1. History of VIX Crashes
@Charlie Bilello
They don’t appear to be. Following the biggest $VIX declines in the past the S&P 500 has been higher 1 year later 100% of the time with an average total return of +14.3%.
2. Ex-Shelter and Auto Insurance…CPI Negative
The latest Core CPI reading last week provided good news for the Federal Reserve, and so did its internals. Shelter and auto-insurance components continued to account for the bulk of inflation, but, as we have noted previously, both these components are lagging relative to current, real-world conditions and will eventually become disinflationary when they catch up. As our Chart of the Week shows below, core CPI excluding these two components came in at -0.04 MoM.
3. Long-Term Inflation Readings Downward
4. Cybersecurity ETF About to Make New Highs Despite CRWD Blow Up
5. Another REIT Stat
Barrons By Lewis Braham
The REIT sector is now trading at a 10% discount to the S&P 500 in terms of funds from operations, according to Ryan Dobratz, co-manager of the Third Avenue Real Estate Value fund. “If you were to go back over the past 20 years, it has traded at a 30% premium on average,” he says. “And we haven’t seen the REIT index at a discount really outside of the pandemic, the 2008-09 financial crisis, and the early 2000s.”
https://www.barrons.com/articles/real-estate-staging-comeback-6-funds-7fe2a71b?mod=past_editions
Vanguard REIT Chart Making Its Way Back to 2022 Levels
6. Tesla Big Bet on Self-Driving Car….Software Improving
Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com
https://www.barrons.com/articles/teslas-self-driving-software-is-getting-better-39031f02?mod=past_editions
7. Chinese Stock Market Back to 2007 Levels
Wolf Street Blog
China’s stock markets have been a long-term horror show for foreign investors. Since the peak in October 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index has plunged 52.5%. Today, at 2,894, it’s back where it had first been in January 2007. Buy and hold forever?
8. Startups Running Leaner -Chartr
The startup squeeze
The startup world is facing rougher seas. Over the past year, the number of fledgling companies closing shop has surged by 60%, and startup bankruptcies are now 7X higher than in 2019, according to data from Carta reported by the FT.
With higher interest rates, funding has dried up for many startups. Anyone involved in AI may still be having success fundraising, but in many other industries the landscape is significantly more challenged than it has been in recent years. Indeed, data from PitchBook reveals that AI and machine learning startups raised some $27 billion last quarter — nearly half of all VC investment.
With dealmaking slower than it was in 2021, many startups are scrambling, trimming what is often their biggest expense: employees.
Data from Carta shows that headcounts have dropped across the board. For instance, seed stage companies have gone from having nearly 7 employees on average to just over 5, while companies that closed Series C rounds in the first half of 2024 did so with workforces that were, on average, 43% smaller than those of last year.
Interestingly, these reductions appear to be driven more by hiring freezes than outright layoffs. The first 4 months of this year saw the lowest number of new hires for those months in the past 4 years. Most striking, January — which is typically a busy month for recruitment — recorded its lowest number of new hires so far this decade.
It seems the startup world is, perhaps out of necessity, embracing the mantra of “doing more with less.”
9. The New Residential Real Estate Commission Structure
WSJ By Nicole Friedman and Laura Kusisto
https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/new-real-estate-commission-rules-impact-9a880731
10. Two Things We Constantly Do That Make Our Lives Worse
Psychology Today
How ignoring our weaknesses and strengths leads to unfulfilled potential.
Nick Kabrél, MA, is a psychology researcher at the University of Zurich.
KEY POINTS
- We often engage in behaviors that worsen our lives, but all of them can be summarized as two key points.
- We often sabotage our lives by ignoring our weaknesses, thinking they’re not urgent enough to address.
- We also tend to overlook our strengths, failing to develop the potential that could bring us fulfillment.
What do we do psychologically to live a worse life? When I just started to think of this, I first found many potential actions and thoughts that can make our lives worse. Consider bad habits, resentment, jealousy, arrogance, low self-esteem, and many more. Yet, when I conducted a more thorough analysis and extracted the gist of those behaviors, I realized that all of these actions can be aptly summarized under two key points.
Before we discuss them, let me share an example from my own life. Recently, one client came to my consultation who, at first glance, seemed to embody the image of an ideal man. He ate only healthy food, practiced yoga and meditation daily, listened to meaningful podcasts about physical and mental health, and had a promising career at a reputable company.
On the surface, his life appeared to be flourishing. However, he sought my help for a reason. As we spoke, I realized that he was engaging in precisely the two detrimental behaviors I had identified. Despite his many positive habits, these two actions were significantly undermining his overall well-being and making his life less fulfilling. So what are those things?
We know our weak sides, yet we don’t work on them
There are generally two types of people when it comes to confronting personal weaknesses. The first type are those who claim they don’t have any weaknesses, and therefore, see no need to work on anything. As a response, I have only one thing to say: this is a dangerous form of self-deception.
We all have aspects of ourselves that we could improve. Claiming to be flawless is often a sign of a lack of willingness to self-reflect and grow. This mindset leads us to ignore our problems when they are not immediately disruptive. We tend to think, “Unless this issue completely ruins my life, I don’t need to address it,” forgetting that unresolved issues usually resurface when triggered.
The second type are those who acknowledge their weaknesses but procrastinate on addressing them. They might admit, “Yes, there is something within me that needs work,” but for various reasons, they delay taking action. Many people whom I met expressed a desire to seek help from a psychologist or coach someday. This exactly shows that somewhere in the back of their mind, they know that there is a problem they could work on. Yet, what I see is that they continue to waste their time in hesitation and almost certainly will not ever start working on themselves.
Don’t get me wrong—I’m not saying that I don’t engage in those behaviors. On the contrary, I was able to write this piece only because I constantly find these tendencies in my own behavior. So, I also encourage you to be honest with yourself as I am. If you look at your own behavior, can you find something similar there? Do you know where your weak side is? Do you prefer to turn a blind eye to it?
We know our strong sides, yet we don’t work on them
The flip side of ignoring our weaknesses is the tendency to overlook our strengths. I know many people who live an unsatisfactory life. What unites them? They never made an effort to identify their strengths, let alone to use them confidently and develop them further. Our feelings of meaninglessness and dissatisfaction with our lives often stem from the unrealized potential that we could contribute to the world.
People who make their own lives miserable are often those who leave their potential under a parapet. You could say that they are being irresponsible to life itself, as they fail to give the world what they could have offered. Indeed, there are many terrible things in the world that could be fixed by you, by me, or by the client I recently had. Yet, we often choose to remain silent, hiding from the potential great things we could achieve if we only developed our strengths.
We add more problems to our lives when we think along the following lines: “Oh, no, I can’t ask for this promotion; I’m not great enough,” or “I’m not ready for this. I need to become someone important to take on this responsibility,” or “I’m scared of what people will think if I do this.” These are voluntary, and sometimes even conscious, mistakes that evidently make our lives worse.
Where does it lead us?
If you feel that your life is worse than you think it should be, check if you do the two things that I described today. Do you have some weak sides, bad habits, addictions, social anxiety, depressive moods, lack of communication skills, or hesitation about what people think about you? Ask yourself why you haven’t taken steps to address these issues.
Additionally, consider whether you are neglecting opportunities to develop your strengths. Do you lack a good job or a hobby that you are passionate about and could excel in? If so, why aren’t you taking steps to pursue these interests?
Or perhaps you already have a decent job and have achieved some success. Yet, you feel you are not as high as you could be and as you wanted it to be? Why don’t you go in this direction?
I hope this post has helped you realize that a significant part of our life’s dissatisfaction stems from our own actions or inactions regarding personal growth. If you feel your life is not as good as it should be, it might be time to focus on the two key aspects I’ve described.
In my next posts on Psychology Today, I will describe practical steps and strategies to deal with those.
