1. American House of Reps Families Trade Like Hedge Funds During Liberation Day Volatility

DAY TRADERS– As markets tanked in the wake of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in early April, members of Congress and their families made hundreds of stock trades, shining a spotlight on a controversial practice that some lawmakers have pushed to ban.  From April 2, when Trump launched sweeping tariffs to April 8, the day before he paused many of them, more than a dozen House lawmakers and their family members made more than 700 stock trades, according to a WSJ analysis.  The trading took place during one of the wildest stretches for global financial markets of the past decade. The S&P 500 tanked more than 4.5% for two consecutive sessions shortly after Liberation Day and recorded the biggest fall since the March 2020 market crash. More than $6 trillion in market value vanished.

Dave Lutz Jones Trading

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2. Earnings Estimates Moving Higher

SPX NTM EPS. “S&P 500 forward EPS estimate hits a fresh all-time high. $280.”

Edward Jones via @mikezaccardi

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3. IWM Small Cap ETF Right Below 200-Day

StockCharts

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4. IWC Micro-Cap ETF Closes Above 200-Day

StockCharts

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5. Apple Still -20% Off Highs

StockCharts

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6. Bonds Market Value vs. Stocks Lowest Since 1960s

Barchart

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7. Gold Chopping Sideways Since April

ZeroHedge

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8. Public Companies Holding Bitcoin

Perplexity

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9. 75% of Companies Have Already Raised Prices in Response to Tariffs, Fed Survey Finds

Via Barron’s: Early signs indicate that many businesses are quickly raising prices for shoppers to cover most of the higher costs from sweeping U.S. tariffs on imported goods.

Among businesses that are facing higher operational costs due to President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, roughly 75% are imparting at least some of the their cost increases on consumers, according to an analysis released Wednesday of the New York Fed’s Regional Business Survey of firms in the New York and Northern New Jersey region.

Almost a third of manufacturers and about 45% of service firms report they have fully passed along all their cost increases due to higher tariff rates, the survey said. Meanwhile, another 45% of manufacturers and a third of service firms said they shifted some—but not all—of the cost increases to consumers.

It’s worth noting, however, that the NY Fed conducted the survey between May 2 and May 9. That was before the Trump administration reduced the tariff rate on goods from China to 30% from 145%—and before the recent court rulings around tariffs at the end of May.

The latest survey results found that firms implemented these price increases fairly rapidly.

“Over half of both manufacturers and service firms said they raised prices within a month of experiencing tariff-related cost increases—many within a day or week,” NY researchers found.

Tariffs have a broad impact, with about 90% of manufacturers and 75% of service firms surveyed reporting that they utilize some form of imported goods.

Manufacturers reported that the average tariff rate they paid as of early May was about 35%. Service firms reported an estimated average tariff rate of 26%. That marks a significant increase for both types of businesses from the rates they reported six months ago.

“Firms’ costs of tariffed goods may not have increased by as much as the tariffs, in part, because importers may have switched towards suppliers in other countries or in the United States; foreign suppliers may also have lowered their prices to help offset the tariffs,” NY Fed researchers noted.

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10. Behind the Curtain-The Scariest AI Reality

Axios

1. Vanguard Growth Fund Right at Previous Highs

StockCharts

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2. Magnificent 7 Volatility vs. Market

The Irrelevant Investor

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3. Sector Performance Year to Date

Bespoke Research

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4. Stablecoin Now Major Holder of U.S. Short-Term Debt

Ritzholz

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5. Stablecoins Risk Stack

Per TBAC’s report:

Stablecoins are digital assets designed to maintain a stable value by pegging their worth to a reserve asset, such as fiat currency (USD). The intended stability of stablecoins has made them a key enabler for payments and as a store of value in on-chain ecosystems.

The graphic below, from its report, shows that some stablecoins are incredibly secure, as they are backed by Treasuries, repo transactions, and money market funds. However, as you move down the list of types of stablecoin, others are supported by riskier assets, algorithms, and smart contracts.

VettaFi

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6. Electricity Generated by Solar Uptrend…But Stocks No Rally

Wolf Street

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7. Top 10 States by Defense Spending

ZeroHedge

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8. Ranking Sovereign Wealth Funds

CRE Analyst

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9. First Time More Babies Born to Moms 40-44 vs. Teens

Eric Finnigan

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10. What’s the Safest Sunscreen for Your Body

Via Mark Hyman, Co-Founder & Chief Medical Officer of Function Health

Right now, plenty of people are rethinking their sunscreen—not because they don’t believe in sun protection, but because they’re uneasy about what’s in the bottle.

Some of the chemical ingredients commonly used to block UV rays—like oxybenzone—have been linked to hormone disruption or skin irritation. Others haven’t been studied as thoroughly as you might expect, especially given how often we use them.

If you’re looking for something safer for your body (and your family), we’ve got you covered. In this article, the Hyman Health team shares the sun protection products we actually keep in our own beach bags—go-to picks made with ingredients you can feel good about.

Why Some Sunscreens Raise Concerns

If you’ve ever flipped over a sunscreen bottle and wondered what those long ingredient names actually mean, you’re not alone. Some of the most common chemical filters have raised red flags for their potential effects on human health and the environment.

Here are a few you may want to avoid:

Oxybenzone and octinoxate: linked to hormone disruption and banned in some locations for harming coral reefs

Homosalate: under review for safety due to potential endocrine-disrupting effects

Octocrylene: can break down into benzophenone, a possible carcinogen

One thing to keep in mind: The biggest concern with these ingredients isn’t occasional use on a beach vacation or a quick swipe on your nose. It’s about cumulative exposure—using them regularly, over large areas of the body, often without realizing what’s in the product.

If you’re in a pinch, and the only sunscreen available contains one of these ingredients, it’s still better than getting burned. But when you have options, choosing a cleaner formula is a simple way to lower your overall exposure.

If you’re curious about the research behind these concerns—or want to know how antioxidants from food can strengthen your skin’s natural defenses—check out our full guide to sunscreen safety.

How to Choose a Safer Sunscreen

When it comes to sunscreen, mineral-based formulas are generally your best bet.

Unlike chemical sunscreens, which absorb UV rays and can include ingredients linked to hormone disruption, mineral sunscreens use physical blockers—usually zinc oxide—to sit on top of the skin and reflect UV light.

They start working immediately, are less likely to irritate sensitive skin, and don’t absorb into the bloodstream the way some chemical filters can.

Look for sunscreens that use non-nano zinc oxide, which refers to particle size. Non-nano particles are larger and less likely to be absorbed through the skin, making them a safer choice for both people and the environment.

If you’re trying to figure out whether your sunscreen makes the cut, check out the Environmental Working Group’s (EWG) Guide to Sunscreens. You can search by brand, see how your current product rates, and explore safer options that meet EWG’s strict criteria for ingredient safety and UV protection.

Here are three Hyman Health staff favorites:

• Annmarie Gianni Sun Love Natural Sunscreen SPF 20 This all-natural, mineral-based sunscreen isn’t rated by EWG, but it’s a team favorite for everyday use. It uses non-nano zinc oxide for broad-spectrum protection and includes antioxidant-rich botanicals. Sunflower seed oil adds hydration and helps support the skin barrier—especially helpful if you’re applying daily. Learn more.
• Badger Sport Mineral Sunscreen Cream SPF 40 A reliable, water-resistant mineral sunscreen that’s earned a top rating from the EWG. It features non-nano zinc oxide as the active ingredient and keeps the rest of the formula simple: just a few clean ingredients to nourish the skin while you’re out in the sun. Learn more.
• Sunly Kids Mineral Sunscreen Face Stick SPF 30 This EWG Verified™ sunscreen stick is a convenient, mess-free option for kids. (They also have an adult version.) It uses non-nano zinc oxide for broad-spectrum protection and glides on easily without leaving a heavy residue. The formula is fragrance-free, gentle on sensitive skin, and made with moisturizing ingredients. Learn more.

What about Sunblock Sprays?

If you’ve checked the Environmental Working Group (EWG) sunscreen guide, you might’ve noticed that no spray sunblocks or sunscreens score better than a 3 on their 1–10 hazard scale (where 1 is the safest and 10 is the most concerning).

A 3 isn’t terrible—it often means the ingredients themselves are relatively safe. But even mineral-based sprays that use zinc oxide or titanium dioxide fall short for one big reason: inhalation risk.

When sprayed into the air, small particles can become airborne and enter the lungs, where they may cause harm—especially over time or in children. That concern is enough to drop the product’s overall safety score, even if what’s on your skin is relatively clean.

Sprays also raise another issue: uneven coverage. It’s easy to miss spots or apply too lightly, especially on windy days or when you’re in a hurry. What looks like a fine mist doesn’t always translate to full protection.

If you still prefer a spray, just know the tradeoffs. To minimize the risks and get better coverage, spray it into your hands first, then apply it like a lotion.

1. Most Bullish Bounce Back from -20% Correction Ever

It’s worth noting how much of a historic run this has been after a 20% drawdown for the S&P 500. It’s on track to have one of the most bullish bounces ever from a 20% drawdown.

Source: Jurrien Timmer  Eric Soda Spilled Coffee Blog https://www.spilledcoffee.co

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2. Here is the Historical Forward Data Behind Above Chart

The NASDAQ 100 is just -2% below its all-time high. It was down -20% just 2 months ago. Historically, sharp rallies like this were bullish.

Zach Goldberg Jefferies

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3. Biggest Volatility Crash in History

Charlie Bilello

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4. AI Adoption Tracker

As for the AI adoption rate, analysts found that as of May, approximately 9.2% of U.S. firms reported using AI in the production of goods or services—up from 7.4% in 4Q24.

ZeroHedge

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5. Palantir Retail Trading Favorite….More Trading Volume than Amazon

Amazon, for example, reported that it employed some 1.556 million people at the end of last year. Palantir’s roster was closer to a very large high school, at just 3,936, meaning that the e-commerce giant employs 395x as many people as Palantir, but its shares are less liquid. Even tech juggernaut Apple has been traded less than Palantir.

Sherwood

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6. Polymarket Recession Odds Sinking

VettaFi

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7. Most of Asia and Europe has Demographic Disasters Coming….Empty Homes

Michael A. Arouet

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8. Foreign Buyers Step Back

NYT: Foreign buyers have long powered South Florida’s condo market, but many are now pulling out because of high interest rates, expensive prices and, more recently, restrictive immigration policies.  The Miami Association of Realtors reports that home sales to foreign buyers dropped to 10 percent of all transactions in the region from August 2023 to July 2024, the lowest level since 2015 and a stark drop from 50 percent in 2018.

The study polled nearly 2,400 real estate agents in South Florida’s Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Martin counties. Foreign buyers were defined as those who were not U.S. citizens and whose primary residence was abroad, as well as U.S. visa holders for at least six months and green card holders for less than two years.

NYT

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9. The Cost of College in U.S. and the Proposed Cutting of Pell Grants

CNBC

CNBC

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10. Focus Requires Subtraction

Via FS:Most people are too loyal to their distractions to ever meet their destiny.

The courage isn’t in taking on more, it’s in cutting off everything that doesn’t feed your goal.

Focus requires subtraction.

1. Not the Sign of a Top…AAII Bull/Bear Sentiment Survey Just Had 15 Straight Weeks of Negative Readings…5^th Longest Streak Ever.  Historically Bullish

What is AAII Sentiment Survey?

Dorsey Wright Nasdaq

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2. Not the Sign of a Top…Margin Debt Skyrockets Near Tops in Markets…Going Down in 2025

YCharts

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3. Not the Sign of a Top…Investors Bought the Dip Now Selling Rally

Macro Charts

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4. MAG 7 Spending Huge of AI Capex Sending Free Cash Flow (FCF) Down

Equities: Excluding NVIDIA, the Magnificent 7’s year-over-year free cash flow growth has turned negative. The sharp rebound in 2023 was driven by cost-cutting and headcount reductions following the “metaverse” bloat, but that tailwind has faded as AI-driven CapEx ramps up, pressuring cash flows once more.

Source: @KevRGordon, @StrategasRP Daily Shot Brief

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5. Dollar Chart Turning Back Down…Chart to Watch 2025

StocKCharts

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6. Weak U.S. Dollar Key to International Equities Reversion to Mean Trade

Capital Group

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7. June Bearish Month

Bespoke

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8. The Democratic Republic of Congo Produces 76% of World Cobalt

Markets & Mayhem

Perplexity

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9. Mexico and Canada 40% of US Steel Imports Last Year

Reuters

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10. Ten Science-Based Tools for a More Peaceful Mind

Learn about a few simple strategies for cultivating a peaceful mind.

Key points

• The body’s stress response includes sympathetic nervous system activation and the release of stress hormones.
• A relatively simple way to start calming the mind is by using visualization.
• Research shows spending time in the wilderness, a park, or even your front yard may benefit your well-being.

Via Psychology Today: A peaceful mind may be defined as a state of calmness or tranquility that is free from worry, ruminative thoughts, or other types of busy, frenetic thoughts. Oftentimes, we spend too much time thinking—thinking about what’s to come in the future, what’s happened in the past, or even what’s going on right now. When we do this, we make it difficult for our minds to calm in ways that are good for our well-being (learn more about your well-being with this well-being quiz).

There is much research on how we can decrease our distressing thoughts and calm the body. For example, we know that the body’s stress response includes sympathetic nervous system activation and the release of hormones like cortisol, norepinephrine, and epinephrine (Charmandari, Tsigos, & Chrousos, 2005). All of these make us feel wired, and this makes it difficult to have a peaceful mind. That’s why some of the techniques we’ll discuss below target the body directly. Once we help the body calm down, the mind can more easily follow.

1. Visualization: A relatively simple way to start calming the mind is by using visualization. To try it, simply imagine yourself in a peaceful place. While visualizing yourself in this place, try to look at the world around you. What do you see, hear, and smell? If you can get your mind to imagine you’re in a place that makes you feel peaceful, your brain and body actually react as if you are in that place (Quoidbach, Wood, & Hansenne, 2009).
2. Doing things you enjoy: Sometimes we get stuck in a clouded mind when our lives are dull, stagnant, or uninspiring. That’s why doing things you enjoy may help put your mind at ease. Doing fun things can help stimulate your mind so that when you are relaxing, your mind can fully rest.
3. Going for a swim: Another way to calm the body is to activate the parasympathetic nervous system. Interestingly, immersing the body in cold water helps activate this system (Mourot et al., 2008). So if you’re feeling your mind racing, go for a swim in cold water or even take a cold shower.
4. Getting outside: Perhaps one of the best ways to put your mind at peace is to get outside. Research shows that spending time in the wilderness, a park, or even your front yard may be beneficial for your well-being (Ulrich & Parsons, 1992). The outdoors offers so many different things that can help soothe the mind—fresh air, sunlight, and breathing in the scent of trees are all good for our health. Try to spend at least 15 minutes outside each day.
5. Meditation: Meditation is a commonly used strategy when we want a more peaceful mind. The goal with meditation is to clear the mind of thoughts and just be present, often focusing on the breath.
6. Listening to music: One study showed that listening to peaceful, relaxing music can reduce cortisol, a key stress hormone (Khalfa et al., 2003). In particular, binaural beats (i.e., when two tones with slightly different frequencies are played to each ear) seem to be beneficial and can even help improve performance (Garcia-Argibay, Santed, & Reales, 2019). Given the research, listening to soothing music may be another simple way to put the mind at peace.
7. Practicing yoga: Yoga can actually reduce cortisol, a key stress hormone (Thirthalli et al., 2013). It’s not entirely clear why, but it might be because yoga involves deep breathing and concentration that prevents us from ruminating on our worries. Doing yoga regularly can be a great way to create a more peaceful mind and a healthier body.
8. Using mantras: Using mantras may be another way to create a more peaceful mind. Mantras are types of chanting that are often used as part of Eastern meditation techniques. Early research suggested that mantras may be beneficial for well-being. Studies show that mantras can result in short-term decreases in stress and depression (Wolf & Abell, 2003).
9. Using massage: Massage is another technique that may be helpful. One study showed that 10, 30-minute massages over five weeks led to a lower cortisol response (Field, 2005). Soothing physical touch does indeed seem to relax us. Whether it’s human-to-human interaction or getting aches and pains out of our bodies, massage can be a useful trick for calming the mind and body.
10. Deep breathing: Deep, controlled breathing has been shown to activate the parasympathetic nervous system. This system is key in helping us de-stress, and it is the counterbalance to the sympathetic nervous system—our fight or flight system. Deep breathing also can quickly reduce anxiety and promote a greater sense of calm (Zope & Zope, 2013). By taking a few deep breaths, we begin to tell our body that things are safe, and the systems that are overactive can begin to mellow.

1. Mag 7 Deliver on Earnings Growth

Mag 7 EPS growth. The Mag 7 reported YoY earnings growth of 27.7% in Q1, nearly 3x that of the Other 493.

Factset via The Daily Chartbook

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2. U.S. vs. China AI Investment

Semafor

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3. Equities: US Earnings Revisions have Rebounded more Quickly Than Those in the Rest of the World

Source: UBS Research; @WallStJesus via Daily Shot Brief

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4. URA Uranium Chart Breakout

StockCharts

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5. CEG Deal with META…Breakout to New Highs

StockCharts

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6. Japanese Stocks Sold

Japanese equity funds logged their largest weekly outflows in nearly 18 years in the week to May 28, as investors either booked profits following a rally fueled by the then-easing U.S.-China trade tensions or turned cautious on earnings potential.  According to LSEG Lipper data, Japanese equity funds recorded net outflows of $7.49 billion, marking the largest weekly withdrawal since July 4, 2007.  Some of the flows could also be due to rebalancing by Japan’s massive life insurance and pension firms as they sell rising stocks and buy bonds to maintain asset ratios, analysts said.  Another headwind has been the yen, which has appreciated 10% against the U.S. dollar so far this year, potentially eroding export profitability. LSEG data shows analysts have downgraded forward 12-month earnings estimates for Japanese firms by 1.8% over the past 30 days.

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading

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7. U.S. Direct Lending Fundraising Record

Consider an estimate of the future performance of business-development companies. These are listed funds that raise public equity to invest in private loans. Back in 2021, the average BDC’s annualized return on equity was 14.9%, according to figures from a recent letter by Easterly to shareholders of Sixth Street Specialty Lending. But in the letter, Easterly estimated that at the level of base rates expected by the market over three years, plus typical spreads for loans in the fourth quarter of 2024, the forward return on equity for a BDC would be 5.2%.“At these spreads, the sector is not earning its…cost of equity,” he wrote.

WSJ

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8. Office Delinquency Rate Spikes Back to New Highs

Wolf Street

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9. 10 Million Driverless Rides

Morning Brew

Now that Uber and its ilk have made the luxury of a personal driver like Miss Daisy’s available to the masses, the next big thing is starting to gain popularity: not having a driver at all.

Alphabet-owned Waymo recently surpassed 10 million paid driverless rides, and is poised to see 20+ million by the end of the year, the Wall Street Journal reports. And that’s with the self-driving taxis only available in a handful of cities, including tech’s spiritual home of San Francisco. Its rise has been rapid as people in those cities stopped seeing cars with no one in the driver’s seat as a threat and started seeing them as a convenient way to get around. Per the WSJ:

That means riders beyond early adopters are now willing to hop in a driverless cab. A recent viral post on X suggested that data firm YipitData showed Waymo going from 0% to 27% of San Francisco ride shares between August 2024 and April 2025. Bloomberg reported in April that the same data firm found 20% of Uber rides in Austin during the last week in March were Waymo rides, just weeks after a partnership between the two companies rolled out there.

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10. Which Inbox?-Seth’s Blog

It’s easier than ever to fall into an inbox mindset. There are things to do, and we do them.

Inbox zero is the unattainable goal that fills our days.

But it avoids the real question, which is: which inbox are we emptying?

There’s the inbox of urgent texts. Or the inbox of slightly less urgent emails. Or the inbox filled with spam, perhaps hundreds of thousands of emails that aren’t really an inbox.

But what about the inbox of our financial planning? Or the inbox of the people we care about, who might appreciate a hug or a wave?

There’s the inbox of the chronic degeneration of our house or our community or our climate, the one that will respond really well to attention now, not nearly as well later.

And there’s the inbox of peace of mind, the healing and regeneration that happens when we set the other inboxes aside for a bit.