TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 21, 2024

1. It’s Not 1999-2000


2. What Sectors are Above their Pre-2022 Bear Market Highs?

https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/the-compound-and-friends-strength-leads-to-strength


3. Trading Culture is Rampant…HOOD Rolling Out New Trading Tools to Retail

Robinhood +175% in 12 Months as Retail Traders Up Options Trading


 

4. Uranium Made Double Bottom Now a Tick from New Highs


5. Uranium Miners Chart Similar Picture


6. Portfolio Performance with Rates Falling…It Depends

www.capitalgroup.com


7. Emerging Market ETF Chart

50 week thru 200 week moving average to the upside on long-term chart


8. Saudi Arabia Dream City Neom ‘uses one fifth of world’s steel’

By Andrew Hammond

Neom could be the world’s largest customer for construction materials for several decades, according to an official

  • Largest construction customer
  •  ‘5% of global logistics market’
  • Market driver for decades

The Neom giga-project in Saudi Arabia is currently using one fifth of all the steel produced in the world, an official said on Monday
The futuristic city will be the world’s largest customer for construction materials for several decades, said Manar Al Moneef, Neom’s chief investment officer.
She told the Global Logistics Forum in the King Abdullah Financial District in Riyadh that the $500 billion project would be one of the world’s leading drivers of the global logistics sector in coming years. 
“Neom is going to be the largest customer over the next decade. If you look at our demand in logistics it’s 5 percent of the global logistics market,” she told the forum, in rare public comments. 
Neom’s demand for steel meant “we are 20 percent of the global steel market. If you look at our demand in elevators, cement and so on … put simply, Neom is going to be the largest customer over the next few decades,” Al Moneef said. 
Neom, located in the far northwest of Saudi Arabia, is the jewel in the crown of Saudi Arabia’s economic development projects, which have been valued at more than $1.25 trillion. 
However, some projects have slowed down as Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) faces funding pressures caused by lower oil prices and pressure to funnel cash towards projects in Riyadh before the World Expo 2030 and the 2034 World Cup, both taking place in the Saudi capital.

 Neom ‘uses one fifth of world’s steel’ | AGBI


9. U.S. Set to Spend $1.7 Trillion Over 30 Years to Revamp Nuclear Arsenal

NY Times By W.J. Hennigan 
With Russia at war, China escalating regional disputes and nations like North Korea and Iran expanding their nuclear programs, the United States is set to spend an estimated $1.7 trillion over 30 years to revamp its own arsenal.  The spending spree, which the government began planning in 2010, is underway in at least 23 states — nearly 50 if you include subcontractors. It follows a decades-long freeze on designing, building or testing new nuclear weapons. Along with the subs, the military is paying for a new fleet of bomber jets, land-based missiles and thermonuclear warheads. Tally all that spending, and the bill comes to almost $57 billion a year, or $108,000 per minute for three decades.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/10/opinion/nuclear-weapons-us-price.html


10. Every Leader Needs to Navigate These 7 Tensions -HBR

by Jennifer Jordan,Michael Wade, and Elizabeth Teracino
In recent years, articles have claimed that old-style command-and-control leadership is “out” and a new way of leading is “in.” Instead of telling people what to do, leaders should ask them open-ended questions. Instead of sticking exactly to plans, they should adjust goals as new information emerges. Instead of working from the gut, a leader should rely on data to make decisions. And so forth.
Let’s call this old-fashioned leadership model traditional and the new one emerging. Here’s the challenge: in the current environment, most executives need to be good at both styles to succeed. That is, any leader who relies solely on positional authority will run into trouble; business, technology, and workforce expectations are changing much too quickly for that approach to be sustainable. But at the same time, any leader who fails to strive for perfection, who never tells and only listens, and who shares but never holds power, will also struggle to be effective.
In surveys and interviews with hundreds of leaders worldwide, we uncovered seven core tensions between the traditional and emerging leadership approaches. Those tensions create significant stress for leaders, as they are often unsure of what competencies, skills, and behaviors to exercise in a particular context. In this article, we describe the tensions, outline the dangers in ignoring them, and suggest coping strategies for balancing the two approaches.
Tension 1: The Expert vs. the Learner
Traditionally, leaders built their careers by developing deep expertise of some kind and demonstrating increasing levels of competence as they moved up the corporate ladder. Organizations assumed that they would bring superior insight to the challenge at hand. In the emerging approach, leaders must accept that their specialized expertise is limited (in some cases obsolete) and be open to learning from others. This is especially true when it comes to digital knowledge, as many of the leaders who are tasked with leading digital transformations are not digital natives themselves. If this tension is not managed wisely, leaders run the risk of making bad or inappropriate decisions.
Tim Westergren, co-founder of streaming radio platform Pandora, was able to blend the two. He believed that a key to his success was combining his deep knowledge of the industry with an openness to learning from others about new trends and technologies. Prior to Pandora, Westergren worked as a record producer and composer for two decades, under the name Pandora Media, which was all about music discovery — this fed Pandora’s “music genome” algorithm, one of the keys to Pandora’s success. But then when the company shifted to a freemium business model, he was in new territory and had to rely heavily on insights and knowledgefrom employees and customers.
Tension 2: The Constant vs. the Adaptor
The traditional approach to leadership values decision-making conviction and consistency; good leaders “stick to their guns.”  By contrast, the emerging approach recognizes that in fast-changing environments, decisions often need to be reversed or adapted, and that changing course in response to new information is a strength, not a weakness. If this tension is not managed wisely, leaders run the risk of seeming too rigid, on the one hand, or too wishy-washy on the other.
Early in his career, Jim Whitehurst, CEO of open-source software company Red Hat, decided to release a product that wasn’t completely open source, which was against company policy. Not surprisingly, the product failed. Fortunately, he had developed a reputation for providing a secure, solid base for his team. Consequently, when he openly admitted his error, employees and colleagues were willing to quickly move forward from the mistake.
Tension 3: The Tactician vs. the Visionary
The traditional approach to leadership calls for operational clarity and well-defined plans. The emerging approach suggests that leaders require a clear vision for where they want to go, without necessarily needing a concrete roadmap for how to get there. If this tension isn’t managed wisely, leaders run the risk of providing no “north star” for their team members. On the other hand, if they are not grounded in reality, they may serve up lofty, unrealistic, or intangible goals.
Vas Narasimhan, CEO of Novartis AG, believes that predictive analytics and artificial intelligence will revolutionize the healthcare industry. Therefore, he invested significantly in AI and challenged different parts of the organization to find their own way to deploy the technology. Most teams welcomed the initiative, but Narasimhan noticed that they often struggled to link AI to their daily work. Thus, he paid close attention to the day-to-day processes needed to allow these “bigger, bolder moves” to achieve results for the pharmaceutical giant. He infused predictive analytics and artificial intelligence into the operational heart of the company itself, as a tangible first goal, and launched a tool enabling real-time viewing of all 500 clinical trials around the world, which can be expanded into other areas such as manufacturing and regulatory affairs.
Tension 4: The Teller vs. the Listener
The traditional approach to leadership calls for leaders to tell others what to do and how to do it. The emerging approach values listening carefully to others before deciding. If this tension is not managed wisely, leaders run the risk of missing important information that resides in the team members surrounding them. Conversely, if a leader refrains from providing their viewpoint, they miss the chance to apply their own valuable knowledge.
Angela Ahrendts, former CEO of Burberry, entered her role with a clear point of view: that the fashion brand needed to become relevant to a generation of Millennial shoppers in order to thrive. But when it came to specific operational decisions, she sourced ideas and opinions from a wide range of people, leading to an almost doubling of Burberry’s operating profits during her tenure.
Tension 5: The Power Holder vs. the Power Sharer
The traditional approach suggests that leaders must lead from the top, make decisions, and take actions independently. In contrast, the emerging approach values empowering others to achieve goals. If this tension is not managed wisely, leaders run the risk of alienating and marginalizing promising talent. Alternatively, they may undermine their own authority by sharing power too broadly.
Marco Bizzarri, CEO of Gucci, held the power endowed to his position by managing the financial part of the business while giving Gucci’s creative director, Alessandro Michele, the space to focus solely on what he does best — the design. But he also knew when to empower, creating a shadow board of Millennial employees to advise the fashion behemoth’s executive team.
Tension 6: The Intuitionist vs. the Analyst
The traditional approach suggests that leaders build up an “expert gut” to make intuitive decisions. By contrast, the emerging approach says that leaders should base decisions largely on data. If this tension is not managed wisely, leaders run the risk of making decisions based on outdated and biased heuristics. Or, on the other hand, they risk ignoring their inner compass, which might provide valuable insights from past experience.
Barbara Coppola, CDO of IKEA, advocates for the importance of data-driven decision-making and data standardization globally, while giving regions the latitude to innovate to suit their immediate markets. Because data and certain metrics are standardized across regions, these can be benchmarked easily against all other regions, as well as globally. The benchmarking standardization tactic gives an overall picture from which intuitive hunches about which regional innovations could be experimentally expanded or leveraged globally.
Tension 7: The Perfectionist vs. the Accelerator
The traditional approach asserts that leaders should take the time to deliver a perfectly finished product. The emerging approach calls for leaders to acknowledge that doing something quickly, and failing fast, is often more important than doing it perfectly. If not managed wisely, leaders run the risk of delaying the launch of key initiatives or directives due to a fear of imperfection. Conversely, bringing initiatives forward without ample consideration and testing can lead to embarrassing results.
Charlotte Lindsey-Curtet, director of digital transformation and data at the International Red Cross, strives to maintain an impeccable, privacy-by-design approach to protecting the identity of refugees. However, she also explores ways to connect refugee families via new technologies, like biometrics, as speed is a critical factor in family reunification.
What can executives do to navigate these tensions?
Leaders improve their effectiveness not by consistently emphasizing one approach over the other, but by developing the ambidexterity to move between the two as the context requires. The difficulty of achieving this level of cognitive and behavioral ambidexterity should not be underestimated — but it can be achieved, with focused efforts.
Self-awareness. Understanding one’s natural tendencies is an important first step. Where is your comfort zone? What’s your default position? In the digital world, leaders can gain insight about themselves from real-time feedback apps or from online forums where members of their community post comments and provide assessments.
Learn, adapt, practice. Once leaders know their natural tendencies, they can work to develop a portfolio of micro-behaviors to address the tensions that they don’t manage well. This process can be enhanced by formal coaching. That may come in the form of human coaching, or through a coaching bot, like Jolt.ai.
Contextual awarenessBecoming a more effective leader means not only expanding one’s current leadership approach to incorporate new behaviors but knowing when to focus more on one side of the tension or the other. This requires both contextual awareness and emotional intelligence — sourced directly from the leader or from the surrounding social environment. Through programs like reverse mentoring, leaders can rely on the diversity embedded within their workforces to give them advice on when it is appropriate to favor one approach more than the other.
Read more on Leadership and managing people or related topics Managing yourself and Decision making and problem solving

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 17, 2024

1. Insider Buying at Lows

DC Lite Blog Insiders
“You know who’s not chasing stocks here? Insiders. Corporate executives among S&P 500 firms have some of the least open market purchases in 13 years.”

@jasongoepfert


2. Current Expansion Still Early?

Torston Slok Apollo


3. Bond allocations see record drop amid jump in investor optimism, BofA survey finds

By Christine Idzelis
Investor optimism has jumped the most since June 2020 on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate-cut cycle, expectations for a soft landing for the U.S. economy and China’s stimulus, according to BofA Global Research’s global fund manager survey in October.Allocations to stocks surged, while bonds saw a record drop in allocations, BofA said in an Oct. 15 note on the survey. Cash levels fell to 3.9% from 4.2%, the survey found.

While BofA’s bull and bear indicator indicates “froth” is rising, it’s “not yet the big ‘sell signal,’” according to the report. The fund manager survey found bond allocations dropped to 15% underweight from 11% overweight, while global equity allocations jumped to 31% overweight.
 
 https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-futures-take-a-pause-after-sell-off/card/bond-allocations-see-record-drop-amid-jump-in-investor-optimism-bofa-survey-finds-Z0PP2n9PSHN9KFpS1SpR?mod=home-page


4. U.S. Dollar About to Make New Highs


5. Taiwan Semis Hitting New Highs on Numbers

Barrons-Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing posted a big jump in profit and sales for the third quarter, beating analysts’ estimates. It’s a sign of strong demand for artificial-intelligence chips.  Taiwan Semi, or TSMC, said revenue in U.S. dollars in the third quarter jumped 36% from a year earlier to $23.5 billion. Net profit rose 54% on the year to the equivalent of $10.1 billion. https://www.barrons.com/articles/tsmc-taiwan-semiconductor-earnings-stock-678836db?mod=hp_LEAD_5


6. Underwater Car Loans

American consumers are increasingly underwater on their car loans (cnbc.com)


7. However…Households Net Worth Going Up Across the Board….Dwarfing National Debt

Yes the large amounts of stimulus helped boost this and also ballooned the national debt. But take a look at household net worth less the national debt. This chart is really something.

Source: Jake


8. History of Portfolio Returns Since 1976

Jeffrey Sinak -AMG

https://wealth.amg.com/contactus/


9. India Plans $109 Billion Of Grid Investments To Boost Renewables

Zerohedge By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

India plans a massive upgrade and expansion of its power transmission system, expecting investment opportunities of $109 billion to support the integration of renewable energy sources and storage solutions, the power ministry has said.
India’s new National Electricity Plan (Transmission) envisages the addition of hundreds of thousands of kilometers of transmission lines, transformation capacity, and inter-regional transmission capacity by 2032.

India aims to have 500 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity installed by 2030 and more than 600 GW by 2032, according to the National Electricity Plan.
The country expects its power demand to surge to 708 GW by 2047, India’s Power Minister Manohar Lal said in a statement. To meet this demand, India needs to quadruple its power capacity, the minister added.

“This is not just about increasing capacity; it’s about reimagining our entire energy landscape,” Lal said.
“We have set an ambitious target of 500 GW of non-fossil energy capacity by 2030, effectively doubling our current capacity,” he added.

This push towards green energy aligns with India’s commitment to reducing carbon emissions by one billion tons by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2070, the power ministry said.
Last month, Renewables Energy Minister Pralhad Joshi said that financial institutions had pledged $386 billion in investment commitments to help India boost its renewable energy industry.

The country will need to install at least 44 GW of clean energy capacity every year by the end of the decade to meet the 500-GW goal, according to Bloomberg’s estimates based on data from the Indian Ministry of Power.

“We received overwhelming commitments from states and Union Territories as well as from the developers, manufacturers, and financial institutes to support our goal of 500 GW by 2030,” Joshi said at the annual Renewable Energy Investor’s Meet and Expo in India.
India-based conglomerates Reliance Industries and Adani are among the companies that have pledged additional renewable energy capacity. Reliance committed 100 GW of additional renewable capacity, and Adani Green Energy pledged to develop 38.8 GW of capacity. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/india-plans-109-billion-grid-investments-boost-renewables


10. New Neuroscience Reveals 5 Secrets That Will Make You Smarter -Eric Barker

Here’s how to get smarter:

  • Consider The Opposite: No, this is not a mental autoimmune disorder; it’s epistemological hygiene. Consider how you could be wrong and you’re less likely to be wrong.
  • Use Self-Distancing: Sounds like something I might do at a family reunion. In reality, it’s stepping outside your emotional meltdown to look at the situation from a cool, objective distance, as if you’re watching a Netflix show about a character named “You.”
  • Use Base Rates: Those grim reapers of magical thinking that most people completely ignore because math is hard and hope is addictive. Before you worry about the unlikely or predict the impossible ask, “How often does this actually occur?”
  • Use Emotional Differentiation: The top investors are out there deciphering the exact flavor of their emotional state like wine connoisseurs, while we’re over here chugging emotional boxed wine. Get nuanced about your feelings and intuition can become a sixth sense.

We’d all love to have clear answers in life – but sometimes a little ambiguity can lead to better thinking.

Researchers did a study where students were given a method to solve a type of math problem. Half the students were told this was “the way to solve this equation” and the other half was told this was “one way to solve this equation.” And that little word made all the difference.

Students who heard “one way” were 50% more likely to get the right answer. And, when tested, they had a more thorough understanding of the mathematical principle. Researchers redid the study with students in the humanities and social sciences. It worked again and again.

When we hear, “This is the cause, end of story,” we’re like, “Cool, I’ll just memorize that and never think about it again.” But with a little ambiguity it’s like we’ve been handed the intellectual equivalent of a treasure map. We’re no longer following orders — we’re exploring. It’s like handing someone a mystery novel instead of a manual.

Our brains expand faster than the plot holes in a Fast & Furious movie. Instead of mindlessly regurgitating what we’re told, we’re thinking critically. When we hear, “Hey, this is one option, but there might be others,” we start thinking we have agency — and we start using our brains.

Don’t let yourself get locked on to one idea. Don’t get lazy. Leave some wiggle room. Stay open-minded. Ambiguity doesn’t always create confusion. Sometimes it creates curiosity. And curiosity? That’s the stuff of brilliance.

Whatever your cognitive ability might be, start using these tools to improve your cognitive style. Consider the opposite: What if this problem isn’t as difficult as I think it is? Then self-distance: What would I tell my friend if they were in this situation? Check the base rates: How does this usually play out in the real world? Use emotional differentiation: Am I really “unhappy” with this situation, or am I just “frustrated” with this one issue? And, finally, consider there might be more than one way to make things better…

Having a high IQ doesn’t come with a warranty against being stupid. Being smart is great, but being aware of how your brain is trying to trick you?  https://bakadesuyo.com/

That’s genius.

https://www.profgalloway.com/origin-story-2/

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 16, 2024

1. Venture Exits in Q3 Plummet

Wolf Street Blog

Venture Capital Slammed by Fed Tightening: Exits Blocked after IPOs & SPACs Collapsed, Distributions at Financial Crisis Lows

 


2. Options Market Pricing in Bigger Single Stock Moves this Earnings Season


3. UBER New Highs Post TSLA Robotaxi News


4. Citi and Goldman Hit New Highs


5. Cash Levels of Active Managers Contra Indicator?


6. However…Longer-Term Margin Debt Not at Stretched Levels

Ed Yardeni Blog

Margin Debt


7. Europe’s Most Valuable Tech Company -35% from Highs

ASML -16% on day approaching 200-week moving average…last breached in 2022.


8. Trump Media Following PolyMarket Betting Odds


9. LVMH Trading Back to 2022 Levels…Sales Down Again in China


10. American Reading Habits-From Scott Galloway Prof G Blog

Origin Story

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 15, 2024

1-2. Why Are Mortgage Rates Rising?

@Charlie Bilello Before the Fed cut interest rates by 0.50% on September 18, the average 30-year mortgage rate in the US was at 6.11%. Today it’s at 6.64%.


Many are wondering how that’s possible. Doesn’t the Fed control mortgage rates?
Not exactly. The Fed targets short-term interest rates which directly influence short-term bonds like 1-month and 3-month Treasury bills.
But mortgages are longer-term securities and are much more correlated with longer-term bonds like the 10-year and 30-year Treasury.
And those yields have actually been rising since the Fed cut rates, with the 10-year yield moving from 3.63% up to 4.09%.
What’s driving that move?
Rising inflation expectations, with 10-year breakevens moving up to 2.33% from a low of 2.02% before the Fed cut rates.

The market seems to be saying that the Fed rate cuts will stimulate the economy and lead to higher prices over the next 10 years. And long-term bond investors are demanding a higher yield in return.
What will happen to mortgage rates if the Fed cuts rates another 150 bps as currently expected?
That will depend on what happens with inflation expectations, longer-term Treasury yields, and the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury rates.
It will also depend on whether the Fed decides to start buying mortgage bonds again, something they haven’t been doing since April 2022.


3. NVIDIA at Previous Highs


4. XLG 50 Largest Stocks New Highs


5. Cybersecurity ETF New Highs

Foreign investors increased their purchases of Japanese stocks in the week ended Oct. 5, as the yen weakened following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s dovish remarks, boosting appetite for local exporters.  Foreigners acquired Japanese stocks worth 919.3 billion yen ($6.16 billion) on a net basis during the week, according to Finance Ministry data, in their largest weekly net purchase since April 13


6. DJT Trump Media Making Run at 200 Day…The Binary Event Stock of 2024


7. New Investors to Venture Capital

In 2023, 15,303 unique investors participated in at least one VC deal in the US. But this year, that figure has dropped to 11,425 investors, according to the Q3 2024 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor.

Startup investor ranks have fallen another 25%—can they come back to life? – PitchBook


8. $16B Spent on Election Cycle


9. Data Centers Share of Total Power Consumption


10. 4 Reasons Why You Wake Up Feeling Tired

Psychology Today
Waking up sleepy is only partly your fault. Gary L. Wenk, Ph.D.
Key points

  • Getting a good night’s sleep requires a balance of internal and external factors.
  • Internal factors include the role of diet and alterations in brain chemistry.
  • External factors include the environment, circadian rhythms, and sleeping partners.

The alarm rings, you awaken, and you are still drowsy. Why? Being sleepy in the morning does not make any sense; after all, you have just been asleep for the past eight hours. Shouldn’t you wake up refreshed, aroused, and attentive? No, and there are a series of ways to explain why.
The neurobiological answer
During the previous few hours before waking in the morning, you have spent most of your time in REM sleep, dreaming. Your brain was very active during dreaming and quickly consumed large quantities of the energy molecule ATP. The “A” in ATP stands for adenosine. The production and release of adenosine in your brain is linked to metabolic activity while you are sleeping. There is a direct correlation between increasing levels of adenosine in your brain and increasing levels of drowsiness. Why? Adenosine is a neurotransmitter that inhibits, i.e., turns off, the activity of neurons responsible for making you aroused and attentive. You wake up drowsy because of the adenosine debris that collected within your brain while you were dreaming. The only known cure for too much adenosine is coffee.
Who did you sleep with last night?
Couples sleeping in pairs were investigated for sleep quality, that is, for the correct balance of non-REM and REM, as well as their own subjective view of how they slept. For women, sharing a bed with a man had a negative effect on sleep quality. However, having sex prior to sleeping mitigated the woman’s negative subjective report, without changing the objective results—that is, her balance of non-REM and REM was still abnormal. In contrast, the sleep efficiency of the men was not reduced by the presence of a female partner, regardless of whether they had sexual contact. In contrast to the women, the men’s subjective assessments of sleep quality were lower when sleeping alone. Thus, men benefit by sleeping with women; women do not benefit from sleeping with men, unless sexual contact precedes sleep—and then their sleep still suffers for doing so.
Did you go to bed late last night?
Too many people go to bed too late on too many nights. The reason is that going to bed later just feels better; in addition, we tend to fall asleep faster if we delay going to bed. Going to bed one hour later every night is easier than going to bed one hour earlier. Why? Because humans evolved an endogenous biological clock that is set for 25 hours while we live in a world that functions on a strict 24-hour cycle. This means that it is always easier to go to bed one hour later. People who prefer to stay out late (evening types) get up at a later time and perform best, both mentally and physically, in the late afternoon or evening. Unfortunately, evening-type individuals were also significantly more likely to suffer from poor sleep quality, daytime dysfunction, and sleep-related anxiety as compared with morning-type individuals. Even more disconcerting is that late bedtime is associated with decreased hippocampal volume in young healthy subjects. Shrinkage of the hippocampus has been associated with impaired learning and memory abilities.
Did you go to bed hungry last night?
What you eat before bedtime also might improve your chances of getting a good night’s sleep. A recent study suggests that eating something sweet might help induce drowsiness. Elevated blood sugar levels have been shown to increase the activity of neurons that promote sleep. These neurons live in a region of the brain that lacks a blood-brain barrier; thus, when they sense the presence of sugar in the blood they make you feel drowsy. This might explain why we feel like taking a nap after eating a large meal. This is just one more bit of evidence demonstrating your brain’s significant requirement for sugar in order to maintain normal function.
Getting a good night’s sleep is not always easy for most people. With aging, normal sleep rhythms become increasingly disrupted leading to daytime sleepiness. Scientists have determined that we sleep best at puberty; then, sleep quality declines with age.
What if you do not get enough sleep?
Although scientists have not discovered why we sleep, they have discovered that we need between six and eight hours every night. Not getting enough sleep makes us more likely to pick fights and focus on negative memories and feelings. The emotional volatility is possibly due to the impaired ability of the frontal lobes to maintain control over our emotional limbic system. We also become less able to follow conversations and more likely to lose focus during those conversations. Sleep deprivation impairs memory storage and also makes it more likely that we will “remember” events that did not actually occur. Extreme sleep deprivation also may lead to impaired decision-making and possibly visual hallucinations. Not getting enough sleep on a consistent basis places you at risk of developing autoimmune disorders, cancer, metabolic syndrome, and depression. Why? Some recent studies have reported that sleep is important for purging the brain of abnormal, and possibly toxic, proteins that can accumulate and increase the probability of developing dementia in old age.
Whatever you are doing right now, stop and go take a nap. Preferably alone.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/your-brain-on-food/202410/4-reasons-why-you-wake-up-feeling-tired

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 11, 2024

1. Software ETF New Highs


2. Micro Cap Stock ETF Still 21% Below Highs


3. Bonds and Gold Performance During Stock Crashes

Jack Ablin Cresset

https://cressetpartners.com/


4. Warren Buffett Deepens Association with Japan’s Capital Markets

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading
JAPAN BUYERS
– Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has raised 281.8 billion yen ($1.9 billion) in a yen-denominated bond offer, a move analysts say lays the ground for the U.S investment company to increase its exposure to Japanese assets.  The deal was the largest bond sale in the Japanese currency for the firm in five years, a term sheet reviewed by Reuters on Thursday showed.  The yen, or Samurai, bond issue signals Buffett’s deepening association with Japan’s capital markets after its equity stake buys in the nation’s top five trading houses over the past four years.

Foreign investors increased their purchases of Japanese stocks in the week ended Oct. 5, as the yen weakened following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s dovish remarks, boosting appetite for local exporters.  Foreigners acquired Japanese stocks worth 919.3 billion yen ($6.16 billion) on a net basis during the week, according to Finance Ministry data, in their largest weekly net purchase since April 13


5. Trump Media +50% in 5 Days


6. STAX -Schwab Activity Index-New (2019) Sentiment Index

Bespoke-Traders Much Less Enthusiastic Now Versus 2021 
This week we got an update from the Schwab Trading Activity Index, also called the STAX.  We initially covered this data in Tuesday’s Closer for subscribers, but we also wanted to highlight it here on Think BIG.  Whereas most investor sentiment readings like the AAII survey directly ask investors how they feel about the market, indicators like the STAX are derived by measuring what retail investors are actually doing in their accounts.  In September, Schwab’s Trading Activity Index fell to 47.1, which is the lowest reading since January.  That drop occurred even though the stock market continued to rally to new all-time highs.

The STAX data dates back to 2019, and as shown below, the index surged in late 2020 through late 2021 during the first post-COVID bull market when Americans were flush with stimulus cash and were actively bidding up pretty much everything that traded!  At the time, the STAX index saw record highs with readings above 75 in June and November 2021.  November 2021 was ultimately the peak for growth stocks before the bear market of 2022.

Notably, there’s a big difference between the STAX reading now versus 2021.  The stock market is currently up 60%+ off the late 2022 lows and has registered 44 all-time highs already this year. Similarly, the market was also making a new high after a new high back in 2021. During this year’s rally, though, the STAX has remained quite subdued compared to going gangbusters in 2021.  This tells us that there’s less complacency, enthusiasm, and overall interest in the market right now versus 2021 levels, which is good if you’re a long-term bull.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/traders-much-less-enthusiastic-now-versus-2021


7. One of Druckenmiller’s Buys was KMI Kinder Morgan…..Making a Run at 2014 Highs


8. Foreign Central Banks Buying Up 30 Y Treasury Auction

Zerohedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stunning-foreign-demand-strongest-30-year-auction-record


9. Where are Populations Growing?

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-top-10-countries-driving-future-population-growth


10. Everything costs -Seth’s Blog

But not all costs are the same.

There are three kinds of costs that people get confused about, but understanding them, really understanding them–in your bones–unlocks opportunity.

Opportunity cost: If you eat the cupcakes, you can’t also eat the brownies. Every time we choose to do something, we’re choosing not to do something else.

Sunk costs: If you’ve invested time or money in something (a law degree, a piece of real estate, a bag of chips) that money is gone. All you have left is what you bought, and that is a gift… a gift from your former self. You don’t have to accept the gift if it’s no longer useful to you. Using a gift still has real opportunity cost, and if it’s keeping you from doing something better, walk away.

Marginal cost: How much extra does this decision cost? For a subscriber, the marginal cost of watching one more show on Netflix is zero. The service costs the same regardless of how many shows you watch. On the other hand, the marginal cost of a tuna sandwich is equal to what it costs to replace the ingredients. It makes sense to prefer things with a lower marginal cost if everything else is similar.

I’ve never encountered a person who was fully rational in making decisions on any of these three sorts of costs. That’s okay. But let’s do it on purpose. 

https://seths.blog/