1. Gundlach Deck is Out…10 Year Taking Out 3% in 2017—End of 35 Year Bond Bull?

“Almost for sure we’re going to take out 3% on the 10-year in 2017,” Gundlach said. If we exceed 3% (not 2.6%) in 2017, it’s goodbye to the bull market because you would no longer have declining peaks in yields.

A 10-year above 3%, with the 30-year yield approaching 4%, would also be trouble for the equity market because they would start to look like ‘real’ yields to investors.

Gundlach said it’s not radical to forecast a 6% yield on the 10-year by 2020.

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http://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-gundlach-webcast-2017-outlook-just-markets-2017-1

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1.Munis See Big Outflows in 2016

Credit: The muni market capital outflows have been substantial, resulting in a rare loss for intermediate-maturity bonds.

Source: Barclays, @NickatFP, @joshdigga

See Huge Volume on Sell Off….Bars at Second Arrow.  Big Picture 5% Off Highs.

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1.China’s Reserves have Fallen by About $1Trillion

China is making it harder to short the Yuan and more difficult to take money out of the country, but time will tell if they can protect the currency forever. …If not, a free floating Yuan will be a new ball game for all currencies.http://www.barrons.com/articles/the-growing-threat-to-global-trade-a-currency-war-1483767171

 Longer-Term Look

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1.Yield Curve Steepening and Showing No Signs of Recession.

 The Yield Curve Reflects Good News

I find more reason for optimism in the yield curve – the plot of the yields on 3-month through 30-year Treasury securities. The yield curve has steepened since the election, and this is good news.

The slope of the yield curve has borne a consistent relationship with economic activity. The yield curve has predicted all U.S. recessions except one since 1950. Recessions, as you would expect, correlate positively with bear markets. When the yield curve flattens, or inverts, a recession usually looms and so does a bear market.

That’s not the case today. The yield curve is just the way we should like it – progressively higher with each maturity and upward sloping to the right. When the yield curve steepens, economic growth usually follows.

Yield Curve Slope

http://etfdailynews.com/2017/01/04/dow-20k-is-just-the-beginning-of-a-massive-rally-in-2017/

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1.2016–Russell 1000 Value +15.83% vs. Russell 1000 Growth +7.28%.

Since then, the iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (ticker: IWD) has returned 17%, versus 9.1% for the iShares Russell 1000 Growth (IWF). The last stretch of significant outperformance for value ended in 2006, and it was a whopper. Value beat growth by double-digit percentages in five out of seven years, starting with the 2000 dot-com stock bust.

http://www.barrons.com/articles/will-2017-be-the-year-of-the-trump-rooster-1483169072

finance.yahoo.com

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