Topley’s Top 10 – March 31, 2022

1. Stocks Have Gained in April 15 of Past 16 Years

LPL Research

https://Iplresearch.com/2022/03/30/here-comes-the-best-month-of-the-year/


2. Emerging Markets Closed Below 200day Moving Average on Long-Term Weekly Chart

www.stockcharts.com


3. Chief Investment Officer Survey

CNBC

Maggie Fitzgerald@MKMFITZGERALDPatricia Martell@HTTPS://WWW.LINKEDIN.COM/IN/PATRICIA-MARTELL-CNBC/@PATRICIAMARTELL https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/30/investors-believe-its-time-to-buy-high-dividend-stocks-cnbc-survey-shows.html


4. Investment Grade Debt Biggest Dollar Decline Ever

Advisor Perspectives-The slump marked the biggest total return loss for high-grade bonds since Lehman Brothers’ collapse, and the worst junk performance since the start of the pandemic. The U.S. investment grade market alone saw about $440 billion in market value erased and is on track for the biggest three-month slump since 1980.

Global Corporate Bonds Lost $1 Trillion, and Risks Are Risingby Tasos Vossos, Hannah Benjamin, Jack Pitcher, 3/30/22 https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2022/03/30/global-corporate-bonds-lost-1-trillion-and-risks-are-rising


5. Yield Curve Inversions and SPX Returns

Posted on March 30, 2022 by Rob Hanna

There has been a lot of talk recently about yield curve inversions and whether that means a recession is on the way, and how soon? And if there is a recession, will there also be a bear market? I decided to forget about economic forecast and just look at how the SPX did after a curve inversion. I looked at both the 2yr/10yr and the 3mo/10yr combinations. For the study I used Norgate Data, and looked back as far as my database went, which was 1976 for the 2yr rate and 1981 for the 3mo. Results can be found below.

Note that 21 trading days is approximately 1 month. So 42 days is two months, 126 days is 6 months, 252 days is a year…you get it.

Not many instances to build out a case here. Some good and some bad numbers. More bullish than bearish. Overall, the initial inversion does not seem to be a great timing signal. Academics can argue and tv talking heads can blather about potential consequences, but traders should probably look to better timing devices to make their market judgements. I don’t see myself factoring this into any trading decisions.

Want research like this delivered directly to your inbox on a timely basis? Sign up for the Quantifiable Edges Email List.

https://quantifiableedges.com/yield-curve-inversions-and-spx-returns/


6. Two Week Short Squeeze?

Zerohedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-black-gold-bid-putin-sparks-stock-skid


7. Walmart Owns Most of Supermarkets in Mexico

VisualCapitalist-Mexico’s Relationship with Walmart-When it comes to supermarkets in Mexico, no single company comes close to matching the reach of Walmart. Also the world’s largest company by revenue, Walmart has over 2,700 stores in the country, including chains it owns such as Sam’s Club and Bodega Aurrera. The latter is both the largest supermarket within the Walmart category, and also the most popular in Mexico.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/walmart-owns-most-of-the-supermarkets-in-mexico/


8. Fertilizer Prices Huge Rally but Only Back to Pre-Covid Levels

Barrons

How Putin’s War Made These 3 Fertilizer Producers Hot Stocks-By Craig Mellow https://www.barrons.com/articles/putin-russia-ukraine-natural-gas-fertilizer-51648254668?mod=past_editions


9. U.S. population in multigenerational households quadrupled since 1971

Pew Research

For many, multigenerational living has practical reasons and emotional results

U.S. population in multigenerational households quadrupled since 1971 | Pew Research Center


10. Principles For Making the Right Decision

https://www.linkedin.com/in/raydalio/

Topley’s Top 10 – March 30, 2022

1. ”Real” Rates Not Near Recession Levels.

Dave Lutz at Jones Trading-“Real rates are staying very accommodative, which tends to go against the recession trade. They averaged +200bp at the time of past curve inversions, vs current negative. One doesn’t tend to have a recession from the starting point of outright negative real rates – JPMorgan


2. Platinum and Palladium Big Corrections

Platinum -17% Correction

Palladium -40% Correction

www.stockcharts.com


3. Brazil Stock Market +35% Year to Date

EWZ Brazil ETF-20% Move Up in 10 Days…50day thru 200day to upside


4. Software as Services (SaaS) Worldwide End-User Spending

Many of the fastest-growing companies within the technology sector over the past few years have implemented the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) software licensing model, which allows users to access the software through a subscription-based internet platform instead of downloading programs. This business model makes software easier to scale, as there are fewer barriers to entry for new customers. The recurring revenue generated by subscription-based services also makes SaaS companies more attractive to potential investors. The past few years have seen a rapid appreciation in the value of many of these companies, with the seemingly endless availability of capital that was partially the result of massive global economic stimulus after the pandemic-induced decline. Many SaaS companies also benefited from the work-from-home investment theme, as internet-based platforms allowed for easier transitions between working environments.

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


5. Exports Via LNG Exceed Pipeline for First Time in 2021

Exports via LNG (red line) in 2021 exceeded pipeline exports (purple line) for the first time:

US Natural Gas Production and LNG Exports amid Urgent Demand for LNG from Europeby Wolf Richter  https://wolfstreet.com/2022/03/28/us-natural-gas-production-and-lng-exports-amid-urgent-demand-for-lng-from-europe-wheres-it-going-to-come-from/


6. Best Performing Commodity ETFs this Year

Best Performing Commodity ETFs Of The Year (ex. leveraged/inverse)

Fund

Ticker

YTD Rtn

iPath Series B Bloomberg Nickel Subindex Total Return ETN

JJN

72.8%

ELEMENTS Rogers International Commodity Index

RJN

60.2%

United States Brent Oil Fund LP

BNO

58.5%

iPath Series B Bloomberg Energy Subindex Total Return ETN

JJE

57.5%

United States Natural Gas Fund

UNG

56.0%

iPath Series B Bloomberg Natural Gas Subindex Total Return ETN

GAZ

54.8%

United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund

UNL

50.9%

iPath GSCI Total Return Index ETN

GSP

50.6%

iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil ETN

OIL

50.2%

United States Oil Fund

USO

48.5%

United States Gasoline Fund

UGA

47.6%

GS Connect S&P GSCI Enhanced Commodity Total Return Strategy Index ETN

GSCE

47.3%

Proshares Trust-Proshares K-1 Free Crude Oil Strategy ETF

OILK

43.7%

Teucrium Wheat Fund

WEAT

43.6%

Invesco DB Energy Fund

DBE

43.2%

iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Indexed Trust

GSG

42.5%

United States 12 Month Oil Fund

USL

41.4%

iShares GSCI Commodity Dynamic

COMT

38.0%

ETRACS Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return ETN Series B

DJCB

35.2%

iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return ETN

DJP

3

https://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/best-performing-commodity-etfs-year


7. $18 Trillion Increase in Household Net Worth 2021

The Free Money Effect-The significant increase in US home prices (Case Shiller National Index up 19%) combined with a roaring stock market (S&P 500 up 29%) lead to an $18.2 trillion increase in US Household Net Worth during 2021. This was the third consecutive year of record highs, an unfathomable outcome when the pandemic first hit in early 2020.

https://twitter.com/charliebilello?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor


8. Where Do Homeowners Stay in Their Homes the Longest?

Across the nation, people are staying in their homes for less time than they did even a year ago.

By Michael Kolomatsky

With about half the number of homes available on the market as there were two years ago, many frustrated buyers are wondering when more owners will be ready to sell. A new study by Redfin shows that it may be starting to happen — although homeowners are still staying in their homes much longer than they did a decade ago.

The study found that U.S. homeowner tenure dipped a bit in November 2021, when the typical homeowner had spent 13.2 years in their home — down from 13.5 years in November 2020, and the first drop in tenure length since 2012, when the average was 10.1 years. The recent dip may be the result of owners cashing in on high prices, and by the scores of remote workers opting to relocate during the pandemic.

But it’s unclear if the market is really at a turning point. In some areas, homes are being held far longer than the national average. In the Los Angeles market, homes have typically sold every 18 years, the longest homeowner tenure in the country; in fact, seven California locales are among the top 20 in which people stay put longest.

One reason could be a misunderstanding of the state’s Proposition 13. Under the law, property taxes are kept low for homeowners for as long as they stay in the home, and only rise again when they sell it, reflecting its higher value. Fearful their next purchase will come with much higher taxes, a growing population of older Californians has stayed in place, Redfin suggests. But changes to the law now allow those seniors to transfer their lower tax rate to a new home. When this is more widely understood, California homeowner tenure could slide.

Redfin’s study shows that Midwest cities — Chicago, St. Louis and Detroit among them — saw the greatest increases in tenure, while popular destinations like Las Vegas, Atlanta and Tampa, Fla., saw the greatest decreases. This week’s chart, based on the study, shows where people stay put the longest, as well as the local median sale prices.

Where Homeowners Stay Longest

Source: Redfin

By The New York Times

For weekly email updates on residential real estate news, sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @nytrealestate.

A version of this article appears in print on March 27, 2022, Se

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/24/realestate/where-do-homeowners-stay-in-their-homes-the-longest.html


9. PPP Fraud…Estimates Between $70-80B

The Biggest Fraud in American History-NBC News By Ken Dilanian and Laura Strickler

They bought Lamborghinis, Ferraris and Bentleys.

And Teslas, of course. Lots of Teslas.

Many who participated in what prosecutors are calling the largest fraud in U.S. history — the theft of hundreds of billions of dollars in taxpayer money intended to help those harmed by the coronavirus pandemic — couldn’t resist purchasing luxury automobiles. Also mansions, private jet flights and swanky vacations.

They came into their riches by participating in what experts say is the theft of as much as $80 billion — or about 10 percent — of the $800 billion handed out in a Covid relief plan known as the Paycheck Protection Program, or PPP. That’s on top of the $90 billion to $400 billion believed to have been stolen from the $900 billion Covid unemployment relief program — at least half taken by international fraudsters — as NBC News reported last year. And another $80 billion potentially pilfered from a separate Covid disaster relief program.

The prevalence of Covid relief fraud has been known for some time, but the enormous scope and its disturbing implications are only now becoming clear.

said Mustafa Qadiri, 38, of Irvine, Calif., used money from the Paycheck Protection Program to buy three cars that cost six figures apiece, including this 2011 Ferrari 458 Italia.U.S. Attorney’s Office, Los Angeles

Even if the highest estimates are inflated, the total fraud in all Covid relief funds amounts to a mind-boggling sum of taxpayer money that could rival the $579 billion in federal funds included in President Joe Biden’s massive 10-year infrastructure spending plan, according to prosecutors, government watchdogs and private experts who are trying to plug the leaks.

“Nothing like this has ever happened before,” said Matthew Schneider, a former U.S. attorney from Michigan who is now with Honigman LLP. “It is the biggest fraud in a generation.”

Most of the losses are considered unrecoverable, but there is still a chance to stanch the bleeding, because federal officials say $600 billion is still waiting to go out the door. The Biden administration imposed new verification rules last year that administration officials say appear to have made a difference in curbing fraud. But they acknowledge that programs in 2020 sacrificed security for speed, needlessly.

Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz, who oversees Covid relief spending, told “NBC Nightly News” anchor Lester Holt in an exclusive interview that Covid relief programs were structured in ways that made them ripe for plunder.

“The Small Business Administration, in sending that money out, basically said to people, ‘Apply and sign and tell us that you’re really entitled to the money,’” said Horowitz, the chair of the Pandemic Response Accountability Committee. “And, of course, for fraudsters, that’s an invitation. … What didn’t happen was even minimal checks to make sure that the money was getting to the right people at the right time.”

The criminal methodology varied depending on the program. The epic swindle of Covid unemployment relief has been carried out by individual criminals or organized crime groups using stolen identities to claim jobless benefits from state workforce agencies disbursing federal funds. Each identity could be worth up to $30,000 in benefits, Horowitz said.

The looting of the Paycheck Protection Program worked differently — and it could be far more lucrative. The program authorized banks and other financial institutions to make government-backed loans to businesses, loans that were to be forgiven if the companies spent the money on business expenses. Nearly 10 million such loans have already been forgiven. Many of the loans-turned-grants were for millions of dollars, public records show.

Experts say millions of borrowers inflated their numbers of employees or created companies out of whole cloth. For much of 2020, lenders did little to verify the applications, prosecutors and experts say, in part because Congress required the Small Business Administration, or SBA, which ran the program, to issue explicit guidance that in the interest of getting the money out fast, lenders “will be held harmless for borrowers’ failure to comply with program criteria.” The Government Accountability Office warned of fraud risk, but the program continued under that rule.

“The government spent approximately $800 billion and provided 21 million loans to individuals,” said Haywood Talcove, the CEO for government at LexisNexis Risk Solutions, which works with the government to verify identities.

No one is sure exactly how much was stolen. An academic paper released last year estimated at least $76 billion in potential fraud, and the authors said that was conservative.

The SBA’s inspector general has identified $78.1 billion in potentially fraudulent Economic Injury Disaster Loans, another Covid relief program for businesses. The Secret Service has its own estimate: $100 billion.

‘Biggest fraud in a generation’: The looting of the Covid relief program known as PPP (nbcnews.com)


10. The Psychology of Jury Selection

How jurors are vetted by psychologists. Lori Kinsella J.D., PsyD.

The study of forensic psychology involves the application of clinical specialties, research and experimentation in psychology to the legal arena. (1).

One of the most observable and public intersections of law and psychology is in jury selection and jury consulting. Lawyers hire private jury consulting firms to help them examine potential jurors for trials in both criminal and civil matters. Jury consultants are usually psychologists and sociologists who specialize in interviewing, examining and analyzing potential jurors to determine how a jury is likely to react to parties and their claims.

Psychological Examinations of Jurors

The psychological examination of a jury pool, a process called voir dire, is often done by the lawyers and judge in most cases. In some cases, jury consultants are hired by lawyers in high profile or complex litigation. The basic purpose of voir dire is to determine if any particular potential juror has biases which may prejudice his or her decisions as a juror. The questions for the jurors are designed to reveal if a juror would be fair and impartial. The jurors may be personally interviewed or they may be asked to complete juror questionnaires which are analyzed by psychologists (jury consultants) who assign ratings to inform the lawyers on which potential jurors are likely to be fair and which are not. The questions can examine a juror’s potential racial or religious bias, personal experiences, socio-economic status, personal history and outlook and many other factors.

In both civil and criminal cases, attorneys on both sides of the docket probe prospective jurors. Will that juror be more likely to align with one side of the case? Are they bias, prejudice, emotional, religious, liberal or conservative? Even body language and television viewing habits of jurors translates into more data to be factored in the jury selection process to weed out the ‘wrong’ type of juror.

Digital Investigations of Jurors

According to the American Bar Association lawyers and jury consultants now have a digital treasure trove of private information about any potential juror because 74 percent of all Americans have social networking profiles and Twitter processes over half a billion tweets per day (2). Social networking sites like Facebook have become a part of jury selection in the digital age. Lawyers can learn almost anything about jurors including their taste in movies, music, politicseducation, hobbies and likes and dislikes. This type of digital inquiry has not been prohibited by law as of the date of this writing. However, the in depth digital investigation of potential jurors may eventually be prohibited as an invasion of privacy. For now, all potential jurors can be subjected to digital investigations.

Jurors Favor Attractive Defendants

A study investigating the biases of juries in criminal cases concluded that the attractiveness of a defendant can play a role in jury decisions on convictions and sentence recommendations. In this study (3), the jurors who participated were divided into two categories. Those who process information through their emotional filters and personal experiences and those who process information through objective and rational-based filters. The jurors who emotionally processed information were found to give lighter sentences to physically attractive defendants and harsher sentences and convictions to unattractive defendants. The study supports the conclusion that among the research participants, juror bias against unattractive defendants resulted in harsher conviction and sentencing outcomes.

Conclusion

The psychology of jury selection is complex because it involves the investigation of a potential juror’s mind and how they process information, their biases, personal experiences and histories, digital thumbprint, age, race, and many other factors. Finding a fair and impartial juror without prejudice is difficult. It involves the probing of minds and hearts. We are all entitled to be judged in a courtroom by a jury of our peers. This means it would be patently unfair to impanel a jury of all one race and gender to judge a defendant of a different race and gender. There are inherent biases presumed in such a case. Even when a jury is composed of a diverse group of men and women, the unseen psychological prejudices they may harbor, such as being bias against an unattractive defendant, are difficult to assess.

Our legal system relies on the good faith and genuine belief of jurors to be fair and impartial as well as the jury selection process to weed out bias and prejudice. In the end, lawyers on both sides of any case are entitled to examine a jury pool and weed out undesirables, this process works overall, with the help of expert psychologists who are skilled in assessment and analysis of a fair and impartial mind. The confluence of psychology and the law in the jury selection process has proven benefits to eliminate unfair bias and implement fair and impartial jury verdicts.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/forensic-files/202203/the-psychology-jury-selection

Topley’s Top 10 – March 29, 2022

1. U.S. Treasury Yield Breaking Above Downtrend Going Back to Mid-1980’s

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank

Today’s chart is one I’ve seen many times over the last several years, showing the downward trend channel in 10yr US Treasury yields since the mid-1980s.

As we breach the top of the trend line, will we be able to officially retire it soon or will we bounce back down into the long-term channel?

Clearly such a channel can’t go on forever unless you’re of the opinion that we will consistently see negative nominal US yields in the latter part of this decade. So the near 40-year trendline will almost certainly have to end in the next few years regardless, but the recent spike in yields raises the prospect of it doing so imminently.

For this, much will depend on inflation and the Fed’s reaction to it. As I wrote in my EMR this morning, given just how far the Fed is behind the curve it’s fair to say that if the post-GFC cycle could be erased from people’s memory banks, then I think markets might be pricing 300-400bps of hikes this year. However the fact that the last decade was so moribund from an activity and inflation point of view means that markets still refuse to believe the Fed can get very far in this cycle. The market is collectively anchored to the trends of the last cycle. However remember that before the FOMC 9 months ago in June 2021 the Fed and the market were hardly pricing in any rate moves until 2024, and only 3 hikes for 2022 as recently as the start of this year. Overall there has been a constant misunderstanding of this cycle which is totally different to the last. Clearly this view is changing but the c.240bps of total hikes now priced in for 2022 still isn’t a huge year of tightening historically.


2. Two Year Treasury Yields Surge….5s to 30s Invert

Bloomberg-Yields on two-year Treasuries surged as much as 14 basis points to 2.41% to lead increases across the curve, as traders priced in two full percentage points of Fed increases over the remainder of this year. Yields on five-year notes rose above those on 30-year bonds, suggesting some investors anticipate an economic downturn and perhaps even a recession.

Global Bond Rout Deepens on Fear Rate Hikes Will Stoke Recession-By

Anchalee Worrachate and

Garfield Clinton Reynolds

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-27/global-bond-rout-sends-australian-yields-to-highest-since-2014?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L


3. As Rates Rise…U.S. Dollar Gets Stronger..

www.stockcharts.com


4. 5 Years in a Row and 7 of Last 10 Years…Venture Capital Leads Returns Among Alternative Investments


5. Record Quarter for Commodities

Commodities: It’s been quite a quarter for commodities.

Source: BofA Global Research; @MikeZaccardi

From the Daily Shot Blog https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-28th-2022/


6. S&P Rolling One-Year Frequency of Returns

From Michael Batnick Irrelevant Investor Blog

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/03/28/talk-your-book-protecting-the-downside/


7. Emerging Market Bonds Worst Start in 26 Years

www.stockcharts.com


8. Streaming vs. Cable

Barrons

Barrons By

Nicholas Jasinski  https://www.barrons.com/articles/netflix-stock-disney-paramount-streaming-51648171934?mod=past_editions


9. Top Home Price Gains by State

From The  Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter


10. I leave 30% of my day unscheduled, and it’s done wonders for my creativity and focus. Here’s how it works.

  • Michael Thompson is a writer and leadership and communication strategist.
  • He blocks off two hours each day to take a walk, do a hobby, or network with peers. 
  • Leaving 30% of his workday unscheduled has improved his creativity and focus, he says.

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For decades, Dan Sullivan, founder of popular business coaching program “The Strategic Coach,” says he’s taken off 155 days a year entirely from work

On the 210 days he does work, he says his main strategy to stay focused on the right tasks is to leave 30% of his day unscheduled. Creating this window each day allows time to focus on growth through new opportunities and ideas, rather than spending 100% of your day on your current workload, Sullivan says.

When I first came across this advice three years ago, like a lot of things that sound nice in principle, I thought it wasn’t possible. At the time, my wife was commuting to her office an hour away from home and I was struggling to juggle our two young kids with my own work. I thought for sure leaving roughly two hours unscheduled would hamper my productivity, but I was wrong.

By sticking to Sullivan’s advice and scheduling my free time first, within three months I’d made the turn from an aspiring creative to a decently paid one, despite being a relative newbie to the online writing and coaching world. Here’s what following the 30% rule helps me accomplish.

1. I can create more ‘Eureka’ moments

It’s not a coincidence that a lot of people come up with their best ideas outside of the office. More often than not, the key to getting my ideas to connect is giving them room to breathe. Since adopting the 30% rule, every day from 12 p.m. to 2 p.m. I shut down my computer and do just that. I use this window to get outside of the house for a midday walk or run, spend time studying Spanish, go grocery shopping, or simply allow myself to zone out.

By creating this space, I’ve been able to come up with a steady stream of ideas for bi-weekly articles over the last three years. I can’t count the number of times I’ve thought of the perfect one-liner for a client’s project or untied a mental knot while out for a midday walk. When I get back to work at 2 p.m., I feel refreshed and ready to bring the same level of focus to my afternoons as I do my mornings.

2.  I have time to tend to my network

In addition to getting out of the house, I also use this unscheduled time to reach out to new people or catch up with old friends. This may sound basic, but it saved me financially when COVID-19 came on the scene. Like a lot of people, I lost half of my work contracts overnight. But thanks to my proactive habit of reaching out to people and maintaining good connections, people in my network passed along new opportunities which helped me replace what was canceled.

Prior to implementing the 30% rule, I had a tendency to view networking as an “if time allows” activity. Proactively carving out time to stay in contact with people opened my eyes very quickly to the reality that strong networks are much easier to maintain when done consistently. We all know the importance of networking — often, the opportunities we’re given are a direct reflection of the company we keep.

It doesn’t have to be a constant back and forth — maintaining your network can be as simple as sending a quick email or leaving a short voicemail letting someone know you’re thinking about them.

3. I’ve improved my ability to prioritize

Having a million things running through your mind is the fastest way to sabotage your primary goals.

Treating my unscheduled time as close to non-negotiable as possible — combined with the time-restraint strategy of less time to work — forced me to really think about which tasks truly move my work forward and helped me weed out those that don’t.

One of the ways I do this is by following Sullivan’s advice of capping my daily to-do list at three tasks. Every evening, before wrapping up work, I take 10 minutes to map out my to-dos for the following day and then I write them down on individual note cards. This allows me to start each morning with clarity. Seeing the stack of completed tasks also reminds me that even on days when I feel like I’m not doing enough, I absolutely am.

How to get the 30% rule to work for you

The key to making the 30% rule work is breaking out your calendar at the end of each week  and proactively scheduling time for yourself for the upcoming week first — before getting bombarded with requests from other people.

I’m at my best when working in three-hour time blocks and for the entirety of 2022, I have a two-hour break in the middle of the day written into my old-school calendar above my desk so it’s visible. If you work better in shorter time blocks, try carving out four 30-minute increments of space throughout your day and use it to change up your environment as much as possible by moving to a different room to work on a hobby, taking a walk outside, etc.

Following the 30% rule isn’t always easy —  there are days of course when either my kids or client deadlines bite into this time. But that’s the best part — since I already built “open” time into my schedule, I don’t have to stress or work late if I occasionally get thrown off course.

If you’re an entrepreneur or you’re working remotely and don’t have to be glued to your PC all day, give the 30% rule a shot. If you’re back in the office and working a 9-to-5, propose it to your manager or team — having schedule flexibility has been shown to increase job satisfaction and reduce work-related stress.

It took me a long time to learn that always being ‘on’ truly is the enemy of productivity. Now that I’ve experienced the benefits of scheduling downtime first, the idea of working more to accomplish less isn’t nearly as enticing as stepping away to allow the dots to better connect.

Michael Thompson is a communication strategist who assists individuals and organizations to grow their influence in the new world through the power of words. To learn more about his work, visit here and receive a free 12-step guide to become a more memorable storyteller and persuasive writer.

https://www.businessinsider.com/30-rule-unscheduled-time-improve-creativity-focus-at-work-2022-3

Topley’s Top 10 – March 28, 2022

1. Commodities Historical vs. S&P

Capital Group

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/is-spike-commodity-prices-sustainable.html?sfid=1988901890&cid=80693875&et_cid=80693875&cgsrc=SFMC&alias=D-btn-LP-6-A1cta-Advisor


2. Where to Allocate in Case of Stagflation

Living with Stagflation: So you’ve decided to move on with your life and just “live with stagflation”. Here’s what history says about where to allocate…(n.b. past performance does not necessarily = future, etc)

Source: @AndreasSteno

From Callum Thomas Topdown Charts

https://www.topdowncharts.com/chartstorm


3. Household Allocation to Equities Historically Points to Tops in S&P

From Steve Blumenthal CMG Wealth   https://www.cmgwealth.com/ri-category/on-my-radar/


4. Industrial Sector Margins ..Rails Highest

(20) Stef ⚡️ (@dyankov91) / Twitter


5. Russia 35% of World Uranium


6. Country Performance Since Covid Low

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/country-performance-since-covid-low


7. RV Shipment Data Highest Ever

Zerohedge-New RV shipment data from the RV Industry Association’s (RVIA) February 2022 survey of manufacturers revealed demand for this time of year is at some of the highest levels ever.

RVIA said total RV shipments last month topped 53,722 units, an increase of 11.3% compared to the 48,286 units shipped during the same month last year. RV shipments jumped 13.6% through February versus the same point last year with 107,012 wholesale shipments.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rv-shipments-soar-record-time-year


8. Nearly half the country requires no permit to carry a concealed weapon — and it’s a growing trend

Source: Washington Post From Barry Ritholtz Blog https://ritholtz.com/2022/03/sunday-reads-266/


9. Contemporary Art Has Outperformed Stocks for 25 Years

In the 993 days since starting this newsletter, we’ve seen thousands of charts about investing. But few struck us like this one above.

When you see numbers like this, it’s easy to see why billionaires and hedge fund managers battle for paintings in auction houses across the globe.

Going once, going twice…

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10. How to Become Truly Confident

By Jordan Harbinger | October 13, 2020 | 

Confidence is one of those game-changing qualities—like rapport, empathy and courage—that is both incredibly valuable and highly elusive. As soon as we “try” to be confident, we’ve already failed. As soon as we “act” more confident, we’re already pretending. Telling someone to “be more confident” is like telling someone to be taller. That’d be nice, but how?

The answer to that question requires a new approach to confidence—one that goes beyond the “fake it till you make it!” mentality, and moves toward something more authentic, more grounded and more holistic.

We need to get clear on what true confidence really looks like, so we can understand how it works, how to cultivate it and how to rediscover it when it wanes.

Most importantly, we need to approach confidence not as a fixed quality to be attained, but as a dynamic process to be engaged in throughout our lives—a process my team and I have been developing for more than 15 years, most recently through our live-training company, Six-Minute Networking.

So let’s start at the beginning and get a good handle on what confidence really is.

What Is Confidence, Exactly?

We might not always have a firm grasp of textbook confidence, but we know it when we see it. We know it because we feel it, and we know what it feels like to be around it. Which is one reason the definition of confidence can be so hard to pin down. Confidence is really an experience—both of ourselves and of other people.

We also know when we don’t feel it. In the presence of an insecure person—or, even more telling, a person pretending to be confident—we not only notice their lack of confidence, but also their shaky attempts to compensate for it.

Interestingly, when we’re in the company of an unconfident person, we often tend to feel unconfident ourselves. We struggle to organically connect, we begin second-guessing our words and choices, and we notice ourselves feeling uneasy, uncertain and unengaged.

Which is pretty fascinating if you think about it.

Confidence—and a lack of it—is one of those rare characteristics that is infectious. Lead with true confidence, and you’ll inspire it in other people. Betray a lack of confidence, however, and you’ll expose a similar lack in them. If you’ve ever spent time with a confident stranger at a cocktail party, or tried to bond with an insecure manager in a job interview, then you know how radically different these two qualities can make you feel.

But as we know, confidence is also a quality that can be affected, projected or faked. Deep insecurity can masquerade as confidence, as we often see with embattled politicians and troubled CEOs, struggling loved ones and nervous first dates. And experts continue to tell us that confidence can be “hacked,” “acquired” and “learned” if we just commit to talking, acting or looking a certain way.

Our confidence can also appear quite strong, only to crumble in the face of struggle, criticism or failure. In those moments, it seems like confidence is nothing more than a fleeting feeling, a passing belief in our own power, a temporary reprieve between periods of self-doubt.

So what is true confidence, really?

To put it simply, true confidence is a feeling of self-assurance that is grounded in an authentic experience of our own ability, perspective and sufficiency.

It’s a stable connection to the fact that we can do what we want to do, feel how we want to feel, and be who we want to be in this world.

It’s also a sense that we are enough—that we aren’t lacking in some fundamental sense that prevents us from navigating the world in a healthy, positive, productive way.

All of which, of course, are qualities we aspire to have. Confidence is an integral part of human psychology. With it, we feel engaged, purposeful, inspired. Without it, we feel rudderless, wary, fearful. Consciously or unconsciously, we know how important confidence really is.

Still, you probably know relatively unconfident people who manage to get ahead in life. You might believe that your own confidence is secondary to the quality of your work, your relationships and your overall personality. You might even suspect that confidence isn’t a quality to be trusted, given that it can be affected, inherited or “turned on” at a moment’s notice.

So it’s worth asking…

Why Does Confidence Matter?

It’s an excellent question. And while it might seem painfully obvious to those who are already interested in working at it, confidence actually does matter—for four key reasons.

1. Confidence is an amplifier of quality and success.

Contrary to the view of many self-help experts, confidence is not a proxy for quality, depth or character. It should not be an end in and of itself, and it will never compensate for good old-fashioned hard work. Even the most confident people need to be confident about something—themselves, their work, their identities—and confidence divorced from content will always fall apart sooner or later.

Instead, we think about true confidence as an essential part of our character and work.

It’s a layer to everything we do, say and put out into the world, from our work to our relationships, our opinions to our decisions. Confidence acts as fuel on the fire of whatever we touch. We still need a good fire—we will always need to do the work—but without the fuel, the fire can only grow so large. Look at any massive and consistent success—from Jay-Z to the iPad, Honey Nut Cheerios to Tesla, Michael Jordan to Walmart—and you’ll find a sense of confidence at its core.

Interestingly, many high performers resist this view of confidence. They believe that if their work is strong enough, if their skills are advanced enough, or if their personalities are likable enough, they won’t need confidence. They believe, in other words, that their strengths will speak for themselves. Which is true, of course. The question is: how well?

Ironically, it’s some of the most talented people in the world who dismiss the importance of confidence. In my experience—based on hundreds of interviews with top performers and years of coaching clients, corporations and the military—it’s precisely their talent that makes them so skeptical. How impressive would their work really be if it depended on something as vague as self-assurance? How would they feel about their talent if their success ultimately depended on personality?

These are worrying questions for people who have been trained their whole lives to value their skills and performance above all else.

But it’s not the case that these people completely lack confidence. What they have is contextual confidence. Within the narrow context of their specialty or world—coding, writing, statistical analysis, business development, team meetings—they actually do enjoy a certain degree of confidence. It’s a critical type of confidence that comes with time, dedication and expertise.

Outside of that context, however, they waver. They don’t have the kind of generalized confidence that infuses everything they do, in and around their work: the way they present their deliverables, the way they engage with different types of colleagues and partners, the way they navigate their careers in the bigger picture, and so on.

That lack of generalized confidence tends to make them double down on the areas in which they do feel confident. And so they remain in their secure confidence bubbles, focusing on the silos and tasks and roles where they feel most competent, which guarantees that they won’t tackle new skills and situations that would expose their lack of generalized confidence.

Nate, an immensely talented network architect at a cloud security company, recently attended our live training program. After years of exceptional work with little recognition and no major promotions, he decided it was finally time to seek some additional help.

Once he completed the training on relationship building, self-analysis and practical exercises, he told me why he had been dreading the process so much. He knew, subconsciously, that he had a profound weakness in his general confidence and that the better he became in his technical role, the less he wanted to work through any perceived deficiencies in his personality.

But the transformation was worth it. He entered the program as a quiet, self-effacing, generally avoidant personality with a gift for engineering. He left the program as an excited, gregarious, curious personality with a demonstrable passion for it.

A few months later, I received an email from Nate with a life update. After six weeks back at the office, his managers began visibly responding to his work in team meetings. Though it was always strong, they suddenly seemed to take notice of his contributions—no doubt because of the way he was now presenting it. Soon after, his colleagues also mentioned a change—not just in his technical role, but in his personal style, his excitement and his approachability. He was promoted to manager of his team ahead of a major rollout, which also helped secure two other job offers from competing companies.

As if by magic, Nate’s professional life had completely turned around. But it wasn’t magic. Just a couple months earlier, he had plateaued professionally by focusing exclusively on his deliverables. The moment he began working on himself, he created the exciting opportunities he always wanted. He had invested in confidence, which amplified his excellent work.

Stories like Nate’s are a reminder that confidence can be consciously cultivated. More importantly, they’re evidence that confidence matters. And it matters most when it’s developed in conjunction with hard work and meaningful substance.

Whether we like it or not, the quality of our work alone will never get us where we want to go. But when that quality links up with true confidence, our work takes on a new caliber and begins to resonate with people in a much more powerful way.

2. Confidence is essential to influence and leadership.

As we just saw, the success of our professional lives depends on both what we do and how we do it.

What we do is a matter of technical skill. How we do it is a function of confidence.

One of the most important aspects of that how is our degree of influence and the quality of our leadership. The impact we have on our work products, the control we exert in our organizations and the influence we have on our partners all require true confidence. These confidence-based skills are what separate technicians from managers, employees from leaders, and artisans from artists.

Selby, a producer at a major radio station, recently came to our program to work specifically on these skills. As she told us on her first day, she was a deeply shy person who was remarkable at her job. She spent her days booking celebrity guests, only to experience crippling anxiety when they arrived at the station. She loved her colleagues, but was devastated to learn that they regularly farmed out work to her knowing that she was incapable of saying no. And she hadn’t risen up through the ranks of the station, despite four years of consistently great work behind the scenes.

After graduating from the program, Selby went back to work. She continued the exercises we gave her and used them to improve her interactions with the high-profile people she met. With a handle on her fear of setting boundaries, she began telling her colleagues what she would and wouldn’t do and watched as the station’s productivity skyrocketed. As a result of these (and many other) tools and mindsets, she was promoted to manager of the entire station six months later. A year after that, she was given her own show.

The difference in Selby’s performance was not a function of talent or discipline. She didn’t become smarter, more skilled or more committed. She became connected to her confidence. And that confidence opened a window into a suite of skills—from delegation to politics, leadership to conversational banter—that had eluded her for years.

3. Confidence isn’t just about style. It’s also about substance.

Selby’s story is also a reminder that confidence and substance are intimately connected. While a lack of confidence in a typical person is always challenging, a lack of confidence in a truly capable person can be crippling.

Why?

Because an incongruence between the quality of your work and your level of confidence can actually amplify the deficiency.

Your work might perform well, but by succeeding, it will end up highlighting your insecurity even further. At the same time, your partners and colleagues will expect a degree of confidence that reflects how strong your work is and will be all the more disappointed when they find it missing.

Once people sense that gap, they’ll often begin to doubt whether the work is as strong as it first seemed. That, in turn, can make you doubt your judgment about your own work, creating a dangerous feedback loop. Insecurity will give rise to new feelings of doubt, fear and confusion, which will eventually creep into your choices. Your strong contextual confidence will begin to erode, and your weaker generalized confidence will start to infect it.

So these two types of confidence are actually closely related. As much as we want to believe otherwise, we can’t succeed without having both types of confidence, which are essential to creating and capitalizing on your work.

4. Confidence protects us.

In an increasingly complex and competitive world, confidence is one of the greatest weapons we can develop. At the same time, a lack of confidence is also one of our greatest vulnerabilities because it broadcasts to the world how susceptible we really are.

As we’re about to explore in more depth, confidence manifests in a number of highly visible ways: our body language, vocal tonality, verbal cues and micro-decisions. No matter how hard we try, we can’t really hide how we feel about ourselves. We broadcast our weaknesses wherever we go.

We wear our lack of confidence like a badge, and that badge unconsciously tells the world how to treat us.

Unfortunately, there will always be a segment of the population ready to capitalize on those weaknesses. In some cases, that vulnerability will invite trouble in relatively minor ways: a shifty cab driver offering us a ride off the meter, a gifted insurance salesman upselling us to a higher premium, a narcissistic friend dominating our time and energy. In other cases, that weakness will get us into deeper trouble: a predatory lender locking us into a dangerous loan, a manipulative family member controlling our happiness and resources, a power-hungry manager exploiting us in the workplace. Of course, the possibilities can get even more troubling.

If you take a moment to think back, you can probably remember a time you were taken advantage of in a moment of low confidence. That wasn’t an accident. It was your degree of confidence at the time that exposed you to that situation, and it was your relationship to your confidence that determined how well you handled it.

The outcome of that experience might have taught you a lesson and increased your confidence in the future. Or it might have confirmed what you subconsciously believe about yourself and left you vulnerable to a similar scenario down the road.

So in addition to enhancing our work and character, confidence also helps protect us, physically and emotionally. That’s why working on it matters so much. We aren’t just talking about style and appearances. We’re talking fundamentally about who we are, how we present ourselves in the world, and how the world will treat us in return.

Now that we have a handle on why confidence matters, let’s explore some practical principles and techniques for achieving it.

How Do I Become More Confident?

As we’ve discussed, confidence is a tough quality to pin down. Because it’s more of a dynamic experience than a static trait, it can be a difficult concept to teach.

In our experience, the best way to build confidence is to isolate the elements that comprise it—the behaviors, characteristics and mindsets that create true self-assurance. Then, we can put those pieces together in a way that creates true, lasting, generalized confidence.

Starting with…

1. Nonverbal communication.

As we just touched upon, confidence is expressed most profoundly through our bodies. No matter how well we speak, the way we feel about ourselves will always manifest in our posture, our gait, our hand movements and our facial features.

And because these cues are nonverbal—bypassing the more intellectual language centers in our brains—other people pick up on them viscerally and quickly. They receive a vivid snapshot of our inner confidence the moment we walk into a room.

If we enter a room standing up straight with our shoulders back, chins up and eyes engaged, then others will viscerally perceive us as confident. If we enter with our shoulders hunched, brows furrowed, and eyes shifty or staring at the floor, then they’ll viscerally perceive us as unconfident (if they notice us at all). And they make this judgment in microseconds—just as we do of them.

That’s why body language is such an important part of strong first impressions. We have to remember that people’s impressions are made when they see us, not when we first interact with them. Since we can’t control when that happens, we can’t just turn our confidence on when we think we need it. We need to internalize and embody it at every moment, so it becomes part of our observable presence wherever we go.

To do that, we recommend the doorway drill, a simple technique that will force you to check your body language whenever you walk through a door. The exercise is simple: Every time you approach a doorway, take a moment to stand up straight, pull your shoulders back, uncross your arms, and look up and ahead. These are the signals of positive body language, and they both reflect and reinforce confidence.

To help form that habit, we often tell our students to place post-it notes at eye level in their doorways at home and in the office. Every time they see a post-it, they remember that it’s a reminder to check their body language. After a week or two, the post-its become unnecessary. The visual cue creates a habit that lives in their bodies, and they automatically begin checking their body language whenever they walk through any doorway out in the world.

While body language might seem superficial—it is, after all, about how confidence appears on the “outside”—it’s actually very profound. Because while confidence informs body language, body language also has a powerful effect on building confidence. If we carry ourselves confidently, we teach our bodies to experience confidence. And the more confident we become, the more we reinforce the behavior to carry ourselves that way out in the world.

This is one of the beauties of body language work: Addressing the symptoms of confidence can actually influence the causes of it.

So commit to strong, positive body language and make a conscious effort to form habits that make your nonverbal communication automatic. Notice the body language that signals confidence in people you meet and consider internalizing those choices in yourself.

Most importantly, notice how your nonverbal communication changes the way you feel in social situations and how it changes the way other people feel about you. You’d be amazed how much of confidence depends on the things we don’t say.

2. Vocal tonality.

After body language, our voice is the most powerful organ of our confidence. Vocal tonality—which includes not just the physical quality of our voice, but our pitch, articulation, syntax, volume and intention—expresses and reinforces our innermost sense of self.

Vocal tonality is notoriously difficult to teach in an article, but we can touch on some key techniques for improving this dimension of confidence so that we can use it to enhance our self-assurance.

Speak in statements, not questions.

While you’re probably no stranger to the high rising terminal—also known as “upspeak,” or the tendency to end sentences with a rising pitch intonation, as if asking a question—you might not know how much of a role intonation plays in our confidence, both perceived and actual.

When we express statements as questions (“Hi, my name is Steven?”; “I’m applying for the content manager role in marketing?”; “I’ve been working here three years?”), we subtly communicate the doubt, uncertainty and informational disparity implied by a question. As a growing body of research now shows, upspeak can significantly diminish our hireabilitycompromise our chances for promotion, and affect the way people perceive our power and authority—which is unfortunate, since many of us adopt it out of politeness and a desire to be understood.

One of the best ways to smooth out the high rising terminal is to do a simple visualization exercise. Imagine a sentence as a hill, rising from the earth, peaking and then sloping back down. When we engage in upspeak, we stop at the top of that hill, leaving ourselves and the audience in a subtle state of uncertainty. As you speak, impose the image of the hill on your sentence and commit to coming back down the other side of the slope. That will help your audience rest in the declarative finish that communicates confidence and further increase your confidence the more you speak.

Articulate and enunciate.

The way we treat our words—literally, as they form in our mouth—is a signal and a function of confidence. To increase our confidence in conversation, we should also commit to articulating and enunciating our words more emphatically. When we do, we communicate confidence to the people around us. We also teach our bodies to become more confident the more we speak.

A helpful exercise here is to take a champagne cork (which is larger than a standard cork), place it in your mouth, and read a passage from a book with strong dramatic flair. Because you’ll be forced to work overtime as the cork resists your efforts, your mouth will become super articulate. On an emotional level, enunciating strongly will force you to commit to your words—to take them more seriously—which is, of course, a hallmark of confidence.

Avoid the use of filler words.

Filler words such as “like,” “um” and “so” also play a major role in confidence. And while we don’t believe you need to remove them entirely in order to be taken seriously—these words can actually make your speech friendlier, more colloquial and more organic if used properly—filler words tend to undermine our authority when they become a crutch.

In many cases, we use filler words to patch silences in conversation. (“So… yeah, I mean, what do think about the new, uh… the new project?”) We often do this because we’re subconsciously afraid that if we hand the reins over to the person we’re speaking with, we’ll lose control of the conversation or be responsible for any gaps. But as we know, confidence means trusting that our words and presence are enough to be compelling. It also means trusting that the other person can and should help carry a conversation. When we remove these types of filler words in conversation, we stop subtly buttressing our unconfident speech, and we signal to the other person that we trust in their confidence, too.

Of course, we also use filler words to qualify our speech. (“Well, I just feel that, like, there’s a better way to, you know, present this, uh, deliverable, so…”) Sometimes we do this strategically, but more often we do this subconsciously, which has a similar effect on our confidence—and the way people perceive it—as upspeak does. In a professional setting, filler words can have major implications in team meetings, salary negotiations and conflict resolution.

A helpful exercise to weed out filler words is to record yourself in conversation. You can use the voice memo app on your phone (or any old-school recording device) to record a meeting or your side of a conversation on the phone. Listen to the recording for a few minutes every day for a week and notice how often filler words creep into your everyday speech.

I then recommend going a step further and exporting the file to an audio editor (Audacity is an excellent free app) and editing out all of the filler words that pop up. While it might seem a bit obsessive, it’s actually one of the greatest ways to analyze your speech. I only noticed my own dependence on filler words after spending hours editing out the “ums” and “so’s” on my podcast, The Jordan Harbinger Show. Once I realized how much of a crutch these words had become, I caught myself before I used them and found my confidence growing exponentially.

With body language and vocal tonality under our belts, let’s turn now to the more profound psychological underpinnings of confidence.

3. Authentic vulnerability.

As much as experts argue that confidence can be affected, that kind of superficial confidence—built on acquired body language, forced vocal tonality, rehearsed social scripts, and so on—will never create true confidence because it will never be authentic.

Authenticity, at its core, is the quality of being fully yourself. Being authentic means being emotionally honest, clear about your experience of the world and free of pretense. It means responding organically to every moment of life—the positive and the negative—and not feeling the need to unnecessarily “pretend” about your feelings, beliefs or experiences in any way.

In everyday language, we call this quality being “real.” And when we meet someone “real,” we feel that we’re in the presence of something exceptional. The reason, of course, is that we’re in the presence of true confidence. We feel that we’re meeting ourselves—that is, our best selves.

Authenticity transforms normal insecurity into grounded confidence. While faked confidence hides insecurity, weakness and self-doubt, true authenticity owns and acknowledges these less pleasant experiences in a way that ultimately enhances our sense of self.

It’s a strange paradox. It’s also a very useful one.

But to acknowledge these parts of ourselves requires more than just authenticity. It requires vulnerability. It requires us to open up and be exposed—to be seen—as the people we really are.

When authenticity and vulnerability link up—when we become organically and honestly open to sharing our true experiences, even when those experiences make us seem insecure—they actually create true confidence.

Why?

In short, because honesty and openness are the raw stuff of true confidence.

By allowing people to see who we really are, we stop offering a proxy version of ourselves to hide the aspects of our personalities we’d rather not show. And by embracing who we really are, we also relinquish control over how other people might perceive us—which, if you think about it, is a classic hallmark of insecurity.

In other words, we don’t become confident by never feeling insecure. We become confident by dropping the need to hide our insecurity in the first place.

It took me years to realize that we don’t need to always feel confident to be confident. And we don’t need to act confident to appear confident. All we need to do is respond authentically to our experiences, and share those experiences—in the appropriate amounts, in appropriate ways, in appropriate contexts—even (and, ironically enough, especially!) when they reveal our lack of confidence. Despite what we’ve been told, vulnerability isn’t weakness—it’s true strength.

This is a principle that the world’s greatest athletes, most successful entrepreneurs and most prolific artists understand: the alchemical power of authentic vulnerability. As Kobe Bryant famously said, “I have self-doubt. I have insecurity. I have fear of failure … We all have self-doubt. You don’t deny it, but you also don’t capitulate to it. You embrace it.”

By embracing it, Bryant managed to authentically acknowledge and vulnerably admit to his insecurity, self-doubt and fear of failure, which only enhanced his grounded sense of self.

That possibility is open to every single one of us.

A few weeks ago, I was invited to a dinner party for a bunch of broadcasters and media folks. The room was filled with smart, talented, ambitious people, and none of us knew one another. At dinner, I was seated next to a quiet guy who didn’t say much at first. As we often do in these cases, I assumed that he either wasn’t very friendly or was struggling with his social confidence. After a few minutes of conversation, however, he said something that took me by surprise.

“I’m kind of nervous to be around all these new people,” he confessed with a shy smile. “I’m used to producing my show alone in my house, and I really didn’t feel like going out tonight, but I forced myself to come and make some new friends.”

In an instant, my entire perception of this person had changed.

He was still exhibiting the same unconfident behaviors, but by unabashedly owning and sharing them, he shifted my perception from “unfriendly” to “human,” from “nervously unconfident” to “authentically vulnerable.” What he did, really, was offer me a window into his experience, and that experience was deeply honest.

That gave me permission to tell him that that I was a little overwhelmed, too, and just like that, we were bonding over our shared experience of the evening. He ended up being my favorite person at that dinner party, and we’re still good friends to this day.

So as you move through your life, make a conscious effort to commit to authentic vulnerability. At the same time, avoid the trap of inauthentic vulnerability—such as oversharing, strategic revelations and inappropriately personal stories—which are really just another way of simulating confidence.

Notice what this mindset does to your sense of self. Notice how confidence and insecurity are totally compatible, as long as you drop the impulse to self-protect.

Most importantly, notice that you cannot be confident without acknowledging your true experience moment to moment. That is a profound inner shift that goes deeper than superficial behaviors. It’s precisely the raw stuff of trust, rapport and relationship building—key skills that thrive on authentic confidence.

4. A process-oriented mindset.

By now you might have noticed an underlying theme in our approach to confidence.

Whereas popular self-help usually treats confidence as a static, goal-oriented, binary quality—basically, you either have it or you don’t—true confidence is, in fact, a process. It ebbs and flows. It accelerates and decelerates. It takes hits and has to recover. And it’s always evolving over the course of our lives as we take on new situations, challenges and goals.

Thinking about confidence as a process, rather than an end in and of itself, opens us up to a much healthier relationship to our own self-esteem.

We no longer believe that we must be confident one hundred percent of the time in order to be effective. We stop beating ourselves up for having moments of confusion, insecurity or self-doubt, which are perfectly normal parts of a healthy ego. And we don’t buy into the notion that if we just look or act or behave a certain way, confidence will magically appear.

Most importantly, we avoid falling into the trap of thinking we can develop “unshakable confidence.”

Unshakable confidence is a myth, and when you see it, you can bet that there’s some insecurity being protected beneath the surface. Confidence that can be shaken isn’t insecurity or weakness; it’s a sign that you can work through setbacks, criticism and growth. Which, if you think about it, is the whole point of having confidence in the first place!

Process-oriented confidence is the opposite of the “fake it till you make it” philosophy.

While the “fake it till you make it” approach suggests we should pretend our way toward true confidence, the process-oriented approach suggests we should become our way toward true confidence.

And while “faking it” does play a small role in confidence—for example, inviting confidence into your body using the nonverbal communication and vocal tonality exercises we mentioned earlier—it will never build true confidence. One way or another, simulating confidence will always create new problems.

It’s worth discussing a few of the most common, so we understand the risks of inauthentic confidence.

For one thing, faking it till we make it creates an inauthentic self—the supposedly “confident” person— which creates a division between the person you really are and the person you’re pretending to be. At best, we become two insecure people: the true self desperate for confidence, and the false self grasping at confidence in order to hide the true self.

As a result, that false self creates new feelings of fraudulence and self-doubt that will, sooner or later, betray you when you need your confidence the most. (This, in a nutshell, is impostor syndrome.) Eventually, one of two things will happen. Either your false self will break down, revealing the unaddressed insecurities lurking beneath. Or it will grow stronger and stronger, moving you further and further away from a healthy and secure sense of self.

The entire act of faking confidence will also become exhausting, confusing and alienating, as keeping up appearances becomes your primary objective. The fear of being exposed as less than confident will only grow. That in turn will make you double down on faking it in order to protect the false self, which will further increase the cost of being exposed—a truly vicious cycle.

For all these reasons, we at Six-Minute Networking don’t advocate for the “fake it till you make it” approach. Instead of acquiring confidence by building a new self, we prefer to work with our students to develop confidence by being their true selves. We then give them exercises, principles and mindsets that help them develop more and more authentic confidence. Anything else is a short-term fix, an unreliable hack and a recipe for even deeper insecurity.

A process-oriented approach means letting go of the impulse to pretend that we’re confident when we’re not. It also means accepting that our confidence will take hits from time to time. If we authentically acknowledge when our confidence takes a hit, then we put ourselves in a position to rediscover it—not by faking our way back into confidence, but by doing the work required to rebuild it. In practical terms, that means putting time into our craft, investing in new skills, repairing relationships, sticking with difficult goals, and—most importantly—being patient as our confidence steadily evolves.

That’s the stuff of true and authentic confidence. That’s how we can work on confidence without compromising our identities and values. That’s how we survive when our confidence takes a hit, and how we can actually enhance our self-assurance when we struggle. That’s how we become truly confident, by committing to the life-changing process of simply being ourselves.

https://www.success.com/the-art-of-true-confidence/

Jordan Harbinger

Articles

Jordan Harbinger hosts The Jordan Harbinger Show, where he deconstructs the playbooks of the most successful people on earth and shares their strategies, perspectives and insights with the rest of us. He’s also the co-founder of Six-Minute Networking, a training company that offers workshops on nonverbal communication, persuasion and influence to corporate and military organizations.

Topley’s Top 10 – March 25, 2022

1.5 Out of 6 Days 1%+ Return….What happens next?

In the table below we have aggregated forward returns for the prior 4 occurrences to see how the index faired following a period in which 5 out of 6 days were north of 1%. The last time the index saw this occur was in November of 2020, while each of the other three dates followed significant downturns in the market. Looking at the forward returns, we observed that 1-week later the index pushed higher on average, while 2-weeks later the index appeared to pullback slightly in 2 out of the 4 occurrences. Looking out 1-month and further returns were positive on average and generally positive on individual occurrences, except for 3-months following the October 1974 date. 6- and 12-months out, SPX gained 16.97% and 26.67% on average lending one to think that the long-term outlook is positive following 5 out of 6 days being north of 1%. While we don’t know for sure we could see the index move higher from here, the historical tendency is nothing to be ignored.    

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


2. Top 100 Corporate Pensions Most Funded Since 2008

Zerohedge blog

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-retro-fitted-narratives-nomura-warns-equities-are-still-flows-positioning-story


3. Netflix and Disney have Given Up Nearly All of their Pandemic Gains

 

Barrons

https://www.barrons.com


 4. Fertilizer Price Index Up 3x…Breaks Out to 20 Year Highs

Commodities:  Next, fertilizer prices and shares of companies in that sector have been surging.

Source: @AndreasSteno

The Daily Shot https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-23rd-2022/


5. With Huge Spike in Used Car Prices….Here is Perspective of Prices Since 1980

Jack Ablin Cresset–The price of a new automobile, adjusted for inflation, is more than 43 per cent cheaper than it was in 1980, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Services costs, for work that generally couldn’t be outsourced, rose more than 26 per cent relative to inflation over the same period. The favorable blend of restrained inflation and higher productivity helped lower America’s inflation rate from a whopping 12.5 per cent at the end of 1980, to a scant 1.4 per cent by 2020. Today’s 7.9 per cent inflation rate is the highest reading since the early 1980s.

Graph 3, Market Update, 03.15.2022

https://cressetcapital.com/post/globalization-40-years-on-adjustment-not-reversal/


6. Poll of 132 Oil and Gas Firms….Why are you restraining growth?

https://twitter.com/JosephPolitano


7. Canada Increasing LNG Output by 300,000 Barrells …Canada has Cleanest LNG


8. Large Investors Own 6% of U.S. Homes….Small Investors 27%…..Traditional Homeowners 67%

Large investors (own 10+ homes) purchased 6% of the homes in the country in January.
Small investors (<10 homes) purchased 27%.
Owner occupants purchased 67%.
The total investor share (33%) is a 5% larger market share than the average over the last decade.

No alternative text description for this image

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/


9. Rising Rents Huge Component of Inflation.

Pew Research

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/03/23/key-facts-about-housing-affordability-in-the-u-s/ft_22-03-23_housingaffordability_2a/


10. How to Decide What to Work On

Working hard all day doesn’t matter if it’s on the wrong tasks. The most critical factor in your productivity is what you decide to work on.

The question of what to work on is under-discussed. There’s plenty of advice on getting work done: setting up good habits, creating productivity systems, project management and planning. Yet, there’s relative silence for the crucial decision of which projects to pursue.

Choosing what to work on is hard because you can’t know in advance how any project will turn out. If you knew what perspective was most worthwhile, the right choice would be obvious. It would simply be a matter of doing the work. But these choices exist outside of any particular vantage point. We don’t have this information, and we have to choose anyway.

Ruling Out, Ruling In

A fundamental distinction is between having too many ideas or too few.

Too many ideas creates the problem of prioritization. You need to find reasons to disqualify projects. Evaluate your current activities and cull those that don’t make the cut.

Too few ideas can leave you feeling stuck. You want things to be better, but nothing pops out as worth pursuing. As a result, you put half-hearted efforts into tasks you’re not sure will work.

The “right” quantity of ideas isn’t a given. Instead, it’s a mental threshold for what’s worth pursuing. Dialing it up forces you to focus, and dialing it down lets you explore more options.  Plans often generate ongoing or future commitments. Thus, there’s often a lag between when you realize your threshold is off and when you can adjust it. Whether you’re set too far in one direction may feel obvious, even as you struggle to change it.

Both reason and intuition factor into your settings here. Feeling burned out or bored can cause you to adjust. But so can looking at your calendar and realizing, actually no, you can’t take on another client.

Coming Up With Ideas

The origin of ideas often seems mysterious. How can you force yourself to have a creative spark?

Except, in practice, most ideas—even groundbreaking ones—tend to be derivative or incremental. Even ideas that look original usually start out as a permutation on something already extant. Given background and context, even the most radical suggestions look like incremental steps.

This suggests that the best way to have better ideas is to expose yourself to more ideas. Which ideas? The ones used by people who are accomplishing things in roughly the direction you’d like to go.

Find people who are achieving the sorts of success you’d like for yourself then ask what type of projects they pursue. If you can extract the general idea behind these projects, and why they worked, you’ll narrow the space of possibilities considerably.

Making the Choice

A threshold for action is a crude way for filtering your projects. Advice to “do less” or “do more” misses the crux of the issue. Which efforts should you drop? Which ones should you undertake?

Having adjusted your threshold, and hopefully immersed yourself in a range of possible idea templates, now you need to cross over from a notion to a commitment.

A commitment can come from either direction. You can lower your threshold for action, generate a new idea and decide to pursue it. Or you can tighten your standards and commit to focusing on a pursuit you are already engaged in. Either way, the decision remains.

I find it useful to separate deciding from executing. The act of deciding needs to be realistic, perhaps even somewhat pessimistic. Executing that decision needs an almost irrational confidence and headstrong spirit. Failure to separate the two tends to result in impulsive choices and irresolute action.

For instance, the decision to start a business needs to be clear-eyed about the risks, your plan, and your odds of success. However, once you start that business, you need to be zealously committed to doing everything you can to make it work.

One way to help manage these two conflicting mental states is to separate them in time. Make a decision, and don’t let yourself change it for a month. The delay forces you to stop second-guessing yourself when you need to work. The nearby offramp helps you avoid worrying that you’re committing indefinitely to a potentially ruinous choice.

Finding a Path and Walking It

Much of life boils down to figuring out a path for yourself and then getting yourself to actually walk it.

It’s easy to dismiss either half of the problem. If the path seems obvious, you might think everyone who fails to walk it is simply lazy. Or perhaps you can’t find the path, so it seems everyone walking forward is a delusional striver.

But both halves of the problem interact. We often fail to stick to our plans because we’re not confident in our chosen path. And we fail to find paths forward because we don’t try enough things to find our footing.

Decision and action are always combined. The challenge is taking the next step.

Scott Young https://www.scotthyoung.com/blog/