Topley’s Top 10 – November 28, 2023

1. Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index Loosening.

The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index is a weighted average of short-term interest rates, long-term interest rates, the trade-weighted dollar, an index of credit spreads, and the ratio of equity prices to the 10-year average of earnings per share.

@Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)Untightening:  A big driver of the gains from the October lows has been the substantial easing of financial conditions (thanks to lower bond yields, lower oil prices, weaker USD, tighter credit spreads). In this respect there is a fundamental aspect to it, but how much further can things ease on this front?

Source: DailyShot via @LanceRoberts

2. Magnificent 7 and 5% Money Markets Leave Dividend Paying ETFs Lagging

3. Amazon Delivering More Packages than UPS

Dave Lutz Jones Trading Amazon has grabbed the crown of biggest delivery business in the U.S., surpassing both UPS and FedEx in parcel volumes.  The Seattle e-commerce giant delivered more packages to U.S. homes in 2022 than UPS, after eclipsing FedEx in 2020, and it is on track to widen the gap this year, according to internal Amazon data and people familiar with the matter, WSJ reports.

AMZN vs. UPS Chart

4. The United States is Producing the Most Crude Oil Ever…..and We are the World’s Biggest Producer by a Long-Shot

Stat: The US is now producing more crude oil than ever—13.2 million barrels per day, per the Energy Information Administration, topping the pre-Covid peak of 13.1 million. That copious amount is nearly double the volume from a decade ago and up from the ~5 million produced when Obama entered the White House, Bloomberg’s Steven Dennis points out. The US is the world’s largest oil producer by a country mile, accounting for 21% of global oil production in 2022. Saudi Arabia is in second place, at 13%. Morningbrew

Weekly U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day) (

5. Heading into Holiday Season…XRT Retail ETF Sideways for Almost Two Years

XRT still -40% from highs

6. Russell 3000 Biggest 2023 Winners are Still in Multi-Year Downturns

Bespoke Investment Group-The problem with some of this year’s big winners is that they’re still down significantly from highs made a couple years ago.  For example, below is a list of stocks that are up more than 100% this year but still down at least 25% over the last two years.  If you managed to buy these names in early 2023, congrats.  If you bought them towards the end of 2021, however, you’re still not even close to getting back to even.

7. Coinbase Breaks to New 2023 Highs

8. Rate Hikes Have a Reduced Impact on Main Street

Barrons By Randall W. Forsyth  Adjustable Rate Debt for Individuals has been Falling Since the 1980s

9. Business Travel About to Make New Highs

Barrons-By Callum Keown

10. Why the Most Successful Leaders Don’t Care About Being Liked

Being liked is fleeting. Here’s what matters more


There’s nothing wrong with wanting to be liked at work. According to Tim Sanders, author of The Likeability Factor: How to Boost Your L-Factor and Achieve Your Life’s Dreams when your colleagues, direct reports and bosses like you, you have a better chance of getting promoted, being assigned special projects that interest you, having people go above and beyond for you, getting timely responses and feedback, and having the kind of social capital that you draw on to get what you want and need from others.

When it comes at the expense of being respected. According to scientist Cameron Anderson of the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, overall happiness in life is related to how much you are respected by those around you. Nevertheless, when we sacrifice what it takes to be respected for the quicker, and often easier, win of feeling liked, we lose out on the benefits that respect yields.

Like what? Like greater enjoyment and satisfaction with their jobs, more focus and prioritization, increased sense of meaning and significance, better health and well-being, and more feelings of trust and safety, and increased engagement.

Professionals who want (and often need) to feel liked tend to:

  • Seek positive attention and approval
  • Engage in gossip rather than giving direct feedback
  • Try to please everyone
  • Make promises they can’t keep
  • Keep strong opinions to themselves
  • Flood people with credit, compliments and praise
  • Play favorites (but pretend they don’t)
  • Use information as leverage, withholding or giving it away
  • Give people tasks they enjoy rather than assignments that stretch and challenge them
  • Focus more on how people feel (in general, and about them personally) than about achieving outcomes

Professionals who recognize the importance of being respected — with or without being liked — are more inclined to:

  • Tell the truth, even if it’s unpopular
  • Explain their thinking behind the difficult decisions they make
  • Acknowledge the elephant in the room, even if they can’t fix it
  • Say no when they need to
  • Be open-minded and decisive
  • Give credit when it’s due to others and also take it when it’s due themselves
  • Tolerate feelings of disappointment, frustration, sadness and anger in themselves and others
  • Hold people accountable for their results
  • Be consistent and fair in setting rules and expectations
  • Set and honor boundaries for themselves and others
  • Deliver negative feedback directly and in a timely manner
  • Ask for feedback regularly and then act on it
  • Apologize when they make mistakes and then move on
  • Model the behavior they expect from others

For professionals who want to grow in their roles and careers, being liked is good, but being respected is a requirement. As Margaret Thatcher once remarked, “If you just set out to be liked, you would be prepared to compromise on anything at any time, and you would achieve nothing.”