TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 30, 2024

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. NVDA Revenue Growth Slowdown

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-biggest-challenge-for-nvidia-stock-in-one-chart-142146081.html

2. Charted: Nvidia’s Quarterly Revenue (Q1 2021-Q2 2025)

ByKayla Zhu Joyce Ma

3. Dollar General 5-Year Return -45%

4. Fed Rate Cuts Coming-Dividend Growers Break Out.

SDY dividend grower ETF…..breaks out of 3 year sideways channel

www.stockcharts.com

5. Fed Funds vs. Inflation

Barry Ritholtz Blog

6. Seasonality of Bitcoin

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

7. Goldman Most Shorted Stock Basket

8. Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall 5.5% in July to All-Time Low

by Jennifer Nash-Advisor Perspectives

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/08/29/pending-home-sales-unexpectedly-fall-5-5-in-july-to-all-time-low

9. ESPN Survival Plan -Axios

https://www.axios.com/2024/08/29/espns-business-cable-streaming-sports-betting

10. The Science-Backed Productivity Strategy You Probably Ignore

Productivity strategies rarely consider how the brain optimizes motivation. Psychology Today  Bobby Hoffman Ph.D.

Key points

  • Productivity strategies should be based on science, not the personal experience of others.
  • Understanding neural synthesis can make the difference between superior and average performance.
  • Productivity means maximizing the power of your circadian rhythm.

For many of us, what we accomplish on a particular day impacts everything from our reputation to our mood. Productivity serves as a cornerstone of success, acting as the driving force behind achievement in both our personal and professional lives. Research reveals a strong positive correlation between productivity and various measures of well-being, including career advancement, financial stability, and overall life satisfaction (Dierdorff, 2019; Judge et al., 2010). The ability to efficiently manage time, prioritize tasks, and maintain focus on goal-oriented activities significantly contributes to an individual’s capacity to excel in their chosen field (Grant & Ashford, 2008). While the relationship between productivity and success is well-established, it is crucial to recognize that productivity itself is not a fixed trait. Rather, it is a skill that can be cultivated and enhanced through the implementation of targeted strategies and learned techniques.

Use techniques based on science, not “expert” experience

However, when it comes to productivity strategies, we often rely on sources and techniques that have little basis in science. The allure of advice from self-proclaimed experts often falls short because, while the “gurus” may offer appealing quick fixes, their recommendations frequently lack scientific rigor and fail to account for the complex interplay of neural processes that underpin human behavior and cognition (Lilienfeld et al., 2013). Although personal experience can be valuable for individual growth, it is inherently limited by factors such as cognitive biases, environmental influences, and the exclusion of individual differences in neural architecture. Instead, the reliance on neuropsychology leverages how your body operates, irrespective of how you or anyone else thinks.

When someone is being super productive, several key processes occur in their brain and body. At the neurochemical level, dopamine synthesis promotes motivation and focus, while norepinephrine enhances alertness and attention (Cools & D’Esposito, 2011). When you’re in the zone, crushing your to-do list, your brain is like a well-oiled machine because dopamine helps increase activation in the prefrontal cortex, the brain area that is critical for cognitive control impacting things like planning, decision-making, and goal-directed behavior. As you use your cognitive horsepower and repeat productive behaviors, you begin to feel successful. The more you flex those productivity muscles, the stronger they get and the better you feel. That’s neuroplasticity in action, rewiring your brain to make being productive feel like second nature (Lövdén et al., 2010). In addition, productivity is influenced by the body’s circadian rhythms, meaning that cognitive functions and energy levels fluctuate throughout the day in accordance with our internal clocks.

Make it happen!

Knowing what happens behind the scenes in your brain and how neurotransmission impacts motivation, you can now use this knowledge to enhance your productivity. Just like you feed your body with food for energy and movement, you need to feed your brain to be productive. Stanford neuroscientist and ophthalmology professor Andrew Huberman recommends a specific morning protocol to get you going based on how your brain operates, with the objective of producing game-changing dopamine transmission while leveraging your natural circadian rhythms.

The routine starts with exposing yourself to natural sunlight soon after waking. This means going outside, without sunglasses, and before drinking coffee/tea and staying outside for at least 20 minutes (ideally moving) to significantly boost dopamine production and overall well-being. This practice helps regulate your circadian rhythm and triggers a cascade of positive neurochemical changes. The bright light stimulates melanopsin receptors in your eyes, which then signal the brain to release cortisol, providing an energy boost. More importantly, this early light exposure sets off a delayed release of dopamine and serotonin later in the day. This natural light exposure is crucial even on cloudy days, as outdoor light is much stronger than indoor lighting. This simple habit can improve mood, increase alertness, and enhance overall cognitive function throughout the day. For those living in areas with limited morning sunlight, use bright artificial lights designed to mimic sunlight, although natural sunlight is always preferable when available. Always take precautions to not look directly into the light as a way to shorten the process; it is the prolonged natural exposure that matters most.

While you may be skeptical, this simple technique works! I can tell you from personal experience when I follow the protocol my productivity is far better than when I don’t. Give it a try and see how you can exponentially increase your productivity and also your satisfaction about what you accomplish. By acknowledging the malleability of productivity and taking this one small step to improve it, you can unlock your full potential and pave the way for greater success in all areas of life.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/motivate/202408/the-science-backed-productivity-strategy-you-probably-ignore

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 28, 2024

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Earnings Tomorrow NVDA After Close…The Only Chart that Matters this Week.

NVDA-2 Lower Highs in place…Need to close above $140 for breakout.

2. Real Estate Leading Sector for Last Month of Trading.

(7/31 – 8/23) SPDR Fund XLRE leads the major 11 sectors with a 5.29% gain.

3. Japan Stock Market +23% from Lows.

4. Corporate Buyback Data from B of A

Equities: Corporate cash as a share of total assets has been trending lower, indicating that we could see a pullback in share buybacks.

Source: BofA Global Research  

https://dailyshotbrief.com

5. Alternative Energy Stocks Hyrdrogen and Biofuel Sell Off.

WSJ

6. Allbirds Sneaks -97%

Business Insider-The Rise and Fall of Allbirds

  • Allbirds was founded in 2015 and soared to prominence with its iconic wool sneaker.
  • The company went public in November 2021. Shares rose 90% on the opening day of trading.
  • Sales have since slowed and the company reported a nearly 27% decline in quarterly revenue.

With the closure of 14 underperforming stores, CEO Joe Vernachio told investors the past 18 months have been a period of reinvention for the company as it looks to reinvent itself in a leaner, more focused organization.

https://www.businessinsider.com/what-happened-to-allbirds-rise-fall-2023-4

7. Communism Sucks…Chinese Consumer Sentiment Chart.

8. Taliban Vice and Virtue Laws -AP News

Article 13 relates to women. It says it is mandatory for a woman to veil her body at all times in public and that a face covering is essential to avoid temptation and tempting others. Clothing should not be thin, tight or short.

Women should veil themselves in front of all male strangers, including Muslims, and in front of all non-Muslims to avoid being corrupted. A woman’s voice is deemed intimate and so should not be heard singing, reciting, or reading aloud in public. It is forbidden for women to look at men they are not related to by blood or marriage and vice versa.

Article 17 bans the publication of images of living beings, threatening an already fragile Afghan media landscape.

Article 19 bans the playing of music, the transportation of solo female travelers, and the mixing of men and women who are not related to each other. The law also obliges passengers and drivers to perform prayers at designated times.

https://apnews.com/article/afghanistan-taliban-vice-virtue-laws-women-9626c24d8d5450d52d36356ebff20c83

9. Fare Evasion Surges on N.Y.C. Buses, Where 48% of Riders Fail to Pay

August 26, 2024

Every weekday in New York City, close to one million bus riders — roughly one out of every two passengers — board without paying. The skipped fares are a crucial and growing loss of revenue for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which is under severe financial pressure.

New York’s long-running fare evasion problem, among the worst of any major city in the world, has intensified recently; before the pandemic, only about one in five bus riders skipped the fare.

Yet public officials have done relatively little to collect the lost revenue from bus riders. Instead, they have focused almost exclusively on the subway system, where waves of police officers and private security guards have been deployed to enforce payment, even as fare evasion rates on trains are dwarfed by those on buses.

During the first three months of this year, 48 percent of bus riders did not pay, according to the latest available statistics from the transit authority, while 14 percent of subway riders evaded fares. Roughly twice the number of people ride the city’s subways as ride its buses.

Fare evasion has led to startling financial losses for the M.T.A., the state agency that runs the city transit system. In 2022, the authority lost $315 million because of bus fare evasion and $285 million as a result of subway fare beaters, according to a 2023 report commissioned by the M.T.A.

Transit experts say some New Yorkers don’t pay to board the bus because they cannot afford the fare. Others find it far easier to board a bus without paying than to sneak into the subway system, where turnstiles and gates block access. The standard fare for subway riders and most bus passengers is $2.90 per trip.

Fare beaters might also feel emboldened, experts say, because heavy traffic and a lack of bus lanes means that bus service can be slow and unreliable. For some riders, it is simply not worth the price of admission. The pandemic also reinforced the perception that fares were optional, after the authority made bus rides free for a few months in 2020.

“In the public’s mind, they don’t see the bus system as the real source of fare evasion,” said David R. Jones, an M.T.A. board member and the chief executive of the Community Service Society, a nonprofit supporting lower-income New Yorkers. “We have to get people to recognize that this is no longer acceptable.”

Even before the pandemic, bus fare evasion was a serious problem in New York. The evasion rate was roughly 18 percent in 2018, according to a 2019 M.T.A. report. Around that time, the rate was 11 percent in Paris and 5 percent in Toronto. In London, where riders can face fines exceeding $1,000, the fare evasion rate on buses was only 1.5 percent.

Transit leaders in New York have struggled to balance their desire to enforce the rules against the safety of drivers and the needs of low-income commuters. When Andy Byford, the former leader of the city’s subway and bus systems, suggested in 2019 that the M.T.A. needed “cops on buses,” the backlash was swift. The authority for years has sent groups of unarmed employees, known as “eagle teams,” to patrol buses and give tickets to riders who do not pay. Last year the agency expanded the routes they covered.

https://dnyuz.com/2024/08/26/fare-evasion-surges-on-n-y-c-buses-where-48-of-riders-fail-to-pay/

10. The problem isn’t that life is unfair – it’s your broken idea of fairness

Unless you’re winning, most of life will seem hideously unfair to you.-Oliver Emberton  The truth is, life is just playing by different rules.  The real rules are there. They actually make sense. But they’re a bit more complicated, and a lot less comfortable, which is why most people never manage to learn them.

Let’s try.

Rule #1: Life is a competition

That business you work for? Someone’s trying to kill it. That job you like? Someone would love to replace you with a computer program. That girlfriend / boyfriend / high-paying job / Nobel Prize that you want? So does somebody else.

We’re all in competition, although we prefer not to realise it. Most achievements are only notable relative to others. You swam more miles, or can dance better, or got more Facebook Likes than the average. Well done.

It’s a painful thing to believe, of course, which is why we’re constantly assuring each other the opposite. “Just do your best”, we hear. “You’re only in competition with yourself”. The funny thing about platitudes like that is they’re designed to make you try harder anyway. If competition really didn’t matter, we’d tell struggling children to just give up.

Fortunately, we don’t live in a world where everyone has to kill each other to prosper. The blessing of modern civilisation is there’s abundant opportunities, and enough for us all to get by, even if we don’t compete directly.

But never fall for the collective delusion that there’s not a competition going on. People dress up to win partners. They interview to win jobs. If you deny that competition exists, you’re just losing. Everything in demand is on a competitive scale. And the best is only available to those who are willing to truly fight for it.

Rule #2. You’re judged by what you do, not what you think

Society judges people by what they can do for others. Can you save children from a burning house, or remove a tumour, or make a room of strangers laugh? You’ve got value right there.

That’s not how we judge ourselves though. We judge ourselves by our thoughts.

“I’m a good person”. “I’m ambitious”. “I’m better than this.” These idle impulses may comfort us at night, but they’re not how the world sees us. They’re not even how we see other people.

Well-meaning intentions don’t matter. An internal sense of honour and love and duty count for squat. What exactly can you and have you done for the world?

Abilities are not prized by their virtue. Whatever admiration society awards us, comes from the selfish perspectives of others. A hard working janitor is less rewarded by society than a ruthless stockbroker. A cancer researcher is rewarded less than a supermodel. Why? Because those abilities are rarer and impact more people.

We like to like to think that society rewards those who do the best work. Like so:

But in reality, social reward is just a network effect. Reward comes down mostly to the number of people you impact:

Write an unpublished book, you’re nobody. Write Harry Potter and the world wants to know you. Save a life, you’re a small-town hero, but cure cancer and you’re a legend. Unfortunately, the same rule applies to all talents, even unsavoury ones: get naked for one person and you might just make them smile, get naked for fifty million people and you might just be Kim Kardashian.

You may hate this. It may make you sick. Reality doesn’t care. You’re judged by what you have the ability to do, and the volume of people you can impact. If you don’t accept this, then the judgement of the world will seem very unfair indeed.

Rule #3. Our idea of fairness is self interest

People like to invent moral authority. It’s why we have referees in sports games and judges in courtrooms: we have an innate sense of right and wrong, and we expect the world to comply. Our parents tell us this. Our teachers teach us this. Be a good boy, and have some candy.

But reality is indifferent. You studied hard, but you failed the exam. You worked hard, but you didn’t get promoted. You love her, but she won’t return your calls.

The problem isn’t that life is unfair; it’s your broken idea of fairness.

Take a proper look at that person you fancy but didn’t fancy you back. That’s a complete person. A person with years of experience being someone completely different to you. A real person who interacts with hundreds or thousands of other people every year.

Now what are the odds that among all that, you’re automatically their first pick for love-of-their-life? Because – what – you exist? Because you feel something for them? That might matter to you, but their decision is not about you.

Similarly we love to hate our bosses and parents and politicians. Their judgements are unfair. And stupid. Because they don’t agree with me! And they should! Because I am unquestionably the greatest authority on everything ever in the whole world!

It’s true there are some truly awful authority figures. But they’re not all evil, self-serving monsters trying to line their own pockets and savour your misery. Most are just trying to do their best, under different circumstances to your own.

Maybe they know things you don’t – like, say, your company will go bust if they don’t do something unpopular. Maybe they have different priorities to you – like, say, long term growth over short term happiness.

But however they make you feel, the actions of others are not some cosmic judgement on your being. They’re just a byproduct of being alive.

Why life isn’t fair

Our idea of fairness isn’t actually obtainable. It’s really just a cloak for wishful thinking.

Can you imagine how insane life would be if it actually was ‘fair’ to everyone? No-one could fancy anyone who wasn’t the love of their life, for fear of breaking a heart. Companies would only fail if everyone who worked for them was evil. Relationships would only end when both partners died simultaneously. Raindrops would only fall on bad people.

Most of us get so hung up on how we think the world should work that we can’t see how it does. But facing that reality might just be the key to unlocking your understanding of the world, and with it, all of your potential.

https://oliveremberton.com/2014/the-problem-isnt-that-life-is-unfair-its-your-broken-idea-of-fairness/

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 27, 2024

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Nasdaq Fastest 10% Rally From Correction Ever

Source: Michael Batnick

2. Regional Bank Index +5% on Friday

KRE-watch for new highs.

3. Asset Class Real Returns by Time Horizon

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright.

4. Travel Slowdown Post Labor Day??

5. China Invasion? Taiwan Home Prices Not Worried

Bloomberg By Hailey Wang  The median home price in Taipei is 16.1 times median household income, according to Taiwan’s interior ministry. That compares with 3.8 times in Singapore and 7.1 times in New York, though it’s still lower than in Hong Kong, at 16.7 times, according to researchers at Chapman University in California studying data from late last year. Prices in Taiwan are being fueled by mortgage costs that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says have been negative in inflation-adjusted terms for much of the past three years: In May, rates for new loans stood as low as 2.19%, according to the central bank, versus 2.9% in Singapore and 4.1% in Hong Kong.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-22/frenzy-fuels-taiwan-home-prices-despite-threat-of-china-invasion?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=GGda9y2L

6. Private Clients Buying Interest Rate Sensitive Sectors-REITS and Financials …Selling Japan

From the Daily Shot Brief  https://dailyshotbrief.com/

7. 10 U.S. housing markets where buyers have the most power right now: They’re ‘in a good position to negotiate,’ expert says

CNBC Celia Fernandez@cfernan6  Florida’s housing markets reigned supreme in Realtor.com’s report, with nine out of the top 10 in the Sunshine State.

“Buyers in the easiest markets tend to be relatively slow-moving as supply outpaces demand,” Hannah Jones, Realtor.com’s economist, stated in the report. “Many of these markets saw prices and competition climb significantly during the early days of the [covid-19] pandemic, but the combination of high prices and climbing mortgage rates tempered demand, leading to building inventory.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/26/us-housing-markets-buyers-most-power-realtor-com.html

8. Generation Z Voter Gender Gap is 39 Points

NY Times–When President Biden was still in the race, men ages 18 to 29 favored Mr. Trump by an average of 11 percentage points, while young women favored Mr. Biden by 28 points, according to four national New York Times/Siena College polls conducted from last December to June. That was a 39-point gender gap — far exceeding that of any older generation.

And in Times/Siena polls of six swing states this month — taken after Ms. Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee — young men favored Mr. Trump by 13 points, while young women favored Ms. Harris by 38 points, a 51-point gap. (Our companion article on the shift among young women is here.) https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/24/upshot/trump-polls-young-men.html

9. 47% of Teachers in this Poll Say “students showing little to no interest in learning”

Philadelphia Inquirer by Maddie Hanna and Kristen A. Graham

https://www.inquirer.com/education/school-district-mobile-phone-bans-20240825.html

 

10. A shortage of young men in the workforce could weigh on housing, Social Security, and growth for years to come

Story by jsor@businessinsider.com (Jennifer Sor)

-Declining workforce participation among younger men could weigh on the US economy for years.

  • The trend could be a drag on economic growth, housing, and Social Security funds, experts say.
  • The effects could last decades as there are no clear ways to spark a turnaround. 

America’s job market is mysteriously short of young men.

It’s a trend experts say will drag on the economy and could take years to fix, mainly because men have already been dropping out of the workforce for decades.

According to Carol Graham, a senior fellow of economic studies at the Brookings Institute, the labor force participation rate of prime working-age men has been declining over the last twenty years. Today, 10% of men aged 25-54 don’t have a job and aren’t looking for one, more than triple the percentage recorded in 1955, when just 3% were out of the workforce, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

That amounts to around 7 million prime working-age men who aren’t working — and has introduced a host of problems for the economy, leaving key industries understaffed and adding to the strain on government services and social safety nets, Graham and other experts told Business Insider.

“Some of them drop out [of college] and are just sort of forlorn and have no purpose or meaning in life. They’re not very likely to be married. They’re very likely to be living in their parent’s basement,” Graham said. “They’re lonely, they’re isolated.”

The economic burden can also compound through generations, she added, given that men who have exited the workforce tend to be lower-income and are more likely to report mental and physical health problems, which impact their children’s ability to build wealth.

Zack Mabel, a research professor at Georgetown University, theorizes that falling labor force participation among young men could impact the economy for at least several decades.

“At this point, it’s a long trend over the course of multiple decades that does not appear to be improving, and could have real long-term consequences,” he said.

Straining the economy

The economy appears to already be feeling the decline in male workforce participation. Despite a small post-pandemic rebound, US GDP per employee fell 1% in 2022, the first decline seen since the World Bank began recording productivity data over 30 years ago.

The overall labor force participation rate, meanwhile, has slumped to 62%. Besides the years following the pandemic, US workforce participation rate hasn’t been that low since the 70s, World Bank data shows.

The trend could weigh on key industries, like infrastructure and manufacturing, where women are often less likely to seek work due to social stigma, Mabel said. That means it could be hard for those industries to find workers, which is a big problem considering the need for labor in growing areas like semiconductors, he added.

“In a situation where you have millions of men … foregoing college, and as a result are less productive and less able to hold onto a stable job, yes, that certainly would raise concerns our national productivity would suffer as a result,” Mabel said.

And while the housing market may be booming now, it is also possible that men leaving the labor force will weigh on that market as well. Meredith Whitney, a longtime Wall Street forecaster, predicts home prices could drop as much as 30% over a period of years thanks to men working less, being less interested in starting families, and being more likely to live with their parents.

Those trends all weigh on household formation, which is the most important factor in determining home prices over the long term, Whitney said.

42% of men who have exited the workforce live with at least one parent, a 2017 Brookings study found.

“This is such a seismic shift in the social structure,” she told BI. “It’s hard to say how long it lasts.”

Government benefits are also hugely taxed by men who are not in the workforce.

Men who have dropped out of the workforce, for one, are significantly more likely to suffer from opioid addiction, Graham said. 44% of men who were out of the workforce said they needed to take pain medication — more than double the portion recorded in employed men, where just 20% took pain meds, a separate Brookings study found.

57% of men not looking for work said they had a physical, mental, or behavioral reason, according to a survey conducted by BPC-Artemis.

11% of men who have exited the labor force rely entirely on government welfare programs for income, according to Brookings data.

“They cost the health system. They go to the emergency room and they’re sick, they’re not going to be able to pay the bills,” Graham said. “That’s coming out of somewhere.”

The welfare burden is exacerbated by the fact that unemployed men aren’t contributing to benefit programs such as through Social Security taxes.

“Potentially, more and more people would benefit and depend on resources that we don’t actually have the means to provide … And that then would really present itself as a huge societal conundrum,” Mabel warned.

There’s no clear answer for how to get young men back into the workforce. The causes appear to be multifold — disabilities, incarceration, and wages not being enticing enough, to name a few —but possible solutions could lie in helping train men for the jobs that are available, according to Graham, or finding ways to give young men role models, such as by hiring more male teachers, Mabel said.

“There’s clearly an economic cost for more than one generation if the trends continue,” Graham told BI. “There are lots of ways it costs society in addition to their individual human lives.”

This story was originally published in June 2024. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ar-BB1nTJ6g#image=1

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 26, 2024

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Barrons-The past four Septembers, the market has performed -3.9%, -4.8%, -9.3%, and -4.9%.

QQQ Leader-Bounced at 200-day, but still 25 points from previous highs.

2. Bespoke Mortgage Plus Gas Index-Two Giant Factors for Consumers

Bespoke Investment Group-Combined, our MORTGAS Index currently sits at 10.2.  As shown below, the index is down 1.46 points from its record high of 11.66 seen in late 2023, but it’s still extremely elevated relative to the last 20 years.  Looking on the bright side, the index is now back below its peak seen in 2008 during the Financial Crisis, but we’re going to need to see significant further easing to get back to the 20-year average of 7.62.  A drop like that would likely mean mortgage rates falling at least into the 4-5% range and gas prices remaining closer to a 2-handle than a 4-handle.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/research/think-big-blog

3. Emerging Markets Ex-China Technical Breakout

4. Crypto Sentiment…Crypto Fear and Greed Index

Equities: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in the “fear” zone after a sharp drop from “greed” levels during the sell-off in risk assets. The Daily Shot Blog

Source: Alternative.me

https://dailyshotbrief.com

5. Gold vs. Bitcoin Volatility.

Marketwatch-Bitcoin and gold are very different assets, with the latter much less volatile, noted Cavatoni. In the five years between Dec. 31, 2018 and December 31, 2023, bitcoin showed an average daily volatility of roughly 60%, while gold’s volatility was at about 15%. By Frances Yue

PHOTO: WORLD GOLD COUNCIL

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/so-much-for-digital-gold-why-bitcoin-remains-lackluster-while-gold-had-a-record-run-abc1d07d?mod=home-page

6. New York Population Exodus-Financial Times.

https://www.ft.com/content/6c490381-d2f0-4691-a65f-219fab2a2202

7. The Modern Family: Married Households Decline to 47% in the U.S. Share of U.S. Households by Married Couples, Other Families, and Nonfamilies (1950–2023)

From Barry Ritholtz Blog https://ritholtz.com/2024/08/sunday-reads-383/

Source: @econovisuals

8. Top 100 Political Donors in Presidential Election = $1.2B

Barrons Campaigns this election season have raised roughly $7.2 billion, with the top 100 donors pitching in $1.2 billion, according to campaign-finance tracker OpenSecrets. The contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump—and the hundreds of down-ballot races in Congress—is on track to be one of the most expensive campaigns ever. It is being increasingly bankrolled by a handful of billionaires and some hundred millionaires seeking to bend the U.S. and the regulations that govern it to their will.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-harris-election-campaign-billionaires-megadonors-6cf28b0c?mod=past_editions

9. Mental menu: Your food choices may be causing anxiety and depression

By The Conversation  Optimizing mood with food

The most obvious way to stabilize blood sugar levels is to decrease sugar and carbohydrate intake. However, this is not the only way. Research has proven that simple changes can drastically mitigate volatile blood sugar fluctuations. Some strategies to stabilize blood sugar and optimize mood include:

  • Make low glycemic index carbohydrates such as parboiled rice, whole grain bread and al dente pasta dietary staples, and be mindful of how many high glycemic index carbohydrates you consume. I give my patients this guide to increase their awareness of the glycemic index of various carbohydrates.
  • Eat carbohydrates earlier in the day, such as breakfast or lunchtime, as opposed to later in the day, like dinner or, worse yet, as a nighttime snack. Our hormones follow a circadian rhythm, and carbs eaten earlier in the day produce a smaller blood sugar spike compared with carbs eaten later in the day.
  • Avoid eating carbohydrates on their own, such as snacking on a box of crackers or downing a bowl of rice. Always strive to combine carbohydrates with proteins such as beans, nuts, meat and fish, or with healthy fats such as olive oil and avocado. The combination of nutrients slows down the digestion of carbohydrates and thereby produces a smaller blood sugar spike.
  • Eat carbohydrates at the end of the meal, after eating vegetables and protein first. Just changing the order in which foods are eaten can drastically lower the blood sugar spike that comes after.
  • Eat a salad dressed with olive oil and vinegar prior to eating carbohydrates. The combination of vegetables, acid from the vinegar and fat from the olive oil, all work together to slow carbohydrate absorption and minimize the resultant blood sugar spike.

Mary Scourboutakos is a family medicine resident and nutrition expert at Eastern Virginia Medical School.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

https://studyfinds.org/food-choices-anxiety-depression

10. Circle of Competence-Farnam Street Blog

Mental Models

Circle of Competence 

“The first rule of competition is, you are more likely to win if you play where you have an advantage. Doing so requires a firm understanding of what you know and what you don’t know. Your circle of competence is your personal sphere of expertise, the area where your knowledge and skills are concentrated. It’s the domain where you have a deep understanding, where your judgments are reliable, and your decisions are sound. 

The size of your circle isn’t as important as knowing the boundaries. The wise person is the one who knows the limits of their knowledge, who can say with confidence, “This falls within my circle,” or “This is outside my area of expertise.” 

Operating within your circle of competence is a recipe for confidence and effectiveness. But venturing outside your circle of competence is a recipe for trouble. You’re like a sailor navigating unfamiliar waters without a map, at the mercy of currents and storms you don’t fully understand. This isn’t to say that you should never venture outside your circle. Learning new things, gaining new skills, and mastering new domains is one of the most beautiful things about life. 

Celebrate your expertise, but also acknowledge your limitations.” 

— Source: The *Updated* Great Mental Models v1: General Thinking Tools

https://fs.blog

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 22 2024

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Stock Buybacks on Track for Record Year

The Market Ear

https://themarketear.com/the-newsletter

2. The Small Cap Profit Recovery

Small cap EPS outlook. “The profits recovery has once again been pushed out another quarter – with 3Q S&P 600 y/y EPS growth now projected to be negative.”

Jill Carey Hall – BofA, h/t @mikezaccardi

3. Tech stocks dominate the list of hedge funds top 20 equity positions

Tech stocks currently account for 16% of hedge funds’ portfolios compared to 30% of the wider S&P 500 index by market value, the blog notes.

4. XLF: Financial Sector ETF – Chart Has Not Broken Uptrend Line Since Coming Out of 2008 Crisis

XLF Blue Trend Line Unbroken

www.stockcharts.com

5. Coca-Cola Took 13 Years to Recover from 1998 Highs

Kailash Concepts-The chart below shows the evolution of Coke’s market cap into its 1998 peak and a decade after. A full 10 years after it peaked in 1998, the company’s equity had fallen nearly 60 billion dollars. From the stock’s high in 1998, with dividends reinvested, a buyer of Coca-Cola stock did not break even until March of 2011. Nearly 13 years to breakeven on one of America’s most storied and safest blue-chips. A doubling of sales and a 233% increase in profits is what it took to overcome that hefty 1998 multiple.

Kailash Concepts, LLC – Behavioral Finance, Portfolio Strategy & Quantamental Tool Kits

6. Macy’s Chart at 1998 Levels

7. Will Sodium Replace Lithium in Batteries?

Natron Energy Announces Plans for $1.4 Billion Giga-Scale Sodium-Ion Battery Manufacturing Facility in North Carolina
Edgecombe County, NC facility to produce 24 GW of Natron’s revolutionary sodium-ion batteries annually, representing a 40x scale-up of current production capacityNatron to invest nearly $1.4 billion in the facility, supported in part by a North Carolina Job Development Investment Grant (JDIG), creating more than 1,000 high-quality local jobs and growing the state’s economy by $3.4 billion over the next 12 years
Partnership to meet the rapidly expanding demand for critical power, industrial and grid energy storage solutionsNatron’s high-performance sodium-ion batteries outperform lithium-ion batteries in power density and recharging speed, do not require lithium, cobalt, copper, or nickel, and are non-flammable
BUSINESS WIRE)–Natron Energy, Inc. (“Natron” or “the Company”), a global leader in sodium-ion battery technology, today announced plans to build the first sodium-ion battery gigafactory in the United States. The facility will be located in Edgecombe County, NC, and is expected to produce 24GW of Natron’s revolutionary sodium-ion batteries annually at full capacity. Natron’s sodium-ion batteries offer higher power density, more cycles, a domestic U.S. supply chain, and unique safety characteristics over other battery technologies.
“North Carolina’s momentum in the clean energy economy reaches epic proportions with today’s news”
The nearly 1.2 million sq. ft. facility, located at the 437-acre Kingsboro megasite, will represent a total investment of nearly $1.4 billion from Natron Energy, facilitated in part by a Job Development Investment Grant (JDIG) approved by the state’s Economic Investment Committee earlier today. Today’s news was announced by Governor Roy Cooper at an Edgecombe County event attended by Natron executives, North Carolina Commerce Secretary Machelle Baker Sanders, and a number of local officials. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240815622233/en/Natron-Energy-Announces-Plans-for-1.4-Billion-Giga-Scale-Sodium-Ion-Battery-Manufacturing-Facility-in-North-Carolina

LIT Chart- I have shared this chart many times on way down

8. Population Turns Negative in China

Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management
Population growth in China has now turned negative. This is important because a growing labor force used to be a strong driver of growth in China. Combined with falling home prices and ongoing trade wars with Europe and the US, the headwinds to growth in China are intensifying. One implication for markets is continued downward pressure on commodity prices.

9. Labor Day Travel Seen Climbing 9% After Record US Summer

Bloomberg By Antonia Mufarech  
Traffic on highway 101 in San Francisco, California, US, on Thursday, June 29, 2023. More than 43 million motorists will drive 50 miles or more from their homes this Independence Day weekend, according to a forecast from AAA. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg) 

Bookings for domestic travel over the US Labor Day weekend are up 9% from last year, according to motor club AAA.

While the estimate only includes travel booked through AAA, the data adds to a sanguine picture for summer fuel demand in the US. Domestic travel was forecast to reach a record over the July 4 holiday week, and seen at a 20-year high for the Memorial Day weekend before that. Growth in travel has remained resilient in the US this year, supported by pump prices that are trending lower. Retail gasoline prices for Labor Day weekend are seen at $3.50 a gallon compared with $3.81 last year, said AAA. 
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/2024/08/19/labor-day-travel-seen-climbing-9-after-record-us-summer/

https://www.airlines.org/news-update/a4a-predicts-record-setting-summer-travel-season-for-u-s-airlines/

10. Warren Buffett Says True Success in Life Comes Down to Just 12 Key Decisions. Here’s Your Checklist -INC

https://www.inc.com/
EXPERT OPINION BY BILL MURPHY JR., FOUNDER OF UNDERSTANDABLY AND CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, INC. @BILLMURPHYJR
 
Warren Buffett is known for two things: making money and giving advice.
In his Berkshire Hathaway letter to shareholders last year, Buffett wrote that his success over 58 years was mainly the result of “about a dozen truly good decisions — that would be one every five years.”

He listed just a few of these decisions, but having written a lot about Buffett (and also having studied all of his shareholder letters), I believe you can use Buffett’s well-documented life as a framework to inspire just about anyone to make these kinds of truly good decisions.
So here’s a checklist: 12 life decisions that lead to success, using Buffett’s example:

1. The decision to nurture curiosity.

Let’s start with one that starts early — early in life, and early on a journey to success. In fact, it’s so early that I tend to think of this as something that people might do to help their kids find success, even before they know what the word means.
In Buffett’s case, I think we can point to two experiences, both of which happened before he turned 10 years old, that he says sparked real interest. The first was that he borrowed a book called One Thousand Ways to Make $1,000 from the Omaha public library and read it over and over.
The second was that once he started showing interest in finance and the stock market, his father took him on a tour of the New York Stock Exchange.

2. The decision to get started.

Curiosity is great, but the next step has to do with experimentation and execution. Buffett has talked a lot about the first businesses he founded — things like a paper route, detailing cars, and buying cases of Coca-Cola from his grandfather’s grocery store and selling the individual bottles at a markup.
Even at 93 years old, Buffett remembers many of these early ventures in detail — and he has a highly unusual advantage. In short, Buffett reports that he has saved a copy of every federal income tax return he ever filed, dating back to 1944.

3. The decision to find mentors.

Nobody does anything worthwhile alone. Most of us mere mortals need mentors to show us the way.
Buffett has talked at length about his first and most important mentor in business: the man he describes as his “investing hero,” Benjamin Graham, who died in 1976 at age 82. In fact, one of the reasons Buffett decided to attend Columbia University’s business school was that Graham was a professor there.

4. The decision to be bold.

Fortune favors the bold, they say. Actually, the Romans said it. Probably my favorite early Buffett story about boldness has to do with what he decided to do on a January weekend in 1951.
Having learned that Graham, his investing hero and professor, was chairman of Government Employees Insurance Company, or Geico, which was to Buffett at the time “an unknown company in an unfamiliar industry,” he decided to take the train to Washington, show up at the company, and ask about it.
Serendipitous result: Lorimer Davidson, who would later become CEO of Geico, gave Buffett a four-hour explanation and tour of the insurance industry. Fast-forward quite a few years, and Buffett’s Berkshire Hathway wound up owning Geico.

5. The decision to be healthy.

“You only get one mind and one body. And it’s got to last a lifetime,” Buffett famously told a group of students. “But if you don’t take care of that mind and that body, they’ll be a wreck 40 years later…. It’s what you do right now, today, that determines how your mind and body will operate 10, 20, and 30 years from now.”
The irony here is that Buffett has never been known particularly for exercise or healthy habits, and says he has “the diet of a 6-year-old.” Actually, there’s no way I’d let my 6-year-old consume as much candy, red meat, and can after can of Coca-Cola as Buffett does — but then again, he has lived to be 93 and counting.

6. The decision to nurture relationships.

One of the decisions Buffett listed in the shareholder letter that sparked this whole exercise was his decision to work with Charlie Munger, who passed away last year but was Buffett’s partner for decades.
But Buffett talks about many other crucial partners and relationships as well, among them Thomas Murphy (no relation to me, as far as I know) who was chair and chief executive officer of Capital Cities / ABC Inc., and Chuck Feeney, a billionaire turned intention-former billionaire. (We’ll talk more about Feeney below.)

7. The decision to plan for afterward.

Nobody lives forever, and once he began knocking on the door of nonagenarian status, Buffett began to acknowledge this himself — although he does like to joke about being an exception to the actuarial tables.
Finally, in 2021, he explained the succession plan for Berkshire Hathaway, which will be led by Greg Abel, who is currently the head of all non-insurance businesses at Berkshire Hathaway.

8. The decision to cut your losses.

So many people never learn this lesson, and as someone once put it, they wind up spending their entire lives in the wrong room rather than admit they might have picked an incorrect door.
In Buffett’s case, one of the big examples and decisions involved his acknowledgment, after years of trying, that the textile business — the core of Berkshire Hathaway’s business for more than its first 100 years — was no longer viable in the United States.

9. The decision to laugh.

Life is happier when you laugh more. And while Berkshire Hathaway is a serious business — what’s more serious than money, investments, and people’s futures? — it’s striking how often Buffett’s letters, speeches, and interviews are peppered with jokes.
He’s partial to the corny kind, and also to the bawdy kind that, if you heard your grandfather tell them, would leave you on the fence about whether to laugh or cringe. Here’s one from the 2011 shareholder letter that I don’t mind quoting:
A good underwriter needs an independent mindset akin to that of the senior citizen who received a call from his wife while driving home.
“Albert, be careful,” she warned, “I just heard on the radio that there’s a car going the wrong way down the interstate.”
“Mabel, they don’t know the half of it,” replied Albert. “It’s not just one car, there are hundreds of them.”

10. The decision to teach.

They call Buffett the Oracle of Omaha, and he clearly loves the role. In fact, there are so many moments in his letters and other communications in which he makes asides to offer advice or hard-learned lessons that teaching truly seems to be his second calling.
One of my favorite examples here is the advice he gave verbatim twice over the years, in both the 1987 and 2003 shareholder letters. (Maybe he thought the audiences had turned over sufficiently in the interim?)
Anyway, it’s this, and it really goes back to the first item on the list: “Develop your eccentricities when young.”

11. The decision to do nothing.

This one is important: Besides the limited number of very good decisions Buffett says he’s made, the other key to success is simply not to do anything when you don’t see any good option. Instead of the old adage, “Don’t just stand there, do something,” Buffett suggests the opposite: Don’t just do something, stand there!
Actually, let’s use his precise quote: “The trick is, when there is nothing to do, do nothing.”

12. The decision to give back.

This is where we get back to Chuck Feeney, who I mentioned all the way back in item No. 6 on this list. Feeney was a multi-billionaire who made it his life goal to give away all of his money.

It was Feeney’s example that inspired Buffett to team up with Bill Gates to launch the Giving Pledge, and get more than 200 other billionaires to sign it as well.

I write more about these kinds of decisions and insights in my free e-book, Warren Buffett Predicts the Future.
More than his wealth, more than his advice, more than his 12 decisions — many years from now, these are the kinds of things for which Buffett will be best remembered.