2. Earnings Season Kicks Off …Expectations for Slowdown from Q2
SMH ETF 30 Points below highs.
4. Nuclear Production by Company
5. Exxon Mobil New All-Time Highs
6. Google Challenged in Search
WSJ By Suzanne Vranica and Miles Kruppa Amazon is expected to have 22.3% of the market this year, with 17.6% growth, compared with Google’s 50.5% share and its 7.6% growth. “This space has been ripe for a shake-up for a long period of time,” said Brendan Alberts, head of search and commerce at the ad-buying firm Dentsu. Google remains in an enviable position: far ahead of the pack in the search market, with plenty of resources to counter moves by its rivals. Still, advertisers are eager for more competition. “For the first time in probably 15 years, we will have viable alternatives to Google,” said Nii Ahene, a veteran digital-advertising executive.
7. Office Glut Update
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET The glut of vacant offices on the market for lease, as depicted by availability rates, rose to new records in many major office markets in Q3, despite pronouncements by landlords that the office glut has bottomed out. The availability rate is the office space on the market for lease either by the landlord directly or by a tenant as a sublease, expressed as a percentage of the total office market. Of the 15 office markets for which Savills released data today, these five had the biggest office gluts:
San Francisco: 36.6%
Atlanta: 30.6%
Dallas-Ft. Worth: 30.0%
Chicago: 29.4%
Houston: 29.0%
Of the 15 markets, 6 hit new records, and 1 matched its prior record:
San Francisco: 36.6%
Atlanta: 30.6%
Chicago: 29.4%
Los Angeles: 28.3%
Seattle: 28.2%
Silicon Valley: 27.6% matched prior record
Washington DC: 24.4%
Within a hair of their record were Dallas-Ft. Worth (30.0% v. 30.1% in Q1 and 29.8% in Q4 2023) and Philadelphia (25.2% in Q3 from 25.3% in Q1). The chart shows the availability rates at three different points in time: red = Q3 2024; purple = Q1 2021; gray = Q1 2019.
10. Two Questions You Should Ask About Any Piece of Market Information
The Noise Factory OCTOBER 8, 2024 / JOE WIGGINS What will the Fed do next? How will conflict in the Middle East impact the oil price? What does a new bout of stimulus mean for the Chinese Equity market? Is the US economy heading into a recession or reflation? Investors are trapped in a vortex of noise. We are compelled to engage with and react to a rotating cast of inescapably prominent and impossibly complex issues. This constant state of flux is the lifeblood of the investment industry but poison for clients. For most investors 99%, of what we see, hear and feel in financial markets is not just irrelevant to what we are trying to achieve, it actively makes it harder to make good decisions and attain our goals. Why is noise so ubiquitous and what can we do about it?
Critical to the success of any investor is the ability to cancel out the noise that surrounds us and focus on the elements that will have a material influence on our outcomes. Given the sheer complexity and chaos inherent in financial markets this can seem like an impossible task – how can we figure out what is significant?
There are two key criteria we can apply to help us identify harmful noise in financial markets (which is the vast majority of what we encounter). For any issue or event, we should ask two questions:
– Does it matter?
– Is it knowable?
Unless we can answer both in the affirmative, we can classify it as unhelpful noise.
Let’s take each in turn:
– Does it matter? Here we are seeking to understand whether the subject we are focusing on will actually matter to what we are trying to achieve. Let’s assume I have a 20-year investment horizon, will the next decision by the Fed have any obvious impact on my investment goals? Absolutely not. The same can be said for whatever geopolitical issue is the focus of our attention at any given point in time. If something is likely to have either no effect or a random influence on us meeting our investment objectives, then it is just noise. Spending time thinking about it is likely to leave us worse off.
Even if something does matter – we are confident that some variable or topic will have a material impact on our investments over the time horizons that matter to us – it can still be noise, because it also must be knowable.
– Is it knowable? Being confident that something actually matters is a pretty high hurdle for investment information, but even that is not sufficient. For it not to be noise, it must be knowable or predictable. Why? Well, let’s say I was certain that the near-term decisions of the Fed or the latest geopolitical issue would have an impact on meeting my investment objectives – this is only meaningful if I know or can predict the outcome of these things. I need to know both that the Fed decision matters and believe that I can predict it, otherwise, what am I going to do about it?
If that isn’t tough enough, there is another problem. We often need to know two things – both what is going to happen and how it will impact financial markets. Many wonderful (lucky) predictions about a particular event have been rendered worthless because someone got the second part wrong. Forecasting any future occurrence is usually a herculean task, adding on a prediction of how it will then influence something else (alongside all the other unforeseeable things that might also impact it) is getting us pretty close to impossible.
So, how can we tell what matters and what is knowable? Well, we can apply some simple tests.
Does it matter?
Test: If I had a crystal ball and knew something would occur in advance, would it change my investment decision making?
This is a useful test for long-term investors because most things really should not influence our choices. There is a danger, however, of being overconfident and believing that certain pieces of information will move markets in an obvious way. Imagine having some foresight of 2020 ‘Covid’ economic data and making investment decisions based on that – it probably would have ended badly.
Is it knowable?
Test: Is the information already known or is there evidence that people can accurately predict it?
The most obvious piece of information that is in some way knowable is the valuation of an asset. For example, when bond yields were close to zero we didn’t need to make predictions about future returns being low – we knew this. Unfortunately, most financial market relevant activity isn’t knowable, it is instead reliant on making bold predictions about the future, which in complex adaptive systems is quite the ask.
Bringing these aspects together creates a simple framework for addressing the issue of noise in financial markets and the many problems it causes investors:
6. Past Chinese Stock Market Rallies Have Been Powered by Stimulus….KWEB Chinese Internet ETF +50% in One Month.
Of the five major stock-market rallies in China in the past quarter-century, three were powered by stimulus. Stocks during those episodes notched trough-to-peak gains of between 50% and 100%, suggesting this rally could have much further to run if policymakers follow through with meaningful stimulus and property-market support, Thomas Gatley, China strategist at Gavekal Dragonomics, wrote in a report Monday. By Rebecca Feng and Jason Douglashttps://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-manufacturing-gauge-signals-continued-weakness-in-economy-3a729f33
Josh Edelson/Getty Images In a shocking turn of events, someone was able to use a new high-powered tech product for evil. Two Harvard students paired the Ray-Ban Meta Smart Glasses with facial recognition software to rapidly identify strangers and compile their personal information from the internet to highlight the privacy concerns that are getting unboxed with easily accessible consumer tech. In a video posted to X, AnhPhu Nguyen and Caine Ardayfio explained how they built I-XRAY. The program uses the glasses to capture images of random people on campus and at a train station, identify them through a publicly accessible facial recognition search site like PimEyes, and then use a large language model (LLM) to trawl the web and compile the person’s information. Nguyen and Ardayfio could access people’s addresses, the names of their parents, and photos in mere minutes, and even approached unsuspecting people using the info they collected to make them think they had met before. The creators said they would not release the code for this program but created it to highlight how it’s possible to build invasive tech with recent advancements like smart glasses and LLMs.
When 404 Media approached Meta for comment about the project, it said that similar information gathering could be used with any camera.
Meta’s smart glasses have a small light that comes on when the wearer is recording, but many people report it being hard to see in crowded spaces and bright lighting outside.
Nguyen and Ardayfio said they chose the glasses specifically for their inconspicuousness.
Big picture: Searching through someone’s info online has been around since Facebook introduced poking, but with the right tools, like artificial intelligence, it’s easier, faster, and potentially more invasive.—MM
META Powers to New Highs.
8. U.S. Dollar has Best Week in Two Years
9. ‘It’s going to be a mess’: The flood insurance crisis following Helene’s wreckage
Only 2 percent of households in flooded parts of Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina can get insurance paymentss Cindy White looks over the devastation inside her home in North Carolina caused by Hurricane Helene. Only a tiny number of households in North Carolina have flood insurance. | Kathy Kmonicek/AP By Avery Ellfeldt Hundreds of thousands of people across parts of the Southeast will struggle to rebuild their homes after Hurricane Helene for one reason: Hardly anyone has flood insurance. In dozens of counties in Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina that were flooded by Helene, less than 1 percent of households have flood insurance through the federal program that sells almost all of the nation’s flood policies. “People never thought they would have a problem with flooding,” said Jimmy Isaacs, fire chief of Boone, North Carolina, a mountainous town in Watauga County, where less than 2.5 percent of households are insured. “It’s going to be a difficult recovery.” Helene is highlighting the major gaps in U.S. flood insurance and their consequences as climate change amplifies flood risk both from coastal storm surge and rapidly overflowing rivers in Boone and other inland areas. Flood insurance is sold separately from homeowners’ insurance, which typically does not cover flood damage. The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Flood Insurance Program covers 4.6 million homes and businesses. But the overwhelming number of people who don’t live on the coasts do not purchase coverage either because they aren’t required to, can’t afford to or don’t think they’re at risk. The result is a dangerously low number take it, leaving millions of people without financial protection from floods and their increasing damage. States flooded by Helene exemplify the problem. In North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia, just 2 percent of households in counties that are declared a federal disaster area have FEMA flood insurance, according to a POLITICO’s E&E News analysis of agency records. In South Carolina, just 0.5 percent of the 770,000 households in disaster counties have FEMA insurance. In North Carolina, 0.8 percent of households in disaster counties have FEMA insurance. In Georgia, 8.5 percent of properties in disaster counties have FEMA insurance, though the figure is inflated by a large number of policies in coastal Chatham County, which includes Savannah. Excluding Chatham, 0.7 percent of households in disaster counties have FEMA insurance In Florida, which has one of the highest rates of FEMA coverage, 24 percent of households in disaster counties are covered. The next disaster after Helene: Almost no victims had flood insurance. – POLITICO
10. Twenty questions-Seth’s Blog
Your next project might feel like a calling, but it’s a choice. A choice that will have an impact on each day you spend on it. There are no right answers here, but before you fall in love with a business or an organization, it may pay to think about these and other options that are built in:
Are you selling to consumers?
Are you raising money?
Do you serve one person at a time or does a committee have to agree?
Is there a network effect to the work you do?
Is the margin on each item low?
What’s the lifetime value of a new patron, customer or partner?
Is the work time sensitive?
Do you meet with people in person?
Are you answering RFPs or are people seeking you out by name?
Is price or yield or efficiency the dominant metric in making a choice?
Will you create value with your personal effort or by managing others?
How will people find out about what you do?
Is accuracy the most important part of what you deliver?
Can a competitor who works far more hours have a big advantage over you?
What’s the effluent, waste or side effects of what you create?
Are you likely to spend time working with peers you like?
Are you likely to respect your customers?
How much time after you begin before you expect your metrics to be positive?
Is the learning curve steep?
After you’ve learned how to do this, does it become boring?
Pick your customers, pick your future. PS Joel recommended this post from fourteen years ago. https://seths.blog/
10. There Are Two Types of Happiness—But Only One Lasts
Psychology Today-Most of us are hooked on the first type. Here’s what to do instead-Emma Seppälä Ph.D.
KEY POINTS
Hedonic happiness is all the pleasures of the senses—it’s fun but short-lived.
Eudaimonic happiness is the pleasure you get from helping others, meaning, and purpose.
The right balance of both can lead to a life that is both fun and fulfilling.
There are two forms ofhappiness, but only one leads to lasting joy. Most of us are hooked on the first and forget about the second, leaving us with subpar levels of well-being. The good news? You can do something about it.
The Allure of Hedonic Happiness
Hedonic happiness—thinksex, drugs, and rock ‘n’ roll—captures all the pleasures of the senses: food, money, even fame and popularity. These experiences provide a brief high, followed by a dip that leaves you craving more.
We often link happiness directly to pleasure, imagining it as a series of thrilling, fun, or sensual moments. While hedonic happiness offers delightful bursts of joy, let’s be honest: these moments are short-lived. Once the initial thrill fades, we’re left searching for the next high, whether it’s from a favorite movie or an extravagant meal—the “hedonic treadmill” of chasing fleeting pleasures.
Moreover, we’re often sold the idea that happiness can be bought—that a new gadget or a luxurious vacation will fill the void. However, people in more materialistic societies frequently report feeling less fulfilled, sometimes even more depressed. This highlights the trap of hedonic happiness: while it can be enticing, it often leads to a sense of emptiness when the pleasures fade. So, how can we bring more lasting happiness into our lives?
The Depth of Eudaimonic Happiness
Eudaimonic happinessshifts the focus from personal pleasure to something greater—connection, service, and a sense of purpose. This kind of happiness nourishes us and contributes to a lasting sense of contentment.
Giving to others can even increase well-being beyond what we experience when spending money on ourselves. A revealing experiment published in the journalScienceby Professor Elizabeth Dunn at the University of British Columbia showed that participants who received a sum of money and were instructed to spend it on others felt significantly happier than those who spent it on themselves.Neurosciencestudies by Jordan Grafman and others also show that the act of giving can be more pleasurable than receiving.
This finding holds true even for infants! A recent study by Lara Aknin and colleagues at the University of British Columbia demonstrated that even children as young as two find greater happiness in giving treats to others than in receiving treats themselves. Remarkably, this trend is observed worldwide, regardless of a country’s wealth. A different study showed a strong correlation between the amount of money spent on others and personal well-being—regardless of income, social support, perceived freedom, and national corruption.
The Power of Compassion
Eudaimoniadoesn’t mean you have to spend money on others. Any form of support or help can contribute to this happiness. One reason compassion may boost our well-being is that it broadens our perspective beyond ourselves. Research shows thatdepressionandanxietyare linked to a state of self-focus—a preoccupation with “me, myself, and I.” When you do something for someone else, that self-focus shifts to a state of other-focus. Think of the last time you helped someone; chances are, it made you feel great, no matter how you felt before that.
Moreover, cultivating compassion can enhance our sense of connection to others. One telling study showed that a lack of social connection is a greater detriment to health than obesity,smoking, or high blood pressure. People who feel more connected to others have lower rates of anxiety and depression and enjoy higherself-esteem. They tend to be moreempathetic, trusting, and cooperative, creating a positive feedback loop of social, emotional, and physical well-being.
A study by Barbara Fredrickson and Steve Cole reveals an intriguing truth: individuals who derive happiness primarily from hedonic pursuits have inflammation levels similar to those experiencing chronicstress. In contrast, people who find joy through meaningful connections and a sense of purpose—what we call eudaimonic happiness—show significantly lower inflammation levels. This suggests that deeper fulfillment provides a protective effect on our well-being.
Finding Your Balance
Consider happiness like a meal: a decadent dessert may provide instant pleasure, but a wholesome meal leaves you feeling energized and satisfied. If we chase only short-term pleasures, we might feel excited for a moment but ultimately drained. Eudaimonic happiness, on the other hand, fosters deeper joy that lasts.
Research by Ryff and Singer (2008) highlights that integrating both hedonic and eudaimonic elements into our lives leads to better psychological health and life satisfaction. They suggest that balancing these two forms of happiness enhances our overall well-being, creating a richer experience of life. Both hedonic and eudaimonic pursuits have their place; they enrich our lives in different ways, and finding the right balance is key.
Simple Steps to Cultivate Meaning
Connect with Loved Ones: Make time for family and friends. Share meaningful conversations and experiences that strengthen your bonds.
Give Back: Look for opportunities to serve your community. Volunteering can provide a profound sense of purpose and fulfillment.
ExploreSpirituality: Whether through organized religion, personal reflection, or an appreciation of nature and art, nurturing your spiritual side can add depth to your life.
PracticeGratitude: Regularly reflect on what you’re thankful for. This shift in focus can help you appreciate what truly matters.
Seek Growth: Invest in self-discovery and personal development. Pursue activities that challenge you and bring a sense of accomplishment.
Embracing a Holistic View of Happiness
Enjoy both the thrill of pleasure and the richness of meaning. By embracing this balance, you can navigate the beautiful landscape of happiness, creating a life that’s not just fun—but profoundly fulfilling.
9. According to Barrons cover story this weekend…GLP-1 sales at $50B and still growing 50% CAGR per year, with global penetration rates in low single digits.
Grandview Research The global GLP-1 receptor agonist market size was estimated at USD 36.79 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 21.65% from 2024 to 2030. The launch of new GLP-1 receptor agonist products, a strong product pipeline for both diabetes & obesity applications, and the high efficacy of these drugs are anticipated to propel the market. For instance, in November 2023, Eccogen and AstraZeneca signed an exclusive licensing agreement for ECC5004, an investigational oral GLP-1 receptor agonist to treat patients with type 2 diabetes, obesity, and cardio-metabolic conditions. Phase I trial preliminary results have demonstrated a distinct clinical profile for ECC5004, with good tolerability and encouraging reductions in body weight and glucose at all tested dose levels compared to placebo.
Retraced all of 2024 gains before this week’s rally, still well below 2024 highs.
7. Biotech Sideways for 5 Years….New Venture Rounds Picking Up
Biotech ETF still below 2021 highs.
Venture Mega Rounds Returning WSJ By Brian GormleyVenture mega-rounds are on the rise in biotechnology as the outlook for the industry brightens. Sixty-eight U.S. and European biotech startups raised venture financings of $100 million or more this year through Aug. 31, putting this year on track to at least approach the 106 mega-rounds closed in 2021, the highest number on record, according to Silicon Valley Bank.
Robert Herjavec Emmy Award Winner 🏆 Entrepreneur | Investor | Cybersecurity Expert Lead Shark on Shark Tank 🦈 Author | Mentor | Car Enthusiast Constant, Forward Momentum 🚀
I have now been doing Shark Tank for almost 20 years. Kevin O’Leary and I started with the show in Canada (called Dragon’s Den) and did it there for about five years. Now, we have been doing it in the United States for 17 years. I have also done two seasons of Shark Tank in Australia. I love the show. I love how it inspires people and teaches everyone the language and opportunity of business. I get a lot of motivation and energy from all the people that come and pitch to us, but I also get a lot of energy and knowledge from the other Sharks and Dragons. These are some of the most amazing businesspeople I have had the pleasure to meet, and I get to hang out with them. How cool is that? This is Mark’s last season on the show—while we will miss him, the power of the show will certainly continue. It has made me reflect on all the amazing things I have learned from Mark. Mark is a big guy—in all things—and his presence fills every room. I was probably not confident enough in myself at the time to not let that intimidate me. Over the years, I have gained a massive amount of respect for him. He is a great guy, not just in business, but also fun, family-loving, pure of heart, highly competitive, and a good friend. I will never forget, one time when I was going through some difficult times, the first Shark to call me and check in was Mark. I will never forget that, and if I haven’t said thank you for that, let me say it here. But let me say thank you more for all the valuable lessons I have been fortunate enough to learn from you. And no, I am not paying you for them, Mark! You simply get my undying gratitude.
Beware the one in the T-shirt (not the one in the suit) I remember when I first met Mark, I was surprised at how “badly” he dressed. I had pictured a guy worth that kind of money in designer outfits—not necessarily in a suit and tie, but maybe some casual Brunello Cucinelli. In fact, I think at one point I said to Mark, “Why do you dress so badly?” (jokingly), and he said (not jokingly), “Because I can.” I didn’t get it at the time, but he was right. He has nothing to prove, and most rooms he walks into, people are selling to him. When you’re the one being sold to, you can wear whatever the hell you want. Chances are, if you walk into a room and there’s a bunch of suits, beware the person wearing the T-shirt. They probably worked their ass off to get to a point where they can wear whatever they want, and the odds are the suits work for the person in the T-shirt.
Lesson: Everyone has a thing—Mark’s thing isn’t clothes or cars. Never judge someone by their “thing” because it may not be your thing. I stopped having to wear a suit a long time ago, but I still like a good Tom Ford suit. When I first started out, I worked for six months part-time at a high-end men’s shop so I could get a discount to buy my first quality suit. Dressing well means something to me. I love cars, Mark couldn’t care less. Cars excite me; to Mark, they’re just basic transportation. Everyone has their own thing. Not sure I’ll ever be the Mark Cuban T-shirt-wearing guy. The difference is, I don’t wear clothes to impress anyone anymore because I don’t need to. My advice: when you’re starting out, dress to impress—until you’re the one they need to impress. It’s fine to be the T-shirt guy, but until you “make it,” show some respect and dress for the situation.
Expect to Win – Always One day between shooting pitches, I was working on a big deal and asked Mark, “Every time you do a deal or compete, do you expect to win?” Mark, without hesitation, said, “Yes, I expect to win every time.” I then asked, “What if it doesn’t work out?” He simply said, “It will.” I loved that—absolute sheer confidence in the results, and more importantly, in himself. Another friend of mine (and guest Shark) wrote a book on this recently called Burn the Boats. It’s basically about abandoning Plan B and only focusing on Plan A. Even having a Plan B gives you the option of not winning at Plan A. This was such an “aha” moment for me. I have to admit, it wasn’t my natural mindset. I wasn’t born with that level of confidence—it’s something I had to work on very hard. My background was as an immigrant—shy, poor, came here on a boat, everyone made fun of me, etc. My mindset was, “I am determined to win, but I should have a backup plan.” Maybe this is an immigrant thing—the fear of going back to where you came from. Lots of Plan Bs my entire life.
Lesson: I think this thought pattern works for some people, and I think it can be very risky. You have to expect to win, but I believe when you’re building a large-scale business, you have to take calculated risks. I still believe you should never make a bet that risks losing the entire farm. But I have to admit, as I’ve been more successful, while I may not have bet the entire farm, I’ve certainly bet the horses, cows, and chickens to grow my farm. It’s a balance, and it depends on where you are in life. Along these lines, one day I asked Mark, “Did you always expect to be rich?” He said, “When I was 12, I knew I was going to be rich.” I loved that answer and admired it because it was so different from my upbringing. When I was 12, I didn’t even think about being rich—I just didn’t want to be poor. Small distinction in some ways, but huge in others.
The Bigger You Get – The Bigger the Bullseye on Your Back As successful as Mark is, his work ethic is still unbelievable. The man works his ass off. You’d think that, at his level, you wouldn’t have to work that hard, but it’s absolutely not true. There’s a fallacy that you can relax and coast at a certain point—and that is usually the point of decline. Remember when you started your business? You were the little guy, taking on the world. It was exciting, it was fun, and you wanted to take the big guy down. Well, once you get bigger and become “the guy,” someone wants to take you down. And that someone is willing to work 24/7 to do so.
Lesson: To stay on top, you have to work like someone is trying to steal it from you—because the odds are, someone is. And they’re willing to work 24 hours a day to do it—are you?
Time Kills All Deals We had been shooting the show for three years in the U.S. even before Mark got on board. Obviously, he was very wealthy, but just having more money than another Shark wasn’t going to win deals. The people coming on the show need to get the amount of money they’re asking for, and in really good deals, we all become very competitive. Before Mark, we had all found ways to compete with each other—I’m a better Shark for this or that reason. Mark came on and introduced something new—speed. I remember the very first time he did it, he made an offer and said, “I’m putting you on the 24-second shot clock.” I hate to admit it (not being a big basketball guy), but I didn’t even know what that meant. For those of you also not basketball fans, in basketball, you have 24 seconds to make a shot when you have the ball. If you don’t shoot during that time, you lose possession, and the opportunity is gone—the 24-second shot clock. The pitcher was confused—did he really mean it? What was going on? The rest of the Sharks all chimed in. I forget whether he actually got that deal, but he used it again many times in other deals, and it usually worked. He also brought in the idea of just taking the deal—quickly. You’d have a couple of Sharks negotiating for a deal. One would say, “I’ll give you $200K for 20%,” and another would say, “I’ll give you $200K for 18%,” and so on. The pitcher would respond, “Would you do $200K for 16%?”—and Mark, out of the blue, would say, “I’ll take that deal if you say yes right now.” And more often than not, it would work.
Lesson: Speed forces people to make a decision, and there’s the old saying: time kills all deals. When you force someone to make a decision quickly, you often get to see what they’re actually thinking. Most people have a hard time thinking that fast under stress, and their true self comes out. The other benefit is, if you aren’t going to get a deal, it’s better to know today than to waste time tomorrow.
Two Airplanes Are Better Than One – But Why Do You Care? Most of the Sharks were doing an event at a high school one time (kids absolutely love our show), and one of the kids asked me, “Why do you still work so hard?” I was trying to be funny (believe it or not, all of us think we’re pretty funny), and said, “So I can buy a bigger jet than Mark.” I was joking and being flippant and cute. Mark said, “Which jet?”—meaning he had multiple jets. It kind of shut me up. If I’m being honest, it threw me for a loop. Not only did I realize my answer was stupid, but more importantly, it made me realize—how in the world was I ever going to afford a bigger jet? I had absolutely worked my ass off to get to the point of buying a plane, but Mark’s plane was twice the size of mine, and not only that, he had multiple planes. That thought just didn’t compute for me. And then it hit me—why do I care? Did I work all this time, and sacrifice so much, to buy a plane, a car, more stuff? What was I doing? And why did it bother me? And most importantly, why do I care—because no one else does. But it really made me think. I had never been that money-driven—I was always success-driven. And now that I had some success and some nice stuff, I cared about other people’s stuff? It made me step back and realize I had lost my way. As well as I was doing, I had lost the purpose and the focus that got me to where I was. It wasn’t about the stuff—it was about doing great things and having purpose. It wasn’t about competing with Mark or anyone else—it was about being the best I could be. Living to my potential—no one else’s. I had lost that bearing in my compass, and that simple answer from Mark brought me back—quickly.
Lesson: Know your why. There will always be someone with a bigger car, bigger jet, nicer watch, whatever. But it’s not about that—and it never was for me. Don’t get me wrong, I love nice and fun stuff, but I didn’t work so hard just to get nicer stuff. I had purpose, and I had clarity in that goal: take care of my family, help others, inspire people, make the lives of the people who work with me better. I wanted to make an impact on the world. Those are things that last—the stuff comes and goes. Never forget your purpose—there is no greatness without great purpos
The Right and Wrong Time to Sell a Business A number of years ago, someone offered me an enormous amount of money to buy my business. When I say enormous, I mean well over $100 million—all cash. Back then, that was a lot of money to me, and I was focused on the money and tempted to take it. I happened to be hanging out with Mark, and I told him about it—and asked whether I should take it or not. His answer was, “You should only sell your business in three cases: 1) You don’t want to do it anymore; 2) You don’t think it can continue to grow; or 3) The money will fundamentally change your life.” That was it—knee-jerk answer. I couldn’t stop thinking about it. Did I want to do it? Hell yeah, I loved my business. I believed in it and wanted to keep doing it. His point was: if you’re not 100% into it, business is so competitive, someone else will kick your ass because they will be 100% into it. Did I believe we could continue to grow? Absolutely. My business is cybersecurity, and at the time (and still do), I felt that it was just the tip of the iceberg. Would the money change my life? No, not really. Don’t get me wrong, for a poor immigrant kid, that kind of money was extraordinary. But would it change my life? I was already richer than I had hoped for when I started—I’d just be more rich with the money. And I loved my business and woke up every day ready to fight the good fight. I didn’t do it, and of course, I regretted it as soon as the buyer walked away! But guess what? Two weeks later, I didn’t care. We kept growing and adding value, and lo and behold, a few years later, I ended up selling a piece of the business for many hundreds of millions more than someone was going to pay me for the entire company. And then I kept going and built a $1 billion company with the remainder.
Lesson: Know when to sell and be brutally honest with yourself. People often ask me, “Which sale changed your life the most?” I sold my first business for $600K, my second business for $30 million, and my last business, I sold a piece of it for many hundreds of millions. Which one changed my life the most? The first one—the $600K. I was such a nervous, scared kid, but selling that business for $600K in my 20s allowed me to pay off my mortgage and own a house. As an immigrant, that was my parents’ dream—they worked a lifetime to pay off their house, and I did it in my 20s. That gave me the freedom to take bigger risks, and the courage to do so.
Time is More Important Than Money Mark says this all the time, but in fairness, so do most of my ultra-successful friends. Time is the only commodity you can’t get back or buy more of—and it’s true. Another lady I admire, Codie Sanchez, said, “You’re young and you’re broke, but every old billionaire would trade spots with you in a second.” And it’s true. I’m old—I don’t feel it, and I probably don’t look it, but I’ve already lived longer than both my parents. Time. I could always make more money, but I cannot make more time. Don’t waste what you’ve been given. This one, I very much believe. Do it now—that trip you wanted to take, that company you wanted to start, that person you wanted to ask out—do it now. A life lived with regret is a life wasted. We are all here for a limited amount of time—make it worthwhile. Make it great. And by the way, if you don’t love your business and you’re doing it just to get more stuff, you’re probably wasting time.
Lesson: You can’t make more time, but you can make more money. Be wise about where you spend your time, and learn to say NO. Odds are, there are far too many time vampires in your life right now
Once Everyone Knows the Answer, the Opportunity is Probably Gone Have you ever been wrong when everyone else was right? How did that make you feel? On the flip side, have you ever been right when everyone else was wrong? Mark was one of the first people to stream basketball games on the internet. At the time, that seemed like a not very good idea, considering you could do that for free on the radio. Everyone said he was wrong. Mark saw the opportunity and ended up selling that business for $6 billion. By then, everyone knew he was right. I never met Howard Schultz, but I did buy his old plane. Incredible attention to detail. I flew into Seattle one time to inspect his plane. I landed, and when the pilots opened the door, I walked onto the tarmac, and there was his assistant holding a silver tray with a cup of Starbucks coffee (how I like it—she had called my assistant ahead of time to find out) and a card from Howard. She said, “Mr. Schultz apologizes that he wasn’t able to meet you in person; he had to go to China, but he sends his card and asks that you call him anytime convenient for you.” Amazing level of detail. I read a story one time that Howard went to 300 VCs to get funding for Starbucks—a coffee shop where people would hang out and pay a premium for coffee—when there were already thousands of coffee shops. Everyone thought he was wrong. He thought he was right. Howard is now worth many billions of dollars, and Starbucks is a $100 billion company. When I started my first business, I thought large companies would need to protect their employees online. Clients used to say to me, “We don’t allow internet access for users for personal stuff. We don’t need security.” I said, “You can’t stop people from accessing information, and you do need it.” Many people thought I was wrong, but I was right, and I created a billion-dollar business out of it.
Lesson: Get comfortable with being the contrarian, because that is usually where the opportunity is. To create great wealth and great value, you are probably going to make bets that others cannot see. And sometimes you are going to be wrong. But most successful people are more concerned about creating value than fitting in. It’s OK to be wrong—you only need to be right once. And when you’re right, let your winnings run.
There Are No Participation Trophies – Trophies Are Only for Winners Mark is a highly competitive guy—in all things. One time, after a particularly heated and competitive negotiation for a deal against a couple of other Sharks, I asked him what he liked about the deal. He simply said, “Not sure, I just wanted to mess with the other Shark and win the deal.” If there’s a push-up contest, he wants to compete and win. Basketball—he loves the competition, but he wants to win. He loves to compete in all things. I had a guy that worked for me who was a huge Dirk Nowitzki fan, and it was his dream to meet him. We happened to be in Dallas for a game, and I reached out to Mark to see if he could arrange it. He said, “No problem, but not before the game; I want the guys focused on winning.” Winning first—always.
Lesson: If you’re going to play the game, play to win. And in order to win, you have to love to compete. Business isn’t flag football. It’s not feely, fluffy, touchy—it’s full-on, contact. I used to have a saying behind my desk: “Every day, someone wakes up with the sole intention of kicking your ass.” Keep that in mind.
You Only Need to Be Right Once People often think that you have to win all the time in business, that you go from one win to another. Mark always says you only need to win once—and that’s all people will remember. And it’s true—no one remembers all the times I failed; they only remember my wins.
Lesson: Business is actually survival from one setback to another, constantly fighting to stay in the game. But here’s the beauty of life—you only need to win once. People remember Mark’s sale for $6 billion, people remember the Mavs winning the NBA championship. People don’t remember all the crappy seasons, all the setbacks. You just have to stay in the game and live to fight another day. And never forget—fortune favors the bold, but sometimes fortune just favors the lucky. And if you survive long enough, why can’t you get lucky?
