TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 25, 2025

1. How the Bunker Buster Bomb Works

The Guardian


2. America Has 40-50k Troops Across 19 Bases in Middle East

Al Jazeera


3. Israeli Stock Market Hits All-Time Highs….Tel Aviv 125 Chart

Investing.com


4. This Chart Shows Nuclear Energy ETF (NUKZ) vs. Semiconductor ETF (SMH)…Nuclear Outperforming

StockCharts


5. Defensive Sectors at 35 Year Low Weight in S&P 500

Defensives vs. SPX. As a share of the S&P 500, the combined weight of Defensive sectors is at a +35-year low.

Daily Chartbook


6. Crypto Year-to-Date

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright


7. The Average Home Owner Pays 2.5% Premium in Rates to Move Right Now

Bespoke


8. Gun Related by State

Visual Capitalist


9. The Greatest Stock Pickers of All-Time-Warren Buffett, Jim Simons and NANCY PELOSI.  Pelosi +54% 2024 Crushing All Global Hedge Funds…Huge Start to 2025

NY POST-Pelosi raked in millions last year — and her portfolio out-performed every large hedge fund with stunning returns.

She might be the She-Wolf of Wall Street.

Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-California) raked in between $7.8 and $42.5 million in 2024 — meaning her estimated net worth with venture capitalist hubby Paul Pelosi could now top out at $413 million, new financial disclosures showed.

The staggering sum is an eye-popping jump from 2023, when financial disclosures showed the couple’s net worth topping out at a possible $370 million. The Pelosi’s added between $7.8 and $42.5 million to their net worth in 2024. Pelosi’s exact net worth is not known because lawmakers are only required to disclose ranges.

Market research firm Quiver Quantitative, which estimates a single figure based on daily stock values it tracks, placed the pair’s 2024 worth at $257 million — up $26 million from a year earlier.

But the value of their various other ventures — which include but are not limited to a Napa Valley winery, ownership in a political data and consulting firm and a stake in a Bay area Italian restaurant — mean Pelosi’s worth could be far higher in the estimated range.

A large chunk of the couple’s fortune has come from a sizable stock portfolio and timely trades, all done in Paul Pelosi’s name.

The former House Speaker, who’s so infamous for trading Missouri Rep. Josh Hawley named a bill after her, and her husband dumped 5,000 shares of Microsoft stock worth an estimated $2.2 million in July — one of their largest sales in three years — a few short months before the FTC announced an antitrust investigation into the tech giant.

They also sold 2,000 shares — worth an estimated $525,000 — of Visa stock, less than three months before the credit card company was hit with a DOJ monopoly lawsuit.

Some have nicknamed Pelosi the “Queen of Stocks.” Getty Images for The Museum of Contemporary Art (MOCA)

Their best trade though might have been exercising a call option in December they bought in late 2023 at an estimated premium of $1.8 million, allowing them to nab 50,000 shares of hot AI chip stock NVIDIA for $12 a pop — less than one tenth of its market price.

In total the couple paid an estimated $2.4 million for the investment, which on paper is now worth more than $7.2 million.

NVIDIA wasn’t their only AI play of 2024.

The couple also paid between $600,000 and $1.25 million for a call option on California cybersecurity company Palo Alto Networks in February, the same week it was revealed the White House briefed lawmakers on a serious national security threat related to Russia.

The shares rose close to 20% in the days after the move.

A bill aiming to ban lawmakers and their spouses from trading individual stocks was named “The PELOSI Act.” Jack Forbes / NY Post Design

The option allowed the pair to scoop up 14,000 shares of Palo Alto in December at a $100 strike price — half its trading value. The company has been crushing earnings over the past year and the investment is now worth around $2.8 million.

But the Queen of Stocks did suffer one setback — when she and Paul Pelosi ditched 2,500 shares of former Department of Government Efficiency boss Elon Musk’s Tesla in June, losing somewhere between $100,000 and $1 million on the trade.

In all, their investment portfolio pulled in an estimated 54% return in 2024, more than double the S&P 500’s 25% gain — and beating every large hedge fund, according to numbers in Bloomberg’s end-of-year tally of hedge funds’ returns.

The couple is already off to a rocking 2025.

In January, they bought call options for then-little-known artificial intelligence health firm, Tempus AI, which has since inked a $200 million deal with AstraZeneca and doubled its stock price.

Pelosi and her good fortune have been at the center of arguments about why Congress shouldn’t be allowed to trade stocks. Ron Sachs – CNP for NY Post

The formidable profits come amid growing calls to ban Congress from trading individual stocks, arguing lawmakers have access to market-moving information ahead of the public.

Pelosi in the past rejected calls for a ban, stating “we’re a free‑market economy.”

She has since softened her stance in the face of growing criticism. When asked in May whether Congress should pass a trading ban, she replied, “If they do, they do.”

“Speaker Pelosi does not own any stocks, and she has no prior knowledge or subsequent involvement in any transactions,” a spokesperson told The Post.

The couple also took out call options for energy company Vistra — whose stock climbed last month after it unveiled a massive $1.9 billion deal to acquire natural gas facilities across the country from a private equity firm, citing rising US power demand.


10. Invest in Your Human Capital for a Good Life

Psychology Today: What economics can teach us about happiness.  Insights from economic concepts.

In her search for a more balanced and fulfilling life, van Horen found unexpected wisdom in economic concepts.

Constrained optimization refers to the idea of maximizing satisfaction within our given limits, explains van Horen. In economics, it’s about getting the best possible outcome given constraints like time, money, or other resources. In life, it means making the most of your energy, attention, and circumstances—not by doing more, but by choosing wisely.

Too often, we chase a single goal in isolation. For example, we might pursue career success or financial security, without accounting for what we might have to sacrifice elsewhere, including our health, relationships, or peace of mind. Constrained optimisation invites a shift. Instead of asking, “How can I achieve the most in this area?” it asks, “How can I find the best balance across everything that truly matters to me?”

Opportunity cost is the understanding that every decision comes with a trade-off. Saying yes to one thing means saying no to something else.

“Every action has a cost, even if it’s not always obvious,” says van Horen. “Often, we ignore the cost and focus only on the benefit.”

For example, if you agree to take on a task—perhaps to avoid disappointing others—the opportunity cost might be the time you won’t spend working on something meaningful to you. Placing our options side by side and consciously considering the opportunity cost can help us make more informed decisions. Ask yourself: What am I gaining? What am I giving up in the process? The key, according to van Horen, is awareness: realizing that doing one thing always comes at the expense of something else.

The law of diminishing marginal returns tells us that as you increase the amount of input or effort, the additional benefits or output will gradually decrease. In fact, beyond a certain point, additional effort can backfire, yielding even negative results.

In our striving and overachieving cultures, where perfectionism is pervasive and productivity is often fueled by pushing ourselves harder, slowing down can feel like a radical act.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 24, 2025

1. AI Growth

AI Report Card…Exponential View with 3 Charts:

Nearly every public benchmark has moved upward since last year, making previous standards of excellence look decidedly ordinary

The length of tasks AI can do is increasing.

Perhaps even more crucially, the unit costs of AI are plunging exponentially. Azeem Azhar: “This is central to my definition of exponential technology—not solely about improving performance but about rapidly collapsing costs for a given capability.”

Zach Goldberg Jefferies


2. 195 Countries in World Today….32 Have an AI Data Center

NYT


3. MAG 7 Returns 2025

Charlie Bilello


4. Strait of Hormuz Oil Destinations

Social Site News


5. Israel and U.S. Bomb Iran—Oil Collapses

Daily Chartbook


6. HIMS -35% in One Day…Still Not Back to May Lows….Still +66% Year to Date

StockCharts


7. Largest 3-Month Outflows from Small Cap Stocks Since 2007

The Irrelevant Investor


8. $320B Flows into Money Market Funds 2025

Bloomberg-Households have been a key driver of the inflows. Since the Fed started raising rates in March 2022, total assets under management in US money funds have swelled by roughly $2.5 trillion, and retail investors have accounted for about 60% of that, Investment Company Institute data show. Data from ICI exclude firms’ own internal money funds, unlike Crane Data, which tracks the money market industry.

VettaFi


9. Condo Sales Fall to 2012 Levels

Wolf Street


10. Walter Williams on Education

Thomas Sowell

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 23, 2025

1. May/June Higher Bullish

Ryan Detrick


2. Automation Deflationary and Upside Operating Cash Flow

The Upside of Automation…MS shows, the potential operating cash flow upside from GenAI automation.

Zachary Goldberg Jefferies


3. Dollars Decline Information

Yahoo!Finance

Analysts at a handful of banks including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. all point to recent shifts in so-called cross-currency basis swaps — a gauge of how much it costs to exchange one currency for another beyond what would normally be implied by borrowing costs in the cash markets. As demand for a particular currency increases, that extra cost or premium rises, and likewise declines or even can go negative when appetite isn’t as strong.

These analysts note that when markets melted down in April following US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, the preference for dollars as measured by basis swaps was relatively minor and short-lived. Meanwhile, demand for other currencies such as the euro and yen has grown. That stands in sharp contrast to previous scrambles for safety over the last two decades, such as the onset of the pandemic, which saw the dollar command a premium in global funding markets for a sustained period.

Over time, this waning preference for dollar liquidity, particularly relative to the euro, could ultimately make it more expensive to borrow Europe’s common currency relative to the greenback — presenting a challenge for the US currency at a time when its preeminent position in world finance is facing growing doubts.

“Recent cross-currency basis movements suggest investors have less appetite to buy dollar-denominated assets and more appetite to buy those denominated in euro and yen,” the Morgan Stanley team including Koichi Sugisak and Francesco Grechi wrote in a June report. In fact, the US tariff impact appeared to be “triggering a temporary withdrawal from dollar assets,” the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.


4. A Decade Worth of Volatility in 5 Years

A Wealth of Common Sense


5. Where Does America Get Its Uranium?  27% from Russia

Visual Capitalist


6. American Golden Dome Budget

MarketWatch


7. Big Gap in the Sky

Flightradar

Via Morning Brew: The Israel–Iran conflict has made vast swaths of airspace out of bounds for commercial aircraft in recent days, highlighting how the rising prevalence of wars is scrambling air travel.

A live flight map on FlightRadar24 displays a gaping hole in the plane swarms above Israel, Iraq, and Iran. Many airlines have also nixed flights to nearby hubs like Dubai and Doha as tensions escalate across the region.

Passengers have been stranded, while airlines face revenue losses and higher costs from longer, rerouted flights that burn more fuel. As a tenuous Israel–Iran ceasefire took hold yesterday, air carriers began restoring some flights in the region, while European and US airline stocks rose sharply.

But no-fly zones persist

Aviation issues didn’t start with the most recent conflagration:

  • Parts of the Middle East are still off limits to aircraft, while a planeless territory has existed over Ukraine and parts of western Russia since the war between the two countries began in 2022.
  • The square mileage of conflict zones has increased by 65% since 2021, according to risk consulting company Verisk Maplecroft.

This makes piloting harder…as flight reroutes lead to more crowded skies, creating congestion and straining control tower resources. Pilots flying near warzones also have to contend with GPS jamming, forcing them to rely on experience to gauge location and altitude.


8. 15% of Pending Home Sales Cancelled in May

Liz Ann Sonders


9. Progressive/Leftist Wins NYC Mayoral Primary…See Below

WSJ

Visual Capitaist


10. Mastering Time Management with Ravi

Reads with Ravi

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 20, 2025

1. Historical Price to Sales S&P

The Irrelevant Investor


2. Most Crowded Trades Gold

Crowded trades. ‘Long gold’ remains the most crowded trade (3rd consecutive month) followed by ‘Long Mag7’ and ‘Short USD’.

BofA via mikezaccardi


3. Ethereum ETF Big Rally Off Lows…Right Back into Range 2023-2025

StockCharts


4. Trade Between U.S. and China Rolling Over Hard

Ritzholz


5. M&A Deals Down But Total Value +3.8%

FinChart


6. More Demand from Energy Grid…Summer AC Use at Records

Sherwood


7. Wealthiest 10% Now Account for Half of U.S. Consumer Spending

Bloomberg


8. Credit Card Points are the World’s Third-Largest Currency

Point.Me


9. Pew Research on Budget Bill

Pew Research Center


10. Every Leader Should Be a Student of Psychology

To lead well, one must understand what drives and influences relationship.

Key points

  • Leadership is inherently relational, not positional, and technical skills alone are not enough.
  • Emotional intelligence is foundational to leadership success.
  • The study of psychology should be a deliberate practice for leaders.

Via Psychology Today: There’s a pervasive myth that still lingers in leadership classrooms: the idea that good leaders are simply born with presence, confidence, and instinct. While those traits may help some individuals ascend to positions of authority, they are insufficient for navigating the human complexities that leadership demands. To be effective in today’s ever-evolving organizational landscape, leaders must be students of psychology (in both principle and practice) if they hope to lead effectively.

About Leadership

Three things matter in Leadership: Relationships, Relationships, and Relationships. Leadership is, at its core, a relational practice. It is not about authority (or positional power); it is about influence. And influence is rooted in an understanding of human behavior, motivation, emotion, and interaction. It is important that a leader understand the behavior of others as well as their own.

As I often remind students and colleagues alike, no matter how technically skilled a leader may be, their impact is limited if they cannot connect with, motivate, and adapt to the emotional and psychological needs of their teams. In the program I direct at Teachers College, Columbia University, we require students to take two foundational courses that emphasize this belief: Self-Awareness Training and Social-Emotional Learning.

Emotional Intelligence: Leadership’s Secret Ingredient

One of the most foundational psychological principles in leadership is emotional intelligence (EI), a concept introduced by Mayer and Salovey1 and later popularized by Daniel Goleman. Goleman’s research demonstrated that EI contributes more to workplace success than IQ, particularly in high-pressure environments2. Why is that the case? Emotionally intelligent leaders can perceive and regulate their own emotions (especially during stressful moments), empathize with others’ experiences, build trust, and de-escalate conflict.

A study conducted in Palopo, Indonesia, for example, revealed that school leaders with high EI had a direct and positive impact on teacher performance. This success stemmed from their capacity to recognize emotions, manage relationships, and create workplace harmony3.

In practical terms, when individuals feel seen, understood, and supported, their ability to perform and collaborate improves significantly.

Why This Matters

We are living in a time defined by constant change, social complexity, and new demands on leadership. Today’s teams are more diverse, geographically distributed, and dynamic than ever before. Leaders who understand the psychology of their people are more likely to foster positive cultures, reduce conflict, and increase performance/productivity4.

Those who use emotional intelligence and motivational theory to inform their leadership behaviors are not only better equipped to lead diverse teams but also more capable of sustaining organizational well-being over time. The most effective leaders going forward will not necessarily be those with the loudest voices or the most polished résumés. They will be those who understand how people think and feel, who communicate in ways that resonate, and who create environments in which people feel psychologically safe. These are not “soft skills” (as often labeled). They are critical survival skills for effective leadership through today’s challenges.

If you are in a leadership role (or aspire to be in one), consider this your invitation to become a student of psychology. Not for the sake of theory, but for the sake of better practice. Start by exploring the basics: emotional intelligence, motivational theory, and self-awareness. Read. Reflect. Ask better questions. Challenge your assumptions. And above all, lead with curiosity and compassion.

Leadership is not about you. It is about those you serve. And understanding the psychology of leadership may be one of the most powerful tools you can include in your box.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 17, 2025

1. Watch for Short-Term Bounce in Dollar…Too Many Bears

A Wealth of Common Sense


2. Consensus Weak Dollar and Majority Think International Stocks Outperform?

Bloomberg


3. S&P Sectors % Above 50day and P/E Valuation vs. 10-Year Average

Bespoke Investment Group Looking at sectors, Energy now has the highest percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages at 91.3%, and the Energy sector’s valuation relative to the last ten years is on the low side compared to the rest of the market.  Financials and Technology currently have the highest valuations relative to readings over the last ten years.

Bespoke


4. Weekly Crypto Asset Flows

Crypto asset flows. “Digital asset investment products saw US$1.9bn in inflows last week, marking the 9th consecutive week and a record YTD total of US$13.2bn. Bitcoin rebounded with US$1.3bn in inflows, while Ethereum saw US$583m inflows, its strongest since February.”

Paychart Books


5. Tether Reserves Breakdown

FinChart


6. JPMorgan moves further into crypto with stablecoin-like token JPMD

Key Points

  • U.S. banking giant JPMorgan is launching its alternative to a stablecoin called JPMD.
  • The new product is a so-called deposit token that’s designed to serve as a digital representation of commercial bank money.
  • JPMorgan said the benefit of launching a deposit token over a stablecoin is the close connection with traditional banking systems.

Via CNBC: JPMorgan Chase is taking a step further into the cryptocurrency space with its own stablecoin-like token, called JPMD.

The U.S. banking giant told CNBC on Tuesday that it’s planning to launch a so-called deposit token on Coinbase’s public blockchain Base, which is built on top of the Ethereum network. Each deposit token is meant to serve as a digital representation of a commercial bank deposit.

JPMD will offer clients round-the-clock settlement as well as the ability to pay interest to holders. It is a so-called “permissioned token,” meaning it is only available to JPMorgan’s institutional clients — unlike many stablecoins, which are publicly available.

“We see institutions using JPMD for onchain digital asset settlement solutions as well as for making cross-border business-to-business transactions,” Naveen Mallela, global co-head of Kinexys, J.P. Morgan’s blockchain unit, told CNBC Tuesday.

“Given the fact that deposit tokens would eventually be interest bearing as well, this would provide better fungibility with existing deposit products that institutions currently use,” he added.


7. High Yield Bond ETF New Highs

StockCharts


8. Home Inventory Increasing and Number of Owners Planning to Sell in Next 6 Months

Joe notes that we haven’t seen inventory build up anything like this since the GFC. And outside that, nothing else in the last 40 years.

Dave Lutz Jones Trading

The JPM survey sees a jump in homeowners planning to sell in the next ~6 months.


9. Metros with Home Prices Going Negative

The growing list of year-over-year price declines-Wolf Street.

In May, the list of year-over-year decliners got a new member, Seattle. In total, of the 33 MSAs here, 18 show year-over-year declines, up from 6 at the end of 2024. In all of those 18 metros, the year-over-year declines worsened.

Year-over-year declines in May:

  1. Austin: -5.5%
  2. Tampa: -5.5%
  3. Dallas: -3.4%
  4. Phoenix: -3.4%
  5. San Antonio: -3.3%
  6. Orlando: -3.2%
  7. Miami: -3.2%
  8. Atlanta: -2.7%
  9. San Francisco: -2.5%
  10. Denver: -2.4%
  11. San Diego: -1.9%
  12. Raleigh: -1.8%
  13. Honolulu: -1.7%
  14. Houston: -1.5%
  15. Sacramento: -1.4%
  16. Charlotte: -0.9%
  17. Portland: -0.5%
  18. Seattle: -0.1% (newest addition)

10. Your Morning Coffee Can Help You Live Longer — As Long As It’s This Type Of Brew

Coffee carries life-lengthening health benefits, but not if you’re adding flavors and creams to it.

In a nutshell:

  • Coffee drinkers who consumed 1-3 cups daily had a 15-17% lower risk of dying early compared to non-coffee drinkers
  • Health benefits only applied to black coffee or coffee with minimal added sugar (less than half a teaspoon per cup) and saturated fat
  • Coffee drinks high in sugar and saturated fat showed no protective effects, potentially eliminating coffee’s health benefits entirely

Via Study Finds: Americans love their coffee, with about half of us reaching for a cup every single day. And here’s some news that might make your morning brew taste even better: that daily coffee habit could be cutting your risk of dying early by up to 17% — but there’s a catch that could cancel out the benefits.

A study tracking nearly 50,000 American adults for more than a decade found that coffee drinkers lived longer than those who skipped their daily caffeine fix. The twist? The life-extending benefits were only seen in people who drank black coffee or coffee with very little added sugar and saturated fat. Those sugary, creamy coffee shop drinks? They offered no measurable health advantage.

According to the study, coffee with higher levels of added sugar and saturated fat was not associated with lower death rates. Moreover, the benefits were not seen in people who preferred a decaf brew. The research took a detailed look at what Americans are actually putting in their coffee, and the findings raise red flags about our sweetened coffee culture.

Nearly 50,000 Americans Tracked for Over a Decade

Researchers from Tufts University analyzed coffee drinking habits and health outcomes in 46,322 adults aged 20 and older who participated in U.S. government health surveys between 1999 and 2018. Participants were followed for roughly 9 to 11 years, with actual mortality outcomes tracked using National Death Index records.

During that time, 7,074 participants died — 1,176 from cancer and 1,089 from cardiovascular disease. Compared to non-coffee drinkers, those who drank coffee had significantly lower mortality rates. The greatest benefit appeared in people drinking 2 to 3 cups a day, who had a 17% lower risk of dying during the follow-up period. Even those who drank less than a cup a day saw an 11% lower risk.

Why Sweetened Coffee May Cancel the Health Benefits

The researchers also examined what went into those cups of coffee. Each beverage was classified based on how much added sugar and saturated fat it contained per 8-ounce serving.

Drinking black coffee was associated with a 14% lower risk of all-cause mortality. Coffee with small amounts of added sugar (under 2.5 grams per cup) and saturated fat (under 1 gram per cup) also showed the same 14% reduction.

But for people drinking coffee with higher amounts of sugar and saturated fat, there was no statistically significant reduction in risk of death. For context, the average U.S. coffee drink contains 3.24 grams of added sugar and 0.52 grams of saturated fat per 8-ounce cup, suggesting that many Americans are overshooting the threshold where coffee may offer health benefits.

Caffeine Key to Longevity

The study, published in The Journal of Nutrition, also found that caffeinated coffee — not decaf — was driving most of the observed health benefits. While decaffeinated coffee showed no clear association with longevity, caffeinated coffee was linked to reduced risk of death from both all causes and cardiovascular disease.

That’s in line with previous research suggesting that caffeine may play a protective role by boosting metabolism, reducing inflammation, and improving insulin sensitivity. Coffee also contains other bioactive compounds like chlorogenic acid and polyphenols that are thought to have antioxidant and anti-inflammatory effects.

Interestingly, the protective effects of coffee were only observed among people who did not drink tea. Among tea drinkers, the association between coffee and longevity disappeared, though the study doesn’t explain why.

It’s Best To Be Basic

For the estimated 150 million Americans who drink coffee daily, this study delivers both a bit of good news and a wake-up call. The good news: your coffee habit could be helping you live longer. The reality check: if your go-to drink includes lots of sugar, cream, or flavored syrups, those potential benefits may be lost.

Researchers adjusted for a wide range of lifestyle and health variables, including age, sex, race, income, smoking, alcohol use, exercise, diet quality, and preexisting conditions. Even then, the association between simple coffee and lower mortality still held up.

The takeaway? A basic cup of coffee, especially when consumed black or lightly sweetened, may be one of the healthiest parts of your day. But when that cup starts to resemble dessert and doesn’t have caffeine, the health perks may disappear.