Topley’s Top 10 – November 23, 2022

1. Last 30days…FANG -6% vs. SPY +7%

FANG+ vs. SPY Chart straight down……50day breaking 200 day to downside

www.stockcharts.com


2. Crude Oil Approaching Sept. Lows

Crude chart…50day went thru 200day to downside in September

XLE Oil Stocks Outperforming the Commodity….this chart is showing XLE performance vs. Crude Oil


3. Gas at the Pump Did Take Out Sept Low….$5 to $3.66

From Dave Lutz Jones Trading But Bespoke notes the AAA national average price of a gallon of gas took out its September low yesterday (before today’s big drop in oil prices). Should help November CPI. Down 10 cents/gallon MTD.


4. Only Stock Drawdown in History Where 20 Year Treasury Lost More than Stocks

I’ve shown the below chart multiple times documenting how this is the only year in history where in a top 20 drawdown for stocks, Treasuries (the risk-off asset) during that drawdown lost more (my hell).

But what if the drawdown isn’t over in stocks?

Can Treasuries still work? https://t.co/61QHWUK5Ek

https://t.co/QniopSFxPc

9:38 PM – 18 Nov 2022 

5. Crypto Stock Implosion Summary

Wolf Street Blog

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/11/21/i-agree-dont-graduate-crypto-let-it-burn-making-good-progress-on-its-own/


6. Kailash Concepts Charts on Cap Weighted Russell Large Cap Growth….30 Names Make Up 65% of Index

Sign up for trial https://kailashconcepts.com


7. GMO Latest 7 Year Real (inflation adjusted) Returns

GMO *The chart represents local, real return forecasts for several asset classes and not for any GMO fund or strategy. These forecasts are forward-looking statements based upon the reasonable beliefs of GMO and are not a guarantee of future performance. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and GMO assumes no duty to and does not undertake to update forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, which change over time. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward looking statements. U.S. inflation is assumed to mean revert to long-term inflation of 2.3% over 15 years.

Source: GMO

Found at Advisor Perspective

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/11/22/gmo-7-year-asset-class-forecast-october-2022


8. Unwinding the FED Balance Sheet

The Fed’s balance sheet is now down roughly $340 billion from the peak.

Source: Daily Shot


9. Qatar World Cup Spending vs. Historical Hosts…$220B vs. $12B

Soccer spend-The 2022 World Cup got underway yesterday as hosts Qatar lost to Ecuador in the opening game. Having reportedly spent $220bn on the tournament, Qatar’s focus for the competition may not strictly be based on soccer results.

What’s the score?FIFA’s decision to elect Qatar as the host nation led to allegations of corruption back in 2010 and criticism and controversy have hardly ceased since. With Qatar’s human rights record and its maltreatment of migrant workers and the LGBT community, many have accused the state of sportswashing; attempting to tidy their reputation via the World Cup. It’s been an expensive clean-up effort if that’s the case.

Qatar has gone all out, basically building a city to host the final and outspending every nation that’s held the tournament before them. All told, the state has reportedly shelled out a staggering $220bn to prepare for kickoff, though Bloomberg estimated that the true cost could be as high as $300bn. The US, by comparison, spent just $500m when they hosted back in 1994.  Even if we were to adjust for inflation, the American tally would be a drop in the ocean compared to the Qatar figures — which become even more mind-boggling when compared to the host’s relatively-small $180bn GDP figure.

www.chartr.com


10. The Lessons Never Change in the Stock Market

Liz Ann Sonders quotes from legendary investors

Edwin LeFevre

“Fear and hope remain the same; therefore the study of the psychology of speculators is as valuable as it ever was. Weapons change, but strategy remains strategy, on the New York Stock Exchange as on the battlefield.”

“The sucker has always tried to get something for nothing, and the appeal in all booms is always frankly to the gambling instinct aroused by cupidity and spurred by a pervasive prosperity. People who look for easy money invariably pay for the privilege of proving conclusively that it cannot be found on this sordid earth.”

“Speculators buy the trend; investors are in for the long haul; ‘they are a different breed of cats.’ One reason that people lose money today is that they have lost sight of this distinction; they profess to have the long term in mind and yet cannot resist following where the hot money has led.”

“Never try to sell at the top. It isn’t wise. Sell after a reaction if there is no rally.”

“…there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/songs-experience-reminiscences-strategist

Topley’s Top 10 – November 22, 2022

1. Median Price to Sales of Nasdaq 100 Cut in Half

@Charlie BilelloThe same can be said for the median company in the Nasdaq 100, which now has a Price to Sales ratio of 4.2x (down from 8.5x a year ago), the lowest we’ve seen since 2016. Not “cheap” but most definitely cheaper after the 35% decline in the past year.


2. Currencies 2022

State Street

https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/insights/should-gold-investors-fear-a-strong-us-dollar?WT.mc_id=social_etf-wgc_gold-web_us_lkdin_img_n_mf2_n_oct22&spi=6346d43d9efced1f20f6ca2c


3. Personal Savings Rate vs. Credit Card Growth

Hedge Fund Association Linkedin

https://www.linkedin.com/groups/44059/


4. U.S. Stocks Vs. International

Wisdom Tree Blog Andrew Okrongly  Breaking down to value and small cap

https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/blog/2022/11/21/recent-us-equity-outperformance-vs-rest-of-world-not-just-large-cap-tech


5. COINBASE New Lows….-86% One-Year

COIN next run on the bank for Crypto space???

www.stockcharts.com


6. Tesla at 200 Week Moving Average

Tesla trades down to 200 week moving average….$125 Covid Lows 2020

www.stockcharts.com


7. U.S. Energy Consumption by Source …Breakdown of Renewables

Found at Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


8. Shrinking Costs of Alternative Energy Sources.

Bloomberg By Liam Denning

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-11-21/nuclear-power-it-s-now-or-never-for-a-revival?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L


9. The Prius 237k Sales to 32k

Chartr.com New (old) model Toyota is updating the Prius, its pioneering hybrid model, some 22 years since the car first hit the US market. Now into its fifth generation, the Japanese carmaker’s iconic eco-friendlier vehicle is losing favor with climate-conscious consumers. Sales have fallen nearly every year since 2012 — when more than 230,000 vehicles in the Prius family were sold in the US.
Out of gasThe new Prius will launch in Japan, Europe, and North America in 2023 and comes with some enhanced climate credentials, like its 50% boosted EV driving range and improved solar power capabilities. However, with growing emphasis on (and consumer interest infully-electrified models, it’s not entirely clear where the Prius plugs into the market.
The company confirmed, for instance, that the new model would not be on sale in the UK due to waning demand, and it’s not just Britain either. US Prius sales could be on for their worst year since 2004, with just under 30,000 sold so far in 2022.
Toyota does have plans to become a little more Tesla by 2030, with a pledge to push 50% of its spending in the next 8 years into the battery electric vehicle game (where they only have one car at the moment). But they don’t seem ready to say goodbye to an old favorite just yet.

www.chartr.com


10. Want to sound more confident? Ditch these 10 phrases that make you look ‘insecure’ and ‘arrogant,’ say word experts

Kathy and Ross Petras, Contributors@KANDRPETRAS

We’ve all been there: You want people to think that you’re confident and capable, but somehow, you wind up saying the wrong things that create a sense of arrogance, which is rooted in insecurity.

As word experts and hosts of NPR’s award-winning podcast “You’re Saying It Wrong,” we’ve found ways to help you tread that fine line between looking confident and looking like you’re arrogant and insecure.

Here are 10 phrases to ditch if you want to sound more self-assured and likable, according to behavioral experts and psychologists:

1. “I don’t mean to brag, but …”

You don’t mean to brag? Then don’t. People who set up a statement with this phrase automatically signal that they are about to, yes, brag, which turns listeners off.

Plus, since bragging is one of the hallmarks of narcissistic behavior, you’re not coming off as confident, but just full of yourself.

2. “I already knew that …” (or “Doesn’t everyone know that?”)

The scenario: A coworker explains something to you, and you reply: “Of course. I already knew that.”

You might think this response makes you sound knowledgeable, but it actually sounds dismissive and arrogant. A simple “thanks” or “yes” is a better way to respond to someone’s explanation.

3. “I’m pretty sure that …” 

It’s fine to be sure about things, but don’t overdo it, especially if you’re actually not sure. Research shows that narcissists rarely use words like “maybe,” “guess” or “perhaps.”

Being confident enough to say that you don’t know something can be the best way to initiate trust in your judgment. It also makes others feel empowered to explain things to you.

4. “No offense, but ….”

This immediately sets up an adversarial conversation: You’re overtly indicating that you’re about to say something that could — and probably will — offend someone.

Sounding like you think you have the authority to critique others won’t win you any friends. To compound matters, it’s also textbook passive-aggressive behavior.

5. Overusing “I” (or “me)

When people hear a lot of “I’s” and “me’s,” there’s a strong chance they might think of you as self-centered or narcissistic.

Research shows that people feel more positive about other people who use inclusive words like “we” and “our team.” When writing emails or text messages, check to see how many of your sentences start with an “I.” Chances are there are more than you think.

6. “Oh, I’m just kidding!”

This is a passive-aggressive way of indicating that you think you know better. When you follow up a comment or criticism with a “just kidding” in an attempt to take the sting out of it, you’re not fooling anyone. You’re just insulting the other person.

It’s better to simply not say anything that has to be laughed off in the first place.

7. “You probably don’t know this, but …”

This phrase is practically guaranteed to irritate the listener. Again, you’re being dismissive of the other person’s knowledge or capabilities.

If you want to share information, share it without the obnoxious disclaimer.

8. “I’m surprised you’re having problems with this. It’s so easy!”

Maybe you really are surprised that someone can’t do or understand something, and maybe you really do think it’s so easy. But saying it out loud only makes you sound like a know-it-all.

It’s the same with phrases like “You couldn’t figure it out? It’s just common sense!” It’s common sense to not say phrases like this.

9. “You just don’t get it.”

Some people use this phrase when they’ve outlined an idea or plan, but their colleague says that it won’t work or that it isn’t great.

Studies show that narcissists rarely admit that their ideas might not be the right thing to do, and this kind of statement could make people suspect you are one.

10. “If I were you, I’d ….”

This is another “I know best” phrase, which can make you come off as arrogant instead of helpful. If you want to give advice, rephrase it to be supportive — rather than judgmental — by asking questions like, “Have you tried …?” or “What about …?

Communication patterns that turn people off

These aren’t phrases, but they are common communication mistakes we’ve seen that can make you look like a conversational narcissist:

Constantly interrupting

It’s rude to cut people off while they’re speaking. Maybe you’re eager to prove you know what they’re talking about; perhaps you think your input is needed and you can’t wait. Well, wait. It’s that simple.

Talking too much in general

Dominating a conversation by talking (and talking and talking) doesn’t make you look like an expert. It makes you look like you’re overly fond of your own voice, views and ideas.

Making everything about you

A colleague mentions that they are feeling burned out, and you immediately start talking about how burned out you feel lately.

Remember: It’s not always about you. Even if you think your empathy or input will win you points, you’re actually undermining yourself.

Kathy and Ross Petras are the brother-and-sister co-authors of the NYT bestseller ”You’re Saying it Wrong,” as well as ”Awkword Moments″ and That Doesn’t Mean What You Think It Means. They co-host NPR’s award-winning podcast ”You’re Saying It Wrong.” Their newest book, ”A History of the World Through Body Parts,” is a quirky history of things you didn’t learn through textbooks. Follow them on Twitter @kandrpetras.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/20/want-to-sound-more-confident-ditch-these-phrases-that-make-you-look-arrogant-and-insecure-say-psychologists.html

Topley’s Top 10 – November 21, 2022

1. YTD Performance…Dow Jones Only Down -5.4%

LPL Research

https://iplresearch.com/2022/11/18/weekly-market-performance-markets-lower-following-last-weeks-solid-showing/


2. Energy Stocks-History of Sectors with 2 Years Outperformance.

Energy stocks -Mark Hulbert Marketwatch

 

Research shows that when a sector’s trailing two-year return soundly beats the U.S. market average, that sector takes a beating over the next two years

Oil and gas stocks are likely in a market bubble that’s vulnerable to popping.

That’s the conclusion when applying a formula from recent academic research into the predictability of stock market bubbles and subsequent crashes.

The research, which appeared in the Journal of Financial Economics, was conducted by Robin Greenwood and Andrei Shleifer of Harvard University, and Yang You of the University of Hong Kong.

The researchers found that the probability of a market sector crashing — defined as a drop of at least 40% over the subsequent two years — was correlated with its trailing two-year performance relative to the overall market.

The chart above provides the specifics, based on U.S. data back to 1926. Whenever an industry or sector outperformed the broad market by at least 100 basis points (1 percentage point) over a two-year period, there was a 53% chance it would drop by at least 40% over the subsequent two years. When the trailing two-year outperformance was at least 150 basis points (1.5%), those odds grew to 80%.

These findings are why the energy sector is so vulnerable. The Energy Select Sector SPDR XLE, -0.79%, for example, has beaten the S&P 500 SPX, +0.48%over the past two years by 153 percentage points. Assuming the future is like the past, the odds of the energy sector falling by 40% or more in the next two years are 80%.

On several prior occasions, I’ve applied this academic research to various assets, and it’s worked every time. Here’s a brief rundown:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/energy-stocks-are-in-a-bubble-and-heres-when-theyre-likely-to-crash-11668503652?mod=home-page


3. High-Yield Party Returns to Emerging Markets Too Cheap to Ignore

Netty Ismail (Bloomberg) — Yield hunting is back in emerging markets with a force not seen for 17 years.

Most Read from Bloomberg

Investors are buying the bonds of some of the world’s poorest nations so fast that the risk premium on them is falling at the quickest pace since June 2005 relative to their investment-grade peers, JPMorgan Chase & Co. data show. And countries that were tottering on the brink of default just months ago — such as Pakistan, Ghana and Ukraine — are leading this high-yield rally.

Before this month, the most brutal selloff since the 2008 financial crisis already had emerging-market money managers talking about how cheap high-yield bonds were and how their underperformance against higher-rated debt was an unsustainable distortion. But the bonds continued to be shunned because of a surge in US yields driven by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary tightening. It’s only now, with the prospect for a slower pace of interest-rate hikes, that investors are returning.

“Cheaper high-yield emerging-market bonds do look more attractive relative to investment grade,” said Ben Luk, a senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets. The recent rebound in commodity prices, especially oil, could also “generate greater cash flow and lower the chance of any sovereign default in the near term.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/high-yield-party-returns-emerging-170000920.html


4. Chinese Housing Surplus 30m Units

China: The housing surplus is massive.

Source: @business Read full article

The Daily Shot Blog https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-november-18th-2022/


5. Recession? October Retail Sales Strongest in 8 Months

JP Morgan Private Bank


6. LFP Batteries Could Make EV’s More Affordable for the Masses

5 FAST FACTS TO KNOW ABOUT LFP BATTERIES

Sep 30, 2022 by Katherine de Guia, Communications Specialist – New Power

The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery is breaking barriers in the electric vehicle (EV) market. It is poised to redefine battery manufacturing and EV sales in North America and Europe. It’s powerful, lightweight, and fast charging…but the LFP is actually nothing new.

1. An LFP is a lithium-ion battery.

The resurgence of the LFP battery and its role in the future of e-mobility leads many to beg the question: Which battery chemistry is best for electric vehicles, lithium iron phosphate or lithium-ion?

Because lithium-ion (Li-Ion) batteries are a rechargeable battery type that most people are likely familiar with, it seems like the logical selection. They’re used in many everyday items, like mobile phones, laptops and electric vehicles driving on the road today. But when discussing the pros and cons of each EV battery, it isn’t a contest between LFP and Li-Ion batteries.

The Li-Ion battery family contains different battery chemistries named after their cathode; LFP is part of that family. And while an LFP is a Li-Ion battery, not all Li-Ions are LFPs. Other lithium-ion batteries include the nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) battery and the lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxides (NCA) battery. Both are already utilized heavily in electric vehicles.

2. The “F” in LFP stands for iron.

Batteries are typically named after the chemicals used in the cathode, and an LFP battery uses a cathode material made from the inorganic compound lithium iron phosphate, with the formula LiFePO4. The “F” comes from “Fe,” the periodic table of elements chemical symbol for iron. Fe is derived from the Latin word for iron, ferrum. You may also see an LFP referred to as a lithium ferro phosphate battery.

3. LFPs can be charged to 100%.

Keeping an electric vehicle battery healthy is necessary if your EV wants to live a long, happy life. If your EV has an NMC or NCA battery, one of the easiest ways to do so is NOT charging the battery to 100% every today. This prevents accelerated calendar aging, the natural aging of a battery that will occur whether it is in use or not. Charging an NMC or NCA to 100% puts the batteries in an extreme state of charge. Because batteries turn chemical energy into electricity, a battery is inherently unstable when fully charged. Overall, it is considered best practice to avoid a very high and meager charge, with 80% being the standard battery capacity for an optimal lifetime.

However, LFP batteries are an exception to this charging standard. LFPs have 100% of their capacity available, meaning they can be fully charged without causing accelerated battery degradation. This is thanks to the battery’s cathode.

The phosphorus-oxygen bond in the LFP cathode is stronger than the metal-oxygen bond in other cathode materials. This bond hinders the release of oxygen and requires more energy and a higher on-set temperature for thermal runaway. This makes the battery more stable for being stored at full charge.

4. LFPs are a lower-cost option.

Electric vehicles are popular, and the demand for more companies to switch from internal combustion engines to batteries continues to increase. However, even as demand rises, building an EV still costs more than traditional diesel engines due to battery manufacturing.
Manufacturing NMC and NCA batteries require nickel and cobalt, two materials that come at a pretty penny to extract. The cost of buying both materials is expensive already. Still, the increasing nickel shortage and cobalt production being stretched to its limits pose a challenge to manufacturing NMC and NCA batteries and making them affordable for integration into EVs.

LFP batteries, on the other hand, currently bypass supply chain issues and inflated prices because nickel and cobalt aren’t needed for the cathode. An LFP’s cathode is made from earth-abundant materials. Lithium iron phosphate is a crystalline compound that belongs to the olivine mineral family. Because the olivine family is a primary component of the Earth’s upper mantle, LFP is more readily available for extraction at a lower cost.

5. 17% of the global EV market is powered by LFPs.

Lithium iron phosphate batteries first came to light in 1996, so it’s not surprising this battery chemistry is already present in the electric vehicle market. Discovered by John Bannister Goodenough’s research group at the University of Texas, LFP batteries gained recognition for their wide range of benefits. Even with advantageous characteristics, LFPs didn’t experience their first large-scale adoption until 10 years later, when they became the industry favorite for electronics.

LFP technology has improved over the years, and it can now be found in a broader range of applications, from motorcycles and solar devices to electric cars. Seventeen percent of the global EV market is already powered by LFPs, but this battery chemistry is poised to make its next big breakthrough with large-scale adoption in different on-highway applications like electric buses and electric trucks. LFPs are less energy dense, come with lower manufacturing costs and are easier to produce than other Li-Ion and lead-acid battery types.

The warnings of a lithium supply shortage threaten to cut the global EV sales forecast in 2030, but even that hasn’t appeared to slow the momentum of adopting LFP batteries into electric vehicles. LFP battery chemistry remains easier to produce and at a lower cost. Their efficient charging, lower cost of ownership, non-toxicity, long cycle life and excellent safety characteristics make them a crowd favorite for the future of electric transportation.
https://www.cummins.com/news/2022/09/30/5-fast-facts-know-about-lfp-batteries


7. This Doesn’t Read Well for the West and NATO

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/which-populations-feel-their-country-is-on-the-wrong-track/


8. Existing Homes Sales Approaching Covid Lows

Wolf Street

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/11/18/home-sales-plungee-investors-pull-back-too-princes-drop-8-4-in-4-months-active-listings-price-cuts-rise-further/


9. Masayoshi Son owes SoftBank $4.7bn as side deals go sour

Portfolio losses ratcheted up Japanese billionaire’s deficit to about $2.8bn from his Vision Fund 2 interest alone

Investors have raised concerns that Masayoshi Son’s mix of personal and company interests are a corporate governance risk. Reuters

Bloomberg

Masayoshi Son is now personally on the hook for about $4.7 billion on side deals he set up at SoftBank Group to boost his compensation, after mounting losses in the company’s tech portfolio wiped out the value of his interest in the second Vision Fund.

Over the years, the Japanese billionaire’s controversial personal stakes in SoftBank’s investments drew fire from investors, who pointed to the mix of personal and company interests as a corporate governance concern.

Mr Son, who owns a more than 30 per cent stake in SoftBank, has denied there was a conflict of interest and said it was remuneration for his investment expertise, in lieu of investment fees.

The move has backfired, enveloping Mr Son’s personal finances in the downside of the world’s biggest tech investor’s bets. He was down more than $4 billion on his side deals through to the June quarter, Bloomberg reported earlier.

Mr Son last week said he was stepping away from leading earnings calls, to focus on preparing chip designer Arm for a public listing — an event that would give SoftBank fuel to again pursue new investments. SoftBank will bide its time in a tech winter and pay down its debt, he and his lieutenants said.

SoftBank’s Vision Fund arm posted a $7.2 billion quarterly loss last week, driven by the declining value of portfolio companies such as SenseTime, DoorDash and GoTo. The company has been selling assets to raise cash and shore up its balance sheet, posting gains from selling a chunk of its stake in Alibaba.

“We need to go full-on defence,” SoftBank chief financial officer Yoshimitsu Goto said. “SoftBank is pessimistic on the outlook. We do not yet see the light.”

The 65-year-old Mr Son holds 17.25 per cent of a vehicle set up under SoftBank’s Vision Fund 2 for its unlisted holdings, as well as 17.25 per cent of a unit within its Latin America fund, which also invests in start-ups. He has a 33 per cent stake in SB Northstar, a vehicle set up at the company to trade stocks and derivatives.

Portfolio losses ratcheted up Mr Son’s deficit to about $2.8 billion from his Vision Fund 2 interest, and $252 million at the Latam fund, according to disclosures for the September quarter. His remaining deficit at SB Northstar was 233.6 billion yen ($1.6 billion).

The amount Mr Son owes SoftBank from his interests in Vision Fund 2 and the Latam fund rose about $750 million in the last quarter.

Mr Son’s interests in Vision Fund 2 and the Latam fund were structured so the billionaire didn’t pay cash up front for his 17.25 per cent stakes. He is obligated to pay 3 per cent on the “unpaid equity acquisition amount” until repayment, interest that has been wrapped into his liabilities.

There is no deadline for repayment and the value of Mr Son’s positions could improve in the future, and for SB Northstar, Mr Son has already deposited some cash and other assets. The founder would pay his share of any “unfunded repayment obligations” at the end of the fund’s life, which runs for 12 years with a two-year extension.

Mr Son has deposited 8.9 million of his own shares as collateral for Vision Fund 2, and another 2.2 million shares as collateral for the Latam fund, the company said in its disclosures. The stock will be released only once the receivables are settled.

Mr Son’s net worth stood at $12.7 billion after Thursday’s close of trading, after adjusting for his deficit from his interests in Vision Fund 2 and Latam fund, according to Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/markets/2022/11/18/masayoshi-son-owes-softbank-47bn-as-side-deals-go-sour/


10. Harvard Study Reveals the 1 Thing That Makes Humans Happy. Why Are You Doing the Complete Opposite?

Is modern life making you miserable (and alone)? Science says so.

BY NICK HOBSON, CHIEF BEHAVIORAL SCIENTIST, APEX SCORING SOLUTIONS, BAD SCIENCES AT POTENTIAL PROJECT@NICKMHOBSON

 

Money can’t buy happiness. 

Well, that’s not entirely true. Having some money helps. But it’s certainly not the biggest contributor to our happiness and well-being. So what is? 

Before the big reveal, there are two things to consider. 

First, for some of us, we were dealt a good genetic hand. We are predisposed to being happier in life. Our temperamental “wiring” makes us less neurotic, more emotionally stable, and nicer people to be around.

Second, for some of us, we ended up in the right place at the right time (or the wrong place at the wrong time). German philosopher Martin Heidegger calls this “thrownness“, or Geworfen. This is the idea that our experience in life, from birth to death, is arbitrarily determined by where we’re thrown into the world. Born into a specific family in a particular culture or religion at a given moment in human history is a matter of pure dumb luck.

These two things, genetics and Geworfen, are outside our control. And they matter. But what matters just as much, perhaps more, is something that’s within our control: relationships. And even for those of us with less-than-ideal genes, thrown into a less than ideal environment, human connection is the trump card. So why are we forgetting to play it?

No man or woman is an island 

The Harvard Study of Adult Development, the longest-running study on happiness, has followed 724 men since they were teenagers in 1938, with participants coming from a range of socioeconomic backgrounds. The Harvard team has collected a wealth of data over the 74 years, collating all kinds of personal, psychological, and health indicators and outcomes, and asking their families about their mental and emotional health every two years.

“Personal connection creates mental and emotional stimulation,” says project director, Dr. Robert Waldinger, “and those things are automatic mood boosters, while isolation is a mood buster.”

Humans are an intensely social species. It’s literally a matter of life and death. In our ancestral past, if we suddenly became isolated and pushed out by the tribe, it would have meant our inevitable death. So, the behaviors responsible for ensuring social connection — and therefore success in life — would have had a strong selective pressure. They still do.

The genes of modern Homo sapiens still drive our social behaviors in service of connecting, building, and relating to our fellow humans.

Unfortunately, we’re not living that reality.

Modernity is getting in the way of our genes

Technology, and modern life more generally, “gets written down as the progress of man”, to quote my favorite folk singer, John Prine. But consider the unintended consequence of this futuristic world we live in: We are spending more time alone than we have in all of human history. And it’s making us terribly unhappy.

I hope the irony isn’t lost on you. We carry near infinite knowledge on a machine that fits in our front pocket, we fly into space, we enter into alternative realities … but we do all this with an increasing frown and furrowed brow. We’ve never been more advanced. We’ve never been more miserable.

Then (together) versus now (alone)

It’s estimated that early humans in hunter-gather societies would have spent the majority of their time with one another. They would have done basically everything together at every waking point — working, preparing food, eating. Even leisure time and moments of ritual celebration would have been a group experience.

Contrast this with modern humans. Nearly a third of people in so-called developed Western countries live alone. These people are truly alone for about 8-10 hours of the day, every day. For people who live with others, it’s about 5-7 hours every day. Take a look at this graph. As people get older, they spend nearly half their waking time alone.

Imagine for a second we could simulate the same graph but include in it the data from the remaining time period humans have existed. It would look drastically different. Apples and oranges.

We need to look to the future and be intentional about the societies and cultures we want to build. We need to facilitate the natural urge to connect, belong, and socialize. Our technologies, city infrastructures, governmental and corporate organizations, and the way we do business should always take into account the fact that we humans can survive only by connecting with each other. Our “metrics for success” should capture that. Otherwise, we’ll end up with an incredibly advanced society — with little happiness and humanity left.

https://www.inc.com/nick-hobson/harvard-study-reveals-thing-makes-humans-happy-you-doing-complete-opposite.html?utm_source=newsletters&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=IncTop10-Nov%2020,%202022&leadId=1548979&mkt_tok=NjEwLUxFRS04NzIAAAGINTAqEth4SU5OugACyrJVllFRwESTXVP1NTCeWZv1Ylcce-8mgLYAPabuh8nD_b1HO83IGo0OtoGJUpuIOggk0dbwEgusPIWwEMWKBAU

Topley’s Top 10 – November 18, 2022

1. Federal Tax Revenue was 19.6% of GDP Last Fiscal Year…Highest on Record

It’s important for investors to recognize that even if the Democrats end up with narrow control of the House, they are unlikely to raise taxes in the next couple of years.  Federal tax revenue was 19.6% of GDP in the fiscal year that ended September 30.  That’s the highest on record with the exceptions of the peak of the first internet boom in 2000 and World War II.

Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Firsttrust  Microsoft Word – w111422 – Democrats Overperform (ftportfolios.com)

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/tax-revenue–of-gdp


2. Bitcoin Breaks Off from Tech Stocks.

Crypto and Tech Stocks stopped moving together on FTX news….This chart is BITO (bitcoin etf) compared to QQQ…straight down

One Month Performance….QQQ +11% vs. Bitcoin -15%

www.yahoofinance.com


3. Ten Year Treasury Yield Closes Below 50Day Moving Average

Short Treasury Bond ETF is TBF….It Never Broke Above RED Long-Term Downtrend Line Dating Back to 2008 GFC

www.stockcharts.com


4. Extreme Inversion of Yield Curve Tends to Coincide with Peak Fed Funds Rate

Percy Allison Jefferies LLC The yield curve is extremely inverted (2 year minus 10 year yield is -65bps) implying, based on historical precedent, that the odds of a 2023 recession are high (corroborated by ISM New Orders & Prices Paid/Inventories). A deeply inverted yield curve also tends to coincide with a peak in the Fed Funds Rate. We assume a 50bp hike in December in the chart below.

Source: Jefferies Trading Desk

Percy Allison Jefferies LLC


5. Vanguard Total International Stock ETF Rallies Right Back to 200 Day

Vanguard International hits resistance at 200day….interesting 50day never closed below 200day on downside

www.stockcharts.com


6. Most Crowded Trades….Long Dollar by Far the Largest


7. The U.S. Needs Battery Plants….8 of 10 Largest Battery Plants in China

WSJ By Stephen Wilmot

Koch Teams With Startup to Build Giant Battery Factory in Georgia – WSJ


8. American Credit Card Balances Reversed Quickly from Covid Lows

American household debt has hit a new high, with the collective tab rising $351bn in the latest quarter, taking the total owed by households to more than $16.5 trillion. There’s not many comparisons to give that number context, but its roughly 5x the size of the UK economy, or just shy of 7x what Apple is worth.

Credit or debit?Though mortgages are still by far the biggest source of debt, the collective credit card balance was the category that grew fastest on a relative basis. All told, household credit card debt grew 15% year-on-year, the largest annual jump for more than 20 years. A group of Federal Reserve researchers, hardly known for their sensationalist exaggeration, said that the increase “towers over the last 18 years of data”.
With over 500 million accounts open in the US, credit cards are a staple of consumer spending — more than 190 million Americans have at least one account, and 13% reported having five or more cards.

The concern for the economy is that consumers will find themselves owing more, at a higher interest rate, and may struggle to make payments. The good news is that, per The New York Fed, delinquency rates so far have only risen very modestly — and in a historical context remain low — suggesting that people are making payments on time.

www.chartr.com


9. Interesting International Home Ownership Data

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank Adrian Cox and Galina Pozdnyakova in my team have just produced a report on global housing as part of my team’s 101 series aimed at simplifying big important topics for generalists. Today’s CoTD shows the proportion of homes by ownership status for a selection of countries. There are some interesting extremes in the data. Italy has a very low ownership by mortgage with only 10.8% owned with a mortgage and 60.8% of housing stock owned outright without one. This hints at a more traditional multi-generational family ownership structure. Spain is not too dissimilar. English speaking and Nordic countries are much more likely to have mortgages as the highest form of home ownership. Germany and Switzerland have the highest amount of renters in the sample.

The report shows that the hottest markets in recent years are in countries with the highest household debt ratios to GDP hinting at leverage fuelled gains. It also shows the maturity split of mortgages issued in recent times. For example virtually all Finnish and Norwegian mortgages issued in the last year or so have been variable with a fixed rate of no more than 12 months but virtually all new US mortgages have been long-term fixed.

Every market is different so it’s impossible to put a one-size fits all valuation framework on global housing but this report will hopefully give you some basic facts to understand the major differences. The table on p.19 puts it all together and shows which markets might be most at risk going forward. See here for the full report.


10. 5 Reasons Fear Can Make You Better

By Patti Johnson | August 27, 2013 |   The fear of not being good enough, smart enough or successful enough can be debilitating. In my last blog, I talked about why it’s so helpful to know your “go-to” fears so you can learn to anticipate and manage them.

In certain situations, fear can also be expected. It is, for example, a normal part of starting any change. In fact, I have been studying people who made the decision to start a change. Many of them had some fears, but those fears didn’t stop them from acting. One new business owner told me that she was afraid at times, but she wanted to reach her goal so badly that she just accepted the fear and kept going. We often think of fear in a negative way, but fear can be a very positive force, one to signal that you are changing and growing. It can:

  1. Be a sign that you are doing something that’s important to you
  2. Indicate that you are learning something very new
  3. Confirm that you are outside of your comfort zone
  4. Give you creative energy and ideas
  5. Cause you to act on something that you know is important

Ask anyone who has begun major changes in their work or life, and there is always some fear and discomfort. That is part of it. When I started my business, my fear of failure was absolutely a motivator and I did my best to use it to my benefit—at least most days. The reality is that if it were easy, you would have already done it. Progress is more likely to happen once you begin managing and using your fear to your advantage.

There is also a different kind of fear—the fear of being successful. Recently, a friend said to me, “I’ve realized that I’m not afraid of failure. I’m afraid of success.” We begin to wonder, what if the new business takes off? What if I get the new job? What if I get the book contract? Can I do it? Our own self-doubt can trip us up not only in our ability to get there, but in wondering what happens if we do.

I am reminded of one of my favorite quotes of all time from Marianne Williamson: “Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness, that most frightens us. We ask ourselves, ‘Who am I to be brilliant, gorgeous, talented, fabulous?’ Actually, who are you not to be?” Even fear of success can get in our way.

Accept that the fear factor is a natural part of starting down a new path. Know and accept your “go-to” fears so you are ready for them when they appear. Find the positives of fear and don’t aim to go around or avoid it. If you accept and embrace some of your fear, it can work for you—and it just might be a sign that you are ready to start a change that has been waiting for you.

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This article was published in August 2013 and has been updated. Photo by Dragon Images/Shutterstock

https://www.success.com/five-reasons-why-fear-can-make-you-better/

Topley’s Top 10 – November 17, 2022

1. No Fund Outflows at All

Callum Thomas Chart Storm Flow With the Go:  Fund flows show outflow no-show.

Source:  @ISABELNET_SA  https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-13-november


2. History of S&P Below 200 Day Moving Average LPL Research

https://i0.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Chart-.png?ssl=1


3. Schwab Traders Favorite Longs

Still, traders “have their eyes open on a few different sectors and categories” that they feel are poised to do well, Metzger said, noting that they are bullish on value stocks and fixed income, as well as energy, healthcare, utilities and consumer-staples sectors.

By  Christine Idzelis

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/whats-in-among-bearish-stock-market-traders-and-whats-out-according-to-charles-schwab-survey-11668516776?mod=home-page\


4. Sentiment Indicator Hit Extreme Levels

Liz Ann Sonders Schwab Better Breadth Unlike the summer rally, the rip higher in stocks late last week came in response to inflation data that was actually better than expected. It was also aided by the drop in bond yields and the continued retreat in the U.S. dollar. In addition, there are now 56% of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages vs. 51% at the mid-August high—at which point the index was 330 points higher than it was as of Friday’s close. We continue to believe the average stock will do well relative to the largest cap stocks (i.e., equal weight will continue to outperform cap weight).

The rally was also aided by quite dour investor sentiment conditions leading into last week. We have been pointing out the better (contrarian) environment for stocks—at least as it related to attitudinal measures of sentiment. Last week’s “crypto carnage” (more on that below) was a likely trigger for behavioral sentiment measures finally falling into line with attitudinal measures.

SentimenTrader’s Panic/Euphoria Model, which is a blend of attitudinal and behavioral sentiment indicators, recently inflected higher from a historically low reading, as shown below. As the accompanying table highlights, although equity market performance was mixed historically in the near-term after similar inflections; it was universally strong a year later.

A little less panic

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/swing-swing-wild-week


5. Tech Rallying the Last 2 Weeks but Vanguard Energy ETF Hit New Highs

Energy Still Leading Sector

www.stockcharts.com


6. Cintas Corporation Would Seem to be Very Tied to Economic Cycle…..It is not Acting Like Recession 2023.

Cintas about to make new highs……One of the best S&P stocks for last 25 years.


7. Taiwan Semi Big Move Higher but Still not Even Back to Early Sept Highs


8. More on LA Ports…Quietest Month Since 2009

Zerohedge LA Port Head Says October Was ‘Quietest’ Month Since 2009

BY TYLER DURDEN About a year ago, there was a massive queue outside two of America’s biggest ports, located on the West Coast. Now, the ports are coming to a crawl during the peaking shipping season, ahead of the busiest shopping period of the year.

There’s no longer a massive amount of container ships outside the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, which handle 40% of all cargo containers entering the country.

According to Gene Seroka, head of the Port of Los Angeles, the backlog has all but dissipated. In an online briefing, he said the Port of LA had the quietest October since 2009. 

Together, LA and Long Beach are the main seaport gateway into the US economy from China. The quietest October since the GFC is sign retailers and manufacturers have slowed or stopped ordering from overseas due to either high inventories or collapsing demand.

Seroka’s comment Tuesday is another piece to the puzzle of an emerging global slowdown:

We predict in May that an inventory glut, i.e., the reverse bullwhip effect, would cool the booming freight market. It’s peak shipping season — retailers have already canceled overseas orders as freight companies reduce shipping capacity ahead of Black Friday and Christmas.

Companies across the board are bloated with inventories. This can be shown in the inventory-to-sales ratio, reaching multi-decade highs — forcing importers to reduce shipments from overseas suppliers.

LA Port Head Says October Was ‘Quietest’ Month Since 2009 | ZeroHedge


9. The “Smartest” Funds in World Suffer FOMO ….Big Private Equity and Pensions Buying FTX at Top

From Irrelevant Investor Blog Michael Batnick

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/11/16/animal-spirits-the-crypto-blow-up/


10. The Collapse of British Empire

Scott Galloway–As they gained territory and resources, each empire continued to expand. Brits in 1910 had witnessed six decades of growth. With each land grab came greater stores of resources, more coffee and molasses to import to their island. This created new markets and business opportunities to fund more land grabs. And the wheel turned.

However, from the British Empire to the Qing Dynasty to the Ottomans, they all have one thing in common: They all fall.

https://www.profgalloway.com/hubris/