TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 01 2024

1. Earnings Surprises Highest Since 2021

Equities: In the current earnings season, EPS surprises have been the highest since 2021 (so far).

Source: Morgan Stanley Research; @carlquintanilla
The Daily Shot Brief

2. History of TSLA Drawdowns

Tesla Axes Supercharger Team-Bloomberg

3. Starbucks Trading Below $77 Pre-Market…-30% from Highs

Starbucks heading for 2022 levels….50 week will be below 200 week today

4. United Health UNH has More Revenue than Alphabet and Microsoft this Year…CEO Before Congress Today

UNH Sideways for 2 years



Congress to question if UnitedHealth is too big to fail

If you’ve ever shaken your fist and yelled at a bill from UnitedHealth, you may have more in common with members of Congress than you think.
Lawmakers in Washington are prepared to grill UnitedHealth CEO Andrew Witty in two congressional hearings today, months after a cyberattack on a subsidiary of the healthcare giant, Change Healthcare, rattled the industry and left pharmacies, doctors, and hospitals in the dark. Change processes roughly half of all Americans’ medical claims.
Congress wants Witty to clarify how UnitedHealth handled the breach of patient data. But beyond that, it wants to investigate whether the company—the nation’s largest private health insurer—has grown too big and taken on too much risk.
Healthcare with a hefty profit
However big you think UnitedHealth is, it’s bigger than that:

  • With a market cap of nearly $450 billion, it’s the fourth-largest company in the US by revenue this year, beating out Alphabet and Microsoft.
  • The company is eyeing a $24.7 billion profit in 2024.
  • One analyst estimated that more than 5% of US GDP flows through UnitedHealth’s systems daily.

That could all end soon. Throughout most of UnitedHealth’s light-speed growth and acquisition spree, it’s drawn little scrutiny from regulators. But the winds are changing: The DOJ launched an antitrust investigation into the company in February, and today’s hearings show lawmakers are digging in. According to the Washington Post:

  • Sen. Ron Wyden, chair of the Senate committee interrogating Witty today, plans to ask about the company’s practices, like prior authorization.
  • At a hearing earlier this month, Rep. Buddy Carter said the company “needs to be busted up.”

As if that wasn’t spicy enough…some lawmakers are asking the SEC to investigate suspiciously timed stock sales by UnitedHealth execs that occurred shortly before news of the antitrust investigation went public.—CC

5. Presidential Election Years and S&P Returns

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

6. U.S. vs. Europe Stocks…Pre-2009 vs. Post 2009

7. The Increase in U.S. Treasury Issuance

8. Inflation for Vehicle Repair….Add to home and car insurance inflation

Wolf Street The Consumer Price Index for motor vehicle maintenance and repair leaped in March and was up by 8.2% from a year ago, and by 37% from four years ago. CPI reflects cost increases that consumers face. For fleets, cost increases, including for collision damage repairs, were similar.

9. U.S. Spending on Home Renovations

From Irrelevant Investor Blog

10. Average Wealth for Americans Under 40

Emily Peck Axios