Topley’s Top 10 – September 20, 2021

1. Crypto Now $2.5 Trillion Market…6500 Total Cryptos.

Barrons

Inside the Coming War Over Digital Currencies—and What It Means for Your MoneyBy 

Daren Fonda

https://www.barrons.com/articles/coming-war-money-cryptos-51631845330?mod=past_editions


2. The CRB Commodity Index hit a 6-year high this week and is up 122% from its low in 2020.

@CharlieBilello


3. S&P Dividend and Treasury Yields Are Nearly Identical

Bespoke-On February 25th of this year, the 10-Year Treasury yield surpassed the dividend yield of the S&P 500 for the first time since January 17th, 2020.  Currently, the S&P 500’s dividend yield stands at 1.33% vs. the 10-Year’s yield of 1.31%, so they’re essentially right inline with each other at the moment.

Since 1971, the 10-Year yield has been higher than that of the S&P 90.7% of the time, and the median spread between the 10-Year yield and the S&P’s dividend yield has been +3.5 percentage points. Both yields are much lower than their typical level since 1970. The S&P’s dividend yield has been higher than its current level 94.62% of the time. As for the 10-Year Treasury, its yield has been higher 97.55% of the time.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/sp-dividend-and-treasury-yields-are-nearly-identical


4. Shanghai and Baltic Freight Index Unprecedented Increase in Shipping Costs.

“The supply chain challenges have only worsened of late,” BofA economists wrote.

BOFA GLOBAL RESEARCH REPORT FROM SEPT. 17 2021

 

Marketwatch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-challenges-stock-market-underpinnings-as-investors-look-ahead-to-fed-meeting-11631971001?mod=home-page


5. But…..S&P Air Freight & Logistics Index Correcting

Supply Chain….-12% correction from highs…right on 200 day moving average

www.stockcharts.com


6. Door Dash Worth as Much as Uber

Chartr.com blog

 www.chartr.com


7. Another Trend Working Against Office Space….38% of Co2 Emissions are Buildings.

Buildings, not cars, are the biggest source of carbon emissions

Source: Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction, 2020 Global Status Report. Data includes all CO2 emissions in 2019.

Beyond the FAANGs: Tech savvy companies in non-tech sectors

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/beyond-faangs-tech-savvy-companies.html


8. No Signs of Stress in Chinese Money Market Funds….With Recent Political Over Reach and Property Blow Up….No Systemic Stress.

LPL Research As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, China’s money markets aren’t showing any signs of systemic risk. These tend to be the canary in the coal mine, and the fallout appears to be fairly contained as of now.

View enlarged chart.

Why Evergrande Isn’t The Next Lehman


9. United States: The Treasury curve has been flattening at the longer end, which may signify falling inflation expectations

The Daily Shot Blog

Source: Guggenheim

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-september-17th-2021/


10. The 7 Keys to Real Success

Psychology Today Lawrence R. Samuel Ph.D.

The 7 Keys to Real Success

Adopting an alternative narrative of success can lead to greater happiness.

KEY POINTS

  • Society heavily defines achievement, acquisitions, and upward mobility as success.
  • Research has shown outer-directed measures of success to be less correlated with contentment and satisfaction in life than inner-directed ones. 
  • Adopting an alternative narrative of success may be more likely to lead to happiness.

By all the usual measures, I have a friend who might be considered an unsuccessful person. In her early 30s, she’s had no career and has never been in a serious relationship. Her professional and personal lives have never taken off, something of which she is keenly aware but doesn’t seem too bothered by.

By a different set of measures, however, I would say this woman is very successful. She’s intelligent and funny and is known in the neighborhood as a kind and generous person. She spends a lot of time caring for her mother, with whom she lives, and walks dogs and babysits to make some money. While she can’t afford luxuries, she’s well-liked, happy, and spends her time as she wishes.

My friend’s case nicely illustrates the complexities attached to the subject of success in America. Our classic narrative of success is heavily defined by achievement, acquisitions, and upward mobility. Those who don’t subscribe to those measures, whether by choice or otherwise, are often (and mistakenly) cast as losers. Those who’ve amassed the primary symbols of success—a well-paying job, a nice home, and traditional family life—are generally seen as the winners.

However, anecdotal and hard evidence shows that the so-called winners are no happier than the so-called losers. In fact, according to several research studies, outer-directed measures of success are less correlated with contentment and satisfaction in life than inner-directed ones. Still, recognized experts continue to prescribe the recipes of and for externally defined success, reinforcing the classic narrative.

I propose an alternative narrative of success that is more likely to lead to happiness than the one we have been taught to embrace. There are seven keys to real success, I believe, which are as follows:

1.   Rejecting the standard model predicated on money, power, and fame.In America, we equate money, power, and fame with success, making it no surprise that many are in hot pursuit of one or more of them. Besides the fact that most of us fail in this pursuit, realizing any of them rarely delivers the kind of happiness we expected them to.

2.   Avoiding comparisons to others. Stacking your achievements, no matter how significant, against those of others is an unwinnable proposition. There is always someone else who has accomplished bigger and/or better things, making it unwise to view success in relative terms.

3.   Taking a holistic view of yourself. Rather than focus on your career or personal life, it’s more productive to see yourself as a complete individual. Each of us is unique in our own way, leading to the unarguable truth that no one is more successful of being you than you.

4.   Celebrating your victories, no matter how big or small. Many of us are hesitant to declare victory when we achieve something worthy, always waiting for a bigger victory to happen. Instead of entering this purgatorial state of success, relish every victory that comes your way.

5.   Accepting failures. Failing to reach the desired goal is entirely normal, as it is the chase rather than the capture that offers more fulfillment. Take comfort in the fact that the average major league baseball getting paid millions of dollars a year gets a hit one in four times and will get into the Hall of Fame if he can do it one in three chances.

6.   Prioritizing relationships with other people. Our model of success is overwhelmingly me-centric, i.e., grounded in individualism and serving one’s self-interests. More than anything else, however, humans are social organisms, suggesting that success should be defined in how we relate to and ideally improve the lives of others.

7.   Leaving something behind. I’m a big believer in legacy, meaning what remains of us after our bodies are no more. In the big scheme of things, we’re here for a relatively short period of time, making it important that our lives continue to resonate for as long as possible.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/future-trends/202109/the-7-keys-real-success