TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 15, 2026

1. Year Over Year S&P Earnings Growth Skewed by “Other Income”

@Charlie Bilello  In the first quarter, just 3 companies (Google, Nvidia, and Amazon) saw massive gains in the “other income” category from their private investments in companies like SpaceX and Anthropic.   The total of $69 billion in “other income” was roughly 10% of the S&P 500’s overall net income for the quarter. Absent this boost, S&P 500 YoY earnings growth would have been 15% in Q1, well below the reported figure (+28%).


2. Leverage Play in S.Korea Blowing Up…350k Accounts Liquidated by Brokers Due to Margin Calls

Global Markets Investor


3. Tech Sector Volatility at Records While VIX Sitting at 16

The Kobeissi Letter


4. Semis and DRAM Record Volatility….Overall VIX Trending Down

StockCharts


5. S&P Sector Changes in P/E Ratio….5 Sectors P/E Ratios Lower in 2026

NASDAQ DORSEY WRIGHT


6. USA Oil– Out Producing Russia and Saudis

Wolf Street.

Wolf Street


7. Retail Gas Prices—Now We Need the Next Drop to 2025 Levels


8. CPI Breakdown-CNBC

CNBC


9. 10-Year Small Down Tick Post CPI

CNBC


10. 3 Top Tier Emotionally Intelligent Tendencies

Psychology Today EI is the “it” factor and doing 3 things means you have it. Erin Leonard Ph.D.

 Key points

  • Emotional intelligence is the “it” factor.
  • There are three high level EI tendencies that signify you have it.
  • Although you may not enact these tendencies every time, you try very hard to make them your norm.
  • Respond instead of react, set boundaries in place of being passive aggressive, and embrace accountability.

Emotional intelligence is the “it” factor. EI people are secure enough to handle their own flaws and continually evolve as a result. They look in the mirror instead of outsourcing all blame, and they are not fixated on the ego-win in the moment, but rather on the deeper, meaningful, and long-term priorities. Although this description portrays them as saint-like, they are certainly not. They make mistakes like everyone else and occasionally lose their temper, but overall, they routinely do 3 things that set them apart from everyone else.

1) They respond… not react.

When confronted, they quickly reflect on what the person is saying instead of immediately lashing out defensively. Their ability to think about the other person’s perspective, while looking at themselves to evaluate the merit of the confrontation, allows them to respond rather than react. They are equipped with a greater understanding of the issue; they can decide fairly whether they are at fault or not and reply with a grounded, balanced, and wise rebuttal that is not disrespectful or destructive to the relationship.

Alternatively, someone who reacts refuses to think about their part in the issue and immediately lashes out and redirects the blame onto the person who is confronting them. They deflect any accountability and use their fervor to shut down the person who is bringing up a problem. Following the confrontation, typically a person with low emotional intelligence plays the victim and acts as though they have been bullied, or they become passive-aggressive towards the person who “dares” to bring up an issue with them. Either way, the problem is not remedied, and now there is a chasm in the relationship.

2) They are not passive-aggressive… they set a boundary.

It is not fun to have your kindness taken advantage of or exploited. It is understandable to be angry in these situations, yet an emotionally intelligent person uses this as critical data. If a person repeatedly manipulates you for their own gain and does not care how it impacts you, they may be the type to react, not respond, when you tell them how you feel, which means it may be painful and useless. Instead, the emotionally intelligent person now sees this person realistically and, despite their disappointment, recognizes the importance of setting a boundary so they are not exploited again in the future. They know that this does not require them to be cold or rude. It simply means that they will be busy the next time this person needs help with something, or instead of going out to dinner with the friend who always forgets her debit card, they will propose going on a walk instead. Basically, they think creatively about how to casually implement a boundary that protects them from being used in the future.

A person who is angry because they perceive a friend took advantage of them or the friend doesn’t give them their way, may seek to covertly make this friend pay, passive-aggressively. Unfortunately, this person typically attempts to sabotage the friend’s success by doing something sneaky or they talk nasty about them to key mutual acquaintances. This is the, “you hurt me, and I’ll hurt you worse” mentality. Yet, they are nice to your face. This passive aggressive approach signals a sizable deficit in emotional intelligence.

3) They apologize when they are wrong… not when they get caught.

Typically, an emotionally intelligent individual is self-aware. They care about how their actions and words impact others, especially the people with whom they are close. So, they are cognizant of how they interact. They wish to understand the people that they care about, so they are careful to listen attentively and honor the person’s feelings rather than making it about them and what they want and feel.

This self-awareness and motivation to be a good person in their friendships and relationships also allows them to catch their mistakes. Maybe they had a selfish moment or were too tired and stressed to authentically listen and offer empathy. Whatever it may be, they search their soul because, although the moment is over, it nags at them. They do not feel quite right about how they handled it. Because they are secure enough to handle their own flaws, they apologize to the person that they impacted. Their accountability fosters trust and closeness with the people in their lives and sustains strong attachments with people who share these relational qualities.

A person with deficits in emotional intelligence usually defends against truly knowing their own character flaws. They may not be strong enough to handle them. So, they resist looking at themselves and instead feel more secure critiquing others. The last thing they want to do is show any “weakness” in a relationship, so they refuse to look at the possibility that they did something hurtful or selfish…. Until they get caught. When their back is against the wall, and they have no choice but to apologize because they risk losing the person, they will. However, it may come with excuses, justifications, and minimizations, which may signify insincerity. Often, insincere apologies are a sign that the person will repeat the same mistake.

Emotional intelligence is a gift when you use it wisely. Responding instead of reacting, setting healthy boundaries in place of being passive-aggressive, and embracing accountability in a relationship rather than evading it are top-tier emotional intelligence tendencies. You can find more on this important topic in my book, How to Outsmart a Narcissist: Use Emotional Intelligence to Regain Control at Home, at Work, and in Life.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/peaceful-parenting/202607/3-top-tier-emotionally-intelligent-tendencies

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 14, 2026

1. Semiconductor Index Moved Up or Down 3% 15 Times in Last 30 Days

StockCharts


2. History of Semiconductor (SOX) Volatility

Loved by Analysts, Hated by Investors

The market got off to a bad start this week with the major indices in the red as oil and interest rates spiked sharply on renewed tensions with Iran. The semis fell nearly 5% as the SOX saw its ninth straight Monday with a gain or loss of at least 1%. The SOX has seen an average daily move of +/-3.36% over the last 50 trading days. As shown below, the only other times we’ve seen this much daily vol were in the lead-up to the Dot Com peak and then down the other side of the mountain, the Financial Crisis in late 2008, and in early 2020 during the COVID Crash.

Bespoke


3. Momentum (MTUM) Outperformance of Low Volatility Stocks (SPLV) is at Record Levels….10-Year Chart =the Big Outperformance is 2024-Now

YCharts


4. FLOWS-Active Managers Extremely Bullish

Dave Lutz Jones Trading Global investors buying stocks aggressively should consider reducing exposure, according to Bank of America Corp.’s fund manager survey.  Asset allocators have become extremely bullish, a typical warning sign for markets, with cash levels falling to an “uber-low” level of 3.6% of assets from 4.1% last month, strategists from the bank said. Positioning on US equities is now at its highest level since December 2024 at a net 24% overweight, the survey showed.


5. FLOWS-Individual Retail Investors Single Stock Buying Plummets

Retail activity. “Retail investors’ net single-stock buying has fallen to a new post-COVID low”.

Vanda Research via @kevrgordon


6. FLOWS-ETFs Dominate…State Street Projects $2.3 Trillion in Flows to ETFs 2026

State Street Investment Management Chart Pack


7. DRAM ETF -30% from High of $80…-20% One Month

Google Finance


8. Russian and Chinese Bots Now Turning Americans Against Each Other on Data Centers

NYT-China, Russia and Others Seek to Inflame Debate Over A.I. Data Centers  State actors in China, Russia and Iran have sought to exploit the U.S. public debate over the effects of the technology.

NY Times

OpenAI released this cartoon as an example of one generated with ChatGPT by people in China who the company believed were affiliated with a regional government. It is not clear what word in the title was blurred out.By Steven Lee Myers and Dustin Volz

A state-owned newspaper in China recently published a satellite image of a data center in Gainesville, Va., writing in English that the development of artificial intelligence posed a threat to Americans’ physical and financial well-being.

A comic strip made to look as if it had been published by a Maryland news outlet — created with OpenAI’s ChatGPT by people in China, the tech company said — circulated on X this year, blaming data centers for soaring electricity bills. It showed a tycoon smoking a cigar and clutching bags of cash.

A video shared on X by a known covert Russian influence operation questioned the viability of a data center that an American company, Firebird, is constructing in Armenia, the small Caucasus nation that has been a focus of Kremlin pressure. “The country’s electrical grid instability may render it useless,” the video’s narrator says.

All are examples of a push by foreign adversaries to seize on what polls have shown is deep ambivalence — verging at times on hostility — about the spread of the data centers needed to power A.I. in the United States and elsewhere.


9. 2.6% of Americans Live in Subsidized Housing

The state of Section 8

The federal government has provided rental assistance to low-income Americans since the 1937 US Housing Act, and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) now oversees eight different nationwide housing assistance programs. The latest data shows how many units the country has, who lives in them, and how long they must wait for one.

  • About 8.86 million people, or 2.6% of the US population, lived in subsidized housing in 2025. On average, residents had lived in their units for 10 years and three months.

USAFacts


10. Cities with Longest Time to Sell a Home

Market Watch

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 13, 2026

1. South Korea EWY ETF -25% Correction After Today’s Sell Off

StockCharts


2. Earnings Growth Highs…So Korean Stocks Very Cheap on Forward P/E


3. Chinese Models Huge Summer Rally in Usage

Financial Times


4. It’s All About Earnings Season

Earnings are the most important driver of any bull market and they are now shifting into their highest gear in nearly five years.

S&P 500 earnings are tracking above 23% year-over-year growth for the second quarter, but historical patterns have led FactSet to project the final figure will come in above 29%.

That would mark the highest growth rate since the end of 2021, when the index reported a 32% jump in earnings.

The early signals suggest that even 29% could be a conservative guess:

  • Of the 18 companies that have reported so far, 89% have beat estimates
  • Those 18 names together exceeded forecasts by 14.5%, nearly double the 10-year average of 7.4%
  • The S&P 500 has surpassed end-of-quarter estimates in 37 of the last 40 quarters

Opening Bell Daily


5. Earnings Growth So High…Tech Stock Forward P/E Getting Cheaper

Ryan Detrick


6. Retail Investors Not as Active


7. AAPL Makes New Highs Just Before Lawsuit vs. Open AI

StockCharts

Interesting take from Semafor on AAPL vs. Open AI Lawsuit

Semafor


8. 54% of New ETFs Using Derivatives

Howie Lindzon Another topic related to the ‘degenerate economy’ is all the ‘leveraged’ ETF’s being issued – now 33 percent of all ETF’s and 54 percent of all theses ETF’s use derivatives. I don’t think most investors fully understand what they own.

Howie Town


9. Tech Stocks and Baseball Cards 2018-2026

Barron’s


10. The hedonic treadmill-Seths Blog

When we upgrade something in our lives, the thing we used to be satisfied with is no longer satisfying.

That’s the nature of an upgrade.

After a certain point, the only thing we’re buying is the way the upgrade makes us feel in the moment, not our satisfaction going forward.

Stereos, salt, art on the wall. It’s easy to get hooked on the climb, not the altitude.

Luxury goods are a special set of upgrades. These are purchases that aren’t actually an upgrade, they simply feel that way because of their cost (and the status that goes with it).

At some point, the best upgrade is the realization that we have enough.

July 13, 2026

https://seths.blog

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 10, 2026

1. Softbank Volatility -40% Twice in 8 Months

StockCharts


2. IGV Software ETF Hit Negative Return for 5-Year Period Before Recent Bounce

Google Finance


3. Leverage ETF Craze Changing Structure of Stock Market

Joshua Brown


4. 2 Clients-Customer A and Customer B Make Up Almost 40% of NVDA Revenue

Perplexity


5. AI Contribution to GDP Growth-Morningstar

Preston Caldwell MYTH AI Isn’t a Major Contributor to the US GDP Growth

The third myth is that AI isn’t a major contributor to recent US GDP growth. This may sound odd, because the naive view is “of course it is—look at the hundreds of billions being spent on data centers.” But Goldman Sachs economists argued that AI-related investment in 2025 was offset entirely by imports, leading to zero contribution to GDP on net. This view is now perhaps the consensus among more sophisticated observers. But we think it’s missing the full picture.

We estimate that, as officially measured, AI investment contributed 0.4 percentage points to real GDP growth in 2025. And that contribution would’ve been 0.6 points without the Bureau of Economic Analysis undermeasurement of IT equipment investment.

Where does the view that AI’s contribution to GDP was zero in 2025 get things wrong? First, it assumes the official figures are correct. But even granting the official figures, there are two other mistakes. The zero-contribution view neglects the components of data center investment that correspond to non-IT equipment and structures. And it neglects the fact that AI services spending is capitalized as intangibles investment in the national accounts.

So, AI is providing a massive boost on the demand side of the economy, considering this direct contribution, as well as indirect effects, such as the boost to consumption from higher stock prices.

There’s one more nuance to unravel, though: AI’s contribution to GDP growth may be offset by tighter monetary policy. If this is the case, AI’s main impact on the economy isn’t higher GDP growth, but rather higher interest rates. Then, AI won’t start having a major uplift to GDP growth until it shifts from being merely a demand shock to also being a supply-side shock. The latter will happen once AI starts boosting productivity growth, which, as we discussed, is probably yet to ramp up.

https://www.morningstar.com/economy/5-myths-about-ais-economic-impact-what-data-actually-shows


6. Nuclear Power Capacity To Jump 44% By 2036 As China Surpasses US

by Tyler Durden  Global nuclear capacity is set to surge by 44% over the next decade as China topples the United States as the biggest nuclear power capacity holder and India will hike its capacity to boost energy security. These are the estimates in a new report by BloombergNEF, which sees total global nuclear capacity at 535 gigawatts (GW) by 2036, up from the 372 GW of installed capacity as of the end of 2025.

The world is projected to have as much as 535 gigawatts of installed nuclear power by 2036, up from 372 last year, according to the report released Wednesday.

ZeroHedge


7. You Know Its Howard Lindzon’s “Degenerate Economy” When Goldman Has to Throw on Ban

Goldman Bans Staff Prediction Markets Bets on Finance, Politics

Bloomberg


8. U.S. Condo Market Supply for Sale Back to 2013 Levels

Wolf Street Sales of condos and co-ops fell by 2.7% seasonally adjusted in June from May, and by 2.7% year-over-year, to annual rate of 360,000, a record low, shared also by May 2020 and May 2025, all of them the same record low in the data that go back only to late 2011.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate compared to June in prior years:

  • 2025: -2.7% (year-over-year)
  • 2021: -50.7%
  • 2019: -36.8%
  • 2012: -25.0% (first June in the data series)

Supply of condos rose to 6.4 months, along with May, June, and September last year the highest since 2012.

Wolf Street


9. White Lines on American Roads in 1950s Life Saver

WSJ By Ben Cohen  In the 1950s, around the time Jonas Salk cracked the polio vaccine, a metallurgist named John V. N. Dorr became the champion of a different lifesaver: a white line on the right side of the road.  The study found that Dorr’s line nudged cars away from the center line, into the middle of their lanes, and narrowed the speed gap between day and night. In other words, the study found scientific evidence that a single line could dramatically alter human behavior.  

WSJ


10. My Question—Brown U has 20% of Kids Getting “extra time” for Exams Due to Issues.  Do They Still Get Extra Time While Cheating with AI

This chart should be a ‘wake-up call’ about AI cheating, Brown University professor says  By Henry Chandonnet 

Brown University professor Roberto Serrano told Business Insider that the “cost of cheating has basically gone down to zero.” Roberto Serrano

  • Brown University professor Roberto Serrano saw scores drop between a take-home midterm and an in-person final.
  • He suspects the students cheated with AI. “It’s certainly a wake-up call to the professors,” he told Business Insider.
  • Serrano shared the exam scores. Some dropped from perfect scores on the midterm to below 20% on the final.

What feels off in this AI-generated summary?

Roberto Serrano’s class scored curiously well on the take-home midterm exam. When he suspected widespread AI cheating and made their final exam in-person, their grades tanked.

The Brown University professor teaches welfare economics and social choice theory. The midterm was administered from home after a shooter killed two students in December.

“The problem with this technology is that the cost of cheating has basically gone down to zero,” he told Business Insider. “It’s very easy for students to succumb to the temptation.”

When he told students that the final exam would be in person, many previously high-scoring students dropped out. Others who scored in the high 90s on the midterm scored in the 50s on the final.

Brian E. Clark, Brown’s VP for news and strategic campus communications, wrote to Business Insider that Serrano shared details with the university’s standing committee on the academic code on July 8. The committee “move forward according to its procedures.”

“Brown treats every allegation of academic integrity with the utmost seriousness,” Clark wrote.

The scandal has drawn interest across the internet, and particularly among those who work in tech. Y Combinator cofounder Paul Graham posted on X about it; two Google DeepMind staffers also shared their thoughts.

A chart of the data, which was first publicized by Inside Higher Ed, shows each student’s grades: 

Business Insider

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 09, 2026

1. Technology Stocks Insiders Buying Shares at Highest Rate Ever

Tech insiders. “At least one group of Tech investors appears to be viewing this as a buying opportunity (HINT: Its the people who know these companies best). Make of it what you will.”

@jaykaeppel


2. Emerging Market Rally Concentrated S.Korea

The Lead-Lag Report


3. Crypto Sentiment at Bearish Records …Strongly Bullish 1%

Bespoke’s


4. Crude Oil Sector =Broadcom Stock

Jeff Weniger


5. NVDA Falls to 2019 P/E Levels

Bloomberg


6. MU Micron -28% from Highs…Only Gets Stock to 50-Day

StockCharts


7. Big Tech Borrowing in Bond Markets…Final Order Book Coming in Below Peak Order Book

Bloomberg


8. Global LNG Trading Post Wars

Semafor


9. More Chinese real estate stats

Michael A. Arouet


10. 1 Habit Most Intelligent People Have In Common

Intelligent individuals don’t know how to be right—they know how to be wrong.-Psychology Today

Key points

  • Openness to new ideas can reliably predict high cognitive ability.
  • Intelligent people habitually seek evidence that challenges, rather than confirms, their beliefs.
  • True intelligence sometimes looks like indecision—frequent mind-changing can signal deeper thinking.

Across decades of research into how people think, one behavioral pattern keeps emerging in the data as a reliable marker of high cognitive ability, and that habit has nothing to do with how quickly someone reaches a conclusion.

In a landmark 1997 study published in the Journal of Educational Psychology, psychologists Keith Stanovich and Richard West found that the single strongest thinking disposition associated with higher intelligence was what they called actively open-minded thinking: the habitual tendency to seek out evidence that challenges one’s existing beliefs, to sit with uncertainty, and to revise one’s conclusions when the data demands it.

Over the last three decades, that finding has been replicated so consistently across different populations and methodologies that a 2023 comprehensive review in the Journal of Intelligence, one of the field’s most authoritative journals, confirmed it still stands as one of the most robust links between a cognitive disposition and measured intellectual ability.

How This Habit Compounds Your Intelligence

Actively open-minded thinking reflects the extent to which someone habitually weighs new evidence against a favored belief, considers others’ views before closing on a position, and remains genuinely open to being wrong. It sounds straightforward. In practice, it cuts against almost every social instinct we have.

What makes the actively open-minded thinking-intelligence link particularly striking isn’t simply that the two correlate. It’s the direction of the relationship across multiple studies: actively open-minded thinking consistently predicts better real-world reasoning performance on heuristics and biased tasks, on calibration measures, on tests of scientific reasoning — even when controlling for raw cognitive ability.

In other words, this isn’t just intelligence expressing itself through behavior. It’s a thinking habit that compounds whatever cognitive ability a person already has. That distinction matters because it means actively open-minded thinking can be intentionally observed and built.

How This Habit Is Connected to Intelligence

To understand why actively open-minded thinking clusters so reliably with high cognitive ability, it helps to look at the broader personality science.

2024 meta-analysis published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, drawing on decades of research across hundreds of studies, found that within the openness-to-experience domain, intellectual curiosity showed the strongest and most consistent positive correlations with measured intelligence—stronger than any other personality facet examined.

Not openness to aesthetics, not sensation-seeking, not openness to feelings. The facets that pointed most reliably toward high cognitive ability were the ones oriented toward ideas and toward an honest reckoning with one’s own thinking. Actively open-minded thinking is what that profile looks like as a daily behavior. It’s openness to experience translated into practice.

The motivational engine underneath it has its own name in the literature: need for cognition. This refers to the tendency to find effortful, challenging thinking intrinsically rewarding rather than draining. For people high in need for cognition, encountering a persuasive counterargument doesn’t trigger defensiveness. It triggers engagement.

2024 longitudinal study published in the Journal of Intelligence, which tracked 341 adolescents across a school year using latent change score models, found a bidirectional relationship: fluid intelligence predicted growth in need for cognition, and need for cognition predicted growth in fluid intelligence. The relationship runs in both directions.

This is why psychologists often find that people who describe themselves as indecisive—who change their minds often, who find it difficult to state positions with complete confidence—are frequently the sharpest thinkers in the room. Their uncertainty is a signal that their cognitive system is working correctly, continuously integrating new information rather than defending a position already staked out.

What This Habit Looks Like in Practice

Actively open-minded thinking manifests in specific, recognizable behaviors, and they don’t always look like intelligence from the outside.

On top of this, they also deliberately seek out asymmetric conversations—people with different professional backgrounds, different priors, different life experiences—not to debate, but to locate the edges of their own blind spots.

From the outside, these behaviors can look like indecision or a lack of conviction, but research suggests otherwise. A 2019 study published in Personality and Individual Differences found that both intelligence and cognitive flexibility independently predicted intellectual humility, particularly the facets concerned with respecting opposing views and remaining open to revising one’s attitudes when faced with new evidence.

Crucially, the researchers found a compensatory effect: either high intelligence or high cognitive flexibility was sufficient to support intellectual humility; neither was strictly necessary alone. Two roads in, but both are reliably traveled by highly capable thinkers.

How You Can Cultivate a Habit of Open-Minded Thinking

The most important implication of this body of research is also its most hopeful one: actively open-minded thinking is not a fixed trait.

This means actively open-minded thinking is, at least in part, a practice. It is built through repeated, deliberate exposure to disconfirming information. It is strengthened every time someone asks, “What am I missing?” rather than “How do I defend this?” And it weakens in environments that reward certainty over accuracy.

The takeaway for anyone who works alongside, leads, or wants to develop highly capable people is this: the visible signals of strong thinking are often the opposite of what we’ve been trained to look for. Confidence reads as competence. Fluency reads as expertise. But the deeper marker that research points to most consistently, across decades and methodologies, is a genuine, practiced willingness to be wrong.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/social-instincts/202607/1-habit-most-intelligent-people-have-in-common