1. Average Life Span of S&P 500 Company Shrinking
2. Yield Curve Update-Longest Inversion in History Steepening
Jim Reid Deutsche Bank
Regular readers will know that I’m a big fan of the predictive power of the yield curve in terms of forecasting the US cycle. However it’s fair to say that its predictive power in this cycle looks to have malfunctioned. 2s10s has been inverted for 26 months continuously, which is the longest ever, and there still hasn’t been a recession.
So with the 2s10s poking its head into positive territory over the last 24 hours, it’s tempting to suggest we can sound the all-clear.
But today‘s CoTD shows we’re not out of the woods yet, as recessions start when curves are re-steepening and not when close to their maximum inversion point. Indeed the last 4 recessions only began once the curve was positive again. Henry’s piece from last year (link here) looks at those examples of how the curve steepened into positive territory before the recession.
Of course, a perfect soft landing would also bring a steeper curve, as the Fed will be able to cut and lower yields at the front-end. So whichever way you lean, a positive sloping curve (if we continue to move in that direction) likely brings forward the moment of truth as to whether the yield curve has completely failed as a leading indicator in this cycle, or whether its powers were just felt later than in other cycles through history.
3. TLT 20 Year Treasury Breaks Out to New High
4. More Detailed Post Election Returns Map
5. It’s Not 1999..Large Tech Trading at Half the Valuations of Internet Bubble
MarketEar Blog
6. Corporate Buybacks Slowdown Period
Dave Lutz Jones Trading
US corporates have been the largest buyer of the equity market, and we expect their demand to drop by -35% during the closed window,” Rubner wrote. “This week is peak open-window for corporates.”
7. REIT Sentiment Chart
Topdown Charts
https://www.topdowncharts.com/
8. Manufacturing % of U.S. Economy
DC Lite Blog
Manufacturing jobs. “Manufacturing is not the economy.” https://www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-194-327
9. Parkinson’s may begin in the gut, study says, adding to growing evidence
MSN-Story by Meeri Kim
A new study adds to a growing body of evidence that Parkinson’s disease, long believed to have its origins in the brain, may begin in the gut.
Gastrointestinal problems are common in patients with neurodegenerative disorders, to the point where a condition known as “institutional colon” was once thought to afflict those who lived in mental health institutions. In Parkinson’s disease, the entire gastrointestinal tract is affected, causing complications such as constipation, drooling, trouble swallowing and delayed emptying of the stomach. These symptoms often appear up to two decades before motor symptoms such as rigidity or tremor.
“People have, for the longest time, described Parkinson’s disease as a top-down disease — so, it starts in the brain and then percolates down to the gut, and that’s why patients have issues with their gastrointestinal tract,” said study author Subhash Kulkarni, an assistant professor at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center. “Another hypothesis suggests that, in many patients, it may be a bottom-up approach, where it starts in the gut and goes all the way up to the brain.”
Kulkarni and his colleagues found that people with upper gastrointestinal conditions — in particular, ulcers or other types of damage to the lining of the esophagus, stomach, or upper part of the small intestine — were far more likely to develop Parkinson’s disease later in life. The study was published online Thursday in JAMA Network Open.
Trisha Pasricha, the senior author of the study, is the Ask a Doctor columnist for The Washington Post. She was not involved in the reporting of this article.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/ar-AA1q3r8C
10. Practicing These 3 Good Habits for the Rest of Your Life Will Be a Difference Maker
The challenge with forming good habits for success is picking the right ones. Here are three to consider.
Expert Opinion By Marcel Schwantes, Inc. contributing editor, executive coach, speaker, and author @MarcelSchwantes
One of the most valuable insights into life and success revolves around the underestimated power of habits. It’s often said that people don’t fully appreciate just how important habits are until they get older.
As we age, we realize how difficult it can be to change habits, especially those ingrained over decades. This is why it’s crucial to form the right habits early on.
The challenge with forming good habits is picking the right ones! Not all habits are the same; some help us grow and achieve, while others hold us back and make us feel unsatisfied.
Her Dog Was Sick. Really Sick. She Turned His Cure Into a Fast-Growing Busines
So, what’s the key? It’s to identify habits that match our values and long-term goals and nurture them intentionally. Here are three to consider:
1. Living with integrity
Living and working with integrity brings significant benefits, both personally and professionally. When you operate with integrity, people trust you. They know you’re reliable and ethical and won’t cut corners. This trust helps build stronger relationships with colleagues, clients, and customers. Furthermore, maintaining integrity enhances your reputation, opening up new opportunities and advancing your career. Investor Warren Buffett once said, “In looking for people to hire, you look for three qualities: integrity, intelligence, and energy. And if they don’t have the first one, the other two will kill you.”
2. Getting smarter each day
Embracing a growth mindset and making a commitment to lifelong learning are really important habits for success. Think about how you can go to bed a little smarter each day, because when you do, it leads to greater achievements. For example, regular reading and learning can make a big difference in your personal and professional life. The saying “the more you learn, the more you’ll earn” really shows how valuable education and self-improvement are.
3. Simplifying your life
Keeping things simple can lead to long-term success and financial security. Instead of splurging and getting into unnecessary debt, focusing on saving and investing is a great idea these days. Many successful people use their resources to help others, rather than just chasing after personal riches. This shows that living modestly can truly make a positive impact on society.
By embracing the power of simple habits and consciously cultivating the right ones, we can set ourselves on a path to success, fulfillment, and a life well-lived. www.inc.com