TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 06 2024

1. QQQ Closes Below 200Day Moving Average

 


2. FANG+ ETF -21% from Highs…Still Above 200-Day


3. Fear and Greed Index Hits Extreme Fear Levels

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed


4. VIX Volatility Index +135% in 5 Days..What Happens Next?

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright


5. Japan Lost All of 2024 Gains in 3 Days


6. Nikkei Japan Stock Market -25% from High….Approaching 200day

 


7. TLT 20-Year Treasury +5% in 5 Days


    8. Who is Hoarding NVDA Chips? META


    9. 60% of Today’s Workers are Employed in Occupations that Didn’t Exist in 1940

    Torsten Slok, Ph.D.  Apollo–Global Management  Research by David Autor from MIT shows that 60% of today’s workers are employed in occupations that didn’t exist in 1940, see chart below.

    This is important when discussing what impact AI may have on the labor market.


    10. Leave the Crown in the Garage -Farnam Street

    Reading-Indra Nooyi on leaving your crown in the garage:

    “I drove home. It was about 10 p.m., and the wintery roads were peaceful and dark. In those fifteen minutes behind the wheel, I let myself enjoy my accomplishment. I had worked so hard, learned so much, and earned my place. I entered our house through the kitchen door and dropped my keys and bag on the counter. I was bursting with excitement—so eager to tell everyone. Then my mother appeared. “I have the most incredible news!” I exclaimed. “The news can wait,” she said. “I need you to go out and get milk.” “Why didn’t you ask Raj to go get the milk?” I asked. “It looks like he came home a while ago.” “He looked tired, so I didn’t want to disturb him,” she said. I picked up my keys, went back to the car, drove to the Stop & Shop a mile away, and bought a gallon of whole milk. When I walked into the kitchen again, I was hopping mad. I slammed the plastic bottle on the counter. “I’ve just become president of PepsiCo, and you couldn’t just stop and listen to my news,” I said, loudly. “You just wanted me to go get the milk!” “Listen to me,” my mother replied. “You may be the president or whatever of PepsiCo, but when you come home, you are a wife and a mother and a daughter. Nobody can take your place. “So you leave that crown in the garage.”

    Still, my mother’s comment that night has stuck with me—just vague enough to interpret in myriad ways. First, I think she said something deeply important about how we combine work and family. She was right, of course, that no matter who we are or what we do, nobody can take our place in our families. I was enjoying big success, but the stability of our home meant I would be equally valued and important whether or not I had been named president of PepsiCo, she indicated

    The “crown in the garage” comment also speaks to the broader relationship between power and humility. This is an incredible lesson for those who rise in their careers and end up in roles that give them real authority in the workplace and in society.”

    — Source: My Life in Full: Work, Family, and Our Future (Members can access my highlights here).   https://fs.blog/

    Important hills usually get much steeper at the top.

    99% of the training in competitive athletics is devoted to the last 1% of performance. A tenth of a second.

    The same is true for squeezing the last bit of performance out of a car, a grape or a semiconductor. And healthcare, luxury goods and science as well.

    As soon as we declare it important and invite the world to compete, the problems become more difficult.

    Our experience tells us that more input leads to more output, but in asymptotic conditions, where competition is seeking to go to the very end of the curve, this rule is often suspended. The entire point of the competition is how extreme the last few steps are.

    The options are pretty clear:

    1. focus on activities where you’re in the sweet spot of the curve, where more preparation, focus and effort lead to huge benefits. This means walking away from competitions against people who are committed to being unreasonable.
    2. embrace the unreasonable and accept that your competitors will as well. While the unreasonable is thrilling, it’s difficult to build a sustainable career around it.

    https://seths.blog

    TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 05 2024

    1. No Idea What Happens Going Forward but this is 29th 5% Correction Since 2009 Low

    S&P 500 pullback. “The S&P 500 is down 5.6% from its peak on July 16, the 2nd pullback of the year. This is the 29th correction >5% off of a high since the March 2009 low. They all seemed like the end of the world at the time.”

    @charliebilello

     


    2. Earnings Season Volatility 

    Earnings season volatility. “If it’s felt like a volatile earnings season, that’s because it is. In fact, this has been the most volatile earnings season since the financial crisis.”

    Brian Garrett – Goldman Sachs via Sherwood


    3. July Leadership Rotation -Ned Davis

    www.ndr.com


    4. We’ve Talked About $6 Trillion in Money Markets…B of A Saying $18 Trillion in Cash

    Spilled Coffee Blog
    If the consumer can handle any type of slowdown, this is the time. Take a look at the amount of cash US households have now compared to pre-COVID. $18 trillion vs. $13 trillion. That’s over 40% more cash now than in 2019.

    Source: Seth Golden

     


    5. Amazon -19% from Highs


    6. Intel Trades Back to 1999 Levels….18K Layoffs


    7. Earnings Going Up for Utilities

    Capital Group

    https://www.capitalgroup.com/


      8. Utility Index Chart …Summer Ramp Up


      9. Surging Odds of 50 Bps Cut by Fed in September


      10. The last little bit -Seth’s Blog

      Important hills usually get much steeper at the top.

      99% of the training in competitive athletics is devoted to the last 1% of performance. A tenth of a second.

      The same is true for squeezing the last bit of performance out of a car, a grape or a semiconductor. And healthcare, luxury goods and science as well.

      As soon as we declare it important and invite the world to compete, the problems become more difficult.

      Our experience tells us that more input leads to more output, but in asymptotic conditions, where competition is seeking to go to the very end of the curve, this rule is often suspended. The entire point of the competition is how extreme the last few steps are.

      The options are pretty clear:

      1. focus on activities where you’re in the sweet spot of the curve, where more preparation, focus and effort lead to huge benefits. This means walking away from competitions against people who are committed to being unreasonable.
      2. embrace the unreasonable and accept that your competitors will as well.

      While the unreasonable is thrilling, it’s difficult to build a sustainable career around it.

      https://seths.blog

      TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 01 2024

      1. AMD -40% from Highs Before Last Night’s Earnings

      +9% after earnings

       


      2. NVIDIA -25% Off Highs


      3. Crowdstrike -43% from Highs

      From Callum Thomas @Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)


      4. The Cap Spending Boom No Slowdown

      https://www.geekwire.com


      5. Rotation Watch Continues

      Equities: The rotation from mega-cap stocks to smaller-capitalization shares continues.

       


      6. Tech Jobs No Longer Concentrated In Cali

      Bloomberg -Justin Fox

      https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-07-26/tech-jobs-keep-moving-out-of-california-don-t-panic-yet?sref=GGda9y2L

       


      7. More Good New for Inflation

      From Dave Lutz Jones Trading
      Journos note that Commodity prices are set for their worst month since the middle of last year


        8. Revenue Exposure to Foreign Countries


        9. Who was Ismail Haniyeh and why is his assassination a blow to Hamas?

        Reuters By Samia Nakhoul and Stephen Farrell

        https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/obituary-tough-talking-haniyeh-was-seen-more-moderate-face-hamas-2024-07-31/


        10. 12 Career Advice Bullets

         

        TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 31 2024

        1-2. AI vs. the Web

        I wrote about AI boom not being a 1999 moment in my quarterly letter, Bespoke comments below.

        Bespoke Investment Group In our premium research over the last few months, we’ve done a lot of analysis comparing the launch of ChatGPT and the AI Boom that has ensued with other major technological advances over the last few decades.  One of the most correlated periods to now in terms of the Nasdaq 100’s performance was the launch of the modern web browser (Netscape) back in late 1994. Just as ChatGPT brought AI to the masses, the Netscape browser made the internet easily accessible.As shown in the chart below that was included in our latest Bespoke Report newsletter, if we tie the release of ChatGPT in November 2022 to the release of the Netscape web browser in December 1994, the Nasdaq 100 is up about the same amount, and we would currently be around August 1996 on a time scale.
        What’s interesting about August 1996 is that we’d be about four months away from Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s famous “Irrational Exuberance” comments that were meant to highlight some of the frothiness that he was seeing in markets at the time.

        Those comments by Alan Greenspan turned out to be correct (eventually), but if we expand the chart above out ten years, they were about three years early!  As shown below, the Nasdaq would go on to experience a massive bubble for years after Greenspan’s first mention of “irrational exuberance” in late 1996.There are plenty of investors saying the same thing and worse about Tech/AI stocks right now, but keep in mind that we’ve yet to see a pick-up on the M&A and IPO fronts that usually accompany bubbles.  Some of that can be tied back to the fact that companies that may have gone public 25 years ago are often getting acquired before they go public, but overall, the AI Boom, while certainly hot, still seems far more subdued than what we saw during peak Internet boom back in the late 1990s.

        Of course, every boom/bust cycle is different, and the chart below is not to suggest that the Nasdaq will continue following the path it took back in the 1990s. We just thought it was helpful to see the two periods side by side when comparing the launch of ChatGPT to the launch of the Netscape web browser.As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results!We have a lot more interesting analysis like this in our newest Bespoke Report. If you’d like to read it, simply start a trial to one of our three membership levels.

        https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/ai-vs-the-web


        3. Regional Bank ETF KRE

        KRE-42% off lows….back to 2022 levels.


        4. US vs. Euro Stocks

        From Callum Thomas @Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)


        5. Another Look at the Diverging Paths of India and China

        The business cycles in China and India are decoupling after having grown in sync for decades, see chart below.

        Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management


        6. Truflation Hits 1.6%…Good Sign for Fed

        @Charlie Bilello


        7. Copper Sell-Off Helping Lower Inflation

        Copper Sell-Off Helping Lower Inflation


        8. Europe Mega Cap 50 Failed to Make New Highs


          9. Annual Hours Worked by Country


          10. Americans Opinion on Government Departments

           

          www.chartr.com

           

          TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 30 2024

          1. Tom Lee Fundstrat on Small Caps

          Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee and his team saw an important quantitative signal last week that historically has been followed by strong win ratios for small-caps: The Russell 2000 has been volatile, trading at +/- 1% in 11 out of the last 12 trading sessions. This has happened only 10 times in non-bear markets since 1979 – in 1987, 1998, 2009 (4x), 2011, 2020 (2x). “These were all clear ‘risk-on’ years and more importantly, ‘early cycle’ years,” Lee pointed out. In those historic precedents we found high win ratios for small-caps one-month forward, as well as three, six, and 12 months afterwards. In fact, the historical win ratio was 100% in the three-, six-, and 12-month forward-looking periods. We see this in our Chart of the Week

          Home


          2. Over the Last 12 Trading Days…13% Spread Between Small Caps and S&P

          @Charlie Bilello
          US Small Caps are up 10% over the last 12 trading days while US Large Caps are down 3%. The 13% spread is the largest 12-day Small Cap outperformance ever.


          3. What Will It Take for Equal Weight S&P to Outperform Cap Weight?

          Barrons Ben Levisohn 
          Bank of America’s Ohsung Kwon looked at when the equal-weight S&P 500—another proxy for the rotation trade—outperformed the market-cap-weighted version of the index. He found that it did so 90% of the time when the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell a full point from its 12-month high and when the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing purchasing managers index rose over four points from its lows. For those two things to happen now, the 10-year yield would have to drop to 3.99% from a recent 4.21%, and the PMI would have to hit 50.5, from June’s 48.5. That seems like a big ask.

          https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-stock-market-rotation-has-occurred-what-comes-next-6137aa72?mod=past_editions


          4. Corporate Insider Selling

          Corporate insiders are dumping stock at the fastest rate in more than a decade
          Marketwatch By Mark Hulbert 

          Corporate insiders have taken a sharply pessimistic turn — selling their companies’ shares at the fastest rate in at least a decade.  That’s according to InsiderSentiment.com, a website maintained by Nejat and Jon Seyhun. The former is a finance professor at the University of Michigan and one of academia’s leading experts on interpreting the behavior of insiders.  In calculating their insider-sentiment indicators, the Seyhuns focus only on two of the three categories that the law defines as insiders (corporate officers and directors) and ignore the third (a company’s largest shareholders). That’s because Professor Seyhun has found from his research that these large shareholders on balance have no privileged insight into their companies’ prospects. Because their transactions are typically several orders of magnitude larger than those of officers and directors, including them skews the much more valuable signals coming from officers and directors.

          The insider indicator that the Seyhuns calculate is the percentage of all companies with any officer or director transactions for which there has been net buying. The past decade’s average is 26%, and up until July this ratio had been slightly to moderately below this average. In the first three weeks of July, however, the insider buy ratio turned “deeply negative” — to 13.6%, its lowest in at least a decade, as you can see from the accompanying chart.

           

          https://www.marketwatch.com/story/corporate-insiders-are-dumping-stock-at-the-fastest-rate-in-more-than-a-decade-4cc5ed3a


          5. Ethereum New ETF Lags Bitcoin

          MarketEar Blog

          https://themarketear.com/newsfeed


          6. Chinese Tech ETF -16% from 2024 Highs

          KWEB closes back below 200-day


          7. Warren Buffett Reduced Most of Top Holdings

          https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffett-is-in-a-selling-mood-whats-next-16694668?mod=past_editions


          8. Home Inventories Inching Higher But Still Below Average -Bloomberg


            9. Africa Divided in Half by Religion

            https://www.zerohedge.com/


            10. The Growing Evidence That Americans Are Less Divided Than You May Think

            Time BY KARL VICK

            Read Full Article
            https://time.com/6990721/us-politics-polarization-myth/