1. Last Week’s One-Day Small Cap Move was 6 Standard Deviation Event
2. One of the Issues for Small Cap is Shrinking Pool of Names….More Mutual Funds than Stocks
WSJ By Spencer Jakab
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/where-have-all-the-good-stocks-gone-8e8fbb79?mod=itp_wsj
3. Alphabet Acquisition of WIZ is 2X any Prior Deals
4. Annualized S&P Gains Based on CPI Inflation Numbers
Schwab
5. Weekly Crypto Asset Flows
From DC Lite Substack Crypto asset flows. Bitcoin saw the 5th largest weekly inflows ever (+$1.35bn). YTD inflows to crypto assets total a record $17.8bn.
6. Sales of Homes in Manhattan All Cash
NYT By Ronda Kaysen and Ella Koeze
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/06/upshot/manhattan-real-estate-cash.html
7. Mortgage Applications Update
The United States: Mortgage applications remained at multi-year lows last week.
Source: The Daily Shot https://dailyshotbrief.com/
8. U.S. States with Shrinking Populations
From ZeroHedge blog www.zerohedge.com
9. Young People Are Flocking to the Republican Party
By Darragh Roche
Young people appear to be flocking to the Republican Party, according to the figures in a new poll from the Pew Research Center that surveyed Americans’ party affiliation.
The National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS) published by Pew Research on Tuesday has drawn significant attention from analysts because it shows the GOP leading among those under 30.
There are just four months until the presidential election where former President Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, is hoping to defeat President Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump gestures to the crowd before delivering the keynote address at the Faith & Freedom Coalition’s Road to Majority Policy Conference at the Washington Hilton on June 22, 2024 in Washington,… More SAMUEL CORUM/GETTY IMAGES
The NPORS found that, among all respondents, 47 percent said they were Republican or leaned Republican, while 46 percent said they were Democrats or leaned toward the Democrats.
The poll was conducted from February 1 to June 10 among 5,626 U.S. adults.st
Analyts were quick to point to the detailed figures regarding party affiliation among young people.
“By subgroup, the headline is age,” The New York Times’ chief political analyst Nate Cohn wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
“NPORS found the GOP ahead on leaned party ID among 18 to 29 year olds, even though the sample was Biden+20 on 2020 recall vote. The sample size is fairly large (n=496) and it hasn’t shown anything like this in previous cycles,” Cohn added.
In an earlier post, Cohn said: “NPORS found leaned party identification at R+1. That’s the first time NPORS gives the GOP a party ID edge. Last year, it was D+2.
That’s significant in its own right, given the quality of the survey. But it will effect other polls — like that Ipsos poll that recently showed Trump/Biden tied.”
Newsweek has reached out to the Republican National Committee (RNC) for comment.
Matt Blackwell, a political scientist at Harvard who researches statistical methodology and U.S. politics, also drew attention to the figures for young people who are registered voters.
“Uhhhhh…. one odd tidbit from the Pew NPORS: respondents under 26 that are registered to vote are almost R +30,” Blackwell wrote on X. He shared a screenshot of the polling showing that the GOP led with 63.8 percent to Democrats’ 34.3 percent among registered voters under 26.
Blackwell added in a subsequent post: “Sorry, was dropping non-responses to the gender question with those back in it’s only R +26.”
He shared a screenshot of figures showing Republicans on 62.2 percent support compared to 36 percent for the Democrats.
Sharing the unweighted numbers from the poll, Blackwell said: “Maybe just sampling noise? MoE [margin of error] for each one is ±8 or so.”
“To match @Nate_Cohn’s age bracket of 18-29, here’s the breakdown for them. R +7 among the registered voters,” Blackwell wrote in another X post.
G. Elliott Morris, editorial director of data analytics at ABC News and FiveThirtyEight, wrote on X the results could be caused by “sample noise” but added that there are other explanations.
Morris said that one of the possibilities was that “we’re seeing a historic realignment among young voters, to the point where they are as GOP as the silent gen and white evangelical Christians.”
Morris added another possibility: “Selection into taking a poll is correlated with some unmeasured very political variable that’s throwing off most to all polls right now, even literally the best in the industry, and will cause havoc on Election Day (on the level of 2020, 2016, 1980, 1960, 1952, 1948).”
Young People Are Flocking to the Republican Party – Newsweek
10. 2,500 Years Ago, the Ancient Greeks Believed Every Great Speech Must Contain 3 Elements. It’s Still True Today
The ancient Greeks’ approach to public speaking has withstood the test of time and is still the secret of persuasion today.
EXPERT OPINION BY JESSICA STILLMAN, CONTRIBUTOR, INC.COM @ENTRYLEVELREBEL
If you’re looking for advice on how to become a great public speaker, there are plenty of people you can go to. Speaking coaches, VCs, Hollywood directors, jazz musicians, and MIT professors have all offered worthy tips and suggestions.
But perhaps the most compelling advice of all comes from the most unlikely source — ancient Greek philosophers. Before you groan and click away, hear me out.
Much has changed in the 2,500 or so years since Aristotle and Plato were walking around an agora discussing their ideas. Our lifestyles, tech, and understanding of the world are wildly different. But human beings themselves haven’t changed much.
Evolution is slow. Our brains are basically wired the same way then as now. And what worked in ancient Athens — before speakers had the advantage of fancy slides and eye-catching graphics — will almost certainly work now. Plus, these ideas have withstood millennia. They must be pretty worthwhile.
You could, of course, take whole college courses on what the Greeks had to say about what they called rhetoric and what most modern entrepreneurs would call delivering a great speech or presentation. But for time-pressed professionals, let’s start with the fundamentals. Ancient Greek thinkers taught that every convincing speech should contain three essential elements.
1. Ethos
Ethos is the ancient Greek word for character. Aristotle taught that speakers must establish their ethos — their character, credibility, or authority to speak on a subject — for their words to persuade anyone. Without this essential first ingredient, even the most clever and well-worded arguments will fall flat.
“Your audience needs to know (or to believe, which in rhetoric adds up to the same thing) that you are trustworthy, that you have a locus standi to talk on the subject, and that you speak in good faith. You need your audience to believe that you are, in the well-known words, ‘A pretty straight kind of guy,’ ” journalist Sam Leith explained in his book on great rhetoric through the ages, Words Like Loaded Pistols.
How do you establish this good standing with the audience? “No one likes a bragger or a name-dropper. But underselling yourself can be just as damaging to your chances of making an impact with your presentation,” warns Big Think’s Kris Flegg. “Often, the right balance can be struck with case studies and examples.”
You might mention people or companies you’ve worked with to use social proof to establish your credentials. Academics might mention their university or affiliations. Hard numbers help too. “It’s much easier to tell an audience that you’ve been coaching for 15 years than it is to tell them that you’re the best coach around,” Flegg points out.
The idea isn’t to toot your horn to enjoy the sweet sound of self-praise. It’s to foster your audience’s basic trust that you have the knowledge and character to talk about whatever it is you’re going to talk about.
2. Logos
OK, now your audience trusts you. What are you going to tell them? Logos is the content of your speech — the actual ideas you’re trying to get across and the way you link them together. And when it came to how to do this, Aristotle agreed with contemporary writing teachers: “Show, don’t tell.”
“Aristotle had a tip here: He found that the most effective use of logos is to encourage your audience to reach the conclusion to your argument on their own, just moments before your big reveal. They will relish in the fact that they were clever enough to figure it out, and the reveal will be that much more satisfying,” explains the Farnam Street blog.
By using evidence, anecdotes, and solid logic to lead your audience to the conclusions you want them to draw, you enlist them in your speech. That’s both more entertaining and more persuasive than just flat out telling them what they should think.
3. Pathos
So far, so logical. But as you may have observed, humans are not 100 percent logical creatures. Far from it. So according to Aristotle and other ancient Greek thinkers, a truly great speech must not just have a credible speaker making logically sound arguments. It must also have pathos, or emotion.
Offering statistics about your topic is one thing. Sharing a moving story about how your product or idea impacted an individual is an appeal to pathos. So is invoking the audience’s feelings of empathy, anger, frustration, or even patriotism or duty. You might even display a little well-timed emotion yourself.
The idea is to make your audience feel, not just think. But you don’t want to overdo it.
“In order to work, pathos needs to be used sparingly, where it has the strongest impact, and in a way that feels natural. If forced, pathos can have the opposite effect, making people distance themselves to avoid the awkwardness of your emotional outpouring,” warns neuroscientist and Ness Labs founder Anne-Laure Le Cunff in her own deep-dive post on the ancient Greek approach to persuasion.
Put these three elements together, and you had a recipe for true persuasion 2,500 years ago — and you have the recipe for it now.