1. Utilities and Staples Beating Tech in 2024
The more cyclical Technology ($XLK) and Consumer Discretionary ($XLY) sectors are now underperforming the more defensive Utilities ($XLU) and Consumer Staples ($XLP) sectors on the year.
2. PLTR Hitting New Highs-Peter Thiel Selling $1B of Shares
Palantir disclosed in a regulatory form in August that Rivendell 7 LLC, an investment vehicle owned by co-founder and Chairman Peter Thiel, on May 15 adopted a so-called Rule 10b5-1 plan allowing for the sale of as many as 28,590,737 shares by Dec. 31, 2025, or earlier.
3. GOOGL Antitrust
Morningbrew
BIG TECH
The antitrust trial that could upend advertising
They say lightning doesn’t strike twice, but the Department of Justice certainly does. Google reported to court yesterday to defend itself against monopoly allegations for the second time in less than a year in a new case that has the potential to strip the world’s largest online advertiser of a chunk of its ad business.
Hair of the DOJ. About a month after a federal judge decried Google’s search engine dominance as anti-competitive, regulators are now trying to prove that Google unfairly dominates the digital ad space, too. The DOJ alleges:
- Google’s trifecta of software products for ad sellers, ad buyers, and real-time ad auctioning account for 91%, 40% to 80%, and at least 50% of their respective markets.
- Cornering both the supply and demand sides lets Google keep $0.36 from every dollar spent on ad deals it brokers.
Google says…its ad tech is successful because it’s the best. The search giant also panned the DOJ for only focusing on website ads, since the market has expanded to mobile apps, social media, and streaming.
But…regulators say YouTube CEO Neal Mohan will testify that Google has sometimes required ad sellers to either use all or none of its tools, steering them away from competitors.
Looking ahead…the DOJ wants Google to sever its popular Ad Manager services from the rest of its business, which some industry experts say could level the field and lead to better data privacy regulations in online advertising.—M
https://www.morningbrew.com/daily
GOOGL -21% from July Highs….Close Below 200-day
4. Walgreens Worse Performing Stock S&P 500 2024….-67%
5. Gasoline Futures Sub $2 Per Gallon
Energy: US gasoline futures are now trading below $2/gal.
Source: The Daily Shot https://dailyshotbrief.com/
6. Small Business Optimism Index Disappoints
Bespoke Investment Group
Looking under the hood of the report, there wasn’t much to like. Of the inputs to the Optimism Index, only two rose month over month: Plans to Make Capital Outlays and Job Openings as Hard to Fill. The latter of those is by far the strongest category of the report with the August reading in the 92nd percentile of all months. Outside of that, there are four inputs to the optimism index and another three non-input categories that now rank in the bottom decile of readings. Some of those like Actual Earnings Changes and Expectations for Higher Real Sales also fell significantly month over month with bottom decile monthly moves.
https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/horrible-small-business-earnings
7. India Now Has the 3rd Highest Number of VC Backed Unicorns ($1B valuation) -Pitchbook
8. The Danger of Chasing High Dividend Payers
9. Golden Visas—I Heard this Mentioned on Prof G Markets Podcast so Checked it Out
Henley Global
An Overview of Golden Visas-In its most basic form, golden visa acquisition, or residence by investment and citizenship by investment, denotes the process whereby qualified, vetted candidates are granted either full residence or citizenship rights in exchange for a defined economic contribution to the host country. Golden visa programs give high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) the option of physically relocating to a favorable jurisdiction — either now or upon retirement — and becoming residents of that state with full legal rights, including the right to live, work, study, and receive healthcare in that country.
Benefits of holding a golden visa-A golden visa provides investors and their families with access to new markets and a host of business, career, educational, healthcare, tax, and lifestyle opportunities on a worldwide scale, for both present and future generations. Many golden visa programs allow the successful applicant to apply for citizenship after a few years of residence, such as the Portugal Golden Residence Permit Program, which offers citizenship eligibility after five years. The Greece Golden Visa Program allows investors to apply for citizenship after seven years, and the Italy Residence by Investment Program after 10 years.
Providing increased optionality worldwide along with the ability to hedge against potential risk and volatility, golden visas allow HNWIs and their families to:
- Secure an alternative safe haven
- Enrich and expand their lifestyle and business opportunities
- Enjoy a high quality of life and access to excellent infrastructure
- Access world-class healthcare at leading facilities
- Attend first-rate educational institutions
Golden visa countries
There is now golden visa legislation in place in over 100 countries around the world, spanning five continents. Over 60% of EU member states have programs that are functional and active, with the UK and the US having among the world’s longest running golden visa programs. Other popular golden visa countries include Portugal, Spain, Greece, Malta, Australia, Canada, Italy, and the UK. Discover the full list of more than 40 golden visa programs that Henley & Partners promotes.
https://www.henleyglobal.com/residence-investment/golden-visa
10. How to Tell a Great Story -Seth Godin
Ode: How to tell a great story
Chris Fralic reminded me of this piece I wrote for Ode.
Great stories succeed because they are able to capture the imagination of large or important audiences.
A great story is true. Not necessarily because it’s factual, but because it’s consistent and authentic. Consumers are too good at sniffing out inconsistencies for a marketer to get away with a story that’s just slapped on.
Great stories make a promise. They promise fun, safety or a shortcut. The promise needs to be bold and audacious. It’s either exceptional or it’s not worth listening to.
\Great stories are trusted. Trust is the scarcest resource we’ve got left. No one trusts anyone. People don’t trust the beautiful women ordering vodka at the corner bar (they’re getting paid by the liquor company). People don’t trust the spokespeople on commercials (who exactly is Rula Lenska?). And they certainly don’t trust the companies that make pharmaceuticals (Vioxx, apparently, can kill you). As a result, no marketer succeeds in telling a story unless he has earned the credibility to tell that story.
Great stories are subtle. Surprisingly, the fewer details a marketer spells out, the more powerful the story becomes. Talented marketers understand that allowing people to draw their own conclusions is far more effective than announcing the punch line.
Great stories happen fast. First impressions are far more powerful than we give them credit for.
Great stories don’t always need eight-page color brochures or a face-to-face meeting. Either you are ready to listen or you aren’t.
Great stories don’t appeal to logic, but they often appeal to our senses. Pheromones aren’t a myth. People decide if they like someone after just a sniff.
Great stories are rarely aimed at everyone. Average people are good at ignoring you. Average people have too many different points of view about life and average people are by and large satisfied. If you need to water down your story to appeal to everyone, it will appeal to no one. The most effective stories match the world view of a tiny audience—and then that tiny audience spreads the story.
Great stories don’t contradict themselves. If your restaurant is in the right location but had the wrong menu, you lose. If your art gallery carries the right artists but your staff is made up of rejects from a used car lot, you lose. Consumers are clever and they’ll see through your deceit at once.
Most of all, great stories agree with our world view. The best stories don’t teach people anything new. Instead, the best stories agree with what the audience already believes and makes the members of the audience feel smart and secure when reminded how right they were in the first place.
Ode: How to tell a great story