TOPLEY’S TOP 10 January 21, 2025

1. The Dollar is +10% Since September Lows…Going Up with Fed Cutting Rates

StockCharts


2. Unleaded Gasoline Prices Up 8.8% in Last Month

StockCharts


3. Transports Index Down -12% in Correction from December 2024

Holding Right on 200-Day.

StockCharts


4. 3rd Year of Bull Market Historical Returns Muted

Callum Thomas:  And as I’ve previously highlighted, the 3rd year of the bull market (which we are now in) tends to be troublesome. This excellent chart maps out the average path of bull markets during the 3rd year. I suspect there’s probably a bit of variation around it, but it does go to show that we’re likely in for a fair amount of range-trading and volatility this year. So embrace the chop?

Todd Sohn


5. Small Cap Holding 200-Day

Via Barrons: The iShares Russell 2000 exchange-traded fund (ticker: IWM), at $217, has held strong above its 200-day moving average of $214.  It has remained above the 200-day moving average for 280 consecutive days, the longest stretch since late 2018, according to Dow Jones Market Data. When it has such a stretch, or a longer one, it has gone on to see a gain most of the time over the following 12 months of as much as 19%.

StockCharts


6. Nasdaq 100 QQQ-Second Longest Streak Ever Over 200 Day

Charlie Bello


7. Netflix Chart Closes Below 50-Day

Netflix straight up since August…It has first close below 50-day.

StockCharts.com


8. Netflix straight up since August…It has first close below 50-day.

Barron’s


9. Wine Sales -6% from 2023

Via NBC News: The losses keep stacking up for the U.S. wine industry.  Wine sales in the U.S. last year tumbled approximately 6% from 2023, according to data from the industry data group SipSource. The drop is the latest in a long-term decline in wine demand in restaurants, bars and stores that some are calling an “existential threat” to the industry.

NBC News


10. Open AI 15 Page Manifesto to America

From Sherwood: Framed as a plan for ensuring American superiority in AI, the document warns that overregulation will drive hundreds of billions of dollars to Chinese AI projects.

OpenAI just published a 15-page manifesto titled “AI in America: Open AI’s Economic Blueprint.” But if you read between the lines, the blueprint boils down to a wish list of things that OpenAI wants from the US government:

  • 🚦 Voluntary “rules of the road” instead of federal regulation
  • ⚖️ Exclusion from the patchwork of state AI regulations
  • 🪖 Classified national-security briefings
  • 🚔 Defense, national-security, and law-enforcement contracts
  • 🎟️ Exclusion from any AI regulations if the companies work on national-security applications
  • 📊 Mountains of digitized government data to train its AI on
  • 🍎 Public-school technology-budget dollars
  • 🏛️ State-government-agency contracts
  • 🎓 State-university research dollars
  • 🧪 Federal science-research dollars
  • ©️ Freedom from copyright restrictions
  • ☢️ Fast-track permitting process for nuclear reactors and other energy generation
  • ⚡️ Energy updates and energy infrastructure for powering data centers (including fusion, championed by Sam Altman’s startup, Helion)
  • 🏭 Domestic chip manufacturing