1-2. AI vs. the Web
I wrote about AI boom not being a 1999 moment in my quarterly letter, Bespoke comments below.
Bespoke Investment Group In our premium research over the last few months, we’ve done a lot of analysis comparing the launch of ChatGPT and the AI Boom that has ensued with other major technological advances over the last few decades. One of the most correlated periods to now in terms of the Nasdaq 100’s performance was the launch of the modern web browser (Netscape) back in late 1994. Just as ChatGPT brought AI to the masses, the Netscape browser made the internet easily accessible.As shown in the chart below that was included in our latest Bespoke Report newsletter, if we tie the release of ChatGPT in November 2022 to the release of the Netscape web browser in December 1994, the Nasdaq 100 is up about the same amount, and we would currently be around August 1996 on a time scale.
What’s interesting about August 1996 is that we’d be about four months away from Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s famous “Irrational Exuberance” comments that were meant to highlight some of the frothiness that he was seeing in markets at the time.
Those comments by Alan Greenspan turned out to be correct (eventually), but if we expand the chart above out ten years, they were about three years early! As shown below, the Nasdaq would go on to experience a massive bubble for years after Greenspan’s first mention of “irrational exuberance” in late 1996.There are plenty of investors saying the same thing and worse about Tech/AI stocks right now, but keep in mind that we’ve yet to see a pick-up on the M&A and IPO fronts that usually accompany bubbles. Some of that can be tied back to the fact that companies that may have gone public 25 years ago are often getting acquired before they go public, but overall, the AI Boom, while certainly hot, still seems far more subdued than what we saw during peak Internet boom back in the late 1990s.
Of course, every boom/bust cycle is different, and the chart below is not to suggest that the Nasdaq will continue following the path it took back in the 1990s. We just thought it was helpful to see the two periods side by side when comparing the launch of ChatGPT to the launch of the Netscape web browser.As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results!We have a lot more interesting analysis like this in our newest Bespoke Report. If you’d like to read it, simply start a trial to one of our three membership levels.
https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/ai-vs-the-web
3. Regional Bank ETF KRE
KRE-42% off lows….back to 2022 levels.
4. US vs. Euro Stocks
From Callum Thomas @Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)
5. Another Look at the Diverging Paths of India and China
The business cycles in China and India are decoupling after having grown in sync for decades, see chart below.
Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management
6. Truflation Hits 1.6%…Good Sign for Fed
7. Copper Sell-Off Helping Lower Inflation
Copper Sell-Off Helping Lower Inflation
8. Europe Mega Cap 50 Failed to Make New Highs
9. Annual Hours Worked by Country
10. Americans Opinion on Government Departments
