TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 24, 2024

1. Stock Factor Rotation Since July 10th

@Charlie Bilello
Within the US the market, we’ve seen a factor rotation since July 10 with Small Caps ($VBR) outperforming Large Caps ($SPY) and Value ($IWD) outperforming Growth ($IWF).

This is a reversal from the prior secular trend which saw Large Cap outperformance hit its highest level since October 1999 and Growth stock outperformance hit its highest level since March 2000.


2. Sector Performance Post Rate Cuts

Advisor Perspectives -by Tony DeSpirito of BlackRock

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/10/24/interest-rates-fall-new-stock-opportunities-arise


3. UPS was at $180 in 2023..Earnings Beat Today


4. KKR Assets (AUM) Jump 19% Year Over Year

KKR chart straight up to right


5. Southern state could become ‘white gold’ boom town after $150 billion lithium reserve discovery

By NIKKI MAIN SCIENCE REPORTER FOR DAILYMAIL.COM

Arkansas is sitting on a $150 billion ‘hidden treasure’ trove of lithium that could meet the global demand for EV batteries by 2030.
The US Geological Survey (USGS) found between five and 19 million tons of lithium in the Smackover Formation, which is nine times the amount needed to meet the ongoing electric vehicle demand  in the US by the end of the decade.
The metal is a necessary component for batteries used in EVs and can be extracted from the brine wastewater from the same mines that produce oil and gas.
Lithium is a critical mineral for the energy transition, and the potential for increased U.S. production to replace imports has implications for employment, manufacturing and supply-chain resilience,’ USGS Director David Applegate said.
‘This study illustrates the value of science in addressing economically important issues.’
Several companies, including Exxon Mobil, have already begun drilling exploratory wells to extract the lithium from 4,000 feet below ground.
The global demand for lithium has drastically increased in recent years as countries move to transition from using fossil fuels in gas-powered cars to electric and hybrid vehicles.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13988211/Arkansas-lithium-reserve-solve-EV-battery-demand.html


6. The U.S. Growth Since 2019 vs. G-7

Irrelevant Investor Blog-Michael Batnick

https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/animal-spirits-the-1990s-really-were-better


7. Why are We Leading Our Peers? Morningbrew  We Work Harder

Why the US economy is leading its peers
Anna Kim
While Italians scoff at Americano slop and Japanese people cringe at stateside 7-Eleven hot dogs, Americans are having the last laugh when it comes to economic prosperity.
The US economy is doing better than that of any other member of the rich countries club (aka the Group of Seven), the International Monetary Fund said yesterday. The global economy watcher upgraded its prediction for US GDP growth to 2.8% this year, compared to the 0.9% average for all G7 countries.
Economists attribute the strength of the US economy to rising inflation-adjusted wages and strong consumer spending, all fueled by longtime investment. Experts say it boils down to Americans being more efficient workers.

Americans get more done

US workers are more productive than their counterparts in Europe and Japan, but probably not because they take shorter vacations or drink less wine at lunch. US companies have more money to invest in innovation due to lower energy prices and strong government support.
Workers benefit from updated machinery and software to operate more efficiently. According to The Economist:

  • The average US worker will churn out $171,000 of goods and services this year, compared to $120,000 for a European employee and $96,000 for one in Japan.
  • Americans’ hourly productivity has risen 70% since 1990, compared to just 29% in Europe and 25% in Japan, according to Conference Board data analyzed by The Economist.

The US owes its economic powerhouse status to a robust business environment, in which workers switch jobs often and new companies pop up, according to The Economist. These conditions give rise to its dominant tech sector and other lucrative industries that create economic value.
But…productivity growth is declining worldwide, including in the US, which is bad news for global economic growth. AI might reverse this trend. Some economists are optimistic that it will boost productivity and turbocharge economies, but the IMF cites experts who say that governments need to do more to promote a competitive environment and support smaller businesses.—SK 

https://www.morningbrew.com/daily


8. U.S. Home Equity is $35 Trillion

St. Louis Fed noted, Americans have more than $35 trillion in home equity, which is up by 81% from the end of 2019.


9. Rates Rising Again…Mortgage applications fell 17% last week. That’s the largest weekly drop since April 2020.

Source: Liz Ann Sonders


10. ‘Silent Phase’ Of Alzheimer’s Begins Decades Before Symptoms, NIH Study Suggests

BY TYLER DURDEN ZEROHEDGE

Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Recent advancements in Alzheimer’s disease research show a promising shift in the understanding of the memory-robbing disorder, suggesting that crucial brain changes can occur decades before symptoms manifest.
​A recent study has identified a two-phase progression of Alzheimer’s, highlighting a silent phase marked by subtle brain changes long before cognitive decline becomes apparent.​
Alzheimer’s disease has a long pre-symptomatic period, with related changes taking place in the brain “10, 15, even 20 years before the onset of memory and thinking symptoms,” Igor Camargo Fontana, Alzheimer’s Association director of scientific conference programming, told The Epoch Times.
This research could also open new avenues for earlier detection and targeted treatments.
“One of the challenges to diagnosing and treating Alzheimer’s is that much of the damage to the brain happens well before symptoms occur,” Dr. Richard J. Hodes, director of the NIH National Institute on Aging, said in a statement. “The ability to detect these early changes means that, for the first time, we can see what is happening to a person’s brain during the earliest periods of the disease.”

The Early Phase: Silent and Gradual Damage

A recent National Institutes of Health (NIH)-funded study provided new insights into the progression of Alzheimer’s disease, potentially paving the way for earlier detection and treatment options.
The findings, published in Nature Neuroscience, say that Alzheimer’s affects the brain in two distinct phases: an early, silent phase characterized by subtle changes, and a later, symptomatic phase marked by widespread damage and the accumulation of amyloid plaques, long associated with the disorder.
Researchers have found that the initial phase of Alzheimer’s is insidious, unfolding slowly over time and occurring well before noticeable memory problems arise. During this phase, a gradual buildup of beta-amyloid plaques and tangles—hallmarks of Alzheimer’s—can be observed.
This early “quiet” phase is marked by subtle changes in brain cells, particularly inhibitory neurons, which may be among the first to become vulnerable, disrupting communication between brain cells, according to Fontana. These cells are mostly located in a brain region that is associated with memory, vision, and language.
The research specifically identified the death of somatostatin inhibitory neurons, a group previously underestimated in their role within Alzheimer’s pathology. This finding challenges the prevailing notion that the disease primarily harms excitatory neurons responsible for facilitating brain cell communication.

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/silent-phase-alzheimers-begins-decades-symptoms-nih-study-suggests