early filers, those taxpayers may have to wait until around March 3 to see their refunds in their bank accounts or on debit cards, if they chose direct deposit and there are no issues with the tax return.

If you don’t have a bank account, find one through the FDIC website or the National Credit Union Administration using their Credit Union Locator Tool. Usually, people can open a bank account pretty quickly. You can also ask your tax preparer if they offer other electronic payment options.

Otherwise, you might be able to deposit your refund onto a reloadable prepaid debit card or mobile app. Many reloadable prepaid cards and mobile apps have routing and account numbers, which may be different from the card number. Check with your financial institution to make sure your card or app can receive the deposit and double-check the routing and account numbers.

How should people use their tax refunds?

Along with that big check comes big responsibility, so make sure not to spend it all away, financial experts said. Here are some ideas:

• Since refunds are expected to be larger than usual, splitting a refund can be a convenient way to manage your money. You can split the refund in any proportion you want, sending some to an account for immediate use and some for future savings, in up to three different accounts with U.S. financial institutions, reloadable prepaid debit cards, or mobile apps.  You can use your tax software to do it electronically or use IRS Form 8888, Allocation of Refund if you file a paper return. 
• Plan how to use the refund before receiving it. This “reduces overspending risk by assigning the refund a job in advance — debt payoff, emergency savings, or essential expenses,” said Paul Ricci, chief executive of personal loans site Best Egg.
• Put debt reduction and financial health ahead of lifestyle upgrades. “Applying refunds toward high-interest balances can reduce financial stress and improve credit utilization,” Ricci said. “Prioritizing emergency savings – 3 to 6 months of expenses — helps prevent future reliance on credit when unexpected costs arise.”

(Story was updated to include the latest IRS filing data through April 3)

This article originally appeared in USA Today and was provided by Reuters.

https://www.fa-mag.com/news/tax-refunds-climb-ahead-of-april-15–irs-data-show-86617.html

1. Tech Valuation Gap Kaput!

Apollo

---

2. Huge Gaps in Tech Sub-Sector Performance….Semiconductor ETF Making All-Time Highs

StockCharts

---

3. Technology Stock Insiders Buying

Tech insiders. “Technology sector insiders keep buying (The chart shows the total number of corporate insiders of companies covered by the XLK ETF that have bought shares on the open market during the past six months). Make of it what you will.”

Jay kaeppel

---

4. Consulting Stocks Slammed by AI

Fiscal.ai

---

5. Contra Indicator?  Hedge Funds Max Bearish

Ryan Detrick

---

6. Google Search Shows the World is Focused on The Price of Oil

The Kobeissi Letter

---

7. Real Rates Saying Lower 10-Year Rate Coming

Marketwatch-It’s a good bet that interest rates will be lower in coming months — notwithstanding the ultimate resolution of the war in Iran, beyond the temporary cease-fire agreement, and the extraordinary volatility of energy prices to which the conflict has led.

That’s because U.S. Treasury real yields — reflecting the difference between nominal yields and inflation — are higher than at any time since the 2008 global financial crisis, as you can see from the chart below. More often than not historically, above-average real rates have been followed in fairly short order by lower nominal rates. By 

Mark Hulbert

Market Watch

---

8. Population Growth Up 9X in 200 Years…Poverty Plummets

Arthur MacWaters

---

9. Eating the Same Meals Every Day Led to 37% More Weight Loss

Food variety is not the problem. A 12-week study suggests decision fatigue is the hidden variable in many failed diets.

Today’s Health Upgrade

• The boring diet secret that actually works
• Weekly wisdom
• The problem with the scale

Nutrition

Number You Won’t Forget 37 Percent

The Boring Diet Secret That Actually Works

Most diet advice promises that if you just find the right foods, the right plan, and the right combination, it’ll finally click. What gets less attention is that the choosing itself might be the problem. 

New research suggests the mental work of deciding what to eat every day and forcing variety undermines the effort people are already making.

A 12-week study found that people who ate a more repetitive, predictable diet lost 37% more weight than those who varied their meals more frequently. And researchers believe reduced decision fatigue may be driving the difference.

Researchers tracked overweight adults for 12 weeks in a structured behavioral weight-loss program, using real-time mobile food logs and daily weigh-ins. They measured two things: how much daily calorie intake fluctuated from day to day, and how often participants ate the same foods repeatedly. 

Variety can be a good thing. However, in a food environment engineered with high-calorie options at every turn, variety creates exposure, which can make it easier to stray from the intended plan. Each new choice is another moment when willpower has to show up, and willpower is a finite resource for many people who struggle with their weight. 

A predictable rotation of go-to meals can help sidestep that problem because the decision is already made.

This isn’t an argument against eating a wide variety of fruits, vegetables, and whole foods. Prior research consistently supports dietary diversity within healthy food groups. 

This study examines how much daily decision-making about eating can affect consistency. And because this was an observational study of people already in a structured program, the findings show an association, not a proven cause.

The practical move is simpler than any diet plan: build a short rotation of meals you like, already know how to make, and can eat without negotiating with yourself. Four to six reliable options — breakfast, lunch, dinner — that you cycle through during the week. Not necessarily forever. Just enough to take the daily decision off the table. If you need help with a no-calorie-counting approach, try the Pump Club nutrition tracker.  

https://arnoldspumpclub.com

---

10. Urgency Culture Is Impeding Our Ability to Live Well

It’s time to learn the difference between urgent and important.-Psychology Today Ira Bedzow Ph.D.

KEY POINTS

• We confuse activity with progress, reacting quickly without thinking about where we’re going.
• Living well requires time to reflect, not just efficiency in responding.
• If you don’t intentionally choose your priorities, your sense of urgency will choose them for you.

Our lives are increasingly getting faster and faster. A text message arrives; we feel compelled to respond immediately. An email appears, and we interrupt whatever we were doing to acknowledge it. We don’t even notice that the person we were talking to kept on speaking. We look at our phones and forget whatever else we were doing or where we were going. Like hamsters in a lab hitting a bar, we keep moving faster and faster to get our dopamine hit, mistaking activity for progress and urgency for importance.

Notifications buzz, calendars fill, deadlines approach. We move from task to task without looking at the bigger picture. Forget the trees, we don’t see the forest through all the paper-pushing. If something is asking for our attention right now, we believe it must deserve it.

But urgency and importance are not the same thing.

Urgent vs. Important

Urgent matters demand immediate action. Important matters shape how we live our lives. The problem is that urgent matters are almost always easier to address. They arrive clearly defined and time-bound” Answer this message, attend this meeting, meet this deadline. Once completed, they give us the satisfying feeling of progress.

Important matters are rarely that clearly defined, and, when addressed, they rarely give us a sense of making progress. Instead, they oftentimes give us a sense of needing to change direction. They may even overwhelm us if we are afraid to make that change.

Of course, there are issues that are urgent and important. If you don’t seek medical care for a serious and acute health concern, you may suffer significant long-term consequences. It is also totally understandable to drop everything to address family or other emergencies. These, however, are outliers, not the norm.

More often, decisions about how we take care of our health, develop strong relationships, or advance in our careers unfold slowly. They require reflection rather than reaction. Questions in these areas don’t demand immediate answers, but you do have to answer them, since they profoundly influence how you will live your life. Choosing how to spend our time, who to spend it with, and what kinds of work we engage in are among the most consequential decisions we make, but they never have the urgency as those things that pop up in our inbox or show up on our calendars.

When we respond to immediate cues rather than consider distant consequences, we gradually shift our attention away from what matters most. We become adept at managing the urgent while postponing—or forgetting about—what’s important. The result is that we may move faster and faster, but in reality we end up going nowhere or not knowing where we are going.

Life Grooves

Over time, the patterns we create through reacting rather than reflecting solidify into what I like to call “life grooves.” The more deeply those grooves form, the harder they are to step out of. Opportunities that once felt available may no longer seem feasible. Paths that once felt optional may start to feel inevitable. 

In this way, urgency culture can quietly limit our freedom. It doesn’t mean that stepping out of a life groove is impossible. It just means that we need to be much more intentional and work that much harder to change the path our habits have set for us.

Living well requires more than efficiently responding to external demands. It involves choosing actions and cultivating habits that reflect the kind of person you want to become. But reflection takes time, and urgency rarely makes space for it. So, one of the first steps to living well is choosing to give yourself the time to make good choices.

This does not imply that urgent and important matters should be ignored. Deadlines matter. Responsibilities matter. But treating every immediate demand as equally significant risks crowding out the activities and relationships that contribute most to a meaningful life.

We need to find ways to resist this pressure, to create space for reflection even when no crisis demands it. This might include scheduling regular time to think rather than to do, taking a pause between receiving a request and responding to it, or setting aside device-free moments at certain points of the day or week to allow you to connect to other things.

If you are someone who wants to work on creating healthy boundaries, practicing the intentional “No” can protect time for relationships, recreation, health, or meaningful work. Planning for important but non-urgent matters—such as exercise, maintaining connections, or investing in your own professional growth—ensures that these priorities are addressed before they slip away or are imposed upon us by circumstance.

The question of how to spend a single afternoon may seem trivial, but the pattern of how we spend our afternoons shapes who we become. Not everything urgent is important, and the challenge is recognizing the difference before our habits create a life for us that we would rather not have.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/life-well-lived/202603/urgency-culture-is-destroying-our-ability-to-live-well

1. Fear from Investors

Ryan Detrick

---

2. Market Volume Skyrocketing

The Kobeissi Letter

---

3. Maturity Wall for Private Tech Lending

Dave Lutz Jones Trading PRIVATE MARKETS PAIN– The software problem roiling private markets is about to face a big new test. A wall of debt maturities is looming for the industry just as artificial intelligence threatens to upend entire businesses in what’s been dubbed the SaaSpocalypse.

More than $330 billion of high yield, leveraged loan and business development company-linked software and technology debt is coming due for repayment through 2028, a chunk of it tied to firms owned by private markets. As companies look to refinance in the coming months, they face numerous headwinds, from fears about AI devaluing or replacing their products to the risk of higher borrowing costs spurred by the war in the Middle East.

---

4. IPO ETF 5 Years in Big Circle…13k Private Equity Held Companies Held for Over 7 Years?

StockCharts

---

5. Big Tech Seeing Valuation Re-Set, But Still 2^nd Most Outperformers

The Irrelevant Investor

---

6. Palantir at Big Support Level Here -36% from Highs

StockCharts

---

7. Intel INTC  Full Breakout

StockCharts

---

8. Connecticut Biggest Housing Shortage in U.S.

Nick Gerli

---

9. Morality of Fellow Citizens

Visual Capitalist

---

10. Print Books Still Lead

Pew Research Center

1. 2026 Q1 Decline

The 7.3% decline in the first 60 trading days of this year was one of the worst starts to a year in history.

---

2. QQQ Held Blue Trend Line Going Back to Liberation Day

StockCharts

---

3. S&P Same Held Blue Trend Line

StockCharts

---

4. Former Trader Favorite Stock TTD -85% from Highs

StockCharts

---

5. America Leading Space Race

---

6. Amazon Growth of Revenue Per Employee 2020-2025

Perplexity

---

7. Growth of Prediction Markets

Kevin Gordon

---

8. Retail Investors Moving to Cash

Barchart

---

9. Wealth Migration by State

Mr Family Office

---

10. Attention and effort-Seth’s Blog

The door-to-door salesperson had no leverage. If he was at your door, he wasn’t at anyone else’s door. Every minute you spent with him was a minute he had to spend with you. While it was a tough gig, no one doubted that something was motivating this person enough to put at least as much into the interaction as you were. You might close the door in the face of the person who rang your bell, but at some level, you knew that another human was involved.

Spammers play a different scheme. One person can steal the time and attention of a million. It costs them nothing (actually, truly, nothing) to add one more name to the list. The lack of care and discernment comes through in their interactions. They steal attention in bulk and treat it casually. No one feels bad when they delete or filter spam.

In B2B selling and other high-value sales calls, the seller puts in a lot of effort. A custom presentation deck, useful spreadsheets, even a flight across the country to meet in person. That effort is expected, because the buyer sees their attention as valuable.

And now, here come AI agents. These are spammers disguised as door-to-door salespeople. They know your name, your history, your details–and they present a pitch that looks and feels as though a human spent a lot of time thinking about it and focusing on the buyer’s needs and desires.

But it’s done on a huge scale. It’s like seine fishing. A huge net is set to catch as many fish as possible, with no regard for the mass destruction it causes as a result.

Our instinct is to respect the work of a pitch that took more effort to create than it will cost us to consume (that’s why books are more respected than blog posts!). But AI agents, working at high speed to churn through the small amount of trust and attention we have left, upend that expectation.

Attention and trust continue their dance, and our choices determine how we’ll show up in the marketplace. Burning trust to get attention rarely pays off. 

https://seths.blog/

1. Retail Started Selling Last Week For First Time Since November 2025

Retail activity. “Our retail cash platform finished last week net selling, the first such week since November 2025 … retail has moved away from one-way buying behavior.”

Scott Rubner – Citadel

---

2. Dow Transports Chart Holds Dec 2025 and March 2026 Lows

StockCharts

---

3. Tesla -30% from Highs

StockCharts

---

4. Buffett Indicator Update—This Has Been Expensive Zone for a 8 Years

Advisor Perspectives

---

5. Helium Consumption by Sector

Helium shortage has started impacting tech supply chains, execs say

Reuters

---

6. 10-Year Treasury was Above 5% 1977-2008

Wolf Street

---

7. AI Rivals Team USA vs. China

Semafor

---

8. Anthropic Annual Revenue Run Rate

Abnormal Returns

---

9. Kharg Island Iran-8K People Live on Island

Perplexity

---

10. Why Smart Leaders Do Less

Psychology Today Focusing energy on the decisions that matter drives better results. Ryan C. Warner Ph.D.

Key points

• Constant decision-making drains mental energy, gradually reducing clarity and judgment quality.
• Top leaders achieve better outcomes by deliberately doing less and focusing on high-impact decisions.
• Cutting decision load with routines, delegation, and defaults preserves mental energy for key choices.

Most advice for high achievers emphasizes doing more, moving faster, and juggling everything at once. But that approach quietly undermines what matters most: the quality of decisions. The issue isn’t effort—every choice, big or small, draws from the same finite mental energy. Over time, even the most capable people notice subtle shifts in clarity. This isn’t classic burnout—it’s a gradual erosion of sharp thinking.

To understand how top leaders manage this, I spoke with Jake Brydon, founder and CEO of Heritage Construction. Across multiple ventures, he noticed a consistent pattern: The strongest decision-makers weren’t doing more—they were deliberately doing less.

The Hidden Cost of Constant Decision-Making

Science may help explain why doing less can be more effective. For instance, a recent study reported that repeatedly choosing among multiple options drains mental resources, reducing capacity for self‑control and leading to declines in decision performance over time. Frequent successive decisions not only deplete mental resources but also weaken higher‑order thinking, making it harder to stay focused on long‑term priorities.

Neuroscience explains why. For instance, the prefrontal cortex, responsible for reasoning, planning, and impulse control, loses efficiency under sustained cognitive load. As mental energy depletes, even highly capable professionals make less precise judgments.

For leaders, the consequences go beyond inefficiency. Critical decisions can be postponed, rushed, or influenced by convenience rather than thoughtful analysis. As Jake puts it: “My best decisions came not from doing more, but from protecting the time and mental space to focus on what truly matters.”

Why Smart Leaders Do Less

Top performers manage decisions differently by reducing the number of choices that demand their direct attention. They achieve this by standardizing routines, creating clear defaults, delegating decisions that don’t require their input, and structuring work around priorities and simplified paths, which lowers cognitive load and preserves mental energy for high-impact choices.

Equally important is recovery: Decision fatigue isn’t solely about workload but about deliberately creating space to reset. Even short breaks can restore focus and sustain clarity. As Jake emphasizes, “Doing less isn’t about avoiding responsibility—it’s about protecting the mental space to make choices that drive results.”

Protecting Emotional and Relational Clarity

Another often overlooked factor is how constant mental strain impacts emotional control and how leaders are perceived by others. Experts note that depleted cognitive resources make leaders more reactive and less empathetic in interactions with their teams. For instance, a recent study found that when people’s mental energy is low, they are less able to understand others and respond thoughtfully to their needs. Think about the last time you were exhausted—how hard was it to truly listen or put yourself in someone else’s shoes? This reduction in empathy can lower team trust, engagement, and collaboration, as leaders’ drained energy inevitably affects the entire group. Protecting mental energy, therefore, isn’t just about better decision-making—it’s about sustaining strong relationships and maintaining the emotional clarity essential for effective leadership.

Action-Focused Steps to Protect Your Thinking

Even small adjustments can make a big difference in the quality of your decisions. Regardless of your professional role, these strategies help preserve mental energy and keep your thinking sharp.

1. Front-load high-stakes decisions: Schedule your most important thinking for when cognitive resources are at their highest—usually earlier in the day. This gives you the mental clarity to tackle complex problems without feeling rushed or overwhelmed.
2. Eliminate repeat decisions: Identify choices that don’t need reconsideration every time by creating routines, defaults, or simple systems. For example, use a weekly meal plan to avoid daily “what’s for lunch/dinner?” decisions, set automated email filters or prioritization rules to manage incoming messages, choose a standard work wardrobe or “uniform” to reduce clothing choices, or use task management tools to streamline which tasks you tackle first. Even small systems like these add up. Removing repetitive decisions frees mental energy for higher-impact thinking.
3. Build deliberate recovery into your schedule: Take short breaks before fatigue sets in to restore decision quality. Step away to truly disengage—avoid scrolling or multitasking. Even a quick walk, time outside, or chatting with a colleague about something unrelated can reset focus and energy. For example, taking just five minutes at the top of each hour can help maintain clarity and sustain mental energy throughout the day.
4. Avoid stacking complex decisions: Spread out high-stakes choices to give your mind room to reset between them. According to Jake, “Spacing out difficult decisions prevents mental overload and helps you respond thoughtfully rather than reactively.” This approach is essential for maintaining focus and making consistently high-quality decisions.
5. Notice your cognitive patterns: Track when thinking is sharp and when it drifts. Most people have predictable rhythms; design your schedule around them. Being aware of your natural peaks and dips lets you plan your day to align tasks with your energy, making work feel smoother and less draining.

Bottom Line

Doing less isn’t about lowering standards or avoiding responsibility. It’s about creating the conditions for clear, high-quality judgment. Decision fatigue is predictable, not a personal flaw. Leaders who navigate it successfully aren’t the ones who push through the most. They are the ones who protect their capacity to think clearly, act intentionally, and maintain strong relationships with their teams. In the end, leadership isn’t measured by the number of decisions made in a day—it’s measured by the quality of the ones that truly move an organization forward.

© 2026 Ryan C. Warner, Ph.D.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/leadership-diversity-and-wellness/202604/why-smart-leaders-do-less