1. No Idea What Happens Going Forward but this is 29th 5% Correction Since 2009 Low
S&P 500 pullback. “The S&P 500 is down 5.6% from its peak on July 16, the 2nd pullback of the year. This is the 29th correction >5% off of a high since the March 2009 low. They all seemed like the end of the world at the time.”
2. Earnings Season Volatility
Earnings season volatility. “If it’s felt like a volatile earnings season, that’s because it is. In fact, this has been the most volatile earnings season since the financial crisis.”
Brian Garrett – Goldman Sachs via Sherwood
3. July Leadership Rotation -Ned Davis
4. We’ve Talked About $6 Trillion in Money Markets…B of A Saying $18 Trillion in Cash
Spilled Coffee Blog
If the consumer can handle any type of slowdown, this is the time. Take a look at the amount of cash US households have now compared to pre-COVID. $18 trillion vs. $13 trillion. That’s over 40% more cash now than in 2019.
Source: Seth Golden
5. Amazon -19% from Highs
6. Intel Trades Back to 1999 Levels….18K Layoffs
7. Earnings Going Up for Utilities
Capital Group
8. Utility Index Chart …Summer Ramp Up
9. Surging Odds of 50 Bps Cut by Fed in September
10. The last little bit -Seth’s Blog
Important hills usually get much steeper at the top.
99% of the training in competitive athletics is devoted to the last 1% of performance. A tenth of a second.
The same is true for squeezing the last bit of performance out of a car, a grape or a semiconductor. And healthcare, luxury goods and science as well.
As soon as we declare it important and invite the world to compete, the problems become more difficult.
Our experience tells us that more input leads to more output, but in asymptotic conditions, where competition is seeking to go to the very end of the curve, this rule is often suspended. The entire point of the competition is how extreme the last few steps are.
The options are pretty clear:
- focus on activities where you’re in the sweet spot of the curve, where more preparation, focus and effort lead to huge benefits. This means walking away from competitions against people who are committed to being unreasonable.
- embrace the unreasonable and accept that your competitors will as well.
While the unreasonable is thrilling, it’s difficult to build a sustainable career around it.