TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 16 2024

1. Negative Economic Surprises and Interest Rates

The Daily Shot Blog The United States: Negative economic surprises signal lower Treasury yields ahead.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

2. IBIT About to Pass Grayscale GBTC in AUM

From Abnormal Returns Blog

3. $1 Trillion in Government Programs Around Industrial Renaissance….AIRR ETF -First Trust

AIRR New Highs.

Top 10 Holdings -Marketwatch

4. GE Announced Split of Company in November 2021….Spin-Offs Jan 3, 2023

GE +62% Year to Date.

5. Copper Breaks to New Highs

6. Druckenmiller Bets 15% of His Portfolio on Russell 2000 Small Cap Calls….Tom Lee Pick of Year is Small Cap

Here’s what Druckenmiller did as he sold Nvidia — it’s a risky bet on an unloved asset
By Barbara Kollmeyer

The market wanted a reason to rally and got it on Wednesday after data showed slowing inflation and an economy that’s also ratcheting down.
That data combination, in theory, may make it easier for the Fed to justify an interest-rate cut, and the market hopes soonish.

But lower rates could also help another group of stocks, which have a tough run this year — small caps. And one big investor seems ready for this bunch of equities to take off. Our call of the day focuses on billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who just revealed a big bet on the Russell 2000 RUT in a newly released 13-F regulatory filing.
Through his Duquesne Family Office, Druckenmiller invested a 15% chunk of his portfolio in call options on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM in the first quarter. The filing also confirmed the firm reduced holdings in tech names Nvidia NVDA, +3.58%, which Druckenmiller discussed earlier this month, and Seagate Technology STX, +2.60%.
That Russell 2000 bet would indicate that Druckenmiller’s firm smells opportunity for struggling small caps, which investors have struggled to love or even like in recent years.

Business Insider-3 reasons an overlooked area of the stock market is poised for 50% gains this year, according to Fundstrat
Tom Lee

“Our top idea for 2024 is small-caps, where we see at least 50% upside,” Fundstrat’s head of research Tom Lee said in a note on Wednesday, noting that small caps are so disdained by the market that even a “wrong-way Charlie” can confidently bet against their success.
Lee, who nailed his 2023 stock market forecast, laid down three fundamental reasons to take a closer look at this unloved segment of the roaring US equities market.
First, Lee notes that Russell 2000 firms are poised for substantial revenue growth, outpacing the S&P 500 by a significant margin in 2025 from 2024 thanks to the Fed’s potential rate cut this year. 

“Now, you may be surprised, but small-caps actually have faster revenue growth. 6.9% versus 5.5%, that’s 140 basis points faster or nearly 25% faster growth, and that’s true in every quintile” Lee said in a video on the topic posted this week. 

Second, Lee also highlighted small-caps’ earnings growth potential, projecting 19% growth is earnings-per-share, outpacing the S&P 500’s 12% EPS growth. He said small-caps have an advantage in their lower P/E ratios compared to large-cap stocks, making them look more affordable to investors. 

Finally, the Fundstrat CEO noted that institutional investors have been dumping small caps for years, making them ripe for a turnaround trade. 
“[M]ulti-cap investors have multi-decade low allocations to small-caps even as small-caps have begun to outperform. We see this performance chasing as a key factor for small-caps to sustain gains,” he added.,confidently%20bet%20against%20their%20success.

7. Small Cap Trailing S&P Again This Year

Long-Term Weekly Chart….50week thru 200week to upside.

8. Slovakia Prime Minister Shot 5 Times

Slovakia PM Fico’s condition still ‘very serious’ after surgery
By Ayhan Uyanik and Boldizsar Gyori

Item 1 of 7 Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico looks on during a press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, Germany, January 24, 2024. REUTERS/Nadja Wohlleben/File Photo

Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico looks on during a press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, Germany, January 24, 2024. REUTERS/Nadja Wohlleben/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

  • Summary
  • Slovak PM was shot five times at close range on Wednesday
  • Hospital says his condition is ‘very serious’ but stable
  • Police charge suspect with attempted murder, says website
  • Slovakia’s president, president-elect call for calm
  • Security council, cabinet are meeting on Thursday

BANSKA BYSTRICA, Slovakia, May 16 (Reuters) – Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico was in a “very serious” but stable condition on Thursday, a hospital official said, after he was shot five times in an assassination attempt that has laid bare deep political divisions in the country.
The shooting was the first major assassination attempt on a European political leader for more than 20 years, and spurred international condemnation, with political analysts and lawmakers saying it was indicative of an increasingly febrile and polarised political climate across the continent.
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Slovak President Zuzana Caputova called for a calming of political tensions and said she would invite all parliamentary party leaders for a joint meeting. Fico ally and President-elect Peter Pellegrini urged parties to suspend or tone down their campaigning for next month’s European Parliament elections.
“If there is anything the people of Slovakia urgently need today, it is at least a basic consensus and unity among Slovaks’ political representatives,” said Pellegrini, who won an April election for the mainly ceremonial post of president.
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News website reported on Thursday that police had charged the suspect with attempted murder and that he could face life imprisonment.
Miriam Lapunikova, director of the F.D. Roosevelt University Hospital in Banska Bystrica where Fico is being treated, said the 59-year-old prime minister had undergone five hours of surgery with two teams to treat multiple gunshot wounds.
“At this point his condition is stabilised but is truly very serious, he will be in the intensive care unit,” she told reporters.
Slovakia PM Fico’s condition still ‘very serious’ after surgery | Reuters

9. Longer-Term Perspective on Crime..Violent Crime in the U.S. Since 1990s Big Dowtrend

Pew Research

10. Choose Not To Be Harmed-The Daily Stoic Blog

Choose not to be harmed — and you won’t feel harmed. Don’t feel harmed — and you haven’t been.”

This passage has been highlighted by 11,590 readers in the Kindle edition of Gregory Hays’ translation of Meditations. It’s the most popular quote in the most popular edition (we think that it’s the best edition too).

The reason it resonates is that it articulates in simple terms a timely and timeless truth that is as empowering as it is profound: it’s not events themselves that cause our suffering but how we choose to interpret them. Events are objective, our interpretations are not. They are a guess, a story, an opinion as to what’s happened and what it means, and whether or not our actions are governed by those instant interpretations is a good indicator of exactly how stoically we’re behaving.

Remember Epictetus’s famous observation that every situation has two handles—or two interpretations—and that we choose which one to grab. We decide what story to tell ourselves. We decide how we react. We decide to feel harmed or to not feel harmed. And once we make that choice–choosing not to be offended, choosing to see an opportunity to practice a virtue–then we really haven’t been harmed.

There’s a reason so many people have highlighted that passage. It’s because it’s true.