TOPLEY’S TOP 10 – Feb 16, 2024

1. Tech 2024 vs. 2000 Internet Bubble

Zach Goldberg Jefferies Will rational optimism turns into irrational exuberance? Applying the peak of the TMT bubble maths to the Nasdaq-100, the S&P 500 would have to reach 6250 to price-in the same level of irrational exuberance, according to the excellent cross-asset team at Soc Gen.

  1. At the peak of the TMT bubble, the Tech sector traded at 2x its profit share in the S&P 500. Today it is at 1.25x of profits.
  2. SPX was at a 25x fwd P/E; today we are 20xfwd P/E.
  3. Applying the peak of the TMT bubble maths to the Nasdaq-100, the S&P 500 would have to reach 6250 to price-in the same level of irrational exuberance.

2. Lower AI Mentions on Earnings Calls

Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, Partner

3. Zuck vs. AAPL ….Apple Lags Again vs. QQQ Yesterday

Morningbrew Letter

The billionaire grand dork of the metaverse, Mark Zuckerberg, took a digital dump on Apple’s new wearable technology yesterday in a three-minute Instagram reel about Meta’s Quest 3 headset that may as well have been captioned “she is very gorgeous to me!”

“I don’t just think that Quest is the better value, I think Quest is the better product, period,” the Meta CEO said in the video, which was recorded on a Quest 3 by a guy sitting across from him. Zuck telling the internet he believes Quest 3 out-headsets Vision Pro is about as much of a shocker as Zuck having a home bunker for gaming.

What’s more surprising is…that he shouted it from the rooftops on his personal Instagram account. Zuck’s decision to plop down on a couch and Apple Hands™ his way through a Quest 3 demo likely reflects Meta and Apple’s heated race to create the one true mixed-reality headset.

Looking to build on Meta’s head start in the VR/AR space, here’s what Zuck emphasized in his get-ready-with-me video review of Quest 3 vs. Vision Pro:

  • Quest can also do the mixed-reality-floating-screens thing that Apple calls “spatial computing,” except Meta’s goggles start at $500, compared to $3,500 for Vision Pro.
  • Quest doesn’t have a wired battery pack and is still about a bar of soap lighter than the Vision Pro, which some have criticized for causing headaches and neck pain.

Zuck gave a shout-out to the Apple “fanboys” who “get upset whenever anyone dares to question if Apple’s going to be the leader in a new category,” but he admitted that the Vision Pro’s screen resolution is superior and that the eye-tracking function is “really nice.”

It’s still anybody’s game. Meta started selling AR/VR headsets after it acquired Oculus in 2014. While its work has been overshadowed by the hype surrounding the Vision Pro lately, reviews of the new Apple product do not indicate an iPhone moment yet, and people have even started returning the headsets.—ML

4. Airline ETF …50day thru 200day to Upside in Feb

5. Long-Term Treasury ETF …Another Failed Rally?

6. Ackman “Betting on Zero” Again

Betting on Zero 2016 Documentary Trailer…Ackman Bet $1B Short Against Herbalife.

2024 Herbalife Cut in Half

7. XLF Financials ETF Making Run at Previous Highs

8. What Retail Sales Miss?  RTH Retail ETF Up on Day Yesterday….New All-Time Highs in 2024

9. Most Valuable Brands 2024 …5 of Mag 7 on List

Charlie Munger added brand value to Berkshire value thought process years ago

10. Most Americans say elected officials should avoid heated or aggressive speech-Pew Research