Regarding Ukraine Situation
Malcolm Gladwell David vs Goliath Stat- “1/3 of wars in history won by the smaller weaker force. Guerrilla or unconventional forces win 63% of time”
Both won several world heavyweight boxing championships, known for smooth footwork and fierce jabs. One never faced a knockdown in the ring. The other was undefeated for a decade.
Now, after Hall of Fame boxing careers, Vitali Klitschko and Wladimir Klitschko are again on the world stage, united in Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s invasion.
Former Miss Ukraine Joins Fight Against Russia
https://www.ndtv.com/offbeat/former-miss-ukraine-anastasia-lenna-joins-fight-against-russia-2794430
1. Markets Rally on the Invasion
Irrelevant Investor-Michael Batnick
https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/02/23/animal-spirits-the-craziest-housing-market-ever/
2. Stock Market History Post 10-15% Corrections.
https://i0.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/2.24.22-Blog-Chart-4.png?ssl=1
3. Summary of Russian Produced Commodities
The chart-Here’s a refresher chart from Goldman on the commodities that Russia produces:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-are-the-most-important-s-p-500-and-nasdaq-levels-to-watch-right-now-says-this-strategist-11646049790?mod=home-page
4. Russian Market Holds Covid Lows…..Ukraine Biggest Trading Partner in European Union and China More Dependent on Ukraine than Russia.
NY Times Friedman–Then think about this: Thanks to rapid globalization, the E.U. is already Ukraine’s biggest trading partner — not Russia. In 2012, Russia was the destination for 25.7 percent of Ukrainian exports, compared with 24.9 percent going to the E.U. Just six years later, after Russia’s brutal seizure of Crimea and support of separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine and Ukraine’s forging of closer ties with the E.U. economically and politically, “Russia’s share of Ukrainian exports had fallen to only 7.7 percent, while the E.U.’s share shot up to 42.6 percent,” according to a recent analysis published by Bruegel.org.
But Xi is nobody’s fool. Here are a couple of other interesting facts from the wired world: First, China’s economy is more dependent on Ukraine than Russia’s. According to Reuters, “China leapfrogged Russia to become Ukraine’s biggest single trading partner in 2019, with overall trade totaling $18.98 billion last year, a nearly 80 percent jump from 2013. … China became the largest importer of Ukrainian barley in the 2020-21 marketing year,” and about 30 percent of all of China’s corn imports last year came from farms in Ukraine.
Second, China overtook the United States as the European Union’s biggest trading partner in 2020, and Beijing cannot afford for the E.U. to be embroiled in conflict with an increasingly aggressive Russia and unstable Putin. China’s stability depends — and the legitimacy of the ruling Communist Party rests — on Xi’s ability to sustain and grow his already massive middle class. And that depends on a stable and growing world economy.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/
Russian Stock Market ETF-RSX ….Holds Covid Lows for Now
5. Russia Invasion of Ukraine May Have Changed Military Spending for a Long Time
Jim Reid Deutsche Bank
As I mentioned in my EMR this morning, it seems the geopolitical tectonic plates shifted this weekend. Perhaps the most significant was German Chancellor Scholz’s announcement that from 2024 Germany will spend at least 2% of GDP on defence each year. The first CoTD shows that their average between 2011-2020 was 1.2%. While the amounts here aren’t game changers, the turn in sentiment towards defence is and its one likely to be followed by other countries as they face up to the new world order.
The second chart shows a time series of this for a smaller selection of countries. Defence spending has fallen consistently in the post-WWII world and over the last 20 years has been comfortably below 2% for many countries.
Interestingly, as recently as the mid-1980s, the UK spent roughly the same on defence, education and health. For perspective this year they are expected to spend £60bn on defence, £124bn on education and £230bn on health.
So while we are unlikely to see a return to defence spending levels seen in the past, the last week’s events are likely to mark a turning point.
6. Russia Ruble a Non-Factor in Global Currencies
7. New York City Prime Properties Held by Russian Oligarchs
Mark Elliott
@markmobility
https://twitter.com/markmobility
8. Value Performance Over Growth Highest in a Decade.
The Daily Shot Blog Equities: It’s been over a decade since we saw this level of growth factor underperformance vs. value (over a 3-month period).
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://dailyshotbrief.com/
9. The U.S. Needs 1.55m Homes Per Year for Next 10 Years
John Burns Real Estate -Chris Porter updated the 10 year housing demand calc we did in our book 6 years ago.
We need to average 1.55 mil homes /year over 10 years, up from 1.37 mil in the oversupply situation in 2016.
1.7 million undersupply is at normal affordability, which is not the case today.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/
10. If You Want to Fix Burnout, You First Have to Understand Its 6 Main Causes
Fixing burnout is way more complicated than just longer vacations and taking up yoga.
BY JESSICA STILLMAN, CONTRIBUTOR, INC.COM@ENTRYLEVELREBEL
It will probably come as no surprise to you that every time pollsters ask people how they’re feeling about work at the moment, they hear the same thing. People are really, really burnt out. In response to one recent survey by HR tech company Workhuman, 41 percent of respondents claimed to have burnt out in just the last few months. Another survey by The Hartford found an overall burnout rate of 61 percent. I could go on (and on and on).
But while the fact that a huge number of workers are feeling burnt out after nearly two years of pandemic mayhem may be glaringly obvious, the exact reasons why so many are suffering are much less well understood, according to Jennifer Moss, the author of a new book entitled The Burnout Epidemic.
Employers often think battling burnout is just about offering more vacation time or more generous perks. But Moss insists in the book that “burnout is a complex constellation of poor workplace practices and policies, antiquated institutional legacies, roles and personalities at higher risk, and system, societal issues that have been unchanged, plaguing us for too long.”
In short, burnout is complicated. And if you want to effectively address the problem, you have to take a long, hard look at the underlying issues driving it. A recent Greater Good Science Center article covering Moss’s book helpfully laid out six of the biggest problems.
1. Excessive workload
No shock here. Overwork is a huge contributor to burnout, and WHO data shows excessively long hours lead to more than half a million deaths a year. Fixing the problem is mostly in the hands of employers, according to Moss, who suggests companies “identify low-priority goals for their employees” so they can better manage their workloads, “provide more support when needs change suddenly,” and consider implementing a four-day workweek, among other measures.
2. Perceived lack of control
“Studies show that autonomy at work is important for well-being, and being micromanaged is particularly de-motivating to employees. Yet many employers fall back on watching their employees’ every move, controlling their work schedule, or punishing them for missteps,” notes Greater Good. Offering employees more choice over where, when, and how to work can be an incredibly effective way to battle burnout if you suspect a lack of autonomy is a contributing factor.
3. Lack of recognition
This isn’t just about paying people what they’re worth, though that’s essential if you want to avoid burning out your people, but also about ensuring that employees know their contributions are seen and valued. Rather than stir envy and unhealthy competition by handing out rewards to only top contributors, Moss suggests “gratitude from top leadership and peer-to-peer gratitude.”
4. Poor relationships
Knowing and liking your colleagues as whole, real people is a strong predictor of happiness at work, while a lack of social connection at work is a predictor for burnout. That’s why Moss recommends employers “give people spaces where they can connect with colleagues around non-work-related topics,” as well as “encouraging volunteerism and building more inclusive cultures.”
5. Lack of fairness
Again, it’s no shock that feeling unfairly treated really ticks people off and saps their motivation for work. Bosses will never be able to eliminate every perceived slight and grievance, but they can provide mechanisms to report and resolve these issues. Being ruthless about rooting out bias and discrimination is, of course, also essential.
6. Values mismatch
As Harvard professor Arthur Brooks has pointed out, the best job for you is the job that matches your values. The opposite is also true. The jobs that are most likely to cause burnout are the ones where we feel in conflict with our deepest commitments. Depending on the particulars of the situation, fixing this issue can involve either hiring people whose values better align with the company’s mission or having the company actually stand up for the values it says it believes in. (Or from the employee’s perspective, thinking about how to ditch your ethically dubious employer.)
Every case of burnout is unique, with its own collection of causes both personal and professional. But Moss’s list of common contributing factors is a starting point for both bosses and employees to ponder the real roots of feelings of exhaustion, so they can battle back against the current burnout epidemic.
OCT 12, 2021
The opinions expressed here by Inc.com columnists are their own, not those of Inc.com.
https://www.inc.com/jessica-