Topley’s Top 10 – March 29, 2021

1. Forward P/E Ratios for FAANG Vs. S&P

Netflx and Amazon only FAANG stocks exponentially above S&P index P/E

The image shows forward price-to-earnings ratios for Big Tech companies Facebook (22.8x), Alphabet (29.3x), Apple (29.5x), Microsoft (29.8x), Netflix (52.6x) and Amazon (66.3x), compared to the average for the S&P 500 (21.3x). Sources: FactSet, Standard & Poor’s. Earnings estimates for the next 12 months are as of January 31, 2021, and provided by FactSet.

Capital Group Blog https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/big-tech-big-trouble.html

2. Biotech Stocks Down -10% in 2 Days this Past Week…-25% from Highs.

XBI Biotech ETF -25% from Highs ..trades down to 200 day moving average

sc%3fs=XBI&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=t0570518769c&r=1616961536465

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www.stockcharts.com

 3. A Reminder that Stocks Go Down Like Elevator ….Viacom, Fox and Discovery

Media & Chinese Education Tech Carried Out On A Stretcher-This week we’ve seen a popular long blow up in a way that recalls the mess in GameStop (GME) earlier this year. As shown below, legacy media stocks like ViacomCBS (VIAC) and Discovery(DISCA) went parabolic since November. Fox (FOXA) also benefited, though to a much smaller degree. VIAC and DISCA both tripled in just a few months as hopes of a robust economic recovery boosting ad revenue and, more importantly, the potential for streaming riches similar to Disney (DIS) and its Disney+ platform helped fuel gains. But over the last four days, most of those gains have been incinerated. The catalyst appears to have been a secondary offering from VIAC a few days ago, with $1.7bn of shares sold into the $50bn market cap that existed at the time.

Since that secondary, the stock has been more than cut in half. There have also been rumors of a big, leveraged position by an unnamed fund having its portfolio seized and liquidated by its prime brokers. There have also been huge blocks of stock reported at dealers, with Goldman Sachs(GS) reportedly getting tapped to sell a block equivalent to more than 6% of VIAC’s free float and a second block equivalent to more than 12% of DISCA’s free float. In a reversal of the GME mess, VIAC has 18.5% of its float sold short, while DISCA’s short base is 29.7% of float. This particular blow-up is a win for shorts.  Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access all of our analysis and market commentary.


Another similar collapse has been playing out in Chinese education technology stocks listed in the US as ADRs. GSX Techedu (GSX) is down over 50% today, with a block offered by a dealer equivalent to almost 9% of the float. A similarly-sized block relative to float is also reportedly on offer in IQ. These names haven’t seen the same sort of parabolic gains as the media stocks above, but they’re a similar clustered theme that’s getting carried out to end the week.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/media-chinese-education-tech-carried-out-on-a-stretcher

4. 77% Of Americans Are Worried About Soaring Inflation 

BY TYLER DURDEN–ZEROHEDGE

SATURDAY, MAR 27, 2021 – 10:00 PM

Americans are becoming more worried about inflation than ever following the Federal Reserve and the federal government’s unprecedented response to the virus pandemic downturn by plowing trillions of dollars into the economy. As a result, prices of financial assets and items in the real economy have soared over the last year which a new survey reveals three-quarters of consumers are concerned about inflation. 

With the Federal Reserve turning a blind eye to rapid price increases, consumers are finding it unavoidable to avoid higher prices at the gas pump or supermarket. A CivicScience survey of more than 2,600 respondents found that 77% were somewhat concerned about inflation.

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/77-americans-are-worried-about-soaring-inflation

5. DBC-Invesco Commodity Index is 60% Below 2008 Levels

Commodities have rallied but here is longer term chart showing how far we are from highs

www.stockcharts.com

6.GDP Change for 2020…China the Only Major Country Positive.

Matthews Asia

7. Fed’s Balance Sheet 2002-2021..Post-Internet Bubble, 9/11, 2008 Crisis and Covid.

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1375186497654169601/photo/1

 8. After the 08/09 crisis, it took nearly a decade to get unemployment to low levels. Post-pandemic, jobs are returning at a record pace.

Peter Mallouk , @PeterMallouk

Image

9. Americans Made an Additional $1.1 Trillion Last Year on Stimulus..Total Personal Income Rose 6.1%

Alex Tanzi  15 hrs ago

(Bloomberg) — Americans earned an additional $1.1 trillion last year — the most ever in data dating back to 1930 — thanks entirely to stimulus checks and other government aid.

Total U.S. personal income rose 6.1% last year to $19.7 trillion as a surge in pandemic-era aid outpaced gains in wages, property values and other sources of wealth, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The dollar amount of so-called transfer receipts, which include Covid relief payments, steered income growth in 26 states while increases in other types of personal income led in 25 including the District of Columbia, the preliminary estimates show.

map: Income vs Transfers© Bloomberg Income vs Transfers

The report illustrates how important government relief programs have been in helping to shore up Americans’ finances as the world’s largest economy recovers from the pandemic. On top of stimulus checks, an additional $498 billion was doled out in state unemployment benefits last year, according to the data.

Personal income growth ranged from 8.4% in Arizona and Montana to 2.4% in Wyoming. Gains were strongest in the West.

map: 2020 Wages© Bloomberg 2020 Wages

For the nation, wages increased 0.3% in 2020, the smallest gain since 2009. Northeastern and Midwestern states that have experienced industrial declines saw the sharpest declines in wages last year.

In the final three months of 2020, after the expiration of some government aid, incomes decreased 6.8% at an annual rate after decreasing 11.3% in the third quarter. Coastal states suffered the most.

The new data, published Wednesday, also provides a look at how the pandemic affected state economies by industry. For example, New York’s arts, entertainment, and recreation sector suffered a $7.8 billion loss while accommodations and food services declined by $10.1 billion.

(Updates with fourth quarter data)

For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-personal-income-growth-highest-ever-last-year-on-stimulus/ar-BB1eX9yN

10. 8 Things Killing Your Productivity

By Nathan Chai | October 24, 2016 | 

There are eight significant factors that hold us back from getting positive results, but there are ways to improve on these factors, to unlock your potential and become an unstoppable force in whatever you’re trying to achieve.

What influences productivity?

There are factors that contribute to a loss or gain of productivity:

Related: 6 Quick Tips for an Insanely Productive Day

Here are some techniques to help you increase your output while maintaining a high standard:

Related: The Daily Habits of the Most Productive People

1. Criticism

Criticism is an essential aspect of increasing your productivity. A great rule is one my mum used to tell me: “For every mean thing you say, say 10 nice things.”

Oddly enough, this holds true when motivating your team. When you structure criticism, lead with several things you feel they’re doing well, then tell them one or two things you feel they can improve upon.

Present the feedback in a constructive way. For example, you could say, “I feel that this could be improved” or “I think you may find it more effective to do it like this. What are your thoughts?” Notice the emphasis on “I”—don’t accuse your team of doing things that aren’t to your standard. Similarly, by asking them how they’d improve it, you create a dialogue to ensure they don’t feel like they’re being scolded.

Regularly ask your team what they feel you do well and what you can improve upon. Being a leader doesn’t mean you’re perfect; it just means you make the decisions.

2. Stress

Stress is brutal on people’s psyche. Interestingly enough, our brains have yet to evolve to realize that coming face to face with a saber-toothed tiger is not the same as completing a piece of work on time. But the brain treats both situations as the same.

This means that a stressed individual’s brain reverts back to its primitive functions of survival and short-term gains. He or she will, therefore, make less future-orientated decisions and be unable to access higher brain functions, such as creativity, innovation and advanced language.

What this leads to is a lack of effective communication and an inability to critically analyze their own work. A good example of this was when my friend was constantly working overtime to complete a data interpretation tool. He would code the program late into the night for weeks. One weekend, he had had enough and decided to relax. The following Monday, he went into the office, looked at his code and thought this is terrible and rewrote it in a matter of hours.

It was only after my friend’s stress levels had decreased that he could see the issues and problems with the project.

The key thing to realize about stress is that it’s triggered when people feel a lack of control. To mitigate this in others and yourself, frequently show your team their impact on the company and place an emphasis on creating a solid work-life balance. For example, create a “no emails after 6 p.m.” rule, plan monthly work happy hours or organize frequent out-of-work activities.

3. Energy

Energy plays a huge role in productivity. You needn’t be as radical as enforcing a company-wide nap time. A better idea is to ensure you and your team have access to healthy snacks.

By “healthy” snacks, we’re talking about food that that hasn’t been overly processed. Fruit and whole grains are fantastic because they take longer for the body to break down, providing a consistent energy release.

Exercise also has been shown to increase both concentration and energy levels. It’s unlikely your team would abuse a “go for a 30-minute stroll if you feel sleepy” policy, as it’s a perk few businesses offer.

Energy levels will ebb and flow as the day goes on (lunchtime graveyard anyone?). Use this to your advantage by getting your team to do tasks that require a lot of mental energy in the morning. Then as 1 p.m. hits, ask them to do less demanding, more enjoyable tasks.

4. Technology

Having a slow computer kills productivity in ways that a lot of people don’t even realize. Obviously there’s the cost of being unable to work while programs open, internet pages load and data transfers.

But there’s also the hidden mental cost of getting distracted by things while you wait for something to open, load or transfer. What do you do when you’re waiting? Scroll mindlessly through your phone. Your brain is no longer on task and must constantly be reminded what to do.

Build an upgrade schedule and include it in your budget. If you predict that you’ll need a new laptop in three years, set aside money each month now so it won’t be a surprise expense down the road.

Also make sure your “business technology” is up to date. Consider things such as marketing avenues, trends the industry is facing and how your competitors are operating. Regularly evaluate and update your business processes.

But don’t update them too much because this can destroy your business’s cohesion—annually is fine. This is far easier to implement with a small business because everyone can have a say in what they think works and what doesn’t. However, remember that your role is to make the decisions, so listen to your team but don’t let them determine how your business is run.

Related: 5 ‘Do Not Disturb’ Tips for Avoiding Tech Distractions

5. Purpose

Feeling like your actions have no impact can completely sap motivation and productivity. You need to ensure every member of your team knows why they do what they do and have metrics to measure themselves against.

This also relates back to the criticism section; in a small business, take time every week to tell each team member one good thing they did for the business. This will reinforce their sense of purpose because they can see the tangible benefits of the 40 hours they’ve given to you that week.

Encourage everyone to set their own goals with a number and a time limit. Tweak their goals if you feel they aren’t reaching their full potential. Goal setting gives them a target to aim for and will keep them committed to doing that amount of work in the allotted time frame.

At a more personal level, think about what you’re trying to do with your life. Spend some time reflecting on what you want and how you’re going to get it. Constantly remind yourself by writing your major goals on pieces of paper and post them in places you will see all the time.

6. Attitude

Attitude is one of the things you can’t directly change about someone—and there are constructive attitudes (good) and destructive attitudes (bad).

Realistically, the only thing you can do with people who have a destructive attitude is get rid of them. Consistently talking about why they can’t do something or why the business can’t do something is like a productivity-sapping virus that quickly spreads.

When someone says something that appears destructive, question them about it. If they can back up their statement with solid reasons, listen to them, thank them and ask what they’d do instead.

One of the ways you can influence attitude is to lead by example; treat people the way you want them to treat you. Try to do things with your team in a non-work setting; get to know them and allow them to get to know you. You’re a team after all; act like it.

The best way to create a healthy attitude in yourself is to continually learn new things. When you’re learning new things on a regular basis, you realize how little you actually know. This keeps you humble and open to new ideas and suggestions.

7. Personal Bias

There is huge variance when it comes to things such as:

  • Attention span
  • What stirs emotion inside us
  • Things we care about
  • Energy cycle
  • Personality

Some people work better at night and some work better in the mornings. Some of us can concentrate for a long time and others can’t. You’re only question should be “Are they performing their role well?”

If you want to get your team to be the most productive, let them decide how they work. Use their goals as a metric. If they fail to reach their goal, step in and advise them on how to improve.

Get to know people. What makes them tick? Offering a financial bonus to one team member might make them work harder, but fall flat on another. That other team member might value a paid vacation more.

Again, it’s important to figure this stuff out about yourself, too. Once you know what incentives you prefer, when your energy ebbs and how long you can concentrate for, you can start mitigating any deficits in yourself and working to your strengths.

8. Distractions

The bane of any productive person is being interrupted when they are in the middle of doing something. A phone call, a conversation, an email marked “urgent.” But the nature of running a business means you can’t stop any of this from happening.

With that said, don’t pressure your team to respond to things immediately. If you need something that minute, you should’ve asked for it yesterday. Similarly, if you really, really need it, go and talk to them about it in person.

Try giving your team “quiet time” for an hour where they aren’t obligated to answer the phone or talk to anyone. Rotate the privilege around your team.

Have everyone spend 10 minutes making a to-do list for the day. This helps prevent the mind burps that happen when a task is finished and the brain instinctively types “Facebook” into the address bar. Instead you can reference your list and stay on track.

Environment is vitally important to maintain focus, and by proxy, productivity.

Increasing your and your team’s productivity is all about figuring out how people work. There isn’t a one-size-fits-all approach to becoming more productive. Seek to understand your own processes and document how you went about it. Share that discovery process with your team and encourage them to go through the same process.

Here are some questions to help you get started:

  • What is the best way someone can tell you to do something better?
  • What are your three favorite ways of relaxing?
  • Which non-work activities perk you up and help you feel awake?
  • What is the single biggest technological time suck?
  • Other than financial gain, why do you do what you do?
  • How can you improve the lives of the people around you?
  • What factors help you work best?

https://www.success.com/8-things-killing-your-productivity/

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