TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 29, 2024

1. 2022 Once a Generation Experience?  Stock and Bonds Both Down Teens


2. Seasonality Favorable


3. S&P Has Not Had Two Down Days in a Row for 30 Sessions

The chart -Marketwatch 
Investor buy-the-dip mentality has been on show of late. The chart from Jason Goepfert at Sentimentrader shows how the S&P 500 has not had two down days in a row for 30 sessions. When the stock benchmark has the temerity to register a negative day investors push it up the next.  “This is one of the longest streaks in its history, with the Nasdaq not far behind,” says Goepfert. Similar streaks of buy-the-dip activity preceded gains over the next 6-12 months almost without fail, he notes.

Source: Sentimentrader
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/theres-a-generational-opportunity-for-investors-in-this-sector-says-jpmorgan-a82c6c5d?mod=home-page


4. Tesla Forward P/E 81x vs. NVDA 35x

Tesla hitting resistance in chart


5. Peak Earnings Week

Dave Lutz Jones Trading
-This is arguably “Peak Earnings Week”
 with 34% of IWM’s Market Cap, 31% of SPY’s and 30% of QQQs reporting


6. DJT Media Now +185% in One Month


7. Sales of Existing Homes Back to Early 1990’s Levels…Inventory Moving Back to 2016 Levels

Wolf Street Blog

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/10/23/demand-destruction-for-existing-homes-sales-in-2024-to-plunge-below-4-million-homes-lowest-since-1995-as-supply-spikes/


8. Manufacturing Reshoring -Breaks Down to Sub-Sectors

From Barry Ritholtz Blog
The US manufacturing construction boom is massive

Source: @Joseph_Politano


9. Poor sleep in early midlife years could mean higher dementia risk: Study

by Anna Kutz

  • Study compared baseline sleep data with MRI scans taken years later
  • Having more ‘poor sleep characteristics’ linked to dementia development
  • Daytime sleepiness, early morning wakeups are two characteristics

(NewsNation) — Those tossing and turning throughout their early midlife years may be more susceptible to dementia as they age, researchers found.
The new study, published Wednesday in the journal Neurology, analyzed 589 people’s brain scans for a connection between sleep quality in people in their 40s and their brain age later in life.
Researchers found a “dose-response relationship” between the two factors, with those who reported more poor sleep characteristics at 40 showing an advanced brain age in MRIs obtained 15 years later.
Poor sleep characteristics include:

  • Bad sleep quality
  • Difficulty initiating sleep
  • Difficulty maintaining sleep
  • Early morning awakening
  • Daytime sleepiness

Patients who reported two or three characteristics had a brain age that was 1.6 years older than people who only reported one characteristic, which made up roughly 70% of the pool.
However, those with more than three characteristics — around 8% — showed a brain age 2.6 years older than their counterparts.
When will the next COVID, flu surge start? Experts weigh in 
“Sleep problems have been linked in previous research to poor thinking and memory skills later in life, putting people at higher risk for dementia,” study author Dr. Clémence Cavaillès told MedPage Today. “Our study which used brain scans to determine participants’ brain age, suggests that poor sleep is linked to nearly three years of additional brain aging as early as middle age.”
“Advanced brain aging is associated with cognitive decline and Alzheimer’s-related atrophy patterns,” Cavaillès added. “Therefore, poor sleep may be an important target for early interventions aimed at preventing neurocognitive decline, even before amyloid and tau accumulation begins.”
The researchers used CARDIA, a long-term federal study of cardiovascular disease, to obtain baseline data. As the characteristics were self-reported, study leads acknowledged that some people’s sleep data could have been misreported.

Tags  https://thehill.com/homenews/4956431-poor-sleep-dementia-risk/


10. Emotional Intelligence

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 28, 2024

1. Hedge Funds Underweight U.S. Stocks

HFs vs. US equities. “Hedge funds remain significantly U/W US equities vs the market benchmark.”

Goldman Sachs via Zero Hedge


2. History of S&P After 6 Straight Weeks of Positive Returns

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


3. Total Crypto Market Cap $2 Trillion…Equal to GOOGL…Smaller than MSFT and AAPL

https://www.allstarcharts.com/2024-02-28/crypto-market-cap-hits-2-trillion-dollars


4. Gold vs. Bitcoin Market Cap

Investing in the Web Blog

Cryptocurrency Statistics (2024)


5. Not All Crypto is Created Equal -Bespoke

In the crypto space, Bitcoin and Ethereum are considered two of the most credible with market caps of $1.3 trillion and $300 billion, respectively. While there is a tendency for many investors/speculators to lump the two together as highly correlated to each other, that has been far from the case over the last several months. Until mid-summer, Bitcoin and Ethereum followed similar paths, but since then, the paths of the two have diverged. The chart below shows the YTD performance of both cryptos and as recently as July 15th, both were up an identical 50% YTD. Since then, though, Ethereum has given up most of its YTD gains while Bitcoin has added modestly to its rally

Given the divergence between the two, the ratio of bitcoin to Ethereum has widened to just under 27 which is a level not seen in more than three years. As shown in the chart below, this is still half of where the ratio was in early 2021 (it was even higher than that in 2000), but in the short term, Bitcoin has become the “Mag 1” of the crypto space.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/not-all-crypto-is-created-equal


6. The Bottom 50% of Americans Making Gains

From Eric Soda – Spilled Coffee Blog

https://www.spilledcoffee.co/


7. Tesla’s Energy Business is Booming


8. Why countries are seeking to build “sovereign AI”-Sherwood

Nvidia’s CEO says nations can’t afford to miss out on this technology, but an AI created and controlled by the government could be dangerous.Jon Keegan The King of Denmark just “plugged in” his country’s very own supercomputer, with NvidiaNVDA $141.06 (0.75%) CEO Jensen Huang by his side. 
The country’s new AI system is named “Gefion,” after a goddess from Danish mythology, and it’s powered by 1,528 of Nvidia’s popular H100 GPUs. 
Denmark’s new supercomputer is an example of what Nvidia calls “sovereign AI,” which the company defines as “a nation’s capabilities to produce artificial intelligence using its own infrastructure, data, workforce and business networks.” But for countries seeking to rewrite history and control the information its citizens access, the movement toward sovereign AI comes with serious concerns.
Huang said at the announcement:
“What country can afford not to have this infrastructure, just as every country realizes you have communications, transportation, healthcare, fundamental infrastructures — the fundamental infrastructure of any country surely must be the manufacturer of intelligence.”  
Selling its powerful AI GPUs and computing infrastructure to governments is a lucrative new business for the company. Nvidia and its partners have already sold AI systems to IndiaJapanFranceItalyNew Zealand, and Switzerland, as well as countries with histories of human rights abuses like Singapore and UAE. In Nvidia’s Q2 2025 earnings press release, Huang cited sovereign AI as one of multiple future “multibillion-dollar vertical markets.”
Nvidia’s pitch to governments argues that building their own AI systems is a strategic move, helping secure their own supply of advanced-computing resources for its scientists, researchers, and domestic industries. 

https://sherwood.news/tech/why-countries-are-seeking-to-build-sovereign-ai/?utm_source=chartr&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=chartr_20241027


9. 2025 Federal Tax Brackets


10. A 3-Step Process to Break a Cycle of Frustration, Stress, and Fighting at Work-HBR

by Annie McKee

Summary.   When we have a conflict at work, most of us blame the other person — an incompetent boss, a passive aggressive colleague, or the resource-hoarding peer in another department. But having fewer disagreements at work starts with working on yourself…more

Bring to mind a conflict at work, and you’ll probably have the perpetrator in mind: your incompetent boss, that passive-aggressive colleague, or the resource-hoarding peer in another department. We spend an inordinate amount of time complaining about these people, avoiding them, and fighting with them. But if you want to manage conflict in the workplace, you can’t start with someone else. Usually there isn’t just one culprit, and if you want less fighting and a more enjoyable, productive workplace, you have to understand your own role in it and what you can do to break a vicious cycle that starts with frustration and stress and ends with workplace wars.

Constant challenges breed frustration. A healthy dose of frustration can be good, leading to determination and creativity. Unfortunately, instead of the occasional obstacle at work, we are often buried in an avalanche of problems. We don’t have the resources we need to do our job, and the goalposts keep moving. We blame the relentless, do-more-with-less nature of our shortsighted, quarterly-results-driven business climate for our frustration, or we pin responsibility on unending change or corporate culture. Whatever the reason, many of us are chronically frustrated at work.

Toxic emotions are stressful. Chronic frustration often morphs into fear and anger — “destructive emotions” that serve as an early warning system that we’re in danger. When the alarm rings, our bodies go into high alert, adrenaline and hormones course through our veins, muscles tighten so that we can move quickly, hands sweat, and breathing and heart rates speed up. This would all be well and good if it happened infrequently and saved us from actual danger. Unfortunately, frustration, low-grade fear, irritation, and even rage are familiar companions at work. Many of us are hyperalert all the time. We don’t thrive physically, we are disengaged and unhappy at work, and our brains don’t work properly.

Stress feeds conflict — and conflict breeds anger, resentment, and unhappiness. It’s easy to fool ourselves into thinking that stress isn’t all bad. In fact, when we’re under pressure, we may perform well on routine, well-rehearsed tasks. But when we’re under chronic stress, our complex thinking, reasoning, and social skills all suffer. Our ability to process and use information is compromised, as is our judgment. We have more difficulty with being flexible or open to new ideas, and we start seeing things in simplistic ways. We overreact to minor irritants, and everything and everyone starts looking like a threat. In this state, we are more likely to cause problems than solve them — especially in relationships.
This is when the vicious cycle becomes an endless loop. We don’t think straight. We pick fights. People aren’t pleased, and they let us know. Stress escalates, and our reasoning and behavior suffer even more. We lash out, hide out, or opt out.

A Three-Step Process to Interrupt the Vicious Cycle
If you want to break this cycle and have fewer destructive conflicts at work, the first step is to become more aware of your feelings and reactions to pressure and stress. The second step is to consciously manage your emotions, and the third is to start seeing people as people, not as threats.

Step 1: Develop self-awareness. To interrupt the frustration-stress-conflict cycle, you need to begin by recognizing what causes you to feel thwarted, scared, or threatened and what drives you to the battleground. This sounds easy, but even well-intentioned people typically put self-reflection last on the list — there just aren’t enough hours in the day. Telling yourself you don’t have time or are not inclined to “work on yourself” will keep you stuck in a bunker mentality at work. Instead, make time and tap into curiosity and courage to try to figure out what kinds of situations (and people) send you into the stratosphere. The more you know about your triggers, the better you can control your emotions.

Step 2: Employ emotional self-control. Once you’re aware of the emotions that are driving your behavior, you can employ another important emotional intelligence competency: emotional self-control. This is what enables us to check and channel our emotions so that we don’t get stuck in a permanent amygdala hijack. We can manage negative feelings, see reality through a clear lens, and stop lashing out when we feel threatened.

Step 3: Build friendships at work. To minimize stress and conflict at work, we need to replace “I, me, mine” with “We, us, ours.” We need to stop seeing each other in terms of what we can get, and replace it with what we can give. This shift would result in less stress and fewer negative emotions. It would also lead to warmer, friendlier relationships — something most people need and want at work.
Developing self-awareness, increasing your emotional self-control, and recharging relationships at work takes commitment, but you don’t have to remake yourself to improve how you deal with strife. Here are a few practical tips to help you with the above steps:

Build mindfulness practices into your daily life. Mindfulness practices like yoga, meditation, deep breathing, and taking a solitary walk are invaluable when it comes to developing self-awareness, learning to manage our emotions, and short-circuiting the stress response. The research is mounting by the day: Even a few minutes of slow, deep breathing several times a day helps us to clear our minds, calm down, and choose our actions more consciously.

Schedule time for self-reflection. Like mindfulness practices, self-reflection helps tremendously with self-awareness and self-control. It’s hard to find time to think about our viewpoints and actions in our always-on world, however. So start small. You might, for example, reserve 20 minutes at the end of each week to reflect on what went well and what didn’t. But remember: Don’t fall prey to the “beat myself up” trap and spend this time lamenting what you didn’t get done or what you should’ve done differently. All that does is engender more stress.

Lean in to your natural empathy and compassion. Concern for others, empathy, and compassion help us to survive and thrive. Like self-reflection, this muscle may not be one you use often at work. But you can get better pretty quickly if you make a point to ask yourself questions that help you understand others’ points of view. Try these:

  • What is he thinking and feeling about the situation?
  • How is she different from me? How are we the same?
  • What can I do to make him feel better about this situation and about me?

As you ask yourself these questions, remember that we all have a story — loves, sorrows, and joys in life and at work. And chances are that while another person’s story might seem different from yours, our human experiences are remarkably similar. As tempting as it is to blame others for our strife-ridden companies, the best way to make work a more enjoyable, productive experience is to lean in to our natural empathy, learn to care for ourselves and others, and take responsibility for our feelings and actions.

Read more on Stress management or related topics Managing conflictsEmotional intelligence and Mindfulness

https://hbr.org/2017/07/a-3-step-process-to-break-a-cycle-of-frustration-stress-and-fighting-at-work?tpcc=orgsocial_edit&utm_campaign=hbr&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 24, 2024

1. Stock Factor Rotation Since July 10th

@Charlie Bilello
Within the US the market, we’ve seen a factor rotation since July 10 with Small Caps ($VBR) outperforming Large Caps ($SPY) and Value ($IWD) outperforming Growth ($IWF).

This is a reversal from the prior secular trend which saw Large Cap outperformance hit its highest level since October 1999 and Growth stock outperformance hit its highest level since March 2000.


2. Sector Performance Post Rate Cuts

Advisor Perspectives -by Tony DeSpirito of BlackRock

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/10/24/interest-rates-fall-new-stock-opportunities-arise


3. UPS was at $180 in 2023..Earnings Beat Today


4. KKR Assets (AUM) Jump 19% Year Over Year

KKR chart straight up to right


5. Southern state could become ‘white gold’ boom town after $150 billion lithium reserve discovery

By NIKKI MAIN SCIENCE REPORTER FOR DAILYMAIL.COM

Arkansas is sitting on a $150 billion ‘hidden treasure’ trove of lithium that could meet the global demand for EV batteries by 2030.
The US Geological Survey (USGS) found between five and 19 million tons of lithium in the Smackover Formation, which is nine times the amount needed to meet the ongoing electric vehicle demand  in the US by the end of the decade.
The metal is a necessary component for batteries used in EVs and can be extracted from the brine wastewater from the same mines that produce oil and gas.
Lithium is a critical mineral for the energy transition, and the potential for increased U.S. production to replace imports has implications for employment, manufacturing and supply-chain resilience,’ USGS Director David Applegate said.
‘This study illustrates the value of science in addressing economically important issues.’
Several companies, including Exxon Mobil, have already begun drilling exploratory wells to extract the lithium from 4,000 feet below ground.
The global demand for lithium has drastically increased in recent years as countries move to transition from using fossil fuels in gas-powered cars to electric and hybrid vehicles.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13988211/Arkansas-lithium-reserve-solve-EV-battery-demand.html


6. The U.S. Growth Since 2019 vs. G-7

Irrelevant Investor Blog-Michael Batnick

https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/animal-spirits-the-1990s-really-were-better


7. Why are We Leading Our Peers? Morningbrew  We Work Harder

Why the US economy is leading its peers
Anna Kim
While Italians scoff at Americano slop and Japanese people cringe at stateside 7-Eleven hot dogs, Americans are having the last laugh when it comes to economic prosperity.
The US economy is doing better than that of any other member of the rich countries club (aka the Group of Seven), the International Monetary Fund said yesterday. The global economy watcher upgraded its prediction for US GDP growth to 2.8% this year, compared to the 0.9% average for all G7 countries.
Economists attribute the strength of the US economy to rising inflation-adjusted wages and strong consumer spending, all fueled by longtime investment. Experts say it boils down to Americans being more efficient workers.

Americans get more done

US workers are more productive than their counterparts in Europe and Japan, but probably not because they take shorter vacations or drink less wine at lunch. US companies have more money to invest in innovation due to lower energy prices and strong government support.
Workers benefit from updated machinery and software to operate more efficiently. According to The Economist:

  • The average US worker will churn out $171,000 of goods and services this year, compared to $120,000 for a European employee and $96,000 for one in Japan.
  • Americans’ hourly productivity has risen 70% since 1990, compared to just 29% in Europe and 25% in Japan, according to Conference Board data analyzed by The Economist.

The US owes its economic powerhouse status to a robust business environment, in which workers switch jobs often and new companies pop up, according to The Economist. These conditions give rise to its dominant tech sector and other lucrative industries that create economic value.
But…productivity growth is declining worldwide, including in the US, which is bad news for global economic growth. AI might reverse this trend. Some economists are optimistic that it will boost productivity and turbocharge economies, but the IMF cites experts who say that governments need to do more to promote a competitive environment and support smaller businesses.—SK 

https://www.morningbrew.com/daily


8. U.S. Home Equity is $35 Trillion

St. Louis Fed noted, Americans have more than $35 trillion in home equity, which is up by 81% from the end of 2019.


9. Rates Rising Again…Mortgage applications fell 17% last week. That’s the largest weekly drop since April 2020.

Source: Liz Ann Sonders


10. ‘Silent Phase’ Of Alzheimer’s Begins Decades Before Symptoms, NIH Study Suggests

BY TYLER DURDEN ZEROHEDGE

Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Recent advancements in Alzheimer’s disease research show a promising shift in the understanding of the memory-robbing disorder, suggesting that crucial brain changes can occur decades before symptoms manifest.
​A recent study has identified a two-phase progression of Alzheimer’s, highlighting a silent phase marked by subtle brain changes long before cognitive decline becomes apparent.​
Alzheimer’s disease has a long pre-symptomatic period, with related changes taking place in the brain “10, 15, even 20 years before the onset of memory and thinking symptoms,” Igor Camargo Fontana, Alzheimer’s Association director of scientific conference programming, told The Epoch Times.
This research could also open new avenues for earlier detection and targeted treatments.
“One of the challenges to diagnosing and treating Alzheimer’s is that much of the damage to the brain happens well before symptoms occur,” Dr. Richard J. Hodes, director of the NIH National Institute on Aging, said in a statement. “The ability to detect these early changes means that, for the first time, we can see what is happening to a person’s brain during the earliest periods of the disease.”

The Early Phase: Silent and Gradual Damage

A recent National Institutes of Health (NIH)-funded study provided new insights into the progression of Alzheimer’s disease, potentially paving the way for earlier detection and treatment options.
The findings, published in Nature Neuroscience, say that Alzheimer’s affects the brain in two distinct phases: an early, silent phase characterized by subtle changes, and a later, symptomatic phase marked by widespread damage and the accumulation of amyloid plaques, long associated with the disorder.
Researchers have found that the initial phase of Alzheimer’s is insidious, unfolding slowly over time and occurring well before noticeable memory problems arise. During this phase, a gradual buildup of beta-amyloid plaques and tangles—hallmarks of Alzheimer’s—can be observed.
This early “quiet” phase is marked by subtle changes in brain cells, particularly inhibitory neurons, which may be among the first to become vulnerable, disrupting communication between brain cells, according to Fontana. These cells are mostly located in a brain region that is associated with memory, vision, and language.
The research specifically identified the death of somatostatin inhibitory neurons, a group previously underestimated in their role within Alzheimer’s pathology. This finding challenges the prevailing notion that the disease primarily harms excitatory neurons responsible for facilitating brain cell communication.

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/silent-phase-alzheimers-begins-decades-symptoms-nih-study-suggests

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 22, 2024

1. Valuation Without Mag 7…19.6X Forward P/E

From Irrelevant Investor Blog-Michael Batnick

https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/the-compound-and-friends-strength-leads-to-strength


2. Since 1981 Tax Revenue Up 4.9x -Debt Up 44x

I would check these numbers.

https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/end-us-economic-and-military-empire-rise-gold


3. Investors Hedging Run Away Spending with Gold–Gold Miners GDX Chart

50-week moving average thru 200-week to upside

2011-2012 Chart Hit $60


 

4. More Speculative Junior Miners Same Chart

50 week moving average thru 200 week moving average to upside

GDXJ Hit $160 in 2011-2012 Era


5. Silver +41.5% YTD-Chart

SLV breaks above 2020-2021 levels….Next resistance 2012 levels.


6. Record Debt, Gold New Highs…But U.S. Dollar Still Going Higher

Renmac Dollar Overbought Chart


7. ASML Shows Chip Sector Still Cyclical Business….$8B Revenue Quarter in 2023 to $2B 2024

https://sherwood.news/business/asml-ai-chip-trade-semiconductors-slowdown/?utm_source=chartr&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=chartr_20241020


8. What’s at Stake in a Strained Microsoft-OpenAI Partnership- DEALBOOK NEWSLETTER

Andrew Sorkin
But tension is building in what Altman once called “the best bromance in tech.” 

Microsoft began to get worried after last year’s upheaval at OpenAI and moved to hedge its A.I. bets. That included spending at least $650 million to hire most employees from Inflection, an OpenAI rival led by the former Google executive Mustafa Suleyman. At Microsoft, Suleyman’s role includes building tech that could supplant OpenAI’s products, which has riled some of the ChatGPT parent’s executives.
From The Times:

Some OpenAI staff recently complained that Mr. Suleyman yelled at an OpenAI employee during a recent video call because he thought the start-up was not delivering new technology to Microsoft as quickly as it should, according to two people familiar with the call. Others took umbrage after Microsoft’s engineers downloaded important OpenAI software without following the protocols the two companies had agreed on, the people said.

OpenAI executives are also complaining that Microsoft isn’t providing enough computing power. The start-up has already negotiated their to let it sign a $10 billion contract with Oracle for additional compute, and secured reductions in how much Microsoft charges for its cloud resources.

Both sides are working with investment banks — Goldman Sachs for OpenAI and Morgan Stanley for Microsoft — over how much of a stake the tech giant should have when the A.I. start-up becomes a for-profit entity, according to The Wall Street Journal.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/18/business/dealbook/microsoft-openai-ai.html


9. Top 10 States with Highest Average Retirement Savings Per Person

Visual Capitalist

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/emp01-ranked-the-top-10-states-by-average-retirement-savings/


10. Elite Sports and Business-Farnam Street

Rob Fraser discusses the mindset required to excel in elite sports and business. 

“Sometimes you don’t push as hard because there’s no personal mission there. There’s no reason to push. You don’t necessarily take that mindset into everything you do, but it’s really helpful for those larger goals. And it’s similar with business; I think success in any large goal comes down to your ability to endure over the long term. Perseverance. Resilience. People always talk about hacks and quick wins and “How can you shorten the timeline?” And ultimately I think that leads to maybe a quick win here and there, but not longevity. In business and in sport, careers are built on longevity, and that really comes down to a mindset because along that path on anything worth doing, there are just so many ups and downs and sideways and there’s just so much going on.”

— Listen now on AppleSpotify, or watch on YouTube. (Members have access to the transcript and my reflections.) https://fs.blog

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 21, 2024

1. It’s Not 1999-2000


2. What Sectors are Above their Pre-2022 Bear Market Highs?

https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/the-compound-and-friends-strength-leads-to-strength


3. Trading Culture is Rampant…HOOD Rolling Out New Trading Tools to Retail

Robinhood +175% in 12 Months as Retail Traders Up Options Trading


 

4. Uranium Made Double Bottom Now a Tick from New Highs


5. Uranium Miners Chart Similar Picture


6. Portfolio Performance with Rates Falling…It Depends

www.capitalgroup.com


7. Emerging Market ETF Chart

50 week thru 200 week moving average to the upside on long-term chart


8. Saudi Arabia Dream City Neom ‘uses one fifth of world’s steel’

By Andrew Hammond

Neom could be the world’s largest customer for construction materials for several decades, according to an official

  • Largest construction customer
  •  ‘5% of global logistics market’
  • Market driver for decades

The Neom giga-project in Saudi Arabia is currently using one fifth of all the steel produced in the world, an official said on Monday
The futuristic city will be the world’s largest customer for construction materials for several decades, said Manar Al Moneef, Neom’s chief investment officer.
She told the Global Logistics Forum in the King Abdullah Financial District in Riyadh that the $500 billion project would be one of the world’s leading drivers of the global logistics sector in coming years. 
“Neom is going to be the largest customer over the next decade. If you look at our demand in logistics it’s 5 percent of the global logistics market,” she told the forum, in rare public comments. 
Neom’s demand for steel meant “we are 20 percent of the global steel market. If you look at our demand in elevators, cement and so on … put simply, Neom is going to be the largest customer over the next few decades,” Al Moneef said. 
Neom, located in the far northwest of Saudi Arabia, is the jewel in the crown of Saudi Arabia’s economic development projects, which have been valued at more than $1.25 trillion. 
However, some projects have slowed down as Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) faces funding pressures caused by lower oil prices and pressure to funnel cash towards projects in Riyadh before the World Expo 2030 and the 2034 World Cup, both taking place in the Saudi capital.

 Neom ‘uses one fifth of world’s steel’ | AGBI


9. U.S. Set to Spend $1.7 Trillion Over 30 Years to Revamp Nuclear Arsenal

NY Times By W.J. Hennigan 
With Russia at war, China escalating regional disputes and nations like North Korea and Iran expanding their nuclear programs, the United States is set to spend an estimated $1.7 trillion over 30 years to revamp its own arsenal.  The spending spree, which the government began planning in 2010, is underway in at least 23 states — nearly 50 if you include subcontractors. It follows a decades-long freeze on designing, building or testing new nuclear weapons. Along with the subs, the military is paying for a new fleet of bomber jets, land-based missiles and thermonuclear warheads. Tally all that spending, and the bill comes to almost $57 billion a year, or $108,000 per minute for three decades.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/10/opinion/nuclear-weapons-us-price.html


10. Every Leader Needs to Navigate These 7 Tensions -HBR

by Jennifer Jordan,Michael Wade, and Elizabeth Teracino
In recent years, articles have claimed that old-style command-and-control leadership is “out” and a new way of leading is “in.” Instead of telling people what to do, leaders should ask them open-ended questions. Instead of sticking exactly to plans, they should adjust goals as new information emerges. Instead of working from the gut, a leader should rely on data to make decisions. And so forth.
Let’s call this old-fashioned leadership model traditional and the new one emerging. Here’s the challenge: in the current environment, most executives need to be good at both styles to succeed. That is, any leader who relies solely on positional authority will run into trouble; business, technology, and workforce expectations are changing much too quickly for that approach to be sustainable. But at the same time, any leader who fails to strive for perfection, who never tells and only listens, and who shares but never holds power, will also struggle to be effective.
In surveys and interviews with hundreds of leaders worldwide, we uncovered seven core tensions between the traditional and emerging leadership approaches. Those tensions create significant stress for leaders, as they are often unsure of what competencies, skills, and behaviors to exercise in a particular context. In this article, we describe the tensions, outline the dangers in ignoring them, and suggest coping strategies for balancing the two approaches.
Tension 1: The Expert vs. the Learner
Traditionally, leaders built their careers by developing deep expertise of some kind and demonstrating increasing levels of competence as they moved up the corporate ladder. Organizations assumed that they would bring superior insight to the challenge at hand. In the emerging approach, leaders must accept that their specialized expertise is limited (in some cases obsolete) and be open to learning from others. This is especially true when it comes to digital knowledge, as many of the leaders who are tasked with leading digital transformations are not digital natives themselves. If this tension is not managed wisely, leaders run the risk of making bad or inappropriate decisions.
Tim Westergren, co-founder of streaming radio platform Pandora, was able to blend the two. He believed that a key to his success was combining his deep knowledge of the industry with an openness to learning from others about new trends and technologies. Prior to Pandora, Westergren worked as a record producer and composer for two decades, under the name Pandora Media, which was all about music discovery — this fed Pandora’s “music genome” algorithm, one of the keys to Pandora’s success. But then when the company shifted to a freemium business model, he was in new territory and had to rely heavily on insights and knowledgefrom employees and customers.
Tension 2: The Constant vs. the Adaptor
The traditional approach to leadership values decision-making conviction and consistency; good leaders “stick to their guns.”  By contrast, the emerging approach recognizes that in fast-changing environments, decisions often need to be reversed or adapted, and that changing course in response to new information is a strength, not a weakness. If this tension is not managed wisely, leaders run the risk of seeming too rigid, on the one hand, or too wishy-washy on the other.
Early in his career, Jim Whitehurst, CEO of open-source software company Red Hat, decided to release a product that wasn’t completely open source, which was against company policy. Not surprisingly, the product failed. Fortunately, he had developed a reputation for providing a secure, solid base for his team. Consequently, when he openly admitted his error, employees and colleagues were willing to quickly move forward from the mistake.
Tension 3: The Tactician vs. the Visionary
The traditional approach to leadership calls for operational clarity and well-defined plans. The emerging approach suggests that leaders require a clear vision for where they want to go, without necessarily needing a concrete roadmap for how to get there. If this tension isn’t managed wisely, leaders run the risk of providing no “north star” for their team members. On the other hand, if they are not grounded in reality, they may serve up lofty, unrealistic, or intangible goals.
Vas Narasimhan, CEO of Novartis AG, believes that predictive analytics and artificial intelligence will revolutionize the healthcare industry. Therefore, he invested significantly in AI and challenged different parts of the organization to find their own way to deploy the technology. Most teams welcomed the initiative, but Narasimhan noticed that they often struggled to link AI to their daily work. Thus, he paid close attention to the day-to-day processes needed to allow these “bigger, bolder moves” to achieve results for the pharmaceutical giant. He infused predictive analytics and artificial intelligence into the operational heart of the company itself, as a tangible first goal, and launched a tool enabling real-time viewing of all 500 clinical trials around the world, which can be expanded into other areas such as manufacturing and regulatory affairs.
Tension 4: The Teller vs. the Listener
The traditional approach to leadership calls for leaders to tell others what to do and how to do it. The emerging approach values listening carefully to others before deciding. If this tension is not managed wisely, leaders run the risk of missing important information that resides in the team members surrounding them. Conversely, if a leader refrains from providing their viewpoint, they miss the chance to apply their own valuable knowledge.
Angela Ahrendts, former CEO of Burberry, entered her role with a clear point of view: that the fashion brand needed to become relevant to a generation of Millennial shoppers in order to thrive. But when it came to specific operational decisions, she sourced ideas and opinions from a wide range of people, leading to an almost doubling of Burberry’s operating profits during her tenure.
Tension 5: The Power Holder vs. the Power Sharer
The traditional approach suggests that leaders must lead from the top, make decisions, and take actions independently. In contrast, the emerging approach values empowering others to achieve goals. If this tension is not managed wisely, leaders run the risk of alienating and marginalizing promising talent. Alternatively, they may undermine their own authority by sharing power too broadly.
Marco Bizzarri, CEO of Gucci, held the power endowed to his position by managing the financial part of the business while giving Gucci’s creative director, Alessandro Michele, the space to focus solely on what he does best — the design. But he also knew when to empower, creating a shadow board of Millennial employees to advise the fashion behemoth’s executive team.
Tension 6: The Intuitionist vs. the Analyst
The traditional approach suggests that leaders build up an “expert gut” to make intuitive decisions. By contrast, the emerging approach says that leaders should base decisions largely on data. If this tension is not managed wisely, leaders run the risk of making decisions based on outdated and biased heuristics. Or, on the other hand, they risk ignoring their inner compass, which might provide valuable insights from past experience.
Barbara Coppola, CDO of IKEA, advocates for the importance of data-driven decision-making and data standardization globally, while giving regions the latitude to innovate to suit their immediate markets. Because data and certain metrics are standardized across regions, these can be benchmarked easily against all other regions, as well as globally. The benchmarking standardization tactic gives an overall picture from which intuitive hunches about which regional innovations could be experimentally expanded or leveraged globally.
Tension 7: The Perfectionist vs. the Accelerator
The traditional approach asserts that leaders should take the time to deliver a perfectly finished product. The emerging approach calls for leaders to acknowledge that doing something quickly, and failing fast, is often more important than doing it perfectly. If not managed wisely, leaders run the risk of delaying the launch of key initiatives or directives due to a fear of imperfection. Conversely, bringing initiatives forward without ample consideration and testing can lead to embarrassing results.
Charlotte Lindsey-Curtet, director of digital transformation and data at the International Red Cross, strives to maintain an impeccable, privacy-by-design approach to protecting the identity of refugees. However, she also explores ways to connect refugee families via new technologies, like biometrics, as speed is a critical factor in family reunification.
What can executives do to navigate these tensions?
Leaders improve their effectiveness not by consistently emphasizing one approach over the other, but by developing the ambidexterity to move between the two as the context requires. The difficulty of achieving this level of cognitive and behavioral ambidexterity should not be underestimated — but it can be achieved, with focused efforts.
Self-awareness. Understanding one’s natural tendencies is an important first step. Where is your comfort zone? What’s your default position? In the digital world, leaders can gain insight about themselves from real-time feedback apps or from online forums where members of their community post comments and provide assessments.
Learn, adapt, practice. Once leaders know their natural tendencies, they can work to develop a portfolio of micro-behaviors to address the tensions that they don’t manage well. This process can be enhanced by formal coaching. That may come in the form of human coaching, or through a coaching bot, like Jolt.ai.
Contextual awarenessBecoming a more effective leader means not only expanding one’s current leadership approach to incorporate new behaviors but knowing when to focus more on one side of the tension or the other. This requires both contextual awareness and emotional intelligence — sourced directly from the leader or from the surrounding social environment. Through programs like reverse mentoring, leaders can rely on the diversity embedded within their workforces to give them advice on when it is appropriate to favor one approach more than the other.
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