1. S&P Total Return History Following Start of Military Conflict
@Charlie Bilello
2. History of S&P Returns After 10 Year Rises .75 Basis Points
Capital Group
3. Stocks and Bonds Correlation Hit 30-Year High in June
Barron’s
4. Huge Debasement Trade Inflows $4B
NDR
5. Russia Moves Gold to Hong Kong
6. 5 Year CDS—Banks Narrowing While Tech Widening
Topdown Charts Blog Credit Check — Tech vs Banks: a similar divergence is playing out in Tech vs Bank sector CDS. Credit investors are treating tech borrowers with greater scrutiny, while banks are seen as lower risk than usual. This tells us that there are no systemic issues right now (calm on banks), but again, there are pockets of concern. If tech borrowers did start to default you can bet that will ripple across markets.
7. Since the Fed Started Hiking, Multiple Expansion Has Nearly Vanished as a Source of PE Value-Torsten Slok
Apollo
8. Bitcoin Bank Robbery $320 Million
Alleged White-Hat Hackers Withdraw 4,000 Bitcoin From Blockstream’s Liquid Network Federation Reserves
by Tyler Durden
Authored by Juan Galt via BitcoinMagazine.com,
The Liquid Network said Sunday that purported white-hat hackers withdrew about 4,000 bitcoin, worth about $320 million, from the federation wallet that backs L-BTC.
Bridge nodes were disabled, and the sidechain was paused. Other issued assets, including USDT, DePix and RWAs, were unaffected, the official account said on X.
The Liquid Network is a federated sidechain of Bitcoin, founded by Adam Back’s Blockstream. The Liquid chain issues a variety of assets such as LBTC, which it backs with BTC on the Bitcoin main chain, held in a large multisig of 15 corporate and known members. 11 of the 15 members need to sign a valid multi-signature transaction to move coins from the treasury. Before the hack, the treasury held over 4200 BTC; after the hack, Blockstream’s proof of reserves page reports a little over 207 BTC left.
The hackers withdrew 4,019.4 BTC from the reserve address in a peg-out transaction using the SideSwap Peg-out Authorization Key. SideWap is a bridge exchange and a member of the Liquid Federation. While details on the mechanism of the hack are not confirmed yet, it appears an inflation bug on the LBTC side chain was exploited by the hackers to create over 4,000 LBTC that did not exist before, and cash them out for on-chain bitcoin from the federation. Because the transaction appeared as valid, given the consensus bug, the federation members’ HSM security servers signed the BTC withdrawal transaction, worth roughly 320 million at the time.
9. Inflation Adjusted the Lufthansa Heist in 1978 from Goodfellas was $29.2M
ATI
10. Federal Government Workforce at Lowest Levels in 60 Years
Mark J. Perry